The prolonged dry spell continues, but the big story around our part of the world continues to be the Gulf Oil Spill. The winds and currents over the Gulf will continue to dictate the flow of the oil and oil residue. The current projections are for the leading edge of the oil slick to be approaching Atchafalaya Bay by Friday. More information is available at the following link.
Gulf Oil Spill
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Can we buy a raindrop anytime soon? That continues to be the $85,000 question. I will have the answer in a moment. First, today was another day in the continuous string of dry weather with Mostly Cloudy skies in the morning giving way to Mostly Sunny by late afternoon. It felt very much like a SW Louisiana Summer day, but of course null and void from the equation was the usual afternoon hit or miss thunderstorms. However, there was a pseudo sea-breeze that moved inland today. This is what helped the transition to Mostly Sunny skies across the forecast area by late afternoon. High temperatures touched 90 in many areas including right here in Lake Charles, this came after morning lows in the mid 70s across the area. The breeze was the only thing that kept it somewhat bearable today as Southerly winds blew in the 15 mph range on average. Quiet weather is in store tonight with lows down into the 70s again, and skies remaining clear until after midnight when a morning low cloud deck will re-develop.
Same song, same verse for Wednesday...the iPod is on repeat! The early morning low cloud deck will break up and give way to Partly to Mostly Sunny skies. A pseudo sea breeze is expected once again with the continued southerly fetch off the Gulf. The mid and upper level ridging will remain strong over the area, and continue to thwart any possibility of an afternoon thunderstorm. Maximums will reach near normal once again with readings expected to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The coolest locations will be at the coast, while the warmest locations will be North of I-10 further removed from the Gulf of Mexico (very typical of a summer afternoon). We need some rain as the drought continues to worsen across the area, but we will have to watch someone else get the rain we need for yet another day. Another short wave ejecting out from a major Western trough will swing through the Rockies tonight, and enter the Great Plains tomorrow. This will likely pose the possibility of another significant tornado outbreak across the heart of Tornado Alley as was the case on Monday. This similar system will ignite the West Texas dry line once again, and emanate NE out ahead of a slow moving cold front coming out of the Rockies. This front will come into play for our weather later in the forecast period.
The pattern of persistence will hang in through Friday with not much day to day variation wrt temperatures and sky conditions. An early morning low cloud deck is expected each morning, and this will give way to the Partly to Mostly Sunny skies mentioned above as daytime heating and winds combine to produce mixing of the atmosphere. The pseudo sea breeze scenario could also play out through Friday. The mid and upper level ridging in place will only slowly weaken, thus no rain chances are mentioned through the end of the work week. Temperature uniformity is expected as well with 70s for lows and upper 80s to near 90 for highs. It will remain on the breezy side for the latter half of the work week as storm systems continue to march across the country to our North, with only a slow SE progression of the Rockies trough towards our area.
Now, the weekend....The pattern breaks down and shifts just enough such that rain chances can return to the forecast. The upper and mid level ridging will try to hold firm, and it very well could especially Saturday, but at the same time the staggering cold front that will be producing severe weather outbreaks across Tornado Alley will be approaching the area. This boundary will co-exist with advancing short waves and additional atmospheric moisture to produce the chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon hours. These systems will aid in the weakening of the atmospheric cap. Better chances for shower & thunderstorm activity seem to be in order for the Sunday-Monday time frame as the front limps toward the coastline, and ejecting short waves continue to sprawl across the area. This will hopefully provide some much needed rainfall across these parts. The forcing appears to be strong enough to produce the possibility of rain, although the front is rather fickle. There does not appear to be any threat for organized severe weather across the forecast area during this time frame, although some isolated severe cells can't be ruled. Further evaluation of this possibility will be forthcoming in the days ahead. Rain chances could rise into the likely category for Sunday and/or Monday based on future model runs, but for now 30-40% seems like a logical call on percentages. Some drier air filters in behind the late season (almost out of season) cold front on Tuesday, thus in turn cutting off rain chances once again as high pressure is re-established over the Gulf South. The temperature regime for the weekend and early next week will be a familiar one with highs reaching the upper 80s while morning lows may cool off a degree or two mainly because of the prospects of rain. On Tuesday, the drier air may result in temperatures being a bit more refreshing in the mid 60s as opposed to the lower 70s across the area. All in all, a temperature regime that offers uniformity is expected for the entire forecast period. The prolonged dry period looks to continue in the extended, with no more than just day to day variations in the synoptic set up to dictate whether or not we will have a chance of afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day. This is what we rely on for the majority of our rainfall during our long summer season from May to September.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 74/90 73/89 72/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 73/90 73/89 72/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 75/91 73/90 73/89 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 70/92 70/91 69/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 70/91 70/90 69/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 75/88 74/89 73/87 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Clear becoming Mostly Cloudy late. Low 74. South wind 10 mph.
Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy early, becoming Mostly Sunny. High 90. South wind 15-20 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 73. South wind 10 mph.
Thursday...Mostly to Partly Sunny. High 89. South wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. South wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday 5/12/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 13
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 17
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 20
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 18
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 14
Drew's 7 Day Forecast
Wednesday
5-12-10
Low: 74
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Thursday
5-13-10
Low: 73
High: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Friday
5-14-10
Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 92-97
Saturday
5-15-10
Low: 72
High: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 90-95
Sunday
5-16-10
Low: 71
Rain: 40%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 88-93
Monday
5-17-10
Low: 70
High: 85
Rain: 40%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
Tuesday
5-18-10
Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 3:09a.m. 11:31p.m.
High: 9:44a.m. 8:26p.m.
...Toledo Bend...
170.40'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Low: 76
Normal Low: 64
Record Low: 50-1981
High: 90
Normal High: 83
Record High: 91-1916
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.10"
Normal Month to Date: 1.94"
Year to Date: 9.49"
Normal Year to Date: 17.92"
Record: 4.14"-1971
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 71
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 66
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 76
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:21a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:58p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Friday May 14
First Quarter- Thursday May 20
Full Moon- Thursday May 27
Last Quarter- Friday June 4
Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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