Before I get to the discussion, there's a few other items I want to discuss.
First, you have seen all the news reports about the unbelievable flooding that is occurring across Tennessee and Kentucky. This is part of the strong storm system that moved through the area over the weekend. These areas were hammered with over 20" of rain in some places in a 2 day period. The worst flooding in the history of Nashville, TN has resulted, with much of the city flooded including some of the most notable landmarks in town such as LP Field and the Grand Ole Opry. Several fatalities have resulted in Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky from the weekend storms. The flooding was the big story, but there were also numerous tornadoes as well especially across Arkansas. I will have more information on this in the coming days, and focus on exactly what caused the catastrophic flooding across the Tennessee Valley. Our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this violent storm.
Next, hurricane season is less than a month away, can you believe it? That being said, it is time to get prepared for the season ahead! Do you know what you should do? Do you have a hurricane plan in place? If you've been here awhile, then you should know what to do because we've been through so much in the last 4 years. It is essential to be prepared just in case a storm comes our way in 2010. There is absolutely no way of knowing if that will happen at this point, and all the preseason forecasts are just that! I am not one for making a forecast for the coming season, for it is not numbers that are relevant, it is location! What does it matter if there are 20 storms, but none are influential with a landfall in the United States? If there's only one, and landfall occurs then it becomes a bad season for whoever experiences that storm. Many people are asking me what are my thoughts about the 2010 season. Without giving a specific forecast for how many storms, I will post my thoughts in the coming days on what to expect. Also, some changes have been implemented by the National Hurricane Center in the issuance of watches and warnings. I will post these and discuss these as well. Also, included will be the list of names for the 2010 season. Look for this and more as we prepare for the 2010 hurricane season this month.
Next, as you know it has been very dry across these parts lately. It has been a very dry spring thus far, and April of 2010 was one of the top 5 driest at almost all reporting sites in the Lake Charles NWS forecast area. Here is some rainfall data compiled by the National Weather Service in Lake Charles. All of the following data comes from the NWS Lake Charles unless otherwise noted.
April 2010 was the driest on record at Lake Charles. In 2010 only 0.11" of rain fell during the month. The top 5 driest Aprils are listed.
1. 0.11" in 2010
2. 0.38" in 1931
3. 0.40" in 1999
4. 0.47" in 1987
5. 0.52" in 1978
Lake Charles was the only location in which April 2010 ranked as the driest ever, however, nearly every recording site in the forecast area recorded a top 5 driest April. In Lafayette, it was the 3rd driest April on record.
1. 0.45" in 1987
2. 0.48" in 1971
3. 0.55" in 2010
4. 0.59" in 1976
5. 0.67" in 1965
Beaumont's April record in 2010 ranked as the 4th driest of record.
1. 0.26" in 1987
2. 0.35" in 1965
3. 0.36" in 1978
4. 0.37" in 2010
5. 0.39" in 1947
Alexandria also came in with its 4th driest April of record. Here's the top 5 driest for Cenla.
1. 0.27" in 1987
2. 0.38" in 1930
3. 0.43" in 1965
4. 0.50" in 2010
5. 0.52" in 2003
At New Iberia, it was abnormally dry with 1.25" of rain recorded, however, this doesn't rank among the top 5 driest at Acadiana Regional Airport. It should be noted that the average rainfall for the month of April across SW Louisiana, Central Louisiana and SE Texas ranges from 3.64" at Lake Charles to 4.72" at Lafayette and 4.56" at New Iberia. Alexandria averages 4.94" for April, and over in SE Texas, Beaumont comes in with an average of 3.86" for the month of April. I would like to take the dry Spring into further account. The average rainfall for the months of March & April combined across the area should be a little over 7" at Lake Charles. This year only 1.71" of rain has fallen during meteorological Spring. This is a deficit of nearly 5.50" for this time frame. Spring is typically our dry season, but even this is dry by South Louisiana standards. It has been a dry year overall now despite the extremely wet winter we had. So far, through May 4, a total of 9.49" of rain has fallen at Lake Charles. This gives a yearly deficit of 6.59". Typically, by this point in the year we should have picked up just shy of 16" with an average of 15.98" through May 4 at Lake Charles. Hopefully, we will get some rain soon.
Lastly, our thoughts and prayers continue to be with all those who were lost in the oil rig disaster in the Gulf, and their families and friends as well. We continue to pray that the disaster will not be as bad as it is currently feared. Wind direction will play a major role in controlling where the oil slick winds up, as the winds and different currents drive the flow of the water in the Gulf. Traces of the oil have hit the SE Louisiana coastline, and the size of the oil leak is expected to continue to grow, and oil slick will continue progressing towards the Gulf Coast states from Louisiana to Florida. The economic and ecological disaster that this poses will be severe. Pay very close attention to the wind forecast over the next several weeks. This will entail where the oil will wind up.
Now onto the forecast discussion...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The stretch of unseasonably warm and dry weather continues, and it will for the foreseeable future. Tuesday was a beautiful day across the area with a re-enforced high in place across the area. This was in the wake of a secondary cool front which moved through overnight Monday. This didn't do much for our weather, as the clear skies and low humidity from Monday carried over to Tuesday. Temperatures were pleasant in the morning with upper 50s across the area. Afternoon readings were on the warm side, and in some cases hot. It was a bit cooler than Monday, however. The high on Monday at Lake Charles was a unseasonably hot 95, and this one degree off a record for the date. It was a cool (relatively speaking) 90 on Tuesday. Humidity values were in the comfortable range, and this helped to keep the heat index out of the equation. The controlling high pressure will hang around for the next 24 hours, and pleasant weather will continue to be the name of the game. Upper 50s are expected for minimums once again tonight, and this is just a tad below normal for early May. However, on Wednesday another fast warm up will ensue as you would imagine with the dry air and higher sun angle doing its magic. Highs will tease 90 once again, give or take a degree. Expect another day of sunny skies and lower humidity as the high pressure remains locked in place.
The controlling high will slowly shift Eastward through the next 24 hours. The refreshing nights spill over into Wednesday night into Thursday, but temperature modification takes shape as a return flow commences with the orientation of the high to our East. The humidity values will start an upward tick as well at this time, but it should still be fairly tolerable for Thursday. Morning lows will nudge back into the 60s, while afternoon highs cool a bit, but solely as a result of increased humidity and the onshore flow. Expect maximums to hold in the upper 80s, still above normal for the first week of May. More changes occur as we head into Friday. An advancing late Spring storm will be making inroads across this great country. It will be coming out of the Rockies and Great Plains into the Mid West. The storm track is far removed from our area this week, and this trend is forecast to hold firm for week's end as well. Therefore, while some changes are forecast, no large scale synoptic changes or weather features are in the offing. Certainly, there will be ample low level moisture and humidity in place by Friday, such that the skies transition from Sunny to Partly Cloudy during the day. It will also be a bit breezy in response to the advancing storm system. Temperatures tend towards above normal for both lows and highs by this time with lows in the mid to upper 60s, and highs remaining in the upper 80s to around 90. A heat index will come into play by this time, as the high humidity make for uncomfortable feelings in the afternoon. It will feel like a South Louisiana summer day. The forecast remains rain free for this period.
If there is to be any rain at all in this forecast period it would come Friday night into Saturday, but this doesn't seem likely at this juncture. This is especially true given the way things evolved the past two weekends when it did look like it was going to rain, and we ended up with very little rainfall in the bucket both times. This time, with the storm track further North, it really will be an iffy proposition. However, that being said, a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm is possible in the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame as the storm system moves Eastward to our North, and its associated trailing cold front (albeit weak) moves through the forecast area. The amount of low-level moisture in place could be enough to conjure up a few returns on the radar, but if you get rain you will be the lucky one. I will not certainly insert any chance of rain for this time period, but I will monitor future model runs for any necessary revisions. We need the rain, but maybe this isn't the right weekend for that. That's good news because it's the second weekend of Contraband Days and Mother's Day. Some drier air filters into the region for the weekend behind the weak front. It is a weak front, and I am reluctant to say cooler air, because fronts do very little for us this time of year in this established pattern. Morning cloudiness associated with the weak boundary on Saturday morning will give way to a great deal of sunshine by afternoon, and more sun than clouds are expected on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above the seasonal values with lows back to near 70 for Saturday, and in the mid 60s Sunday. Highs should be in the upper 80s to around 90, doesn't sound much difference does it? At least, it might turn out to be comfortably warm at Contraband Days this weekend, and skies should be beautiful Saturday night for the fireworks.
Into next week, it can be summed up just by saying expect an early summer status quo. Rainfall will continue to be hard to come by as mid and upper level ridging strengthens across the area. Humidity values will increase once again as a pronounced onshore flow develops once again with a surface high oriented to our East. The persistent onshore flow will allow for an afternoon cumulus field to develop, but the high pressure aloft will suppress sea breeze activity during the afternoon hours. It is the afternoon sea breeze that we rely on during the summer months for the majority of our rainfall. Temperatures will remain above seasonal with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs in the upper 80s. The prolonged dry spell will continue through the forecast period, and there is no sign of any significant pattern change through the next 7-10 days. Eventually, we will see some day to day variations that will allow for sea breeze activity to develop, and produce some rainfall across the area. This will become more common in the second half of this month, as we complete the transition to our standard summer scenario. We desperately need some rain, for I fear we are developing a drought situation as we head into our long summer season around these parts.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 59/90 61/88 66/89 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 60/91 60/89 66/89 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 61/92 64/88 67/89 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 55/92 58/90 63/91 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 55/92 58/90 63/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 61/89 62/87 66/88 0 0 0 0 0 0
Overnight...Clear. Low 59. Light Wind.
Wednesday...Sunny & Hot. High 90. South wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 61. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Sunny. High 88. South wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 66. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 89. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 5/5/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 7
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 6
Drew's 7 Day Forecast
Wednesday
5-5-10
Low: 59
High: 90
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
Thursday
5-6-10
National Day of Prayer
Low: 61
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
Friday
5-7-10
Low: 66
High: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
Saturday
5-8-10
Low: 70
High: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
Sunday
5-9-10
Mother's Day
Low: 65
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10
H.I.: 90-95
Monday
5-10-10
Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
Tuesday
5-11-10
Low: 71
High: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97
...Marine Forecast....
Tonight...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Through Thursday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 2:18a.m.
High: 10:34a.m.
...Lake Charles Climate Summary....
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Low: 61
Normal Low: 62
Record Low: 46-1954
High: 90
Normal High: 82
Record High: 93-1910
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month: 0.10"
Normal Month to Date: 0.66"
Year: 9.49"
Normal Year to Date: 16.64"
Record: 1.60"-1944
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:26a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:53p.m.
...Lunar Table....
Last Quarter- Thursday May 6
New Moon- Friday May 14
First Quarter- Thursday May 20
Full Moon- Thursday May 27
Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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