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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion.....It was an unseasonably warm & overcast late January day. Winds have also increased as the return flow of Gulf moisture deepens across the area. This is all in advance of the next potent storm system which is sweeping through the Great Plains and Upper MidWest at press time. This will affect SW Louisiana in the late afternoon Tuesday-early Wednesday morning time frame. Certainly, showers & thunderstorms will be prevalent across our part of the world, but will there be a severe weather threat as well? That is the main question for this forecast package, and I will answer it as best I can shortly. First, in the short-term look for a relatively uneventful Monday evening with a continuation of the overcast conditions. The atmosphere remains largely capped at this time. Low-level moisture is at a premium across the region already, and this only continue to be the case through the night. Some areas of fog will exist as we head into the Tuesday morning commute, but surface winds should stay up just enough to keep the atmosphere mixed up to preclude a significant fog threat with the exception of the coastal counties/parishes. Areas along and South of I-10 have a better chance of seeing widespread dense fog. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the aforementioned coastal areas. It is highly possible as the night wears on that the dense fog advisory could be extended further North. It is a given, however, that Mostly Cloudy and unseasonably warm conditions will continue and temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 60s. Most of the day tomorrow will remain just dry & unseasonably warm. The wind will be the big story for the day on Tuesday due to the increasing pressure gradient in response to the developing/approaching storm system. Winds out of a Southerly direction will continue on the order of 15-20 mph at times with higher gusts. A slight chance of a brief shower or two can't be ruled out by early afternoon, but rain chances don't really ramp up until late afternoon or evening. It may well still be dry across much of the area for evening drive time. This appears to be a set up that will allow for an accelerating system across this area.
Time frame for shower & thunderstorm activity looks to be from around 6p.m. to 6a.m. The current trough which resides across the Rocky Mountains will advance Eastward, and traverse SW Louisiana Tuesday Night. This will clash with the ample amounts of moisture we have to generate shower & thunderstorm activity across the area most likely sunset. Activity will be scattered in nature at first in the pre-frontal environment. The enhanced Jet Stream activity along with a surface low moving from SW to NE along the cold front will also add more instability to the equation, thus the severe weather threat. The entire forecast area is highlighted for at least a slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity. The northern extremity of the forecast area is pegged for a moderate risk. It does appear that the greatest threat for severe weather will reside safely to the NE of our area. A significant tornado outbreak looks to be unfolding from NE Louisiana through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. I'm sure it will be a long night for someone here across the South. Here at home, certainly some severe storms are possible, but from everything I have perused this should be on an isolated nature. Heavy rain looks like a good bet for all of us, but some of the storms along & ahead of the front could become rather boisterous producing damaging winds, large hail, or an isolated tornado. Damaging winds are the main threat with our storms, and to narrow down a time frame even further, the best chance for this looks be between 10p.m. for the extreme NW portion of the forecast area, to 4a.m. for the extreme SE portion. I will target 12-2a.m. for the Lake Area. I would advise to go ahead and have your severe weather plan of action in place for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning since this will more than likely come by the time most of us are asleep. Check your NOAA Weather Radio to make sure it's in alert mode. You might want to leave your TV or radio on all night, so that you can be informed that way if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio. Flashlights & battery-powered radios/TVs/your cell phone are good items to have as well should their be a loss of power. Aside from this slight risk of severe weather, brief heavy rainfall is likely. This system is a fast mover, so that will in turn, limit rainfall totals. Soil moisture content across the area is still very high, and we don't need a whole lot of rain given the recent flooding, but should there be any flooding it should be localized & mostly be in urban & low-lying areas. All of this quickly progresses Eastward through the night, and the storms will be a distant memory (hopefully nothing more) by sunrise Wednesday. Some post-frontal shower activity is possible for a few hours behind the front, but much drier & much cooler air will quickly be taking over. The boundary layer moisture will be quickly scoured out as well, thus eliminating a prolonged period of overrunning. I have included some graphical representation of the severe weather outlook for Day 2 (Tuesday).
The remainder of the forecast period offers a period of tranquility. This will be welcomed for sure by all involved with the Super Bowl activities & the plethora of Mardi Gras activities ongoing as well. Let us not forget it is Rodeo weekend here in Lake Charles as well. High pressure will ridge into the area from the Western U.S. as the day progresses Wednesday. Morning clouds will give way to sunny skies by around lunch time, if not sooner. Temperatures will return to near seasonal levels for late January, so after one more day of highs in the mid to potentially upper 70s Tuesday, we'll see highs back into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday. Chilly weather is on tap for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning with clear skies & light winds in place thanks to the ridge of high pressure. Lows will be very close to freezing for Thursday Morning. Abundant sunshine will result in a quick warm up with highs reaching the mid 60s...nice & refreshing! Slight moderation begins Friday, but it will continue to be very nice. Morning lows will be in the 30s once again while highs reach the low to mid 60s. Subtle changes for the weekend. Another, but weaker cold front, will be heading our way Saturday. This will create very little weather across the way, perhaps just scare up some clouds. No rain as moisture will remain very limited due to lack of a prolonged return flow. Temperatures won't change all that much either. Seasonal temperature values are expected both Saturday & Sunday. Sunday looks super for any of your outdoor Super Bowl Sunday plans. Normal temperatures for early February are low 40s for lows and low to mid 60s for highs. Rounding out the forecast period on Monday, clouds will increase as a progressive pattern will be in place. Return flow of low-level moisture will advance across the area, but at this time rain chances are not expected to return until beyond this forecast period with the next front scheduled around the middle of next week. The big time Arctic outbreaks that have been visiting the Northern third of our great nation look to remain away from SW Louisiana for the time being. It is possible some modified Arctic air will visit the area in the day 10-14 period, but this is no concern for us right now. We're in fine shape after this bump in the road over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned for more!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 63/77 54/65 32/62 10 40 90 10 0 0
CAM 68/73 60/66 41/65 10 40 90 10 0 0
LFT 63/76 55/64 33/62 10 30 90 20 0 0
ARA 65/77 55/65 35/85 10 30 90 20 0 0
BPT 66/78 53/66 34/64 10 40 90 10 0 0
JAS 62/77 53/62 30/62 10 50 90 10 0 0
AEX 62/78 51/61 29/60 10 50 90 10 0 0
POE 62/78 51/61 30/61 10 50 90 10 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 63. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Patchy Fog early. Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly after 4p.m. High 77. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Tuesday Night...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe storms possible w/ damaging wind & isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall expected as well. Rainfall totals around 1" with isolated 2" amounts. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 54. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty becoming WNW at 15-20 mph & gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday...Morning clouds giving way to Sunny skies by noon. Cooler. High 65. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Cold. Low 32. Light NW wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 62. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear & Seasonably Cold. Low 36. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 64. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 41. East wind 5 mph.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 67. SE wind 5-10 mph, becoming NW 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday 1/29/13 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 7
9a.m.
Weather: Cloudy & Breezy
Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Cloudy & Windy
Temp: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
3p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ some Scattered Showers Developing
Temp:76
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 18
6p.m.
Temp: 72
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15
9p.m.
Weather: Showers & Thunderstorms Likely
Temp: 70
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
1-29-13
Low: 63
High: 77
Rain: 40% PM...90% Overnight
Wind: SSE 15-20
Wednesday
1-30-13
Low: 54
High: 65
Rain: 90% Before Daybreak...0% During the Day
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
1-31-13
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
2-1-13
Low: 36
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
2-2-13
Groundhog Day
Low: 41
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE/NNW 5-10
Sunday
2-3-13
Super Bowl Sunday...Ravens vs. 49ers...New Orleans
Low: 43
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
2-4-13
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Dense Fog Advisory through 9a.m. Tuesday.*
*Small Craft Exercise Caution through Early Tuesday.*
Tonight: Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy dense fog in the evening...then areas of dense fog after midnight. Visibility 1 nm or less.
Tuesday: South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less early in the morning...then areas of fog in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday Night: Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday: Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet then 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday: East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Friday: East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night: East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 9:51a.m. 10:24p.m.
High: 2:30a.m. 4:41p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.58'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, January 28, 2013
Low: 64
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 21-1897
High: 76
Normal High: 62
Record High: 81-1912
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 11.32"
Normal Month to Date: 4.76"
Year to Date: 11.32"
Normal Year to Date: 4.76"
Record: 3.00"- 1916
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2012)
Low: 46
High: 69
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2008)
Low: 35
High: 67
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2003)
Low: 45
High: 68
Rain: 0.02"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:48p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:35a.m.-6:18p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Sunday February 3
New Moon- Sunday February 10
First Quarter- Sunday February 17
Full Moon- Monday February 25
Have a great Tuesday, & stay tuned for more on the impinging severe weather & God Bless!
-DM-
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