Drier and Cooler as We Start September This Week...

Sunday, August 30, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It is still August, and this weekend certainly felt like it with high humidity, and the usual scattered shower and thunderstorm activity that is so prevalent during the afternoon this time of year. Although, the shower and thunderstorm activity was enhanced somewhat by another unusual August cool front. This cool
front has moved into the region tonight, and will clear the entire area and push into the coastal waters overnight. The front was able to reach our area thanks to an unusually deep Eastern trough for this time of year. It has persisted nearly all summer across the Mid-Atlantic and New England states giving them one of the wettest and coolest summers on record. It has shifted to the SE in the last couple of weeks, therefore aiding in the advancement of the associated frontal boundaries into our region. This will be the second week in a row to experience drier and somewhat cooler air. This time around, it may be a bit more noticeable with the temperatures as well. Drier air is already pushing into the area tonight after a brief thunderstorm this evening mainly South of I-10 here in the Lake Charles area. A quiet night is in store with dropping dew points and clearing skies. The cold front has been slowly pushing through the state all weekend, and is currently creeping into the coastal parishes. All the shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished for the night over land, and aside from an isolated shower or two tomorrow near the coast where the deeper moisture will linger, rain chances are non-existent until the end of the forecast period. All the shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the offshore waters ahead of the frontal boundary this week. Expect the cooling trend to start tonight with overnight lows running from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area with the exception of the coast where it should hold up in the mid 70s.

On Monday, drier air will continue spilling into the region as a large dominating Canadian high pressure over the Nation's mid-section will be the driving force behind our weather for much of the week. Daily maximums should be about average for the end of the August with readings right near 90. Winds will be out of the North around the controlling high, henceforth, putting the kibosh on rain chances with no effects of the sea breeze. I mentioned that highs should be near normal right around 90, but here's an aside....that is a far cry from what the daily maximum was on August 31, 2000. On that day, Lake Charles recorded its all-time record high when the mercury soared to a scorching 107 degrees. It was during the hottest stretch of weather ever recorded in SW Louisiana. I will talk more about that tomorrow.

Tomorrow night begins a stretch of really refreshing nights as temperatures fall into the 60s area wide. The coolest locations north of I-10 will see readings between 62-65 while we bottom out near 67 here along the I-10 corridor, and about 70-72 at the coast.

Great weather is expected for the mid-week period as the high continues to dominate the weather. Mostly Sunny skies are expected with humidity readings by Tuesday afternoon in the 30% range. Afternoon highs will still be near 90, but the heat index will be out of play. The coolest mornings will come on Wednesday and Thursday with low to mid 60s expected even here along I-10. The coolest locations north of US 190 could get down as low as 58 or 59. With the comfortable mornings, it will certainly feel nice, and is a reminder to us that fall isn't too far away. The nice, dry and cooler air will last through Thursday before the humidifying trend begins.

The controlling high will slip Eastward into the SE U.S. by the end of the week, and this will turn winds around to back off the Gulf by Thursday afternoon. At this time, the humidity will begin to creep back into the forecast, but it will remain dry enough in the lower levels through Friday to preclude any shower and thunderstorm development. A return to near seasonable temperatures will occur over the weekend. That's right...it's Labor Day coming up next Monday!!! Enough low-level moisture should be in place by Saturday afternoon for at least an isolated storm or two, but still generally going with a dry forecast until deeper moisture takes over the entire forecast area by Sunday. This will be sufficient to bring us back to the usual late summer pattern with about a 20-30% chance of an afternoon shower or storm as the sea breeze initiates during peak heating hours. No large scale weather systems are expected during this forecast period. Temperatures will remain seasonable to close out the forecast period as well. This weekend is also the start of football season, and I don't foresee any problems with being able to get all of the games in as scheduled.


Tropics:
Danny stayed a very weak system, and was absorbed by the deep Easterly trough currently in place along the East coast. There are currently no active systems in the tropics, but there is one suspect area that we're watching for the potential of development over the next couple of days. There is a broad area of low pressure currently centered about 700 miles East of the Lesser Antilles. It is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions are favorable for this system to develop over the next couple of days, and it could become a tropical depression as it continues to move off to the WNW around 15 mph through Tuesday. All interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. Model output and a satellite image of the system are included below:

Elsewhere in the tropics, all is quiet. No tropical storm formation is expected through Tuesday.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH 69/90 67/91 64/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 71/90 66/91 65/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 68/91 68/91 66/90 10 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 66/90 63/90 60/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 67/90 64/90 61/90 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 72/90 68/91 66/90 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tonight...Partly Cloudy and Cooler. Low 69. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 90. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Monday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 65. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 91. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 64. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 90. NE wind 5-10 mph.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Monday
8-31-09

  


                                                                                                                  69/90/0
Wind: NE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
9-1-09






65/91/0
Wind: NE 10-15
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High


Wednesday
9-2-09






64/90/0
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High


Thursday
9-3-09






65/89/0
Wind: ESE 5-10
H.I.: 87-92
U.V: 11- Very High


Friday
9-4-09






68/89/10
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
9-5-09






70/90/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
9-6-09






71/89/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Marine Forecast from NWS- Lake Charles...

Tonight...North winds 5-10 knots becoming northeast after midnight.
Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday Night...ENE winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.

Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 5-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.

Monday Tides:
High: 4:12a.m.
Low: 8:24p.m.


Climate Data for Lake Charles- Courtesy of NWS Lake Charles

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Low: 72 Normal Low: 73 Record Low: 61-1992
High: 92 Normal High: 90 Record High: 105-2000

Precipitation:
Rainfall Today: 0.14"
Month to Date: 8.01" Normal Month to Date: 4.66"
Year to Date: 41. 72" Normal Year to Date: 37.90"

Sunrise Monday: 6:49a.m.
Sunset Monday: 7:36p.m.


Have a great week! Good night and God bless!!!


-DM-

Continuing to Remember Katrina

Sunday, August 30, 2009

As we all know, Hurricane Katrina, was one of the worst natural disasters in our nation's history, and it was also one of the worst natural disasters in state history, and was the worst man-made disaster in history. This is a chronological history of Hurricane Katrina.

Hurricane Katrina formed on August 23, 2005 from a tropical wave that had actually originated off the coast of Africa on the 13th and was originally classified as T.D.10, but degeneration occurred as the system moves towards the Lesser Antilles. A new circulation developed as the system approached the Bahamas, and Tropical Depression 12 was born near the Bahamas on the 23rd. T.D. 12 was forecasted to steadily move Westward and strengthen into Tropical Storm Katrina as it approached South Florida and the Florida Keys.

Katrina was a very favorable environment for development once it got going over the Bahamas. A period of rapid intensification began during the early morning hours of August 24th, and was officially upgraded to Tropical Storm Katrina at 10 a.m. when it centered over the Central Bahamas. The initial motion of Katrina was off to the NW, but a building ridge of high pressure would force Katrina to make a left hand turn into a more W to eventually WSW direction still aiming it at South Florida. Steady-state intensification continued through the day on the 24th and 25th. Katrina became a category 1 hurricane shortly before its first landfall in South Florida. First U.S. landfall of Katrina was near the Miami-Dade and Broward Country, Florida line. Katrina began to develop an eye just as it moved onshore and remain well-defined as it moved through the Everglades. The eye of Katrina actually passed right over the National Hurricane Center. Katrina's center only spent about 6 hours over land in South Florida. As typical with a tropical system over land, Katrina weakened, but not as much as one might suspect after being over land. It only weakened to a 70 mph tropical storm. The center of Tropical Storm Katrina emerged over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters on the evening of the 25th. From this point on, Katrina would grow into an unprecedented storm.

The environment over the Gulf of Mexico was one that was primed for a strengthening system. Katrina didn't waste any time at all becoming a hurricane once again, and achieved category 1 status once again on the night of the 25th just as it was situated WNW of the Dry Tortugas. Katrina underwent 2 periods of rapid intensification while it was over the Gulf. Katrina intensified from a 75 mph-category 1 storm to a 110 mph-category 2 within a 24 hour period from the 25th to the 26th. I should note here, that at this time the official forecast track for Katrina was for landfall over the weekend in the Florida Panhandle near Pensacola or possibly as far West as Mobile, AL, however the strengthening Atlantic ridge continued to force Katrina to the WSW and models would soon latch on to this idea. The concern was growing for a direct hit from a major hurricane near the city of New Orleans. The intensification processes continued, and Katrina strengthened into a major hurricane at category 3 strength about 435 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Katrina leveled off for a time at this point as it went through an eyewall replacement cycle. During this same time, the wind field and diameter of Katrina increased in size to nearly double what it had been. Katrina finally began to make a turn to the WNW as the ridge shifted slightly to the East over Florida. As Katrina began to make this turn, another period of rapid intensification would ensue. Amazingly, Katrina strengthened from an already dangerous category 3 with 115 mph to a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds in about 12 hours. On the night of August 27th, hurricane warnings were issued for a large portion of the Central and Northern Gulf coast from Morgan City, LA to the Florida/Alabama border. On Sunday morning, August 28, Katrina peaked in intensity reaching sustained winds of 175 mph. This occurred as Katrina was only about 170 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. This was setting up to be the absolute worst case scenario for SE Louisiana and Southern Mississippi, including New Orleans.

It was then mentioned that Katrina could possibly make landfall on Monday the 29th as a category 5 hurricane, if it did this it would be only the 4th hurricane to make landfall as a category 5 in the U.S., and the first since Andrew in 1992. Fortunately, Katrina underwent a period of rapid weakening as it moved closer to the coast, and began a turn to the North around the periphery of the Eastern Gulf ridge. It would still come ashore as a major hurricane, and bring with it lots of devastation. The weakening period began as another eyewall replacement cycle occurred. The large eye that Katrina had at peak intensity contracted, and eroded on the Southern side, thus weakening it from the category 5 that it once was earlier in the day on Sunday the 28th. The weakening trend continued through landfall, and Katrina made landfall as a category 3 storm with 125 mph winds near Buras, LA around 6:10 a.m. on Monday, August 29. The eye of Katrina moved Northward over SE Louisiana, passing just East of New Orleans, and very near Slidell. Final landfall occurred near the LA/MS border with 120 mph winds. While, Katrina may have only made landfall as a category 3 officially, a category 5 storm surge occurred. This resulted in the highest storm surge ever recorded in the United States with an amazing 32' storm surge along the Mississippi Coast at Long Beach. The storm surge was highest along the entire Mississippi Coast with surge readings higher than 20' for the entire length of the coastline as this was the area just to the East of the eye. Lower SE Louisiana saw a surge of 12-15' causing major damage. Severe structural damage occurred across the entire area of SE Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama from the storm surge and the wind. The worst wind damage was over Mississippi and across the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain, and through the New Orleans Metropolitan Area. Katrina caused widespread damage with tree and power line damage through a large portion of Mississippi. The eye of Katrina moved near Jackson, MS as a category 1 on Monday evening, and weakened to a tropical storm as it began a NE movement to the NW of Meridian.

There are many meteorological explanations as to why Katrina weakened so rapidly after reaching its peak intensity. It should be noted, that it is very rare for storms to maintain a category 5 intensity for a very long duration. The National Hurricane Center cites that the weakening could have been aided by entrainment of dry air that was seen eroding the deep convection over the western semicircle while Katrina approached the coast. Gradually increasing wind shear, slightly lower ocean temperatures, and (following the first Gulf landfall) interaction with land each could also have played a role. Without extensive investigation, however, it is not possible to assess the relative roles played by these various factors. The weakening of major hurricanes as they approach the northern Gulf coast has occurred on several occasions in the past when one or more of these factors have been in place. Indeed, an unpublished study by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reveals that, during the past 20 years, all 11 hurricanes having a central pressure less than 973 mb 12 hours before landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico weakened during these last 12 h. Much research is being conducted on this topic.

Now, I will touch on what happened in New Orleans. The disaster that unfolded in New Orleans really didn't happen until several hours after the worst of the storm had passed the city. During the storm, winds near 100 mph occurred inflicting structural damage, but not to the extent that everyone expected or what it could've been if the eye had passed just West of the city as opposed to just East. However, the storm surge piled up in Lake Pontchartrain and battered the Northshore from Mandeville to Slidell with readings of 12-16'. As the storm moved inland over Mississippi strong Northerly winds across the Northshore and New Orleans caused water levels to rise on the southern end of the lake. This led to breaches and breaks in the New Orleans levee system, and water began spilling into the city which is largely below sea level. The highest surge readings were on the East side from New Orleans East to St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parish. A surge of almost 20' occurred in these areas, and a surge of 12-16' occurred further West. Many of the breaches to the levees appear to have occurred during the morning of the 29th. Nearly80% of the great city of New Orleans was flooded. Water was as deep as 20' in some locations, and this was all within a couple days of the storm. It took over a month (43 days) for all the water to be removed from the city. The removal of water was briefly delayed 3.5 weeks later during Hurricane Rita. The flooding in New Orleans made the city uninhabitable for weeks, and changed the way of life for thousands and left thousands homeless. Over 1,500 people perished in New Orleans as a result of the flooding. The suffering inflicted by Katrina is by far the worst created by any hurricane to strike the United States, likely in history.

In closing, I send out my prayers and thoughts to all of those directly and indirectly affected by this disaster. Many many people will never go back to the New Orleans area, and part of the area may never be the same again. I know it was a rough time physically and mentally for lots of people after seeing what happened in New Orleans and on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. There is much to be learned from Katrina, and much much research is yet to be done on this most devastating storm. Much work has to be done within the city of New Orleans to prevent such a man-made disaster from occurring again. It is inevitable that a hurricane will strike the area again, but no one knows when. Hopefully, it will be many many years before it does. I will post a little more on Katrina throughout the week, including my personal account of the damage first-hand on the Northshore after the storm. I have included the official post-storm reports from both the National Hurricane Center and the NWS Slidell office. God bless all those still recovering from the storm, and we pray for those who lost their lives during the storm.

NWS Slidell Post-Storm Report

You Can Find the NHC Post Storm Report Here

-DM-

More on Katrina...

Friday, August 28, 2009

Hurricane Katrina was bearing down on the SE LA coast on the evening of Sunday, August 28, 2005. It has weakened from the storm that it once was during the day, but was still a very dangerous storm, and was still going to be the storm of a lifetime. Here's the official advisory on Katrina, and its time of peak intensity, along with a satellite image of the monster storm over the Gulf South of New Orleans.

First, here is the 10a.m. Advisory on Hurricane Katrina from the National Hurricane Center on Sunday, August 28, 2005:

HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005  

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA
...EVEN STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...
AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEAN THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.  
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS
FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.  

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  REPORTS
FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED
A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...
26.78 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE 
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.  RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT
POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 175 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.   
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY
AT 4 PM CDT.   

FORECASTER PASCH

Here is the satellite imagery of Katrina near its peak intensity:



















More to come later on regarding Katrina. The forecast is coming up shortly.

God bless all of those who lost their life in the nation's worst natural disaster. Also, bless all of those who continue to struggle with every day life since the storm. God, we pray for protection from all future storms.

-DM-

Remembering Katrina...

Friday, August, 28, 2009

The 4 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina is officially tomorrow. Katrina is still talked about to this day, and it along with OUR storm we'll remember next month, Rita, are the worst natural disasters to ever strike our great nation. There is so much that is still be learned from Katrina, and research will be conducted for many many years. While most of the focus with Katrina from media coverage et. al centered on New Orleans, what happened in other parts of SE Louisiana and Southern Mississippi and Alabama can't be forgotten. The death toll from Katrina was nearly 1,300. Over 1,000 of these deaths occurred in Louisiana.

While I want to discuss and remember Rita more than Katrina, because Rita has more effects locally, and was the most devastating storm in our area's history, the anniversary of Katrina can't pass without us taking a moment to pause and reflect on the tragedy that occurred in late August 2005. We remember those who perished, and had their lives torn apart by this storm. Many of us have friends/family that were affected directly by the storm, as do I. Many areas of the great city of New Orleans, will likely never be the same again, and the same can be said for coastal Mississippi. Join me, over the weekend as I will have special posts to remember Katrina. I will include some meteorological insight involved with the storm itself. I will conclude this post with a very "chilling" manuscript from the National Weather Service Office in Slidell, LA. This was issued on Sunday, August, 28, 2005 shortly after 10a.m. I still get teary-eyed when I read this.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED....HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON-FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCHAS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THEWINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARECERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

What are your memories of Katrina??? Post your comments, thoughts, or questions.

More to come later today as well as the latest on the advancing cold front, and what's going on with Danny and Invest 94L.

-DM-

Oh Poor "Danny Boy"...Rain Chances on the Increase Into the Weekend Ahead of Another August Front...Another Tropical Entity???

Thursday, August 27, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The expected afternoon convection never really materialized today with isolated cells at best. The likely culprit was dry air in place after yesterday's activity in association with the departing Upper Level Low. This cutoff ULL was in our general vicinity last night, and moved ESE tonight and is currently centered over the coastal waters of SE Louisiana near the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The movement of the ULL also kept us on its dry side today, increasing subsidence across the forecast area. The air was still relatively dry at the surface as well this afternoon with humidity readings in the 40-50% range once again. With just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area, it was an average day temperature wise with maximums in the lower 90s.

The drier air will remain in place tonight into Friday. Generally, quiet but humid conditions are in the offing tonight with low temperatures in the 68-73 range. The drier air will be replaced on Friday by moist air moving from W to E across the area out ahead of another late August deep trough. Rain chances will be present during the afternoon hours, but initiation may begin later than usual due to increase subsidence early on. The advancing trough will drive another rare August cool front towards the area. The approaching weather feature will give the ULL the boot overnight. This front is currently en route tonight, and is located from West Texas to the Mid West. The best dynamics to support advancement of the front will slide from W to E across the country to our North, so the tail end of this front will slow to a crawl overnight into Friday. This is typical for a front this far South in the Summer. However, the front will eventually move through our area over the weekend as it gets additional support later on. The front will be close enough by late in the day Friday to increase rain chances to just above normal. All in all, it will be a typical late August day with temperatures into the low 90s again with Partly Cloudy skies for much of the day.

The best rain chances this forecast period come on Saturday as the frontal boundary labors its way into and through the area. Shower and thunderstorm activity will not necessarily be limited to the afternoon hours on Saturday, but this time frame will be the most likely time to see some convective activity. I will advertise higher than average rain chances with more than half the area likely seeing some rainfall during the course of the day. It won't be an all day rain event by any means. Temperatures will be around 90 once again. The second half of the weekend will offer much better weather as drier air trickles in behind the front beginning late Saturday, and becoming more pronounced on Sunday as the front penetrates further into the Gulf. I can't rule out a few showers or thunderstorms Sunday especially near the coast as the front struggles to clear the area, but rain chances will be much lower for the second half of the weekend. Temperatures will be a tad cooler Sunday with Partly Cloudy skies, but just wait...

Drier and even some cooler air filters into the forecast area to close out August on Monday. This will persist for the remainder of the forecast area with high pressure dominating. Rain chances will be absent from the forecast during this time, and the humidity will be quite bearable once again. The coolest air arrives at mid-week as the Canadian high in the wake of the front positions itself closer to our area providing fresh Northerly breezes. Low temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 60s at this time, with some of the coolest locations in Northern portions of the forecast area possibly reaching the upper 50s. This will be the coolest temperatures we've seen since May. Afternoon maximums will be warm, and a large daily diurnal range is expected since it will be early September. High temperatures for days 5 through 7 will be in the 85 to 90 degree range, with the humidity the most noticeable difference. It should be a string of refreshing days, and a nice reminder to us that fall ins't too far away now.

Tropics:
The tropics remain active. Tropical Storm Danny is hanging on for survival tonight, and in all honesty it looks more like a Subtropical system. Danny is very disorganized with its low-level center still exposed to the left of all the convection. The strongest winds are displaced well to the NE of the center of circulation. Hurricane Hunters continue to investigate the system tonight. Danny is feeling the effects of the Gulf coast Upper Level Low, and as a result of this strong SSWly shear is present at this time. The storm should continue to struggle into the day on Friday, before conditions become a bit better to support development. The period of favorable conditions for intensification is forecast to be brief at this point as the trough advances towards the East coast. At this time, Danny is expected to remain a Tropical Storm with a similar forecast track to my discussion from last night with a track near the Outer Banks of North Carolina Saturday. The storm has not moved much today, but a slow N to NW drift has been noted tonight. T.S. Danny should generally move Northward on Friday, and it will increase in forward speed over the next couple of days as it feels the effects of the trough. The storm will parallel the East coast, and could come very close to Long Island or Cape Cod over the weekend as it transitions into an extratropical entity. Based on the current forecast track, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Duck to Cape Lookout. Additional watches and/or warnings are possible for portions of the East coast on Friday especially if the forecast track shifts further West.

Here is the 10p.m. Advisory on Tropical Storm Danny:

Tropical Storm Danny 10p.m.- Thursday, August 27, 2009

28.4N
73.5W

This is about 485 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph w/ higher gusts---some strengthening is possible through Friday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 205 miles mainly to the NE of the center.

Movement: NNW @ 8 mph---A general motion towards the North, and an increase in forward speed is expected Friday.

Pressure: 29.77" or 1,008 mb.

Large swells and dangerous rip currents will affect the East Coast through the weekend.










































Danny is currently the only active named storm out there, but it looks more and more likely tonight like we will have another one by this weekend. It is the vigorous tropical wave that I talked about last time. It emerged off the coast of Africa earlier this week. It is currently located about 450 miles SW of the Cape Verde Islands in the Far Eastern Atlantic. It is moving off to the West at 15-20 mph, and this will likely continue through Saturday. Further development of this system is expected over the next few days, and I expect this system to become Erika in the coming days. Forecast models have been initiated on this system, and I will display those in just a moment. It is far too early to predict where this system is going, but it will be the system to watch next week.



























Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through Saturday.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH 71/89 71/90 70/89 10 40 20 60 30 30
LFT 69/88 70/90 71/90 10 40 20 60 30 30
BPT 73/88 72/89 69/90 10 40 30 50 30 20
AEX 67/90 69/88 66/89 10 50 40 30 20 10
POE 68/89 69/88 67/89 10 50 40 30 20 10
ARA 70/88 72/90 71/90 10 40 30 60 30 30

Tonight....Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy. Low 71. Light SE wind.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. High 89. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90. SE to SW wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. SW wind becoming NW at 10-15 mph.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the morning. High 89. NW wind 10-15 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

8-28-09
Friday






71/89/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High


Saturday
8-29-09
4 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina






71/90/60
Wind: SE/SW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High


Sunday
8-30-09






70/89/30
Wind: NW 10-15
H.I.: 88-94
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
8-31-09





67/88/0
Wind: NW 10-15
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
9-1-09
1 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav





65/86/0
Wind: North 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High


Wednesday
9-2-09





63/88/o
Wind: NW/SW 10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High


Thursday
9-3-09





66/90/0
Wind: SW 10
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High


Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles

Tonight...S-SW winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

Friday...Southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Southwest winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...W-SW winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet in the afternoon.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...SW-W winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Tides:

High: 2:22a.m.
Low: 5:53p.m.


Climate Data- Courtesy of NWS Lake Charles

Thursday, August 28, 2009

Low: 71 Normal Low: 73 Record Low: 64- 1968
High: 92 Normal High: 91 Record High: 101- 1913

Precipitation:

Rain Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 4.95" Normal Month to Date: 4.12"
Year to Date: 38.66" Normal Year to Date: 37.36"

Sunrise Friday: 6:48a.m.
Sunset Friday: 7:40p.m.


Good Night and God bless all!!!

-DM-

Back to the Future...No, I Mean...the Usual...More Tropical Activity!!!

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The drier air and lower humidity of the past few days is eroding. A couple of weather features are aiding in this process. The frontal boundary which came through last weekend has begun to dissipate, but the biggest player involved in the weather today was a Westward moving Upper Level Low which was mentioned in previous forecast discussions. This upper level low was positioned near the Mississippi River this afternoon in NE LA/Central MS. The cold air aloft associated with this system, combined with daytime heating resulted in shower and thunderstorm activity to develop across parts of the forecast area. Storm initiation was over SE Texas around the backside of the low, and the storms pushed SE in response to a NWly flow aloft in advance of a forthcoming trough. The storms moved into the forecast area around lunch time and progressed ESE through the area through mid-afternoon. Some thunderstorms reached severe limits today, and a severe thunderstorm watch was in effect for much of the forecast area for the afternoon hours.

The strongest storms were NW and NE of Lake Charles. Hail-bearing storms occurred in fact, this is rare across the area for August. The hail was caused by the cold air aloft generated by the upper level low. Some hail sizes reported with the storms either last night or today include golf-ball sized and egg-sized. Some smaller reports of hail occurred here in Calcasieu Parish with penny to nickel sized hail around Vinton. The storms weakened considerably as they moved into Lake Charles, and had fallen below severe limits by that time. Temperatures today were close to normal for August, and this trend will continue for the remainder of the work week, but with increased humidity.

All is quiet across the area tonight, but some isolated shower or thunderstorm activity can't be ruled out before morning with the upper level low in place just to our North. A repeat is in store for Thursday with said upper level low in place. I expect about average coverage of showers and thunderstorms primarily from lunch time onward, however, with sufficient cold air aloft once again, a few storms could once again approach severe limits. The upper level low should weaken a bit, so the storms may not be as strong, but it certainly can't be ruled out that there might be a hail-bearer or two once again. Expect afternoon maximums right around 90.

The upper level low will not move much further West as it will bump into winds out ahead of an advancing trough. This trough will cause the ULL to be deflected back to the East. This should happen during the day Thursday, and it should be out of the area by Thursday night. A quiet period is in store Thursday night with just lots of humidity expected. Going into Friday, rain chances remain with us as the trough advances closer to the forecast area. This is a similar pattern to what we had a week ago. The cold front associated with the aforementioned trough will keep rain chances in the forecast, and help to increase them to above normal levels for Friday. Better chances are expected later in the day as the front moves in. The front may not actually clear the area until overnight Friday into Saturday, hence, rain chances will remain in the forecast for these periods as well. Activity should remain on a scattered basis, however, and I don't expect a wash out by any means. Temperatures will remain seasonable through this period as well.

If we play our cards right, this front, like its predecessor will advance into the coastal waters over the weekend. This will usher in drier air beginning during the day Saturday. It will be more noticeable by Sunday, and will remain in place for the remainder of this forecast period. Not much cooling is expected with this front, but readings should be similar to that we've seen the first part of this week. It is still August, and will be going into early September, and the main effect from any front we are lucky enough to get this time of year will be drier air. Rain chances are absent from the Sunday through Wednesday periods at this time with temperatures trending a few degrees cooler for the same period.

Tropics:
The 4th named storm of the season developed today. This is the same area of disturbed weather I highlighted in my last update. Tropical Storm Danny formed around 10a.m. after Hurricane Hunters finally found a closed low-level circulation. The storm remains somewhat disorganized tonight with an exposed low-level center, and a reconfiguring of the actual LLC is possible through tomorrow as the storm tries to find its identity. Danny is a 50 mph Tropical Storm at this time, and is expected to strengthen slowly for the next couple of days. With a trough advancing across the country, Danny is not forecasted to be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico, but it looks like it will be a close call for the East Coast. Danny could strengthen into a hurricane by this weekend. It is too early to say if Danny will actually make a U.S. landfall, but everyone along the East coast especially from North Carolina to Maine should keep a close eye on Danny. Danny is likely to be steered by a couple of mechanisms over the Atlantic. Danny is moving NW tonight around the periphery of the persistent Atlantic ridge, but will turn more to the North by Friday afternoon as it feels the effects of the ULL currently over our area, and advancing trough. The current advisory on Danny follows:

Tropical Storm Danny

26.0N
71.6W
This is about 370 miles ENE of Nassau, Bahamas and 675 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC.

Winds: 50 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Danny could become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical Storm force winds currently extend outward to 175 miles from the center.

Moving: NW @ 10 mph. This forward motion is expected through Thursday, with an acceleration in forward speed and turn to the North expected Friday.

Pressure: 29.71" or 1006 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4a.m. Thursday.









































Elsewhere in the tropics, a new tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa. A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is currently located near the Cape Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is possible through the end of the week. No other tropical storm development is forecast through Friday.













Preliminary Numbers and Zone Forecast:


LCH 70/91 71/90 72/90 20 30 0 40 30 30
LFT 68/91 70/89 71/90 20 30 0 40 40 30

BPT 72/92 73/90 74/91 20 30 0 40 30 20
AEX 66/93 69/92 68/91 20 30 0 50 30 10
POE 67/93 69/92 69/91 20 30 0 50 30 10
ARA 69/91 71/88 73/90 20 30 0 40 40 20

Tonight...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Low 70. Light South wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy, becoming Mostly Clear. Low 71. Light South wind.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms especially later in the day. High 90. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 72. SW wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning. High 90. SW wind becoming NW 10-15 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Thursday
8-27-09






70/91/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


Friday
8-28-09





71/90/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High


Saturday
8-29-09






72/90/20
Wind: SW/NW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
8-30-09






69/89/0
Wind: North 5-10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
8-31-09





68/89/0
Wind: North 5-10
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
9-1-09





66/88/0
Wind: NNW 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High


Wednesday
9-2-09





64/89/0
Wind: NNW 10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 11- Very High


*Marine Forecast from NWS-Lake Charles

Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...Southwest winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight.
Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Tides:

High: 1:01a.m.
Low: 4:49p.m.


Climate Data- Courtesy of NWS Lake Charles

Low: 74 Normal Low: 73 Record Low: 61-1917
High: 87 Normal High: 91 Record High: 101-1990

Precipitation:

Rainfall Today: Trace
Month to Date: 4.95" Normal Month to Date: 3.95"
Year to Date: 38.66" Normal Year to Date: 37.19"

Sunrise Thursday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:41p.m.


-DM-