Happy Mardi Gras...The blog is in holiday mode through Ash Wednesday, and there will not be an entry tomorrow (Mardi Gras Day). I hope everyone has a safe and Happy Mardi Gras! Also, I apologize, there continues to be a problem with the graphics for the 7 day. If my computer skills were on the same level as my meteorology skills, I'd already have the problem corrected, but I continue to work diligently to figure it out. Graphics are available tonight, but they could be tinkered with over the next few days.
Much of the area saw accumulating snow for the 2nd time this season last Friday, and for some places it was the 3rd instance of frozen precipitation this season. While the Lake Charles area, missed out on any accumulating snow, flurries did occur in some places, and accumulating snows occurred just N and E of town. Some light accumulations occurred north of I-10 in SE Texas as well. I will have a complete look back at this winter storm in the coming days, along with some pictures to boot. If you have pictures of the snow event, please send them in, and I will be glad to put them on the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...While it may not be a quiet time in Louisiana with Mardi Gras and the continued euphoria of the Saints Super Bowl victory, the weather is quiet for once. Last week's snow is a distant memory now. A brief warm up occurred on Sunday with temperatures reaching near normal in the mid 60s ahead of a strong Arctic front which barreled through the region Sunday evening. This front brought a quick shot of additional rain, and even produced some strong thunderstorms with hail in parts of the forecast area. It was a sudden change as temperatures dropped from the 60s to the 30s, and with rain continuing for a time in the overnight hours as a post-frontal short wave moved through, some frozen precipitation occurred with no accumulation. The frozen precipitation was mostly in the form of sleet. All precipitation ended across the forecast area very early Monday morning between 1-3a.m. Strong CAA continued through the morning hours with temperatures starting out around freezing along I-10 and in the upper 20s for Alexandria and Fort Polk. Skies cleared quickly before sunrise, and it was a beautiful but cold Monday (Lundi Gras/President's Day) as temperatures topped out in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the entire area. Strong, gusty North winds made it feel even colder across the area as We will gradually warm up this week, but first we will endure some freezing temperatures over the next couple of days. This will make for a cold end to the carinval season as Mardi Gras 2010 promises to be a cold one.
Tonight as high pressure settles in across the area, the winds will slacken overnight with a relaxing pressure gradient. Very dry air in is place with low dew points around 20 degrees. The clear skies and dry air will allow temperatures to steadily fall through the night, eventually bottoming out in the mid 20s to around 30. The wind will keep the atmosphere mixed up enough to preclude the maximum radiational cooling possibilities, that would exist otherwise. Snuggle up overnight with the very cold conditions in place. A freeze is nothing new here in the winter of 2009-2010, and I doubt this week is the last week time we'll see freezing temperatures this season. For that all important Mardi Gras forecast...it looks great! Yes, it will be a cold start, but there is absolutely no rain forecast, and no clouds for that matter. High pressure will continue surging SE, and strengthen over the forecast area. This will keep winds very light, and the CAA regime should become neutral during the day. After the cold start with the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area, temperatures should warm up into the 50s area wide. The maximum of the mid 50s will be a few notches higher than that of Monday, but this is still well below normal for mid-February. A jacket or sweater may be necessary if you are going to be out and about on Tuesday, however, by the time the big parade rolls around on Tuesday night a coat will be necessary as temperatures will quickly fall off again once the sun goes down. We'll be heading for another freeze as Mardi Gras 2010 comes to an end, and Lent is ushered in. Temperatures will be similar to that of tonight on Tuesday night. A freeze will occur area wide once again. It is possible that some locations will see temperatures a degree or two colder on Tuesday night as conditions will be more favorable for maximum radiational cooling with nearly calm winds in place. Expect lows to range from 25 to 30 across the forecast area. Quiet but cold weather will continue for Ash Wednesday as high pressure dominates, and only slowly moves to the East. After another morning freeze, highs will rebound nicely and be very similar to those of Tuesday. A very light NW flow at the surface will continue with the orientation of the high pressure axis.
Sunday night's cold front has brought forth a much welcomed pattern shift (at least temporarily), and the dry weather will continue for the duration of the abbreviated work week. The upper air pattern transitions to zonal during the second half of the week, and this will signal a warming trend. After yet another cold night with a light freeze in some areas for Wednesday night/Thursday morning, a stronger warm up is noted. Beautiful weather continues on Thursday with sunny skies. Highs reach the lower 60s, as we inch our way towards normal. Clouds should remain few and far between with very dry air still in place at the surface. The warming trend continues further for Thursday night as a more pronounced Southerly flow moves into the region with the strong high over the Tennessee Valley. It will be seasonably cold for this period with temperatures falling to the upper 30s to around 40 with some clouds possible towards Friday morning. Moisture increases, but Friday remains dry with no sensible weather expected.
The established zonal flow will help to continue the warming trend, and keep major storm systems away from the area for the time being. This is very good news. However, there will be a minor disturbance (short wave) that will be rotating through the zonal flow. Exactly when this moves into range remains to be seen, but right now I have it pegged for the Friday night/Saturday time frame. Only some light rain or showers are expected at this time. We have plenty of time to fine tune this later this week. Ahead of this minor perturbation, we'll see a continued increase in clouds Friday with highs reaching the lower 60s once again...sounds like Thursday doesn't it? The rain chance is introduced for Friday night and carries over into the early stages of the weekend, but rain chances are minor at this time. This system doesn't look like a big deal. The overall pattern will hopefully keep any added energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream away. The zonal pattern doesn't favor an El Nino type storm system this go around. The weak disturbance quickly exits Eastward, setting up a dry pattern for the rest of the weekend. Temperatures will be mild with highs in the lower 60s on Saturday after a morning low in the upper 40s. Sunday should be a decent day, and there won't really be any change in temperature behind the minor short wave. Some clouds will hang around, but there should be a good deal of sunshine. A more active pattern becomes re-established over the weekend. A stronger short wave looks to be hanging in the balance for the end of the forecast period on Monday. This one should bring a better chance of rain, and perhaps some instability to generate some thunderstorms. Again, we'll have to re-assess this possibility in later forecasts. This Monday system should have a cold associated with it, as another trough is carved across the base of the Rockies. The milder temperatures will continue as we round out the forecast period with highs near normal, and lows following suit as well. Beyond the forecast period, it cools off a bit, but nothing terribly cold. However, the signals are there that another round of really cold air will move this way towards month's end. Like I said above, I don't think this week's freeze will be our last for this winter season. Happy Mardi Gras!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 28/54 30/56 34/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 28/53 29/55 33/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 29/55 31/57 35/62 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 25/52 25/54 30/58 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 26/52 26/54 31/59 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 29/54 30/56 32/60 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cold. Low 28. NW wind 5-10 mph.
Mardi Gras...Sunny. High 54. NNW wind 5-10 mph.
Mardi Gras Night...Clear and Cold. Low 30. Light North wind.
Ash Wednesday...Sunny. High 56. North wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 34. Light North wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 60. NE wind 10 mph.
Mardi Gras Daily Planner (Tuesday 2/16/2010)
7a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cold
Temp: 28
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 3
W.C.: 26
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 50
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 6
5p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
2-16-10
Mardi Gas
Low: 28
High: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-35
Wednesday
2-17-10
Ash Wednesday
Low: 30
High: 56
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 25-40
Thursday
2-18-10
Low: 34
High: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
W.C.: 30-45
Friday
2-19-10
Low: 38
High: 61
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 10
Saturday
2-20-10
Low: 43
High: 62
Precip: 20%
Wind: SE/SW 10-15
Sunday
2-21-10
Low: 48
High: 66
Precip: 0%
Wind: SW 10-15
Monday
2-22-10
Low: 49
High: 64
Precip: 40%
Wind: SW/NW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Happy Mardi Gras! Good night and God bless!
-DM-
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