One note before I begin...Hurricane Season is less than 3 weeks away now with its commencement coming on Tuesday, June 1. Thus, to prepare for the all important season ahead...I will begin hurricane preparation tips, terms, & tidbits on Monday. I will discuss what you should do before, during, & after the storm, and the list of storm names for the 2010 season. I will also define the common terms associated with tropical systems, and also discuss how the storms form, some myths, and some historical information. It will be a 2 week series beginning on Monday, May 17. I will have bits of information each day so as to not logjam you with information. That'll hopefully make it easier for you to understand and for you to be better prepared for the season above. If you have lived here for awhile, then you should have a very good understanding of what to do after what we've been through in the last few years, but it never hurts to have a refresher course. If you are new to the area, you may have no idea what to do, so that information will be very vital to you as well. Please look for that beginning Monday. Also, just below this section is a look at the moderate drought currently ongoing across the area.
The dry spell continues to worsen across the forecast area. The entire forecast area is under Moderate Drought Conditions. Some data compiled by the NWS Lake Charles helps to illustrate just how much we need rain across the area.
The following is a table for each reporting site that shows the total rainfall so far in May 2010, the normal expected rainfall for Spring, and how much rain has actually fallen this year. Also, included is the departure from normal for each category through today May 13.
Lake Charles
May 0.10"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present) 1.81"
2010 to Date 9.49"
Departure from Normal
May -1.46"
Seasonal -6.93"
Year -8.05"
Lafayette
May 0.13"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present) 2.81"
2010 to Date 10.63"
Departure from Normal
May -1.34"
Seasonal -7.89"
Year -10.54"
Beaumont
May 0.01"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present) 3.25"
2010 to Date 11.54"
Departure from Normal
May -1.46"
Seasonal -5.81"
Year -6.56"
Alexandria
May 0.05"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present) 3.09"
2010 to Date 12.27"
Departure from Normal
May -1.48"
Seasonal -9.16"
Year -10.92"
New Iberia
May Trace
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present) 1.91"
2010 to Date 8.65"
Departure from Normal
May -1.42"
Seasonal -8.36"
Year -10.80"
Based on this information you can clearly see that the drought conditions are worsening across the area. There is a high fire danger and burn bans are in effect across much of SE Texas and Jeff Davis Parish in SW Louisiana. Many residents including those in the city of Lake Charles have been asked to conserve as much water as possible. Try not to water your lawn during the peak heating hours of the day. It is better to water early in the morning or during the late afternoon hours. Hopefully, we will get some much needed rainfall very soon to alleviate and/or end the drought conditions across the area before more serious problems arise. See the forecast discussion below!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The dry spell continues! However, there are some signs of at least a temporary shift or breakdown of the current pattern to allow for a glimmer of hope for decent rain chances this weekend. More on that in a moment. First, today was nearly a repeat performance of every day this week so far. Some slight differences existed today in the form of more cloud cover due to some mid and upper level high cloudiness that kept skies Mostly Cloudy and filtered the May sun at times. High temperatures were held down a few degrees because of the extended cloud cover with mid to upper 80s commonplace across the forecast area. It remained rather windy across the area with a stiff onshore flow in response to an advancing storm system off to our North. Tonight will be quiet with the re-appearance of a low cloud deck towards morning. Expect muggy conditions with overnight lows in the mid 70s across the region.
The mid and upper level ridging is slowly beginning to break down, and the surface ridge to our East serving as a blocking mechanism is also beginning to shift further East and weaken. This will lead to some temporary changes over the next few days. The first signs of such change will begin on Friday. A slow moving late season cool front (I use that term loosely) and associated short waves in advance of it will be lumbering to the SE towards the forecast area. As a result, this will begin to weaken the cap in the mid and upper levels, and as daytime heating reaches its maximum potential, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon. It will certainly not be enough to write home about, and I will only mention a very slight 20% chance. This will certainly be a situation where most of us stay dry., and the lucky few that do see rain won't see it for very long, and it won't alleviate any drought conditions. There should more sunshine on Friday with generally Partly Cloudy skies expected. This should allow for temperatures to reach near the convective potential range around 90. Another, and perhaps more noticeable difference for Friday will be the winds. The pressure gradient will decrease over the area with the weakening high lifting out and the weakening low approaching. It will feel very much like a SW Louisiana summer day. Winds will be on the order of 10-15 mph instead of the 20-25 mph range that was experienced on Thursday. Any shower and/or thunderstorm activity quickly dissipates by sunset as the loss of daytime heating takes effect.
Rain chances continue to increase for the weekend. Before you gripe and moan about that, let me assure you that it will not be a washout by any means. The rain chances will ramp up as the feeble frontal boundary approaches and emanating short waves rotate out ahead of it. Now, for Saturday the mid and upper level ridging will still be trying to hang on such that a dramatic increase in rain chances is not expected. About an average chance (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms is expected for the first half of the weekend. Again, the most likely time frame will be during the afternoon as all the storms should be convectively enhanced and diurnally driven. Saturday temperatures will continue to be above normal with lows in the lower 70s, mainly for the possibility of rain cooled air. Highs will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday piques interest. The best chance of rain for this forecast period, and in the last couple of weeks will be in the offing for the second half of the weekend. This is when the flailing front limps its way towards the forecast area. There will certainly be ample low-level moisture in place, and the boundary itself and associated short waves will generate the necessary instability to produce thunderstorms. It is possible that this set up will favor an MCS moving through the area Sunday afternoon. Either way, rain chances should be in the likely category by Sunday afternoon in response to the weakening front. Rainfall amounts could exceed 1" in some locations, while unfortunately someone down the road comes out with virtually nothing. Hopefully, the MCS feature will develop because that would mean a greater likelihood that everyone will at least get some rain. No severe weather is expected at this time as all of the necessary dynamics needed to support such an occurrence will bypass this part of the world. There is still some disagreement with models on whether or not this front will make it through. I don't believe this is likely, but it will certainly be close enough to raise rain chances. A transition to a quasi-stationary boundary and eventual frontylsis will likely occur across the area. Sunday's temperatures will be reflected by the enhanced cloud cover and likely rain chances with lows near 70 and highs in the mid 80s at best.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast
LCH 74/90 72/88 71/85 0 20 0 30 20 60
LFT 73/91 71/88 71/86 0 20 0 30 20 60
BPT 75/90 71/87 71/85 0 20 0 40 20 60
AEX 70/92 68/87 67/85 0 20 0 40 30 60
POE 71/92 68/87 67/85 0 20 0 40 30 60
ARA 75/89 72/86 71/86 0 20 0 30 20 60
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy. Low 74. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms in the evening. Low 71. SE wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Mostly Cloudy with scattered to numerous showers & thunderstorms likely. High 85. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday 5/14/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 12
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 14
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy w/ Isolated Thunderstorms
Temp: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy w/ Isolated Showers
Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
5-14-10
Low: 74
High: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97
Saturday
5-15-10
Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 91-96
Sunday
5-16-10
Low: 71
High: 85
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
Monday
5-17-10
Low: 69
High: 87
Rain: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
Tuesday
5-18-10
Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
Wednesday
5-19-10
Low: 66
High: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 92-97
Thursday
5-20-10
Low: 66
High: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 9:39p.m.
High: 4:39a.m.
...Toledo Bend...
170.15'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Low: 77
Normal Low: 65
Record Low: 48-1895
High: 87
Normal High: 84
Record High: 92-1920
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.10"
Normal Month to Date: 2.33"
Year to Date: 9.49"
Normal Year to Date: 18.31"
Record: 3.23"-1966
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 72
High: 86
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 66
High: 85
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 67
High: 84
Rain: 0.61"
Sunrise Friday: 6:20a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:59p.m.
...Lunar Table...
New Moon- Friday May 14
First Quarter- Thursday May 20
Full Moon- Thursday May 27
Last Quarter- Friday June 4
Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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