Outstanding October Weather for Several More Days...

Sunday, October 2, 2011

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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...October is off to an outstanding beginning. You couldn't ask for much better weather than this at any time of year across the forecast area. October is often dubbed Mother Nature's most perfect month around here, and so far she has obliged quite nicely since a strong cold front moved through in the early morning hours on Friday. Temperatures have been running below normal for morning lows with readings in the refreshing category of the upper 40s to lower 50s. Under full sunshine and extremely low humidity, afternoon high temperatures have flirted with the 80 degree threshold, give or take a degree or two. It really has been a nearly perfect weekend for the Bayou State as the weather has been comfortable and the Tigers, Cowboys, and Saints all picked up nice victories.

High pressure has become well established across the Gulf Coast states in the wake of the front, and will remain the driving force behind our weather for the next several days. Tonight is shaping up to be the coolest night of the young fall season so far...how about mid to upper 40s from I-10 northward, while the coast should see readings in the low to mid 50s. While these readings are below normal, they are not in record territory. It will be another clear and beautiful moonlit night with a crisp feel to it. You will be wishing you could play hookey Monday as this awesome weather continues. Look for these identical & ideal conditions to continue. Highs will top out around 80 to the lower 80s, generally a few degrees warmer as a very slow & modest warming trend begins. Humidity values will remain low, and skies will remain totally cloudless. Giving the pattern, high pressure will be locked in place aloft and at the surface, thus providing a continued Northerly flow. This translates into shear perfection continuing through the mid-week period. Air mass modification will cause temperatures to warm just a few degrees each day for morning lows and keep afternoon highs pleasantly warm below 85 degrees. The humidity will only slightly increase with the modest warm up ensuing.

Only subtle changes take place for the second half of the week. Surface moisture will gradually increase as surface high pressure slides off to our East in the latter half of the week. Temperatures will respond accordingly as they climb back into the 60s for morning lows by Thursday/Friday and with daytime highs not changing a whole lot. The humidity, of course, will be a lot more noticeable and given the increase in low level moisture skies will likely transition from Sunny to Partly Cloudy. Deeper moisture is currently progged to remain offshore, so despite a return flow over the inland areas we should remain rain-free. Another storm system will only slowly be approaching the Northern Gulf Coast as we head into next weekend. This appears to be a slowly evolving situation, and right now mid and upper level ridging is forecast to hold firm suggesting a continuation of rain-free conditions. Seasonal temperatures are expected for the second weekend of October. I will keep the entire forecast period rain-free for now, but it is still certainly possible that some rain chances will exist next weekend depending on the ultimate evolution of our next storm system. Previous model runs indicated some rain chances returning to the forecast as early as Friday, so we shall see as we go along this week. The current forecast will delay the arrival of our next cold front until about Monday of next week. Looking long range, the ongoing drought will continue for the foreseeable future even with an expected series of cold fronts to arrive through the middle of the month.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   48/81  51/83  54/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM  53/82  55/84  60/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT    48/81  50/83  53/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA   49/82  51/83  55/84  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT    50/83  53/85  57/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS     45/80  48/83  51/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX   43/80  45/82  50/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE    44/80  46/83  51/84  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 48. Light North wind.

Monday...Sunny. High 81. North wind 5-10 mph.

Monday Night...Clear and Cool Once Again. Low 51. Light NE wind.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 83. NE wind 10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 54. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 85. East wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 58. Light East wind.

Thursday...Sunny. High 87. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 62. SE wind 5 mph.

Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SSE wind 10-15 mph.


Monday 10/3/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cool

Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5

Noon

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8


3p.m.

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6


9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday

10-3-11

Low: 48
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Tuesday
10-4-11

Low: 51
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10


Wednesday
10-5-11

Low: 54
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10


Thursday
10-6-11

Low: 58
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Friday
10-7-11

Low: 62
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
 

Saturday
10-8-11

Low: 66
High: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 10-15



Sunday
10-9-11

Low: 64
High: 86
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15-20



...Tropical Update...

As we head into the month of October, the tropics are still active. Thankfully, with the current pattern in place there is nothing even remotely close to us. I believe for all intents and purposes our season is over, but of course it does officially run through the end of November. However, as a general rule typically once fronts begin coming through on a regular basis, that shuts down the tropical threat to the NW Gulf of Mexico.

In the meantime, let's briefly discuss the two active tropical entities. Hurricane Ophelia is on her way out now. It is located over the Northern Atlantic SE of Nova Scotia. It will pass by Newfoundland Monday. Ophelia has been picked up by an advancing trough, and as a result the forward motion of the storm has accelerated to over 30 mph. The storm will transition into an extra-tropical/post-tropical entity within a couple of days. It will continue moving to the ENE towards the British Isles later this week. In the end, Ophelia will just become another stat for this year.

In case you're plotting at home here's the 10p.m. CDT Sunday, October 2, 2011 advisory on Hurricane Ophelia.

Latitude: 43.9 N

Longitude: 58.6 W

This is about 330 miles SW of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

Winds: 80 mph w/ higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected as Ophelia transitions to an extratropical cyclone Monday.

Movement: NNE or 25 degrees @ 33 mph. This motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed expected on Monday. Ophelia will pass close to the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Monday.

Pressure: 28.76" or 974 mb.


Tropical Storm Philippe is no threat to land. It will maintain tropical storm strength through the forecast period, and will begin to re-curve later this week as it feels the influence of the same trough that is picking up Ophelia. Philippe is a modest tropical storm with winds of 50 mph. It is not likely that Philippe will gain any further strength given the environment over the Central Atlantic Ocean. The current projected track keeps Philippe on a course to re-curve safely to the East of Bermuda. The cyclone should also slowly begin to accelerate as it feels the influence of the approaching mid-Atlantic trough by mid-week.

Here are the 10p.m. CDT Sunday, October 2, 2011 statistics on Philippe.

Latitude: 26.1 N

Longitude: 53.9 W

This is about 785 miles ESE of Bermuda.

Winds: 50 mph w/ higher gusts.

Movement: W or 270 degrees @ 12 mph.

Pressure: 29.65" or 1004 mb.


Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated through Tuesday.


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Monday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Monday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Friday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:              2:29p.m.               
High:             None                


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    160.56'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Sunday, October 2, 2011



Low:                53
Normal Low:   64
Record Low:   45-1984
High:               79
Normal High:  84
Record High:  103-1900

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:               0.00"
Normal Month to Date:  0.14"
Year to Date:                 30.97"
Normal Year to Date:    43.77"
Record:                           1.62"- 2009

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     59
High:    88
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:    73
High:    91
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:     68
High:    84
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Monday:   7:07a.m.
Sunset  Monday:   6:56p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:47a.m.-7:26p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Tuesday October 4

Full Moon- Wednesday October 12

Last Quarter- Thursday October 20

New Moon- Wednesday October 26


Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-

More on Hurricane Rita...A Look Back...

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Today as I continue the look back at Hurricane Rita, I will wrap things up with a timeline of the storm, and in closing I will post the hurricane prayer as has become the tradition now each year. It is also permanently located in the right-hand margin of the blog.

-Saturday, September 17, 2005 10p.m.- T.D. 18 formed to the East of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

-Sunday, September 18, 2005 4p.m- T.D. 18 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Rita between the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas.

Rita continued to steadily strengthen as she neared South Florida and the Keys. Watches and Warnings were issued for this area as well as portions of Cuba on the 18th.

-Tuesday, September 20, 2005 10a.m.  - Rita strengthens into a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Straits. Rita began a period of rapid intensification as atmospheric conditions were ideal over the SE Gulf of Mexico.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 1a.m.- Rita became a major hurricane with category 3 winds of 115 mph as it moved into the SE Gulf of Mexico to the West of Key West, FL.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 4p.m.- Hurricane Rita becomes a catastrophic category 5 hurricane w/ 165 mph winds over the Central Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Watches were issued for the Texas and Louisiana coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana. At this time, the official forecast track still took the eye of Rita inland somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Evacuations began voluntarily at first for many coastal locations.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 7p.m.- Rita becomes the third strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin (stronger than Katrina). Maximum sustained winds were near 165 mph w/ higher gusts, and the barometric pressure had dropped to an incredible 26.55" or 898 mb.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10p.m.- Rita maxes out in intensity with winds at an incredible 175 mph. Wind gusts to near 200 mph were reported. Hurricane hunter aircraft record a gust over 230 mph at flight level. At this time, Rita began to wobble more to the NW, and this would become the eventual motion of direction in the overnight hours. Model guidance shifted the forecast track to between Galveston and Vermilion Bay with most models clustered near Sabine Pass. The NHC still pegged Galveston for landfall at this time.

-Thursday, September 22, 2005 4a.m.- The Hurricane Watch was extended Eastward from Cameron to Intracoastal City due to the model shift, and turn to the NW by Rita. Winds remained in the category 5 range at this time. For the first time in history, a mandatory evacuation for all of Calcasieu Parish was called. Local officials urged everyone to leave the area as Rita was bearing down on the NW Gulf of Mexico.

-Thursday, September 22, 2005 10a.m.- A Hurricane Warning is issued from Port O'Connor, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. Evacuations begin full throttle. Rita leveled off during the morning of the 22nd, and still maintained category 5 intensity with 165 mph winds at this advisory.

-Thursday, September 22, 2005 10p.m.- Rita barrels its way towards SW Louisiana. Rita is a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.

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Now as I wrap up the look back at Rita for this year, let's all say together the Hurricane Prayer.

O God, Master of this passing world hear the humble voices of your children. The Sea of Galilee obeyed Your order and returned to its former quietide. You are still the Master of land and sea. We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control; the Gulf like a provoked and angry giant, can awaken from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster. During this hurricane season we turn to You, O loving Father. Spare us from past tragedies whose memories are still so vivid and whose wounds seem to refuse to heal with passing of time. O Virgin, Star of the Sea, Our Beloved Mother, we ask you to please with your Son in our behalf, so that spared from the calamities common to this area and animated with a true spirit of gratitude, we will walk in the footsteps of your Divine Son to reach the heavenly Jerusalem where a stormless eternity awaits us. In the name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit...Amen!

This prayer was written after Hurricane Audrey by then Bishop of the Diocese of Lafayette Maurice Schexnayder.

This year I would also like to include some song lyrics. So is often the case, music can help with the healing process, so hear is a song that I believe sums it all up quite nicely.

"Sometimes He Calms the Storm" by Scott Krippayne

All who sail the sea of faith
Find out before too long
How quickly blue skies can grow dark
And gentle winds grow strong
Suddenly fear is like white water
Pounding on the soul
Still we sail on knowing
That our Lord is in control

Sometimes He calms the storm
With a whispered peace be still
He can settle any sea
But it doesn't mean He will
Sometimes He holds us close
And lets the wind and waves go wild
Sometimes He calms the storm
And other times He calms His child

He has a reason for each trial
That we pass through in life
And though we're shaken
We cannot be pulled apart from Christ
No matter how the driving rain beats down
On those who hold to faith
A heart of trust will always
Be a quiet peaceful place

I believe it is important to always remember, reflect, and look back at Rita. Of course, none of us here, will ever forget the storm, and the images of the destruction will forever be engraved in our minds and hearts. Prayers continue to go out to all those who have struggled to get back on their feet after Hurricane Rita, and like I said earlier this weekend, it is the resilience, friendliness, hard-working, & heart-warming attitude of the majority of the people here that make SW Louisiana a great place to live. It is the concept of neighbors helping neighbors that is practiced day in and day out that helps us to quickly get back on our feet after any disaster occurs. Rita will be the benchmark storm from now on for our area, and we can only hope and pray that it will be many many many years before another major hurricane strikes our area. It is one of the dangers of living along the Gulf Coast, and the inevitable it is will happen again. Of course, with hurricanes though, you always have plenty of time to get out of the way and make sure you and your family are safe. If you have any questions or comments about anything I've posted over the weekend, feel free to leave them right here on the blog or e-mail me. I always encourage them, and will read/answer them as soon as I can. Be sure to scroll down for part 1 of the look back at Hurricane Rita. Thank you all for reading. God bless all of you and God bless SW Louisiana!!!



-DM-