Who Dat! Who Dat! Geaux Saints! Complete this dream season by beating the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday in Miami!
I will have a special treat for y'all on Tuesday morning...some pics from a friend in Arkansas from last week's winter storm.
Also, I am adding another new feature tonight..."The Daily Planner". It'll give specific weather, temperatures, and winds at the most significant times of the day. This will hopefully help you plan your day better. If you would like to see more added to this, or any other feature added to the blog please feel free to let me know. "The Daily Planner" will be located between the zone forecast & the 7 day forecast.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I can think of 2 songs to describe the weather today as we start this "hyped-up" work week..."Rainy Days and Mondays" by the Carpenters and "American Pie" by Don McLean, specifically the line that says...February made me shiver...
I can't wait for Sunday when our Saints battle the Colts, let's think about that this week to cheer us up, because the weather sure won't be cheerful until the weekend...
Let's get into some specifics...The persistent El Nino of the winter of 2009-10 continues. The latest customer in the never ending series of El Nino systems affected the area today, and resulted in February getting off to a wet start across the forecast area. A weak disturbance embedded in the Subtropical Jet Stream, and weak Gulf low moved up the coast today, and moisture levels increased overnight spreading moisture inland across the entire forecast area. The end result was a steady, nagging light rain and/or drizzle for most of the morning. A few sleet pellets fell at the onset of the precip due to relatively cold temperatures at the surface, and wet bulbing processes early on. The atmospheric column quickly moistened up changing all precip to rain for the duration of the event. Rainfall amounts were very light with rainfall totals generally 1/2" or less. Today's rainfall was the appetizer for this week. Temperatures were well below normal to start February 2010. Low temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 30s, while afternoon highs didn't make it to 50. The nagging rain and stiff wind made it feel very raw. The nemesis disturbance is gone now, and it will a quiet and dry night. Clouds will hang tough as the Subtropical Jet remains in place. The residual moisture in place and lighter surface winds may lead to the development of some fog, which could get quite dense late. No measurable precipitation is expected for the overnight hours, however, with the residual moisture in place some intermittent drizzle is possible. The overcast conditions will preclude much of a temperature drop overnight, but it will be chilly with temperatures near the seasonal averages from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Tuesday will likely turn out to be the best day of this work week as we'll be in between systems. Clouds will hang tough at least through the morning as the STJ continues streaming high clouds over the region. Any fog should dissipate by mid-morning, however, the fog could be a problem for the morning commute as it will likely become dense along and south of I-10 after midnight. The fog and intermittent drizzle will come to a end by mid-morning. For the anticipated fog, the National Weather Service has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the portion of the forecast area along and south of I-10 until 10a.m. Tuesday. Some sunshine may occur in the afternoon as the clouds thin a bit, but it certainly won't be clear. The seasonably cold start will give way to a seasonal afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 across the area. The temporary quiet weather will continue for Tuesday night with another Mostly Cloudy and seasonably cool night. Fog should not be as much of a factor, but there could certainly be some. It looks like a foggy start to Groundhog Day, and it is doubtful that Pecan Island Pierre will see anything resembling a shadow. As for Phil in Pennsylvania, he may not see his shadow either as it should be cloudy with a chance of snow. Of course, shadow or no shadow, I don't put much stock into the little critter's forecast. It's just a fun thing to do on "Candlemas"...which is the halfway point of the astronomical winter season. Meteorological winter is in the home stretch now as we enter February. Meteorological spring begins March 1.
The weather goes downhill once again on Wednesday as the main course rolls in. The same scenario we've experienced so many times this season will rear its ugly head again. A robust short wave (disturbance) embedded in the predominantly zonal flow. The STJ energy will interact and lead to Western Gulf cyclogenesis during the day Wednesday. The brief drying at the surface will gradually end. The mid and upper levels will moisten up through the day as boundary layer moisture increases in advance of the strong system. The day should start dry, with rain overtaking the forecast area by mid-late afternoon. It is certainly possible that some scattered light showers or sprinkles will occur in the morning, but at this time the widespread rain should wait until after lunch. The advancing low will produce classic "overrunning" conditions across the area. Widespread rain will occur, and it will gradually get heavier overnight Wednesday as the low continues lifting NE towards the SE Texas/SW Louisiana coastline. As usual, the ultimate track of the low will dictate how much rain the area will receive, but certainly all of us will receive significant rainfall with this next customer. Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night through Thursday as instability values increase, and the isentropic ascent continues to strengthen in response to the low. Rain chances will nearly max out on Wednesday night, and be maxed out on Thursday. This will be a very strong system, and thankfully at this point the low should track just to our SE and remain just offshore keeping the area in the cool sector. Any northward deviation of the surface low would place portions of the forecast area in the warm sector, thus resulting in a severe weather threat. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely, though certainly some thunderstorms are likely. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat with this system, and rainfall amounts will likely exceed an inch across the entire area with the heaviest amounts near the coast. At present it looks like average rainfall amounts will be between 2-3" in the Lake Charles area, and possibly as high as 5" near the coast. The low and associated short wave will only slowly move Eastward on Thursday, so expect the rain to continue throughout the day. The worst of the weather should occur from overnight Wednesday through early afternoon on Thursday before slow improvement occurs. Some flooding will be possible with the expectant heavy rainfall, with localized urban and small stream flooding the main flood threats. A stiffening pressure gradient in response to the intensifying low over the Gulf will result in strong winds across the area as well. Winds will gust over 25 mph at times from the NE around the circulation of the low. Adding insult to injury, will be the chilly temperatures. There won't be much of a diurnal range on Wednesday or Thursday with the clouds, rain, and wind. Lows will be in the 40s which is seasonable, however, highs will remain will below normal struggling to reach the 50s each day. Conditions should begin improving Thursday Night, but rain chances will still be in the forecast as wrap-around moisture keeps the overrunning going as the mid and upper levels remain moist.
As we head into Super Bowl Weekend, proudly featuring our Saints, the weather will be much better, but maybe not quite "super". The improvement takes full effect on Friday, though I will retain rain chances for Friday morning as the wrap-around moisture hangs in for a time. Clouds will likely hang tough much of the day as a temperature inversion similar to that we experienced this past weekend remains in place. This will likely keep a low level stratus deck over the area to shut out the sun for one more day. The chill of early February will continue with lows around 40 once again, and highs struggling to reach 50 once again. Finally, a welcomed area of high pressure will build in Friday night allowing skies to clear as dry air filters into all levels of the atmosphere. As skies clear, temperatures will be quite cold heading into Saturday Morning, however, certainly not anywhere near record levels. The coldest locations of the forecast area may flirt with freezing on Saturday Morning, but average lows for Saturday should be in the mid to upper 30s. It is possible that we could completely clear out on Saturday, but with a very active Subtropical Jet Stream this doesn't seem likely. High clouds will likely continue streaming over the area, shielding the sun from time to time. While clear skies can't be guaranteed for the weekend, it should be dry.
Benign weather will continue for the Saturday Night and Sunday period with more high cloudiness from time to time. Seasonably cool temperatures will continue for Super Bowl Sunday with maximums possibly a tad warmer in the mid to upper 50s, depending on how much cloud cover is prevalent. This, after morning lows in the upper 30s once again. Quiet weather is expected for the big game on Sunday, and this will not be an ordinary Super Bowl Sunday in the state of Louisiana. The weather will cooperate for any plans you may have for the Super Bowl. Who Dat! Changes will occur once again as we get into Monday, depending on the outcome of the game not many people will notice! A much weaker embedded short wave will move through on Monday. It will be enough to increase moisture once again, and bring back some rain chances. However, we'll focus in on this system after the mid-week system is gone. The mid-week system will certainly be the highlight (lowlight) of the week as far as the weather is concerned. Monday's temperatures will continue to be on the cool side with highs struggling to get to the 50s once again with the added clouds and showers. At this time, the rain on Monday should be light, and shouldn't be enough to put a damper on any Saints celebrations.
Beyond the forecast period, the active El Nino weather pattern and unseasonably cool temperatures will continue through Valentine's Day and Mardi Gras. Timing of any systems to follow is uncertain, but the idea is that a rain maker will move in every 2-3 days is certainly on the table. I still believe winter is not quite over yet, meaning I believe we'll see another freeze or two before we transition to Spring.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 40/58 43/53 45/51 10 10 10 60 90 100
LFT 40/57 42/54 44/50 10 10 10 50 80 100
BPT 42/60 44/55 46/52 10 10 10 60 90 100
AEX 36/56 39/51 41/47 10 10 10 50 70 90
POE 37/57 39/51 41/48 10 10 10 50 70 90
ARA 41/59 44/54 45/53 10 10 10 50 80 100
*Dense Fog Advisory in effect Tuesday Morning from 3a.m. to 10a.m. along and south of I-10.*
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Dense Fog after midnight. Intermittent Drizzle. Low 40. NE 5-10 mph wind.
Tuesday...Areas of Dense Fog and Intermittent Drizzle in the morning. Fog dissipating by mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 58. North wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 43. Light North wind.
Wednesday...Cloudy and Cool with rain becoming likely in the afternoon. Scattered morning showers. Rain heavy at times late. High 53. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday Night...Rain and a few thunderstorms likely. Windy. Rain heavy at times. Low 45. NE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.
Thursday...Windy with rain and thunderstorms likely. 2-3" of rain possible. High 51. NE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.
Tuesday 2/2/10 Daily Planner
7a.m.-
Weather: Fog & Drizzle, Cool
Temp: 40
Wind: NE 6
Noon-
Weather: P/C-M/C
Temp: 55
Wind: N 8
5p.m.-
Weather: : P/C
Temp: 56
Wind: N 7
Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
Tuesday
2-2-10
Groundhog Day
Low: 40
High: 58
Precip: 10%
Wind: N 5-10
Wednesday
2-3-10
Low: 43
High: 53
Precip: 60%
Wind: NE 10-15
Thursday
2-4-10
Low: 45
High: 51
Precip: 100%
Wind: NE 20-25
Friday
2-5-10
Low: 40
High: 50
Precip: 30% AM
Wind: N 10-15
Saturday
2-6-10
Low: 36
High: 53
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Sunday
2-7-10
Super Bowl Sunday
Low: 37
High: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 10
Monday
2-8-10
Low: 42
High: 52
Precip: 40%
Wind: NE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Dense Fog Advisory.*
Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Areas of dense fog. Intermittent drizzle.
Tuesday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Intermittent drizzle in the morning.
Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Wednesday Night...East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:05a.m. 11:42p.m.
High: 4:00a.m. 4:34p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.53'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, February 1, 2010
Low: 39
Normal Low: 42
Record Low: 15-1951
High: 49
Normal High: 62
Record High: 80-1950
Precipitation:
Today: 0.06"
Month to Date: 0.06"
Normal Month to Date: 0.15"
Year to Date: 3.41"
Normal Year to Date: 5.67"
Record: 4.14"-1952
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:03a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:51p.m.
Tuesday Hunting Times: 6:33a.m.-6:21p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday February 2
Full Moon- Tuesday February 9
Last Quarter- Tuesday February 16
New Moon- Thursday February 25
This Date in Weather History...February 1: 1951...The greatest ice storm in U.S. History occurred carrying over from the end of January. It produced a glaze of up to 4" thick from Texas to Pennsylvania. It resulted in 25 deaths, 500 serious injuries, & $100 million damage. The hardest hit area from this ice storm was Tennessee. Communications and utilities were interrupted for a week to 10 days.
Did You Know...There is a man in the U.S. who has survived being struck by lightning 7 times! Roy C. Sullivan, lost his big toenail in 1942, his eyebrows in 1969, and had his hair set on fire twice. The other 3 times he suffered slight burns. Many people are not as lucky as Mr. Sullivan. Thousands of deaths have been attributed to lightning over the years. You should never try your luck when it comes to lightning.
Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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