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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Before I get to the weather, the usual business at hand, I want to make a brief, exciting personal announcement! As you already know, I tied the knot earlier this year, and it's been an amazing 8 months already with beautiful, smoking hot wife! However, that's not all...God has been so good, and has blessed us more than words could ever describe! I am proud to announce that Lucy & I are expecting our first child in May. Lucy is about 12 weeks pregnant, and little baby is progressing quite nicely so far. I will keep all of you updated as we go along. Please keep us in your prayers & thoughts as we walk this amazing journey & prepare to bring this new life into the world & become parents. Now onto the forecast...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather for the last few days has been as beautiful as my wife! One of those two will not be nearly as beautiful as we go through the work week, and it's not my wife. The controlling area of high pressure is already exiting stage right, and we have seen an increase in low-level moisture on this Sunday. Morning lows were about 6-12 degrees warmer on average across the area this morning. We were in the upper 40s on Saturday, and readings were near 60 here at Lake Charles this morning. After a cloud-free Friday & Saturday, we have seen the return of some fairweather cumulus clouds this afternoon, but all in all it has been a beautiful Sunday as well. Sundays are always more beautiful when the Saints win! It has been seasonably warm with highs in the lower 80s on the average. A dry pattern will continue overall for much of the week with no real weather systems to speak of. We will retain an onshore flow as surface high pressures will be absent across the area, but remain in place aloft. This means that we will see temperatures return to normal to above normal for late October. Morning lows will be in the 60s while afternoon highs remain in the low to mid 80s as the Gulf waters greatly influence our weather. Late night/early morning patchy fog is certainly possible in this pattern, but given the relatively dry ground, I don't foresee anything of significance to even mention in the official forecast. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy each day through at least Thursday.
Changes are expected as we round out the work week, and more specifically next weekend. However, this far out there is always a question of timing and to what extent? Friday should certainly see a more substantial increase in cloud cover, and surface winds will likely increase as well. This, as a strong & deepening trough will be advancing out of the Rocky Mountain region. This will further enhance moisture across the forecast area, and at this time it appears that it is necessary to insert a small chance of rain for the Friday time frame. However, upper level ridging will largely keep the atmosphere capped, so I don't expect much more than just some isolated & brief shower activity mainly due to streaming Gulf moisture. The advancing trough will set the stage for the strongest cold front of the season to make its way through the forecast area on Saturday. Like its predecessor, this front doesn't look to be a major rain producer across the area at this time. Better moisture & convergence should be in place in the vicinity of the front, and at that time we is when we will likely see our best chance for showers & thunderstorms. The modes differ on the timing of the front, with some showing an arrival as early as Friday, while others holding the front back until Saturday middle of the day. Given the strength of this front, the faster solution may end up winning out, but for now I will take the middle of the road solution reflecting frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday. At this time, I believe the best chance for shower & thunderstorm activity will come well after all of Friday Night's important High School Football games.
Behind the front, much colder air will begin to infiltrate the region replacing the warm & humid air mass that will engulf the region in the pre-frontal environment. Strong Northerly winds will usher in a fresh, continental air mass & it promises to be the coolest air so far this season. Models once again vary from run to run on just how cool (or cold depending on what is cold to you) it will be. The timing issues will become very important because it is McNeese homecoming Saturday, and of course, we don't want rain for the game. There is also some model output that suggest a more shallow air mass which would translate to some form of overrunning moisture in the post-frontal environment. If that were to transpire, we would likely not get rid of the cloud cover & also have to keep rain chances in the forecast for the balance of the day on Saturday & maybe even for Sunday. However, given the current pattern this fall, my forecast will not reflect any such idea of that scenario right now. High pressure will build in & conditions will improve during the course of the day Saturday. It will remain rather windy though, and CAA will offset daytime heating as the sun returns later int he day. Morning lows will likely still be in the 60s on Saturday morning depending on the timing of the front, but if it comes in sooner, then 50s are likely for much of the area. With CAA in place, highs will still struggle to reach the mid 70s. It should be on the chilly side for the remainder of the weekend, just in time for the homecoming game. Lows on Saturday night should be well down in the 40s...let's call it mid 40s along I-10 as skies clear and winds decrease. Sunday looks beautiful with lots of sunshine as a mix of Canadian & Pacific air will be in place via a building ridge of high pressure. Highs may barely reach 70 Sunday, but may just well only reach the 60s for most of the area depending on just how much cold air moves in. Some of the coldest locations may dip into the upper 30s for morning lows for the first time this season in about week. The coolest air mass of the season will hang around in the waning days of October with modification as we head towards Halloween.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 64/85 66/85 66/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 70/82 70/82 71/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 63/84 64/86 65/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 64/84 66/85 67/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 66/86 67/87 68/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS 59/83 62/85 65/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 58/82 61/84 63/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 59/82 62/85 64/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 64. Light South wind.
Monday...Mostly Sunny. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. SE wind 5 mph.
Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Breezy w/ a 20% chance of a shower. High 84. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Monday 10/22/12 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
10-22-12
Low: 64
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Tuesday
10-23-12
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Wednesday
10-24-12
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Thursday
10-25-12
Low: 66
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
Friday
10-26-12
Low: 67
High: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
10-27-12
Low: 62
High:73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25
Sunday
10-28-12
Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Tropical Update...
Of course, it is still officially hurricane season, but I would say that we have certainly turned the corner here, and have made it past the time when anything would threaten us. However, just for the sake of forecasting, let's take a look and see what's going on.
There are currently two areas of interest. One lies in the Central Caribbean to the South Hispaniola and Jamaica. This area is festering in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean, and has been nearly stationary or moved only slowly Westward in the past couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical development within the next day or two. This system will move little through Monday with only a slow Westward nudge expected through mid-week. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 70% chance of development through Tuesday. Heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods will be possible across Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.
Also, interaction between a tropical wave and an upper level low is generating an area of showers & thunderstorms across the Central Atlantic about 750 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles. This system is an a favorable area for further development at this time, but conditions will likely become less favorable for development by the middle of the week. This system is given a 40% chance of development through Tuesday. It will move off to the NNW at around 10 mph.
The next two names on the list for the 2012 season are Sandy and Tony. If either one of these systems develop, they will have no impact on SW Louisiana.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated through Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight... Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Monday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Wednesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 5:07a.m. 3:53p.m.
High: 8:00a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.00'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Low: 61
Normal Low: 58
Record Low: 32-1917
High: 86
Normal High: 80
Record High: 92-1927
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.42"
Normal Month to Date: 3.17"
Year to Date: 64.58"
Normal Year to Date: 46.65"
Record: 1.21"- 2006
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2011)
Low: 46
High: 80
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2007)
Low: 60
High: 85
Rain: 0.16"
10 Years Ago (2002)
Low: 63
High: 68
Rain: 0.70"
Sunrise Monday: 7:20a.m.
Sunset Monday: 6:34p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:50a.m.-7:04p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Monday October 22
Full Moon- Monday October 29
Last Quarter- Wednesday November 7
New Moon- Tuesday November 13
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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