SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The extremely dry conditions of 2011 will persist for a while longer. As each day passes, we get deeper and deeper into drought conditions with much of the area in D5 or Extreme Drought conditions. Wednesday was another day of more of the same usual summer circumstances. It was hot & dry once again with virtually nothing in the way of scattered afternoon showers & storms. High temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices exceeding the 100 degree mark. This quiet weather will roll on tonight with very humid conditions expected under clear skies. Overnight lows will generally be at or above the mid June norms of the low to mid 70s. The warmest locations nearest the coast will likely struggle to fall below 80 with upper 70s at best. The controlling upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature, though it may weaken just a bit on Thursday to allow some isolated shower/thunderstorm activity to develop in the afternoon hours. However, anyone that does happen to get a visit from one of Mother Nature's natural air conditioners should consider themselves mighty lucky. Rain chances are too small to even mention in the official forecast for Thursday. Forecast highs should reach the mid to upper 90s once again. There will be the presence of an onshore breeze as usual, but that will do little to help keep it from being almost unbearable.
The ridge re-strengthens for Friday through early next week. Any hope for even an isolated storm or two will be non-existent. The drought will worsen as we lose between .25-.30" of soil moisture a day right now. Temperatures will continue to trend above normal for high temperatures with readings averaging the upper 90s through Monday. Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 70s with lower 80s possible near the coast due to increased marine influence. Afternoon heat indices will range in the 100-105 degrees each day. The afternoon sea breeze will be present, but with the strong capping ongoing in the upper levels it will do no more than produce the usual daily crop of fair weather cumulus clouds. Remember, to take extra precautions against the extremely hot temperatures, and against a strong June sun. Use plenty of sunscreen if venturing outdoors for long periods of time, and drink plenty of fluids to keep yourself hydrated. A nice swimming pool or just staying in the A/C may be the best course of action. Don't forget about dad on Sunday either with Father's Day! Also, remember with the persistent and worsening drought, a statewide burn ban remains in effect until further notice.
The persistent dry & hot forecast will be maintained through the end of the period on Wednesday, however, there are some signs that a better opportunity for rainfall may arise in the middle to latter portions of next week. Models indicate a weakness in the ridge developing across the Western Gulf, and the possibility of some tropical moisture allowing for an increased chance of showers & thunderstorms. This remains to be seen, and it is still too far away to say with any certainty that this will occur, so for the meantime rain chances will remain non-existent through the entire forecast period. High temperatures will continue to run from near normal to above normal in the 93-98 range, and morning lows will be in the 72-77 range. Expect skies to be Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy each day with little day to day variation through Wednesday. This forecast is strictly a temperature forecast to say the least. Every little bit helps when we're in such a deep drought, but overall even our usual scattering of afternoon showers & storms won't help to alleviate the drought conditions overall. It will take a rain event that lasts for 2-3 days and is a good soaker distributing several inches of rain across the entire area. There is no sign of such an occurrence anytime soon. If the trend continues, it is likely we won't have any fireworks this 4th of July.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 74/96 75/96 76/97 0 10 0 0 0 0
CAM 79/89 79/90 80/90 0 10 0 0 0 0
LFT 74/95 75/97 75/96 0 10 0 0 0 0
ARA 77/94 77/94 77/95 0 10 0 0 0 0
BPT 76/96 76/97 75/98 0 10 0 0 0 0
JAS 72/97 73/98 74/99 0 10 0 0 0 0
AEX 73/97 73/99 73/100 0 10 0 0 0 0
POE 73/96 74/98 74/100 0 10 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 74. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 96. South wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 75. Light SSE wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 96. South 10-15 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 97. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 75. Light South wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 97. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.
Monday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 98. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 6/16/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 4
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 8
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 12
H.I.: 98
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 15
H.I.: 102
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 100
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
6-16-11
Low: 74
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Friday
6-17-11
Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
Saturday
6-18-11
Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 102-107
Sunday
6-19-11
Father's Day
Low: 75
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
Monday
6-20-11
Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
Tuesday
6-21-11
Summer Solstice
Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 102-107
Wednesday
6-22-11
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 100-105
...Tropical Update...
All is quiet in the tropics as we begin the 3rd calendar week of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Tonight...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Monday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 10:41a.m. 10:10p.m.
High: 6:00a.m. 2:10p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
163.34'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Low: 76
Normal Low: 72
Record Low: 59-1933
High: 93
Normal High: 89
Record High: 100-1911
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.18"
Normal Month to Date: 3.14"
Year to Date: 14.69"
Normal Year to Date: 25.18"
Record: 6.00"- 1895
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 68
High: 92
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 68
High: 87
Rain: 0.06"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:11a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 8:16p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:41a.m.-8:46p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Wednesday June 15
Last Quarter- Thursday June 23
New Moon- Friday July 1
First Quarter- Friday July 8
Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
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