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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Don't think we should brag too much here in SW Louisiana, but it might be hard not to when you compare our above normal warmth to the bitterly cold Arctic air mass across the Northern 1/3 of the country. This Arctic air may eventually reach SW Louisiana down the road, but not in the next few days. We do have some changes to discuss with our weather, however, so let's get to it.
It has been a day of generally overcast conditions and continued unseasonable warmth. Daytime highs generally reached the lower 70s across much of the area. We did manage to have a decent amount of sunshine in the mid-late afternoon hours. Morning fog was not as much a factor this morning as it was on Wednesday thanks to stronger boundary layer mixing via surface winds. A weakening late January cold front is in transit at press time, and this front will continue to decay as it approaches this forecast area during the day Friday. For tonight, look for a quiet night for the most part. We will deal with re-development of the low cloud (stratus) deck & also have to mention the prospect of fog once again. Although, I do believe it will be more like it was this morning, and not be excessively dense in most areas. Sure, there will be some areas where it is more foggy than others, but for the most part tonight will not be prime conditions for fog formation. The unseasonable warmth will continue as well as the surface flow continues to be straight off the Gulf waters. Overnight lows will generally be closer to what our average daytime high is for this time of year....upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday will continue to offer much of the same conditions with highs reaching the low to mid 70s once again as the weak cold front continues to only slowly sag Southward while the weakening continues. (frontlysis). I suppose I should mention a very slight chance of some sprinkles or a light shower, but no big deal.
The final weekend of January 2013 will be a decent one, probably the 2nd best weekend so far this year. The weakening front will wash out virtually overhead, but will do little to affect our way. Perhaps, there might be one or two small, brief showers Saturday, but at this point I believe the chances are too negligible to even mention in the actual forecast. Cloud cover may be rather prevalent especially the first half of the day before somewhat drier air moves in to scour out the cloudiness. That should set the stage for an afternoon filled with plenty of sunshine & a just a slight reduction in maximum temperatures. Highs will be back to the mid 60s to around 70. Sunday be the reverse of Saturday, meaning drier air will be in place in the morning before the return flow kicks up again in earnest, bringing back low-level moisture & cloud cover for the afternoon, but we remain dry. So, your outdoor weekend plans look just fine! Sunday's temperatures will continue to be above the norm for late January with low to mid 70s for highs afternoon a morning start around the 50 degree threshold. There's always a lot to do around here this time of year with Mardi Gras getting revved up & crawfish season in full force now. Of course, it is a great time to be in Louisiana, and we will have a lot of visitors to the state over the next couple weeks with the Super Bowl & Mardi Gras. Hopefully, Mother Nature will cooperate the whole time.
That would not appear to be so as we head into next week, as it stands right now anyway. Model discrepancy is wreaking havoc on trying to forecast with any accuracy beyond about Monday really. I believe it is safe to go ahead and add small rain chances to the forecast for Monday as deeper Gulf moisture pulls in over the area, while the next trough advances & deepens out West. It certainly seems almost a certainty at this point, that the Jet Stream will be digging once again, and unlike this week, it will be digging to our West again. The unseasonably warm late January weather will continue to reside over SW Louisiana, until we get the trough to advance into and past our area. The active Jet Stream will dig to the SE and the previously active Subtropical Jet Stream will get energized once again by Tuesday & Wednesday. This will result in short waves (disturbances) developing and rotating through the area in advance of the main trough. This will increase rain chances for Tuesday & especially Wednesday. Models diverge on how strong the system will be & the timing of it as well. For now, a blend is perhaps the best course of action. There is certainly a chance we could have some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as the latest cold front swings through the area, but this is something that will need further fine tuning given the large discrepancies in the models. I will not mention this at this time, and will reserve that right to later forecasts after the weekend. Rainfall totals are in question as well. One model has generally had a wet bias this winter, while the other has a dry bias, and that is presumed to be the case once again. This doesn't look anything like the previous rainfall event between the 8th and 16th, but it could produce a 1-2" rain across the area. Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs through Wednesday, and lows may climb into the lower 60s by Tuesday & Wednesday with plenty of low-level moisture in place resulting in high dew points across the area. Fog will also be possible each morning Monday-Wednesday, but there looks to be enough atmospheric mixing to keep it from being a major issue.
Model divergence rearing its ugly head at the end of the period presents a somewhat questionable forecast for the end of the period. Some model output suggests the mid-week front slowing down & hanging around into Thursday which might keep rain chances going, however, other & what I feel are the most reliable models show the front clearing the area Wednesday afternoon with a much cooler & drier air mass spilling into the region by Wednesday Night. This would set us up for a quiet end to the month of January on Thursday. Temperatures are also in question. The pattern favors at least some modified Arctic air invading the region, however, models don't really show anything cooler than we've already experienced this winter. In light of this, I will once again blend the forecast. That is, I will reflect a return to below normal temperatures, but not as cold as it could potentially be. Hard to believe it will February a week from tomorrow, and then the Super Bowl next weekend. An early glance at the forecast shows dry but cold weather in place with the potential for some freezing temperatures, but that of course, is still beyond the scope of the 7 day forecast & is considered to be hogwash at this time. I don't believe we are done with winter around here; we typically need to make it to the 2nd half of February before we can turn the corner towards Spring. In closing, a little climatology note regarding rainfall...The all-time record rainfall for the month of January at Lake Charles is 14.29" in 1991, and so far this year we have received officially 11.32" of rain. We could still break the monthly record depending on how much additional rain we receive next week. The good news is at least, we have had a week now with no rain to give our rivers & other flooded areas a chance to dry out. Many areas have received over 15" of rain this month. I will have a summary on that in the coming days.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/73 55/68 51/71 0 10 10 10 0 0
CAM 61/68 62/70 58/68 0 10 10 10 0 0
LFT 55/74 56/68 50/72 0 10 10 10 0 0
ARA 60/73 57/69 52/72 0 10 10 10 0 0
BPT 60/75 54/71 53/73 0 10 10 10 0 0
JAS 54/72 50/67 48/70 0 10 10 10 0 0
AEX 53/73 50/66 47/68 0 20 20 10 0 0
POE 53/73 50/66 47/69 0 20 20 10 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. South wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Early Morning Patchy Fog otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm. High 73. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night....Mostly Cloudy & just slightly cooler. Low 55. SW wind 5-10 mph, becoming West 10 mph toward sunrise.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. High 68. NW wind 10-15 mph becoming NE in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 51. Light East wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 71. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ areas of fog developing after midnight. Low 58. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Areas of Fog early, then Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers mainly during the afternoon. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & a few thunderstorms. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday 1/21/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog
Temp:57
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 6
W.C. N/A
9a.m.
Weather: Partly To Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 11
W.C. N/A
Noon
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 12
W.C.:N/A
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 14
W.C.:N/A
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 7
W.C.: N/A
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 8
W.C.: N/A
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
1-25-13
Low: 57
High: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Saturday
1-26-13
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: NW/NE1 0-15
W.C.: N/A
Sunday
1-27-13
Low: 51
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Monday
1-28-13
Low: 58
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Tuesday
1-29-13
Low: 61
High: 74
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
W.C.: N/A
Wednesday
1-30-13
High: 70
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
W.C.: N/A
Thursday
1-31-13
Low: 35
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 2 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:44a.m. 8:52p.m.
High: 3:44p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.21'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Low: 48
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 12-1948
High: 72
Normal High: 62
Record High: 85-1914
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 11.32"
Normal Month to Date: 4.15"
Year to Date: 11.32"
Normal Year to Date: 4.15"
Record: 6.60"- 1915
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2012)
Low: 54
High: 66
Rain: 0.21"
5 Years Ago (2008)
Low: 42
High: 49
Rain: 0.52"
10 Years Ago (2003)
Low: 23
High: 42
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:44p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:37a.m.-6:14p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Saturday January 26
Last Quarter- Sunday February 3
New Moon- Sunday February 10
First Quarter- Sunday February 17
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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