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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...October is off to an outstanding beginning. You couldn't ask for much better weather than this at any time of year across the forecast area. October is often dubbed Mother Nature's most perfect month around here, and so far she has obliged quite nicely since a strong cold front moved through in the early morning hours on Friday. Temperatures have been running below normal for morning lows with readings in the refreshing category of the upper 40s to lower 50s. Under full sunshine and extremely low humidity, afternoon high temperatures have flirted with the 80 degree threshold, give or take a degree or two. It really has been a nearly perfect weekend for the Bayou State as the weather has been comfortable and the Tigers, Cowboys, and Saints all picked up nice victories.
High pressure has become well established across the Gulf Coast states in the wake of the front, and will remain the driving force behind our weather for the next several days. Tonight is shaping up to be the coolest night of the young fall season so far...how about mid to upper 40s from I-10 northward, while the coast should see readings in the low to mid 50s. While these readings are below normal, they are not in record territory. It will be another clear and beautiful moonlit night with a crisp feel to it. You will be wishing you could play hookey Monday as this awesome weather continues. Look for these identical & ideal conditions to continue. Highs will top out around 80 to the lower 80s, generally a few degrees warmer as a very slow & modest warming trend begins. Humidity values will remain low, and skies will remain totally cloudless. Giving the pattern, high pressure will be locked in place aloft and at the surface, thus providing a continued Northerly flow. This translates into shear perfection continuing through the mid-week period. Air mass modification will cause temperatures to warm just a few degrees each day for morning lows and keep afternoon highs pleasantly warm below 85 degrees. The humidity will only slightly increase with the modest warm up ensuing.
Only subtle changes take place for the second half of the week. Surface moisture will gradually increase as surface high pressure slides off to our East in the latter half of the week. Temperatures will respond accordingly as they climb back into the 60s for morning lows by Thursday/Friday and with daytime highs not changing a whole lot. The humidity, of course, will be a lot more noticeable and given the increase in low level moisture skies will likely transition from Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Deeper moisture is currently progged to remain offshore, so despite a return flow over the inland areas we should remain rain-free. Another storm system will only slowly be approaching the Northern Gulf Coast as we head into next weekend. This appears to be a slowly evolving situation, and right now mid and upper level ridging is forecast to hold firm suggesting a continuation of rain-free conditions. Seasonal temperatures are expected for the second weekend of October. I will keep the entire forecast period rain-free for now, but it is still certainly possible that some rain chances will exist next weekend depending on the ultimate evolution of our next storm system. Previous model runs indicated some rain chances returning to the forecast as early as Friday, so we shall see as we go along this week. The current forecast will delay the arrival of our next cold front until about Monday of next week. Looking long range, the ongoing drought will continue for the foreseeable future even with an expected series of cold fronts to arrive through the middle of the month.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 48/81 51/83 54/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 53/82 55/84 60/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 48/81 50/83 53/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 49/82 51/83 55/84 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 50/83 53/85 57/86 0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS 45/80 48/83 51/85 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 43/80 45/82 50/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 44/80 46/83 51/84 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 48. Light North wind.
Monday...Sunny. High 81. North wind 5-10 mph.
Monday Night...Clear and Cool Once Again. Low 51. Light NE wind.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 83. NE wind 10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 54. Light NE wind.
Wednesday...Sunny. High 85. East wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 58. Light East wind.
Thursday...Sunny. High 87. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 62. SE wind 5 mph.
Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Monday 10/3/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear & Cool
Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 3
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
Low: 48
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
Tuesday
10-4-11
Low: 51
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
Wednesday
10-5-11
Low: 54
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10
Thursday
10-6-11
Low: 58
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Friday
10-7-11
Low: 62
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Saturday
10-8-11
Low: 66
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10-15
Sunday
10-9-11
Low: 64
High: 86
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20
...Tropical Update...
As we head into the month of October, the tropics are still active. Thankfully, with the current pattern in place there is nothing even remotely close to us. I believe for all intents and purposes our season is over, but of course it does officially run through the end of November. However, as a general rule typically once fronts begin coming through on a regular basis, that shuts down the tropical threat to the NW Gulf of Mexico.
In the meantime, let's briefly discuss the two active tropical entities. Hurricane Ophelia is on her way out now. It is located over the Northern Atlantic SE of Nova Scotia. It will pass by Newfoundland Monday. Ophelia has been picked up by an advancing trough, and as a result the forward motion of the storm has accelerated to over 30 mph. The storm will transition into an extra-tropical/post-tropical entity within a couple of days. It will continue moving to the ENE towards the British Isles later this week. In the end, Ophelia will just become another stat for this year.
In case you're plotting at home here's the 10p.m. CDT Sunday, October 2, 2011 advisory on Hurricane Ophelia.
Latitude: 43.9 N
Longitude: 58.6 W
This is about 330 miles SW of Cape Race, Newfoundland.
Winds: 80 mph w/ higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected as Ophelia transitions to an extratropical cyclone Monday.
Movement: NNE or 25 degrees @ 33 mph. This motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed expected on Monday. Ophelia will pass close to the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Monday.
Pressure: 28.76" or 974 mb.
Tropical Storm Philippe is no threat to land. It will maintain tropical storm strength through the forecast period, and will begin to re-curve later this week as it feels the influence of the same trough that is picking up Ophelia. Philippe is a modest tropical storm with winds of 50 mph. It is not likely that Philippe will gain any further strength given the environment over the Central Atlantic Ocean. The current projected track keeps Philippe on a course to re-curve safely to the East of Bermuda. The cyclone should also slowly begin to accelerate as it feels the influence of the approaching mid-Atlantic trough by mid-week.
Here are the 10p.m. CDT Sunday, October 2, 2011 statistics on Philippe.
Latitude: 26.1 N
Longitude: 53.9 W
This is about 785 miles ESE of Bermuda.
Winds: 50 mph w/ higher gusts.
Movement: W or 270 degrees @ 12 mph.
Pressure: 29.65" or 1004 mb.
Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated through Tuesday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Monday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Monday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.
Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Friday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 2:29p.m.
High: None
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
160.56'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Low: 53
Normal Low: 64
Record Low: 45-1984
High: 79
Normal High: 84
Record High: 103-1900
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 0.00"
Normal Month to Date: 0.14"
Year to Date: 30.97"
Normal Year to Date: 43.77"
Record: 1.62"- 2009
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 59
High: 88
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 68
High: 84
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Monday: 7:07a.m.
Sunset Monday: 6:56p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:47a.m.-7:26p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Tuesday October 4
Full Moon- Wednesday October 12
Last Quarter- Thursday October 20
New Moon- Wednesday October 26
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
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