*The blog will be in short form until further notice with possible tropical development looming in the Gulf over the next couple of days.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Before we get into the meat and potatoes of this discussion, I want to issue a disclaimer here. We have a very complex forecast developing over the next several days, so pinpointing the specifics of what will occur across the area are subject to change. I know this is a big weekend with it being a holiday, Labor Day, and many of you have plans, so just understand that at this point anything I say is not etched in stone. I also want to apologize for the length of the discussion that follows, it is pertinent that I discuss in detail what may be unfolding over the course of the next few days as we roll into the month of September. Be sure to watch the return of the video blogs above as well. I hope to have more frequent updates and revisions to this forecast as necessary over the next several days. Now, that said, let's get into the meteorology of the situation.
First, a note or two about this heat wave. It will finally be breaking as we head into September. It has been a miserable summer with the hottest average temperature ever recorded for the months of June and August. July wasn't far off that pace. We have had a handful of official 100 degree days here at Lake Charles this summer, and this is the 3rd most in history. This heat wave is the 2nd worst of this century, only the heat wave of 2000 topped this one. In that heat wave, Lake Charles set its all-time record high temperature of 107 degrees exactly 11 years ago today as it turns out. So, yes it can get hotter than it has been, but not much. This has been pretty awful, and if you're like me you are ready for some fall weather, but we will have to wait a while yet. More on that later.
Hope springs eternal for much needed rainfall over the next several days. The big high pressure cooker aloft will finally be vacating the region, so temps which have been running in the upper 90s to lower 100s will be dropping back closer to normal as we make a transition. Big changes are in the offing really beginning Thursday. We will start the day on the same quiet note with a very humid morning with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Rain chances do return on Thursday as a plume of tropical moisture currently located in the SE Gulf of Mexico surges to the NW closer to the Northern Gulf. As the deeper moisture moves towards the coast, the dry air will continue to erode. This is good news because we will see some scattered shower & thunderstorm activity as we head into the late morning and afternoon hours. Basically, Thursday should be like a typical late summer day. Rain chances stand at 40%, so hopefully this is the The plume of moisture will have a greater impact on our forecast as we head into Friday and the Labor Day weekend.
The tropical moisture that I've mentioned is still rather disorganized as of right now, but it will be moving into an area that will become more conducive for development through Friday. There is still a good deal of wind shear across the middle and Northern Gulf of Mexico, but as the ridge over the Gulf South lifts out to the NE, this wind shear will relax. Also, dry air flanked across Texas nosing into SW Louisiana will continue to erode as well. This means that the conditions will become more favorable for organization and development heading towards the weekend. There is some hint of a low-level circulation beginning to form to the North of the Yucatan Peninsula. This area will likely be investigated by a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft on Thursday to see if it is becoming better organized, and garnering tropical characteristics. The majority of our reliable forecast models also indicate tropical development by Friday. This seems logical given the time of year, and the exceptionally warm water temperatures over the Gulf. It is hard to pinpoint exactly how strong this system could be, and what its eventual track will be since it technically isn't on board yet. Models all initialize the surface low in a different location. However, there is enough consensus that the models do understand the synoptic pattern, so confidence is increasing that a tropical system will be developing over the next 48 hours. That being said, it is also important to note that the models all bring the system in the general vicinity of the Louisiana coast this weekend. However, some bring it towards SW Louisiana while others suggest SE Louisiana. There are several synoptic features that will dictate the ultimate track of this system, and many of the models suggest this system could fester offshore for days, or be nudged Eastward towards Florida after threatening our coast, our deflected back to the SW by the middle of next week as it misses an approaching trough, and the ridge builds back in. It's all a wait and see game at this time. I urge you to keep checking back for more updates through the end of the week and beyond.
The entire forecast for Friday through at least Monday hinges on what happens over the Gulf. Certainly, high rain chances will be in the offing as the conglomeration of tropical moisture, from what is dubbed as Invest 93L for the time being, pinwheels in from the Gulf of Mexico across the forecast area. Of course, as you would expect highest rain chances and the highest rainfall totals will occur closest to the coast, and will be tempered downward the further inland you move across the forecast area. The current forecast that will be laid out is subject to wholesale changes through the weekend depending on the evolution of said tropical entity. Widespread rain and potentially squally weather is likely to begin sometime on Friday as the system continues its general NW heading. Winds & seas will certainly increase offshore and along the coast regardless of what happens. Rain will be rather widespread and heavy at times on Friday as the tropical moisture takes over. Not much thunder and lightning is expected due to the tropical nature of the rain. The rain will be nearly an all day affair along the coast and across Acadiana, and it will spread W and NW through the day. 1-2" of rain is possible on Friday. Rain chances will be 70% or higher on Friday. Temperatures will also continue their downward trend due to the widespread cloudiness & rain. We will struggle to reach 90, and may not even make it to 85 in areas where it rains most of the day. Of course, you will be able to cut the humidity with a knife. Look for ENE to ESE winds up to 30 mph at times. A coastal flood threat may develop as well, but we'll take another stab at that tomorrow when we should have a better feel for things. This pattern reminds me of Hurricane Humberto in 2007, and also Tropical Storm Frances in 1998. Other storms that come to mind are Grace in 2003 and Hurricane Anita in 1977.
Regardless of development, I will retain high end rain chances for the entire Labor Day weekend as the tropical wave remains in close proximity. Of course, if this becomes an organized system then that will add a whole new degree of difficulty to this forecast. An organized tropical system would likely delay the onset of widespread rain across the area until the system approaches the coastline. This is the kind of scenario that can really wreak havoc not only on our forecast, but also lead to big problems with coastal flooding & flooding rains if the event is prolonged. Certainly, we can handle several inches of rainfall since we've been in drought conditions seemingly all year, but it can turn out to be too much of a good thing. Models suggest the potential for several inches of rain each day through early next week, and if some projections are right a flood threat will develop across all of or at least part of the area. It appears that the weather will have huge implications on any outdoor activities you may have planned. All of the High School Football games may be impacted Friday night. Thankfully, McNeese and LSU are on the road to the start the season, so our local weather won't impact them on Saturday. Your travel plans could also be impacted by the weather. It's also the beginning of Dove season for area hunters, and that could be greatly impacted. The current forecast that I will lay out will depict off and on rain through Monday with strong squalls and gusty winds possible. An additional 3-6" of rain is possible from Saturday through Labor Day itself. Temperatures will not vary much either with highs struggling to get to 85 with all the clouds and rain in place. A stiff breeze will be in place, and the direction could vary greatly depending upon the track of the low. We'll call it ENE shifting to SSE for now.
Conditions should start to improve by Tuesday, but rain chances should remain high for at least one more day with the tropical moisture in the area. This is about the time when models begin to indicate the system will move out one way or the other, however, as I noted earlier, even this isn't a given especially if a trough fails to pick up the system and lift it out to the NE. There are some models that indicate a cold front will be moving through the area on Tuesday, but given the time of year and the synoptic pattern I certainly have my doubts about it. It should remain on the wet & windy side for Tuesday. It is certainly possible that the potential "Lee" will still be affecting the area. Temperatures will be in the 70s for lows and in the 80s for highs with rain chances remaining in the high category, however, at least for now I will begin to temper them downward in anticipation that this system will get a shove one way or the other. I do believe there will be a front coming down from the Great Plains and Mid West, but I doubt it makes it all the way through SW Louisiana. However, this could still be close enough to pull the tropical entity out of the area. The bottom line here is that you should plan for a very wet Labor Day weekend, and stay tuned for further information to see if this becomes Lee in the coming days.
At the end of the period, Wednesday, conditions may or may not have improved. I will lean for a marked improvement, but retain rain chances in the process with deep moisture remaining over the area. It will likely take a front or the rebuilding of the upper ridge to cause the deep tropical moisture to evacuate the region. It will continue to feel like summer even though we'll be a week into meteorological fall. Lest we not forget that the official start of fall isn't until September 23, and that we typically don't see our first true cold front until the latter half of September. If one solution verifies, then a nice cold front will sweep through the region on Tuesday flushing out the remaining tropical moisture ahead of it, and setting us up for a nice string of days for the middle to latter half of next week. We could see lows dropping into the 60s, and highs in the mid to upper 80s...wouldn't that be nice after the awful summer we've had. It is certainly a harbinger of things to come. Otherwise, the tropical air mass may remain in place through the balance of next week, keeping the chance for scattered showers & storms in place beyond this forecast period with seasonable temperatures expected. Stay tuned & look for some graphical representation included with the tropical update. Again, I stress that this is a low confidence forecast.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 74/96 76/91 77/88 0 40 30 70 60 80
CAM 77/92 80/87 80/84 0 50 30 80 60 80
LFT 75/95 76/90 78/87 0 40 30 70 60 80
ARA 76/94 78/89 78/87 0 40 30 70 60 80
BPT 75/97 76/93 77/89 0 30 20 60 60 70
JAS 73/99 74/96 75/91 0 20 20 40 30 60
AEX 72/99 74/95 75/90 0 30 20 30 40 70
POE 72/98 74/95 75/91 0 30 20 30 40 70
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms after 10 a.m. High 96. ENE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 76. ENE wind 10-15 mph.
Friday...Watching the Tropics. Cloudy & Windy with rain likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible. High 91. East wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday Night...Watching the Tropics. Heavy rain & windy. Rainfall 1-3". Low 77. East wind 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Cloudy & windy with Heavy Rain. High 88. Rainfall 1-3". East wind 20-30 mph & gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Cloudy & continued windy with heavy rain & coastal flooding possible. Low 77. ESE wind 20-30 mph & gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Sunday...Tropical Storm Conditions Possible. Cloudy & continued windy with heavy rain & coastal flooding possible. High 86. ESE wind 25-35 mph & gusty. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall 1-3".
Sunday Night...Cloudy & windy with heavy rain & coastal flooding possible. Low 77. ESE wind 20-30 mph & gusty. Rainfall 1-3". Chance of rain 70%.
Labor Day...Cloudy & windy with heavy rain & coastal flooding possible. Tropical storm conditions still possible. High 87. ESE wind 20-30 mph & gusty. Rainfall 1-2". Chance of rain 70%.
Monday Night...Cloudy w/ rain likely. Windy. Low 75. ESE wind 20-25 mph & gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy & breezy w/ a chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SSE wind 15-25 mph & gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
9-1-11
Low: 74
High: 96
Rain: 40%
Wind: ENE 10-15
H.I.: 101-106
Friday
9-2-11
Watching the Tropics
Rain & Wind
Low: 76
High: 91
Rain: 70%
Wind: ENE 20-30
H.I.: 95-100
Saturday
9-3-11
Watching the Tropics....Tropical Storm Lee?
Rain & Wind...Heavy Rain & Coastal Flooding Possible
Low: 77
High: 88
Rain: 80%
Wind: ENE 20-30
H.I.: 92-97
Sunday
9-4-11
Continuing to Watch the Gulf
Rain & Wind
Low: 77
High: 86
Rain: 80%
Wind: ESE 20-30
H.I.: 92-97
Monday
9-5-11
Labor Day
Watching the Gulf w/ Both Eyes
Rain & Wind w/ Coastal Flooding Possible
Low: 77
High: 87
Rain: 70%
Wind: ESE 20-25
H.I.: 92-97
Tuesday
9-6-11
Tropical Airmass in Place...Cold Front Approaching
Low: 75
High: 88
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98
Wednesday
9-7-11
Perhaps a Return to Late Summer Normalcy
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
...Tropical Update...
Briefly, I will take a look at the season's 2nd hurricane, Hurricane Katia. Katia is located over the open waters of the Eastern Atlantic still several hundred miles from the Lesser Antilles. It is currently progged to keep strengthening into a major hurricane of category 3 status over the weekend as it continues a WNW heading. The current forecast calls for Katia to safely bypass the Leeward Islands in about 5 days as it begins to gain latitude. It may pose a threat to Bermuda next week, but at this time it is forecast to have little if any impact at all on the United States. There is a slim chance Katia could threaten someone along the East Coast later next week, but that is a very remote chance and is certainly not reflected in any forecast at this juncture.
If you are plotting at home here's the latest information Hurricane Katia as of 10p.m. Wednesday night. I will include the forecast track and intensity, but exclude the forecast models since it is a non-issue for us at this time.
Latitude: 15.0 N
Longitude: 44.4 W
This is about 1,165 miles E of the Leeward Islands.
Winds: 75 mph w/ higher gusts. Katia is a category 1 hurricane, and further strengthening is expected through Friday with Katia expected to obtain major hurricane status over the weekend.
Movement: WNW or 285 degrees @ 20 mph. This motion is expected to prevail through the weekend, however, an expected reduction of forward speed is expected by the weekend.
Pressure: 29.15" or 987 mb.
Also, we have the area of interest 93L in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Of course, explicit details are cited above. I will include some graphics momentarily. Just understand that this is an unorganized area of disturbed weather at this juncture, but as it continues to move NW over the next couple of days conditions will become favorable for further development, and this stands at least a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by Friday as it moves towards the NW Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, it will have an impact on our area, and everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to closely monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Thursday if they deem it necessary. Again, for more information see the forecast discussion.
Stay tuned for more information on this system on Thursday. Elsewhere in the tropics. no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Synopsis...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING. BUOYS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS ARE REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MARINE INTERESTS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Rest Of Tonight...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 5 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 6 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Have a great Thursday & God bless!
Stay tuned for more!!!
-DM-
