The forecast is coming up momentarily. I just wanted to take a moment to tell you about some upcoming features to the blog. As I mentioned last week, the return of audio blogs is coming soon. This should occur beginning around September 1. I figure that would be a good time to start that up again with the peak of hurricane season drawing near as well as the beginning of football season, and the end of summer.
Also, the anniversary of many hurricanes are approaching. August 26 is the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Sunday, August 29, is the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Wednesday, September 1, is the 2 year anniversary of Hurricane Gustav, while September 13 marks the 2 year anniversary of Hurricane Ike and the 3 year anniversary of Hurricane Humberto. Last, but not least around these parts, is the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Rita, that occurs on Friday, September 24.
I will take a look back at each one of these storms and look at its impact on Louisiana. Much of the focus will be on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, since they are by far the worst storms ever to strike Louisiana. Of course, Katrina will garner so much national attention in the coming days. I will post a lot of information on Katrina, but since our area was more severely impacted by Rita, a storm forgotten by the national media, the blog will focus a great deal on Rita. I certainly don't want to minimize the destruction or the impact of its predecessors, but since Rita was truly our storm it will get most of the attention here. Look for the look back of Hurricane Andrew coming up on Thursday, and posts specifically about Hurricane Katrina this weekend through Monday of next week. I will have more information about these storms in the coming days and remind you again as each anniversary approaches. Now onto the forecast...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weak, rare August cool front has slipped through the landscape of SW Louisiana, and is traversing SE Texas at present. It was another very hot day across the forecast area, however, it was a bit more bearable than we would normally expect for late August around these parts. Max temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s across the area, but heat indices were just above 100 with the lower dew points. This resulted in lower humidity values in the 30-40% range. That's more reminiscent of October around here. The weak cool front remains in the vicinity, and a few very isolated showers have developed at random across the area as the front helps to scour out the remaining deep moisture in the boundary layer. Most everyone was dry today, and will remain dry for the next few days. The atmosphere will continue to dry out tonight with the drier air even filtering down to the coast by morning. SE Texas will get into the dry air as well, though the process may take a bit longer there due to the orientation of the weakening cool front. The temperatures overnight will be below the benchmark for late August, and while the temperatures won't feel like October, I suppose beggars can't be choosers, so we'll settle for lower 70s for most. The Northernmost portions of the forecast area will likely see some mid to upper 60s, so that will certainly be a breath of fresh air first thing in the morning.
The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday is a simple one. Drier air will be in place in the wake of the decaying frontal boundary in the nearshore waters. The drier air in place will actually help the atmosphere heat up even faster than usual with the full effect of hot late August sun. Therefore, high temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be above the normal levels for late August. Expect mid 90s on average with a few upper 90s in the warmer locations across the forecast area. Mostly Sunny skies should prevail in response to the lower moisture levels. The atmosphere will remain largely capped with high pressure in place, and no convection is expected through Thursday. The drier air will do wonders for the apparent temperature (heat index) as well. Heat index values will be much closer to the actual temperature than they normally would be on a typical late August afternoon. They should remain below the danger zone of 105, so that is certainly a welcome change in what has been an incredibly hot summer. A light offshore flow will prevail. The overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday will feel refreshing to some once again with minimums right around the 70 degree threshold again.
The dry air may persist into a portion of Friday before noticeable changes occur. The breath of fresh air may greet us again Friday morning with minimums around 70, but this brief reprieve from the ridiculously humid air will be coming to an end in a hurry at week's end. The weak frontal boundary will meander in the Gulf waters. It will begin to retreat Northward towards week's end, and this will bring back the deep tropical air, and moisten up the boundary layer. At the same time, models still depict some sort of surface reflection developing along the old frontal boundary in the Gulf. The idea of cyclogenesis is feasible considering the time of year. Any cold front that happens to make it into the Gulf waters this time of year, has the potential to spin up a surface low. It is still too early to say for sure if this is going to happen, but with convection already present over the middle of the Gulf the idea is on the table. Regardless of any surface low development, moisture increase is inevitable. The moisture influx will begin on Friday, and rain chances will be re-introduced to the forecast at this time. Friday will essentially be a typical late summer day with afternoon convection the primary source for the aforementioned rain chances. Cloud cover will increase in earnest by Friday afternoon, and the brief reprieve will become a quickly eroding memory. About an average for late August chance of afternoon showers and storms is expected on Friday as the deeper moisture returns. High temperatures will be impacted by the increased moisture as well. Instead of the seemingly endless mid to upper 90s that we've experienced this summer, highs will fall off to the lower 90s. This is essentially normal for late August, however, just because the highs decrease doesn't mean it will feel any cooler. The increase in low-level moisture will also increase the heat index (the reverse effect of the preceding days). So, heat index values will be over 100 once again, and it feel all nasty and junk yet again. This portion of the forecast is subject to drastic changes depending on what transpires in the Gulf. Convection will drop off on Friday night, but given the developing pattern some nocturnal shower and/or thunderstorm activity can't be ruled out. Low temperatures will be back into the mid 70s range. That's more like what we've seen most of the summer. I believe most of the High School Football Jamborees will be dry, however.
There is the potential for a rain event this weekend. Details still sketchy at this point, but it all hinges on the developments in the Gulf. Any low that forms will likely drift W or WNW towards the coasts of SE Texas and SW Louisiana over the weekend. This will certainly keep us in the moist axis, therefore, I am raising rain chances into the likely category for both Saturday and Sunday. Further revisions to the weekend forecast are expected. I wouldn't go and cancel any of your weekend plans just yet. It won't be all day rain event unless this becomes something tropical, but rain is a good bet off and on both Saturday and Sunday with all the moisture pooling over the area. Several inches of rain will be possible, and rain will be heavy at times. It is very dry across the area, and rain will be very welcome around here. This will be the type situation that could create some localized urban and small stream flooding in areas that receive heavier rainfall. A further refinement of rainfall projections will be forthcoming in future forecasts. I will broadbrush things for now, as I don't want to hype up some potential tropical development. The developing pressure gradient between the re-building high to our NE and the potential Gulf low will lead to some gusty winds across the area, and especially over the coastal waters. Winds should be offshore initially depending on the exact location where cyclogenesis may occur, then as the low drifts Westward towards our area winds will shift to an onshore component. Winds in the 20-30 mph range are possible with higher gusts in the stronger storms. The best chances for convection as per usual will be during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating, but they certainly not be limited to those hours in this situation. Morning and nocturnal convection will be possible both Saturday and Sunday with the plume of moisture infiltrating the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be affected by the enhanced rain chances. Highs may not crack the 90 degree mark, and morning lows will struggle to make it below 75 at all.
The end of the forecast period will offer a transition back to a standard summer regime next week. Rain chances may remain above normal for one more day on Monday as the deep moisture plume will only slowly be displaced. High pressure off to our NE will be re-building over the area at this time, and this will take more of an effect on our weather by Tuesday as we close out August. The atmosphere will dry out in earnest from Monday into Tuesday such that rain chances drop off dramatically from Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures in the 90s will return to the forecast, and mid 90s seem plausible by Tuesday once again. Dry air in the mid and upper levels will suppress shower and thunderstorm activity by the end of the forecast period. The presence of low-level moisture will put us back in the persistent pattern we've dealt with most of the summer, therefore, heat indices will thread the needle with respect to the danger category of 105 once again. An isolated storm or two is possible on Tuesday, but after Monday rainfall may be hard to come by once again as we head into September. A brief gander into the extended, shows the drier pattern existing for the first few days of September. This should take us into Labor Day weekend. Dry and hot weather is suggested by the long range models for Labor Day weekend, barring any tropical systems. This will be good news for the first full weekend of football, and of course, for any holiday plans you may have. More on that in the coming days. The good news is that we're on the downward spiral of our long, seemingly endless summer pattern as September nears. The bad news is there is no real sign of a true cold front yet. The first real cold front can't be too far away once we get into September right? The average first true cold front occurs around September 20 across SW Louisiana. So, hopefully it is just a few weeks away now! If you're like me then it can't cool off fast enough!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 71/97 70/95 71/92 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 70/97 70/96 71/92 0 0 0 0 0 30
BPT 72/97 71/96 71/94 0 0 0 0 0 30
AEX 68/98 66/96 69/95 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 68/98 67/96 69/95 0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA 73/95 71/95 72/91 0 0 0 0 0 30
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny. High 97. NE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 70. Calm wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 95. East wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 71. Light East wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 8/25/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 4
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
H.I.: 91
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 98
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 95
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
Low: 71
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
8-26-10
18 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Low: 70
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 10
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 71
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V: 10- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 74
High: 89
Rain: 60%
Wind: ENE 10-20
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
High: 87
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-25
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 8- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropics...
Danielle is moving WNW at a fast pace tonight, and a quick motion should continue. Expect Danielle to begin to gain latitude Wednesday with a more NW turn, and the gradual Northward trend will continue from there. The official forecast right now brings the cyclone to the East of Bermuda by Sunday night as a hurricane. This storm will likely create some gusty winds, high seas, and occasional squalls over Bermuda this weekend with the direct impacts bypassing the island to the East. The cyclone may slow down over the weekend, as it briefly gets trapped between synoptic scale features. There will be an advancing trough over the Eastern U.S. that will be moving into the Atlantic this weekend, and the ridge to the East of the storm will begin to strengthen further. This creates some uncertainties with the future track beyond this point. Some forecast models suggest a threat to the East Coast or New England states late next week. The forecast track discrepancies beyond 5 days are larger than usual given the uncertainty of the synoptic scale features.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Tuesday, August 24, 2010
...Danielle's Temporary Weakening Trend Ceases...Once Again a Hurricane...No Imminent Threat to Land...
Latitude: 18.2 N
Longitude: 49.8 W
This position is about 795 miles E of the Leeward Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph w/ higher gusts. This makes Danielle a Category 1 hurricane. Little change in strength is expected on Wednesday, however, conditions are expected to become more conducive for further strengthening on Thursday. Danielle will have the potential to become a major hurricane later this week as it moves into the Central Atlantic. Hurricane force winds extend out to 30 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend out to 140 miles from the center.
Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 18 mph. Danielle is expected to undergo a decrease in forward speed, and make a gradual turn to the NW over the next couple of days.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.23" or 990 mb.
Also, Invest 96L continues to be monitored for development. This system emerged off the West coast of Africa a couple of days ago, and has been rather well organized. The organization changed little over the last 24 hours, but it remains fairly organized. 96L is moving over a continually favorable environment, and it won't take much strengthening at this point for this to become our next classified tropical cyclone. There is a high likelihood (90%) that this will occur within the next day or two. It is likely to become Tropical Depression 7, and eventually Tropical Storm Earl within the next couple of days. It continues to move off to the WNW around 15 mph. Since it is not yet a classified system, it is not prudent to wax eloquent on the future track of this system at this point. The early speculation is that it will follow closely in Danielle's footsteps, and remain over the open waters of the Atlantic. It is possible that while the environment near the Cape Verde Islands is favorable for development, that Invest 96L will have a hard time maintaining itself down the road as it runs into some shear left behind by Danielle. Often times, the larger storms create an environment that persist for a while in its wake.
Next, an area of showers and thunderstorms persists across the Central Gulf of Mexico along a weak, rare late summer frontal boundary. This area of convection currently remains disorganized, and there is only a minimal chance of any tropical development over the next couple of days. A surface low may form in a day or two, and this would increase the prospects of tropical development in this region. A slow West or SW drift is expected over the next couple of days, and any development of this system will be very slow.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Thursday.
This date in History...August 24, 2005...Tropical Storm Katrina forms in the Bahamas. Katrina strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane before crossing South Florida on August 25. Of course, we all know what Katrina went on to become in the days ahead..a very powerful, dangerous, and deadly category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I will have more on that in the days ahead.
...Marine Forecast...
Wednesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:15a.m. 10:11p.m.
High: 4:40a.m. 3:32a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.58'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Low: 76
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 62-1930
High: 98
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1924
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.61"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 36.85"
Record: 2.85"- 1985
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tonight August 24
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment