SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We made it through the entire first week of August without a single drop of rain across most of the area. That is a microcosm of the summer of 2011, as our overall drought continues. Temperatures have consistently been running above normal, but thankfully our proximity to the Gulf itself and the placement of the massive surface high has kept the worst of this record breaking heat wave just North of our area. Many locations in North Louisiana have recorded highs of 100 or better everyday so far this month, and that will likely continue. The same atmospheric conditions that have been in place so far this month remain with us going into the second full week of August. However, a slight adjustment to the orientation of the big surface high is expected, and that could bring back a slight chance of afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity this week. This weekend was a great time to stay in a nice, cool place, or maybe at the pool or out on the water as it was generally Partly Cloudy with temperatures running from the mid 90s to lower 100s depending upon where you were. It will be a quiet and very humid evening with overnight lows really struggling to drop below the 80 degree mark to start our Monday.
The aforementioned axis of high pressure will migrate (retrograde) back to the West a bit for Monday, thus allowing a small chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms as just enough of a weakness develops to combine with the effects of daytime heating. The anti-cyclone will still largely be in control, thus, only a minimal 20% chance is mentioned with the expectation that everything will be on a widely scattered basis. At this time, temperatures for our local area are expected to remain just below Heat Advisory criteria unlike in previous days when we had Heat Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings in effect. You will certainly still want to use caution when working outside or engaging in other activities as heat indices (feels like or apparent temperatures) will be running close to the 105 degree danger zone across much of the area, and will likely exceed 105 for at least a few hours mainly North of the I-10 corridor. After beginning the day with readings in the upper 70s to near 80, target temperatures for the afternoon will be the mid 90s along I-10 with upper 90s for communities such as Leesville and Alexandria. The historic heat wave will continue for locations to our North and West with cities such as Dallas, Shreveport, and Monroe continuing to experience temperatures in excess of 100 degrees.
The temporary nudge to the high will be short-lived as all indications are that it will begin to re-build Eastward starting Tuesday. This will once again put a clamp on the atmosphere and allow for very little vertical growth of the daily dose of cumulus clouds. Therefore, no more than an isolated shower or storm is expected for Tuesday. It is always possible that there will be one or two storms that are able to develop even with a strong cap in place given the usual process of daytime heating. As the high re-builds temperatures will respond accordingly with highs returning to the mid to upper 90s for most with well inland locations exceeding 100 once again. Morning lows will remain above seasonal norms and struggle to fall below the 80 degree mark. The surface wind flow will generally remain on the light side, and for the most part remain onshore, but as the high shifts about some variability is expected. Don't look for much relief from the wind though, and the high humidity will keep it feeling rather miserable. It is possible we will return to Heat Advisory criteria once again, but we'll take another stab at that on tomorrow's forecast.
The remainder of the work week offers a continuum. Dry & oppressively hot is the name of the game with the ridge remaining the dominant weather pattern across the Western Gulf Coast states. Rain chances should be negligible during this period, but certainly somebody but get lucky with an isolated shower or storm. Morning lows Wednesday-Friday will continue to flirt with the 80 degree mark, give or take a degree or two on any given day. Afternoon highs will approach 100 north of I-10, and jump back into the upper 90s here in the Lake Area. It wouldn't surprise me to see the heat related advisories hoisted once again. Remember, to use extreme caution when venturing outside. School starts back in some places this week, so take extra precaution with your children as well. The streak of triple digit degree days will continue North of us, and the area wide drought will prevail, and worsen once again. All of the much needed rain we received in July is simply just a memory now, we are still 11" or so below normal here in the Lake Charles area for the year. Is there any relief coming by the weekend?
The answer to that question is no! The ridge resists to move, and it might take a round-about kick from Chuck Norris to give it a heave-ho. There might be some Westward shift by the end of this forecast period next weekend, but just enough to raise rain chances slightly (20%). It doesn't look like it'll be enough to significantly lower temperatures, or even create the usual sea breeze that often causes a good number of our afternoon storms to develop. At this time, the forecast will reflect this forecasted shift in the ridge, and show temperatures a degree or two cooler for daytime highs, with morning lows remaining above 75. An onshore flow will continue to keep oppressive humidity values across the region, and the heat indices will be indicative of that with readings generally in the 103-108 range across the area. The only real good news to report with this pattern is that it works in our favor as far as tropical activity is concerned. The high serves as a blocking mechanism, thus keeping anything tropical safely away from our part of the world. However, that being said, there should not be anything of consequence in that regard this week. The regenerate Emily is dead for real this time, more on that in the tropical section below.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 78/95 79/96 80/96 0 20 0 10 0 10
CAM 82/91 82/92 81/92 0 20 0 10 0 10
LFT 79/95 78/95 79/96 0 20 0 10 0 10
ARA 80/93 80/94 80/94 0 20 0 10 0 10
BPT 79/96 80/97 79/98 0 20 0 10 0 10
JAS 77/98 77/99 78/101 0 20 0 10 0 10
AEX 77/98 76/100 77/102 0 20 0 10 0 10
POE 77/97 77/99 78/102 0 20 0 10 0 10
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 78. Light SE wind.
Monday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 95. Heat index 102-107. South wind 10 mph.
Monday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 79. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy & continued very hot. High 96. Heat index values 103-108. SSW wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 80. Light South wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy & Very Hot. High 96. Heat index values 105-110. SSW wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 79. Light South wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy & Very Hot. High 97. Heat index values 105-110. SW wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 80. Light South wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy w/ the Very Hot weather continuing. High 97. Heat index values 105-110. SSW wind 10 mph.
Monday 8/8/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Humid
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5
H.I.: 95
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 7
H.I.: 100
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Widely Scattered Showers & Storms
Temp: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 105
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Any Shower or Storm Coming to an End
Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8
H.I.: 103
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 4
H.I.: 94
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
8-8-11
Low: 78
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 102-107
Tuesday
8-9-11
Low: 79
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
Wednesday
8-10-11
Low: 80
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 105-110
Thursday
8-11-11
Low: 79
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10
H.I.: 105-110
Friday
8-12-11
Low: 80
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 105-110
Saturday
8-13-11
Low: 78
High: 97
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 105-110
Sunday
8-14-11
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 104-109
...Tropical Update...
Emily is dead for real this time. After forming nearly a week ago in the Caribbean, and then being torn apart by wind shear and the mountains of Haiti, Emily was given new life on Saturday as a very weak system over the Bahamas. However, the system continued to struggle and has now been de-classified once again by the National Hurricane Center. It is currently located about 450 miles West of Bermuda. Tropical Storm Emily's status as a Tropical Depression lasted about 24 hours. The remnants of Emily will continue to move out to sea in the Atlantic, and this should be the last time we mention her.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 6:18a.m. 5:40p.m.
High: 1:28a.m. 9:19p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
162.06'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Low: 79
Normal Low: 75
Record Low: 65-1912
High: 94
Normal High: 92
Record High: 100-1929
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 1.18"
Year to Date: 23.64"
Normal Year to Date: 34.54"
Record: 6.77"- 1940
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 0.04"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 0.02"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 75
High: 89
Rain: 0.25"
Sunrise Monday: 6:36a.m.
Sunset Monday: 8:01p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:06a.m.-8:31p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Saturday August 13
Last Quarter- Sunday August 21
New Moon- Monday August 29
First Quarter- Sunday September 4
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
Hi Drew! I'm wondering if you agree with the KPLC guy on possible tropical weather forming later this week. Any thoughts? (I trust you more than he!)
ReplyDeletehttp://kplcblogs.typepad.com/weatherblog/2011/08/8-29-2011-tropical-update.html