Summer Scenario Rolls On...Drought Worsens...

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The extremely dry conditions of 2011 will persist for a while longer. As each day passes, we get deeper and deeper into drought conditions with much of the area in D5 or Extreme Drought conditions. Wednesday was another day of more of the same usual summer circumstances. It was hot & dry once again with virtually nothing in the way of scattered afternoon showers & storms. High temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices exceeding the 100 degree mark. This quiet weather will roll on tonight with very humid conditions expected under clear skies. Overnight lows will generally be at or above the mid June norms of the low to mid 70s. The warmest locations nearest the coast will likely struggle to fall below 80 with upper 70s at best. The controlling upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature, though it may weaken just a bit on Thursday to allow some isolated shower/thunderstorm activity to develop in the afternoon hours. However, anyone that does happen to get a visit from one of Mother Nature's natural air conditioners should consider themselves mighty lucky. Rain chances are too small to even mention in the official forecast for Thursday. Forecast highs should reach the mid to upper 90s once again. There will be the presence of an onshore breeze as usual, but that will do little to help keep it from being almost unbearable.

The ridge re-strengthens for Friday through early next week. Any hope for even an isolated storm or two will be non-existent. The drought will worsen as we lose between .25-.30" of soil moisture a day right now. Temperatures will continue to trend above normal for high temperatures with readings averaging the upper 90s through Monday. Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 70s with lower 80s possible near the coast due to increased marine influence. Afternoon heat indices will range in the 100-105 degrees each day. The afternoon sea breeze will be present, but with the strong capping ongoing in the upper levels it will do no more than produce the usual daily crop of fair weather cumulus clouds. Remember, to take extra precautions against the extremely hot temperatures, and against a strong June sun. Use plenty of sunscreen if venturing outdoors for long periods of time, and drink plenty of fluids to keep yourself hydrated. A nice swimming pool or just staying in the A/C may be the best course of action. Don't forget about dad on Sunday either with Father's Day! Also, remember with the persistent and worsening drought, a statewide burn ban remains in effect until further notice.

The persistent dry & hot forecast will be maintained through the end of the period on Wednesday, however, there are some signs that a better opportunity for rainfall may arise in the middle to latter portions of next week. Models indicate a weakness in the ridge developing across the Western Gulf, and the possibility of some tropical moisture allowing for an increased chance of showers & thunderstorms. This remains to be seen, and it is still too far away to say with any certainty that this will occur, so for the meantime rain chances will remain non-existent through the entire forecast period. High temperatures will continue to run from near normal to above normal in the 93-98 range, and morning lows will be in the 72-77 range. Expect skies to be Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy each day with little day to day variation through Wednesday. This forecast is strictly a temperature forecast to say the least. Every little bit helps when we're in such a deep drought, but overall even our usual scattering of afternoon showers & storms won't help to alleviate the drought conditions overall. It will take a rain event that lasts for 2-3 days and is a good soaker distributing several inches of rain across the entire area. There is no sign of such an occurrence anytime soon. If the trend continues, it is likely we won't have any fireworks this 4th of July.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   74/96  75/96  76/97  0 10 0 0 0 0
CAM  79/89  79/90  80/90  0 10 0 0 0 0
LFT    74/95  75/97  75/96  0 10 0 0 0 0
ARA   77/94  77/94  77/95  0 10 0 0 0 0
BPT    76/96  76/97  75/98  0 10 0 0 0 0
JAS     72/97  73/98  74/99  0 10 0 0 0 0
AEX   73/97  73/99  73/100  0 10 0 0 0 0
POE    73/96  74/98  74/100  0 10 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear. Low 74. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 96. South wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 75. Light SSE wind.

Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 96. South 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 97. SSW wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear. Low 75. Light South wind.

Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 97. SSW wind 10-15 mph.

Sunday Night...Clear. Low 76. Light South wind.

Monday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 98. SSW wind 10-15 mph.


Thursday 6/16/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 4

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: South 8

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 12
H.I.: 98

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 15
H.I.: 102

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 100

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
6-16-11

Low: 74
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105


Friday
6-17-11











Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105


Saturday
6-18-11

Low: 76
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 102-107


Sunday
6-19-11
Father's Day

Low: 75
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 103-108


Monday
6-20-11

Low: 76
High: 98
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 103-108


Tuesday
6-21-11
Summer Solstice

Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 102-107


Wednesday
6-22-11

Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 100-105


...Tropical Update...

All is quiet in the tropics as we begin the 3rd calendar week of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Tonight...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Sunday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Monday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.


...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:            10:41a.m.        10:10p.m.       
High:             6:00a.m.          2:10p.m.                  


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    163.34'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, June 15, 2011



Low:                76
Normal Low:   72
Record Low:    59-1933
High:                93
Normal High:   89
Record High:  100-1911

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                0.18"
Normal Month to Date:   3.14"
Year to Date:                 14.69"
Normal Year to Date:    25.18"
Record:                           6.00"- 1895

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:      76
High:     94
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     68
High:    92
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:     68
High:    87
Rain:    0.06"


Sunrise Thursday:   6:11a.m.
Sunset  Thursday:   8:16p.m.


Hunting Times:

5:41a.m.-8:46p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Wednesday June 15

Last Quarter- Thursday June 23

New Moon- Friday July 1

First Quarter- Friday July 8


Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-

Summer Status Quo...

Wednesday, June 8,  2011

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After an incredibly hot stretch to start the month of June with temperatures exceeding the century mark, and many locations setting multiple record highs, we have finally tempered down towards normal June weather. The real question is will it continue, or will we experience another heat wave in the forecast period. On this Wednesday, temperatures reached the low to mid 90s across all reporting sites with the usual exception being along the immediate coast. For a drought stricken SW Louisiana, scattered showers & thunderstorms were of lesser significance today with only a widely scattering mainly over Acadiana. A short wave rotating around the southern periphery of the large upper level ridge that plagued us with the heat wave was located to our E and NE, and didn't really make enough headway to create the necessary lift to provide for additional showers & storms. So if you didn't get any rain between Sunday & Tuesday, then odds are you will have to wait a while longer as we begin to see strengthening mid and upper level ridging for the latter half of the work week. All of today's convective activity has decayed with the loss of daytime heating, and a quiet but humid June night is on tap with lows generally around normal in the lower 70s with middle 70s at the coast. A light onshore flow will prevail.

There will be another chance for some lucky folks to get some rain on Thursday. Another short wave rotating around the persistent ridge will move from E to W during the afternoon, and this should combine with daytime heating to produce showers & thunderstorms on a widely scattered basis. As has been the case with many of the storms this week, some of these could briefly reach severe limits with damaging winds & hail the main threats. It is nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly who will be lucky enough to get rain until it is actually visible on radar. Many people want to know if it will rain at their particular location, but the short answer is there's no way of knowing that until the daily crop of convective activity fires up. There will also be sea breeze interaction during the afternoon hours. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy. Highs will easily reach the low to mid 90s yet again, and with plenty of humidity present, the apparent temperatures will be threading the needle with the 100 degree mark. That's still better than actual temperatures around the same mark. The usual onshore flow will prevail with SSE winds 10-15 mph or so. Areal coverage for Thursday should in the 20-30% range, about average for early June.

The atmosphere dries out further for Friday through the weekend & into next week. Minimal rain chances, slim to none will be in store for the rest of this forecast period. The upper level high re-establishes itself across the Bayou State, although it shouldn't be nearly as strong as it was previously. However, temperatures will be reflected by the drying atmosphere and the building ridge. No better than a 20% chance of some scattered afternoon convection is expected Friday-Wednesday, and any storms that do fire up will be the typically thermally induced activity. Skies will generally be Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy each day. Morning lows will remain at or slightly above average in the low to mid 70s while afternoon highs should strictly be in the above normal category through mid-month with readings in the mid to upper 90s. It is certainly feasible that locations well inland may flirt with or exceed the 100 degree mark for actual air temperatures by late in the weekend. Heat indices will certainly be above 100, and approach the 105 degree danger level. Be sure to use extreme caution when engaging in outdoor activities, and don't forget the sunscreen. It's a good time to find a nice swimming pool. The bad news is we won't see anything remotely close to helping the ongoing drought situation. Remember, the entire state of Louisiana is under a mandatory burn ban until further notice.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   73/94  73/94  73/95  20 20 10 10 0 0
CAM  77/87  77/87  78/88  20 30 10 10 0 0
LFT    72/95  73/95  73/96  20 20 10 10 0 0
ARA   75/93  75/94  74/94  20 20 10 10 0 0
BPT    75/95  75/96  75/97  20 20 10 10 0 0
JAS     72/95  73/97  72/98  20 20 10 10 0 0
AEX   71/96  72/97  72/98  20 20 10 10 0 0
POE    71/96  72/97  72/99  20 20 10 10 0 0


Tonight...Partly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms, mainly near the coast. Low 73. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy w/ a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 73. Light SSE wind.

Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 94. South wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Clear. Low 73. Light South wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 95. SSW wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear. Low 74. Light SSE wind.

Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 96. SSW wind 10 mph.

Sunday Night...Clear. Low 75. Light SSW wind.

Monday...Partly Cloudy & Hot. High 97. SW wind 10-15 mph.


Thursday 6/9/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy
A Widely Scattered Shower or Storm Possible Near the Coast

Temp: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12
H.I.: 93

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Widely Scattered Showers & Storms

Temp: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15
H.I.: 100

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Isolated Showers & Storms Winding Down

Temp: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 97

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 83
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 6



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
6-9-11

Low: 73
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100


Friday
6-10-11

Low: 73
High: 94
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 95-100


Saturday
6-11-11

Low: 73
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 97-102


Sunday
6-12-11

Low: 74
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10
H.I.: 98-103


Monday
6-13-11

Low: 75
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 100-105


Tuesday
6-14-11

Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 100-105


Wednesday
6-15-11

Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the evening.

Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Saturday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Monday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tropical Update...

After a brief flare up with a tropical wave over the tropical Caribbean in the early stages of this month, all is quiet now on the tropical front. No tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday across the entire Atlantic basin, that is to say, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, & Atlantic Ocean.


...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:              3:06a.m.         4:26p.m.       
High:             9:34a.m.        11:12p.m.                  


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    163.46'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, June 8, 2011



Low:                71
Normal Low:   71
Record Low:    59-1930
High:                92
Normal High:   88
Record High:  104-1911

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                0.18"
Normal Month to Date:   1.68"
Year to Date:                 14.69"
Normal Year to Date:    23.72"
Record:                           2.90"- 1897


Significant Weather Observed:

Fog
Haze

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:      75
High:     92
Rain:     Trace

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     72
High:    94
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:     73
High:    83
Rain:    0.52"


Sunrise Thursday:   6:11a.m.
Sunset  Thursday:   8:13p.m.


Hunting Times:

5:41a.m.-8:43p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Thursday June 9

Full Moon- Wednesday June 15

Last Quarter- Thursday June 23

New Moon- Friday July 1


Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-