Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Please be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...An' Boudreaux say it sure is hot! Poo yi! It is indeed that, as high temperatures soared to near the century mark at many locations today including here in Lake Charles. We have seen this before haven't we? This is shades of last summer, as a large anti-cyclone has built in across the Northern Gulf coast states extending into parts of the Mid West. This has been the hottest stretch of weather by far this summer, and it will last for at least a couple more days before we transition back to the usual summer scenario by the latter half of the work week. Along with this upper level ridge providing the heat wave, the other main player in our forecast this week will be Tropical Storm Debby. What is to become of Debby will ultimately dictate what happens with our weather. I will delineate explicit details and also incorporate exactly what to expect with our weather across SW Louisiana.
The models had been on to something for a couple weeks hinting at tropical development in the Gulf between the 20th and 30th. Lo and behold, it came true. The only sure thing at this point is the fact that there is a storm in the Gulf. Debby, the season's 4th named storm already, is a disorganized and devious demon. June 23, is the earliest date that the "D" storm has ever developed in the Atlantic basin. Historical notes aside, let's get into some forecasting. As is so often the case with a disorganized tropical system, the forecast track can change rapidly, and that has certainly been the case with Debby. Early on, the majority of the global models were clustered on a landfalling tropical system in South Texas later this week. The outlier models (GFS) were discounted for the most part. This was given the fact that a large mid-latitude anti-cyclone was building in across the Northern Gulf Coast, and that an early summer East Coast trough was digging SE from Canada down into the Mid-Atlantic. That set forth two possible scenarios for Debby. A greater confidence was placed on a solution that would take the storm into Texas as we expected Debby to feel the influence of the large high pressure system, and be steered around its Southern periphery into the Rio Grande Valley area. The other scenario was that the cyclone would travel N and then NE into Florida as it felt influence from the deepening East Coast trough. This solution was primarily discounted at first based on the idea that the ridge would simply be too strong to result in a prolonged Northward component.
However, as we all know from experience, these tropical systems have a mind of their own. Debby is certainly being no different. We've seen the forecast track shift by several hundred miles in less than 24 hours. Last night, Debby was still forecasted to hit the Corpus Christi, Texas area by Thursday as a category 1 hurricane, and now here we are Sunday evening, and the forecast track is nearly straight North into the Big Bend area of Florida. A slow forward speed is projected through mid-week as the steering currents nearly collapse as the storm will be caught between the big ridge over us and the advancing trough. It is no more than 150 miles South of the Florida Gulf Coast. It may only crawl towards the coast, therefore, a landfall is not predicted to occur until Wednesday. The threat to Louisiana from Debby is lessened by a big margin, but we certainly can't be entirely sure that we are home free just yet. A good rule of thumb I like to use is, keep an eye on all storms until they pass North of the 30 degree latitude. Lake Charles lies right along 30 N. There is still an outside chance that Debby will take on a Westward motion at some point over the next couple of days. This could occur especially if the weakness currently over Florida dissipates as the ridge becomes even stronger. This seems unlikely at this point for a couple of reasons. 1) The close proximity to land. At this point the disorganized tropical cyclone has created some momentum in its forward progress towards the Big Bend of Florida, and beings that it is lingering just offshore at this point, it is conceivable that it will continue to slowly ride the created weakness and drift Northward to a point in which gravitational friction from the land will help steer it inland. 2) The center of circulation may try to
reform underneath the deep convection located to the N and E of the center, thus putting it even closer to land. Even if it makes a left-hand turn, the closer it is the coast, would mean that it wouldn't have much of a chance to develop further to become a more formidable storm due to friction of land interaction once again. Also, if it makes the West turn it would move inland in the Mississippi Delta region, and then by the time it moved into the forecast area it would basically just be a weakening low that was raining itself out. Our neighbors to the East in Florida are going to get pounded by high waves & seas and plenty of heavy rainfall with a high flooding potential along with gusty winds & isolated tornadoes for the next several days.
The other question is how strong will Debby be when it makes landfall? It is currently holding steady with 60 mph winds which is certainly a formidable tropical storm, but it remains disorganized with a good deal of SW shear feeding into the storm keeping all of the deep convection well away from the low-level center. A large upper level low over the NW Gulf of Mexico is the culprit. Dry air is also entraining (wrapping) into the center of the storm, choking it off on its West side. This will likely continue to inhibit intensification for at least the next 24 hours. The shear is gradually forecast to relax, and if Debby remains offshore it may slowly strengthen by Tuesday. It is forecast to make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds when it does so on Wednesday. However, it may well be a weaker system if it continues to ingest dry air or it might be a little stronger, and be able to attain category 1 hurricane status if the shear relaxes allowing for an ideal environment for further strengthening. Both the forecast track and intensity will continue to be a low confidence forecast for the time being. Based on the current forecast, I believe the center of circulation will slowly trudge towards the Florida Panhandle and make landfall Wednesday as a strong tropical storm in between St. George Island and Apalachicola.
The bottom line here is that as of this time, Debby will have virtually no effect on this forecast area. Other than, a general drying of the atmosphere for the next couple days due to increased subsidence on the backside of the storm, we will experience no weather from Debby based on the current forecast. Of course, further revisions to the forecast are highly possible over the next couple of days if Debby deviates further once again. It is safe to stay the course for now, and go with what the National Hurricane Center has laid out. The forecast reasoning makes sense, though it still is a low confidence forecast at this point. My gut feeling says the GFS may ultimately end up being correct, so much for throwing it out, I guess. So, now that I have waxed eloquently about Debby, what does this mean for our actual forecast?
We will continue to see a pattern of persistence around these parts through mid-week. Hot and dry will be the name of the game with highs generally running near 100 and morning lows in the mid 70s. The air will be a bit drier with an offshore flow in place around the backside of Debby, so this will help cut down on oppressive heat index values. There will be no mention of rain through Tuesday, but I'll add a slight 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms for Wednesday just in case, some wrap around moisture causes one or two storms to pop up during the late afternoon and evening hours especially towards Acadiana. We will gradually transition back to a normal summer pattern by week's end as Debby winds down and ultimately dissipates over the SE U.S., and the ridge retreats to the West. Temperatures will trend back towards normal in the low to mid 90s, humidity values will increase to seasonal values, and we'll insert the usual 20-30% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms for the Friday-Sunday time frame. We should round out June in a sate of normalcy barring any unexpected changes in Debby's track. Looking long range briefly, the summer status quo should continue through the July 4th holiday barring any other developing tropical activity. It is nice to have a normal summer for once. In closing, I'll note that even in a normal summer, we always have at least one or two heat waves. We don't always flirt with 100 degree weather especially along the I-10 corridor, but we usually do experience at least mid 90s over the course of the long, hot summer. We're already in much better shape compared to last summer, when it seemed like it never rained, and even the devil was sighing!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 75/99 76/98 76/98 0 0 0 0 0 20
CAM 78/93 80/92 79/92 0 0 0 0 0 20
LFT 75/98 75/97 76/97 0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA 76/97 76/96 76/95 0 0 0 0 0 20
AEX 73/101 74/101 74/100 0 0 0 0 0 20
BPT 76/101 76/100 76/99 0 0 0 0 0 20
JAS 74/102 74/101 74/100 0 0 0 0 0 20
Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 75. NE wind 5-10 mph.
Monday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 99. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light NE wind.
Tuesday...Mostly Sunny & Very Hot. High 98. NE wind 15 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Continued Very Hot. High 98. NE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light NE wind.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. Not as Hot. High 96. NE to E wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light E wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 95. SE wind 10 mph.
Monday 6/25/12 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 90
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 97
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy
Temp: 99
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 13
H.I.: 104
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy
Temp: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 102
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
H.I.: 90
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
6-25-12
Low: 75
High: 99
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Tuesday
6-26-12
Watching Debby!
Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
6-27-12
55 year anniversary of Hurricane Audrey
Watching Debby!
Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 20%
Wind: NE 15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
6-28-12
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 20%
Wind: NE to E 10
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
6-29-12
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
6-30-12
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
7-1-12
Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropical Update...
We have gotten off to a fast start for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. Of course, as mentioned in the discussion, we have a hot item to discuss, Debby, the season's fourth named storm. Since I have already, discussed this storm in detail, I will simply just post the official information from the NHC including graphics and brief notes about the system itself. Please refer to the forecast discussion for complete information on Debby.
Tropical Storm Debby
10p.m. Sunday, June 24, 2012
...Florida Taking the Brunt of Debby...
Latitude: 28.3 N
Longitude: 85.9 W
This places the center of Debby about 110 miles SSW of Apalachicola, Florida or 200 miles ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. Debby has not strengthened since early this morning, and any strengthening will only be gradual over the next 48 hours. The strongest winds are occurring to the N and E of the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 200 miles from the center of circulation. Venice, FL recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph with a gust to 67 mph. Debby is forecast to only slowly crawl towards the Florida Panhandle, and make landfall Thursday night between Panama City and Apalachicola.
Movement: Stationary. Debby may remain stationary for much of the day on Monday before slowly moving Northward thereafter. Debby is trapped in an area with little or no steering currents. The official forecast track of Debby remains highly uncertain due to the weak steering currents.
Pressure: 991 mb. or 29.26"
Watches/Warnings...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Gulf Coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border Eastward to the Suwannee River, Florida.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Suwannee River, Florida to Englewood, Florida.
Florida will continue to take the brunt of Debby as long as the current forecast holds. Rainfall totals up to 15" are possible in parts of the peninsula along w/ isolated tornadoes through Tuesday. Rainfall could total over 25" in isolated areas.
Here is the latest forecast track & model guidance for Debby.
The next advisory on Debby will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1a.m. CDT Monday followed by the next complete advisory & forecast track at 4a.m. CDT Monday. My next update will be right here on the blog around 10p.m. Monday.
Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
*Marine interests should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Debby located over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.*
Tonight...South winds around 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday...Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Monday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday...North winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 feet.
Tuesday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday...West winds around 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Thursday...South winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 12:51a.m. 2:05p.m.
High: 7:53a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
169.32'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Low: 76
Normal Low: 74
Record Low: 60-1912
High: 99
Normal High: 90
Record High: 103-1915
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.60"
Normal Month to Date: 5.43"
Year to Date: 35.47"
Normal Year to Date: 26.31"
Record: 2.50"- 1988
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2011)
Low: 76
High: 90
Rain: Trace
5 Years Ago (2007)
Low: 76
High: 89
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2002)
Low: 69
High: 81
Rain: 1.30"
Sunrise Monday: 6:13a.m.
Sunset Monday: 8:18p.m.
Hunting Times:
5:43a.m.-8:48p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Wednesday June 27
Full Moon- Tuesday July 3
Last Quarter- Wednesday July 11
New Moon- Thursday July 19
Stay tuned for more on Debby! Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
No comments:
Post a Comment