Tranquil Weather for Final Full Week of October...

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Before I get to the weather, the usual business at hand, I want to make a brief, exciting personal announcement! As you already know, I tied the knot earlier this year, and it's been an amazing 8 months already with beautiful, smoking hot wife! However, that's not all...God has been so good, and has blessed us more than words could ever describe! I am proud to announce that Lucy & I are expecting our first child in May. Lucy is about 12 weeks pregnant, and little baby is progressing quite nicely so far. I will keep all of you updated as we go along. Please keep us in your prayers & thoughts as we walk this amazing journey & prepare to bring this new life into the world & become parents. Now onto the forecast...


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather for the last few days has been as beautiful as my wife! One of those two will not be nearly as beautiful as we go through the work week, and it's not my wife. The controlling area of high pressure is already exiting stage right, and we have seen an increase in low-level moisture on this Sunday. Morning lows were about 6-12 degrees warmer on average across the area this morning. We were in the upper 40s on Saturday, and readings were near 60 here at Lake Charles this morning. After a cloud-free Friday & Saturday, we have seen the return of some fairweather cumulus clouds this afternoon, but all in all it has been a beautiful Sunday as well. Sundays are always more beautiful when the Saints win! It has been seasonably warm with highs in the lower 80s on the average. A dry pattern will continue overall for much of the week with no real weather systems to speak of. We will retain an onshore flow as surface high pressures will be absent across the area, but remain in place aloft. This means that we will see temperatures return to normal to above normal for late October. Morning lows will be in the 60s while afternoon highs remain in the low to mid 80s as the Gulf waters greatly influence our weather. Late night/early morning patchy fog is certainly possible in this pattern, but given the relatively dry ground, I don't foresee anything of significance to even mention in the official forecast. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy each day through at least Thursday.

Changes are expected as we round out the work week, and more specifically next weekend. However, this far out there is always a question of timing and to what extent? Friday should certainly see a more substantial increase in cloud cover, and surface winds will likely increase as well. This, as a strong & deepening trough will be advancing out of the Rocky Mountain region. This will further enhance moisture across the forecast area, and at this time it appears that it is necessary to insert a small chance of rain for the Friday time frame. However, upper level ridging will largely keep the atmosphere capped, so I don't expect much more than just some isolated & brief shower activity mainly due to streaming Gulf moisture. The advancing trough will set the stage for the strongest cold front of the season to make its way through the forecast area on Saturday. Like its predecessor, this front doesn't look to be a major rain producer across the area at this time. Better moisture & convergence should be in place in the vicinity of the front, and at that time we is when we will likely see our best chance for showers & thunderstorms. The modes differ on the timing of the front, with some showing an arrival as early as Friday, while others holding the front back until Saturday middle of the day. Given the strength of this front, the faster solution may end up winning out, but for now I will take the middle of the road solution reflecting frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday. At this time, I believe the best chance for shower & thunderstorm activity will come well after all of Friday Night's important High School Football games.

Behind the front, much colder air will begin to infiltrate the region replacing the warm & humid air mass that will engulf the region in the pre-frontal environment. Strong Northerly winds will usher in a fresh, continental air mass & it promises to be the coolest air so far this season. Models once again vary from run to run on just how cool (or cold depending on what is cold to you) it will be. The timing issues will become very important because it is McNeese homecoming Saturday, and of course, we don't want rain for the game. There is also some model output that suggest a more shallow air mass which would translate to some form of overrunning moisture in the post-frontal environment. If that were to transpire, we would likely not get rid of the cloud cover & also have to keep rain chances in the forecast for the balance of the day on Saturday & maybe even for Sunday. However, given the current pattern this fall, my forecast will not reflect any such idea of that scenario right now. High pressure will build in & conditions will improve during the course of the day Saturday. It will remain rather windy though, and CAA will offset daytime heating as the sun returns later int he day. Morning lows will likely still be in the 60s on Saturday morning depending on the timing of the front, but if it comes in sooner, then 50s are likely for much of the area. With CAA in place, highs will still struggle to reach the mid 70s. It should be on the chilly side for the remainder of the weekend, just in time for the homecoming game. Lows on Saturday night should be well down in the 40s...let's call it mid 40s along I-10 as skies clear and winds decrease. Sunday looks beautiful with lots of sunshine as a mix of Canadian & Pacific air will be in place via a building ridge of high pressure. Highs may barely reach 70 Sunday, but may just well only reach the 60s for most of the area depending on just how much cold air moves in. Some of the coldest locations may dip into the upper 30s for morning lows for the first time this season in about week. The coolest air mass of the season will hang around in the waning days of October with modification as we head towards Halloween.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   64/85  66/85  66/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM  70/82  70/82  71/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT    63/84  64/86  65/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA   64/84  66/85  67/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT    66/86  67/87  68/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS     59/83  62/85  65/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX   58/82  61/84  63/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE    59/82  62/85  64/85  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear. Low 64. Light South wind.

Monday...Mostly Sunny. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. SE wind 5 mph.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Breezy w/ a 20% chance of a shower. High 84. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.


Monday 10/22/12 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny


Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8


3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny


Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7


9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday
10-22-12

Low:  64
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Tuesday
10-23-12

Low:  66
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Wednesday
10-24-12

Low:  66
High: 86
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Thursday
10-25-12

Low:  66
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 10-15


Friday
10-26-12

Low:  67
High: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
 

Saturday
10-27-12

Low: 62
High:73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25



Sunday
10-28-12

Low:  45
High: 70
Rain:  0%
Wind: NNW 10-15



...Tropical Update...

Of course, it is still officially hurricane season, but I would say that we have certainly turned the corner here, and have made it past the time when anything would threaten us. However, just for the sake of forecasting, let's take a look and see what's going on.

There are currently two areas of interest. One lies in the Central Caribbean to the South Hispaniola and Jamaica. This area is festering in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean, and has been nearly stationary or moved only slowly Westward in the past couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical development within the next day or two. This system will move little through Monday with only a slow Westward nudge expected through mid-week. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 70% chance of development through Tuesday. Heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods will be possible across Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.

Also, interaction between a tropical wave and an upper level low is generating an area of showers & thunderstorms across the Central Atlantic about 750 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles. This system is an a favorable area for further development at this time, but conditions will likely become less favorable for development by the middle of the week. This system is given a 40% chance of development through Tuesday. It will move off to the NNW at around 10 mph.

The next two names on the list for the 2012 season are Sandy and Tony. If either one of these systems develop, they will have no impact on SW Louisiana.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated through Tuesday.


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight... Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Monday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Tuesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.

Wednesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Thursday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:        5:07a.m.    3:53p.m.               
High:       8:00a.m.                 


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    168.00'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Sunday, October 21, 2012



Low:                61
Normal Low:   58
Record Low:   32-1917
High:               86
Normal High:  80
Record High:   92-1927

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:               0.42"
Normal Month to Date:  3.17"
Year to Date:                 64.58"
Normal Year to Date:    46.65"
Record:                           1.21"- 2006

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2011)

Low:     46
High:    80
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2007)

Low:    60
High:   85
Rain:    0.16"


10 Years Ago (2002)

Low:     63
High:    68
Rain:    0.70"


Sunrise Monday:   7:20a.m.
Sunset  Monday:   6:34p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:50a.m.-7:04p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Monday October 22

Full Moon-    Monday October 29

Last Quarter- Wednesday November 7

New Moon- Tuesday November 13


Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-

Isaac Eyes SE Louisiana...

Monday, August 27, 2012

***Tropical Weather Mode.***

We remain in tropical weather mode until Isaac is out of our hair.


It is not necessary for me to wax eloquently as I did last night due to time constraints, and the fact that is a more certain forecast. However, it is still prudent at this juncture to post some storm thoughts & tidbits. See the video for more details.






There is good news all around tonight. Isaac has not become a hurricane yet. We have a more definitive forecast for Isaac, and lastly only very minimal effects are expected across SW Louisiana. I would almost dub Isaac as "Irritating Isaac." It is astonishing that Isaac hasn't become a hurricane yet based on some of the Recon data & especially given the low pressure reading of 979 mb. (equal to a high end category 1 or low end category 2). However, when you look at Isaac on satellite representation it isn't as big of a surprise that he hasn't climbed to the next step on the tropical ladder yet. It is still a very disorganized, ragged, & lopsided storm. This is illustrated by the strongest convection & strongest winds currently being found on the S & W side of the center of circulation. This is the complete opposite of what you normally expect. Isaac has had to fight off many mitigating factors since its inception last week. Dry air intrusion seems to be the main issue at this point, and it is clearly evident that it is being fed into the center of circulation as it has been choked off every time it tries to get going.

Certainly, we are not complaining about the fact that Isaac is a weaker storm by any means. However, Isaac will still be a force to be reckoned with for our neighbors in SE Louisiana. Isaac is forecast to make landfall late Tuesday night or early Wednesday as a category 1 storm with winds around 90 mph. This is down from the previous forecast which said 100 mph (category 2). I am starting to wonder if Isaac reaching hurricane status at all. Surely, you would think that the winds will ultimately catch up to the pressure, but if the dry air entrainment continues then it just might not. The other thing to note this evening is the reduction in forward speed. That was predicted to occur. Isaac is moving into an area that is between two surface highs, and so steering currents may collapse for a couple of days before a trough digs in & lifts out the remnants of Isaac. The storm's forward speed is around 10 mph to the NW at this time. This is compared to around 15 mph, 24 hours ago. The storm is generally moving in the aforementioned NW direction, but it has wavered between WNW and NW for the better part of the past 24 hours. This forward motion should continue until landfall before it begins to make that right hand turn and lift out as it becomes extratropical over the Mid Mississippi Valley in the latter half of the work week.

The intensity at landfall is still a big question mark. I will forecast Isaac to become a hurricane, but the current 90 mph shown by the NHC might even be a stretch at this point. However, Isaac could just as quickly ramp up to a category 2 if it becomes more right side up & symmetrical. The models were onto something when they all showed nothing stronger than a low end category 3 with most of them showing category 2 at the strongest. SE Louisiana remains the target for a direct hit with landfall likely to occur in the vicinity of the Mouth of the Mississippi River late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. I believe landfall will be in generally the same area, I see no reason to deviate from the forecast the NHC has laid out, however, I still couldn't rule out a landfall as far West as Morgan City, but between the Mouth of the Mississippi River & Grand Isle seems more logical at this point. This means SW Louisiana will only experience fringe effects on the "good side" of the storm. What does this mean for our neighbors in SE Louisiana from New Orleans and the Northshore region? Let me briefly discuss their weather before I focus on ours for just a moment or two. Isaac is a large storm, and tropical storm force winds will be felt over a large area, however, it he reaches hurricane status, the hurricane force winds will likely be confined to very small area right around the center of circulation. Based on the current track, hurricane conditions are expected for a good portion of the Southshore area of Lake Pontchartrain & the Mississippi Delta itself. The official calls for 75 mph winds with the eye or center of circulation passing near New Orleans Wednesday morning. Isaac will weaken to a tropical storm, provided he does reach hurricane status. He will weaken regardless of what intensity he is beginning shortly after landfall. The storm will then continue a slow NW heading towards Baton Rouge and they should see 60-70 mph winds with higher gusts. Winds will gradually lessen as the circulation moves into Western Mississippi. Aside from the wind, heavy, flooding rains will be the issue with as much as 8-15" of rain expected across all of SE Louisiana East of the center of circulation. Isolated areas could see 20" of rain or more. Spin off tornadoes will also be a good bet along & to the right of this center. A storm surge over 10' will be possible along the SE Louisiana coastline through Coastal Mississippi. An area totally devastated by Katrina, and is still re-building in many spots. It is ironic that Conditions will greatly improve by Thursday.

For SW Louisiana, winds will only gradually increase on Tuesday as the storm approaches the coastline. We'll have an offshore wind, so we will have no issue with storm surge it would appear. Winds will be from the N to NE at start at around 10 mph gradually increasing to 20-25 mph during the afternoon. The outermost rain bands will start to move across South Louisiana Tuesday afternoon as well, so look for rain chances to start to increase as well. Overnight winds increase to 30-35 mph with occasional gusts into tropical storm range (40-45 mph) as more squalls move across the region in the NW quadrant of the storm. It appears that our strongest winds will occur during the day Wednesday as Isaac makes his closest approach to the Lake Area. Sustained winds should be in the 35 mph range with gusts possibly up to 50 mph in the strongest squalls, but sustained tropical storm force are not expected in the Lake Area. Lafayette has a better chance of experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds due to their closer proximity to the center of circulation. Rainfall totals on our side of the state will be considerably less. Instead of the 8-15" East of the Mississippi, I'm talking about 1-4" depending on where you are across the area. The tornado threat should be non-existent for us barring any unforeseen jogs to the West of the current forecast track. Winds will subside Wednesday night into Thursday as Isaac spins down to our NE. Rain chances will continue high into Thursday before normalcy returns to South Louisiana for Friday & the all important Labor Day weekend. All watches/warnings issued on Monday morning remain in place until further notice. The Lake Charles area is under a Tropical Storm Watch & the Lafayette area is under a Tropical Storm Warning & Hurricane Watch. The Hurricane Watch extends from Morgan City, LA to the Alabama/Florida border.

Tonight, I will just post the latest advisory & a satellite picture. Models are nearly useless now since we are inside of 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Isaac

Monday, August 27, 2012

...Isaac Trying to Become a Hurricane off the SE coast of Louisiana...

Latitude: 27.1 N
Longitude: 87.0 W

This position is about 440 miles ESE of Lake Charles & 190 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Winds: 70 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected on Tuesday before Isaac interacts with land by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Isaac is forecast to become a category 1 hurricane sometime Tuesday.

Moving; NW @ 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, though a reduction in forward speed is expected to occur until after landfall.

Pressure: 28.91" or 979 mb.




Finally, to wrap it up...here is my forecast in text form only through Labor Day.


*Tropical Storm Watch in effect.*

Tonight...Increasing High Clouds. Low 73. NE wind 10 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy & Breezy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91. NE wind 20-25 mph & gusty.

Tuesday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions. Mostly Cloudy & Windy with occasional squalls. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Low 76. NE wind 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60%.

Wednesday...Tropical Storm Conditions. Cloudy w/ tropical squalls off and on through the day. Rain heavy at times. High 87. North wind 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy & Windy with off and on squalls through the night. Rain heavy at times. Low 75. NW wind 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph, gradually decreasing through the night. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 60% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SW wind 15-20 mph & gusty.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 76. South wind 10 mph.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SE wind. Just a bit humid for High School Football.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Hot for the first weekend of college football. High 94. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SE wind.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.

Sunday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 77. Light SE wind.

Labor Day...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. No worries for your Labor Day plans! High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.

That's all for now, keep your eyes on Isaac! My next update here will be after 10p.m. Tuesday.
Have a great night & God bless!

Eyes on Isaac...

Sunday, August 26, 2012


***Tropical Weather Mode.***


This blog will take on a bit different format than you are accustomed to seeing, and it will remain this way until further notice. This blog will provide comprehensive & detailed information regarding Tropical Storm Isaac. It also includes a video, so be sure to click the link below to watch that. I will also link it on facebook. See the discussion & my official forecast below.

You always hear me say it when there's a storm threatening the Gulf..."can't sound the all clear just yet, and we'll continue to monitor the storm until it makes landfall". Boy, does that ring true this go-around! If you have been following along with me since Isaac's inception late last week, then you know it was originally expected to make landfall at mid-week in the Florida Panhandle. Well, my how things have changed (or at least we expect them to based on the current prognostications from the models.) Sure, a Florida landfall is still well within the realm of possibility, but what seems more likely is a hit closer to home. How close? When and what intensity? These are the questions we will answer with this discussion.

I hope everyone has indeed enjoyed this last weekend of August, but also heeded the advice I gave on Friday to keep one eye on Isaac. On this Sunday night, it is time to become vigilant but at the same time not panic in any way, shape, or form. We have been through this before, and this will certainly NOT be anything like what we endured 7 years ago, and probably not even 4 years ago. Every storm is a different entity, and Isaac has certainly proved that. He was originally forecast to be a hurricane on Thursday or Friday while approaching Hispaniola, but it never made it. Well, it still hasn't as of the 4p.m. advisory, however, that could change within the next 24 hours. The current satellite representation shows that Isaac is trying to get better organized with convection trying to wrap all the way around the center as it pulls away from the Florida Keys and enters the SE Gulf of Mexico. It will be interesting to watch to see if Isaac can get his act together to even reach hurricane status. Regardless, the system in whatever capacity it is has to go somewhere. The National Hurricane Center has traditionally been conservative with their forecasts, and anytime an adjustment is made it is typically done gradually. I think this is generally smart, just in case models zip back into the original thinking, It is always key to hone in on consistency with forecast models, especially when dealing with tropical entities.

Isaac still has some things going against him that are so far, thankfully, keeping him from strengthening much. The forward speed, dry air intrusion, and some Southerly wind shear have all been impeding on Isaac's development on his journey through the tropical Atlantic thus far. However, as he pulls away from the Florida Keys overnight, he will certainly be in an environment that will be more than favorable for further strengthening. Most of the Gulf of Mexico is an area of high oceanic heating content right now, though not on the levels as it has been in some previous years. Thus, the official forecast calls for strengthening & we should have Hurricane Isaac sometime late Monday. Modest strengthening is the key word here it would appear. The intensity forecast calls for a category 2 at landfall, and this is plausible. However, forecasting intensity is always a harrowing challenge, and it could be stronger than that if all the ingredients come together right over Isaac. It could also just as easily stay a weaker system, and only be a category 1 at landfall just the same. As important as it is to try and figure out intensity, it is more important that you don't focus just on the black line in the official forecast. This is a large storm, and it will affect a wide area regardless of where it goes.

Speaking of where it goes....this is looking more like a Louisiana storm. This should be the state's most significant storm since Hurricane Ike & Gustav in 2008, even though Ike actually made landfall in Texas. You remember what it did to SW Louisiana. The latest official forecast track shows landfall near Pass Christian or Bay St. Louis, MS early Wednesday morning as a category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. However, I believe, given the recent trends of the most reliable models the official track will be shunted further West & ultimately end up somewhere in Louisiana. It seems most likely to me that landfall will occur late Tuesday/early Wednesday between the Mouth of the Mississippi River & Morgan City. SE Louisiana seems like the bullseye at this point. Though, I should mention here, while the most reliable American model (GFS) is a left-biased model, it has also been the best performing model this season & can't be ignored. The GFS track shows a formidable hurricane approaching the SE coast near Grand Isle or Barataria Bay Wednesday morning, and then sliding NW essentially paralleling the coast, and eventually moving completely inland over SW Louisiana with the circulation center passing near or over Lake Charles Wednesday evening. If that tracks verifies, then the Lake Area will certainly experience strong tropical storm conditions, and depending on how fast the storm moves & how fast it weakens, hurricane conditions are possible. On the other hand, the European model (ECWMF) has landfall in the vicinity of Mobile on Wednesday & as a stronger category 3 or 4 storm. One historical note here, Wednesday is the 29th, and that is the date of expected landfall. It will be 7 years to the day since Hurricane Katrina completely devastated SE Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The NHC has basically taken an average of these models & split it down the middle with landfall in the aforementioned area. The worst of the weather with Isaac should be from Lower Acadiana on towards New Orleans. Keep in mind, the forecast that I produce below will be subject to change. I would be surprised if the forecast track isn't shifted further Westward tonight, and I would also expect additional watches/warnings to be issued either with the 10p.m. advisory or the 4a.m. advisory. As it stands right now, Hurricane Warnings are hoisted from Morgan City to Destin, FL. An inland Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Baton Rouge Metropolitan Area as well.

Now, I want to briefly discuss what is going on here...As in why the big shift in the models? We have been under the influence of high pressure for the better part of the last now. It has come and gone all summer, as we have been back and forth between very wet or very dry. Our original thinking was that a late summer trough digging into the Mid-West would dip down far enough along the East Coast, and tug Isaac Northward towards the Florida Panhandle with the ridge holding firm across the Northern Gulf. However, the other possible scenario was that the trough wouldn't dig as far, and the ridge would begin to weaken across the Northern Gulf, and if the system was weaker it may result in a further Westward track. Last week, all models were consistently opting for the first scenario, so that forecast seemed logical. However, models begin to diverge at the end of the week leaving us with an unusually high risk of uncertain even with all the meteorological knowledge and understanding. At first, I was rather reluctant to shy away from the Florida Panhandle solution, but when the consistency returned on Saturday with the models shifting Westward there simply was no choice. I feel we are getting close to the time now when looking at models won't matter so much. It will soon by just a matter of going by storm behavior to try and nail down this forecast.

My official forecast will call for Tropical Storm conditions to be experienced across all of SW Louisiana with hurricane conditions possible towards Lafayette & New Iberia. Besides wind, rain will be the issue & whoever is to the right (East) of the center of circulation (eye) will likely receive upwards of a foot of rain, perhaps more in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. There will be a storm surge as well to the right of the center & let's not forget about the tornado threat as well. Tornadoes are always possible with a tropical cyclone on the North and East side. Initially, there won't be much weather at all in the Lake Area as we will remain on the better side of the storm. It wouldn't be until Wednesday morning that we would see any effects, maybe some extreme outer rain bands Tuesday evening or overnight Tuesday. Winds will noticeably increase as the day progresses Tuesday, but we'll have an offshore wind, so the air will actually be a little drier. North winds around 20-30 mph are expected for Tuesday, with winds increasing into the 35-50 mph range for Wednesday based on the current forecast. As I have said, I do believe they'll be a bit higher than that in the Lake Area, but I will play it conservative for now based on the current NHC forecast. Also, 2-5" of rain is possible across SW Louisiana, a little more towards Acadiana. The tornado threat may be non-existent here unless something like the GFS track comes to fruition. Tide levels will likely rise at least 1-2', but surge should not be much of an issue at this time in Cameron Parish based on this forecast. All in all this will be a close call, if it doesn't end up being a direct hit. I will have my official forecast outlined for you shortly, but first it is prudent to look at some model guidance here. I also want to include the latest satellite & radar data, and then I will conclude with the official forecast track from the NHC.


Let's first take a look at the latest satellite imagery. There you see Isaac off the SW Florida Coast.



You can see the center of circulation on the Key West, FL radar. A link is provided.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


Here are the latest tropical model runs.







We have the new advisory as of 10p.m. hot off the presses from the National Hurricane Center. As I expected, it has shifted further West once again, but still not as far as I think it will ultimately be. It just represents the trend. The official track takes Isaac inland between Grand Isle and Buras and right over New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain and then over the Northshore into Mississippi as a decaying storm Thursday. Landfall is still forecast to be late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as a category 2 storm. Notice, that everyone from Lake Charles Eastward is now in the cone of error. There has been no change to the Hurricane Warnings as of yet. Here are the specifics.

Tropical Storm Isaac...10p.m. Sunday, August 26, 2012

Latitude: 24.2 N

Longitude: 82.9 W

This is about 75 miles WSW of Key West, FL & roughly 605 miles SE of New Orleans.

*A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to Destin, FL. Watches/Warnings will likely be extended Westward & more than likely include SW Louisiana early Monday. (the 4.a.m. advisory).

Winds: 65 mph w/ higher gusts. Isaac has strengthened little today, but a slow strengthening process is expected to begin Monday & Isaac may become a category 1 hurricane late Monday. Isaac is forecast to be a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds at landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 205 miles mainly to the NE of the center. Tropical storm force winds are still being experienced across the Florida Keys & lower South Florida.

Movement: WNW @ 14 mph. The WNW motion should continue through tonight into Monday w/ a gradual turn to the NW expected during the next 24 hours along w/ a reduction in forward speed. It will approach the Northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday with landfall expected likely somewhere in coastal Louisiana late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Pressure: 993 mb. or 29.32"

Tropical Storm force winds will approach the Louisiana coast late Monday & hurricane conditions will begin sometime on Tuesday spreading NW across South Louisiana it would appear Tuesday night into Wednesday.





Now, based on all of this here is my official forecast.

*This forecast is highly subject to change.*

Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light E wind.

Monday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. High 95. Winds increasing as the day goes on. NE wind 10-20 mph & gusty.

Monday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of tropical showers. Low 73.  Breezy. NE wind 15-25 mph & gusty.

Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of tropical squalls. High 88. Tropical Storm conditions possible by the evening hours. NE to E wind 20-30 mph & gusty.

Tuesday Night...Tropical Storm conditions possible. Mostly Cloudy with a 60% chance of tropical squalls from rain bands associated with Isaac. Low 77. NE wind 30-40 mph with higher gusts.

Wednesday...Cloudy & Windy w/ Tropical Storm/Hurricane conditions possible. High 86. East wind 40-50 mph w/ higher gusts. Chance of rain 80%.

Wednesday Night...Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane conditions possible. Tropical rain squalls & very windy. Low 80. SE wind 30-45 mph w/ higher gusts. Rainfall totals could exceed 5" from Tuesday into Thursday.

Thursday...Conditions improving but still Cloudy & Windy with lingering tropical squalls. High 88. SE wind 20-40 mph w/ higher gusts. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 76. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday...Back to normal. Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SE wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 93. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. SE wind less than 5 mph.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 94. SE wind 10 mph.


Stay tuned for more...my next blog update will be Monday evening.

Have a good night, try to get some rest & God bless!
-DM-

Detailed Discussion on Devious Debby....

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Please be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...An' Boudreaux say it sure is hot! Poo yi! It is indeed that, as high temperatures soared to near the century mark at many locations today including here in Lake Charles. We have seen this before haven't we? This is shades of last summer, as a large anti-cyclone has built in across the Northern Gulf coast states extending into parts of the Mid West. This has been the hottest stretch of weather by far this summer, and it will last for at least a couple more days before we transition back to the usual summer scenario by the latter half of the work week. Along with this upper level ridge providing the heat wave, the other main player in our forecast this week will be Tropical Storm Debby. What is to become of Debby will ultimately dictate what happens with our weather. I will delineate explicit details and also incorporate exactly what to expect with our weather across SW Louisiana.

The models had been on to something for a couple weeks hinting at tropical development in the Gulf between the 20th and 30th. Lo and behold, it came true. The only sure thing at this point is the fact that there is a storm in the Gulf. Debby, the season's 4th named storm already, is a disorganized and devious demon. June 23, is the earliest date that the "D" storm has ever developed in the Atlantic basin. Historical notes aside, let's get into some forecasting. As is so often the case with a disorganized tropical system, the forecast track can change rapidly, and that has certainly been the case with Debby. Early on, the majority of the global models were clustered on a landfalling tropical system in South Texas later this week. The outlier models (GFS) were discounted for the most part. This was given the fact that a large mid-latitude anti-cyclone was building in across the Northern Gulf Coast, and that an early summer East Coast trough was digging SE from Canada down into the Mid-Atlantic. That set forth two possible scenarios for Debby. A greater confidence was placed on a solution that would take the storm into Texas as we expected Debby to feel the influence of the large high pressure system, and be steered around its Southern periphery into the Rio Grande Valley area. The other scenario was that the cyclone would travel N and then NE into Florida as it felt influence from the deepening East Coast trough. This solution was primarily discounted at first based on the idea that the ridge would simply be too strong to result in a prolonged Northward component.

However, as we all know from experience, these tropical systems have a mind of their own. Debby is certainly being no different. We've seen the forecast track shift by several hundred miles in less than 24 hours. Last night, Debby was still forecasted to hit the Corpus Christi, Texas area by Thursday as a category 1 hurricane, and now here we are Sunday evening, and the forecast track is nearly straight North into the Big Bend area of Florida. A slow forward speed is projected through mid-week as the steering currents nearly collapse as the storm will be caught between the big ridge over us and the advancing trough. It is no more than 150 miles South of the Florida Gulf Coast. It may only crawl towards the coast, therefore, a landfall is not predicted to occur until Wednesday. The threat to Louisiana from Debby is lessened by a big margin, but we certainly can't be entirely sure that we are home free just yet. A good rule of thumb I like to use is, keep an eye on all storms until they pass North of the 30 degree latitude. Lake Charles lies right along 30 N. There is still an outside chance that Debby will take on a Westward motion at some point over the next couple of days. This could occur especially if the weakness currently over Florida dissipates as the ridge becomes even stronger. This seems unlikely at this point for a couple of reasons. 1) The close proximity to land. At this point the disorganized tropical cyclone has created some momentum in its forward progress towards the Big Bend of Florida, and beings that it is lingering just offshore at this point, it is conceivable that it will continue to slowly ride the created weakness and drift Northward to a point in which gravitational friction from the land will help steer it inland. 2) The center of circulation may try to
reform underneath the deep convection located to the N and E of the center, thus putting it even closer to land. Even if it makes a left-hand turn, the closer it is the coast, would mean that it wouldn't have much of a chance to develop further to become a more formidable storm due to friction of land interaction once again. Also, if it makes the West turn it would move inland in the Mississippi Delta region, and then by the time it moved into the forecast area it would basically just be a weakening low that was raining itself out. Our neighbors to the East in Florida are going to get pounded by high waves & seas and plenty of heavy rainfall with a high flooding potential along with gusty winds & isolated tornadoes for the next several days.

The other question is how strong will Debby be when it makes landfall? It is currently holding steady with 60 mph winds which is certainly a formidable tropical storm, but it remains disorganized with a good deal of SW shear feeding into the storm keeping all of the deep convection well away from the low-level center. A large upper level low over the NW Gulf of Mexico is the culprit. Dry air is also entraining (wrapping) into the center of the storm, choking it off on its West side. This will likely continue to inhibit intensification for at least the next 24 hours. The shear is gradually forecast to relax, and if Debby remains offshore it may slowly strengthen by Tuesday. It is forecast to make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds when it does so on Wednesday. However, it may well be a weaker system if it continues to ingest dry air or it might be a little stronger, and be able to attain category 1 hurricane status if the shear relaxes allowing for an ideal environment for further strengthening. Both the forecast track and intensity will continue to be a low confidence forecast for the time being. Based on the current forecast, I believe the center of circulation will slowly trudge towards the Florida Panhandle and make landfall Wednesday as a strong tropical storm in between St. George Island and Apalachicola.

The bottom line here is that as of this time, Debby will have virtually no effect on this forecast area. Other than, a general drying of the atmosphere for the next couple days due to increased subsidence on the backside of the storm, we will experience no weather from Debby based on the current forecast. Of course, further revisions to the forecast are highly possible over the next couple of days if Debby deviates further once again. It is safe to stay the course for now, and go with what the National Hurricane Center has laid out. The forecast reasoning makes sense, though it still is a low confidence forecast at this point. My gut feeling says the GFS may ultimately end up being correct, so much for throwing it out, I guess. So, now that I have waxed eloquently about Debby, what does this mean for our actual forecast?

We will continue to see a pattern of persistence around these parts through mid-week. Hot and dry will be the name of the game with highs generally running near 100 and morning lows in the mid 70s. The air will be a bit drier with an offshore flow in place around the backside of Debby, so this will help cut down on oppressive heat index values. There will be no mention of rain through Tuesday, but I'll add a slight 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms for Wednesday just in case, some wrap around moisture causes one or two storms to pop up during the late afternoon and evening hours especially towards Acadiana. We will gradually transition back to a normal summer pattern by week's end as Debby winds down and ultimately dissipates over the SE U.S., and the ridge retreats to the West. Temperatures will trend back towards normal in the low to mid 90s, humidity values will increase to seasonal values, and we'll insert the usual 20-30% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms for the Friday-Sunday time frame. We should round out June in a sate of normalcy barring any unexpected changes in Debby's track. Looking long range briefly, the summer status quo should continue through the July 4th holiday barring any other developing tropical activity. It is nice to have a normal summer for once. In closing, I'll note that even in a normal summer, we always have at least one or two heat waves. We don't always flirt with 100 degree weather especially along the I-10 corridor, but we usually do experience at least mid 90s over the course of the long, hot summer. We're already in much better shape compared to last summer, when it seemed like it never rained, and even the devil was sighing!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   75/99  76/98  76/98   0 0 0 0 0 20
CAM  78/93  80/92  79/92  0 0 0 0 0 20
LFT    75/98  75/97  76/97  0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA   76/97  76/96  76/95  0 0 0 0 0 20
AEX   73/101  74/101  74/100  0 0 0 0 0 20

POE   73/101  73/101  74/100  0 0 0 0 0 20
BPT   76/101  76/100  76/99  0 0 0 0 0 20
JAS    74/102  74/101  74/100  0 0 0 0 0 20

Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 75. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 99. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Monday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light NE wind.

Tuesday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 98. NE wind 15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Continued Very Hot. High 98. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light NE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Not as Hot. High 96. NE to E wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light E wind.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 95. SE wind 10 mph.


Monday 6/25/12 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear


Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3


9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 90

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny


Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 97

3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy












Temp: 99
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 13
H.I.: 104

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy












Temp: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 102

9p.m.


Weather: Clear

Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
H.I.: 90



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday
6-25-12

Low: 75
High: 99
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
6-26-12
Watching Debby!












Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Wednesday
6-27-12
55 year anniversary of Hurricane Audrey
Watching Debby!













Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 20%
Wind: NE 15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Thursday
6-28-12











Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: NE to E 10
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


Friday
6-29-12











Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
6-30-12











Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
7-1-12











Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Tropical Update...

We have gotten off to a fast start for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Of course, as mentioned in the discussion, we have a hot item to discuss, Debby, the season's fourth named storm. Since I have already, discussed this storm in detail, I will simply just post the official information from the NHC including graphics and brief notes about the system itself. Please refer to the forecast discussion for complete information on Debby.

Tropical Storm Debby

10p.m. Sunday, June 24, 2012

...Florida Taking the Brunt of Debby...

Latitude: 28.3 N

Longitude: 85.9 W

This places the center of Debby about 110 miles SSW of Apalachicola, Florida or 200 miles ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. Debby has not strengthened since early this morning, and any strengthening will only be gradual over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds are occurring to the N and E of the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 200 miles from the center of circulation. Venice, FL recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph with a gust to 67 mph. Debby is forecast to only slowly crawl towards the Florida Panhandle, and make landfall Thursday night between Panama City and Apalachicola.

Movement: Stationary. Debby may remain stationary for much of the day on Monday before slowly moving Northward thereafter. Debby is trapped in an area with little or no steering currents. The official forecast track of Debby remains highly uncertain due to the weak steering currents.

Pressure: 991 mb. or 29.26"

Watches/Warnings...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Gulf Coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border Eastward to the Suwannee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Suwannee River, Florida to Englewood, Florida.

Florida will continue to take the brunt of Debby as long as the current forecast holds. Rainfall totals up to 15" are possible in parts of the peninsula along w/ isolated tornadoes through Tuesday. Rainfall could total over 25" in isolated areas.

Here is the latest forecast track & model guidance for Debby.

The next advisory on Debby will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1a.m. CDT Monday followed by the next complete advisory & forecast track at 4a.m. CDT Monday. My next update will be right here on the blog around 10p.m. Monday.


Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Tuesday.


...Marine Forecast...

*Marine interests should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Debby located over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.*

Tonight...South winds around 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Monday...Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Monday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Tuesday...North winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 feet.

Tuesday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday...West winds around 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.

Thursday...South winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.

Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.

...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:             12:51a.m.           2:05p.m.              
High:                          7:53a.m.       


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    169.32'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Sunday, June 24, 2012



Low:               76
Normal Low:  74
Record Low:   60-1912
High:               99
Normal High:  90
Record High:   103-1915

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:               3.60"
Normal Month to Date:  5.43"
Year to Date:                 35.47"
Normal Year to Date:    26.31"
Record:                           2.50"- 1988

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2011)

Low:    76
High:    90
Rain:    Trace

5 Years Ago (2007)

Low:    76
High:   89
Rain:   Trace


10 Years Ago (2002)

Low:     69
High:    81
Rain:   1.30"


Sunrise Monday:   6:13a.m.
Sunset  Monday:   8:18p.m.


Hunting Times:

5:43a.m.-8:48p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Wednesday June 27

Full Moon- Tuesday July 3

Last Quarter- Wednesday July 11

New Moon- Thursday July 19


Stay tuned for more on Debby! Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-

Back in the Saddle Again After a Long Hiatus...String of Marvelous March Weather Rolls On...

Sunday, March 25, 2012


Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Please scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

It has been a long time coming now, since I've posted here. I've been so busy for the last several months. Between work, the holidays and my wedding and the honeymoon and getting settled in with married life, it has been a busy time. It has been the best time of my life, and I love my wife and being married. Maybe, later on this week or in the near future I will have a special blog post about the wedding and the honeymoon including pictures. Lucy & I are doing great, and we thank everyone for your support and prayers, and for attending the wedding. Anyway, that being said, it is time to re-start the blog and provide SW Louisiana with the most accurate and dependable weather coverage it expects & deserves, so without further adieu let's get it to it. The video blogs will also return on a regular basis.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...My! My! My! The weather has been as beautiful as my wife lately! We need every bit of this as well with the recent flooding rains via the previous pesky Pacific perturbation from early last week. We have had quite a wet start to 2012 with over 20" in most locations. Officially, here in Lake Charles we've collected 24.00" to date since January 1, and that gives us a surplus of 12.35". Quite a switch from the two previously drought stricken years. Of course, as seems to typically be the case in Louisiana, it is feast or famine...we've gone from not enough to too much. We have gone from one of the worst droughts in our history to significant ongoing river flooding in the Sabine & Calcasieu River basins. I will have more on that shortly.

Since Thursday, we have had nearly perfect weather. The only blemish has been late night/early morning patchy fog thanks to the residual moisture leftover from last week's rains. Temperatures are still a bit out of whack for late March, but I don't think anyone is complaining thanks to the very dry air in place. There's not been a cloud to be found for 4 days now, and temperatures have been running in the low to mid 50s for lows and generally the low to mid 80s for highs. Normally, we should have lows in the lower 50s and highs in the mid 70s at this point in the year. This weekend has been one of the best all year, and this is arguably our nicest prolonged stretch of weather this year. High pressure ridges across the entire Gulf South extending back into the Great Plains, and this pattern will hold firm for at least a couple more days before we encounter any sort of changes. Another refreshing night is in store with crystal clear skies. Go out and look at the stars! Temperatures will once again drop into the comfortable 50s, at or just above normal for this time of year. Wall to wall sunshine will be abound once again for Monday with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s. A light offshore flow will continue with winds generally between NE and E at or less than 5 mph. The marvelous March weather will be with us through Tuesday with a similar temperature scheme, however, the only difference then will be the inception of a slight onshore flow as the core of the surface high pressure slides off to the East.

Dry weather prevails through at least Thursday, however, the onshore flow becomes more established. This will mean an increase in humidity, as well as minimum temperatures. High temperatures will likely come down a few degrees, mainly because of the stronger marine influences. The Gulf waters are still on the cool side as we near the end of March, so that will work to offset daytime heating potential. High temperatures will likely still be at or just above the 80 degree mark. Rain chances remain not existent through Thursday. Our next Pacific storm system will be advancing across the country at this time, and is scheduled to influence our weather in the Friday/Saturday time frame. However, to what extent remains to be seen at this juncture. Certainly, there is enough evidence from models to insert rain chances into the forecast for Friday into Saturday. At this time, though, I won't too carried away given the lack of consistency. Patchy fog may once again be an issue by week's end with the deeper moisture in place. Cloudiness will continue increase on Friday, and by afternoon the chance for showers & thunderstorms will be in the forecast as lift increases out ahead of the advancing boundary.

While the chance of showers & thunderstorms should return to the forecast at week's end, at this time, it doesn't appear that we will have a severe weather threat or a prolonged rain event at this time. That is certainly good news, as it is likely that the ongoing river flooding will continue for much of this week. The upper level flow will be much better this time around, so that it appears this front will have no trouble sweeping through the area sometime early Saturday. In the pre-frontal environment scattered showers & thunderstorms will likely continue overnight Friday with a deep onshore flow & mild temperatures. This will be replaced during the course of the day on Saturday as the front pushes through the area, and a drier and somewhat cooler air mass takes over. Skies should quickly clear out by Saturday evening as Pacific high pressure works into the forecast area. March may just go out like a lamb. This sets stage for, at this time, what looks to be a beautiful Palm Sunday across SW Louisiana. Temperatures will be very similar to where they are right now it would appear with not a whole lot of cooling expected. There is still some idea that some overrunning moisture may be in place, that would keep cloudiness and a chance of showers in place for the end of the forecast period, but I will be optimistic at this point. A brief look at the extended shows more Springlike weather just in time for Spring Break next week. We should be line for another storm system sometime before Easter weekend, but of course, exact strength and timing at this point is simply speculation. Have a great week!
 
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   56/83  59/82  61/82  0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM  59/80  61/78  63/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT    55/83  58/83  61/82  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA   56/83  59/83  62/81  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT    58/84  61/83  62/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS     53/84  55/83  57/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX   53/84  54/83  55/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE    53/84  54/83  56/83  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear. Low 56. Light North wind.

Monday...Sunny. High 83. NE to E wind 5 mph.

Monday Night...Clear. Light Patchy Fog possible after midnight. Low 59. Light ESE wind.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 82. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear w/ Patchy Fog possible. Low 61. Light SE wind.

Wednesday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 82. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear w/ Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 63. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Patchy Early Morning Fog and/or Low Clouds, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 81. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog and/or Low Clouds after midnight. Low 64. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Patchy Fog, possibly locally dense early to mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Humid, & Breezy w/ a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 80. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.


Monday 3/26/12 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3

Noon

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 4


3p.m.

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 3


9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday

3-26-12

Low: 56
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/E 0-5


Tuesday
3-27-12

Low: 59
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Wednesday
3-28-12

Low: 61
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Thursday
3-29-12


Low: 63
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15

Friday
3-30-12

Low: 64
High: 80
Rain: 40% PM
Wind: SSE 15-20
 

Saturday
3-31-12

Low: 60
High: 78
Rain: 30% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20



Sunday
4-1-12

Low: 55
High: 81
Rain:  0%
Wind: N 10



...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 foot.

Monday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.

Monday Night...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

...River Flooding...

In this section, I will take a brief look at the flooding along the area rivers. Flooding is ongoing in the Calcasieu, Sabine, Ouiska Chitto, Vermilion, & Neches River basins.

The worst of the flooding is occurring along the Sabine & Calcasieu River watersheds. Moderate flooding is occurring along the Calcasieu River from Lake Charles northward to Glenmora. The river is in flood at Salt Water Barrier, Old Town Bay, Sam Houston Jones State Park, Kinder, Oberlin, Oakdale, & Glenmora. The Sabine River is in flood south of Toledo Bend Dam including Deweyville and Bon Wier.

Here some official river stages:

Calcasieu River @ Salt Water Barrier....Flood Stage...4'....Current Stage...4.2'...Expected Crest....5.5' Monday 3/26. Minor to Moderate Flooding.
-Flooding of River Road in North Lake Charles occurs. It should fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon.

Calcasieu River @ Old Town Bay...Flood State...4'...Current Stage...6.7'...Expected Crest...7.8' Thursday 3/29. Moderate flood.
-Goos Ferry Road is impassable and the lower end of Pickrel Lane is flooded.

Calcasieu River @ Sam Houston Jones State Park in Moss Bluff...Flood Stage...4'...Current Stage...6.6'...The river has crested at this location & is expected to drop below flood state by Tuesday. Minor to moderate flooding occurring at SHJSP.
-Flooding of recreational areas in the park are under water, including the playground & campsites nearest the river. Portions of S. Perkins Ferry Road become impassable.

Calcasieu River @ Kinder...Flood Stage...16'...Current Stage...18.2'...Expected Crest...21' Wednesday morning 3/28. Major flooding will occur at this location.
-Lowland sections of Old Pump Road, Kinder Cemetery Road, & Nevils Bluff Road will flood.

Calcasieu River @ Oberlin...Flood Stage...13'...Current Stage...19.8'...Expected Crest...20.5' by tomorrow afternoon Monday 3/26. Major flooding is occurring at this location.
-Secondary roads & homes near the river are flooded. Reed's Bridge Road upstream of the river from Oberlin will flood.

Calcasieu River @ Oakdale...Flood Stage...12'...Current Stage...15.6'...The river has crested @ this location & will maintain a slow fall through the week w/ minor flooding ongoing.
-Low secondary roads near the river will flood  & several homes in close proximity to the river will flood.

Calcasieu River @ Glenmora...Flood Stage...12'....Current Stage...14.6'...The river has crested in Glenmora as well. Minor flooding is ongoing.
-Some roads near Glenmora will flood. This includes Strothers Crossing Road near the community of Calcasieu and Price Crossing Road near Hineston. These roads will have 2-3' of water over them and are subject to being closed. Forested areas near the river will be flooded.

Sabine River @ Deweyville...Flood Stage...24'...Current Stage...26.9'...Expected crest...27' Monday morning 3/26. Moderate flooding is ongoing.
-Deweyville Schools may be impacted because of flooded bus routes.

Sabine River @ Bon Wier...Flood Stage...30'...Current Stage...31.8'....The river has crested at this location. Minor flooding is ongoing.
Lowland flooding between Merryville & Bon Wier is occurring, & a few roads in SW Vernon Parish will have water over them.

For more on the river flood situation, please go to the National Weather Service Lake Charles web page:

www.srh.noaa.gov/lch



...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:                          11:44a.m.               
High:              6:42a.m.           4:25p.m.                


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    171.32'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Sunday, March 25, 2012



Low:                57
Normal Low:   53
Record Low:   30-1915
High:               86
Normal High:  74
Record High:   90-1910

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:               7.19"
Normal Month to Date:  2.96"
Year to Date:                 24.00"
Normal Year to Date:    11.65"
Record:                           4.32"- 1943

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2011)

Low:     59
High:    79
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2007)

Low:    62
High:   79
Rain:    0.01"


10 Years Ago (2002)

Low:     60
High:    80
Rain:    Trace


Sunrise Monday:   7:09a.m.
Sunset  Monday:   7:28p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:39a.m.-7:58p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Friday March 30

Full Moon- Friday April 6

Last Quarter- Friday April 13

New Moon- Saturday April 21


Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-