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It has been a long time coming now, since I've posted here. I've been so busy for the last several months. Between work, the holidays and my wedding and the honeymoon and getting settled in with married life, it has been a busy time. It has been the best time of my life, and I love my wife and being married. Maybe, later on this week or in the near future I will have a special blog post about the wedding and the honeymoon including pictures. Lucy & I are doing great, and we thank everyone for your support and prayers, and for attending the wedding. Anyway, that being said, it is time to re-start the blog and provide SW Louisiana with the most accurate and dependable weather coverage it expects & deserves, so without further adieu let's get it to it. The video blogs will also return on a regular basis.
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...My! My! My! The weather has been as beautiful as my wife lately! We need every bit of this as well with the recent flooding rains via the previous pesky Pacific perturbation from early last week. We have had quite a wet start to 2012 with over 20" in most locations. Officially, here in Lake Charles we've collected 24.00" to date since January 1, and that gives us a surplus of 12.35". Quite a switch from the two previously drought stricken years. Of course, as seems to typically be the case in Louisiana, it is feast or famine...we've gone from not enough to too much. We have gone from one of the worst droughts in our history to significant ongoing river flooding in the Sabine & Calcasieu River basins. I will have more on that shortly.
Since Thursday, we have had nearly perfect weather. The only blemish has been late night/early morning patchy fog thanks to the residual moisture leftover from last week's rains. Temperatures are still a bit out of whack for late March, but I don't think anyone is complaining thanks to the very dry air in place. There's not been a cloud to be found for 4 days now, and temperatures have been running in the low to mid 50s for lows and generally the low to mid 80s for highs. Normally, we should have lows in the lower 50s and highs in the mid 70s at this point in the year. This weekend has been one of the best all year, and this is arguably our nicest prolonged stretch of weather this year. High pressure ridges across the entire Gulf South extending back into the Great Plains, and this pattern will hold firm for at least a couple more days before we encounter any sort of changes. Another refreshing night is in store with crystal clear skies. Go out and look at the stars! Temperatures will once again drop into the comfortable 50s, at or just above normal for this time of year. Wall to wall sunshine will be abound once again for Monday with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s. A light offshore flow will continue with winds generally between NE and E at or less than 5 mph. The marvelous March weather will be with us through Tuesday with a similar temperature scheme, however, the only difference then will be the inception of a slight onshore flow as the core of the surface high pressure slides off to the East.
Dry weather prevails through at least Thursday, however, the onshore flow becomes more established. This will mean an increase in humidity, as well as minimum temperatures. High temperatures will likely come down a few degrees, mainly because of the stronger marine influences. The Gulf waters are still on the cool side as we near the end of March, so that will work to offset daytime heating potential. High temperatures will likely still be at or just above the 80 degree mark. Rain chances remain not existent through Thursday. Our next Pacific storm system will be advancing across the country at this time, and is scheduled to influence our weather in the Friday/Saturday time frame. However, to what extent remains to be seen at this juncture. Certainly, there is enough evidence from models to insert rain chances into the forecast for Friday into Saturday. At this time, though, I won't too carried away given the lack of consistency. Patchy fog may once again be an issue by week's end with the deeper moisture in place. Cloudiness will continue increase on Friday, and by afternoon the chance for showers & thunderstorms will be in the forecast as lift increases out ahead of the advancing boundary.
While the chance of showers & thunderstorms should return to the forecast at week's end, at this time, it doesn't appear that we will have a severe weather threat or a prolonged rain event at this time. That is certainly good news, as it is likely that the ongoing river flooding will continue for much of this week. The upper level flow will be much better this time around, so that it appears this front will have no trouble sweeping through the area sometime early Saturday. In the pre-frontal environment scattered showers & thunderstorms will likely continue overnight Friday with a deep onshore flow & mild temperatures. This will be replaced during the course of the day on Saturday as the front pushes through the area, and a drier and somewhat cooler air mass takes over. Skies should quickly clear out by Saturday evening as Pacific high pressure works into the forecast area. March may just go out like a lamb. This sets stage for, at this time, what looks to be a beautiful Palm Sunday across SW Louisiana. Temperatures will be very similar to where they are right now it would appear with not a whole lot of cooling expected. There is still some idea that some overrunning moisture may be in place, that would keep cloudiness and a chance of showers in place for the end of the forecast period, but I will be optimistic at this point. A brief look at the extended shows more Springlike weather just in time for Spring Break next week. We should be line for another storm system sometime before Easter weekend, but of course, exact strength and timing at this point is simply speculation. Have a great week!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 56/83 59/82 61/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM 59/80 61/78 63/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 55/83 58/83 61/82 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 56/83 59/83 62/81 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 58/84 61/83 62/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS 53/84 55/83 57/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 53/84 54/83 55/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 53/84 54/83 56/83 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Clear. Low 56. Light North wind.
Monday...Sunny. High 83. NE to E wind 5 mph.
Monday Night...Clear. Light Patchy Fog possible after midnight. Low 59. Light ESE wind.
Tuesday...Sunny. High 82. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Tuesday Night...Clear w/ Patchy Fog possible. Low 61. Light SE wind.
Wednesday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 82. SE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear w/ Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 63. Light SE wind.
Thursday...Patchy Early Morning Fog and/or Low Clouds, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 81. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog and/or Low Clouds after midnight. Low 64. SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Patchy Fog, possibly locally dense early to mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Humid, & Breezy w/ a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 80. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.
Monday 3/26/12 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Noon
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 4
3p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 3
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Monday
Low: 56
High: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/E 0-5
Tuesday
3-27-12
Low: 59
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Wednesday
3-28-12
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
Thursday
3-29-12
Low: 63
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
Friday
3-30-12
High: 80
Rain: 40% PM
Wind: SSE 15-20
Saturday
3-31-12
Low: 60
High: 78
Rain: 30% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20
Sunday
4-1-12
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 1 foot.
Monday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Monday Night...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Tuesday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...River Flooding...
In this section, I will take a brief look at the flooding along the area rivers. Flooding is ongoing in the Calcasieu, Sabine, Ouiska Chitto, Vermilion, & Neches River basins.
The worst of the flooding is occurring along the Sabine & Calcasieu River watersheds. Moderate flooding is occurring along the Calcasieu River from Lake Charles northward to Glenmora. The river is in flood at Salt Water Barrier, Old Town Bay, Sam Houston Jones State Park, Kinder, Oberlin, Oakdale, & Glenmora. The Sabine River is in flood south of Toledo Bend Dam including Deweyville and Bon Wier.
Here some official river stages:
Calcasieu River @ Salt Water Barrier....Flood Stage...4'....Current Stage...4.2'...Expected Crest....5.5' Monday 3/26. Minor to Moderate Flooding.
-Flooding of River Road in North Lake Charles occurs. It should fall below flood stage Thursday afternoon.
Calcasieu River @ Old Town Bay...Flood State...4'...Current Stage...6.7'...Expected Crest...7.8' Thursday 3/29. Moderate flood.
-Goos Ferry Road is impassable and the lower end of Pickrel Lane is flooded.
Calcasieu River @ Sam Houston Jones State Park in Moss Bluff...Flood Stage...4'...Current Stage...6.6'...The river has crested at this location & is expected to drop below flood state by Tuesday. Minor to moderate flooding occurring at SHJSP.
-Flooding of recreational areas in the park are under water, including the playground & campsites nearest the river. Portions of S. Perkins Ferry Road become impassable.
Calcasieu River @ Kinder...Flood Stage...16'...Current Stage...18.2'...Expected Crest...21' Wednesday morning 3/28. Major flooding will occur at this location.
-Lowland sections of Old Pump Road, Kinder Cemetery Road, & Nevils Bluff Road will flood.
Calcasieu River @ Oberlin...Flood Stage...13'...Current Stage...19.8'...Expected Crest...20.5' by tomorrow afternoon Monday 3/26. Major flooding is occurring at this location.
-Secondary roads & homes near the river are flooded. Reed's Bridge Road upstream of the river from Oberlin will flood.
Calcasieu River @ Oakdale...Flood Stage...12'...Current Stage...15.6'...The river has crested @ this location & will maintain a slow fall through the week w/ minor flooding ongoing.
-Low secondary roads near the river will flood & several homes in close proximity to the river will flood.
Calcasieu River @ Glenmora...Flood Stage...12'....Current Stage...14.6'...The river has crested in Glenmora as well. Minor flooding is ongoing.
-Some roads near Glenmora will flood. This includes Strothers Crossing Road near the community of Calcasieu and Price Crossing Road near Hineston. These roads will have 2-3' of water over them and are subject to being closed. Forested areas near the river will be flooded.
Sabine River @ Deweyville...Flood Stage...24'...Current Stage...26.9'...Expected crest...27' Monday morning 3/26. Moderate flooding is ongoing.
-Deweyville Schools may be impacted because of flooded bus routes.
Sabine River @ Bon Wier...Flood Stage...30'...Current Stage...31.8'....The river has crested at this location. Minor flooding is ongoing.
Lowland flooding between Merryville & Bon Wier is occurring, & a few roads in SW Vernon Parish will have water over them.
For more on the river flood situation, please go to the National Weather Service Lake Charles web page:
www.srh.noaa.gov/lch
...Tide Data...
Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 11:44a.m.
High: 6:42a.m. 4:25p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
171.32'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Low: 57
Normal Low: 53
Record Low: 30-1915
High: 86
Normal High: 74
Record High: 90-1910
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 7.19"
Normal Month to Date: 2.96"
Year to Date: 24.00"
Normal Year to Date: 11.65"
Record: 4.32"- 1943
Significant Weather Observed:
None
One Year Ago (2011)
Low: 59
High: 79
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2007)
Low: 62
High: 79
Rain: 0.01"
10 Years Ago (2002)
Low: 60
High: 80
Rain: Trace
Sunrise Monday: 7:09a.m.
Sunset Monday: 7:28p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:39a.m.-7:58p.m.
...Lunar Table...
First Quarter- Friday March 30
Full Moon- Friday April 6
Last Quarter- Friday April 13
New Moon- Saturday April 21
Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-
