*The following discussions and forecasts are in no way, shape, or form affiliated with the National Weather Service or any other meteorological organization. All information on this web site is based on my own knowledge and forecasts, unless otherwise documented. Please feel free to leave your questions and comments below.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The fetch of deep tropical moisture continued across the area today, and numerous showers and thunderstorms resulted. One such thunderstorm produced a rare August tornado in Beaumont. This thunderstorm was just a regular summer time storm, as there were no ingredients in place to produce severe weather. This one thunderstorm moved inland along the sea breeze, and collided with other boundaries from other storms in the area. This helped generate just a small amount of rotation in the atmosphere that fed into the storm over Beaumont. The rotation was low-level and was not detected by any radar sites, either the NWS LCH or HGX office or any of the Local TV station Doppler Radars. It was a small tornado, and several photos and videos of the tornado have been submitted to local TV stations and the NWS. The tornado moved through a largely populated area, and one of the busiest sections of Beaumont. It formed and moved through the W and NW side of Beaumont in the vicinity of Parkdale Mall. The tornado was small in size, but was fairly strong for SE Texas, and especially for August around these parts. The confirmed tornado touched down just before 2p.m. Here's a brief summary of the damage caused by this rare August tornado.
-Significant roof damage at the Kohl's Department Store. Many cars were flipped over at Wal-Mart. Many of them sustained damage from flying debris. Several injuries were reported mainly due to flying debris, but none were life-threatening.
-The tornado caused damage to Barnes & Noble Bookstore & Petco Shopping Centers. Several businesses at Parkdale Mall were damaged including Macy's.
-Tornado was about 100 yards wide, and the path length was about 1 mile.
As stated, this is a very rare event for August especially without the presence of a tropical system or any dynamics to produce severe weather. An official survey of the damage was conducted by the National Weather Service here in Lake Charles, and a full report on the Tornado will be available later tonight or on Wednesday. The official rating of the tornado will be released at this time as well, but based on personal observations from video and the damage, it looks like an EF1.
I have included a few links where you can read or see more about today's tornado:
Channel 6- Beaumont
Channel 12- Beaumont
Now continuing with the rest of the forecast discussion...Not much change in the current pattern is expected on Wednesday as the deep moisture from the Gulf remains in place. This will once again generate an above normal coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. The deep tropical air mass is conducive to the development of short-lived funnel clouds, which rarely touch down. These often form along the sea breeze as it moves inland, and thunderstorms develop. Activity will be most numerous in the afternoon hours as usual, but it is not limited to the afternoon hours, and there will be some development during the morning. Some overnight/early morning activity can't be ruled out for coastal areas as showers and thunderstorms will redevelop over the Gulf overnight with such a rich tropical air mass in place. When this occurs, overnight regeneration is quite common. It should be relatively quiet overnight for the majority of the forecast area with very muggy conditions in place.
Temperatures will be kept down below normal to near normal once again on Thursday in response to the continued better than average coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity. Expect highs to range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Some sunshine will occur early in the morning, and in between showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. It will be very similar to today, with the possibility of rain on more than one occasion at your particular location. As usual during summer, rainfall amounts will vary greatly, but the majority of us will see measurable rainfall once again. Some areas that get the heaviest rainfall could see about 2" of rain in a short time. With a very stagnant upper air pattern as well, storm movement will be slow, hence the possibility of someone receiving up to 2" of rain. The deep tropical moisture will be slow to vacate the area, so decent rain chances are expected again on Thursday. Highs will be right around normal then, with a little more sunshine on tap before the atmosphere is rung out like a sponge once again.
A change is on the way for the end of the work week, the deep tropical moisture will slowly be replaced by Friday, but rain chances may increase again to close out the work week as a deep trough develops across the Mid West and Eastern U.S. This will allow for a cold front to move into the area on Friday into Saturday. With all the moisture in place ahead of this boundary, showers and thunderstorms will once again by likely. This front will slow down, and limp through the area by Saturday with a lack of Jet Stream support to push it along. This front is currently en route coming out of the Rockies into the Great Plains as of this writing with ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across this area, including some severe weather from the Texas Panhandle to Nebraska. This will all advect Eastward overnight and on Wednesday, and a severe weather outbreak is possible from Central Oklahoma to Northern Iowa into Western Illinois. The dynamics producing this severe weather outbreak will move East through the Mid West, and not be a factor across SW Louisiana. The enhanced clouds and moisture will once again help to keep temperatures near average in the low 90s.
The front finally flounders its way entirely through the forecast area by Saturday with shower and thunderstorm chances dwindling as drier air moves in behind the front. Before you get too excited about a cool front in August, I should tell you that it won't really cool off all that much...maybe a degree or two especially in the morning. The most noticeable difference behind the boundary will be lower humidity, making it feel more pleasant. High temperatures will still be in the 90s over the weekend. Rain chances will be eliminated from the forecast entirely by Sunday. This will last into the start of the new work week with the drier air slow to retreat with an established NWly flow behind the weak boundary. This will also help to serve as protection or a blocking mechanism from any tropical activity that may develop. The dominating Western ridge, I've talked about many times this summer will be firmly entrenched off to our West this weekend, and will slowly try to build Eastward again next week. Rain chances will be absent from the latter periods of this forecast as well.
Tropics:
Hurricane Bill is the only game in town tonight in the tropics. Ana fizzled out on Monday, and is just an open wave perusing the Caribbean in the vicinity of Cuba tonight. It will continue to trek WNW through Wednesday, and emerge into the Gulf either late Wednesday or on Thursday. Some regeneration can't be ruled out, but it is not expected at this point. We will monitor this area for such an occurrence. The leftovers of Ana could increase moisture across the area ahead of the frontal boundary, but the majority of the remnant moisture should be well to our East by Friday and Saturday.
Hurricane Bill: Bill is now not only the first hurricane of the 2009 season, but it's also the first major hurricane of the 2009 season. Bill has been in an explosive development stage this evening, but remains over the open Atlantic several hundred miles East of the Lesser Antilles. The good news is that Bill is forecast to turn to the NW and eventually North and head out to sea by the end of the week. Bill may pose a threat to Bermuda by the weekend, and a threat to the New England States or Canadian Maritimes can't be ruled out towards early next week. Bill continues to move WNW tonight, but will begin to make a Northward turn in a couple of days as he feels the effects of a weakening ridge over the Atlantic currently situated East of Bermuda.
*The following is courtesy of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.
Hurricane Bill:
10p.m. Tuesday, August 18, 2009
17.2 N
53.4 W
This position is about 555 miles E of the Lesser Antilles.
Moving: WNW @ 15 mph...A gradual turn to the NW is anticipated on Wednesday. On this track, Bill, a very dangerous hurricane, will be passing well to the NE of the Northern Leeward Islands late Wednesday into Thursday.
Winds: 125 mph- Category 3. Additional Strengthening is expected for the next 24 hours, and Bill could obtain Category 4 status on Wednesday. Bill is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending outward to 45 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 175 miles from the center.
Pressure: 28.11" or 952 mb.
Large swells and waves will impact the islands of the Northeastern Caribbean for the next couple of days.
Forecast Track and Other Graphics for Bill:
Elsewhere in the tropics, all is quiet for the time being.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast Follows:
LCH 75/90 75/92 76/91 20 70 20 40 20 60
LFT 76/90 76/91 75/91 20 70 20 40 20 50
BPT 76/90 77/92 76/92 20 70 20 40 20 60
AEX 74/92 75/93 75/94 10 60 10 50 10 60
POE 75/92 75/93 75/93 10 60 10 50 10 60
ARA 76/90 77/91 76/91 20 70 10 40 10 60
Tonight...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Low 75. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 90. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly after midnight. Low 75. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 92. South wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light South wind.
Friday...Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 91. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
8-19-09
75/90/70
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 9- High
Thursday
8-20-09
75/92/40
Wind: South 5-10
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High
Friday
8-21-09
76/91/60
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High
Saturday
8-22-09
73/93/30
Wind: SE/NW 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-23-09
69/91/0
Wind: North 5-10
H.I.: 92-97
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
8-24-09
68/91/0
Wind: N 5-10
H.I.: 92-97
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
8-25-09
70/92/0
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
*Marine Forecast Courtesy of the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, LA
Tonight...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...South winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night...South winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...South winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...South winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
*Official Climate Summary for Lake Charles courtesy of NWS Lake Charles:
Lake Charles Climate Summary for Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Low: 77 Normal Low: 74 Record Low: 66-1992
High: 86 Normal High: 91 Record High: 105-1909
Rainfall Today: 0.16"
Month to Date: 3.16" Normal Month to Date: 2.65"
Year to Date: 36.87" Normal Year to Date: 35.89"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:43a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:50p.m.
-DM-
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