Today was Groundhog Day. The little furry prognosticator saw his shadow, which typically makes 6 more weeks of winter. However, make of it what you will...it was cloudy and there was snow around this morning. The shadow that Phil casted was likely as a result of all the camera lights et. al. More often than not, Phil sees his shadow, so put little stock into this forecast. That's why here closer to home, we have a nutria from New Iberia...that is one, Mr. Pierre C. Shadeaux! Pierre didn't see his shadow thanks to all the clouds and fog this morning. Therefore, that means we should have an early spring here. I think we all know that the whole 6 more weeks of winter idea hardly ever comes to fruition around these parts, and I think I'm going to have to side with Pierre on this one...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today was not a bad day with some intervals of sunshine late this morning through early afternoon. This was after some morning fog and intermittent drizzle. Clouds returned mid-late afternoon in advance of the mid-week storm as the title suggests. Temperatures today were seasonal with highs reaching the low to mid 60s with a little more sunshine than originally expected...no complaints there I'm sure. Sunshine is going to be nowhere to be found the next couple of days. Tonight's weather will be benign with just overcast conditions expected in advance of the strong system. Cloud cover will negate full cooling potential, but seasonal temperatures are expected with minimums in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Fog should not be as much of an issue tonight. You can already see our next weather maker on the water vapor imagery tonight.
Wednesday will certainly start dry with just cool and overcast conditions. A strong upper level impulse embedded in the active Subtropical Jet Stream will be moving around the base of a Western trough, and be approaching the area Wednesday. Isentropic lift (overrunning) will increase as the system comes into West Texas and added moisture from the STJ. The energetic STJ and the approaching short wave will result in the same scenario we have seen so many times already this season...Western Gulf cyclogenesis. This will occur late in the day Wednesday. Rain is ongoing tonight across South Texas stretching up towards San Antonio and over to Corpus Christi. This area of rain will intensify and expand overnight and on Wednesday morning as the system approaches from the SW. Rain should be encroaching on Houston before noon, and head our way for the afternoon hours. Moisture levels will gradually increase throughout the day, and rain should begin to move into the forecast area by late afternoon Wednesday. Rain chances will increase from nearly nothing in the morning, to the likely category by the evening hours. A few spotty showers could occur as early as lunch time, but more widespread showers should begin around afternoon drive time. It will remain cool with highs in the mid 50s at best. The weather worsens Wednesday night as the system conglomerates over the Western Gulf, and a warm front trails from the surface low and lifts slowly NE through the night. Instability increases as well on Wednesday night as a strong low-level Jet moves over the area in response to the advancing system. Thus, some elevated convection will be possible. Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night and Thursday. Severe weather is not expected due to the progged track of the surface low. It will move from off the Lower Texas Coast slowly NE towards SE Louisiana. It will stay just offshore of SW Louisiana, thus limiting any severe threat to the coastal waters. The heavy rain threat will not be limited by any means, however. This is the type of system that will produce significant rainfall amounts, and this is not exactly good news. Model data suggests widespread amounts of 2-4" across the area from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals will be tempered from North to South across the area. Lesser amounts will occur from Toledo Bend to Marksville with amounts closer to 2" in this region, while 3-4" amounts seem likely along the I-10 corridor from Beaumont to Lake Charles to Lafayette. Isolated amounts over 4" are possible especially near the coast, and in Acadiana. This corresponds with the areas that will be closest to the track of the surface low. Localized flooding of urban areas and poor drainage areas is likely from Wednesday night through Thursday. Rain will become widespread by sunset Wednesday evening, and while it will be light initially, it will gradually get heavier overnight. It should rain all night Wednesday night, and throughout the day Thursday as the low slowly works up the coast. It will take a while for this system to get out of here, and it may seem like we'll need to call Noah before the day is over on Thursday. Rain will be heaviest from around midnight Thursday until about noon Thursday, before a slow improvement is noted. It will likely rain for at least 24 hours straight. Don't be surprised to here a few rumbles of thunder late Wednesday night and/or Thursday due to the increased instability that will be present. Any deviation of the track of the surface low further to the North, would increase prospects of severe weather, but confidence is high enough at this point that this will not occur, and that this forecast is strictly a rain forecast. Rain chances will be maxed out for Wednesday night and Thursday period. On top of all the rain, it will be cool & miserable as well. Temperatures will drop back into the mid to upper 40s on Wednesday night, and only warm up to near 50 at most on Thursday. Basically, this will be like a Cajun "Nor'Easter". Winds will increase in earnest by Wednesday night as the low strengthens and approaches. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the forecast area, and make for rough conditions in the offshore waters. NE winds over 20 mph at times will be possible by Thursday. This whole mess finally begins to pull away by late Thursday, and at that time rain chances will be tapered downward finally.
Rain chances will be carried over into Friday morning as I still expect sufficient wrap-around moisture to be in place in the wake of the low. Drier air will only slowly filter into the region, and at the mid and upper levels thus keeping overrunning and a temperature inversion going for Friday. This will keep clouds and rain in the forecast with cool conditions on Thursday night. Minimums should be around normal in the lower 40s. There really isn't a cold front associated with this system, but some cooler air will filter into the region in the wake of the system on Friday in response to a low-level NW flow. Rain chances should finally completely be taken out of the forecast by Friday afternoon as drier air takes over in all levels of the atmosphere, and boundary layer moisture will decrease significantly at that time. The clouds will hang tough, however, and should be around for the balance of the day. Temperatures will struggle as a result of this, and the weak CAA over the area, thus highs should struggle to make 50 once again. It will certainly be another raw February Day. Finally, by Friday night skies should clear, but not entirely most likely as I mentioned last night. The STJ will remain very active with lots of high cirrus clouds streaming from SW to NE over the Gulf and into our area. Skies should clear out enough that temperatures will drop off quite nicely as we head into Saturday morning. Upper 30s and lower 40s are expected area wide on Saturday, however, it should remain above freezing since the air behind this system isn't terribly cold. The high clouds will filter the sun from time to time on Saturday, but it should be a dry day and not half bad anyway compared to what we will endure the next couple of days. There may be times when skies are Mostly Sunny, but with an active Jet Stream I believe it won't be a clear weekend. I will re-evaluate that tomorrow. Saturday highs should be in the lower 50s, about 10 degrees below normal for early February. Chilly conditions continue for Saturday night with quiet weather on tap as high pressure will be in control. Lows heading into Super Bowl Sunday morning should be in the mid 30s once again. Sunday should be very similar to Saturday, except there may be more clouds by the afternoon hours with more STJ energy streaming across. It should be nice for the game if you have any outdoor plans to BBQ or whatever the case may be. The weather will be quiet then, but hopefully we as fans won't be. Geaux Saints! It may be prime for some Colt Gumbo or something like that since it will still be quite cool with highs topping out in the low to mid 50s. The period of below normal maximums will continue.
At the end of the forecast period for Monday and Tuesday of next week as well as for post-Super Bowl celebrations the weather will be changing once again. The pattern repeats itself with the very active Subtropical Jet continuing to be the dominant weather feature for the NW Gulf Coast. Clouds will lower and thicken Sunday night into Monday, and rain chances will return during the day on Monday as yet another perturbation in the flow rounds the base of a deeper Western trough, and moves towards our area. At this time, this disturbance doesn't look as robust as the one we will deal with over the next 36 hours, but it is a bit early in the game to know for sure. Rain chances will jump back into the likely category for Tuesday as the Gulf low moves through the SW Louisiana coastal waters. Models suggest this low will track further South in the Gulf, meaning that while widespread will be expected, it may remain on the light side. Nevertheless, overrunning will once again be present, but I expect there to be one significant difference. That is, the presence of a strong front with Arctic origins to move in following this system on Tuesday. No severe weather is expected, but the additional forcing and lifting could produce some thunderstorms. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will remain on the cool side with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s. The strong cold front will usher in a much colder air mass by the middle of next week, and we will likely see a freeze in the 10th-11th period, but just how cold it will be remains to be seen. The active weather pattern will continue through Mardi Gras. Hopefully, the rain won't hamper any Saints celebrations or Mardi Gras festivities.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 43/55 45/48 42/48 0 70 100 100 60 30
LFT 42/54 44/48 41/49 0 60 100 100 60 30
BPT 44/55 46/48 43/50 0 70 100 100 60 30
AEX 40/52 42/45 39/46 0 40 100 100 60 30
POE 41/52 42/46 40/46 0 50 100 100 60 30
ARA 44/54 47/51 44/49 0 60 100 100 60 30
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy. Low 43. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Cloudy with rain developing in the morning, and becoming likely in the afternoon. High 55. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.
Wednesday Night...Rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Windy. Rainfall heavy at times. Low 45. NE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.
Thursday...Windy w/ widespread rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Rainfall heavy at times. Localized flooding possible. Cold. High 48. NNE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%. Total rainfall amounts 2-4".
Thursday Night...Cloudy with rain likely in the evening, tapering off overnight. Low 42. North wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday...Cloudy and Cold with a 30% chance of rain. High 48. North wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 2/3/10 Daily Planner
7a.m.
Weather: Cloudy, Cool
Temp: 43
Chance of Rain: 10%
Wind: N 8
Noon
Weather: Cloudy, Scattered Rain
Temp: 50
Chance of Rain: 40%
Wind: NE 12
5p.m.
Weather: Light Rain
Temp: 52
Chance of Rain: 70%
Wind: NE 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Wednesday
2-3-10
Low: 43
High: 55
Precip: 70%
Wind: NE 10-15
Thursday
2-4-10
Low: 45
High: 48
Precip: 100%
Wind: NNE 20-25
W.C.: 30s
Friday
2-5-10
Low: 42
High: 48
Precip: 30%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 35-40
Saturday
2-6-10
Low: 39
High: 53
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
Sunday
2-7-10
Super Bowl
Low: 37
High: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
2-8-10
Low: 42
High: 55
Precip: 40%
Wind: E 10
Tuesday
2-9-10
Low: 45
High: 48
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
...Marine Forecast...
*Small Craft Advisory.*
Tonight...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night...East winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 6 feet after midnight. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday...East winds 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.
Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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