SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today's forecast was right on track with off and on light, nagging rain and milder temperatures. The string of minimum temperatures of 35 or lower was broken this morning as the morning low at Lake Charles was in the lower 40s. Afternoon highs were near the seasonable norms for mid-January, which is right around 60. A few peaks of sun were noted across the area, more noticeably over Acadiana. The light showers were the result of minor short waves rotating through in the established SW flow aloft. This is out ahead of a more significant rain maker slated for Friday and Saturday. The weather map tonight will show more of the same with periods of light rain and showers across the forecast area from time to time. Nothing overly heavy will occur, and it won't rain all night as these minor perturbations continue. Overnight lows will be above normal in the mid to upper 40s with an Easterly wind around 10 mph.
Gulf cyclogenesis is occurring this evening over the Western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Northern Mexico and Southern Texas. The other component to this rain maker is clearly evident on satellite imagery tonight. This is the form of an upper level low over the Desert SW pushing into New Mexico tonight. This and advancing trough digging SE out of the Rockies have aided in Gulf cyclogenesis. This will all combine to raise rain chances into the likely category for Friday and nearly max them out for Friday night into Saturday. Friday will be similar to today to start out with off and on light rain or showers for the morning hours as more minor short waves rotate out ahead of the main upper level low and surface low. A widespread stratiform rain shield will affect the Gulf waters, and slowly move towards the coastline. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day, and the wind will follow suit in response to a strengthening pressure gradient force across the region with the combination of lows. The forecast area should remain on the cool, stable side of the storm with any threat for severe weather and extreme rainfall remaining over the Gulf waters in the vicinity of the low. The area of stratiform rain will move inland throughout the day, and the highest rain chances will remain across the Southern half of the forecast area. Rain chances will be tempered downward for the Northern half of the forecast area. The heaviest rainfall totals and highest rain chances will come along the coast as per orientation of the Gulf low. The milder temperature regime will be interrupted due to the clouds and rain, with high temperatures just shy of normal in the upper 50s.
The worst of the weather this forecast period comes overnight Friday into Saturday as the lows make their closest approach to the area. The upper level low will be coming across from W to E out of Texas, and the Gulf low will continue its slow NE progression towards the tip of SE Louisiana. The track of the low will again result in low instability over land, and keep any severe threat over the marine area. Some elevated convection is possible late Friday night and Saturday morning as some cold air aloft will be generated by the upper level low. The most likely time for heavy rainfall across the area will come Saturday morning as the lows make their closest approach. This latest coastal storm is less than 24 hours out now, and it certainly appears that we will dodge the heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat. Rainfall totals should be about 1-2" across the Southern half of the forecast area, with up to 1/2" for the Northern half. Lower Acadiana could see amounts in excess of 3" since they will be closer to the aforementioned low. As the low rides NE, and exits stage right Saturday, rain will continue well into the afternoon as wrap-around moisture on the back side of the low continues to produce rainfall across the area. Boundary layer moisture will remain more than adequate, thus the high rain chances continue. After some heavier rain Saturday morning, rainfall should transition back to more a Improvement will finally occur late Saturday into Saturday night as drier air moves in as Pacific high pressure displaces the low pressure and takes control for the remainder of the weekend. The air mass in place for tomorrow and Saturday isn't overly cold, but temperatures will have a hard time surpassing 50 on Saturday with the widespread rain and gusty winds. The winds on the backside of the low will pull down some cooler Great Plains air. CAA dominates during the day Saturday, and temperatures could slowly fall through the day, but it won't be anywhere near as cold as last weekend, and all precip will remain liquid. It will be a great day to stay inside and watch the Saints game! Geaux Saints!!!
Clearing skies occur Saturday night, and this will set up a fantastic second half of the weekend for Sunday. I would term the temperatures for Saturday night as seasonably chilly. As skies clear, and winds slacken decent radiational coling should occur. Minimums should reach the mid to upper 30s. I wouldn't rule out some patchy fog overnight into early Sunday morning either due to the low-level moisture remaining in place as the after effects of the rain. Sunday looks beautiful. Skies should be sunny and temperatures will be seasonal...highs around 60. Benign weather continues for the Sunday night and Monday time frame as the Pacific high dominates. Temperatures will continue to increase, and after a chilly start to Monday with lows in the upper 30s, afternoon highs will exceed 60. The Gulf flow returns Monday night as the high exits into Dixie. The weather remains dry with high pressure in tact in the upper levels. With the return flow commencing, fog could be an issue for this period as well, but further assessment will be given in later forecasts. A WAA regime should unfold at this time, and low temperatures will respond. I expect the Tuesday morning minimums to be in the middle 40s. This is slightly above the seasonal norm.
Clouds will increase on Tuesday, but it should be another dry day with the upper level ridging continue for one more day. The return flow will intensify as a large Pacific storm system approaches for the mid-week period. Winds will increase along with low-level moisture and surface temperatures. It is possible that max temps could reach 70 degrees, and if models keep trending that way this weekend I will forecast 70 or thereabout. For now, mid to upper 60s will suffice for day 5. This next Pacific trough could be negatively tilted as it comes out of the Great Plains. Rain chances are certainly back in the forecast for Wednesday, but it could come in the form of strong to severe thunderstorms if the trough is indeed negatively tilted, and Jet Stream energy induces cyclogenesis in the Plains or near the Red River Valley. It is far too early to speculate on this matter, and certainly too early to forecast it, however, consistency is there that it's going to rain on Wednesday, so rain chances are rather high for that period. Warm and windy will also be in the forecast for Wednesday with the advancing storm. Temperatures could flirt with 70 once again, but with the added cloud and expected thunderstorms I will keep temperatures in the 60s for maximums while morning lows reach the lower 50s. Is Mother Nature trying to balance things out across the area after a very cold start to the year? There is a lot of uncertainty as to what happens in the wake of this frontal passage. Models diverge and the forecast is in limbo for day 7. One model run shows a continued fast moving zonal flow with high pressure building in and sunny skies with seasonable temperatures, while another one shows the front stalling in the Gulf and another Gulf low forming keeping an overrunning situation across our area with cloudy and cool conditions and off and on rain. I will hinge upon a wetter solution at this time with the established pattern, and the present El Nino being key factors in this forecast reasoning. I will also undercut guidance just a bit for temps with CAA in place, and the continued cloud cover and possible rain. Looking out just beyond the forecast period, the end of next week looks dry and seasonable as the zonal flow continues. Models indicate another potent Pacific storm system over the following weekend. The long range models indicate an active El Nino pattern for the rest of the month, very similar to what we experienced in December. At this same time, the cold Arctic air will be reloading over Canada, and slowly oozing to the South. There are hints of another negative spike in the NAO towards month's end, and this would favor another blast from the Arctic, but we'll see. Often times, some of our coldest weather of the whole season comes in early February.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 47/58 45/50 38/59 40 60 80 90 0 0
LFT 46/59 47/52 39/60 40 60 80 90 0 0
BPT 49/61 43/51 40/61 60 60 80 90 0 0
AEX 41/55 40/45 35/55 30 40 60 70 0 0
POE 42/56 41/46 36/56 30 40 60 70 0 0
ARA 47/62 51/55 40/60 40 60 80 90 0 0
Tonight...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 47. East wind 10 mph.
Friday...Cloudy and windy with rain likely. High 58. ENE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday Night...Cloudy and windy with rain a few thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall at times. Low 45. NE wind 20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday...Cloudy and windy with rain likely. Rain could be heavy at times in the morning. Rain tapering off late. High 50. North wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.
Saturday Night...Decreasing Cloudiness. Low 38. NW wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday...Sunny. High 59. North wind 10 mph.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Friday
1-15-10
Low: 47
High: 58
Precip: 60%
Wind: ENE 15-25
Saturday
1-16-10
Geaux Saints!!!
Low: 45
High: 50
Precip: 90%
Wind: N 15-20
W.C.: 30s
Sunday
1-17-10
Low: 38
High: 59
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Monday
1-18-10
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Low: 39
High: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Tuesday
1-19-10
Low: 44
High: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Wednesday
1-20-10
Low: 52
High: 68
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
1-21-10
Low: 47
High: 53
Precip: 40%
Wind: NNE 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6a.m. Saturday.*
From the NWS LCH...
.LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING. MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF PATHY FOG IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYES TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATER THIS WEEKEND. TIDES WILL MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.
Tonight...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday...East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Saturday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:37a.m. 8:26p.m.
High: 4:05p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
170.04'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Low: 43
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 20-1964
High: 63
Normal High: 60
Record High: 80-1907
Precipitation
Today: Trace
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 2.56"
Year to Date: 0.43"
Normal Year to Date: 2.56"
Record: 1.25"-1946
Sunrise Friday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:35p.m.
Friday Hunting Times: 6:40a.m.-6:05p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Friday January 15
First Quarter- Saturday January 23
Full Moon- Saturday January 30
Last Quarter- Friday February 5
This Date in Weather History...January 14: There's a song that says "It Never Rains in Southern California" while maybe someone should sing one that says it never snows in Southern California...or does it??? It did on this day way back 1882. An astounding 15" fell at San Bernardino, and even a trace was recorded in San Diego. A few years earlier in 1863, Cincinnati, OH recorded its heaviest snowfall on record. 20" of snow blanketed the city once the snowstorm was over, this shattered the old record of 11".
Here's another new feature to the blog called Did You Know! It is interesting weather facts from all over the world, and meteorological terminology.
Did You Know...You hear me talk about the Jet Stream all the time, but what is it??? Jet streams are very strong winds that blow up high in the atmosphere ~ 6 miles or so. They can be up to 2,500 miles long, but no more than 310 miles wide. The Jet Stream was virtually unknown until World War II when pilots found their air speed reduced when they were flying against the Jet Stream.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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