*The coldest weather in 16 years is expected later this week.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The first forecast discussion of the new year is going to resemble one that you would expect to see somewhere up North. The first Sunday of 2010 was a quiet one, but on the cold side. The day started with lots of sunshine and temperatures around freezing. Mid and high-level clouds moved in during the afternoon in advance of our next cold front. Temperatures remained well below freezing with highs only around 50. It is quite chilly and generally cloudy across the area tonight as yet another Arctic front is in transit. No precipitation is expected with this front. The closest precipitation at this hour is in the form of light snow over much of Arkansas. The clouds should hold firm overnight with Mostly Cloudy skies and temperatures will drop to near freezing again. Monday morning minimums will range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. The coldest locations will be up around Alexandria and Fort Polk as usual, and over Acadiana where there are still some holes in the clouds. I suppose a renegade sprinkle or two is possible overnight, but for the most part it will remain dry as the cold front approaches, and the main disturbance ahead of the front slides by to our North.
The benign weather we've had to start 2010 will roll over into the first full work week of the new year Monday. It will remain cold, but no precipitation is expected. The Arctic front will move through the region during the morning and into the Gulf waters by afternoon. Continued CAA will keep things on the cold side, and temperatures will remain a far cry from the early January normals. Expect a maximum in the mid to upper 40s. The mid and high level clouds should scour our by afternoon as high pressure builds in, and the disturbance over Arkansas pulls away. Monday night will be one of the coldest nights so far this season with a significant freeze for the entire area. Lows will range from the mid 20s to around 30. Skies will be clear with light winds as the Arctic high will be in complete control. The necessary freeze precautions should be executed on Monday. Quiet and cold weather extends into Tuesday with temperatures not warming up all that much despite plenty of sunshine. Highs should only be in the mid 40s. The Arctic air remains in control Tuesday night with no return flow expected just yet. Arctic air masses generally modify slower than the usual continental air masses. Therefore, expect another freeze on Tuesday night with clear skies in place.
Changes begin to take place on Wednesday. If you pay attention, you can already see what's in the making! Very cold Arctic air is looming over Southern Canada into Northern Minnesota at present. It is -33 F in International Falls, MN. A very strong polar vortex positioned over Hudson Bay will drift West through the next couple of days, and as a result a chunk of the very cold air up to our North will be dislodged. This air will be dislodged Tuesday into Wednesday as a strong high pressure over the NE U.S. finally pushes Eastward into the Atlantic. This will send the extremely cold air mass Southward towards the Gulf coast. The pattern favors a direct transport of this air right into South Louisiana. The cold front that will usher in this cold air mass will be in transit Wednesday, and at this time a return flow will briefly become established. A cold and clear start to the day Wednesday with temperatures in the upper 20s will give away to increasing clouds and modifying temperatures. It won't be warm by any means on Wednesday with highs only topping out near 50. Clouds will increase in earnest in the afternoon as the front approaches, and an embedded short wave in the main flow aloft comes down the pipe as well. This will introduce the first chance of rain for the new year at the mid-week period mainly late in the day. It is the forcing itself that will lead to the chance of rain. No severe weather or even thunderstorms for that matter are expected as the air is very stable. Modification continues Wednesday night with lows above freezing in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region. All precipitation should be liquid at this time. Snow will be likely for the northern portion of the state where the cold air from the first front will remain in place.
The latter half of the work week is where the forecast gets serious. Not so much from the aspect of precipitation, but the cold weather itself, as the Arctic air is dumped over the region beginning Thursday. The relatively warm period from Wednesday afternoon will be short-lived as the front quickly moves through during the morning hours. There's still some timing issues with the front, but I'll fine tune this as we get closer to the event. It should be a morning passage, however. I don't expect temperatures to warm up very much o Thursday. Any warming will occur in the morning ahead of the front, because once the front passes temperatures will tumble. I am forecasting a very generous maximum in the mid 40s at this juncture. Rain will continue for the morning hours as the front works in, and SE traveling disturbances rounds the base of the deep trough as well. There is some indication that precipitation will linger through much of Thursday as a period of overrunning occurs. If this were to occur, then we would see a transition from rain to sleet to snow by Thursday afternoon before the precipitation ends. Confidence is increasing in this scenario, and I will mention this possibility at this time, but it will be a quick shot of frozen precipitation if any at all, so I don't expect much accumulation. Again, this is something that will be edited as we go through the week and we see how things progress. As is so often the case when colder air is involved around these parts, the precipitation almost always ends before the coldest air arrive, and that could be the case this time as well, although I am hanging out to the slight possibility of frozen precipitation at this time. Mixed precip or not, the cold weather will be the story come Thursday. Temperatures will plummet behind the front Thursday afternoon falling from the mid 40s to near 30 by evening. Winds will be an issue as well with NNW winds 20-30 mph at times Thursday afternoon. This will likely produce very dangerous wind chills across the area. Wind chill readings should drop into the 10-15 range by Thursday afternoon. Skies will clear late Thursday into Thursday night as the very strong Arctic high builds in. Most Arctic air masses we experience here in SW Louisiana generally modify a great deal on their way down, but this time modification will be very limited due to the large snow pack in place. By the time the coldest air reaches us, there could be a snow pack all the way down into Northern Louisiana.
The coldest weather in 16 years (February, 1996) is anticipated to build in behind this front. Hard freeze conditions and a prolonged freeze are expected at the end of the week. Temperatures fall below freezing Thursday afternoon, and will likely remain there through much of the weekend. Friday morning low temperatures will be into record territory with readings in the 15-20 range. Hard freeze conditions will be experienced all the way to the coast. This kind of freeze will cause problems for exposed pipes as well as the pets and plants. You should check the anti-freeze in your car as well to prevent it from freezing since we're not used to temperatures this cold. You will want to dress in multiple layers to protect yourself from frostbite, and also make sure you have adequate heating in your home. This freeze will kill virtually all vegetation, and many plants and the grass will look like it's been hit with a blow torch by next week. Friday morning will be brutal to say the least! The vicious Arctic winds will continue as the strong 1052 mb. high over the Great Plains continuing moving SE. With temperatures expected to be in the 10s, wind chills will be even colder possibly below 0 at times. Friday will be a deceptively nice day with lots of sunshine, but it will be so cold, it'll be hard to enjoy it! High temperatures will be well what the normal low ought to be this time of year. Most locations will not get above freezing Friday with highs ranging from the upper 20s to right around freezing. The winds will slowly diminish during the day, but still be quite strong keeping wind chills below 15 all day. It is conceivable that Friday night will be colder than Thursday night as winds go near calm with the Arctic high settling over the Deep South. 10s are a good bet once again across the area, with readings possibly a degree or two colder than Thursday night. It will surely be down into record territory once again. It is possible that Northern portions of the state will get into the single digits with this cold outbreak.
Little if any modification is expected as we start the weekend with record cold again on Saturday morning. It will be deceptively nice once again on Saturday with clear skies, but temperatures will once again only reach the low 30s at best. The Arctic high will only slowly drift East through Saturday. The air mass finally begins the moderation process late Saturday into Sunday as the high makes it East of the Mississippi. The clear skies will continue. Saturday night temperatures will be somewhat warmer with 10s possible once again North of I-10 and mid 20s along the coast. Air mass modification increases Sunday as the influences of the Gulf take effect. The temperature should finally get above freezing once again for all areas by Sunday afternoon. It'll still be cold, but at least by then the thawing out process can begin. Sunday maxes should reach the low to mid 40s under sunny skies. Sounds like a good weekend to stay inside where its warm, and watch the NFL Playoffs!!! This will be the first big weather event of 2010. Beyond the forecast period, modification continues next week with lows returning to above freezing, and highs returning close to normal. Only time will tell if the moderating trend will continue or if there'll be another deep freeze down the road. Stay tuned for more ont he ramifications of this cold blast, and begin making preparations now!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 31/46 27/44 29/47 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 29/46 25/43 28/46 0 0 0 0 0 30
BPT 32/47 28/45 30/49 0 0 0 0 0 40
AEX 27/43 23/40 26/42 0 0 0 0 0 40
POE 27/43 23/41 26/43 0 0 0 0 0 40
ARA 30/46 26/44 30/48 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy and Cold. Low 31. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Mostly Cloudy early, then becoming Mostly Sunny. Cold. High 46. NNW wind 10-15 mph. Wind chill readings 25-35.
Monday Night...Clear and Cold with a hard freeze possible. Low 27. North wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Sunny and Cold. High 44. North wind 10-15 mph. Wind chill 20-30.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 29. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny early. Clouds increasing during the day with a 30% chance of showers late. Cold. High 47. NE wind becoming SE 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Monday
1-4-10
Low: 31
High: 46
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35
Tuesday
1-5-10
Low: 27
High: 44
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 20-30
Wednesday
1-6-10
Low: 29
High: 47
Precip: 30% Late PM
Wind: NE/SE 10
W.C.: 25-35
Thursday
1-7-10
Low: 36
High: 40
Falling to 30
Precip: 60% Rain/Sleet Mix before ending
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-30
W.C.: 10-30
Friday
1-8-10
Very Cold, Record Low
Low: 18
High: 30
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 0-10
Saturday
1-9-10
Very Cold, Record Low
Low: 16
High: 32
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 5-15
Sunday
1-10-10
Warmer, but Still Cold
Low: 21
High: 42
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
W.C.: 15-30
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday...North winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Monday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Tuesday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain.
The blog returns to normal format tomorrow!
Happy New Year, Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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