Arctic Cold in the Short Term...Have No Fear the 70s Will Soon Be Here...

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Be sure to click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Scroll down for the complete form of the blog.





SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Our latest Arctic blast continues to dominate the weather. It was an overcast and cold Thursday across the area. A low stratus deck hung tough in the wake of Wednesday's Arctic cold front. The low stratus deck was present as a result of a weak temperature inversion in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This morning, a minor disturbance embedded in the Jet Stream above 700 mb. known as a speed max rotates through. Since the air in place is very cold, it didn't take much of a lifting

mechanism to squeeze out all available moisture that was present. That is exactly what happened this morning, as some very light snow flurries, better known as, snow grains occurred from time to time at random locations across the forecast area. These snowflakes were visible, but of little consequence. It was a pretty sight even though it was short-lived. It fit the very cold air mass that is in place very well. I was lucky enough to have visual conformation of the snow grains in South Lake Charles around 9a.m. The weak disturbance moved Eastward, and the brief scattered flurry activity was an afterthought this afternoon with just the stratus deck remaining in place. Clouds slowly began to clear from NW to SE across the area as the strong high pressure associated with the Arctic air mass continued to build further South towards the Red River Valley. The strong winds transported cold air into the area from the snow covered ground to our North. Parts of Arkansas and Missouri were in the -10s to near -20 this morning with 1-2' of snow on the ground. Of course, the air is slightly warmer here, but with the clouds in place we didn't make it out of the 30s today. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30s was all we could muster. Wind chills were in the 20s for most of the day.

Skies have cleared across the entire forecast area tonight, and that sets the stage for a very cold night. In fact, this might turn out to be the coldest night of the season in some locations. Certainly, hard freeze criteria will be realized all the way to the coast. Winds will decouple as well dropping down under 10 mph as the strong Arctic high slips into Texas. This will create prime radiational cooling conditions across the forecast area. Morning lows for Friday will range from the upper 10s to mid 20s across the area. Lower 20s look good here along I-10. Precautions from the hard freeze conditions should be made for the 4 P's as usual. You know the drill at this point. This is old hat by now this winter. The clear skies and lighter winds will set the stage for one of, if not the coldest night of the season. The high pressure will settle in and temperatures will be around 22 or 23 at sunrise Friday morning here along I-10. The very cold start to the day on Friday will give way to a day full of sun, but it will remain on the unseasonably cold side with afternoon highs reaching close to 50 or so, give or take a degree or two. High pressure will be right over head, so the wind will not be much of an issue generally remaining less than 10 mph with an offshore component. Friday night will be another cold night with yet another hard freeze expected. This should be the last hard freeze for awhile. Temperatures will once again have no problem radiating down into the middle to upper 20s across the area. It should a few degrees warmer than Friday morning strictly because of air mass modification. A heavy frost is expected for Saturday morning as the weekend gets off to a cold and clear start.

After the cold start to Saturday, it will be a superb weekend. Wall to wall sunshine is expected on Saturday, and temperatures will warm up in a hurry reaching near 60. A few areas will eclipse this mark. The overall pattern will shift from Northwesterly to zonal across the Gulf Coast states, and this will help erode the Arctic air mass. A light Westerly flow will be in place at the surface. Humidity values will remain low. Another frosty night is on tap for Saturday night into Sunday, but only a light freeze is expected, and that should only be from areas along I-10 Northward. The weekend looks great for anything planned outdoors, and it should feel nice and comfortable for church on Sunday. After morning lows around the freezing mark, we will eclipse 60 in all areas Sunday afternoon reaching close to the benchmark normal for the middle of February, in the middle 60s. The humidity will remain low with the Gulf of Mexico basically shut down as far as having a direct impact on our weather. We should get through the entire weekend on a cloud free basis. I will go ahead and pick this weekend as the best weekend of the year so far.

Into next week, Monday through Thursday will offer a continuation of the benign weather. The forecast area will remain null and void of all large scale weather systems. All forecast models suggest no cold front moving into our area. Temperature modification will continue, and the weather will be on cruise control. We'll have a nice free preview of spring. Morning lows will rebound into the 40s for Monday and Tuesday, and reach near 50 by Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Afternoon highs will start the week out in the mid 60s, but crack the 70 degree mark for Wednesday and Thursday as it stands right now. Moisture levels will increase as well slowly but surely. Monday should still be rather pleasant humidity wise with generally another cloud free day on tap. However, by Tuesday as high pressure anchors itself to our East, we will be on the Western periphery. Thus, a return flow of Gulf moisture will commence across the forecast area. This will begin on Tuesday, and have great prominence of our area's weather by Thursday. As the return flow comes back into play, the chances for late night/early morning fog  will also be on the rise. The marine influence will have a say so in that. Fog is still quite common around these parts through the Spring. While it appears that we are heading for a welcomed, warmer pattern, it is not safe to assume winter is over. The latter half of February is often the time when we time the corner around here and come out of the winter doldrums. That doesn't mean we can't have cold weather into March. We have had plenty of occurrences over the years where sub-freezing temperatures occurred in March, so we'll just have to wait and see. For now, it looks like we will be milder next week with the potential for our next chance of rain and storms along with a cold front likely not coming until the following week.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  23/48  25/57  31/62  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   24/47  24/56  30/61  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   23/49  26/59  32/63  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  18/45  21/55  28/60  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE   19/45  22/56  29/60  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  25/48  27/57  32/61  0 0 0 0 0 0


*Hard Freeze Warning in effect until 9a.m. Friday.*

Tonight...Clear & Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 23. North wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Sunny & Warmer. High 48. North wind 5-10 mph.

Friday Night...Clear & Cold w/ Another Hard Freeze. Low 25. Light WNW wind.

Saturday...Sunny & Warmer. High 57. West wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear & Cold w/ a Light Freeze. Low 31. Calm wind.

Sunday...Sunny & Warmer. High 62. West wind 5-10 mph.


Friday 2/11/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Very Cold

Temp: 23
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 4
W.C.: 20

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny...Warming Up

Temp: 30
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5
W.C.: 27

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
W.C.: 38

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5

6p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 3

9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 35
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 2



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
2-11-11

Low: 23
High: 48
Rain: 0%
Wind: 5-10
W.C.: 20-40


Saturday
2-12-11

Low: 25
High: 57
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
W.C: 20-40


Sunday
2-13-11

Low: 31
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10


Monday
2-14-11
Valentine's Day

Low: 43
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10


Tuesday
2-15-11

Low: 46
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10


Wednesday
2-16-11

Low: 49
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 10-15


Thursday
2-17-11

Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15



...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday Night...West winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Sunday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:                        2:34a.m.  
High:                        3:52p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.76'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, February 10, 2011


Low:                31
Normal Low:   43
Record Low:   19-1933
High:                37
Normal High:   63
Record High:   80-1957

Rainfall

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.35"
Normal Month to Date:   1.32"
Year to Date:                  6.46"
Normal Year to Date:     6.84"
Record:                          2.06"- 1898

Sensible Weather Observed:
None


One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     31
High:     51
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     44
High:     66
Rain:     0.89"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    34
High:    54
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   6:56a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   5:58p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:26a.m.-6:28p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Friday February 11

Full Moon- Friday February 18

Last Quarter- Thursday February 24

New Moon- Friday March 4


Have a great Friday & Weekend! God Bless!
-DM-

The Arctic Blast is Here...Cold Into the Weekend...Black Ice Threat Tonight...

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the full length text block.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The latest Arctic intrusion is here. The cold front came through right on schedule today around the noon hour. A shield of rain overspread the area causing widespread rainfall through the afternoon hours. Rainfall totals were generally an inch or less. Rainfall has tapered off to intermittent drizzle and patchy light rain tonight. Temperatures ahead of the front warmed into the upper 40s to mid 50s, and have since dropped off into the 20s and 30s. The freezing line will continue pushing to the ESE through the night. Skies will remain cloudy through the overnight hours, and boundary layer moisture will slowly dry out. Any chance for additional precipitation seems unlikely. However, some patchy freezing drizzle/drizzle or very light sleet or snow flurries are possible. No accumulation of any frozen precipitation is expected. However, the big issue across the area will be the possibility of black ice. Most of the moisture from today's rainfall remains in place with wet roads, and some standing water. As temperatures continue to fall into the mid 20s or so on average by sunrise the remaining water will freeze, and create a thin layer of ice on area roadways. The main impacts will be on bridges and elevated roadways. This will create the threat for some dangerous travel for first thing Thursday morning. Use extreme caution when traveling late tonight and Thursday. The wind chill will also be an issue thanks to strong Northerly winds on the order of 15-20 mph at times. With temperatures in the mid 20s, wind chills readings will be in between 10 and 15 degrees, bordering on wind chill advisory criteria. A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect through morning hours Thursday. Make the usual precautions to protect the 3 P's from the elements.

A much, quieter pattern is in store for the balance of this forecast period. The Arctic blast will continue, but the overall weather will be rather uneventful. Clouds will clear out on Thursday, but clouds will hang tough at least for the morning hours. CAA will continue, and it will be a very cold day even if the sun comes out. High temperatures will only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s across the area. Northerly winds will prevail as Arctic high pressure slides down out of the Great Plains towards the Red River Valley. The winds will transport the cold air over snow covered ground to the North, not allowing for much modification at all. The black ice will slowly melt as temperatures warm above freezing by mid-morning. The continued strong winds, and a continually drying atmosphere will also begin to cause some sublimation. The sun should make an appearance in the afternoon as the strong area of high pressure continues to push into the region. Winds will gradually decrease during the day, but remain strong enough to keep wind chills en vogue as well. These readings should be between 15 and 25 degrees throughout the day. Now, as skies clear and winds decouple Thursday night the stage will be set for potentially the coldest night of the season. A hard freeze will be experienced all the way to the coast. Overnight lows will range from the upper 10s from near Toledo Bend to Alexandria to the lower 20s here along I-10 and mid 20s in the coastal marshes. Wind chills will still be an issue, but will be a lot closer to the actual temperature given the lighter winds. Friday morning will be very cold with the apparent temperature running in the 10s once again.

Friday will be a beautiful day with abundant sunshine, but it will remain on the cold side. The warming trend will ensue nonetheless. The Arctic high pressure will remain in control. High temperatures will certainly be warmer than that of Thursday, but still below normal levels. Maximum values should range from the mid to upper 40s across the forecast area. Winds remain light into Friday night as the high pressure only slowly slides Eastward. Another clear and cold night is expected with lows down into the mid to upper 20s again as air mass modification takes shape. The weekend looks great with a continued warming trend and nothing but sunshine expected. After the frosty February morning on Saturday we'll see highs easily eclipse the 50 degree mark, and as a wind shift occurs during the day it well ultimately turn out to be closer to 60 as warm W to SW surface winds help intensify the warming trend. The lower levels will remain very dry as well. The hard freeze from Saturday morning will become a fast, fading memory by afternoon with the enhanced warm up. Great news is that Sunday will be even warmer, so get out there and enjoy the weather this weekend! Nothing but sunshine is expected again for Sunday. Temperatures will continue their upward trend with morning lows around freezing. It will likely be quite frosty to start the day on Sunday. Afternoon highs will creep towards normalcy likely eclipsing the 60 degree threshold, even if only barely. With low humidity in place, it will feel great.

The period of Monday-Wednesday offers a continued warming trend. It will indeed be a nice preview of Spring, and leave many of us with a case of Spring fever. Monday will likely still be a virtually cloud free day with dry air remaining in tact in all levels of the atmosphere. The zonal flow will continue, and a Westerly surface wind will be present. Morning lows will be safely above freezing with readings in the low to mid 40s, while afternoon highs will be at or just above normal reaching the mid 60s. Valentine's Day 2011 looks to be a lovely day, indeed. Dry weather continues for Tuesday and Wednesday, but a gradual increase in low level moisture will occur. Sky conditions will generally range from Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy each day with no mention of rain. All large scale weather systems will bypass our region during this time as the controlling Pacific high acts as a blocking mechanism. The high will only slowly translate Eastward, and as it does so winds will bend back around to onshore. This will ultimately open up the Gulf of Mexico, creating the usual marine influence across the area. This may play a part in determining exactly how much we will warm up net week. The presence of cool continental shelf waters will inhibit our ability of reaching the 70s. Models still forecast this, and it may well happen, but for now the best course of action is to suggest readings in the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Morning lows will be similar both days as well with readings generally in the mid to upper 40s. Fog may become the sensible weather issue these mornings. The light onshore flow will be enough to create fog possibilities, especially given the fact that the length of nighttime is still greater than the length of daytime at this point. Our next chance of rain looms just beyond this forecast period as another cold front is progged for the latter half of next week. It is too soon to speculate on the timing and actual influences of the front right now. It appears that the second half of February will be much warmer than the first half as the Arctic oscillation trends suggest warmer than usual weather. We will not be completely done with winter after this week's freeze, but usually by the second half of February we can see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. Stay tuned!!!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  26/41  22/48  24/57  20 10 0 0 0 0
LFT   27/40  21/47  23/57  20 10 0 0 0 0
BPT   24/42  23/48  25/59  20 10 0 0 0 0
AEX  22/38  18/45  22/55  20 10 0 0 0 0
POE  22/38  18/45  22/55  20 10 0 0 0 0
ARA  28/41  22/48  24/58  20 10 0 0 0 0


*Hard Freeze Warning is in effect until 9a.m. Thursday.*

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Much Colder w/ a Hard Freeze. A 20% chance of light drizzle, freezing drizzle or very light snow flurries. No accumulation. Patches of black ice possible toward morning. Low 26. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings 10-15 by morning.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy in the morning with clearing skies in the afternoon. Windy & Cold. High 41. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty. Wind chill readings 15-30.

Thursday Night...Clear & Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze down to the Coast. Low 22. North wind 10 mph. Wind chills in the 10s.

Friday...Sunny & Warmer. High 48. NW wind 5-10 mph.

Friday Night...Clear & Cold w/ Another Hard Freeze. Low 24. Light NW wind.

Saturday...Sunny & Warmer. High 57. West wind 5-10 mph.


Thursday 2/10/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Cloudy & Cold...Patches of Black Ice

Temp: 26
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 20
W.C.: 11

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Cold, & Windy

Temp: 31
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 18
W.C.: 15

Noon

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Cold

Temp: 37
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 16
W.C.: 22

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy & Cold

Temp: 41
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
W.C.: 30

6p.m.

Weather: Clear & Cold

Temp: 34
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 12
W.C.: 20

9p.m.

Weather: Clear & Cold...Already Below Freezing

Temp: 28
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 8
W.C.: 24


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
2-10-11

Low: 26
High: 41
Precip: 10%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 10-30


Friday
2-11-11

Low: 22
High: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 15-30


Saturday
2-12-11

Low: 24
High: 57
Precip: 0%
Wind: WNW 5-10
W.C.: 20-40


Sunday
2-13-11

Low: 32
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
W.C.: 25-40


Monday
2-14-11
Valentine's Day

Low: 41
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10


Tuesday
2-15-11

Low: 45
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5-10


Wednesday
2-16-11

Low: 47
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 5-10


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday morning.*

Tonight...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of rain late in the evening.

Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Saturday...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.


...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:            1:30a.m.         12:18p.m.
High:           10:01a.m.           3:53p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.62'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, February 9, 2011


Low:                33
Normal Low:   43
Record Low:   17-1933
High:                54
Normal High:   63
Record High:   80-1965

Rainfall

Today:                            0.18"
Month to Date:               1.24"
Normal Month to Date:   1.20"
Year to Date:                  6.35"
Normal Year to Date:     6.72"
Record:                          2.83"- 1923

Sensible Weather Observed:

Heavy Rain
Rain
Light Rain
Fog

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     39
High:     53
Rain:     Trace

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     42
High:     61
Rain:     0.00"

10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    44
High:    72
Rain:    0.18"


Sunrise Thursday:   6:57a.m.
Sunset  Thursday:   5:57p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:27a.m.-6:27p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Friday February 11

Full Moon- Friday February 18

Last Quarter- Thursday February 24

New Moon- Friday March 4


Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-

Cold & Wet Mid-Week...Another Arctic Blast on the Way...

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

No video blog today, but be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion....It was a beautiful Tuesday across the area with Canadian high pressure in control. There was abundant sunshine across the entire Gulf Coastal rim. This came after a cold morning start with subfreezing temperatures. Readings ranged from the mid 20s to lower 30s across the area. It was pleasantly cool this afternoon with temperatures right on target in the low to middle 50s, officially 53 here in Lake Charles. Changes are already taking shape tonight as the next vigorous storm system approaches. Cloudiness will increase as the night wears on, and as the strong cold front from the Arctic makes headway forcing will begin to increase. Convergence will also be on the increase. Temperatures will remain on the cold side, but not quite as cold as last night with modest WAA in place. Cloud cover will also help to keep temperatures a tad warmer. Expect skies to become overcast through the night, and the chance for some spotty showers will exist in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area. It is possible that temperatures will bottom out in the mid 30s just after midnight, and then slowly rise towards morning as WAA increases in advance of the cold front. An Easterly wind will help to increase boundary layer moisture, but the presence of a return flow off the Gulf will be absent given the orientation of the previously controlling surface high.

Wednesday will be a very wet day. Rain will develop over SE Texas before sunrise, and translate Eastward through the day. Rain chances will ramp up significantly as the day goes on. Scattered activity will be expected early in the morning, but by noon rain will be in the likely category with widespread activity expected as convergence and lifting max out ahead of the strong Arctic front. This front will quickly sweep through the forecast area during the day Wednesday as strong upper level winds transport the front SE into the coastal waters. Modest warming will continue in the pre-frontal environment. Temperatures will rise into the mid 40s to around 50 at best before the front comes through putting a halt to daytime warming. The rain will be most intense and widespread in the afternoon, in the post-frontal environment. Additional Jet Stream energy will work in tandem with the cold front to conjure up cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico. This low formation will be the result of a phasing of the Jet Streams. The Polar Jet and the Subtropical Jet will clash across the area. Overrunning processes will be in full effect. Thus, the reason for the widespread rainfall. Rain will be heavy at times, and there could be some isolated thunderstorms as well. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be elevated with greatest instability in the upper levels. Rainfall totals will be around an inch on average, but some 2" totals will be common across the forecast area where the heavier rain bands set up. Temperatures will start falling in the afternoon in the wake of the front. Temperatures will fall back into the 30s by evening and the wind chill will come back into play with readings in the 20s by that time.

The period of Wednesday evening-Thursday morning remains the only period of uncertainty during this forecast period. It will certainly be turning colder as CAA takes over in the wake of the Arctic front. The aforementioned Gulf low will also continue to affect the region as we head towards nightfall. The low will slowly push Eastward through the Gulf keeping moisture over the area, and rain chances on the high end. However, as the colder air becomes more entrenched over the area, and the low pushes further East rain chances will begin to taper down. However, by the evening hours temperatures may be cold enough for the rain to briefly mix with or change over to very light sleet or freezing rain. It is not likely that there will be any accumulations since precipitation will be very light at this time, and it will be falling onto a wet surface. This can certainly change, but all indications are there will be no accumulations across much of the forecast area. Any chance of accumulation in our part of the world will be along and North of a line from near Fort Polk to Alexandria to Natchez, MS. Some light sleet or snow accumulations may occur up that way as the precipitation winds down Wednesday night. A significant snow storm will occur across North Louisiana with snow totals of 3-5" expected from Shreveport to Monroe to Tallulah and Vicksburg, MS. There is the outside chance of a few snow flurries across the forecast area in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday into Thursday morning, but again nothing major and no accumulations. It will be business as usual around here. This will not be nearly on the same scale as last week's ice storm. This looks to be a classic case of the precipitation ending before the coldest air gets here.

The issue of frozen precipitation may be a very marginal one, but the issue of very cold temperatures associated with the mid February Arctic blast will be the big story. Freezing temperatures will return for Thursday morning with lows generally in the mid 20s across the area. Cloud cover will be present as well as cloudiness lingers for awhile behind the departing cold front and surface low. Any residual moisture in place will result in a chance for very light precipitation in the morning hours with the slightest chance of some snow flurries, light sleet, or freezing drizzle. The boundary layer will dry out as the day wears on, and all precipitation chances will disappear from the forecast by mid-day Thursday. It will remain cold, cloudy, and windy with temperatures struggling to reach 40 on Thursday. Strong CAA thanks to NNW winds over 20 mph at times will result in very low wind chills. First thing Thursday morning look for the apparent temperature to range from around 10-15 degrees, and these readings should remain below 30 degrees throughout the day. Skies will only slowly clear through the day Thursday as Arctic high pressure slides down the base of the Rockies. All cloudiness will vacate the region by the evening hours Thursday, and that will set the stage for a very cold night across the area. The Thursday night-Friday morning period has the potential to be the coldest night of the season. This is especially true given the fact that there will be a snowpack across North Louisiana. The offshore flow will continue to transport air into the area straight from this snowpack. The clear skies will result in radiative cooling processes. Low temperatures will range from the upper 10s to lower 20s across the area. Even the coast will fall victim to a hard freeze by sunrise Friday.

High pressure will be in control for the end of the week. The very cold morning on Friday will give way to a cold and sunny day as the Arctic air mass slowly begins to modify. Abundant sunshine is expected with high pressure in control. Light surface winds are expected as well with high pressure situated over Texas. High temperatures will warm up into the mid 40s or so. I am undercutting guidance which suggests lower 50s, but I am considering the snowpack to our North. An extended period of tranquility will begin on Friday. We will slowly come out of the Arctic air as we head into the weekend, but it will be another cold night with temps down into the 20s once again, but instead of lower 20s we'll be talking about mid to upper 20s across the area. The weekend is shaping up to be fantastic, we have to get past the cold start first on Saturday. Full sunshine is expected for Saturday with highs several notches warmer into the mid 50s. Light surface winds will continue with high pressure slowly moving about the Gulf South. The warm up will continue on Sunday, and it looks absolutely great for anything you may have planned outdoors. It will be cold again Sunday morning, with a light freeze possible across the area especially from I-10 Northward. High temperatures will moderate into the 60s for Sunday afternoon. Humidity values will remain on the low side with a dry Westerly flow in place. The overall pattern will shift from a NW flow aloft to a zonal flow by the weekend, and that will help to slowly erode the Arctic influence.

The extended dry period continues into early next week as the second half of the month commences. Atmospheric moisture will only slowly return as surface high pressure meanders about before finally pushing Eastward Tuesday. Plenty of sunshine is still expected on Monday with morning lows moderating into the low to mid 40s across the area. Monday should still feature plenty of sunshine, but some clouds may return in the afternoon. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 60s, but some model guidance suggests highs around 70. However, the marine influences will inhibit our maximum heating potential during the afternoon hours because of cooler continental shelf waters over the Gulf. Current water temperatures in the 40s over the Gulf will hold temperatures in check as the presence of an onshore flow slowly returns over the area. Fog may arise as a problem by Monday night into Tuesday with a more pronounced return flow underway. Tuesday won't be a bad day, but cloudiness will be back in place. A mix of sun and clouds is expected with no mention of rainfall with the area remaining null and void of any influence from a large scale weather system. Morning lows for Tuesday will be in the middle 40s or so, basically normal, while afternoon highs follow suit and reach the middle 60s again. Normalcy will be a nice change of pace compared to this very chilly start to the month of February. Looking long range, the next cold front will move into range around the middle portion of next week, and that should bring about our next chance of showers and thunderstorms. It is too early to tell about specifics of this front, and just how cold it may get behind it. However, the projected Arctic oscillations for the latter half of the month suggest that Arctic air will remain safely away from our part of the world.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  37/50  27/40  23/46  20 100 40 20 0 0
LFT   36/52  28/41  22/45  20 100 40 20 0 0
BPT   39/48  26/42  23/47  30 100 30 20 0 0
AEX  34/44  24/37  18/43  30 100 40 20 0 0
POE  34/44  24/37  18/44  30 100 40 20 0 0
ARA  38/54  28/41  24/45  20 100 40 20 0 0


Tonight...Increasing Cloudiness with a 20% chance of rain after midnight. Not as Cold. Low 37. East wind 10 mph.

Wednesday...Cloudy, Windy, & Cold with rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Turning colder during the afternoon. High 50 with temperatures falling into the mid to upper 30s by evening. Rainfall heavy at times, and possibly mixing with light sleet late. Rainfall totals 1-2". Chance of rain 100%. East wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty in the afternoon. Wind chill readings in the 10s and 20s by evening.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy, Windy, & Cold with a 30% chance of rain possibly mixed with or changing to light sleet or light freezing drizzle. No sleet or ice accumulation expected. A few snow flurries possible overnight. Low 27. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills 10-15 by morning.

Thursday...Cloudy, Windy, & Very Cold with a 20% chance of snow flurries, light sleet, or freezing drizzle in the morning. No snow or ice accumulations. Slow clearing through the day. High 40. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty. Wind chills 15-25.

Thursday Night...Clear & Very Cold w/ a Hard Freeze. Low 23. North wind 10 mph. Wind chills in the 15-20 range by Friday morning.

Friday...Sunny & Cold. High 46. North wind 5-10 mph. Wind chills 20-40.


Wednesday 2/9/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Cloudy

Temp: 37
Rain: 20%
Wind: E 10
W.C.: 32

9a.m.

Weather: Rain Increasing

Temp: 44
Rain: 60%
Wind: E 11
W.C.: 35

Noon

Weather: Rain & a Few Thunderstorms

Temp: 50
Rain: 100%
Wind: E 15

3p.m.

Weather: Rain, Windy, & Turning Colder

Temp: 42
Rain: 100%
Wind: NNW 22
W.C.: 28

6p.m.

Weather: Rain & Cold

Temp: 38
Rain: 70%
Wind: NNW 23
W.C.: 22

9p.m.

Weather: Cloudy & Cold w/ a Chance of Light Precipitation

Temp: 31
Precip: 30%
Wind: NNW 22
W.C.: 16



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
2-9-11

Low: 37
High: 50
Falling to 36 late
Rain: 100%
Wind: E/NNW 15-25
W.C.: 18-32 P.M.



Thursday
2-10-11

Low: 27
High: 40
Precip: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 10-25


Friday
2-11-11

Low: 23
High: 46
Precip: 0%
Wind:  N 5-10
W.C.: 20-40


Saturday
2-12-11

Low: 26
High: 54
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 20-40


Sunday
2-13-11

Low: 31
High: 60
Precip: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
W.C.: 25-45


Monday
2-14-11
Valentine's Day

Low: 42
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: WSW 5-10


Tuesday
2-15-11

Low: 46
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 5-10


...Marine Forecast...


*Small Craft Advisory in effect Wednesday.*


Tonight...East winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of rain after midnight.

Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet increasing to 7 feet. A chance of rain in the morning...then rain likely in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A chance of rain in the evening.

Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:          12:33a.m.         11:51p.m.
High:            8:01a.m.           5:11p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.62'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, February 8, 2011


Low:                29
Normal Low:   43
Record Low:   19-1933
High:                53
Normal High:   63
Record High:   83-1911

Rainfall

Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               1.06"
Normal Month to Date:   1.08"
Year to Date:                  6.17"
Normal Year to Date:     6.60"
Record:                          2.17"- 1990

Sensible Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     40
High:     63
Rain:     0.58"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     34
High:     65
Rain:     0.00"

10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    54
High:    77
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday:   6:58a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   5:56p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:23a.m.-6:26p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Friday February 11

Full Moon- Friday February 18

Last Quarter- Thursday February 24

New Moon- Friday March 4


Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-

After a Weekend Thaw...We Are Cold Again...Another Arctic Blast Arrives Wednesday...

Monday, February 7, 2011

The weather pattern remains very active. In fact, we are bracing for another very strong blast of Arctic air due to arrive Wednesday. There is also the potential for some more ice. I will keep the blog in short form through at least Wednesday until we see everything unfolds. Also, as time permits either later this week or early next week, I will rehash last week's ice storm that affected the entire forecast area to a certain extent. I will compare it to the big ice storm in 1997, and set up exactly how things came together to produce the freezing rain and sleet, and the most influential ice storm around these parts since the epic ice storm in 1997. I will also critique myself and compare what happened to what was forecasted. Again, look for that later this week or early next week when things calm down.


Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the text block of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It is hard to fathom now that we had an ice storm last week, especially after the beautiful weekend and the substantial warm up after Saturday morning's hard freeze. Temperatures rebounded all the way into the normal category Sunday afternoon with readings in the low to mid 60s. Of course, clouds rolled in Sunday afternoon, and then came a brief storm last night after the game. That was ahead of the first of two cold fronts on the docket this week. The short term forecast is the easy part. I will get into the tough part of this forecast with more specificity in a minute. For tonight, a freeze is expected across the area with high pressure in control and clear skies abound. This comes on the heels of last night's front. Today was a pretty day as the clouds this morning gave way to plentiful sunshine before noon. Temperatures warmed up into the 50s, but this didn't feel too bad compared to last week when we didn't get out of the 30s for 3 days. Tonight, we will drop off quickly into the mid 20s north to the upper 20s along I-10 and lower 30s at the coast. Freezing temperatures are expected into the coastal parishes, but the immediate coast may avoid freezing conditions tonight. The same course of action we have done hundreds of times should be conducted tonight...protect your plants and pets. The pipes shouldn't be an issue this time around. It will be a cold and quiet start to the day on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine to go around. There could be some areas of frost at sunrise, but that won't be a big issue.

Tuesday won't be a bad day. We'll be in between systems. A very fast and amplified NW flow aloft is present across the Eastern 2/3 of the Lower 48. The current controlling high pressure will slowly slide Eastward during the day orienting itself over Dixie by the afternoon hours. The cold start will transition into a seasonably cool afternoon. Temperatures will wind up in the low to mid 50s across the area. This is roughly 10 degrees below the benchmark for the beginning of the second week of February. Plenty of sunshine will be present to start the day, but an increase in clouds will be noted by the mid-late afternoon hours as our next system begins to move closer to the region. Forcing will increase as early as Tuesday night as a strong Arctic front moves through the Great Plains towards the Red River Valley. Cloudiness continues to increase, and an Easterly flow will intensify over the region. It will remain cold. Low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 30s. Rain chances are introduced after midnight as the front itself continues driving SE. Also in the mix, will be an additional piece of energy embedded in the Jet Stream. This disturbance will help fire off periods of cold rain after midnight. This will induce another period of overrunning across the forecast area. Rain chances will be in the 30-40% range in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. Wednesday will by far be the worst weather day of this week. The big system will arrive at this time.

Rain chances will be on the up and up at mid-week. There are a combination of factors that will trigger these rains. The aforementioned elements will be a big part of that. The cold front comes into play first. The front will quickly slide through the forecast area during the morning hours. It will advance into the coastal waters during the afternoon. Temperatures will rise a little bit ahead of the front. I am undercutting guidance, based on the fact that a significant winter storm will be unfolding to our North with snow likely on the ground. Temperatures will warm up into the mid to upper 40s ahead of the front. Rain will become widespread through the morning hours and into the afternoon as isentropic ascent increases. The front will usher in much colder air, and temperatures will start to fall in the afternoon. A very strong and active Jet Stream will increase forcing over the coastal waters, and a surface low will form and advect Eastward along the front. This low will continue to throw moisture up and over the landmass of SW Louisiana and SE Texas. Widespread rain will result, and some of it will be heavy especially Wednesday afternoon when convergence and lifting is at its greatest point. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible with upper level instability in place. Rainfall totals between 1-2" are expected across the forecast area. Winds will be quite gusty as well initially out of the East, but shifting to the NNW behind the front. Temperatures will likely wind up in the 30s by the mid afternoon hours. North Louisiana may receive significant snowfall as the Arctic air mass spills into the state. The rainfall will continue on a likely basis into the evening and overnight hours of Wednesday. This is when the biggest forecast challenge arrives.

Remember last week when it seems likely that a winter storm seemed imminent. That is not entirely the case this time around. However, there is a possibility of some icing problems again in the Wednesday night-Thursday morning time frame. Lingering moisture in the wake of the front, and the surface low will keep rain chances in the forecast. As temperatures continue to fall, we will fall below freezing all areas Wednesday night. That means a transition to freezing rain and/or drizzle will occur. However, this is not etched in stone as some model output suggests the rainfall will come to an end before the coldest air arrives as the boundary layer dries out. The amount of overrunning is the big question. We are close enough to this time frame now, and there is a little more consistency today such that I will include a chance of freezing rain/drizzle in the forecast for the given time frame. While the consistency is there that a surface low will form in the Northern Gulf, the exact track and strength of the low is still in question. A low tracking further to the South would increase the winter weather threat to this area. The Northern extremity of this forecast area may have a better chance of some snow this go around compared to last week. There will certainly be several inches of snow across North Louisiana, but my analysis indicates that rain may mix with or change to snow and sleet as far South as Central Louisiana by Wednesday night. Further adjustment to this forecast is expected on Tuesday. The models don't handle shallow cold air masses very well, and also have a hard time with overrunning.

Now, I mention the frozen precip (ice) possibilities, but it seems unlikely that any accumulation will even compare to the amounts experienced last week. As it stands right now, I would expect only a very thin accumulation of ice if any. However, it doesn't take much freezing drizzle or light freezing rain to cause numerous headaches. I will not mention a specific amount in the official forecast, but I will mention it here in the discussion for now until more clarity arises on Tuesday. Freezing drizzle/freezing rain amounts should generally be between 0.01" and 0.10" per my analysis today. In short, what this means in general terms is that it is a question of whether or not the precip ends before the coldest air arrives. It will certainly be cold enough behind this front to support a transition to frozen precipitation, but how long will sufficient moisture be around. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s Wednesday night and Thursday morning. It will quite windy as well with wind chills back in the 10s. This is the Arctic air mass I briefly mentioned last week amid the ice storm dissertation. If you have travel plans into North Louisiana at mid-week you will want to re-consider as a Winter Storm Watch has already been posted for that region including Shreveport, Ruston, Monroe, and Tallulah. There is no hope for snow here along I-10. Ice is our threat, if any at all. CAA will strengthen as we head into Thursday, and precipitation will be winding down.

Thursday will be cold and windy. Clouds will linger for much of the day. A small chance of freezing drizzle/rain is maintained in the morning hours in case it takes a while for all levels of the atmosphere to complete sufficient drying. Most of the day will be precipitation free as it stands at this juncture, but temperatures will struggle. We will have a hard time getting into the 40s with continued CAA and a cloud canopy in place. Clouds will begin to decrease late in the day as strong Arctic high pressure over the Rockies Thursday slides down into the forecast area. Cold air will continue filtering into the region via strong Northerly winds in the 15-20 mph range at times. This will keep wind chills in the 20s throughout the day. Clearing is expected to finish by Thursday night, and that will set the stage for a very cold night with radiational cooling in effect. Morning lows for Friday will in the hard freeze category. Low to mid 20s seem like a good call across the forecast area. That is certainly well below normal heading into the middle of February, roughly about 20 degrees colder than usual. That is not record breaking though, as records around that time are in the single digits and lower 10s which occurred during the mother of all Arctic breaks in February of 1899 (more on this in the coming days). I feel I will need to undercut guidance, however, given the snowpack over North Louisiana. Models don't take this into consideration either.

The cold Arctic air will be in place for Friday, but Friday should be a day full of sunshine. Don McLean's lyrics from "American Pie" will reign true this week...sing it with me now..."February made me shiver, with every paper I delivered." Despite wall to wall sunshine, the daytime highs on Friday will only be in the mid 40s at best as the winds continue to come off the snow covered ground to our North. CAA will cease later in the day as the Arctic high slowly begins to slide Eastward during the day. The wind chill will be very close to the actual temperature Friday morning with light surface winds in place. It won't be quite as cold Friday night, but the Arctic air will be slow to leave. Another freeze is on tap for the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame setting the stage for a cold start to the second weekend of February...Valentine's weekend. Expect morning lows to be in the mid to upper 20s across the area with the coldest readings from the East Texas Piney Woods to Central Louisiana. The coastline may avoid a freeze this night, but it'll be just above freezing with a good deal of frost even down there. Saturday a nice, a perhaps prolonged, warm up ensues. The upper flow will transition from NW to zonal, and the pattern will be far less amplified across the NW Gulf of Mexico. A more Pacific influence generated by Westerly winds will cause temperatures to rebound nicely back into the upper 50s or so across the region. Very dry air will be in place, so expect humidity values to be low.

The second half of the week looks just as grand. This may turn out to be the prettiest weekend of the year so far, as it stands right now. The warm up continues Sunday with a chilly morning on tap. Temperatures will be close to freezing to start the day. The dry air in place will allow for quicker radiative processes at night, so temperatures will drop into the cold category. Frost looks likely for Sunday again. Listen to this, though, highs on Sunday afternoon should eclipse the 60 degree mark, and top out close to normal with the continued string of low humidity afternoons remaining in tact as the Gulf remains shut down due to some Pacific high pressure replacing the Arctic high. The return flow does commence on Monday, Valentine's Day itself. We should round out this forecast period on a dry note if the current projections hold true. Moisture levels will increase, and the warming trend will continue. However, it will mostly be reflected in morning lows be this point. Model output suggests we may reach or exceed 70 degrees for maximums by next week, but with a cool continental shelf temperature over the Gulf of Mexico waters this seems unlikely at this point. Last week's Arctic blast cooled off SSTs into the 40s in the Gulf. The marine influence will inhibit temperatures from getting as warm as models suggest. However, mid 60s are plausible as the zonal flow is well established by this time. The increasing moisture at day 7 will lead to our next rain chance just beyond the forecast period around next Tuesday into Wednesday. It is too soon to speculate on how big of a chance of rain this'll be, if we'll have a thunderstorm threat, or if it we'll be getting ready to make a transition back to a colder pattern at that time. Any number of solutions is possible that far out. The long range models suggest the warmer weather will dominate for the latter half of February. We shall see!!! Stay tuned for more on the ice possibilities for Wednesday night-Thursday morning!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  28/53  36/48  27/41  0 0 30 80 40 20
LFT   28/52  35/48  29/43  0 0 20 80 40 30
BPT   29/54  37/50  27/42  0 0 30 80 40 20
AEX  25/48  34/44  24/37  0 0 30 90 40 20
POE  25/48  34/44  24/37  0 0 30 80 40 20
ARA  30/53  38/49  30/44  0 0 20 80 40 30



Tonight...Clear & Cold w/ a Freeze. Low 28. Light North wind.

Tuesday...Sunny for most of the day w/ Increasing Cloudiness late. High 53. NE wind 5-10 mph becoming East in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy & Quite as Cold  with a 30% chance of rain towards daybreak. Low 36. East wind 10 mph.

Wednesday...Cloudy, Windy, & Cold w/ rain & a few thunderstorms likely. High 48. Temperatures falling back into the 30s late. Rain heavy at tines along w/ a chance for isolated thunderstorms. East wind 10-20 mph in the morning, but becoming NNW at 15-25 mph and gusty in the afternoon. Rain possibly changing to freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle late. Chance of precipitation 80%.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy & Cold w/ a chance of freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle. Low 27. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind chills 10-15 by morning.

Thursday...Cloudy & Cold with a 20% chance of light freezing rain/drizzle or light rain in the morning. Slow clearing through the day. High 41. North wind 15 mph & gusty or so. Wind chill readings in 20s.



Tuesday 2/8/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cold w/a Morning Freeze

Temp: 28
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 4
W.C.: 25

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 38
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6
W.C.: 35

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
W.C.: 40

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 6

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 48
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 7

9p.m.

Weather: Cloudy

Temp: 44
Rain: 10%
Wind: E 10



Drew's 7 Day Outlook



Tuesday
2-8-11

Low: 28
High: 53
Rain: 0%
Wind: ENE 10-15
W.C.: 20-30


Wednesday
2-9-11

Low: 36
High: 48
Rain: 80%
Wind: E/NNW 15-25
W.C.: 20-40


Thursday
2-10-11

Low: 27
High: 41
Rain: 20%
Wind: N 15
W.C.: 20-35


Friday
2-11-11

  








Low: 24
High: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-40


Saturday
2-12-11

Low: 27
High: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 5-10
W.C.: 20-35


Sunday
2-13-11

Low: 32
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: W 5-10
W.C.: 25-40


Monday
2-14-11
Valentine's Day

Low: 44
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10


...Marine Forecast....


Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of rain after midnight.

Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of rain early in the morning...then rain likely and scattered thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 20 to 30 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.

Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


Have a great Tuesday & God bless!
-DM-