***The blog stays in short form until further notice because of the tropics being so active.***
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today's forecast panned out right in line with what I laid out for you last night (always a good feeling when it verifies). It was a day of just slightly better than normal coverage of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. There was a load of humidity all compliments of an elongated trough situated across the Gulf Coastal Plain. This feature essentially served as a warm front over the weekend, and ushered deep tropical air and tons of humidity back into the region after a few days reprieve during the latter half of last week. The elongated trough helped to initiate the usual afternoon sea breeze feature, and showers and storms occurred at random sites across the forecast area. Skies were generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy, and temperatures warmed up to near normal levels on this Monday afternoon with readings in the lower 90s after a morning start in the mid 70s. Because of residual low-level moisture and the high humidity and wet grounds from weekend rain there were some areas of patchy fog this morning. All convection has ceased tonight, but given the deep tropical air mass in place, one or two nocturnals can't be ruled out, neither can the prospects of some early morning low clouds and fog again. It will continue to be very humid with generally Partly Cloudy to Mostly Clear skies and temperatures residing in the mid to upper 70s by morning.
The latter half of the work week will offer up a continuation of the standard late summer offerings. Drier air will continue to be in place in the mid and upper levels, and at the same time the lower levels will continue drying out somewhat as the ridge from the East continues to build in further. Don't let the fact that some drier air will filter into the lower levels fool you, it won't make it any less humid. There is no weak cool front to provide a reprieve this time. Rain chances will be no more than 20% each day Thursday-Friday, and you can consider yourself mighty lucky if you get a downpour on either one of those days. Similar temperatures are to be expected with low to mid 90s for highs, and generally mid 70s for lows. As we head into the weekend, not much change is in the offing for the entire Labor Day weekend. This is good news for all weekend activities. All football games should be dry, even the ones held during the day on Saturday with a very limited chance for scattered afternoon showers and storms. It'll be hot with plenty of humidity. Average highs will be nearly average for early September with low to mid 90s continuing, and average lows will be near the seasonal norm as well in the mid 70s. All in all, it should be a fairly uneventful Labor Day weekend. Rain chances will be no greater than 20% chance each day through Labor Day. The weather may get a bit more eventful at points to our NE along the Eastern Seaboard late this week, with the advancement of Hurricane Earl, but he will have no impact on our weather. More on that in the tropical section.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 76/92 76/93 75/93 20 30 10 20 10 20
LFT 76/93 75/93 76/92 20 30 10 20 10 20
BPT 76/94 75/93 75/94 20 30 10 20 10 20
AEX 73/94 74/94 75/95 20 30 10 20 10 20
POE 74/94 74/94 75/95 20 30 10 20 10 20
ARA 77/91 76/92 77/95 20 30 10 20 10 20
Tonight...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SSE wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. Light SSE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday 8/31/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 76
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 82
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 6
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
H.I.: 95
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 100
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 98
9p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 76
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-1-10
2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav
Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
9-2-10
Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
9-3-10
Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
9-4-10
Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
9-5-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Monday
9-6-10
Labor Day
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropical Update...
The tropics continue to be active, and as one storm dies another one is amping up in a big way tonight. We also have the birth of a new storm, the former 97L, has become Fiona over the open waters of the Atlantic. Danielle is decaying and has become a large extratropical or post-tropical storm, and Earl is enormous as it brushes by the Caribbean Islands with the chances of a possible impact to the East Coast of the U.S. later this week on the rise. While there is a plethora of activity to discuss in the Atlantic at this time, all is quiet closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico with the idea that things will stay this way for awhile. Let's look at some specifics for each storm starting with Danielle.
Decaying Danielle...Danielle is in the process of dying over the colder waters of the North Atlantic. It has merged with the initial trough that caused her to turn to the NE, and has become the extratropical entity that it was forecast to become. It weakened to just under hurricane strength Monday afternoon, and will remain a large and powerful extratropical storm as it heads for the British Isles in the coming days. High winds and seas will occur over the Northern Atlantic. We can finally put the season's first major hurricane, luckily a harmless one, to rest. The final advisory has been written on Danielle, and this will be the last mention of her here on the blog as well. Here is the final advisory.
Tropical Storm Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Monday, August 30, 2010
...Danielle Dying Over the Open Waters of the North Atlantic...Now an Extratropical System...
Latitude: 41.3 N
Longitude: 47.1 W
This position is about 475 miles SE of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 mph w/ higher gusts. Further weakening is expected over the next 24 hours, and Danielle will merge with a large non[-tropical low pressure system over the cold waters of the Northern Atlantic within a day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend out to 275 miles from the center of circulation.
Movement: E or 80 degrees @ 16 mph. This general motion is forecast to continue with an increase in forward speed over the next couple of days. A turn to the NE is expected by late Wednesday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 28.79" or 975 mb.
Now, while the forecast is nearly impeccable here in the short term, the long term forecast still has lots of question marks. The threat to the East Coast of the U.S. from Cape Hatteras, NC to the New England States likely around Friday if such a threat were to occur. Ultimately, the ridge that is currently steering Earl will give way to an approaching trough as Earl nears the periphery of the Atlantic Ridge. This should result in Earl beginning to take a right-hand turn toward the NW. This will ultimately steer it closer to the U.S. Coastline. Models diverge on just how close an actual landfall will be in the U.S., but most suggests that Earl will pass close enough to produce some fairly adverse weather all along the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. Further adjustments to the eventual track of Earl will be forthcoming. After Earl makes the right-hand turn to the NW by Wednesday, he will continue to gain in latitude and as the trough strengthens and advances towards the storm it will begin to turn it NE paralleling the coastline. This should occur by Thursday as Earl is traversing the Gulf Stream. Earl is projected to remain a major hurricane of at least category 3 strength through Thursday when some wind shear will increase from the SW thanks to the aforementioned trough. This will make strengthening come to an abrupt end, and Earl should begin weakening at this point in time. It will still be quite a formidable hurricane as it makes the turn to parallel the East Coast. It may bring tropical storm conditions to many of the major cities along the East Coast, and depending how close it gets to the actual coastline, hurricane conditions somewhere along the Eastern Seaboard can't be ruled out. Stay tuned! While we will watch and wait to see where Earl will ultimately wind up, it is great news that Earl poses no threat to the Gulf Coast at all. A direct hit on the Eastern U.S. is not currently depicted, but again can't be ruled out. In 5 days, the storm is shown to be inland over Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. The wind shear and colder water will help to weaken Earl in the day 4-5 time period. All interests from the Carolinas to New England should closely monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane over the next several days especially given the high amount of uncertainty in the forecast track beyond 3 days.
Hurricane Earl Advisory
10p.m. Monday, August 30, 2010
...Earl, the Season's Second Major Hurricane Gives a Glancing Blow to Puerto Rico & the U.S. Virgin Islands...
Latitude: 19.9 N
Longitude: 66.2 W
This places the eye of Hurricane Earl about 105 miles N of San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph w/ higher gusts- category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend out to 70 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 200 miles from the eye of Earl.
Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 14 mph. This general WNW motion is expected through Tuesday morning, but a turn to the NW is expected by Tuesday evening. On this track, the center of Hurricane Earl will pass well North of Puerto Rico Tuesday morning, and pass East of the Turks and Caicos Islands Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.
Minimum Central Pressure: 27.55" or 933 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico including the islands of Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. & British Virgin Islands, & the Turks & Caicos Islands.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the SE Bahamas.
Wind...Expect tropical storm conditions to slowly subside over the British & U.S. Virgin Islands Tuesday morning. Puerto Rico will experience tropical storm conditions through Tuesday morning. Some higher wind gusts are expected over the higher elevations in Puerto Rico before winds subside in that region by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds will reach the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night.
Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 4-8" with higher isolated amounts to near 12" are expected across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, & the Northern Leeward Islands.
Finally, Fiona...Fickle Fiona Flounders Her Way Through the Tropical Atlantic...Is she looking for Shrek? Not sure about that, but I am sure we have the 6th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Fiona formed on Monday from the former Invest 97L. Fiona, like its predecessors, is in the formative stages as it moves further away from the West Coast of Africa. It is the season's third Cape Verde storm. This is the season's 6th named storm, and it has formed ahead of the normal climatology for this point in the season. Fiona is still in its formative stage, and the environment ahead of Fiona favors additional development at least in the short-term. Only a modest intensification is shown for Fiona through 5 days by the National Hurricane Center. Fiona may have a hard time getting her act together early on because of the relatively close behind Earl.
The environment will be favorable for modest development for the next couple of days, but the favorable set up may be eliminated during the latter portion of this work week. Fiona will be moving into an area where the shear will be increasing, and into a pocket of cooler air as a result of Earl's upwelling. These factors will likely combine to keep Fiona a low end tropical storm through the period, and it's not entirely impossible that Fiona could weaken all together. However, at this time that is not reflected, and it is also just as possible for more strengthening to occur that is currently expected. We are in the early stages with Fiona, so there is plenty of time to determine an exact track for the storm, although it may follow very closely to Keith. Fiona is moving Westward at a very good clip right now as she is being steered by the same anti-cyclone that is steering Earl. These steering currents will continue for the next day or so before Fiona begins to feel the trailing steering currents from Earl, and makes a turn to the NW. Fiona will likely slow down its forward progression as well in a few days as the steering currents become weaker between the ridge to the East of the storm and the trough to the West. Fiona could be a threat to the East Coast of the United States down the road as well, but it too appears as though it will miss the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory
10p.m. Monday, August 30, 2010
...Fiona, the Season's 6th Named Storm is Moving Westward Rapidly...
Latitude: 15.5 N
Longitude: 51.8 W
This is 670 miles East of the Lesser Antilles.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Fiona is a minimal tropical storm at this time, but some strengthening is expected through Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 140 miles from the center.
Movement: W or 280 degrees @ 23 mph. A turn toward the WNW and a decrease in forward speed are expected through Wednesday. On this forecast track, the center of Fiona is forecast to pass through the Northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.74" or 1007 mb.
Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba, and St. Eustatius.
Elsewhere in the tropics, another healthy tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa. This wave seems poised to develop in the coming days. Time will tell if this will become Gaston. It is on the board as Invest 98L for now.
No other tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night And Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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