*The blog will remain in severe weather mode for one more night due to all of the action from today.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The severe weather threat is winding down across the area, though some additional activity is possible for the next few hours mainly for Acadiana and Central Louisiana. There are currently no watches or warnings in effect across the forecast area. We virtually escaped this powerful storm system without much in the way of severe weather aside from the tornado near Ville Platte. By far, the worst of the weather this afternoon and tonight has been across North Louisiana and NE Texas. Off and on showers and occasional thunderstorms along with areas of fog and unseasonable warmth was the weather story across the forecast area on this Wednesday. Overcast conditions prevailed throughout the day, and fog persisted in marine areas all day as a warm front moved inland ahead of the advancing Pacific system and associated trough. Temperatures were right on track from last night's forecast package reaching the lower 70s. Gusty Southerly winds prevailed through the day as a strong left-front quadrant of the Subtropical Jet Stream set up right across the area. The trough and weak cold is essentially right over the Lake Charles area as of this writing, and will continue making good headway Eastward tonight. It should clear the entire forecast area by 3a.m. or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely until its passage, and fog will be an issue as well mainly near marine zones. The fog will scour out before sunrise. Drier air will begin to infiltrate the forecast area after midnight, and skies will clear overnight. By sunrise Thursday, it will be slightly cooler than it was on Wednesday morning with readings in the mid 50s or so. This is still above for mid-late January.
In the wake of this Pacific system, high pressure builds into the area for Thursday and Friday. Benign weather is expected each day. Lots of sunshine is expected with pleasantly warm conditions. Thursday highs should easily reach the 70-75 range, and the atmosphere will dry out through the day. High pressure settles right overhead by Thursday night, and this will provide perfect conditions for radiational cooling as winds go near calm. Skies should be clear and with low dew points in the 40s, temperatures should have no problem falling into the 40s as we head into Friday morning. Gulf moisture will slowly begin to return by Friday afternoon as the Pacific high pressure moves East of the Mississippi, engendering a low-level Gulf flow at that time. A beautiful sunny day is expected for our Friday. Max temperatures will be above normal once again, so it will be a nice taste of spring as highs reach the lower 70s. The Southerly flow becomes more pronounced Friday Night as the system which is currently pounding Southern California with flooding and mudslides and record rainfall moves out of the lee of the Rockies. Clouds will begin to return overnight, and fog could be an issue as well with plenty of low-level moisture in place and the temperature differential between land and water. Minimum temperatures will be a bit warmer as well back into the lower 50s. This is about 10 degrees above normal.
Rain chances return to the forecast on Saturday afternoon and evening as the next potent Pacific storm moves across the country. While there should be a sufficient enough moisture return to generate some shower and thunderstorm activity later in the day. However, the main Jet and dynamics with this second system should bypass our area, thus, no severe weather threat is forecast at this point. I will get more specific with storm number 2 tomorrow when we'll have tonight's system safely behind us. Saturday should start dry with just clouds and fog. Some peaks of sun can't be ruled out in the morning, but as we go through the day certainly clouds will lower and thicken. Showers and thunderstorms will break out over Texas Saturday morning, and traverse Eastward as the front advances through the day. This rain threat should be highest between the hours of 3p.m. and 9p.m. It should be another quick mover, and I expect that most locations will see less than an inch of rain. It will remain warm and humid ahead of the front on Saturday as well with highs in the 70s once again. Winds will be a factor as well, as the strong STJ continues to be the driving force for our weather. However, as mentioned earlier, this time the jet dynamics should be absent across the area with the strongest winds displaced from SW Louisiana and SE Texas. Conditions will quickly improve overnight Saturday into Sunday, and unlike its predecessor there will be a more significant cool down behind this system. The cooler and drier air filters in behind the boundary Saturday evening, and temperatures by Sunday morning will be in the upper 40s.
The second half of the week will certainly take the prize this weekend, just like last weekend! A stronger area of high pressure, and increased CAA takes over behind the Saturday cold front. Therefore, the 70s will be erased, and replaced with more seasonable temperatures Sunday. Sunny skies will prevail as the strong high dominated the weather across our Nation's mid-section. The will seal off the Gulf for a few days anyway, and the refreshing Northerly winds will provide for very dry and pretty weather through early next week. Sunday highs will be in the lower to middle 60s, a few categories cooler than that of Saturday. This will be great weather or any outdoor activities after church. It looks like great weather if you want to have a party for the Saints game or whatever. We will be reminded that it is still winter by Monday morning as morning lows fall into the 30s for the first time in a week. The controlling high pressure will continue to be orientated such that it will continually pull down a mix of Canadian and Polar air. After the cold start Monday, temperatures will remain a bit on the nippy side in here.Afternoon maxes should be in the mid to upper 50s. It is the Monday Night-Tuesday Morning period that should be the coldest period as the high over the Rockies and Great Plains nestled in right over the area forecast. The reminder that it is still winter will be in full force as temperatures bottom out on the mid 30s. Tuesday should be another beautiful day with the high pressure in full force. Skies should remain sunny throughout day despite the return of a low-level flow. Afternoon highs should be right around the normal levels for late January. The active El Nino pattern continues, and another strong system will be approaching by day 7. The return flow will certainly become more pronounced, and clouds will increase on Wednesday. A warming trend will be realized as well. The models insist on the same scenario that we've had this week, where a warm front rides NNE out ahead of the digging and deepening trough. Morning lows for day 7 will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, while afternoon highs are near normal once again. Clouds will certainly be on the increase, but rain chances should remain absent from the forecast for one more day. The atmosphere will likely still be too dry to initiate any rain chances on Wednesday, and a firm cap will be place during the day as the main trigger mechanism and instability remain removed from the forecast area. The next significant chance of rain will affect the area just beyond this forecast period, next Thursday into Friday. A more pronounced warm up is expected, and depending on Jet Stream orientation severe weather may be an issue. Strong WAA could raise temperatures back to near 70 during the afternoon. Beyond this time frame, the active pattern continues with no rest for the weary. The active pattern will continue as the El Nino of 2009-2010 lives on. The overall pattern for temperatures favors below normal for the end of January through the first week of February. Winter is certainly not over, and we will be reminded of this as we get into February. I can hear a line from an old Don McLean song!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 54/73 45/70 50/73 40 0 0 0 0 40
LFT 56/73 44/71 49/73 40 0 0 0 0 40
BPT 55/74 46/72 52/75 40 0 0 0 0 40
AEX 52/72 42/68 47/72 60 0 0 0 0 60
POE 53/72 43/69 48/73 40 0 0 0 0 50
ARA 57/73 47/71 52/73 40 0 0 0 0 40
Tonight...Cloudy with areas of fog and scattered showers and thunderstorms until about midnight. Turning cooler and breezy with skies clearing after midnight. Low 54. SSW wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW 10-15 mph by midnight. Chance of rain 40%.
Thursday...Sunny. High 73. West wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 45. Calim wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 70. NE wind 5-10 mph, becoming East 10 mph in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Clear with Patchy Fog forming. Low 50. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise becoming Mostly Cloudy and Windy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 73. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
1-21-10
Low: 54
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 10
Friday
1-22-10
Low: 45
High: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/E 5-10
Saturday
1-23-10
Low: 50
High: 73
Precip: 40% PM
Wind: SSE 10-15
Sunday
1-24-10
Low: 46
High: 64
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
Monday
1-25-10
Low: 35
High: 56
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
Tuesday
1-27-10
Low: 39
High: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Wednesday
1-28-10
Low: 44
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Dense Fog Advisory.*
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Areas of dense fog. A chance of showers.
Thursday...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning.
Thursday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment