Who Dat? Who Dat! Who Dat Say Dey Gonna Beat Dem Saints??? Congratulations New Orleans Saints...2009-10 NFC Champions...Good Luck in your First ever Super Bowl against the Colts!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...January 2010 has been a roller coaster, and that trend will continue this week as we close out the month. Today was a perfect January day, a perfect day for any month. It was about as beautiful as it ever gets in SW Louisiana with crystal clear skies, very low humidity, and pleasantly mild temperatures. It was a cold start with temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. High pressure was firmly in control and a fast warm up occurred with the dry air in place. High temperatures reached the mid to upper 60s, which is several degrees normal for this time of year. The ridge of high pressure is only slowly sliding Eastward tonight. Tonight will be another night of near perfect radiational cooling conditions with calm winds and clear skies. The high pressure will keep the weather quiet across the area tonight. Temperatures will be similar to that of last night with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A light return flow may commence overnight across portions of the area, but overall virtually no wind is expected overnight. Count the stars tonight!
Some changes take shape on Wednesday. It should start out as another beautiful day with the cool morning start. However, a return flow will become more pronounced during the day. Clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon as moisture content increases across the area. This is all in response to our next storm system which is taking shape over the Rockies tonight. A cold front and associated surface low will develop late Wednesday night over West Texas as the system amplifies and its trough sharpens as it rotates Eastward out of the Rockies. Pleasantly mild temperatures are expected for Wednesday as well with maximums in the mid to upper 60s. It could be a few degrees cooler on Wednesday, especially for Southern portions of the forecast area because of the return flow. In all, Wednesday should be another nice late January day. Cloud cover becomes the dominant weather feature by Wednesday night with a more pronounced return flow. The return flow will also produce a significant moderation in temperatures, and overnight lows should warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s. The return flow will be strengthening as the pressure gradient between systems tightens.
It will take it awhile, but the next weather maker will affect the region beginning late Thursday. Cloud cover will certainly be present to start the day, but there could be some fog as well with the more pronounced low-level flow. The anticyclone will be over the SE U.S. by this time. There will be a deepening (strengthening) low pressure traversing the Red River Valley. This will continue to aid in increasing moisture levels across the forecast area. Most of the day Thursday should be dry and mild with breezy south winds throughout the day. Of course, as has been the case all season, the El Nino pattern will energize the usual elements involved in this pattern. Rain chances enter the forecast Thursday afternoon as some return flow showers could develop in the afternoon, but by far most of the rain will wait until Thursday night. This, is the main system moves across the area. Another component to this storm will take effect late Thursday as Gulf cylcogensis occurs. This low will help to overspread rainfall across the forecast area. All ingredients should be in place for a heavy rain event with rainfall totals on the order of 2-4" across the area. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. though there are certainly some parameters in place that could lead to an isolated severe cell or two in the Thursday night/Friday morning period. A further assessment of this situation will determine specific logistics in later forecasts. Confidence is certainly high enough at this time to suggest the aforementioned 2-4" rain amounts, and thunderstorms will also be indicated with the amount of instability in place. The potential for severe weather all hinges on the official track of the surface low, but at this time, I suspect that the low tracks near the coast. This would keep the greatest ingredients for all modes of severe weather over the coastal waters. I believe that the greatest severe threat at this time would be in the form of damaging winds as the pressure gradient continues to tighten across the area, and the low tracks very near the forecast area. Thursday will feature the previously mentioned deteriorating weather conditions, and temperatures will remain on the mild side approaching 70 degrees.
Rain chances will be maxed out for the Thursday night/Friday period. Rain is the easy part of the forecast for this period. The difficulty ensues on Friday. The timing of the front is still a bit uncertain, but best guess right now is sometime Friday morning most likely between 4 and 8a.m. Temperatures will remain mild until frontal passage, and this will mean that the overnight minimums for Friday morning will be realized around midnight with temperatures likely rising in response to WAA until frontal passage. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue as the front approaches, and the Gulf low advances. The front will push through the area in the morning hours of Friday, and temperatures will take a nose dive behind it as very strong CAA takes over. There is plenty of cold air bottled up to our North this week, and we will get in on some of this behind this system. At this time, it appears we will not receive a direct shot of cold Arctic air, but rather a glancing blow. This can certainly change, but all indications are that the coldest air will not visit SW Louisiana. Regardless, we will be reminded that it is still winter by Friday. Temperatures will fall from the lower 50s Friday morning through the 40s during the day. Winds will be an issue as well with the strong front moving through.A wind chill will come into play later in the day as the temperature drops. Rain will continue for much of the day as some overrunning develops behind the front. The rain will continue as long as the low is in close proximity to SW Louisiana. The rain event will transition from a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat early, to just a general rain and eventually light rain and/or drizzle by the afternoon hours. Rain will end late in the day as drier air finally pushes into the mid and upper levels.
There will be some frozen precipitation on the northern edge of this system. However, exactly where the cut off is for rain and snow remains to be seen. It seems unlikely that any frozen precipitation will occur in our forecast area. The northern half of the state will have the chance to see some sleet or snow mix in with the rain before the precip ends Friday, but nothing major is expected. However, our neighbors to the North from Oklahoma across Arkansas into Tennessee and perhaps Northern Mississippi and Alabama will likely see a significant winter storm with significant ice and snow accumulations. The surface low will move Eastward to a position along the Northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Friday evening. The aforementioned rainfall amounts will likely lead to see localized flooding, and the strong winds could create some coastal flooding issues. Otherwise, no additional problems are expected. No mention of any frozen precipitation is cited at this point, though this potential will be monitored in the coming days. You know how I always stress about the difficulty in forecasting cold weather. It will certainly be a day where temperatures are confused with the low occurring before midnight Saturday with temperatures falling through the afternoon hours which would typically be the time of day when the maximum should occur. Any potential for severe weather will end by mid-morning Friday as the front clears the area. Overrunning is a typical occurrence is this set up, and this will certainly occur this time as well. Conditions improve Friday night as Canadian high pressure builds in, and skies clear. An area wide freeze will occur at this time, and this will certainly remind us that yes it is still winter!
High pressure anchored over the area this weekend will provide for a nice weekend across the area. It will be on the chilly side with the glancing blow of Arctic air in place. Saturday morning will be quite windy, so a wind chill will be in place. Morning temperatures should be in the light freeze category with readings as low as the mid 20s in Central Louisiana, and mid 30s along the immediate coast. CAA will continue Saturday, and even with full sunshine it will remain on the cold side. Highs should only reach the mid 40s at best. Wind chills will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s early in the morning, and only in the 30s during the afternoon. Saturday night will be the coldest night this go around as the high pressure makes it closest approach to the area. A freeze should occur for just about the entire area. The immediate coast may escape a freeze, but certainly a frost is expected. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s in the coldest locations to right around freezing at the coast. For Lake Charles proper, upper 20s seem like a good call. A cloud free sky should remain with us for Sunday as the high remains firmly entrenched. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer during the afternoon with highs around 50. You can clearly see we'll transition from above normal to below normal as we close out January.
The active pattern carries over into February. Rain chances return to the forecast late Monday as yet another El Nino system develops and affects the region. Monday morning should once again be on the chilly side with lows in the upper 30s, however, much warmer conditions are on tap for the afternoon as a strong Southerly fetch is established in response to developing low pressure, and a warm front surging Northward from the Gulf as well. Much of the day Monday will remain dry, but certainly clouds and moisture will increase. Rain chances return to the likely category by Monday night and Tuesday as a Western Gulf low forms and moves Eastward. It is too early to say for sure where the low will track, but there is the possibility portions of the area could get into the warm sector with this second system. We'll focus more on this system after Friday's system is a fading memory. Moderating temperatures are expected for the first few days of February with highs getting back into the 60s by Tuesday, while lows return to above normal values in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Beyond this forecast period, overrunning rains may continue as shallow cold air filters into the region behind the Gulf low. This would keep rain chances going for the middle to latter part of next week. Clear and colder weather is slated for Super Bowl weekend if the current models are correct!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 39/67 48/71 55/42 0 0 0 30 100 100
LFT 38/67 47/72 54/44 0 0 0 30 100 100
BPT 41/68 52/73 57/43 0 0 0 40 100 100
AEX 33/65 45/66 49/38 0 0 0 30 100 100
POE 34/65 46/67 50/39 0 0 0 30 100 100
ARA 37/68 48/71 53/44 0 0 0 30 100 100
Tonight...Clear and Cold w/ Patchy Frost. Low 39. Calm wind.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny, becoming Partly Cloudy late. High 67. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy and Warmer. Low 48. SE wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Mostly Cloudy and Breezy w/ a 30% chance of rain late. High 71. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Cloudy and Windy w/ rain and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible at times. Low 55. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.
Friday...Cloudy and Windy w/ rain and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Heavy rainfall possible at times in the morning. Heavy rain threat ending by noon w/ rain becoming light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. 2-4" of rainfall expected for the entire event. Early morning temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, before falling into the lower 40s by evening. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty becoming NNW 20 mph and gusty before noon. Chance of rain 100%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
1-27-10
Low: 39
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Thursday
1-28-10
Low: 48
High: 71
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 10
Friday
1-29-10
Low: 55
High: 42
Precip: 100%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-25
Saturday
1-30-10
Low: 31
High: 46
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20-30
Sunday
1-31-10
Low: 28
High: 52
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-40
Monday
2-1-10
Low: 38
High: 58
Precip: 30%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15
Tuesday
2-2-10
Groundhog Day
Low: 47
High: 62
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Marine Forecast....
Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...North winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.
Good night and God bless! Geaux Saints!
-DM-
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