*The following discussions and forecasts are in no way, shape, or form affiliated with the NWS or any other meteorological agency. All information on this web site is based on my own forecasts, unless otherwise documented.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather was pretty status quo around the forecast area for mid-August this weekend, but while things were quiet around here, the tropics really fired up...more on that shortly. Temperatures were near seasonal in the low to mid 90s, and rain chances were about normal as well around 30-40%. A better coverage of showers and thunderstorms existed across the area today as Moisture increased thanks to a deep fetch of tropical moisture surging North and Eastward from the Gulf combined with the usual sea breeze advecting inland around lunch time. This was in response to the ridge shifting back to the West, and to the advancement of newly formed Tropical Storm Claudette in the NE Gulf. There's also an upper level low moving NW across the Gulf waters as well. This all combined to produce the aforementioned influx of deeper moisture. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated for the night, but some isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out after midnight with all the moisture in place.
Rain chances will increase further for the next couple of days as the deep Gulf flow continues across the area, and some of the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Claudette advects into the area around the backside of the circulation. The majority of the heavy rainfall and flooding potential associated with Claudette will remain well East of the forecast area over Alabama and Florida. Enhanced moisture will keep rain chances above normal for Monday and Tuesday. As Claudette moves inland East of the area, and moves inland and weakens, rain chances will eventually tone down back to near normal for Wednesday. Temperatures will be slightly cooler the next couple of days as well due to the increased shower and thunderstorm activity. Highs will be in the lower 90s, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. About half to a little more than half the area should see some shower and thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday.
The latter half of the work week's forecast highly depends on what happens in the tropics. For now, here's what I'll go with...the persistent Western ridge will nudge into the area in the wake of the departing Claudette, but the Bermuda High will be building Westward at the same time, so drier air moves into the region, but the sea breeze will still help to initiate a few showers and thunderstorms during the peak heating hours. Temperatures will also increase a category or two at this time with the drier air in place. Mid 90s are forecasted for much of the area at this time, with upper 90s in the hottest locations. Some forecast models show a rare August cool front moving through late next weekend or early in the following work week, so we'll see about that, not forecasting that at this time. A typical August weather pattern will round out this forecast period next weekend barring any effects from the tropics, which is where I turn attention to now:
Tropics:
After a very quiet first 2 months of the season, things have really fired up here in mid-August. This is right on cue as we enter into prime time for the next 6 weeks or so. We currently have 3 active storms, and I will break them down one by one. Let's work backwards a bit.
Tropical Storm Claudette:
The third named storm of the season, and the 3rd of the weekend, will be the first one to make landfall in 2009. Tropical Storm Claudette formed quite rapidly overnight into this morning (Sunday). It developed from a persistent area of showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean and SE Gulf the last couple of days. A surface low began forming on Saturday evening, and it deepened quickly overnight, closing off into a Tropical Depression early this morning. Strengthening continued and Tropical Storm Claudette was born around dawn. As quick as it developed, it will be dying out. It will be making landfall early Monday on the coast in the Florida Panhandle. Landfall looks to be very near Destin, FL...between Pensacola and Panama City. Here's the 10p.m. advisory and other important points on Claudette:
*All the following information is via the National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Claudette:
10p.m. Sunday, August 16, 2009
30.2 N
86.1 W
This is about 20 miles W of Panama City, Florida or 70 miles ESE of Pensacola, FL.
Moving: NW @ 12 mph and on this track landfall will occur within the next few hours between Pensacola and Destin, FL.
Winds: 50 mph with higher gusts w/ tropical storm force winds extending outward to 70 miles from the center mainly.
Pressure: 29.77" or 1008 mb.
-Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for the Panhandle of Florida from the Alabama/Florida Border to the Aucilla River. Inland Tropical Storm Wind Warnings extend well inland across the Florida Panhandle to portions of Southern and Central Alabama up to the city of Montgomery. These are in effect through Monday.
-A wind gust of 53 mph was reported at Apalachicola, FL...the highest wind gust reported thus far with Claudette.
-Rainfall amounts of 3-6" are expected across the Florida Panhandle, The Big Bend Region of Florida, SE and Central Alabama, and SW Georgia with isolated amounts of 10" possible through Monday.
Here's some images for Claudette:
*Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL*
*From the NHC
Claudette will move inland early Monday, and continue on a NW track into Western Alabama and Eastern Mississippi Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall is expected along and East of the center of circulation as it rains itself out. Remnant moisture from Claudette will help to enhance rain chances across our area through Tuesday, but once Claudette is inland later tonight, it will dissipate nearly as rapidly as it formed on Saturday night. Direct impacts from this storm are not expected across the forecast area.
Watch Claudette Move Inland
Tropical Depression Ana:
Ana has struggled from the get go. It first developed last week from a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa, and became Tropical Depression 2, then de-generated for about 24 hours, and then was re-classified Friday night as Tropical Depression 2, and enough intensification occurred on Saturday for it to be classified as Tropical Storm Ana, the first named storm of the 2009 season. The fight for survival for Ana continues tonight, as it has once again been downgraded to a Tropical Depression. There are several factors working in opposition of Ana. Ana is moving rapidly towards the West tonight through the Caribbean Islands. It is also ingesting a lot of dry air located to the West of the circulation. Ana may not even survive as she treks through the Caribbean, and interacts with the island nations. The National Hurricane Center is still writing advisories on this system, but if the current trends continue, advisories may be discontinued Monday.
Tropical Depression Ana:
10p.m. Sunday, August 16, 2009
16.0 N
61.2 W
This is 25 miles SE of Guadeloupe.
Moving: WNW @ 26 mph. This general motion, and a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur Monday or Tuesday. On this track Ana will move across the NE Caribbean Sea and approach Hispaniola Monday.
Winds: 35 mph. Little change in strength is forecast over the next 24 hours, and Ana may degenerate into a tropical wave Monday.
Pressure: 29.77" or 1008 mb.
-A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the following locations in the Caribbean: Puerto Rico, The U.S. & British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Antigua, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Saba, St. Eustatius, Gaudeloupe, St. Barthelemy, & The Dominican Repbulic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Beata.
-Ana will produce 2-4" of rainfall over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, & the British & U.S. Virgin Islands with isolated amounts of up to 6" over mountainous terrain.
Ana's struggles will continue as it races WNW through the Caribbean. Just exactly how much time it spends and how of the landmasses of the Caribbean will be a big factor in determining if the low-level circulation will survive. If the LLC does survive, what's left of Ana will likely emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon. It should remain a weak system, and is currently forecast to only be a remnant low once in the Gulf. The eventual forecast track takes it towards the Central Gulf of Mexico coast late next weekend. The leftover moisture from Ana, or perhaps a regenerated Ana could impact someone along the Gulf coast next weekend if this forecast track is correct with effects of Ana possible around here not out of the realm of possibility.
Here's some graphics for Ana:
Tropical Storm Bill:
Like its predecessor, Ana, Bill formed from a tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa. Unlike, its predecessor, Bill has not struggled at all. It is on the threshold of hurricane status tonight, and will become a hurricane on Monday. The majority of forecast models indicate Bill will miss the Gulf of Mexico, and likely recurve before effecting the continental U.S., but an East Coast hit can't be ruled out. A strong ridge of high pressure over the Eastern Atlantic waters will be weakening on its Western edge which is near Bermuda now. This should help recurvature ensue by the middle part of the week. At this time, Bill is forecast to be a major hurricane. We will continue to watch it for any drastic change, but as of this time the news is very good with Bill.
Tropical Storm Bill:
10p.m. Sunday, August 16, 2009
13.4 N
41.7 W
This is 1,320 miles E of the Lesser Antilles.
Moving: WNW @ 20 mph, and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next 24-48 hours.
Winds: 70 mph w/ higher gusts- Bill has continued to strengthened today, and will become the first hurricane of the 2009 season on Monday. Tropical Storm force extend outward to 140 miles from the center.
Pressure: 29.23" or 990 mb.
Forecast Track and Other Graphics for Bill:
Preliminary Numbers and Zone Forecasts Follow:
LCH 76/91 76/90 76/92 10 60 20 60 20 30
LFT 77/90 76/90 77/92 10 60 20 60 20 30
AEX 75/92 75/91 75/95 0 50 10 60 10 30
BPT 77/92 76/91 76/93 0 50 10 50 10 30
POE 75/92 75/91 75/94 0 50 10 60 10 30
ARA 77/90 76/89 78/91 10 60 20 60 20 30
Tonight...Mostly Clear. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible towards morning. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Monday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms once again. High 90. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 76. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 92. SE wind 10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Monday
8-17-09
76/91/60
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High
Tuesday
8-18-09
76/90/60
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High
Wednesday
8-19-09
76/92/30
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
8-20-09
75/95/20
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
8-21-09
75/96/20
Wind: South 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
8-22-09
75/95/30
Wind: ENE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-23-09
76/94/30
Wind: E 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
*The latter stages of this forecast are subject to change based on the tropics!!!
Marine Forecast:
Tonight...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lake Charles Climate Summary for Sunday, August 16, 2009
Low: 77 Normal Low: 74 Record Low: 62-2004
High: 91 Normal High: 91 Record High: 102-1951
Rainfall Today: 0.00"
Month: 2.39" Normal Month to Date: 2.35"
Year: 36.10" Normal Year to Date: 35.59"
Sunrise Monday: 6:41a.m.
Sunset Monday: 7:52p.m.
-DM-
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