Friday, August 16, 2013
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Friday, August 16, 2013
Monday, January 28, 2013
Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Night...
Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion.....It was an unseasonably warm & overcast late January day. Winds have also increased as the return flow of Gulf moisture deepens across the area. This is all in advance of the next potent storm system which is sweeping through the Great Plains and Upper MidWest at press time. This will affect SW Louisiana in the late afternoon Tuesday-early Wednesday morning time frame. Certainly, showers & thunderstorms will be prevalent across our part of the world, but will there be a severe weather threat as well? That is the main question for this forecast package, and I will answer it as best I can shortly. First, in the short-term look for a relatively uneventful Monday evening with a continuation of the overcast conditions. The atmosphere remains largely capped at this time. Low-level moisture is at a premium across the region already, and this only continue to be the case through the night. Some areas of fog will exist as we head into the Tuesday morning commute, but surface winds should stay up just enough to keep the atmosphere mixed up to preclude a significant fog threat with the exception of the coastal counties/parishes. Areas along and South of I-10 have a better chance of seeing widespread dense fog. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the aforementioned coastal areas. It is highly possible as the night wears on that the dense fog advisory could be extended further North. It is a given, however, that Mostly Cloudy and unseasonably warm conditions will continue and temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 60s. Most of the day tomorrow will remain just dry & unseasonably warm. The wind will be the big story for the day on Tuesday due to the increasing pressure gradient in response to the developing/approaching storm system. Winds out of a Southerly direction will continue on the order of 15-20 mph at times with higher gusts. A slight chance of a brief shower or two can't be ruled out by early afternoon, but rain chances don't really ramp up until late afternoon or evening. It may well still be dry across much of the area for evening drive time. This appears to be a set up that will allow for an accelerating system across this area.
Time frame for shower & thunderstorm activity looks to be from around 6p.m. to 6a.m. The current trough which resides across the Rocky Mountains will advance Eastward, and traverse SW Louisiana Tuesday Night. This will clash with the ample amounts of moisture we have to generate shower & thunderstorm activity across the area most likely sunset. Activity will be scattered in nature at first in the pre-frontal environment. The enhanced Jet Stream activity along with a surface low moving from SW to NE along the cold front will also add more instability to the equation, thus the severe weather threat. The entire forecast area is highlighted for at least a slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity. The northern extremity of the forecast area is pegged for a moderate risk. It does appear that the greatest threat for severe weather will reside safely to the NE of our area. A significant tornado outbreak looks to be unfolding from NE Louisiana through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. I'm sure it will be a long night for someone here across the South. Here at home, certainly some severe storms are possible, but from everything I have perused this should be on an isolated nature. Heavy rain looks like a good bet for all of us, but some of the storms along & ahead of the front could become rather boisterous producing damaging winds, large hail, or an isolated tornado. Damaging winds are the main threat with our storms, and to narrow down a time frame even further, the best chance for this looks be between 10p.m. for the extreme NW portion of the forecast area, to 4a.m. for the extreme SE portion. I will target 12-2a.m. for the Lake Area. I would advise to go ahead and have your severe weather plan of action in place for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning since this will more than likely come by the time most of us are asleep. Check your NOAA Weather Radio to make sure it's in alert mode. You might want to leave your TV or radio on all night, so that you can be informed that way if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio. Flashlights & battery-powered radios/TVs/your cell phone are good items to have as well should their be a loss of power. Aside from this slight risk of severe weather, brief heavy rainfall is likely. This system is a fast mover, so that will in turn, limit rainfall totals. Soil moisture content across the area is still very high, and we don't need a whole lot of rain given the recent flooding, but should there be any flooding it should be localized & mostly be in urban & low-lying areas. All of this quickly progresses Eastward through the night, and the storms will be a distant memory (hopefully nothing more) by sunrise Wednesday. Some post-frontal shower activity is possible for a few hours behind the front, but much drier & much cooler air will quickly be taking over. The boundary layer moisture will be quickly scoured out as well, thus eliminating a prolonged period of overrunning. I have included some graphical representation of the severe weather outlook for Day 2 (Tuesday).
The remainder of the forecast period offers a period of tranquility. This will be welcomed for sure by all involved with the Super Bowl activities & the plethora of Mardi Gras activities ongoing as well. Let us not forget it is Rodeo weekend here in Lake Charles as well. High pressure will ridge into the area from the Western U.S. as the day progresses Wednesday. Morning clouds will give way to sunny skies by around lunch time, if not sooner. Temperatures will return to near seasonal levels for late January, so after one more day of highs in the mid to potentially upper 70s Tuesday, we'll see highs back into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday. Chilly weather is on tap for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning with clear skies & light winds in place thanks to the ridge of high pressure. Lows will be very close to freezing for Thursday Morning. Abundant sunshine will result in a quick warm up with highs reaching the mid 60s...nice & refreshing! Slight moderation begins Friday, but it will continue to be very nice. Morning lows will be in the 30s once again while highs reach the low to mid 60s. Subtle changes for the weekend. Another, but weaker cold front, will be heading our way Saturday. This will create very little weather across the way, perhaps just scare up some clouds. No rain as moisture will remain very limited due to lack of a prolonged return flow. Temperatures won't change all that much either. Seasonal temperature values are expected both Saturday & Sunday. Sunday looks super for any of your outdoor Super Bowl Sunday plans. Normal temperatures for early February are low 40s for lows and low to mid 60s for highs. Rounding out the forecast period on Monday, clouds will increase as a progressive pattern will be in place. Return flow of low-level moisture will advance across the area, but at this time rain chances are not expected to return until beyond this forecast period with the next front scheduled around the middle of next week. The big time Arctic outbreaks that have been visiting the Northern third of our great nation look to remain away from SW Louisiana for the time being. It is possible some modified Arctic air will visit the area in the day 10-14 period, but this is no concern for us right now. We're in fine shape after this bump in the road over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned for more!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 63/77 54/65 32/62 10 40 90 10 0 0
CAM 68/73 60/66 41/65 10 40 90 10 0 0
LFT 63/76 55/64 33/62 10 30 90 20 0 0
ARA 65/77 55/65 35/85 10 30 90 20 0 0
BPT 66/78 53/66 34/64 10 40 90 10 0 0
JAS 62/77 53/62 30/62 10 50 90 10 0 0
AEX 62/78 51/61 29/60 10 50 90 10 0 0
POE 62/78 51/61 30/61 10 50 90 10 0 0
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 63. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday...Patchy Fog early. Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly after 4p.m. High 77. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Tuesday Night...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe storms possible w/ damaging wind & isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall expected as well. Rainfall totals around 1" with isolated 2" amounts. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 54. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty becoming WNW at 15-20 mph & gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday...Morning clouds giving way to Sunny skies by noon. Cooler. High 65. NNW wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear & Cold. Low 32. Light NW wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 62. North wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear & Seasonably Cold. Low 36. Light NE wind.
Friday...Sunny. High 64. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 41. East wind 5 mph.
Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 67. SE wind 5-10 mph, becoming NW 10 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday 1/29/13 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog
Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 7
9a.m.
Weather: Cloudy & Breezy
Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Cloudy & Windy
Temp: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
3p.m.
Weather: Cloudy w/ some Scattered Showers Developing
Temp:76
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 18
6p.m.
Temp: 72
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15
9p.m.
Weather: Showers & Thunderstorms Likely
Temp: 70
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Tuesday
1-29-13
Low: 63
High: 77
Rain: 40% PM...90% Overnight
Wind: SSE 15-20
Wednesday
1-30-13
Low: 54
High: 65
Rain: 90% Before Daybreak...0% During the Day
Wind: NNW 10-15
Thursday
1-31-13
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Friday
2-1-13
Low: 36
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Saturday
2-2-13
Groundhog Day
Low: 41
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE/NNW 5-10
Sunday
2-3-13
Super Bowl Sunday...Ravens vs. 49ers...New Orleans
Low: 43
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
Monday
2-4-13
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
*Dense Fog Advisory through 9a.m. Tuesday.*
*Small Craft Exercise Caution through Early Tuesday.*
Tonight: Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy dense fog in the evening...then areas of dense fog after midnight. Visibility 1 nm or less.
Tuesday: South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less early in the morning...then areas of fog in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday Night: Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday: Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet then 3 feet in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night: North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday: East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday Night: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Friday: East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night: East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
...Tide Data...
Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 9:51a.m. 10:24p.m.
High: 2:30a.m. 4:41p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
168.58'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Monday, January 28, 2013
Low: 64
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 21-1897
High: 76
Normal High: 62
Record High: 81-1912
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 11.32"
Normal Month to Date: 4.76"
Year to Date: 11.32"
Normal Year to Date: 4.76"
Record: 3.00"- 1916
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2012)
Low: 46
High: 69
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2008)
Low: 35
High: 67
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2003)
Low: 45
High: 68
Rain: 0.02"
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:05a.m.
Sunset Tuesday: 5:48p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:35a.m.-6:18p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Sunday February 3
New Moon- Sunday February 10
First Quarter- Sunday February 17
Full Moon- Monday February 25
Have a great Tuesday, & stay tuned for more on the impinging severe weather & God Bless!
-DM-
Friday, January 25, 2013
Unseasonable Warmth Through the Weekend...
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Don't think we should brag too much here in SW Louisiana, but it might be hard not to when you compare our above normal warmth to the bitterly cold Arctic air mass across the Northern 1/3 of the country. This Arctic air may eventually reach SW Louisiana down the road, but not in the next few days. We do have some changes to discuss with our weather, however, so let's get to it.
It has been a day of generally overcast conditions and continued unseasonable warmth. Daytime highs generally reached the lower 70s across much of the area. We did manage to have a decent amount of sunshine in the mid-late afternoon hours. Morning fog was not as much a factor this morning as it was on Wednesday thanks to stronger boundary layer mixing via surface winds. A weakening late January cold front is in transit at press time, and this front will continue to decay as it approaches this forecast area during the day Friday. For tonight, look for a quiet night for the most part. We will deal with re-development of the low cloud (stratus) deck & also have to mention the prospect of fog once again. Although, I do believe it will be more like it was this morning, and not be excessively dense in most areas. Sure, there will be some areas where it is more foggy than others, but for the most part tonight will not be prime conditions for fog formation. The unseasonable warmth will continue as well as the surface flow continues to be straight off the Gulf waters. Overnight lows will generally be closer to what our average daytime high is for this time of year....upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday will continue to offer much of the same conditions with highs reaching the low to mid 70s once again as the weak cold front continues to only slowly sag Southward while the weakening continues. (frontlysis). I suppose I should mention a very slight chance of some sprinkles or a light shower, but no big deal.
The final weekend of January 2013 will be a decent one, probably the 2nd best weekend so far this year. The weakening front will wash out virtually overhead, but will do little to affect our way. Perhaps, there might be one or two small, brief showers Saturday, but at this point I believe the chances are too negligible to even mention in the actual forecast. Cloud cover may be rather prevalent especially the first half of the day before somewhat drier air moves in to scour out the cloudiness. That should set the stage for an afternoon filled with plenty of sunshine & a just a slight reduction in maximum temperatures. Highs will be back to the mid 60s to around 70. Sunday be the reverse of Saturday, meaning drier air will be in place in the morning before the return flow kicks up again in earnest, bringing back low-level moisture & cloud cover for the afternoon, but we remain dry. So, your outdoor weekend plans look just fine! Sunday's temperatures will continue to be above the norm for late January with low to mid 70s for highs afternoon a morning start around the 50 degree threshold. There's always a lot to do around here this time of year with Mardi Gras getting revved up & crawfish season in full force now. Of course, it is a great time to be in Louisiana, and we will have a lot of visitors to the state over the next couple weeks with the Super Bowl & Mardi Gras. Hopefully, Mother Nature will cooperate the whole time.
That would not appear to be so as we head into next week, as it stands right now anyway. Model discrepancy is wreaking havoc on trying to forecast with any accuracy beyond about Monday really. I believe it is safe to go ahead and add small rain chances to the forecast for Monday as deeper Gulf moisture pulls in over the area, while the next trough advances & deepens out West. It certainly seems almost a certainty at this point, that the Jet Stream will be digging once again, and unlike this week, it will be digging to our West again. The unseasonably warm late January weather will continue to reside over SW Louisiana, until we get the trough to advance into and past our area. The active Jet Stream will dig to the SE and the previously active Subtropical Jet Stream will get energized once again by Tuesday & Wednesday. This will result in short waves (disturbances) developing and rotating through the area in advance of the main trough. This will increase rain chances for Tuesday & especially Wednesday. Models diverge on how strong the system will be & the timing of it as well. For now, a blend is perhaps the best course of action. There is certainly a chance we could have some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as the latest cold front swings through the area, but this is something that will need further fine tuning given the large discrepancies in the models. I will not mention this at this time, and will reserve that right to later forecasts after the weekend. Rainfall totals are in question as well. One model has generally had a wet bias this winter, while the other has a dry bias, and that is presumed to be the case once again. This doesn't look anything like the previous rainfall event between the 8th and 16th, but it could produce a 1-2" rain across the area. Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs through Wednesday, and lows may climb into the lower 60s by Tuesday & Wednesday with plenty of low-level moisture in place resulting in high dew points across the area. Fog will also be possible each morning Monday-Wednesday, but there looks to be enough atmospheric mixing to keep it from being a major issue.
Model divergence rearing its ugly head at the end of the period presents a somewhat questionable forecast for the end of the period. Some model output suggests the mid-week front slowing down & hanging around into Thursday which might keep rain chances going, however, other & what I feel are the most reliable models show the front clearing the area Wednesday afternoon with a much cooler & drier air mass spilling into the region by Wednesday Night. This would set us up for a quiet end to the month of January on Thursday. Temperatures are also in question. The pattern favors at least some modified Arctic air invading the region, however, models don't really show anything cooler than we've already experienced this winter. In light of this, I will once again blend the forecast. That is, I will reflect a return to below normal temperatures, but not as cold as it could potentially be. Hard to believe it will February a week from tomorrow, and then the Super Bowl next weekend. An early glance at the forecast shows dry but cold weather in place with the potential for some freezing temperatures, but that of course, is still beyond the scope of the 7 day forecast & is considered to be hogwash at this time. I don't believe we are done with winter around here; we typically need to make it to the 2nd half of February before we can turn the corner towards Spring. In closing, a little climatology note regarding rainfall...The all-time record rainfall for the month of January at Lake Charles is 14.29" in 1991, and so far this year we have received officially 11.32" of rain. We could still break the monthly record depending on how much additional rain we receive next week. The good news is at least, we have had a week now with no rain to give our rivers & other flooded areas a chance to dry out. Many areas have received over 15" of rain this month. I will have a summary on that in the coming days.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/73 55/68 51/71 0 10 10 10 0 0
CAM 61/68 62/70 58/68 0 10 10 10 0 0
LFT 55/74 56/68 50/72 0 10 10 10 0 0
ARA 60/73 57/69 52/72 0 10 10 10 0 0
BPT 60/75 54/71 53/73 0 10 10 10 0 0
JAS 54/72 50/67 48/70 0 10 10 10 0 0
AEX 53/73 50/66 47/68 0 20 20 10 0 0
POE 53/73 50/66 47/69 0 20 20 10 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. South wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Early Morning Patchy Fog otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm. High 73. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night....Mostly Cloudy & just slightly cooler. Low 55. SW wind 5-10 mph, becoming West 10 mph toward sunrise.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. High 68. NW wind 10-15 mph becoming NE in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 51. Light East wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 71. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ areas of fog developing after midnight. Low 58. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Areas of Fog early, then Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers mainly during the afternoon. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & a few thunderstorms. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday 1/21/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog
Temp:57
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 6
W.C. N/A
9a.m.
Weather: Partly To Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 11
W.C. N/A
Noon
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 12
W.C.:N/A
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 14
W.C.:N/A
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 7
W.C.: N/A
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 8
W.C.: N/A
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
1-25-13
Low: 57
High: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Saturday
1-26-13
Low: 55
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: NW/NE1 0-15
W.C.: N/A
Sunday
1-27-13
Low: 51
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Monday
1-28-13
Low: 58
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Tuesday
1-29-13
Low: 61
High: 74
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
W.C.: N/A
Wednesday
1-30-13
Low: 62
High: 70
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
W.C.: N/A
Thursday
1-31-13
Low: 35
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 2 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:44a.m. 8:52p.m.
High: 3:44p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.21'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Low: 48
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 12-1948
High: 72
Normal High: 62
Record High: 85-1914
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 11.32"
Normal Month to Date: 4.15"
Year to Date: 11.32"
Normal Year to Date: 4.15"
Record: 6.60"- 1915
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2012)
Low: 54
High: 66
Rain: 0.21"
5 Years Ago (2008)
Low: 42
High: 49
Rain: 0.52"
10 Years Ago (2003)
Low: 23
High: 42
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:44p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:37a.m.-6:14p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Saturday January 26
Last Quarter- Sunday February 3
New Moon- Sunday February 10
First Quarter- Sunday February 17
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Don't think we should brag too much here in SW Louisiana, but it might be hard not to when you compare our above normal warmth to the bitterly cold Arctic air mass across the Northern 1/3 of the country. This Arctic air may eventually reach SW Louisiana down the road, but not in the next few days. We do have some changes to discuss with our weather, however, so let's get to it.
It has been a day of generally overcast conditions and continued unseasonable warmth. Daytime highs generally reached the lower 70s across much of the area. We did manage to have a decent amount of sunshine in the mid-late afternoon hours. Morning fog was not as much a factor this morning as it was on Wednesday thanks to stronger boundary layer mixing via surface winds. A weakening late January cold front is in transit at press time, and this front will continue to decay as it approaches this forecast area during the day Friday. For tonight, look for a quiet night for the most part. We will deal with re-development of the low cloud (stratus) deck & also have to mention the prospect of fog once again. Although, I do believe it will be more like it was this morning, and not be excessively dense in most areas. Sure, there will be some areas where it is more foggy than others, but for the most part tonight will not be prime conditions for fog formation. The unseasonable warmth will continue as well as the surface flow continues to be straight off the Gulf waters. Overnight lows will generally be closer to what our average daytime high is for this time of year....upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday will continue to offer much of the same conditions with highs reaching the low to mid 70s once again as the weak cold front continues to only slowly sag Southward while the weakening continues. (frontlysis). I suppose I should mention a very slight chance of some sprinkles or a light shower, but no big deal.
The final weekend of January 2013 will be a decent one, probably the 2nd best weekend so far this year. The weakening front will wash out virtually overhead, but will do little to affect our way. Perhaps, there might be one or two small, brief showers Saturday, but at this point I believe the chances are too negligible to even mention in the actual forecast. Cloud cover may be rather prevalent especially the first half of the day before somewhat drier air moves in to scour out the cloudiness. That should set the stage for an afternoon filled with plenty of sunshine & a just a slight reduction in maximum temperatures. Highs will be back to the mid 60s to around 70. Sunday be the reverse of Saturday, meaning drier air will be in place in the morning before the return flow kicks up again in earnest, bringing back low-level moisture & cloud cover for the afternoon, but we remain dry. So, your outdoor weekend plans look just fine! Sunday's temperatures will continue to be above the norm for late January with low to mid 70s for highs afternoon a morning start around the 50 degree threshold. There's always a lot to do around here this time of year with Mardi Gras getting revved up & crawfish season in full force now. Of course, it is a great time to be in Louisiana, and we will have a lot of visitors to the state over the next couple weeks with the Super Bowl & Mardi Gras. Hopefully, Mother Nature will cooperate the whole time.
That would not appear to be so as we head into next week, as it stands right now anyway. Model discrepancy is wreaking havoc on trying to forecast with any accuracy beyond about Monday really. I believe it is safe to go ahead and add small rain chances to the forecast for Monday as deeper Gulf moisture pulls in over the area, while the next trough advances & deepens out West. It certainly seems almost a certainty at this point, that the Jet Stream will be digging once again, and unlike this week, it will be digging to our West again. The unseasonably warm late January weather will continue to reside over SW Louisiana, until we get the trough to advance into and past our area. The active Jet Stream will dig to the SE and the previously active Subtropical Jet Stream will get energized once again by Tuesday & Wednesday. This will result in short waves (disturbances) developing and rotating through the area in advance of the main trough. This will increase rain chances for Tuesday & especially Wednesday. Models diverge on how strong the system will be & the timing of it as well. For now, a blend is perhaps the best course of action. There is certainly a chance we could have some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as the latest cold front swings through the area, but this is something that will need further fine tuning given the large discrepancies in the models. I will not mention this at this time, and will reserve that right to later forecasts after the weekend. Rainfall totals are in question as well. One model has generally had a wet bias this winter, while the other has a dry bias, and that is presumed to be the case once again. This doesn't look anything like the previous rainfall event between the 8th and 16th, but it could produce a 1-2" rain across the area. Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs through Wednesday, and lows may climb into the lower 60s by Tuesday & Wednesday with plenty of low-level moisture in place resulting in high dew points across the area. Fog will also be possible each morning Monday-Wednesday, but there looks to be enough atmospheric mixing to keep it from being a major issue.
Model divergence rearing its ugly head at the end of the period presents a somewhat questionable forecast for the end of the period. Some model output suggests the mid-week front slowing down & hanging around into Thursday which might keep rain chances going, however, other & what I feel are the most reliable models show the front clearing the area Wednesday afternoon with a much cooler & drier air mass spilling into the region by Wednesday Night. This would set us up for a quiet end to the month of January on Thursday. Temperatures are also in question. The pattern favors at least some modified Arctic air invading the region, however, models don't really show anything cooler than we've already experienced this winter. In light of this, I will once again blend the forecast. That is, I will reflect a return to below normal temperatures, but not as cold as it could potentially be. Hard to believe it will February a week from tomorrow, and then the Super Bowl next weekend. An early glance at the forecast shows dry but cold weather in place with the potential for some freezing temperatures, but that of course, is still beyond the scope of the 7 day forecast & is considered to be hogwash at this time. I don't believe we are done with winter around here; we typically need to make it to the 2nd half of February before we can turn the corner towards Spring. In closing, a little climatology note regarding rainfall...The all-time record rainfall for the month of January at Lake Charles is 14.29" in 1991, and so far this year we have received officially 11.32" of rain. We could still break the monthly record depending on how much additional rain we receive next week. The good news is at least, we have had a week now with no rain to give our rivers & other flooded areas a chance to dry out. Many areas have received over 15" of rain this month. I will have a summary on that in the coming days.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 57/73 55/68 51/71 0 10 10 10 0 0
CAM 61/68 62/70 58/68 0 10 10 10 0 0
LFT 55/74 56/68 50/72 0 10 10 10 0 0
ARA 60/73 57/69 52/72 0 10 10 10 0 0
BPT 60/75 54/71 53/73 0 10 10 10 0 0
JAS 54/72 50/67 48/70 0 10 10 10 0 0
AEX 53/73 50/66 47/68 0 20 20 10 0 0
POE 53/73 50/66 47/69 0 20 20 10 0 0
Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. South wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Early Morning Patchy Fog otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm. High 73. SSW wind 10-15 mph.
Friday Night....Mostly Cloudy & just slightly cooler. Low 55. SW wind 5-10 mph, becoming West 10 mph toward sunrise.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. High 68. NW wind 10-15 mph becoming NE in the afternoon.
Saturday Night...Clear. Low 51. Light East wind.
Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 71. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ areas of fog developing after midnight. Low 58. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Areas of Fog early, then Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers mainly during the afternoon. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Tuesday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & a few thunderstorms. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Friday 1/21/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog
Temp:57
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 6
W.C. N/A
9a.m.
Weather: Partly To Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 11
W.C. N/A
Noon
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 12
W.C.:N/A
3p.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 14
W.C.:N/A
6p.m.
Weather: Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 7
W.C.: N/A
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 8
W.C.: N/A
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
1-25-13
Low: 57
High: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Saturday
1-26-13
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: NW/NE1 0-15
W.C.: N/A
Sunday
1-27-13
Low: 51
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Monday
1-28-13
Low: 58
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
W.C.: N/A
Tuesday
1-29-13
Low: 61
High: 74
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
W.C.: N/A
Wednesday
1-30-13
High: 70
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
W.C.: N/A
Thursday
1-31-13
Low: 35
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog.
Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning.
Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 2 feet after midnight.
Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday Night...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Monday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 7:44a.m. 8:52p.m.
High: 3:44p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.21'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Low: 48
Normal Low: 43
Record Low: 12-1948
High: 72
Normal High: 62
Record High: 85-1914
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 11.32"
Normal Month to Date: 4.15"
Year to Date: 11.32"
Normal Year to Date: 4.15"
Record: 6.60"- 1915
Sensible Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2012)
Low: 54
High: 66
Rain: 0.21"
5 Years Ago (2008)
Low: 42
High: 49
Rain: 0.52"
10 Years Ago (2003)
Low: 23
High: 42
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Friday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Friday: 5:44p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:37a.m.-6:14p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Saturday January 26
Last Quarter- Sunday February 3
New Moon- Sunday February 10
First Quarter- Sunday February 17
Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
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