*My thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of the Haiti Earthquake.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was yet another morning with below freezing temperatures to make it 10 straight days officially at Lake Charles, and 12 straight days at some locations. This is very rare for the area, as there is often many winters we go through were we don't have freezing temperatures on 10 days over the course of the entire season, much less 10 days in a row. This prolonged streak of below freezing minimum temperatures will end tonight as our next storm system begins to unfold. It wasn't a bad day at all across the area with lots of sunshine and a pleasant afternoon after a cold start. Lows this morning were around 30 while afternoon highs were near the seasonable average in the mid to upper 50s. Plenty of sunshine was around as high pressure dominated the forecast area for one more day. High clouds began streaming into the area ahead of a South Texas short wave, and weak upper level low over Central Texas. Clouds have continued to increase tonight as the much advertised strong El Nino storm system begins to make its presence known. The initial short wave and weak upper level low are ejecting NE through SE Texas tonight, and will slide across the forecast area overnight resulting in some shower activity across the area. Most of the rainfall should be light, but an occasional moderate to heavy shower can't be ruled out. It will remain cool with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. However, Southern portions of the area will likely temperatures beginning to rise overnight as the initial S/WV moves through, and with Western Gulf cyclogenesis a WAA regime will commence.
On Thursday, overcast conditions are a given, but most of the initial overnight rains should be out of the area as the passing short wave moves on. However, our attention will be on Gulf cyclogenesis at this time, as well the next advancing trough currently diving through the Rockies. Our nemesis the Subtropical Jet Stream is back at it as well. This will only advance a complex weather situation. Rain chances return Thursday afternoon as the surface low moves slowly to the NE towards SE Louisiana, and more perturbations rotate in advance of the impinging Pacific system. Rain will develop over the Gulf waters, and progress towards our coastline. The advancing short waves will bring rain chances back to the forecast area Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, but most of the heavy rainfall associated with the Gulf low should remain over the Gulf. Short waves will continue to move out in advance of the main trough which will be moving across our area Friday into Saturday. Moderation of temperatures continues Thursday with afternoon highs possibly reaching 60. It won't be near as cold Thursday night either as the WAA regime is in place. Expect overnight minimums in the mid to upper 40s...slightly above normal, if you can believe that.
Rain chances will increase further on Friday as the surface low will be the main weather feature. However, there is a bit of good news this forecast package, as it appears the models believe the low will track a bit further SE than previously thought. If this were to come to fruition then much of the heavy rainfall would remain over the Gulf, and up towards SE Louisiana. SW Louisiana would remain in the cool sector of the storm. This would mean no severe weather, and just a general nagging widespread rain, like we've seen many times this season thus far. Rain could certainly be heavy at times, and I wouldn't even rule out some rumbles of thunder by Friday evening as the set up favors elevated convection. Also, a noted difference this forecast period is the fact that I don't believe it will rain throughout the day Friday. I believe we'll have another break between short waves once again. However, by Friday afternoon widespread rain should dot the landscape once again. I still believe we'll see 2-3" of rain this event, but the highest totals will be nearest the coast and in the offshore waters. Friday maximums should be near normal in the mid to upper 50s. It will remain on the cool side based on the track of the low, however, any deviation further NE would mean a warmer forecast than currently depicted. A slower moving system will delay the onset of the widespread rainfall until Friday afternoon or Friday evening.
Rain chances will be at their highest for the Friday night/Saturday morning as the low makes its closest approach to the coast, and the trough advances towards the forecast area. Lift will be at a maximum, and instability values will be on the rise as well. Therefore, a widespread rainfall is expected, but no severe weather. At this time, it looks like we should avoid a flood threat at least from rainfall. We've been in an overall dry pattern since the first of the year, and this will help as we contend with this event. Coastal flooding could still be an issue as the low pressure deepens offshore, and high pressure is anchored over the East coast, as well as one pushing down from the Rockies behind the aforementioned trough. Rainfall will be widespread Friday night through Saturday, as the low moves by. Don't be surprised if you hear some thunder during this time due to the added instability, but again no severe weather is expected. Saturday we'll transition from heavier, convective, cumuliform rains to steady, non-convective, stratiform rains as the low pushes away. Wrap-around moisture is expected for the duration of the day, and overrunning precipitation is expected to continue with generally light rain and/or drizzle expected. CAA will also be established on the back side of the low Friday night into Saturday with morning lows near 40, and highs will struggle to reach 50. It will be cold and raw as NNE winds pick up behind the low. Expect wind gusts over 25 mph at times, and sustained winds at 15-20 mph. Saturday should be a great day to stay indoors and watch the Saints game as the misery goes on outside! Geaux Saints! Improvement in weather conditions is noted by Saturday afternoon as the overrunning slowly erodes with the Great Plains high building SE. Rains will slowly come to an end on Saturday night from W to E across the area. This will still be a very strong and deep Gulf storm, but it doesn't appear as though we'll get the max effects of the system like it appeared on Monday.
A vast improvement is in store for Sunday as the wrap around moisture clears the area, and any chance of rain ends before sunrise. Skies will clear Sunday morning with high pressure becoming the controlling factor the next couple of days now. The air mass that will be in place behind this system is a Pacific air mass, so major CAA is not expected. It is solely the rain and clouds that will keep temperatures down on Saturday. However, for Sunday with expected sunshine by mid-late morning temperatures should rise to near normal buy mid afternoon. It will be a chilly start with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Light winds and clear skies/sunny skies are expected Sunday night and Monday. A nice day is in store on Monday for anyone who may be off. As the title indicates, a much milder pattern is in place for awhile, and this will be evident on Monday as highs reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday morning lows will be chilly with most readings from the low to mid 30s expected. A few locations may hit freezing, but for the most part it won't be a significant freeze at any rate. It will feel nice outside with the sunshine and light wind, and just simply because it's so much warmer than the air mass we're coming out of. The dominating Pacific high quickly moves East Monday night as the early winter pattern is re-established over the area.
Dry weather continues for Monday night and Tuesday, but a return flow commences as the weather pattern gets set to repeat itself by mid-week. Clouds will increase Monday night as the controlling high shifts East, and a strengthening zonal flow over the area continues to control the weather. The pattern across the country at the beginning of the work week will be a split flow, which I described on Monday. This zonal flow is generally fairly fast, and it will also keep the cold air bottled up to our North for now. Another Pacific trough will be digging through the Rockies by Tuesday, and this will help to strengthen the Gulf flow. Low-level moisture will increase as Great Plains cyclogenesis occurs. A few showers will be expected with the deep low-level flow in place. Temperatures will do an "about-face" compared to this week and trend above climo. Readings should climb well into the 60s by Tuesday. The STJ gets charged once again in response to the strengthening Great Plains trough, and kicks up yet another Gulf low by Wednesday. Thus, higher rain chances will return to the forecast at the end of the period. Heavy rain could occur, but this is all dependent on the track of the low. The mild temperature regime will continue as the Gulf low will cause the front associated with the Pacific trough to hold up off to our NW. The front should cross the forecast area at the end of day 7 as the low ejects into the Central Gulf. Cooler and drier air is indicated by models for the end of next week in the wake of the front, but nothing overly cold with the zonal flow continuing into the final full week of the month. A pattern shift towards the end of the month is indicated by the long range NAO, which could be the signs of another visit from the Arctic towards the first of February.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/60 48/55 41/47 40 40 60 70 80 80
LFT 37/59 46/57 43/49 30 40 60 70 80 80
BPT 46/62 50/54 40/46 40 40 60 70 80 70
AEX 31/54 45/51 36/41 40 40 40 60 80 80
POE 33/55 46/52 37/43 40 40 40 60 80 80
ARA 34/58 47/59 44/50 40 40 60 70 80 80
Tonight...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 43. Temperatures slowly rising through the night. East wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. High 60. East wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 48. East wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Friday...Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely. High 55. NE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday Night...Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely. Low 41. NNE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday...Cloudy with rain likely. Heavy rain at times in the morning. Rain tapering off to light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. Colder. High 47. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Thursday
1-14-10
Low: 43
High: 60
Precip: 40%
Wind: E 10-15
Friday
1-15-10
Low: 48
High: 55
Precip: 60%
Wind: NE 15-20
Saturday
1-16-10
Low: 41
High: 47
Precip: 80%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 30-35
Sunday
1-17-10
Low: 34
High: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 25-35 A.M.
Monday
1-18-10
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Low: 35
High: 58
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10
W.C.: 30-40 A.M.
Tuesday
1-19-10
Low: 41
High: 63
Precip: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Wednesday
1-20-10
Low: 48
High: 64
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday...East winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Friday Night...Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely.
Saturday...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain likely.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 8:06a.m. 8:09p.m.
High: 3:49a.m. 11:16p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
170.20'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Low: 30
Normal Low: 41
Record Low: 16-1912
High: 57
Normal High: 60
Record High: 82-2000
Precipitation
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.43"
Normal Month to Date: 2.37"
Year to Date: 0.43"
Normal Year to Date: 2.37"
Record: 2.73"-1977
Sunrise Thursday: 7:10a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 5:35p.m.
Thursday Hunting Times: 6:40a.m.-6:05p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Friday January 15
First Quarter- Saturday January 23
Full Moon- Saturday January 30
Last Quarter- Friday February 5
This Date in Weather History...January 13: Gulf Coast Winter Storm! A winter storm is rare on the Gulf Coast, but the one that occurred on January 12-13, 1997 takes the cake. A low formed along an old Arctic frontal boundary in the Western Gulf, and moved NE along the front towards Florida. Overrunning precipitation spread across Texas and Louisiana. The cold air in place across the area resulted in the precipitation falling in a frozen or freezing form all the way down to the coast. Snow occurred along the I-20 corridor from North Texas into Mississippi, and sleet fell from Central Texas through Central Louisiana, while closer to the coast along the I-10 corridor freezing rain was the predominant precipitation type. Major icing occurred in cities such as Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Lafayette. The freezing rain persisted for 2 days, and resulted in the loss of power for over 1/2 million people at the height of the storm. Power was out for up to a week in some locations. The ice storm resulted in millions of dollars in damage across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Damage equaled that of a category 2 hurricane, and it was by far the worst winter storm in history across the area. At the time it was the worst natural disaster in SW Louisiana history.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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