Friday, May 7, 2010

Persistent Prolonged Dry Spell to Prevail...

Thursday, May 6, 2010

On this National Day of Prayer, let us pray for our family and friends...that they will always be there for us, and us for them as well. Pray that they live long, happy, and healthy lives. Let us pray for our nation and our leaders, no matter what our political affiliation. We pray that they make decisions for the good of our country, and decisions that our faith based, and God driven. Pray for the brave men & women of the U.S. military wherever they are serving! Pray for their safety, and for a safe journey home soon! Let us pray for the victims of the recent flooding, and for the victims of the Gulf oil spill. We pray that it won't be as bad as we currently fear it will, and we pray that the economic and ecological impacts won't be so severe. We pray for a speedy cleanup process of the Gulf of Mexico and its habitat. We pray for protection from all enemies foreign and domestic. We pray for those who don't know You or have a personal relationship with your Son. God, we pray for your protection during the upcoming hurricane season...may you guide all storms safely away from anyone. Pray for what you hold near and dear to your heart! Remember, we pray to a God that hears all and knows all. He knows what's best for us, so never give up faith if He doesn't right away. All prayers are answered in due time...in His time! God, we need you now more than ever before!

I will close with the words Jesus Christ, Our Savior taught us.

Our Father Who Art in Heaven
Hallowed by Thy Name
On Earth As It Is In Heaven
Give Us This Day Our Daily Bread
And Forgive Us Our Trespasses
As We Forgive Those Who Trespassed Against Us
Lead Us Not Into Temptation
And Deliver Us From Evil

For Thine is the Kingdom, The Power, & The Glory Are Yours

In the Name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit

-Amen-

National Day of Prayer 2010


Before I get to the forecast discussion, just a quick note...We continue to monitor the progress of the Gulf oil spill. We continue to hope and pray for the best, and we wait with much anxiety to see how fast the oil spill can be contained. The prevailing winds and Gulf currents will dictate which direction the majority of the oil ends up moving. The spill is in an area where two Gulf currents come together, thus resulting in a split flow of the water in the Gulf. The prevailing flow West of the Mississippi is from West to East (paralleling the LA coastline, and pushing oil  towards SW Louisiana). While East of the Mississippi River the flow steers everything to the ESE towards Florida. The directional winds also factor into the equation. For example, the wind direction for tonight into Friday will be from the S or SE, this would bring the oil slick towards the Louisiana coast, with oil nearing Grand Isle tonight. A portion of the oil slick is now West of the Mouth of the Mississippi. The oil travels about 1-2 mph. The winds will shift behind a cold front early Saturday, and this will help us in the short term as the North wind would push the oil further offshore, but by early next week an Easterly to SE flow is expected to develop once again, and this will likely drive the oil back towards our coastline, and since the size of the spill is expected to grow, oil will push in all directions, aided by the prevailing wind. It could reach SW Louisiana in the coming days, and some of it could reach all the way to the Florida Keys in a couple weeks. Stay tuned and keep praying! The International Space Station captured an image of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill from space on Wednesday. Here is that image.


















SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...There's not much to say really! No large scale weather changes are expected through the forecast period, therefore this forecast package is one of persistence. Thursday was another sun-filled early May day with pleasant humidity once again, and above normal temperatures during the afternoon. Morning lows were pleasant once again with readings in the mid to upper 50s. Similarities will exist tonight, but some modification of temperatures will occur tonight in response to a temporary onshore flow. High pressure has moved Eastward, and a zonal flow (W to E) is prevalent across this part of the world. Skies will remain clear overnight. Expect Friday morning lows to range from the mid to upper 60s, this is trending slightly above normal. The only blemish tonight is some high clouds streaming in via the zonal flow from Texas out ahead of a Great Plains disturbance.

An increase in humidity will be the most noticeable change on Friday as a strengthening low-level flow brings in higher humidity values. A cumulus deck will be denoted during the afternoon as the more moist atmosphere and daytime heating work in tandem to produce the clouds. Skies will be no worse than Partly Cloudy, and likely be Mostly Sunny for the most part. A nice breeze will be present in the afternoon once again in response to an advancing trough and associated cold front. Humidity values won't be terribly oppressive, but will certainly be higher than they've been all week. Afternoon highs will be similar with average readings in the upper 80s across the forecast area. Some increase in clouds will be noted for the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame. This will be in response to a weakening cold front coming out of the Great Plains, and going against the zonal flow across the area. This front will only help to increase the clouds. No rainfall is expected as dynamics will be absent, and low level convergence will be next to nothing as well. These factors will negate any hope for rain. The front should move into the area early on Saturday, and progress into the coastal waters before it stalls out over the Gulf Saturday. Drier air filters in behind the front Saturday. As the drier air takes over, skies will clear and plenty of sunshine is anticipated Saturday. All weekend outdoor events will be given a "thumbs up". Saturday highs may be a bit cooler only because of limited sunshine during the morning, but it should certainly reach the mid to upper 80s once again. A light offshore flow develops Saturday morning.

The second half of the weekend for Mother's Day looks great as well. Plenty of sunshine is expected, and some slightly cooler air will be in place for Sunday morning. Morning lows should be around 60. Lots of sunshine is expected as high pressure will be in place. At the same time, the stalled front over the Gulf will begin to slowly retreat Northward, and the high humidity will creep back towards the area. Mostly Sunny skies are expected Sunday, and it will turn out to be a pleasantly warm May afternoon if mama wants to go outside. Maximum temperatures should reach the middle 80s, just about average for the second week of May. It should be great weather all weekend to wrap up Contraband Days. See you there!!!

The forecast period for Monday-Thursday is certainly a persistence based forecast. The stalled boundary over the Gulf will pull Northward, and as it does so here comes the deep low-level moisture. Humidity will be back with a vengeance by Monday, and remain with us through Thursday, and likely for the next 4 months. Surface high pressure orients itself to our East, and mid and upper level ridging remains in place during this time, thus suppressing rain chances through the forecast period. Skies will be Partly Cloudy each day with certainly enough heating and plenty of low-level moisture in place to generate a cumulus field. A largely zonal flow will be the dominate pattern across the Gulf Coast, and this will block all major storm systems from affecting our area. Thus, rain chances are next to nothing through the forecast period. Temperatures will trend towards above normal for morning lows which stand right at 70, while high temperatures will have no problem reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. It will feel like it's well into the 90s as the heat index comes into play. Atmospheric suppression will continue through the forecast period, and beyond with no sign of any significant rain chance for another 10-14 days. We need rain in a big way right now, drought conditions are developing and growing more severe each day. The big story to watch in the coming days will be the winds, as this will have an impact on the oil slick in the Gulf.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  65/88  70/86  61/85  0 0 10 10 0 0
LFT   64/88  69/86  60/86  0 0 10 10 0 0
BPT   67/90  72/87  62/87  0 0 10 10 0 0
AEX  62/90  62/84  56/84  0 0 10 10 0 0
POE  62/91  62/85  57/84  0 0 10 10 0 0
ARA  67/89  72/86  62/86  0 0 10 10 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 65. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight.

Saturday...Mostly Cloudy early, becoming Mostly Sunny. High 86. North wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear. Low 61. NE wind 5 mph.

Sunday...Sunny. High 85. East wind 10 mph.  


Friday 5/7/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5

9a.m.


Weather: Sunny
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 14

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

9p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11

Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
5-7-10











Low: 65
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95


Saturday
5-8-10











Low: 70
High: 86
Rain: 10%
Wind: N 10-15
H.I.: 85-90


Sunday
5-9-10
Mother's Day










Low: 61
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: 83-88


Monday
5-10-10











Low: 65
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 10-15
H.I.: 85-90


Tuesday
5-11-10











Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97


Wednesday
5-12-10











Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98


Thursday
5-13-10











Low: 72
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday Night...South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 feet.

Saturday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet.

Saturday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Sunday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:        4:37a.m.     6:59p.m.
High:      11:07a.m.    11:03p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Low:                   57
Normal Low:      63
Record Low:      51-1987
High:                  88
Normal High:     82
Record High:     90-1984

Rainfall

Today:                           0.00"
Month to Date:              0.11"
Normal Month to Date: 1.01"
Year to Date:                9.49"
Normal Year to Date:  16.99"
Record:                         3.78"-1935


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None

Sunrise Friday:          6:25a.m.
Sunset Friday:           7:54p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Tonight May 6

New Moon- Friday May 14

First Quarter- Thursday May 20

Full Moon- Thursday May 27


Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-

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