SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Is this a preview of fall? Is this a sign of an early fall? These answers will come in due time, but either way it's nice to have a brief reprieve from the otherwise Absolutely Awful August heat and humidity. This weather will likely not serve up any complaints, that's for sure. The question is how long will it stick around, because you know summer isn't over by any means. This pleasantly hot day featured Mostly Sunny skies and morning low temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the forecast area, while afternoon highs easily reached the 90s, with most locations in the low to mid 90s. However, with the bonus of the lower humidity the apparent temperature was essentially the same as the actual temperature. The nice conditions will be more noticeable for the overnight hours and through mid-morning Friday. Tonight should be the coolest night around these parts since late May. Low temperatures should average the upper 60s tonight, but the coolest locales could see readings as cool as 63 or 64. Of course, closer to the coast it'll remain in the lower to middle 70s, but even there it'll feel much better given the dryness of the air.
I could use the word fantastic for this Friday, at least when you compare it to the typical SW Louisiana late August standards. The nice dry air will remain in place as a NE flow at the surface continues to usher in the fresh air. Temperatures will warm up rather quickly, and with Mostly Sunny skies highs will easily surpass the 90 degree mark once again. The late August sun will warm temperatures into the low to mid 90s. These readings are at or just above the normal for late August. Yes, it'll still be hot, but take a moment to enjoy this anomalous breath of fresh air. Controlling high pressure at the surface and aloft will quell any shower and thunderstorm activity. The dry air in place will once again result in the apparent temperature (heat index) being the same as or very close to the actual temperature. A little very humidity will creep back into the forecast beginning Friday night as a transition back to a muggy regime begins, but even still it should be very pleasant for late August through early Saturday. Clear skies and no mention of rain is expected for all of the High School Football Jamborees Friday night. Overnight lows under the aforementioned clear skies, and very light or nearly calm winds should be very close to the 70 degree mark on average.
The weekend will not turn out to be as nice as the end of this work week has been. However, don't fret too much. It seems as though the earlier projections for a rather wet weekend will not come to fruition. That being said, rain chances will still need to be introduced to the forecast once again. This will occur on Saturday as moisture returns off the Gulf in advance of what will essentially be a warm front. This is the same front that came through earlier this week, and has provided this breath of fresh air. It won't be a warm front in the classic sense like we get in the winter time, but it will be by definition. The frontal zone has been stationary for a few days now, and will begin to retreat Northward as an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle. This will bring back the humidity in earnest with a long fetch onshore flow developing. This onshore flow will result in the return of rich, tropical air in the lower levels. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday. It will basically turn out to be a typical summer day in SW Louisiana with about an average chance of convection during the peak heating hours. Expect Saturday highs to reach normal levels in the lower 90s once again. Sunday will still be a day that features rain chances in the likely category as the deep tropical air mass continues to work its way into the region, and the elongated trough lifts Northward as well. This synoptic feature along with the effects of daytime heating will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Rain will be heavy at times, and areas that receive a direct hit could receive 1-2" of rain, but overall amounts should be an inch or less. We'll take any rain we can get. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are in the offing, and it'll certainly be back to feeling like late August. Morning lows should be back into the mid 70s, while afternoon highs will top out around 90 or so.
Next week's weather scenario looks to be one that will resemble a late August/early September pattern. Rain chances will be at or just above average Monday-Wednesday. Daily fluctuations are expected as the deep tropical air mass continues to pump in over the area in the wake of the lifting elongated trough. Daytime heating will also organize the usual sea breeze, and this will in turn help storm initiate storms especially after noon. The presence of the inverted trough will help keep rain chances at or just above normal for the end of August, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The same regime controls the area's weather for Tuesday and Wednesday with a 30-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies expected. By mid-week, high pressure off to our NE will begin building Westward, and other minor disturbances rounding the periphery of the ridge may work their work into our area, to result in a slight increase in rain chances yet again for the first of September. All in all though, this forecast won't stray away from the typical pattern for this time of year. Expect seasonal temperatures each day as well with lows in the mid 70s and highs in the mid 90s as a general rule, surely there will be some upper 90s in the area. Rounding out the forecast period on Thursday, the atmosphere begins to dry out again as the aforementioned high pressure to our NE becomes the dominant weather feature. This will help to dismantle the deep, tropical air mass from the first half of the week. This will result in more sunshine with generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies expected. As usual, there will be a correlation between the building ridge and the temperatures. High temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 90s, and morning lows will continue their trend of mid to upper 70s. Does this sound like deja vu from just a few days ago or what? The dry pattern should carry us into Labor Day weekend, and the hot September sun will be beating down. The early projections call for limited rain chances for the holiday weekend with ridging persisting across much of the Gulf Coastal Plain. No sign of a true cold front yet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 67/93 70/93 74/90 0 0 0 30 30 60
LFT 67/93 69/93 73/90 0 0 0 30 30 60
BPT 69/94 71/93 74/91 0 0 0 30 30 60
AEX 64/95 65/94 69/92 0 0 0 20 20 40
POE 64/95 65/94 69/92 0 0 0 20 20 40
ARA 68/93 70/92 73/89 0 0 0 30 30 60
Tonight...Clear and Pleasant. Low 67. Calm wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny. High 93. NE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 70. Light East wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely especially in the afternoon. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday 8/27/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Refreshing to Say the Least
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
H.I.: 88
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 93
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 89
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 67
High: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 70
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Low: 74
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-1-10
2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav
Low: 76
High: 92
Rain: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
9-2-10
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
The tropics remain very active. There are 2 named storms on this Thursday night, and we are on the verge of having a third one. The slow start to the season is quickly becoming a fading memory. We are also on the verge on having the season's first major hurricane, in Danielle.
First, let's start with Danielle. Danielle continues its steady state strengthening trend, and is on the verge of becoming the season's first major hurricane of category 3 or higher status. Danielle now has a clearly visible eye, although it appears to be more ragged tonight likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle. This is typically a sign of strengthening, and there is no reason to believe Danielle won't continue strengthening for the next day or two. The environment ahead of Danielle certainly supports the idea of the cyclone becoming a major hurricane Friday. Danielle will remain over the open waters of the Central Atlantic and as a trough approaches from the West, Danielle will continue to gain latitude as it takes on a more Northerly component of motion. This will bring the cyclone to the East of Bermuda this weekend. The prognosis of Bermuda receiving the fringe effects of Danielle continue to hold firm. There is absolutely no change in the forecast philosophy from 24 hours ago. Danielle will remain in an area of warm SSTs into the weekend, and this will support the intensification into a major hurricane.
By late in the weekend, Danielle will start to turn to the right (NE) and accelerate as it feels the influence of the approaching Eastern U.S. trough. This will also cause Danielle to embark on a weakening trend, and start it on its way to a slow death over the colder waters of the North Atlantic early next week. Danielle will transition from the season's first major hurricane over the weekend to an extratropical entity by the end of the forecast period. There is some uncertainty as to how much Danielle will strengthen before it starts to decay, but it is certainly possible that Danielle could reach category 4 status briefly. Category 3 intensity is shown on the official forecast at this time, however, in this case, the strength of the storm itself is irrelevant because of its minimal impact on any landmasses. Swells and larger waves will move to the W towards the Eastern Seaboard, and begin affecting the coastline sometime Friday. This will be the extent of the effects of Danielle on the continental United States. Some squally weather, and increased winds and seas will affect Bermuda over the weekend, but the tiny island nation can certainly exhale it would appear. For those plotting along at home, the latest official forecast track follows.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, August 26, 2010
...Danielle on the Cusp of Becoming Season's First Major Storm...Fish Beware...
Latitude: 25.8 N
Longitude: 57.6 W
This places the clearly visible eye of Hurricane Danielle 625 miles SE of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 mph w/ higher gusts- Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Further strengthening is expected Friday, and Danielle will more than likely become the season's first major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 205 miles from the eye of the hurricane.
Movement: NW or 315 degrees @ 12mph. Danielle's forward speed has slowed a bit in the last 24 hours, and it should maintain this speed over the next few days. Danielle will make a gradual turn to the NNW and North through the weekend. On this track, Danielle will safely bypass Bermuda to the East.
Minimum Central Pressure: 28.50" or 965 mb.
"My Name is Earl"...Tropical Storm Earl continues to churn in the far Eastern Atlantic in an area that was recently visited by Danielle. Earl has had a hard time holding together today, and in fact it lost most of its deep convection Thursday afternoon. However, Earl appears to finally be getting better organized, and could be its way to becoming our next strengthening tropical entity. The prospects for strengthening are good, because Earl will be moving into very favorable environs through the weekend. Warm water awaits Earl as he moves further West, and the environment is one that is essentially null and void of wind shear. Earl seems poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification, and could very well be a hurricane over the weekend. It is currently still a minimal tropical storm, but I suspect that the next time I discuss Earl we might be talking about a far more severe entity.
Earl has a large circulation, but the storm as a whole is still a bit out of sorts as it begins its maturation process. Earl will likely be a very large cyclone in a few days. As far as the future track of Earl is concerned, the prognosis is very good for the United States, and most of the Caribbean landmasses as well. Earl is moving due West at this time as it continues to be steered around the southern flank of a large Saharan Subtropical ridge. This controlling ridge will hold firm for several more days, and keep Earl on a Westerly heading. As Earl moves further West, it will move away from the influences of the high to its North, and therefore Earl is expected to make a turn to the WNW or NW early next week when it feels a weakness in the ridge. The official forecast track keeps Earl away from all landmasses, moving just North of the Lesser Antilles late Sunday into Monday. In about 5 days at the end of the forecast period, Earl is expected to be a major hurricane and should be somewhere between Jamaica and Bermuda. All of the model guidance offers a very good consensus and suggests that Earl will continue to move further to the NW and eventually North later next week, and follow in the footsteps of Danielle and become a fish storm. However, the forecast track could ultimately lead to Earl becoming a more significant threat to Bermuda sometime next week. The chances of direct impact in the U.S. seems very slim at this point. The latest NHC info for Earl follows as well.
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, August 26, 2010
...Earl Starting to Get Better Organized...Should Become a Hurricane This Weekend...
Latitude: 15.5 N
Longitude: 40.2 W
This is 1,525 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Earl should become the season's third hurricane this weekend. Tropical storm force winds currently extend out to 85 miles from the center.
Movement: West or 280 degrees @ 17 mph. Earl will continue racing off to the West for the next few days, before making a gradual turn to the WNW or NW early next week.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.62" or 1003 mb.
Finally, yet another vigorous tropical wave has emerged off the West Coast of Africa. This wave came off of Africa Wednesday, and is currently located about 350 miles SE of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. This area of showers and storms has become better organized Thursday night, and conditions are conducive for further development. It won't take much at this time for this system to become the season's 8th tropical system. There is a high chance of this happening within the next 24 hours. It will continue moving Westward around 15-20 mph. It is being steered by the same anti-cyclone that has Earl racing off to the West at this time. I fully expect this system to become Fiona over the weekend. It is far too early to speculate where this system will ultimately wind up, however, the early model consensus suggests that it will follow closely in the path of its predecessors. The current of the flow left behind by Danielle and Earl may ultimately dictate the path of the future Fiona.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
In closing out the tropical section today, here's some hurricane history for you briefly...On this date 18 years ago, August 26, 1992..Category 3 storm Hurricane Andrew slammed into the Louisiana coast 2 days after making landfall near Homestead, Florida as only the third landfalling category 5 hurricane in recorded history. Andrew made landfall just SW of Morgan City with 115 mph winds. Andrew began weakening just before landfall, as he had 140 mph just about 24 hours before he made his landfall in South Central Louisiana. The damage from Andrew was far greater over South Florida than it was here in Louisiana, but of course it still caused problems in the Bayou State. In all, Andrew caused $26.5 billion damage combined from Florida and Louisiana. At the time, Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:06a.m. 11:05p.m.
High: 4:26a.m. 5:16p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Low: 73
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 61-1917
High: 92
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1902
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.95"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 37.19"
Record: 2.70"- 1948
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:41p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Full Moon- Thursday September 23
Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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