*The information on this web site is in way associated with any meteorological organization unless otherwise specified. Your questions and comments are always welcome.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Dry air continues to filter into the region tonight in the wake of the frontal boundary that moved into the coastal waters early in the weekend. High pressure from Canada is in complete control of the weather across the Eastern half of the country, and a deep trough for August persists across this region. This trough digs down into the Gulf waters, and then Eastward and up over the Atlantic waters off the U.S. East Coast. This same trough helped to steer Hurricane Bill off to the N well E of the Eastern U.S. this weekend. Dry and pleasant weather is in store tonight with refreshing temperatures well down into the 60s across much of the area. The coolest locations north of I-10 will see readings in the 60-65 range while here along I-10 readings range from 63-68. Coastal locations will see the warmest readings near 70. The further North and East you go, the cooler it will be...as the drier air is deeper and more pronounced across those areas, due to the alignment of the frontal boundary. The front pulled up stationary from near Houston into the coastal waters, and across the Gulf through Central Florida, but it has wavered back and forth for the last couple of days. Some cloud cover associated with this front has moved into portions of the area, as the moist air tries to work back in, but the majority of this is over Western portions of the forecast area. The moist air should remain to the West of the Sabine. However, the cloud cover will likely prevent locations such as Lake Charles from reaching the mid 60s. Areas on the warm, moist side of the boundary could run the risk of seeing an isolated shower overnight or on Tuesday, but overall a dry forecast is maintained.
A refreshing start is in store for Tuesday will likely the coolest readings since the front came through, and many areas will see their coolest morning since early June. Calm winds and clear skies for most of the area will allow for some radiational cooling tonight with the dry air in place. Some recording sites could flirt with record lows mainly Alexandria. Mostly sunny to Partly Cloudy skies are anticipated for Tuesday with the continued dominant Canadian high in place. No chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected. It will still be hot in the afternoon of course, after all it is still August, but the humidity will be low once again with readings in the 30-40% range...quite bearable indeed. High temperatures will near seasonable values near 90. Another pleasant night is expected Tuesday night with lows down into the 60s once again, before we start a humidifying trend during mid week.
Rain chances will remain absent from the forecast for the next few days as high pressure dominates, but one feature to watch for later portions of this forecast period that will ensue rain chances by the end of the work week is currently situated near the base of the Appalachians. It is embedded in the deep Eastern trough. It is an upper level low. This feature will retrograde through the Mid-South, and creep towards the Lower Mississippi Valley later this week. As it moves closer to the area, rain chances will return as it causes moisture to increase from the Gulf of Mexico. This should occur starting Thursday, but will be more pronounced by Friday and Saturday. With the ULL in close proximity, a typical summer pattern is expected for this period with the afternoon sea breeze producing the usual scattering of showers and thunderstorms. With the moisture influx and humidity increasing, temperatures will moderate to seasonable for both lows and highs with readings in the low to mid 70s for lows and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
While the slow moving ULL will affect our weather at the end of the week, another feature comes into play at that time as well. The deep trough currently in place should persist across a large portion of the country East of the Rockies. This should allow for another cool front to move towards the area. Models are still contemplating whether or not this one makes it through the area or not over the weekend, but it should at least be close enough to increase rain chances further especially for Saturday. This will bring about the best chance of rainfall during this forecast period, and for the rest of the month as well. As the front moves further South, it will slow down its forward speed as it becomes more and more displaced from the steering currents. It will creep into the area Saturday, and for now I will forecast that the front barely makes it through the area. It should eventually wash out close to the forecast area by early next week. Whether or not the front makes it through the area, drier air is forecast to move back into the area late in the weekend into early next week as ridging processes intensify across the Gulf Coastal Plain from Texas. This will thwart rain chances at this time, and at this time the temperatures shown will reflect the effects of another cool front. If said front makes it through, conditions will be very similar to what we are currently experiencing.
Tropics:
Hurricane Bill is no more. Bill affected the East Coast over the weekend with rough seas and large swells, but that's about it. It did brush by the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night as a category 1 storm bringing squalls and high winds to that region before racing off to the ENE over the colder waters of the Atlantic where it is losing its tropical characteristics. What's left of Bill will continue moving swiftly through the Northern Atlantic this week, and possibly bring some high winds and squalls to portions of the United Kingdom later this week.
Elsewhere, there are a couple of potential areas of development at this time. One area is a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms in association with a tropical wave that is interacting with an upper level low. This area is about 300 miles to the ENE of the Leeward Islands. Conditions appear to be becoming favorable for development of this system over the next couple of days. It will continue moving off the WNW rather quickly at about 25 mph for the next couple of days. Models are currently being run on this system, and I will display that output momentarily. This system may develop this week, but it appears that this system will not be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico because of the sharp trough in place at this time. The troughs almost always protect the Gulf rim from being affected by a tropical system when in this position.
Elsewhere...another area of disturbed weather has flared up in the Western Caribbean off the Eastern coast of Central America. The area of low pressure associated with this system is broad at the moment, and any development of this system should be slow, especially since it is in close proximity to land. This system should continue moving Westward, and on this track it should move over Central America on Tuesday. It will bring heavy rains to this region through Tuesday. Once it crosses Central America it should emerge into the Pacific Ocean later this week, and will have the potential to develop on that side.
Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast Follows:
LCH 68/90 67/91 68/91 0 0 0 0 0 10
LFT 65/90 66/91 67/91 0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX 61/91 63/91 66/92 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 70/89 69/91 71/92 0 0 0 0 0 10
POE 63/91 64/91 67/92 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 66/90 67/91 68/90 0 0 0 0 0 10
Tonight...Partly Cloudy and Pleasant. Low 68. Calm Wind.
Tuesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 90. East wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 67. Light East wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 91. ESE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 68. Calm wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. High 91. SE wind 5-10 mph.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
8-25-09
65/90/0
Wind: E 5-10
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
8-26-09
67/91/0 Wind: ESE 5-10 H.I.: 89-94 U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
8-27-09
68/91/10
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
8-28-09
71/92/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
8-29-09
73/89/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 10- High
Sunday
8-30-09
72/90/20
Wind: SW/NW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
8-31-09
67/88/0
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: 87-92
U.V.: 11- Very High
*Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles:
Tonight...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...E-SE winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Isolated showers.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Isolated showers.
Thursday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
*Climate Data- Courtesy of NWS Lake Charles:
Monday, August, 24, 2009
Low: 71 Normal Low: 73 Record Low: 62-1930
High: 90 Normal High: 91 Record High: 102-1924
Rainfall Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 4.95" Normal Month to Date: 3.61"
Year to Date: 38.66" Normal Year to Date: 36.85"
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 7:43p.m.
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment