Significant End of the Week Storm En Route...Arctic Air Takes Over for the Weekend...

Thursday, January 28, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Rain will begin overnight. It was a day of transition across the forecast area. Clouds gradually increased throughout the day as the advertised vigorous storm system approaches. Some sunshine occurred this morning, but overcast conditions moved in by mid afternoon across the forecast area. Mild weather continued for another day with a high in the upper 60s to around 70. A pronounced Gulf flow was established as well as the pressure gradient force strengthened across the area. This latest system is still getting better organized over the Central Plains into West Texas. A significant ice/snow storm will occur over that area through Friday. All precipitation will be liquid here. Overnight, showers will begin to develop across the area as deeper moisture streams over the area ahead of the advancing storm. This vigorous storm system has multiple components associated with it. A surface low and trailing cold front is present over Texas, while a weak warm front is lifting Northward through the state tonight. The driving force behind this system is the strong upper level low which currently hangs back over New Mexico. All this will conglomerate and produce rain across the area from later tonight through Friday. The mild weather will continue tonight with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s. This is the last stretch with above normal temperatures for a little while.

Rain will be scattered and light initially, but by morning widespread rain will develop across the forecast area Heavy rain is expected at times, and some localized street flooding can't be ruled out Friday morning. This is a very dynamic and energetic system as the nose of strong low-level Jet will be moving across the area Friday. However, that being said, severe weather still appears to be a minimal threat. The strong Jet in place and projected atmospheric wind profiles does suggest some damaging winds are possible However, the greatest threat of any severe weather should be towards Acadiana. Heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat with this system, and not much change in forecast reasoning has occurred since we last spoke. As of this writing, showers have begun to develop near the coast, and are riding NE across the forecast area. This is an advance of the cold front which will cross the area on Friday. An MCS is likely to move through the area during the morning hours on Friday. The models are in fair agreement on the ETA of the front. It should enter the forecast area by mid-morning Friday, and reach Lake Charles around noon, and Acadiana by 3p.m. The heaviest rain should occur between the hours of 6a.m.- noon in the Lake Charles area as the front approaches. This will be the time frame when the best convergence and dynamics will be present. Rainfall won't come to an end with the frontal passage. there will be a period of overrunning rains behind the front for the remainder of the day on Friday. However, we will transition from a heavy rain threat to more of a light rain and/or drizzle situation. Average rainfall amounts still look be from 1-2" with higher amounts near 3" possible. We should be able to withstand these rain amounts and avoid a significant flooding event. However, some localized street flooding and flooding of low-lying areas can't be ruled out. Rain chances are maxed out for Friday. The mild weather will continue until frontal passage. Temperatures could reach the low end of the 60s before said frontal passage, but once the front comes through temperatures will hit the downward spiral. This is absolutely reflected in the forecast, and you may have noticed this throughout the week, that I've put the low as the high and the high as the low. Temperatures will fall from around 60 Friday morning into the 40s by Friday late afternoon as strong CAA takes over and Arctic air filters into the region. The big winter storm will continue off towards our North.

As mentioned a moment ago, there will be post-frontal rain across the area as a stint of overrunning will occur across the forecast area as the drier air in the mid and upper levels lags behind due to the shallow nature of the cold air. Temperatures will continue to fall into the 40s, and it will become quite raw by Friday evening. Winds will be an issue as well thanks to strong CAA. Winds will shift with fropa from SE to NNW and increase to over 20 mph at times. As temperatures fall into the 40s, a wind chill will come into play. Expect it to feel like the 30s by day's end. Wrap-around moisture will continue the threat for light rain/drizzle through the evening hours, making for a miserable Friday evening and Friday night. CAA will continue with temperatures falling into the 30s overnight, but all precipitation should remain liquid around these parts. North Louisiana could see some sleet or snow flurries before the precip ends early Saturday morning, but the prospects of frozen precip are even an iffy proposition up there. The overrunning, wrap-around moisture will keep cloud cover in place into Saturday. However, drier air will finally move into all levels of the atmosphere, thus ending the intermittent light rain and/or drizzle by this time. A definite reminder that it is still winter is inevitable at this time. Overnight minimums should range from the mid to upper 30s across the forecast area.

The weather improves on Saturday, and a dry weekend is anticipated. Although, it will be dry, it will be cold. Temperatures will be below normal through the weekend. Saturday will likely start out cloudy, but it should clear up during the day as Arctic high pressure infiltrates the region from the Red River Valley. It is prudent to undercut temperatures from what guidance shows based on the fact that the air over the region will be transported straight from the ice and snow pack to our North over Oklahoma via strong NNW winds. The continued CAA will offset significant warming, and a small diurnal is expected. I only expect temperatures to reach the mid 40s at best. Wind chills will be in the 20s by Saturday morning, and be in the 30s for the afternoon hours. Winds will decouple Saturday night as the high slides into SE and Central Texas. Skies will be clear, and this will set the stage for radiational cooling. The end result will be an area wide freeze for Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. However, hard freeze conditions should not be met. Temperatures will range from the mid 20s around POE and AEX to around 29 or  30 at LCH and LFT, while it should right at freezing along the coast by sunrise Sunday. We'll close out the month on Sunday with cold sunshine. This will make it a clean sweep for Sundays in the month of January...that is, 5 straight Sundays of beautiful weather o start the year. It will certainly be cold, but nothing like the blast of three weeks ago when we experienced 10s for the first time in 14 years. Sunday highs should rebound to the upper 40s to around 50 with high pressure in place. Clear and cold weather continues Sunday night, though air mass modification takes shape as the controlling high orients itself NE of the area. Lows heading into Monday should be around freezing.

As we start February, the weather starts changing once again. There's rarely a dull moment around these parts with the ongoing El Nino. February is often a month of transition around here. Initially, we can still see some very cold air during the first half of the month, however, by the second half of the month, severe weather season gets an early start across South Louisiana. No telling what is in store for February 2010, but here's what we should expect for the first week of the new month. Relatively benign weather is on tap for Monday, though the eroding Arctic air mass will keep it on the cool side. At the same time, an active Subtropical Jet Stream will be present. This will result in an increasing cirrus cloud canopy during the day. Disturbances permeating through the STJ will effect the area through the week. The first of these said disturbances should rotate through by Monday night bringing a slight chance of a shower, moisture should still be limited at this time, and there will be very limited instability to work with. It is mainly the forcing from these short waves that will kick off a shower or two Monday Night and ring up the available moisture. Monday during the day should be dry with just the aforementioned clouds rolling in. Highs should remain below seasonal values in the low to mid 50s.

Rain chances will increase further on Tuesday as a stronger short wave emanates the STJ, and ejects out ahead of an advancing trough dropping into the Intermountain West. Better lift and forcing will be in place to generate a decent chance of rain. However, it is near impossible to pinpoint the exact timing of these disturbances especially this far out, so determining whether or not the highest chance of rain will come during the morning or afternoon is no easy feat this far out. The bottom line is that an unsettled weather pattern is hanging in the balance for next week. A progressive warm up will carry us through the week, and temperatures will be closer to normal on Tuesday. You can expect more of the same on Wednesday. A more pronounced Gulf flow will be established at this time as a deepening trough approaches along with its associated strong cold front. Energy supplied by our nemesis STJ will continue to induce embedded perturbations that will trigger decent rain chances. By this time frame, enough instability could be generated for some thunderstorms, but I won't reflect that at this time. Temperatures moderate to near seasonal norms by mid week as the Gulf flow becomes entrenched. At this time, it appears that day 7, Thursday, will offer the worst weather for next week. A strong cold front should push through bringing with it the chance for some bodacious boomers. It is conceivable in this pattern, that we'll be entrenched in a warm sector set up ahead of the front. A more robust warm up is anticipated ahead of this next storm system. Temperatures should reach above normal levels. A heavy rainfall event will be possible along with the severe weather potential. The end of next week into Super Bowl weekend looks great right now. Conditions could be a bit chilly, but dry is the name of the game as we get ready to cheer the Saints onto victory over the Colts a week from Sunday! I still see the signs of another Arctic blast in early February, but certainly won't be specific about any details on that at this juncture.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  58/44  34/45  28/48  60 100 30 0 0 0
LFT   60/46  35/44  27/49  60 100 30 0 0 0
BPT   59/43  36/46  29/50  70 100 30 0 0 0
AEX  57/39  30/42  25/45  70 100 30 0 0 0
POE  56/41  32/43  26/46  70 100 30 0 0 0
ARA  61/46  36/46  28/49  60 100 30 0 0 0


Tonight...Cloudy with rain and a a few thunderstorms likely. Rain heavy at times towards morning. Temperatures near steady or slowly rise overnight from the upper 50s. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall expected in the morning. No severe weather expected. 1-2" of rainfall expected with isolated 3" amounts possible. Rainfall transitioning to light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. High in the upper 50s to near 60 in the morning with temperatures falling into the 40s in the afternoon. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty in the morning, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.


Friday Night..Cloudy, Windy, and Cold with a 30% chance of light rain and/or drizzle before midnight. Light rain and/or drizzle ending and skies clearing after midnight. Low 34. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 20s.

Saturday...Becoming Sunny and Cold. High 45. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear and Cold with an area wide freeze. Low 28. Light North wind.

Sunday...Sunny and Cold. High 48. NE wind 5-10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Friday
1-29-10

 

Low: 58

High: 44

Precip: 100%

Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25

Saturday

1-30-10

 

Low: 34

High: 45

Precip: 0%

Wind: NNW 10-15

W.C.: 20-35

Sunday

1-31-10

 

Low: 28

High: 48

Precip: 0%

Wind: NE 5-10

W.C.: 25-35

Monday

2-1-10

Low: 32

High: 53

Precip: 0%

Wind: NE 10

Tuesday

2-2-10

Groundhog Day

Low: 39

High: 56

Precip: 40%

Wind: NE 5-10

Wednesday

2-3-10

Low: 43

High: 58

Precip: 40%

Wind: ESE 10-15

Thursday

2-4-10

Low: 48

High: 64

Precip: 70%

Wind: SSE 10-15

...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Saturday.*

Tonight...East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...South winds around 20 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Saturday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Changes Ongoing...Rain Soon to Follow...Cold Weekend in Store...

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today was another very nice day as advertised with a clear and cold start with morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. It was a pleasantly mild afternoon with highs around 70. Clouds began increasing across the forecast area late this afternoon, as a return flow of Gulf moisture on the back side of a strong Pacific high began affecting the region. This is in advance of our next vigorous El Nino storm system. Benign weather will continue tonight, but low level moisture will continue to increase with morning lows expected to be much warmer than the 3 previous nights. Minimums should be around 50 at sunrise Thursday. I wouldn't rule out some patchy fog as well, but there is enough mixing ahead of the storm system, that the wind should preclude significant fog development. This storm system is clearly evident tonight on satellite imagery. There are several pieces to the pie that will come together to produce a widespread rain event in about 24 hours. Clouds will continue to increase during the day Thursday, and as deeper Gulf moisture arrives ahead of advertised storm a few showers will be possible by the afternoon hours, however, the majority of the rain will hold off until tomorrow night. Mild conditions will continue for one more day with afternoon maximums around 70. This won't be a record by any means, but it is certainly above normal. Wind will also be a factor on Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the developing storm system.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in earnest Thursday night as the advancing trough and associated cold front moves into the region. Other factors that will increase lift and moisture across the forecast area is the presence of a surface low in the vicinity of Central Texas, and a upper level low that will hang back over the Desert SW. This is the driving force behind the entire system. This conglomeration of features will work in tandem to overspread rain across the area from west to east Thursday night. Rain will get heavy at times after midnight, and the worst of the weather should come right around sunrise Friday. There should be ample amounts of instability present by this time, such that some thunderstorms will occur. However, the threat for severe weather looks minimal at this point. Dynamics will be in place by early morning Friday as the presence of a strong low-level Jet will be in place. However, instability will be somewhat lacking, and this will more than likely put the kibosh on any severe weather. Wind profiles are decent, and you have to figure with the strong pressure gradient and intense Jet Stream in place that some of the thunderstorms will produce strong winds. This appears to be the only mode of severe weather that will be possible, but even this should be on an isolated basis. The main issue across the area with this system is going to be the heavy rain threat. Not much change in forecast philosophy has occurred since last night. I still expect average rainfall amounts to be from 1-2" across the area with isolated higher amounts. Rain will be widespread beginning Thursday night lasting through much of the day Friday. The heaviest rainfall will occur along and ahead of the boundary, and this will occur from overnight Thursday through about noon Friday. There are timing uncertainties with the front, but it should clear the entire forecast area by noon. I believe a bit faster movement than what is currently projected will be noted. This should bring the cold front through the Lake Charles area around 9a.m. Friday. The heavy rain threat should come to an end shortly thereafter, but the rain will likely continue for much of the day. Mild weather will persist until frontal passage. Friday morning temperatures should be in the mid 50s early, but they will fall steadily throughout the remainder of the day as strong CAA takes over. On the northern edge of this system, a nasty winter storm will occur with lot of ice and snow. This storm will be newsworthy over the next couple of days. While no frozen precipitation is expected here, we will be indirectly affected by the winter storm. Much colder weather will move into SW Louisiana behind the front Friday. This is largely due in part to a strong NNW wind transporting the cold Canadian air over the ice and snowpack to our North. The snow and ice shield should run from parts of North Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Northern Mississippi and points Eastward from there. The air being transported into the area won't have much time for modification, therefore, temperatures should be colder than models forecast. Friday will be a day with confused temperatures. That is, the maximum will occur during the morning ahead of the front. These readings should be in the mid to upper 50s. A sharp temperature difference is expected in the wake of the front. Friday temperatures will fall from the mild 50s in the morning into the low to mid 40s during the afternoon as the CAA strengthens, and the clouds and rain linger. A wind chill will come into play by Friday afternoon with a brisk NNW wind of around 20 mph. Wind chills should be in the 30s. It will certainly snap us back into the reality of winter.

There is much uncertainty at this time as to when the rainfall shuts off. It all hinges on the movement of the upper level low on the back side of the system. Certainly clouds will hang tough for awhile, likely into early Saturday. The question is with precip. Models indicate that we'll get dry slotted here, therefore, ending precip chances Friday night. However, with the upper level low slow to lift out some overrunning is likely to occur, and this would most likely keep light rain or drizzle ongoing through Friday night. At the same time, colder air will continue filtering into the region. Temperatures will fall into the 30s, but there will be the presence of a warm tongue of air in the mid levels of the atmosphere (850-500 mb.) This would keep the precip in a liquid form across the forecast area. The northern portions of the state could see some light sleet and/or snow Friday night, but any significant frozen precipitation should remain north of the state line. I will re-evaluate this tomorrow. It isn't totally out of the question that some light sleet may mix in with the light rain/drizzle Friday night, but this is not reflected at this time. I will keep rain chances in the forecast for Friday night, and a result I temperatures will not be as cold as previously forecast for Saturday morning. It'll certainly still be cold with a morning low in the mid 30s, and with brisk North winds continuing wind chills could be in the upper 10s at times by Saturday morning. The upper level low will finally eject out to the NE Saturday, and the weather will respond in a positive way at that time. Skies will clear Saturday morning, and become Sunny. It will remain on the cold side Saturday with continued CAA expected. Afternoon maximums will be well below normal in the mid 40s. Winds will slacken during the day as strong Arctic high pressure builds in. The brunt of this cold blast should bypass the forecast area, however, it will certainly be cold enough for an area wide freeze on Sunday morning. Clear skies and light winds Saturday night will result in temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20s for Sunday morning. This is a significant freeze, and the first freezing temperatures we will experience since a couple weeks ago. However, this is not a severe freeze, and is a far cry from the cold blast we experienced back on the 8th-11th. It will be a beautiful Sunday yet again, but it will remain rather chilly with highs only near 50. CAA will end by this time as high pressure builds in, and winds become light.

Cold and dry conditions continue for the Sunday Night/Monday morning period with another light freeze expected. Another El Nino storm system will be in the making as we start February, and clouds will increase in response to this beginning Sunday Night and in earnest on Monday. The cool air will remain in place as Western Gulf cyclogenesis takes shape along the old front in the Gulf. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast by Monday afternoon as deeper moisture moves inland over the top of the cool, stable air at the surface. Temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s on Monday. Rain chances could end up in the likely category, but this is not reflected at this time, but a healthy chance of rain is noted (40%). The air mass in place will be stable, so the typical light rain and/or drizzle should be the dominant precip type. The surface low will slowly move NE towards the coast, and the overrunning rains will continue through the forecast period. Disturbances emanating out ahead of an advancing Gulf warm front, and the low will bring rain into the area from time to time for Tuesday and Wednesday. Timing each one of these disturbances is near impossible especially this far out. The bottom line is that the overall pattern will remain unsettled, and there could be rain at any point during the end of this forecast period. Fine tuning will occur as we get into the weekend, and have a better idea on the timing and specifics of this event. Rain chances will remain on the low side for now, but will go up or down depending on how this system evolves. A subtle warm up is depicted for the latter stages of the forecast as the overrunning continues. Beyond the forecast period, a more pronounced warm up should ensue ahead of  a much stronger storm that will round the base of a new trough toward the latter half of next week, and bring about another chance for showers and thunderstorms. Colder weather could return to the area in time for Super Bowl weekend. The unsettled pattern looks to continue for much of the first half of February.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  49/68  56/43  34/45  0 20 80 100 40 0
LFT   48/69  55/44  35/45  0 20 80 100 40 0
BPT   51/70  57/42  36/45  0 30 90 100 30 0
AEX  43/66  51/39  31/42  0 40 90 100 40 0
POE  44/67  52/40  32/43  0 40 90 100 30 0
ARA  47/68  55/44  35/45  0 30 90 100 40 0

Tonight...Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Low 48. SE wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain, mainly afternoon. High 68. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms becoming likely. Rainfall heavy at times. Low 56. SE wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.

Friday..Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely in the morning transitioning to light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. Rainfall heavy at times during the morning. Turning Colder & Windy. High in the upper 50s in the morning falling into the lower to middle 40s in the afternoon. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20 mph and gusty in the morning. Chance of rain 100%.

Friday Night...Cloudy, Cold, & Windy with a 40% chance of light rain and/or drizzle. Low 34. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings in the 20s.

Saturday...Becoming Sunny, Breezy, & Cold. High 45. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, subsiding to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Wind chill readings 20-30.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Thursday
1-28-10

Low: 49
High: 68
Precip: 20%....90% Night
Wind: SE 10-15


Friday
1-29-10

Low: 56
High: 43
Precip: 100%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25


Saturday
1-30-10

Low: 34
High: 45
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-20
W.C.: 20-30


Sunday
1-31-10

Low: 28
High: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10


Monday
2-1-10

Low: 31
High: 46
Precip: 40% PM
Wind: NE 10-15


Tuesday
2-2-10
Groundhog Day

Low: 38
High: 52
Precip: 60%
Wind: NE 10-15


Wednesday
2-3-10

Low: 44
High: 56
Precip: 40%
Wind: E 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight.

Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 5 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.

Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Nice for Now...Big Changes on the Way by Week's End...Winter's Return This Weekend...

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Who Dat? Who Dat! Who Dat Say Dey Gonna Beat Dem Saints??? Congratulations New Orleans Saints...2009-10 NFC Champions...Good Luck in your First ever Super Bowl against the Colts!

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...January 2010 has been a roller coaster, and that trend will continue this week as we close out the month. Today was a perfect January day, a perfect day for any month. It was about as beautiful as it ever gets in SW Louisiana with crystal clear skies, very low humidity, and pleasantly mild temperatures. It was a cold start with temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. High pressure was firmly in control and a fast warm up occurred with the dry air in place. High temperatures reached the mid to upper 60s, which is several degrees normal for this time of year. The ridge of high pressure is only slowly sliding Eastward tonight. Tonight will be another night of near perfect radiational cooling conditions with calm winds and clear skies. The high pressure will keep the weather quiet across the area tonight. Temperatures will be similar to that of last night with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A light return flow may commence overnight across portions of the area, but overall virtually no wind is expected overnight. Count the stars tonight!

Some changes take shape on Wednesday. It should start out as another beautiful day with the cool morning start. However, a return flow will become more pronounced during the day. Clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon as moisture content increases across the area. This is all in response to our next storm system which is taking shape over the Rockies tonight. A cold front and associated surface low will develop late Wednesday night over West Texas as the system amplifies and its trough sharpens as it rotates Eastward out of the Rockies. Pleasantly mild temperatures are expected for Wednesday as well with maximums in the mid to upper 60s. It could be a few degrees cooler on Wednesday, especially for Southern portions of the forecast area because of the return flow. In all, Wednesday should be another nice late January day. Cloud cover becomes the dominant weather feature by Wednesday night with a more pronounced return flow. The return flow will also produce a significant moderation in temperatures, and overnight lows should warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s. The return flow will be strengthening as the pressure gradient between systems tightens.

It will take it awhile, but the next weather maker will affect the region beginning late Thursday. Cloud cover will certainly be present to start the day, but there could be some fog as well with the more pronounced low-level flow. The anticyclone will be over the SE U.S. by this time. There will be a deepening (strengthening) low pressure traversing the Red River Valley. This will continue to aid in increasing moisture levels across the forecast area. Most of the day Thursday should be dry and mild with breezy south winds throughout the day. Of course, as has been the case all season, the El Nino pattern will energize the usual elements involved in this pattern. Rain chances enter the forecast Thursday afternoon as some return flow showers could develop in the afternoon, but by far most of the rain will wait until Thursday night. This, is the main system moves across the area. Another component to this storm will take effect late Thursday as Gulf cylcogensis occurs. This low will help to overspread rainfall across the forecast area. All ingredients should be in place for a heavy rain event with rainfall totals on the order of 2-4" across the area. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. though there are certainly some parameters in place that could lead to an isolated severe cell or two in the Thursday night/Friday morning period. A further assessment of this situation will determine specific logistics in later forecasts. Confidence is certainly high enough at this time to suggest the aforementioned 2-4" rain amounts, and thunderstorms will also be indicated with the amount of instability in place. The potential for severe weather all hinges on the official track of the surface low, but at this time, I suspect that the low tracks near the coast. This would keep the greatest ingredients for all modes of severe weather over the coastal waters. I believe that the greatest severe threat at this time would be in the form of damaging winds as the pressure gradient continues to tighten across the area, and the low tracks very near the forecast area. Thursday will feature the previously mentioned deteriorating weather conditions, and temperatures will remain on the mild side approaching 70 degrees.

Rain chances will be maxed out for the Thursday night/Friday period. Rain is the easy part of the forecast for this period. The difficulty ensues on Friday. The timing of the front is still a bit uncertain, but best guess right now is sometime Friday morning most likely between 4 and 8a.m. Temperatures will remain mild until frontal passage, and this will mean that the overnight minimums for Friday morning will be realized around midnight with temperatures likely rising in response to WAA until frontal passage. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue as the front approaches, and the Gulf low advances. The front will push through the area in the morning hours of Friday, and temperatures will take a nose dive behind it as very strong CAA takes over. There is plenty of cold air bottled up to our North this week, and we will get in on some of this behind this system. At this time, it appears we will not receive a direct shot of cold Arctic air, but rather a glancing blow. This can certainly change, but all indications are that the coldest air will not visit SW Louisiana. Regardless, we will be reminded that it is still winter by Friday. Temperatures will fall from the lower 50s Friday morning through the 40s during the day. Winds will be an issue as well with the strong front moving through.A wind chill will come into play later in the day as the temperature drops. Rain will continue for much of the day as some overrunning develops behind the front. The rain will continue as long as the low is in close proximity to SW Louisiana. The rain event will transition from a heavy rain and thunderstorm threat early, to just a general rain and eventually light rain and/or drizzle by the afternoon hours. Rain will end late in the day as drier air finally pushes into the mid and upper levels.

There will be some frozen precipitation on the northern edge of this system. However, exactly where the cut off is for rain and snow remains to be seen. It seems unlikely that any frozen precipitation will occur in our forecast area. The northern half of the state will have the chance to see some sleet or snow mix in with the rain before the precip ends Friday, but nothing major is expected. However, our neighbors to the North from Oklahoma across Arkansas into Tennessee and perhaps Northern Mississippi and Alabama will likely see a significant winter storm with significant ice and snow accumulations. The surface low will move Eastward to a position along the Northern Gulf Coast of Florida by Friday evening. The aforementioned rainfall amounts will likely lead to see localized flooding, and the strong winds could create some coastal flooding issues. Otherwise, no additional problems are expected. No mention of any frozen precipitation is cited at this point, though this potential will be monitored in the coming days. You know how I always stress about the difficulty in forecasting cold weather. It will certainly be a day where temperatures are confused with the low occurring before midnight Saturday with temperatures falling through the afternoon hours which would typically be the time of day when the maximum should occur. Any potential for severe weather will end by mid-morning Friday as the front clears the area. Overrunning is a typical occurrence is this set up, and this will certainly occur this time as well. Conditions improve Friday night as Canadian high pressure builds in, and skies clear. An area wide freeze will occur at this time, and this will certainly remind us that yes it is still winter!

 High pressure anchored over the area this weekend will provide for a nice weekend across the area. It will be on the chilly side with the glancing blow of Arctic air in place. Saturday morning will be quite windy, so a wind chill will be in place. Morning temperatures should be in the light freeze category with readings as low as the mid 20s in Central Louisiana, and mid 30s along the immediate coast. CAA will continue Saturday, and even with  full sunshine it will remain on the cold side. Highs should only reach the mid 40s at best. Wind chills will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s early in the morning, and only in the 30s during the afternoon. Saturday night will be the coldest night this go around as the high pressure makes it closest approach to the area. A freeze should occur for just about the entire area. The immediate coast may escape a freeze, but certainly a frost is expected. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s in the coldest locations to right around freezing at the coast. For Lake Charles proper, upper 20s seem like a good call. A cloud free sky should remain with us for Sunday as the high remains firmly entrenched. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer during the afternoon with highs around 50. You can clearly see we'll transition from above normal to below normal as we close out January.

The active pattern carries over into February. Rain chances return to the forecast late Monday as yet another El Nino system develops and affects the region. Monday morning should once again be on the chilly side with lows in the upper 30s, however, much warmer conditions are on tap for the afternoon as a strong Southerly fetch is established in response to developing low pressure, and a warm front surging Northward from the Gulf as well. Much of the day Monday will remain dry, but certainly clouds and moisture will increase. Rain chances return to the likely category by Monday night and Tuesday as a Western Gulf low forms and moves Eastward. It is too early to say for sure where the low will track, but there is the possibility portions of the area could get into the warm sector with this second system. We'll focus more on this system after Friday's system is a fading memory. Moderating temperatures are expected for the first few days of February with highs getting back into the 60s by Tuesday, while lows return to above normal values in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Beyond this forecast period, overrunning rains may continue as shallow cold air filters into the region behind the Gulf low. This would keep rain chances going for the middle to latter part of next week. Clear and colder weather is slated for Super Bowl weekend if the current models are correct! 


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  39/67  48/71  55/42  0 0 0 30 100 100
LFT   38/67  47/72  54/44  0 0 0 30 100 100
BPT   41/68  52/73  57/43  0 0 0 40 100 100
AEX  33/65  45/66  49/38  0 0 0 30 100 100
POE  34/65  46/67  50/39  0 0 0 30 100 100
ARA  37/68  48/71  53/44  0 0 0 30 100 100


Tonight...Clear and Cold w/ Patchy Frost. Low 39. Calm wind.

Wednesday...Mostly Sunny, becoming Partly Cloudy late. High 67. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy and Warmer. Low 48. SE wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy and Breezy w/ a 30% chance of rain late. High 71. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Thursday Night...Cloudy and Windy w/ rain and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible at times. Low 55. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.

Friday...Cloudy and Windy w/ rain and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Heavy rainfall possible at times in the morning. Heavy rain threat ending by noon w/ rain becoming light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. 2-4" of rainfall expected for the entire event. Early morning temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, before falling into the lower 40s by evening. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty becoming NNW 20 mph and gusty before noon. Chance of rain 100%.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Wednesday
1-27-10

Low: 39
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10 


Thursday
1-28-10

Low: 48
High: 71
Precip: 30%
Wind: SSE 10


Friday
1-29-10

Low: 55
High: 42
Precip: 100%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-25


Saturday
1-30-10

Low: 31
High: 46
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 20-30


Sunday
1-31-10

Low: 28
High: 52
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-40


Monday
2-1-10

Low: 38
High: 58
Precip: 30%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15


Tuesday
2-2-10
Groundhog Day

Low: 47
High: 62
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Marine Forecast....


Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.

Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...North winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.



Good night and God bless! Geaux Saints!
-DM-

Severe Weather Threat Over...Nice & Mild for the End of the Work Week...Another El Nino System Over the Weekend...

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

*The blog will remain in severe weather mode for one more night due to all of the action from today.*

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The severe weather threat is winding down across the area, though some additional activity is possible for the next few hours mainly for Acadiana and Central Louisiana. There are currently no watches or warnings in effect across the forecast area. We virtually escaped this powerful storm system without much in the way of severe weather aside from the tornado near Ville Platte. By far, the worst of the weather this afternoon and tonight has been across North Louisiana and NE Texas. Off and on showers and occasional thunderstorms along with areas of fog and unseasonable warmth was the weather story across the forecast area on this Wednesday. Overcast conditions prevailed throughout the day, and fog persisted in marine areas all day as a warm front moved inland ahead of the advancing Pacific system and associated trough. Temperatures were right on track from last night's forecast package reaching the lower 70s. Gusty Southerly winds prevailed through the day as a strong left-front quadrant of the Subtropical Jet Stream set up right across the area. The trough and weak cold is essentially right over the Lake Charles area as of this writing, and will continue making good headway Eastward tonight. It should clear the entire forecast area by 3a.m. or so. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely until its passage, and fog will be an issue as well mainly near marine zones. The fog will scour out before sunrise. Drier air will begin to infiltrate the forecast area after midnight, and skies will clear overnight. By sunrise Thursday, it will be slightly cooler than it was on Wednesday morning with readings in the mid 50s or so. This is still above for mid-late January.

In the wake of this Pacific system, high pressure builds into the area for Thursday and Friday. Benign weather is expected each day. Lots of sunshine is expected with pleasantly warm conditions. Thursday highs should easily reach the 70-75 range, and the atmosphere will dry out through the day. High pressure settles right overhead by Thursday night, and this will provide perfect conditions for radiational cooling as winds go near calm. Skies should be clear and with low dew points in the 40s, temperatures should have no problem falling into the 40s as we head into Friday morning. Gulf moisture will slowly begin to return by Friday afternoon as the Pacific high pressure moves East of the Mississippi, engendering a low-level Gulf flow at that time. A beautiful sunny day is expected for our Friday. Max temperatures will be above normal once again, so it will be a nice taste of spring as highs reach the lower 70s. The Southerly flow becomes more pronounced Friday Night as the system which is currently pounding Southern California with flooding and mudslides and record rainfall moves out of the lee of the Rockies. Clouds will begin to return overnight, and fog could be an issue as well with plenty of low-level moisture in place and the temperature differential between land and water. Minimum temperatures will be a bit warmer as well back into the lower 50s. This is about 10 degrees above normal.

Rain chances return to the forecast on Saturday afternoon and evening as the next potent Pacific storm moves across the country. While there should be a sufficient enough moisture return to generate some shower and thunderstorm activity later in the day. However, the main Jet and dynamics with this second system should bypass our area, thus, no severe weather threat is forecast at this point. I will get more specific with storm number 2 tomorrow when we'll have tonight's system safely behind us. Saturday should start dry with just clouds and fog. Some peaks of sun can't be ruled out in the morning, but as we go through the day certainly clouds will lower and thicken. Showers and thunderstorms will break out over Texas Saturday morning, and traverse Eastward as the front advances through the day. This rain threat should be highest between the hours of 3p.m. and 9p.m. It should be another quick mover, and I expect that most locations will see less than an inch of rain. It will remain warm and humid ahead of the front on Saturday as well with highs in the 70s once again. Winds will be a factor as well, as the strong STJ continues to be the driving force for our weather. However, as mentioned earlier, this time the jet dynamics should be absent across the area with the strongest winds displaced from SW Louisiana and SE Texas. Conditions will quickly improve overnight Saturday into Sunday, and unlike its predecessor there will be a more significant cool down behind this system. The cooler and drier air filters in behind the boundary Saturday evening, and temperatures by Sunday morning will be in the upper 40s.

The second half of the week will certainly take the prize this weekend, just like last weekend! A stronger area of high pressure, and increased CAA takes over behind the Saturday cold front. Therefore, the 70s will be erased, and replaced with more seasonable temperatures Sunday. Sunny skies will prevail as the strong high dominated the weather across our Nation's mid-section. The will seal off the Gulf for a few days anyway, and the refreshing Northerly winds will provide for very dry and pretty weather through early next week. Sunday highs will be in the lower to middle 60s, a few categories cooler than that of Saturday. This will be great weather or any outdoor activities after church. It looks like great weather if you want to have a party for the Saints game or whatever. We will be reminded that it is still winter by Monday morning as morning lows fall into the 30s for the first time in a week. The controlling high pressure will continue to be orientated such that it will continually pull down a mix of Canadian and Polar air. After the cold start Monday, temperatures will remain a bit on the nippy side in here.Afternoon maxes should be in the mid to upper 50s. It is the Monday Night-Tuesday Morning period that should be the coldest period  as the high over the Rockies and Great Plains nestled in right over the area forecast. The reminder that it is still winter will be in full force as temperatures bottom out on the mid 30s. Tuesday should be another beautiful day with the high pressure in full force. Skies should remain sunny throughout day despite the return of a low-level flow. Afternoon highs should be right around the normal levels for late January. The active El Nino pattern continues, and another strong system will be approaching by day 7. The return flow will certainly become more pronounced, and clouds will increase on Wednesday. A warming trend will be realized as well. The models insist on the same scenario that we've had this week, where a warm front rides NNE out ahead of the digging and deepening trough. Morning lows for day 7 will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, while afternoon highs are near normal once again. Clouds will certainly be on the increase, but rain chances should remain absent from the forecast for one more day. The atmosphere will likely still be too dry to initiate any rain chances on Wednesday, and a firm cap will be place during the day as the main trigger mechanism and instability remain removed from the forecast area. The next significant chance of rain will affect the area just beyond this forecast period, next Thursday into Friday. A more pronounced warm up is expected, and depending on Jet Stream orientation severe weather may be an issue. Strong WAA could raise temperatures back to near 70 during the afternoon. Beyond this time frame, the active pattern continues with no rest for the weary. The active pattern will continue as the El Nino of 2009-2010 lives on. The overall pattern for temperatures favors below normal for the end of January through the first week of February. Winter is certainly not over, and we will be reminded of this as we get into February. I can hear a line from an old Don McLean song!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  54/73  45/70  50/73  40 0 0 0 0 40
LFT   56/73  44/71  49/73  40 0 0 0 0 40
BPT   55/74  46/72  52/75  40 0 0 0 0 40
AEX  52/72  42/68  47/72  60 0 0 0 0 60
POE  53/72  43/69  48/73  40 0 0 0 0 50
ARA  57/73  47/71  52/73  40 0 0 0 0 40


Tonight...Cloudy with areas of fog and scattered showers and thunderstorms until about midnight. Turning cooler and breezy with skies clearing after midnight. Low 54. SSW wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW 10-15 mph by midnight. Chance of rain 40%.

Thursday...Sunny. High 73. West wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 45. Calim wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 70. NE wind 5-10 mph, becoming East 10 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Clear with Patchy Fog forming. Low 50. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise becoming Mostly Cloudy and Windy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 73. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Thursday
1-21-10

Low: 54
High: 73
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 10


Friday
1-22-10

Low: 45
High: 70
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/E 5-10


Saturday
1-23-10

Low: 50
High: 73
Precip: 40% PM
Wind: SSE 10-15


Sunday
1-24-10

Low: 46
High: 64
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Monday
1-25-10

Low: 35
High: 56
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


Tuesday
1-27-10

Low: 39
High: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Wednesday
1-28-10

Low: 44
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

*Dense Fog Advisory.*

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Areas of dense fog. A chance of showers.

Thursday...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning.

Thursday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Friday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Saturday...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Severe Weather Threat Over...

The severe weather threat is over for SW Louisiana. The Tornado Watch, which was the first watch box of the new year, has expired. There is a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms quickly moving ESE through the forecast area tonight. This extends from a stronger area of showers and thunderstorms near Vicksburg, MS. It runs along a NE-SW line from Vicksburg to Marksville to Oakdale, and the activity becomes more spotty further SW on the line towards Lake Charles. All of this will clear SW Louisiana by midnight, and drier air will begin filtering into the region shortly thereafter. The severe weather threat has shifted into North Louisiana and across a good portion of Mississippi. Storm reports are still trickling in, but here are just a few.

This is the only storm report from our forecast area.

-A Tornado was reported 1 mile NW of Ville Platte. Cars were blown off the roadway into a ditch.

Here are some other reports of interest from around the state.

-1.75" hail (golf-balls) covering the ground on Cypress School Road in Monroe.

-Tornado near Natchitoches w/ trees reported down on Posey Road.

-1" hail (quarters) near Vixen in Caldwell Parish.

-Golf-ball sized hail reported in Shreveport at the Intersection of Hwy. 71 and Hwy. 1.

-Tornado and golf-ball sized hail near Loranger in Tangipahoa Parish. That's about 10 miles SE of Amite.


More reports to come over the next couple days.

The forecast package is coming up shortly.

-DM-

Severe Weather Event Underway...

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

The anticipated Pacific storm system is rolling through the forecast area this evening. Some tornado warnings were issued earlier for the NE portion of the forecast area. I will have a complete rundown of severe weather reports across the state later tonight.

*A Tornado Watch has been issued and is in effect for all parishes and counties North of I-10 until 10p.m.*

SE Texas Counties included in the watch are:

Hardin
Tyler
Jasper
Newton


SW Louisiana Parishes included are:

Rapides
Vernon
Beauregard
Allen
Evangeline
St. Landry
Avoyelles


The watch box continues further Northward and Eastward into the Shreveport, New Orleans, and Jackson NWS FA. It includes municipalities such as Jasper, Newton, DeRidder, Leesville-Fort Polk, Oakdale, Ville Platte, Eunice, Opelousas, Marksville, Natchez, MS, Natchitoches, Lufkin, TX, Jackson, MS, Slidell, Hammond, and Baton Rouge.

Currently the strongest storm is near Natchitoches. One strong thunderstorm is approaching the city of Lake Charles, but it is not severe at the moment.

So far, 2 tornadoes have been confirmed in Louisiana, along with several reports of large hail. Stay tuned throughout the evening for more updates!

-DM-

Severe Weather Threat Wednesday...Active El Nino Pattern to Continue Through the Weekend...

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

*Severe Weather Threat Wednesday.*

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The advancing potent Pacific storm system is on the way! Today was a day of continued transition with a very moist and unseasonably warm air mass residing over the forecast area. Clouds were present throughout the day with a few peaks of sun. The fog wasn't as much of an issue as previously thought due to enough atmospheric mixing overnight. Southerly winds pumped in Gulf moisture out ahead of the advancing trough today, and high temperatures were near the 70 day threshold for the first time all year. A few showers dotted the landscape late this afternoon and early this evening, but for the most part it has been another dry day. It should be an uneventful night weather wise on this Tuesday night as we await the potential severe weather tomorrow. Overcast skies will continue as will the low-level Gulf flow. This will result in the continuation of rising dew points, and increasing humidity. Overnight lows should be well above the normal for mid January. Minimums should drop into the upper 50s along the I-10 corridor, and mid 50s North, while the coastline holds up into the low to mid 60s. A small rain chance is indicated for the overnight hours as the moisture increases across the area, but a cap in the upper levels of the atmosphere tonight should limit rainfall activity to no more than a sprinkle or very light shower. Fog possibilities will be another forecast concern for tonight. Certainly, dense fog will occur over the coastal waters and just inland along the coast, but some of this fog will make it inland especially along and South of I-10. At this time, it doesn't appear that it's going to be very dense with the cloud cover in place and enough mixing to keep the atmosphere stirred up. However, the deep moist air mass should allow for some fog formation especially due to the temperature differences between land and water.

Wednesday is when our attention turns to the first possible severe weather event of the new year. The vigorous Southern Stream Pacific storm system and associated upper level low and trough will be moving into the region. Many of the ingredients necessary to produce severe weather are in place, and other will conglomerate on Wednesday to warrant the severe potential. The day should start dry with just some clouds and fog. Any fog will be a distant memory by mid-morning, and we'll be watching how things begin to unfold from the severe weather aspect. The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather for the day 2 period (Wednesday) by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. Each severe weather set up is a different animal, and there is always a fine line. Seasonal environments have to be considered as well. That being said, here is what I see...the aforementioned upper level low will only slowly lift NE, and disturbances emanating out ahead of it will be moving across the area. The prolonged Southerly fetch of the last couple of days has brought a plentiful moisture return to the area. There will be sufficient instability in place with the possibility of low 60 dew points across the area. I believe the greatest amount of instability will be just to our East from parts of Acadiana over towards New Orleans.

Convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of Texas, rain and embedded thunderstorms is currently ongoing from near Dallas up into Oklahoma. This activity will advance and build to the SE through the night and on Wednesday morning as the trough approaches. The dynamics appear to be lacking over SE Texas, so that area should see not much more than just a few thunderstorms. The ingredients to produce the severe weather look like they will congeal right over SW Louisiana, and since it appears we'll be right on the line of where the greatest instability will be, that is why I believe the greatest threat will be over Acadiana. Rain and thunderstorms should begin to affect the region Wednesday afternoon, and continue through the evening hours. It won't rain constantly during that time, but there could very well be 2-3 different times that it rains. There really isn't the presence of a cold front associated with this system, so a classic MCS set up is not expected. However, with the upper level energy in place the environment may be more conducive to supercellular development. The upper level low will generate cold air aloft, which creates an unstable air mass. This often leads to a threat of large hail. The surface based winds will be out of the SE, while winds aloft out ahead of the ULL will be coming from the SW, and this will create shear (rotation) in the atmosphere, therefore the threat for a few tornadoes will be realized. The atmospheric profile suggests that damaging wind will be the greatest threat across the area. The amount of wind shear will be greater to our East, therefore, the aforementioned area will have a higher risk of tornadoes. The strong left-front quad (LFQ) of the Subtropical Jet Stream (STJ) will be positioned right over the area. This will make conditions favorable for damaging winds. The winds could be on the order of 70-80 mph in the strongest storms. Daytime heating will also add to the fray, as the primary threat hours for this event should be between 4p.m. and 10p.m. Certainly some scattered showers will occur before this time, but the main lobe of energy associated with this system will be crossing the area during that 6 hr. period. January is not a climatoligically favored month for severe weather, but often times in an El Nino pattern it can produce a significant severe weather event in January. Pinpointing exactly where there's going to be severe weather, and where there just be a general thunderstorm is near impossible. I would suspect that there will be multiple reports of severe weather across the state Wednesday through Wednesday night. A factor of inhibition will be the cloud cover as not much in the way of sunshine is expected. Sunshine would of course heat the atmosphere up even further, and would therefore increase instability. The severe weather threat will end overnight Wednesday as the Pacific trough moves through. Like I said, there's not really a cold front associated with this system, so while drier air will move in, it will remain warm. For Wednesday, highs should reach the low to mid 70s as the unseasonable warmth continues. Gusty winds are in the offing as well with the deepening pressures across the area. South winds over 25 mph at times are possible. Rain chances will be likely across the area, but not maxed out. The system is a quick mover thanks to the fast zonal flow across the area, so rainfall totals should be less than inch. Here is some graphical representation.

 

Beyond Wednesday, the forecast improves, but the active pattern continues as well. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible for a good portion of Wednesday night, but rapid clearing should occur as the trough lifts out and we remain in between Pacific systems. High pressure takes over for Thursday with skies becoming sunny. Temperatures will remain above normal with a morning low in the mid 50s, while highs make it feel so much like Spring. Highs should reach or exceed 75. The high pressure remains in control for Friday, and this should result in a beautiful end to the work week. A "coolish" start on Friday with a low in the mid 40s is looking about right at this time. Sunny skies and lower humidity values for Friday will result in a large diurnal range with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s Acadiana. The active pattern in place means we'll experience fast changes, and that will certainly be the case again beginning late Friday. Friday will continue to be dry, no doubt, however a return flow of Gulf moisture will commence Friday night, and this will of course bring back the humidity. Friday night will remain clear, but temperatures will be back into the 50s. Fog could be an issue as well for this period, but later forecasts will determine such a possibility. The weekend starts dry on Saturday with just increasing clouds, humidity, and wind as yet another potent Pacific storm moves across the country embedded into the Southern Stream. Saturday maximums should once again reach the lower 70s as the warm and unstable air mass rolls on. It is too early to be specific about details this far in advance  as far as dynamics are concerned, and I suggest we get past tomorrow's severe weather potential first. The bottom line is that, the next in the continuing parade of systems will cross the area likely overnight Saturday. It will bring with it a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will follow this system, and the end result will be a pattern shift to more typical January weather.

Conditions markedly improve on Sunday as a large area of high pressure builds in as the trough shifts East. A CAA regime should be firmly entrenched by Sunday afternoon, and you can expect a high in the mid 60s after a morning low in the upper 40s. Sunday evening looks great if you have any outdoor plans to get ready for the Saints game. Even cooler weather will trickle down into the forecast area through the end of the forecast period. We'll be back in coats and long sleeves by Sunday as the colder, more seasonable air moves in behind the latest in a series of Pacific troughs. The lows for Monday and Tuesday mornings will be back in the frosty category in the mid 30s, and will flirt with freezing especially across the Northern half of the forecast area in the typical colder spots. The air will be a combination of Pacific and Canadian air, and it will remain chilly during the afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 50s. The colder and drier weather at the first of next week, may result in a temporary break down of the persistent El Nino pattern that we've seen so far this winter. A dry forecast is expected for Sunday-Tuesday. Re-enforcing surges of cool air will filter down the spine of the Rockies next week, to keep it cool and dry. Towards the end of the week moderation should occur, and you guessed, another El Nino type storm system should be in the offing. Winter isn't over as there are many signs that point to another Arctic blast during the first week of February. It is way too early to tell how cold it will be. Don't put away your winter clothes yet! Stay tuned for more on the severe weather potential for Wednesday!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
  

LCH  59/71  55/75  46/70  20 80 60 0 0 0
LFT   58/72  57/74  45/70  20 80 70 0 0 0
BPT   62/73  54/76  47/71  30 80 60 0 0 0
AEX  58/74  50/72  42/67  20 80 70 0 0 0
POE  58/74  51/72  43/68  20 80 70 0 0 0
ARA  57/73  57/73  47/70  20 80 70 0 0 0   


Tonight...Cloudy with a few showers possible. Dense Fog forming after midnight. Low 59. SE wind 10 mph. Chance of measurable precipitation 20%.

Wednesday...Fog and/or low clouds early, dissipating by mid-morning, otherwise Mostly Cloudy, Warm, & Windy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe weather possible in the afternoon. High 71. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely with locally heavy rainfall and severe weather possible in the evening. Rain ending with clearing skies overnight. Low 55. SSW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 75. West wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 46. Light North wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 70. NE wind 10 mph becoming SE.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Wednesday
1-20-10

Low: 59
High: 71
Precip: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Thursday
1-21-10

Low: 55
High: 75
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 10-15


Friday
1-22-10

Low: 46
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10


Saturday
1-23-10

Low: 51
High: 74
Precip: 30% PM...70% Overnight
Wind: SSE 10-15


Sunday
1-24-10

Low: 47
High: 62
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20


Monday
1-25-10

Low: 36
Hiigh: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10


Tuesday
1-26-10

Low: 34
High: 53
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Areas of dense fog after midnight.

Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...West winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-