Rain Chances and Fall Weather Around the Corner...Tropical Storm Matthew Forms...

Friday, September 24, 2010

Click below to watch today's video forecast discussion, and be sure to scroll down for the text block.





SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...About this time 5 years ago today, it was a very loud and noisy morning across the entire forecast area. It sounded as though an airplane was sitting on top of SW Louisiana. This was no airplane, this was Hurricane Rita. The worst of Rita was experienced during the early morning hours of September 24. It is much quieter across the forecast area this morning as there are no tropical systems anywhere near SW Louisiana, we have newly formed Matthew in the Caribbean, but even that is safely away from here. More on Matthew as well as Lisa in the tropics. Also, look more on Rita throughout the day. Be sure to scroll down for the first of many posts strictly dedicated to the remembrance of Rita. Now, let's fast forward to the current September 24. The pattern of persistence that we have exhausted this summer continues. Thursday was another day in a string of above normal temperature, high humidity days. Some scattered showers and storms dotted the landscape, but no widespread rain occurred across a very drought stricken region. All convective activity faded away as the sun went down, and a calm and quiet start to Friday will be granted. Clear skies and above normal temperatures will prevail once again this morning. Expect the morning low to be in the lower 70s. Temperatures will warm up into the lower 90s yet again as the same synoptic set up holds firm for one more day. High pressure anchored along the Gulf Coast States will be the dominating weather feature. There is also an added feature of a weak upper level over the Gulf waters. The present flow across the Gulf will steer this ULL towards the NW Gulf Coast, and it should approach SE Texas and SW Louisiana today. This will help spark off the typical thermally enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The pattern will still favor just scattered activity, and most of us will once again be left hung out to dry. The onshore flow will favor the genesis of the typical sea breeze. Expect Partly Cloudy skies and about a 30% chance for the aforementioned afternoon convection. All convection ceases in time for kickoff of all High School Football games. It will be warm and humid with temperatures generally in the 80s for the games. A light onshore flow will persist.

The advertised changes are still on track for this weekend. There is overwhelming uniformity now with the models with respect to the timing of the cold front. It will move into the state on Saturday, and push into and through SW Louisiana on Sunday. As the front approaches, moisture levels will increase, and the controlling high will erode. This in turn, will allow rain chances to increase for Saturday, and more so for Sunday. However, Saturday's shower and thunderstorm activity will still strictly be on a scattered basis, just more of it than normal with moisture pooling ahead of the front. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, with rain chances in the chance category. Activity will be most likely in the afternoon hours as daytime heating factors into the equation. Temperatures will once again be above normal with morning lows in the lower to middle 70s, and highs around the 90 degree threshold. It will remain very humid with a moist air mass in place ahead of the front. The question remains will it rain on the ball games Saturday. I can't guarantee a completely dry forecast for either McNeese or LSU, but rain chances will fall off a bit after dark. I have to keep the mention of a shower or storm in the forecast for the overnight hours on Saturday given the advancing frontal boundary. Temperatures will be in the 80s for most of the game with some 70s possible before the end of the LSU game. LSU plays at 8 p.m. vs. West Virginia, while McNeese plays at 7p.m. vs. Cal Poly. I would suggest bringing your rain gear with you as you head out to any tailgate parties before the game on Saturday, just in case. It is near impossible to pinpoint who will and who won't see rain, but in this pattern anyone stands the chance. The actual cold front will slide through the forecast area with ease on Sunday. As the boundary moves into our very moisture laden atmosphere, showers and thunderstorms will develop in the convergence zone ahead of the front. This could set the stage for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Rain and storms will be possible at any point during the day until the frontal passage occurs in the afternoon. I will leave the prospects of rain unchanged, inheriting the same pops as last forecast package. Mostly Cloudy skies are expected with the increased chance for showers and storms. Sunday will finally begin the trend of cooler temperatures, but not because of the front. It will be the enhanced cloud cover and rainfall that translate to cooler temps. The morning lows will still be in the lower 70s, while afternoon highs decrease to the upper 80s. You might want to bring an umbrella with you to church, because in this case rainfall will not be limited to the afternoon hours. The timing of the front suggested by models looks to be from early to mid-afternoon Sunday. This means it may very well pass through during the Saints game. Will anyone notice if it's raining outside as the Saints battle the Falcons at noon? No weather issues for that game beings as such it's in the Superdome. Drier and cooler air filters in Sunday evening behind the front. Rain chances come to an end, and skies will clear. A refreshing offshore wind pattern will become established as well as high pressure builds in behind the front. Overnight lows heading into Monday will cool off into the mid 60s on average with lower 60s across the Northern half of the forecast area.

Once we get past the weekend, a benign weather regime will take us through the rest of the forecast period. Strong high pressure builds in behind the front which will be positioned over the coastal waters. An upper level low in the wake of the front will develop over the Ozarks and Mid West, and the orientation of this feature will help keep cooler air filtering into the region through the period. Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures are expected Monday-Thursday. It will still be warm in the afternoons with highs into the 80s, but the overall trend will be for below normal to near normal maximums. Morning lows will be well down into the 60s through the forecast period, with the possibility of mid to upper 50s across the Northern portions of the forecast area, for instance, Alexandria. Along I-10, lower 60s will feel great here in Lake Charles to Lafayette and over to Beaumont. Humidity values will be below the 40% range each day as the dry, cooler, fall air mass dominates the weather. While the front will usher in fall across these parts, this is a double blessing for us as it will also help to block the newly formed Tropical Storm Matthew from moving our way. Matthew currently has his sites set on Central America, and could decay over land down there with heavy rain for days causing massive flooding, or it could be deflected to the NE by the trough and threaten Florida late next week. Either scenario, takes Matthew safely away from SW Louisiana. We can finally look forward to fall, and hopefully we can put an end to our tropical season around here as well as this front comes through. It is also nice to report that the cool, dry air will hang around for several days as opposed to just one or two this time around. Only a slow modification of temperatures is expected by the end of next week. An overall dry pattern will continue into October, with the prospects of an even stronger front just beyond this forecast period. We need rain, and hopefully that will come this weekend. It won't alleviate the drought situation by any means, but any rain is welcome. The cooler weather will be very much welcomed after an awful summer.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  74/92  75/91  73/89  0 30 0 40 30 60
LFT   75/92  75/91  74/88  0 30 0 40 30 60
BPT   74/92  75/92  74/89  0 30 0 40 30 60
AEX  72/94  73/93  71/87  0 30 0 40 30 60
POE  72/94  73/93  71/88  0 30 0 40 30 60
ARA  76/92  75/92  75/89  0 30 0 40 30 60


Today...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Tonight..Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SSE wind.

Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 73. South wind 10 mph.

Sunday...Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 89. SSW wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.


Friday 9/24/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 80
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 6

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 13
H.I.: 100

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 9
H.I.: 95

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 4


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
9-24-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita

Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High


Saturday
9-25-10

Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High


Sunday
9-26-10

Low: 73
High: 89
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 8- High


Monday
9-27-10

Low: 67
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Tuesday
9-28-10

Low: 61
High: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Wednesday
9-29-10

Low: 60
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Thursday
9-30-10

Low: 63
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


...Tropical Update...

The tropics remain active, and that's no surprise for the date of September 24. We know this full hand as we were enduring the very worst of Mother Nature at this very moment 5 years ago. Hurricane Rita was very close to making landfall early on the morning of September 24. Rita made landfall as a category 3 with 120 mph winds. You can see more on Rita in the preceding post, and look for much more on Rita later today. Let's fast forward to the present day September 24. We have two named storms at present. Tropical Storm Lisa continues to be of little consequence in the Far Eastern Atlantic, while Tropical Storm Matthew has formed. Matthew formed from the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that has persisted for several days. It was officially upgraded from Invest 95L to a Tropical Depression early Thursday afternoon, and given the official Tropical Storm Matthew designation at the 4p.m. advisory on Thursday. Matthew will be the storm of consequence for the next several days, but it still remains to be seen if this cyclone will have any impact on the United States.

Lisa...The previously mentioned hostile environment in the vicinity of Lisa continues to affect the minimal tropical storm. The storm's intensity and structure changed little on Thursday, and it remains a weak tropical storm this morning. It is harmlessly churning in the Far Eastern Atlantic, and exhibits very little motion at present. Lisa has a very small window of opportunity to strengthen, and this will be between now and early Saturday. Lisa will be moving into an environment that is even more hostile than the current one over the weekend. The synoptic features controlling Lisa are an upper level low to the West of the circulation, an approaching mid-latitude trough, and a large subtropical ridge to its NE. This will create increasing SW shear over the weekend, and the shear will envelop the circulation of Lisa. Drier air in the mid levels and cooler SSTs will also factor into the equation. The low-level circulation will ingest the dry air as well, and this will ultimately lead to the demise of Lisa. Dissipation should occur by early next week, and this will likely be the last time I mention Lisa.

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory

10p.m. Thursday, September 23, 2010

...Lisa Losing Punch in the Eastern Atlantic...Transition to Post-Tropical to Occur in a Few Days...

Latitude: 18.1 N

Longitude: 28.1 W

This is 305 miles WNW of the Cape Verde Islands.

Maximum Sustained Wind: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Lisa may temporarily strengthen today, but will weaken to tropical depression status this weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 35 miles from the center.

Movement: NNE or 20 degrees @ 5 mph. A turn to the N and NNW is expected today along with an increase in forward speed.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.

Matthew...The season's 13th named storm formed on Thursday. It formed from the much advertised tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea. Matthew will be quite influential, and may lead to quite a complex forecast down the road if the cyclone ventures into the Gulf of Mexico. Matthew continues to mature this morning, and the environment in the Caribbean Sea is one that is very favorable for development. I have said many times in recent days, that this area is a hotbed for development this time of year. Matthew is a prime example of this. All indications are that Matthew will continue to intensify, and I see no reason to believe otherwise. Matthew is getting better organized as we speak with a nice burst of convection very near the center of circulation, and Matthew could be poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification. Matthew should become a hurricane late today or Saturday. Matthew is moving nearly due West around the Southern periphery of a large anti-cyclone over the SE United States that extends into the Gulf of Mexico. This Westward motion will bring Matthew towards the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras in Central America within the next 24 hours. The forecast confidence is high into the weekend, but in the medium and long range, the forecast becomes much more complex.

It is only the interaction with land that will create any weakening through the period, and the current forecast suggests that Matthew will move inland near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, and move across the Northern portion of Honduras before moving over water once again by Saturday evening. The Westward motion will transition to a more WNW to NW motion this weekend as a weakness in the large mid-latitude anti-cyclone develops, and a trough over the United States advances towards the Gulf of Mexico. Matthew should move inland yet again over the country of Belize as a hurricane Sunday, and then the steering currents may temporarily collapse as the cyclone moves over relatively flat terrain in Northern Belize and Southern Mexico. Matthew is making good headway off to the West at this time, but the forward motion will decrease over the weekend. Obviously, weakening will occur over land as Matthew will be cut off from its fuel source. Models are in near perfect unanimity through the first 48 hours or so, but beyond this time frame there are plenty of model discrepancies as to the future track of Matthew. There are hint of a very complex situation developing as well. In short, here are the possible scenarios for Matthew. Matthew moves inland over Central America mainly Belize into Southern Mexico and spins down eventually decaying early next week. A life-threatening flash flood event will unfold across the region. If this scenario occurs, models suggest the area of origin for Matthew to remain active with a second tropical cyclone forming, and ejecting off to the N and NE towards the SE U.S. out ahead of the advancing trough. Scenario two would have Matthew skirting the coast of the Caribbean from near Belize to near Cozumel and Cancun as a hurricane, and then evacuating Northward and eventually to the NE meaning Matthew would be affected by the current advancing trough. This would take Matthew towards Florida sometime next week perhaps as a hurricane. While it is unclear exactly what will happen with Matthew, it seems very unlikely that Matthew will pose any threat to SW Louisiana with the cold front moving through over the weekend. Matthew will steadily strengthen until it interacts with land over Central America. The future track of Mathew will become more certain with time.

Tropical Storm Matthew Advisory

1a.m. Friday, September 24, 2010

...Matthew Marches Towards Central America...

Latitude: 14.2 N

Longitude: 79.3 W

This is about 275 miles E of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua & about 260 miles ESE of Cabo Gracais A Dios on the border of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast to continue through today, and Matthew could become a hurricane sometime later today or tonight before reaching the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 45 miles from the center.

Movement: W or 275 @ 17 mph. This general motion should continue through Saturday, and on this track this will take the center of Matthew near the border of Nicaragua and Honduras later today, and over Northern Honduras Saturday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.

Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua to Limon, Honduras including the offshore islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Belize.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Limon, Honduras Westward to the Guatemala Border. A Watch or Warning could be issued for Guatemala later today.

The next complete advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4a.m. CDT.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.


...Marine Forecast...


Today...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


..Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:       9:59a.m.        10:15p.m.
High:       3:03a.m.          4:34p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.92'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, September 23, 2010


Low:              73
Normal Low:  67
Record Low:  49-1982
High:              93
Normal High:  86
Record High:  97-1910

Rainfall

Today:                             0.01"
Month to Date:                0.92"
Normal Month to Date:    4.69"
Year to Date:                 26.01"
Normal Year to Date:    42.78"
Record:                           2.54"- 2005


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

Light Rain


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     73
High:     87
Rain:     Trace


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      75
High:      83
Rain:     2.54"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     76
High:     90
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   7:02a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   7:07p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:32a.m.-7:37p.m.


...Lunar Table...
 
Last Quarter- Friday October 1

New Moon- Thursday October 7

Last Quarter- Thursday October 14

Full Moon- Saturday October 23



Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-

Remembering Hurricane Rita...5 Years Later

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Remembering Hurricane Rita...SW Louisiana's Storm: 5 Years Later.

This entry is a special blog entry looking back at the most devastating and costliest natural disaster ever to strike SW Louisiana, Hurricane Rita. The actual anniversary is tomorrow, but all week I have been looking back on the storm. 5 years ago tonight Rita was approaching the coast of Cameron Parish. The massive category 3 storm was once a category 5, and became the third most intense hurricane ever in the Atlantic Basin at that time with respect to pressure. Look for more information on Rita through tomorrow. Extensive blog posts will be forthcoming on Friday as we mark the 5 year anniversary of the forgotten storm. Rita may be forgotten by the national media, but it is not forgotten among all of us here in SW Louisiana.

Rita made landfall on Saturday, September 24, 2005 at 2:38 a.m. at Johnson Bayou, LA. Rita, once a category 5 over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall as a category 3 with 120 mph winds. The storm surge from Rita was equivalent to that of a category 4 storm. The storm surge was as high as 20' across portions of Cameron Parish and greater than 10' across the entire SW Louisiana coastline. Coastal communities such as Cameron, Holly Beach, Creole, and Johnson Bayou were completely destroyed by Rita from the extreme storm surge. Major structural damage from hurricane force winds over 100 mph occurred across a large area, and extended well inland. Major damage occurred in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Orange, Beaumont, and Port Arthur and all points in between.The Lake Area experienced sustained hurricane force winds for 6-8 hours from late on the 23rd through around sunrise on Saturday the 24th. Tropical storm force conditions began during the afternoon on Friday the 23rd and continued through the afternoon hours on the 24th. The storm surge penetrated as far inland as Lake Charles with water from the Gulf backing up the Calcasieu River. The surge reached levels never before seen in Lake Charles with 6-8' of water in downtown, these levels were exceeded during Hurricane Ike.

Rita formed from a tropical wave that became better organized near the Turks and Caicos Islands on the evening of September 17th. Rita steadily strengthened and first effected the Florida Keys and South Florida as a category 1 hurricane on Tuesday, September 20. Rita passed through the Florida Straits later on the 20th, and entered the Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening trend continued and Rita was a category 2 upon entrance into the Gulf. Initially, Rita was forecast to make landfall along the middle Texas coast near Corpus Christi, but many meteorologists were becoming increasingly concerned that landfall would be further up the coast. What happened next was amazing! Three weeks removed from Category 5 Hurricane Katrina, Rita underwent rapid intensification processes, and attained Category 5 status with 175 mph sustained winds in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions were absolutely perfect for strengthening with a strong ridge of high pressure over the top of Rita creating no shear in the Gulf, and a very high oceanic heating content. Rita continued on a W to WNW course into the 21st, and on the evening of Wednesday September 21, Rita reached peak intensity with winds of 175 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. or 26.49". At the time, that was the 3rd lowest pressure ever recorded anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, surpassing even Katrina. At the time of its peak intensity Rita's hurricane force wind field extended outward 70 miles from the center, while the tropical storm force wind field extended out to 185 miles from the center. The wind field would later expand as the storm weakened. A continued bend in the forecast models, and expansion of the wind field continued to raise concerns for our area, and a direct hit from a major hurricane was becoming more and more likely. The National Hurricane Center issued a Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana and Texas coastline from Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron on Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, September 22, the threat from Rita was realized even more so, as a mandatory evacuation was ordered for Calcasieu Parish for the first time in history. Rita maintained its category 5 strength through the night of the 21st into the 22nd, and the forecast models were now all clustered on landfall occurring near the Sabine River, which is a worst case scenario for our area. Hurricane Warnings were put into effect along the  Texas and Louisiana coast from Port O'Connor to Morgan City at 10a.m. on the 22nd. Hurricanes like Rita rarely maintain category 5 intensity for very long periods of time, and Rita was a category 5 for less than 24 hours. A slow weakening began during the afternoon of the 22nd, as Rita encountered a bit of SW shear, and went through the typical eyewall replacement cycles that hurricanes go through. Rita remained a very dangerous category 4 hurricane into the night on the 22nd, while everyone continued to heed the warnings and evacuate the area. Millions of Gulf Coast residents evacuated, and this created havoc and chaos on the interstate highway systems especially across the Houston Metro area.

Rita continued on its collision course with SW Louisiana, and by Friday September 23 a direct hit was inevitable. Rita had continued to weaken, and was now at category 3, still a very formidable, and serious hurricane with 130 mph winds. Conditions would deteriorate rapidly during the day on the 23rd, and the outer rain bands from Rita began moving across the area by lunch time. The wind field with Rita by 10a.m. on the 23rd has reached 85 miles for hurricane force winds and 205 miles for tropical storm force. The tropical storm force winds moved into coastal areas of SW Louisiana during the early afternoon hours, and overspread the entire area by Friday night. Rita weakened only slightly more before landfall, and weakened to a 120 mph category 3 storm at landfall. Landfall occurred at Johnson Bayou at 2:38a.m. on Saturday, September 24. Sustained hurricane force winds reached the coastline between 6 and 8p.m. on the 23rd, and the first hurricane force gusts occurred in Lake Charles shortly after 9p.m. Sustained winds of over 100 mph, and as high as 130 mph in some areas occurred across SW Louisiana between midnight and 6a.m. on Saturday the 24th. After landfall, the eye of Rita moved Northward through Western Cameron and Calcasieu Parish and Eastern Jefferson and Orange County. The path of the eye was through communities such as Johnson Bayou, Port Arthur, Vinton, Orange, and Deweyville.While the eye of Rita didn't track right over the city of Lake Charles, the position of the eye placed the city in the NE eye wall, which is where the worst of the weather always is with hurricanes. Many spin off tornadoes, the incredible storm surge, and the highest winds occurred during this time. There were likely so many spin off tornadoes with Rita, that to this date 4 years later, an accurate count has not been given. Major damage occurred to many homes and businesses in the area including the Capital One Tower downtown and major damage to the terminal at the Lake Charles Regional Airport. There likely wasn't a home or business in the area that didn't at least have some damage, and many homes and businesses were severely damaged or destroyed by fallen trees or storm surge. The surge in Cameron Parish was so severe, that in many locations only a slab was left.

Our lives were turned upside down on September 24, 2005 by the very worst of Mother Nature. As bad as the damage was from Rita, thankfully the loss of life was minimal. A lot of this is likely attributed to Katrina, because I feel that many wouldn't have evacuated if Katrina had not occurred 3 weeks prior. Most of the fatalities with Rita were in SE Texas and occurred during the evacuation from Houston. A bus accident on I-45 between Houston and Dallas took the lives of 55 evacuees. 7 direct fatalities occurred with Rita, 3 of which were here in the Lake Charles-Beaumont area. The total damage amount from Rita across the area was $10 billion, making Rita one of the top 5 costliest natural disasters on record. Rita was the first major hurricane to strike our area directly in 48 years. Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was the last, and hopefully it will be a very long time before this occurs again. Rita changed SW Louisiana forever, and changed the way of life for a lot of people, and our coastline will never be same. We have learned a lot of lessons from Rita. There's so much more to say about Rita, and part two will come tomorrow night. Here's a few images of Rita.

This is an image of Rita over the Gulf at peak intensity on 9/21/05

A radar image of Rita near landfall...Just before the worst of the storm moved into the Lake Charles area:

Click here for a link to the NWS Lake Charles' Hurricane Rita Page:

The site includes pictures of damage from around the area, and links to satellite and radar images, and also features a comparison of Rita and Audrey.

This is a comprehensive report on Rita from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

More to come tomorrow on Rita, including my own documentation of the storm and evacuation. I was at ULM at the time.

The forecast discussion is forthcoming. My thoughts and prayers continue to go out to all affected by Hurricane Rita. May God bless y'all always, and may God protect our lives and property during hurricane season always. In closing, I will post the Hurricane Prayer as I did back when we marked the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina last month.

O God, Master of this passing world hear the humble voices of your children. The Sea of Galilee obeyed Your order and returned to its former quietide. You are still the Master of land and sea. We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control; the Gulf like a provoked and angry giant, can awaken from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster. During this hurricane season we turn to You, O loving Father. Spare us from past tragedies whose memories are still so vivid and whose wounds seem to refuse to heal with passing of time. O Virgin, Star of the Sea, Our Beloved Mother, we ask you to please with your Son in our behalf, so that spared from the calamities common to this area and animated with a true spirit of gratitude, we will walk in the footsteps of your Divine Son to reach the heavenly Jerusalem where a stormless eternity awaits us. In the name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit...Amen!

-DM-

Fall Officially Begins, but It Still Feels Like Summer...Continuing to Remember Rita...

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Click below to watch today's video forecast discussion, and be sure to scroll down for the text block.





SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Wednesday was the last official day of summer 2010, and the official start of fall occurred last night. It may be fall on the astronomical calender, but someone forgot to tell Mother Nature, at least in these parts. Our standard late summer scenario continues. It's been all about persistence for the last several days, and this will continue. Wednesday featured a typical sea breeze pattern with spotty convective activity from late morning through the late afternoon hours across the forecast area. Temperatures were pegged exactly today with a low in the lower to middle 70s (73 at LCH), and lower 90s for highs (92 at LCH). A large subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Gulf Coast states. It's center is across Dixie with near record heat occurring across that area. We are on the western fringe of the anti-cyclonic flow, and this has put us in the favorable set up for a few scattered storms each afternoon. Dry air in the mid and upper levels continues to suppress a lot of vertical growth with the daily crop of cumulus clouds, and the overall dry weather continues. Drought conditions continue to worsen across the area, with a rainfall deficit quickly approaching 17" for the year 2010 at Lake Charles. A nearly 4" deficit exists for the month of September. No chance of putting a dent in the rainfall deficit in the short term as Thursday will dawn with Clear skies and another humid and warm morning. No mention of rain will exist overnight, and a light onshore flow will prevail. The lower 90 maximums of Wednesday will bottom out in a very similar range once again with low to mid 70s a good call for the entire forecast area.

This pesky pattern of persistence will prevail for the remainder of the work week. A carbon copy of Wednesday is slated for today with Partly Cloudy skies in place, and some spotty thermally induced shower or thunderstorm activity mainly between lunch time and dinner time. The predominant SE flow will continue, and set up a favorable sea breeze pattern across the threshold of SW Louisiana and SE Texas. The sea breeze will work in tandem with daytime heating to produce the aforementioned scattered convection. Again, this is a pattern in which there is no way to be specific about which areas will receive rainfall. This is strictly on a hit or miss basis. No change in the synoptic pattern is expected through Friday. Therefore, the same forecast is on tap for Friday. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s yet again both today and Friday, and morning lows on Friday will suffer a case of deja vu reaching the lower to middle 70s one more time. Rain chances will be no better than 20% both days, and this will not help the drought situation at all. These temperatures in the lower 90s are well above normal for early fall, but not records by any means. All record highs are still in excess of 100 degrees this time of year. Average highs across all reporting sites are in the upper 80s for this point in September. Any convection that fires during the peak heating hours both today and Friday will just be a figment of our imagination by sunset. This means that clear but warm and humid are in the offing for this week's round of Friday Night Football (and any Thursday games tonight). Temperatures will be in the 80s for all games.

Now, there's the weekend...we can finally look forward to some changes in the persistent pattern. The first true cold front of the season will be in transit as we get into the weekend. A deepening trough coming out of the Great Plains and Rockies will be digging through the Mid West, and send a September cold front our way, finally! It will take it awhile, but it seems increasingly likely that it will occur. Rain chances will respond accordingly, and increase. Saturday looks to be the better day for outdoor activities. Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy skies should prevail with an increasing onshore flow ahead of the approaching boundary. It will move into the state on Saturday, and steadily progress through the state over the weekend. The increased cloud cover and enhanced rain chances will result in a slight deduction of temperatures particularly for maximums. Morning lows on Saturday will still be in the lower 70s, but afternoon highs will be right around 90, give or take a degree. Some drier air will still be in place in the mid and upper levels, and it will be the front itself that helps to initiate convection. The trigger mechanism combined with daytime heating will produce a better scattering of mainly afternoon storms. It doesn't appear at this time that rainfall will be widespread on Saturday given the environmental set up. Of course, that brings up the question...will it rain on the ball games Saturday night? At this time, I can't promise that rain chances will be 0, but I do believe it will be dry for the most part. Given the fact that both the McNeese and LSU game are night games, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms will decrease by that time. However, with the front working into the region, some showers and storms can't be ruled out for the overnight hours. For now, I will mention just a slight chance of rain (20%) for both games. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, and into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the game. McNeese kicks off at 7p.m. and hosts Cal Poly at Cowboy Stadium, while LSU hosts West Virginia at 8p.m. in Tiger Stadium. It may be a good idea to have your rain gear handy for tailgating during the day just in case. The front crosses the forecast area during the day Sunday, and by this time the controlling ridge will have completely eroded across the region. Therefore, a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms is expected. The potential for widespread convection will finally exist, but it shouldn't be an all day deal. Better chances will occur from mid-morning to mid-afternoon depending on the timing of the front. Mostly Cloudy skies are in store for Sunday, and I will raise rain chances into the likely category. Temperatures will cool off a bit more because of the clouds and rain, and the morning low will be around 70 while afternoon highs should be in the upper 80s. It'll be nice if it rains, and it would be good timing too, because most of us will be watching the Saints game after church anyway. The Saints take on division rival Atlanta in the Superdome at Noon. Of course, no weather issues for that game. Remember that crazy wind the Saints dealt with in San Francisco? Drier and cooler, fall air will filter into the forecast area behind the front Sunday evening. Rainfall totals could be around an inch or so, with higher amounts up to 2" possible. This will be welcomed, and while every little bit helps, the drought will by no means by alleviated. Clearing skies are expected Sunday night as the drier and cooler air filters in. Lows by Monday morning will be down into the mid to upper 60s for most locations. Lower 70s should suffice at the coast.

The front pushes into the coastal waters next week, and fresh, fall air will dominate the forecast as high pressure becomes established from the NW. At this same time, possible tropical development may occur in the Caribbean Sea this weekend, and this system could move towards the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. This could create a complex weather situation down the road, but whatever forms in this region will be deflected by the nice cold front. This system will either move Westward towards Mexico or get caught up in the flow ahead of the front, and move towards Florida. At this time, there is no reason to believe this would have any impact on SW Louisiana, but it will be something to discuss next week. We will be watching the trends. We will be enjoying some very much welcomed spectacular September weather with lows well down into the 60s, with the possibility of 50s for the Northern half of the area by Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Highs will easily reach the mid 80s each day, with upper 80s likely across the I-10 corridor. The drier air in place, and a strong September sun will support a larger diurnal range. No mention of rain is in the forecast for the Monday-Wednesday period. We need the rain, but the fall weather will be enjoyable. Most of next week looks nice with high pressure anchored across the area in the wake of the front, and the idea of additional fronts on the table towards week's end as October approaches. We will be watching for fronts and tropical systems of course. Typically though, once the fronts start a-comin', this marks the end of our tropical season, although the official end of the season is November 30. We have had tropical activity in October before, but of course, nothing like the storm of a lifetime 5 years ago, Hurricane Rita. See more on that below!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  73/92  74/92  75/90  0 20 0 20 0 40
LFT   74/92  74/93  75/91  0 20 0 20 0 40
BPT   75/92  75/93  76/90  0 20 0 20 0 40
AEX  71/94  71/94  72/93  0 20 0 20 0 40
POE  72/93  71/94  72/93  0 20 0 20 0 40
ARA  75/91  75/92  75/89  0 20 0 20 0 40


Today...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 92. SSE wind 8-13 mph.

Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light SSE wind.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light SSE wind.

Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon. High 90. SSE wind becoming South 10-15 mph.


Thursday 9/23/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 2

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 6

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 9
H.I.: 94

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 12
H.I.: 99

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 88
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
9-23-10
Autumnal Equinox

Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High


Friday
9-24-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita

Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 10- High


Saturday
9-25-10

Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High


Sunday
9-26-10

Low: 70
High: 88
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 8- High


Monday
9-27-10

Low: 67
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Tuesday
9-28-10

Low: 63
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Wednesday
9-29-10

Low: 62
High: 86
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


...Tropical Update...

I will continue the look back at Hurricane Rita just below this tropical update. First, let's focus on what's going on out there right now. We have one named storm this morning. Lisa continues to fester in the Eastern Atlantic, and is still no threat to land. Meanwhile, a bit closer to home, an area of disturbed weather continues to show signs of better organization, and could be in line to become our next tropical system within a day or two. It will need to pull away from the Northern Coast of South America. It will continue churning through the Caribbean over the next few days.

Lisa...Lethargic Lisa continues to meander in the open waters of the Atlantic. Lisa is struggling to survive this morning, and this storm will be of little consequence. It will end up as a mere statistic at the end of the season. Lisa has been encountering a significant amount of wind shear over the last couple of days, really since its inception Monday. Lisa has been moving between an upper level low and a strong mid-latitude ridge over the Eastern Atlantic and Western Africa. This has interrupted the inflow of Lisa, and has helped to keep Lisa a weak tropical storm. The idea of Lisa becoming seems unlikely now. However, there is a window of opportunity for some strengthening of Lisa over the next couple of days as the shear relaxes in the short-term thanks to the lifting out of the upper level low. There is plenty of warm water in the area where Lisa currently resides, so if the shear relaxes Lisa will be in a favorable environment for said strengthening. Since Lisa is trapped in between these two synoptic features, the cyclone will move very little for the rest of the work week. By the weekend, Lisa should accelerate, and turn to the NW as steering currents become more definitive. The well-defined steering currents will exist as the ridge to the NE of Lisa strengthens, and a trough approaches from the NW. Lisa will move between these two systems, and this will help Lisa gain latitude. The window of opportunity for any strengthening will close almost as quickly as it opens later this week. The advancing trough to the NW of Lisa will increase the wind shear once again. The circulation center of Lisa will ingest the shear, and this should promote a gradual weakening trend over the weekend. Lisa will likely become a tropical depression early next week. Lisa will pose no threat to land, and will be a very inconsequential storm. Since it's on the board, let's have a look at the latest advisory on Lisa, just for old time's sake.

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory

10p.m. Wednesday, September 22, 2010

...Lethargic Lisa Lumbers a Long Way From Louisiana...

Latitude: 17.7 N

Longitude: 29.6 W

This is 390 miles WNW of the Cape Verde, Islands.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Friday, but Lisa should remain at tropical storm status. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the center.

Movement: E or 90 degrees @ 5 mph. A slow and erratic motion is anticipated through today. A NW motion with a gradual increase in forward speed in expected to commence Friday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.

Invest 95L...The system dubbed Invest 95L continues to organize over the Caribbean Sea. Squally weather and some gusty winds are undoubtedly occurring across the Caribbean region including portion of Venezuela and Colombia. The environment over the Caribbean Sea, particularly the Western Caribbean Sea is very favorable for further development. All models continue to suggest such a possibility with varying degrees of course. Models continue to gain consistency as well with the idea that this system will not be a threat to Louisiana. It still seems within reason to believe that this will be a Gulf entity, but with an advancing trough moving into the are over the weekend, it sure seems like Invest 95L will have no impact locally. Any Gulf activity will do one of two things in the expectant pattern. The front will deflect it back towards and over Florida, or generally due Westward into Mexico. There is still much speculation as to what is going to happen with Invest 95L, but I do believe it will become our next tropical customer. The next name on the 2010 list is Matthew. Without an actual system already on board, it is hard to determine where the ultimate destination for Invest 95L will be. Once it becomes a classified entity, models will initialize much better, and we can have a fixated point. When looking for tropical development in the Atlantic basin, I think what we have to do is look for trends and consistencies, and we certainly have that here. While models develop the system, they all suggest different degrees of development, yet again another example of just watching for trends. A Hurricane Hunter may investigate this system later today.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is anticipated through Friday.


Now, I continue the look back at Hurricane Rita...5 years ago! Today I will continue the Rita time line which began on the last page. I will pick up where we left off on September 22. Next, I will also briefly describe the evolution of the storm, and why and how it hit SW Louisiana and SE Texas, also why was it so strong? This blog entry will also include the actual advisory and forecast track from when Rita was at peak intensity. Coming later today and Friday there will be separate blogs concerning the information on Rita because I have so much information to display, and it is the shear magnitude of the storm that yields it's own blog entry, so as to not take away from the significance of the day.

Rita Time Line (Part 2)

-Friday, September 23, 2005 4a.m.- Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of SW Louisiana and SE Texas. It is the quiet before the storm, tropical storm force winds will be approaching the coastline shortly. The majority of residents in the forecast area have evacuated, and local law enforcements have closed off the entrances to the parish and city. Rita remains a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.

-Friday, September 23, 2005 10a.m.- Rita begins to slowly weaken, but remains a very powerful and intense hurricane. Tropical storm conditions are buffeting portions of the SE Louisiana coast, and are quickly approaching Acadiana and the coast of SW Louisiana.

-Friday, September 23, 2005 4p.m.- The massive rain shield from Rita envelops much of SW Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are overspreading the region along and South of I-10. Rita continues to weaken to category 3 status, but a massive category 5 surge is heading in the direction of Cameron Parish.

-Friday, September 23, 2005 10p.m.- Hurricane Rita is getting very close now. It has weakened a bit further to a category 3 storm with 120-125 mp winds. Sustained hurricane force winds are being experienced across a large portion of SW Louisiana including Lake Charles. Many spin-off tornadoes on the NE side of Rita's eye are occurring across SW Louisiana. Rita has wobbled between NW and NNW, and it appears evident that landfall will occur on the Louisiana side of the Sabine River somewhere between Sabine Pass and Johnson Bayou.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 2:38a.m.- Major Hurricane Rita makes landfall near Johnson Bayou in SW Cameron Parish. Rita has 120 mph winds (category 3), but wind gusts into category 5 range occur. A massive storm surge wipes out our beloved coastal communities such as Cameron and Holly Beach. Winds are sustained at over 100 mph in the cities of Lake Charles, Sulphur, Orange, and Beaumont. Major structural damage is inflicted from Beaumont to Lafayette. A storm surge of nearly 20' occurs along the coast, and pushes water all the way up the Calcasieu Ship Channel into Downtown Lake Charles.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 7a.m.- Rita moves further inland basically right up the Sabine River Valley. It is located midway between Beaumont and Jasper. Conditions are slow to improve across the area, and daylight begins to reveal the damage from the Rita. Wind gusts to hurricane force are still occurring at Lake Charles with sustained winds well into tropical storm force.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 1p.m.- Rita is downgraded to a tropical storm between Shreveport and Lufkin. Heavy rains and tropical storm force winds continue to pummel the region. The storm surge flooding continues due to the strong SE winds over the region. Everyone remains away from the area, and will not be allowed back for 2-3 weeks. There is no electricity, no services of any kind anywhere in SW Louisiana. Generator power is the only option at this time.

-Saturday, September 24, 2005 10p.m. - The storm is over. Now, the focus shifts to clean up and re-build. It is a very dark Saturday night as there are no lights on anywhere in the area. Calcasieu Parish remains closed, and all entrances to the municipalities are blockaded. Most of the places along our fragile coastline in Cameron and Vermilion Parishes are no longer there. SW Louisiana faces a long recovery process now. Rita continues to spin further North, and has weakened to a tropical depression. It continues to spread heavy rain and isolated tornadoes over North Louisiana and much of Arkansas and Mississippi.


Rita formed from a tropical wave that originated off the coast of Africa, a typical Cape Verde storm. It had a hard time materialized at first, because of less than ideal atmospheric conditions. However, on the 17th of September, conditions were more favorable for development, and a tropical depression formed near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical Storm Rita was born the next day between The Florida Keys and The Bahamas. Rita rapidly strengthened, and became a hurricane in the Florida Straits on Tuesday, September 20. Rita was in an ideal area for strengthening and had the Gulf was an area of extremely high oceanic heating content. The conditions were essentially the same for Rita as they were for Katrina 3 weeks prior. From there, you know what happened, Rita continued to strengthen becoming an unbelievable, unfathomable category 5 storm with 175 mph winds on September 21 into September 22. Rita reached peak intensity on the morning of the 22nd, and then slowly weakened from there. It made landfall on September 24 at 2:38a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds- category 3. The question is why did Rita reach such an incredible strength? The prime atmospheric conditions and the high oceanic heating content were the main culprits. High pressure was parked over the SE U.S., and this also aided in strengthening Rita. Gulf SSTs were near 90 degrees in portions of the Gulf of Mexico. The other primary question is why did Rita hit SW Louisiana? It all hinged on the synoptic set up across the Gulf Coast. High pressure had dominated our forecast for several days in September 2005, but as Rita was forming in the Atlantic it became evident that a pattern shift was looming. Models suggested a breakdown (weakening) of the ridge over the forecast area. The storm would follow the path of least resistance, and wherever the weakness was the strongest is where the storm would make landfall. This was, unfortunately right over SW Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center originally had Rita progged to strike near Corpus Christi, Texas. This is prime example of how large a forecast error can be when dealing with a hurricane.

The following is a graphic displaying the forecast track at the time of Rita's peak intensity.

To wrap it up for this portion of the look back at Rita, here is the actual text advisory as issued by the National Hurricane Center. 4a.m. Thursday, September 22, 2005.

HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY 
NUMBER 19
NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER MIAMI, FL
4 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005 
 
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC 
CATEGORY FIVE RITA MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE 
WATCH IS EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG
THE LOUISIANA COAST 
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY.  

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS 
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY 
LOUISIANA.  

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL 
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR 
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE 
WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF 
LOUISIANA EAST OF 
MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 
WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA 
FROM EAST OF 
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO 
MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH 
OF PORT MANSFIELD TO 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 
RIO SAN FERNANDO 
NORTHWARD TO THE 
RIO GRANDE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH 
MEANS THAT HURRICANE 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. 
A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT 
TROPICAL STORM 
CONDITIONS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR 
THE PROGRESS OF 
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC 
HURRICANE RITA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION 
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS
...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE 
RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  88.0 WEST 
OR ABOUT  515 MILES...
830 KM...SE OF 
GALVESTON TEXAS AND 
ABOUT  615 MILES... 990
KM...ESE OF CORPUS 
CHRISTI TEXAS.
 
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD 
THE WNW NEAR 9 MPH...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR 
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE 
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS REMAIN NEAR 175 MPH 
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES 
RITA A POTENTIALLY 
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE ON THE 
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME 
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY 
ARE LIKELY DURING THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES 
FROM THE CENTER...
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 
ESTIMATED FROM REPORTS 
BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER 
IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.  
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE
THIRD MOST INTENSE 
HURRICANE IN TERMS OF 
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.
 
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY 
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL 
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI 
AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN 
THE AREAS AFFECTED 
BY KATRINA. TIDES 
IN THOSE AREAS WILL 
INCREASE UP TO 3-4 
FEET AND BE 
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS... 
AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME 
COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS 
ASSOCIATED WITH RITA 
ARE FORECAST TO 
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL 
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. 
RITA IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-12 
INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES FROM THE 
CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO 
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS 
METROPOLITAN AREA.
AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 
5-10 INCHES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... 
AND CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA 
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT 
POSITION...24.9 N... 88.0 W.
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WNW  9 MPH.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH.  
MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE... 897 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE 
ADVISORY WILL BE 
ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 
10 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN

Look for more on Rita later today and Friday. Tomorrow is the actual anniversary of Hurricane Rita.


...Marine Forecast...


Today...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Have a great Thursday & God bless!
-DM-

Late Summer Scenario Rolls On For Now, but Changes Are in Sight...Remembering Hurricane Rita...

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Click below for the video blog discussion for Wednesday. Be sure to scroll down for the text form.




SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Aren't you just a little tired of summer? I know I am. Maybe we shouldn't complain because 5 years ago today we were bracing for the storm of a lifetime. Hurricane Rita was a monster category 5 storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico exactly 5 years ago this morning, and had its sights set on SW Louisiana. See more on Rita below the tropical update, and be sure to check back for much much more in the days ahead. Now, let's focus on the current weather. Tuesday was yet another day of above normal heat and high humidity. The typical late summer pattern is reluctant to go away. High pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature across the Gulf Coast states. It is anchored over Alabama, but is ridging into our area. Here, on the large subtropical ridge's Western flank, it has been hot and humid with an overall dry pattern in place. A few thermally induced storms have been existent during the peak heating hours, but overall a significant drought is ongoing. The anchored high pressure has resulted in drier air in the mid and upper levels, thus resulting in capping on the atmosphere. Therefore, rain chances have been no more than 20% for the last several days. The Tuesday regime reflected a continuance of the last few days. Tuesday morning minimums were in the lower 70s, and afternoon maximums reached the lower 90s for most locales. The overnight hours will be quiet with Mostly Clear skies and a bright moon above. Overnight lows will be back down into the lower 70s on average.

The pattern of persistence will prevail through Friday. This will take us right on into the official start of fall. It will continue to feel like late summer here, but will certainly not be near as hot as it could be. Record heat affected the areas with highs exceeding 100 in the days leading up to Rita. Partly Cloudy skies will be the dominant weather condition for Wednesday through Friday, with still just a slight mention of only thermally induced shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Lack of trigger mechanism will help keep much of the convective activity suppressed. The controlling high will remain in place across the Gulf Coast States; we will remain on the Western flank of this anti-cyclone. Temperatures will continue to run above normal each day with highs back into the low end of the 90s, while morning lows remain in the low to mid 70s across our part of the world. The persistent onshore flow will continue as well keeping the favorable pattern for an afternoon sea breeze in place. In short, the forecast will remain unchanged through Friday. No weather worries are expected for this week's round of High School Football games be it Thursday or Friday. Temperatures will be in the 80s during the games, with very humid conditions in place.

Changes may begin to take shape this weekend. Changes for the better, we hope! A late September trough is developing in the Northern Plains, and this trough will be digging to the ESE into the weekend. The associated cold front will dive to the SE as well, and be moving into the state as we get into the weekend. The Partly Cloudy, warm, and humid weather will continue. At the same time, the dominating ridge will begin to erode over our area to allow the aforementioned front the opportunity to move into our vicinity. This is the trigger mechanism we need to produce some much needed rainfall across the area, however, there are many factors to throw into the equation before we can get excited about the prospects of significant rainfall. The idea of significant rainfall doesn't seem likely at this juncture. While we will have ample surface moisture and the trigger mechanism in place, drier air in the mid and upper levels will keep rain chances from being too robust. Models aren't overly aggressive on convective activity at this time, but certainly with the front en route we can raise rain chances a bit. There is still some question as to how much of an impact this front will have on our area, but it should at least be close enough to raise the prospects of rain. At this time, the front should clear the area on Sunday. The chance of showers and storms will continue for Sunday ahead of the front, but drier air will take over by late in the day Sunday ending all threat of showers and storms. I couldn't rule out a shower or storm or two Saturday night for the ball games, but for the most part dry weather should be in place with the greatest risk of rain coming during the afternoon hours Saturday. Temperatures will be in the 80s to the upper 70s for the McNeese game, and follow very closely for the LSU game as well. McNeese takes on Cal Poly at 7p.m. while LSU hosts West Virginia at 8p.m. Right now, I will put all the eggs in the basket that the front will come through Sunday, although it is still not a certainty. The models are more adamant about this idea today. Weekend temperatures ahead of the cool front will continue to run in the low to mid 70s for lows, and lower 90s for highs.

Our first real taste of fall may be in store to round out the forecast period on Monday and Tuesday of next week. This should come in the wake of the advertised cold front on Sunday. Mostly Sunny skies will prevail these two days with much lower humidity, and temperatures trending to near normal or slightly below. Given the fact that this is still 6-7 days out, the shear magnitude of the front is still uncertain. Some of the forecast models suggest temperatures as cool as the lower 60s in the Lake area, but I feel it is not yet prudent to reflect this trend. I will forecast lows in the mid 60s for now, and highs will finally drop below the 90 degree threshold. Expect mid to upper 80s for highs both Monday and Tuesday. No mention of rain will be expected as this time due to strong high pressure building in behind what should be the first true cold front of the season. The long, awaited arrival of fine, fair, fall, football weather will be great, but it doesn't bode well for any significant rainfall across our landscape. In the long range, the pleasant weather that replaces our long, seemingly endless summer will continue through the middle portion of next week. Another front may approach the region around the 1st of October, but we have plenty of time to investigate this solution further.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  73/92  73/91  74/92  10 20 0 20 0 20
LFT   72/93  73/92  74/91  10 20 0 20 0 20
BPT   75/93  75/91  75/91  10 20 0 20 0 20
AEX  70/94  71/93  71/92  10 20 0 20 0 20
POE  71/94  71/93  71/92  10 20 0 20 0 20
ARA  76/91  75/91  75/90  10 20 0 20 0 20


Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 92. SSE wind 10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 73. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 91. SSE wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 74. Light SE wind.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. High 92. SSE wind 10 mph.


Wednesday 9/22/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear

Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 94

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 8
H.I.: 97


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
9-22-10

Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High


Thursday
9-23-10
Autumnal Equinox

Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 97-102
U.V.: 10- High


Friday
9-24-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita

Low: 74
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High


Saturday
9-25-10

Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 8-13
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High


Sunday
9-26-10

Low: 72
High: 89
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE/SSW 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High


Monday
9-27-10

Low: 67
High: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 10- High


Tuesday
9-28-10

Low: 64
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
H.I.: 83-88
U.V.: 10- High


...Tropical Update...

The tropics remain very active as usual here into late September now. This was certainly the case 5 years ago, as the storm of our lifetime, a storm like no other, was bearing down on SW Louisiana. Rita was a category 5 in the middle of the Gulf exactly 5 years ago today. More on Rita to follow. Fast forward to today now, we have some entities to discuss. The final advisory on Hurricane Igor has been issued. It is over the North Atlantic transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. It affected Bermuda over the weekend as a category 1 storm, and brushed by the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday. The newest customer on the menu of named systems is Tropical Storm Lisa. Lisa is over the open waters of the Eastern Atlantic, and is absolutely no threat to land. An area of disturbed weather is getting better organized in the Caribbean Sea, and will have the potential to develop over the next few days as it moves to the WNW, and it could approach the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Here's more details on each system.

Igor...Igor has become an extratropical entity. The transition was completed on Tuesday. Igor moved past Bermuda over the weekend as a category 1 storm, and glanced by the Canadian Maritimes as a transitioning tropical system, a category 1 hurricane officially, on Tuesday. It will remain a very strong post-tropical system as it moves between portions of NE Canada and Greenland for the next few days. This is the last mention of Igor. The last official advisory on Igor was written by the National Hurricane Center at 4p.m. CDT Tuesday. Since the storm is officially no longer classified a tropical system, I will not post any graphics associated with Igor. The last set of coordinates is included.

Hurricane Igor Final Advisory

4p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 21, 2010

...Igor Becomes Extratropical Entity Over the Northern Atlantic...

Latitude: 49.3 N

Longitude: 51.7 W

This was about 125 miles NNE of St. John's, Newfoundland.

Maximum Sustained Wind: 80 mph/ w higher gusts.

Movement: NNE or 25 degrees @ 39 mph.

Minimum Central Pressure: 28.05" or 950 mb.



Lisa...Tropical Storm Lisa is no threat to anyone but shipping interests in the Eastern Atlantic. Lisa is moving very little, and has not strengthened much at all in the last 24 hours since becoming classified Monday. The cyclone is a victim of weak steering currents. It is trapped between the predominant Eastern Atlantic/Western Africa subtropical ridge and and large, amplified trough over the Eastern Atlantic waters. Lisa is moving slowly to the NE this morning, but should better steering currents should become established within the next 24-48 hours, and Lisa should begin to turn move to the NW. The ridge will intensify in a couple of days or so, and this will help the steering currents. While the erratic motion leads to model inconsistencies, it seems inevitable that Lisa will remain safely away from any land masses. Lisa's environment is favorable for further strengthening over the next few days especially by the end of the work week as the ridge magnifies to the North of Lisa. The possibility of Lisa reaching hurricane status is on the table, and is reflected in the official forecast package from the National Hurricane Center. There is no need to say much about Lisa here because it is no threat to any landmass. Lisa is the season's 11th named storm, and 13th tropical cyclone overall.

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory

Tropical Storm Lisa 10p.m. CDT Tuesday, September 21, 2010

...Lisa a Long Way Away...Nearly Stationary in the Far Eastern Atlantic...

Latitude: 18.2 N

Longitude: 31.3 W

This places the center of Tropical Storm Lisa about 505 miles WNW of the Cape Verde Islands.

Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 45 miles from the center.

Movement: NE or 40 degrees @ 2 mph. A slow Northward motion is expected to commence within the next 24 hours, and will continue for the next couple of days.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.59" or 1002 mb.

Closer to home, there is an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea which continues to show signs of organization. It seems poised to become our next tropical entity within a day or two. The current outlook from the National Hurricane Center is a 50% chance of development. Models have initialized on the system, but I stress that it is hard to determine where this system will go without an actual classified system. All forecast models do suggest this area will develop, and I see no reason to believe that it won't. The environs over the Caribbean Sea are very conducive for development. The Western Caribbean in particular is a hotbed for development this time of year. Heavy rainfall will occur for the next several days across the Windward Islands, the Netherlands Antilles, and the Northern coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. The steering currents for what is dubbed as Invest 95L will carry this system towards portions of Central America, Belize, or the Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days. From there, most models suggest this system will enter the Gulf of Mexico, but there are a plethora of solutions beyond that point. It is not prudent at this time to wax eloquent on the future prognostication of Invest 95L. Should this system indeed reach the Gulf over the weekend, conditions will be favorable for development, but at the same time a frontal trough will be approaching the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to a very complex forecast with regards to the future track of Invest 95L. The next name on the list is Matthew. Stay tuned!

Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.


...Remembering Rita...

This special section is the beginning of a look back at Hurricane Rita.

Let's start with the evolution of the storm.

-Saturday, September 17, 2005 10p.m.- T.D. 18 formed to the East of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

-Sunday, September 18, 2005 4p.m- T.D. 18 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Rita between the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas.

Rita continued to steadily strengthen as she neared South Florida and the Keys. Watches and Warnings were issued for this area as well as portions of Cuba on the 18th.

-Tuesday, September 20, 2005 10a.m.  - Rita strengthens into a hurricane as it approaches the Florida Straits. Rita began a period of rapid intensification as atmospheric conditions were ideal over the SE Gulf of Mexico.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 1a.m.- Rita became a major hurricane with category 3 winds of 115 mph as it moved into the SE Gulf of Mexico to the West of Key West, FL.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 4p.m.- Hurricane Rita becomes a catastrophic category 5 hurricane w/ 165 mph winds over the Central Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Watches were issued for the Texas and Louisiana coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana. At this time, the official forecast track still took the eye of Rita inland somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Evacuations began voluntarily at first for many coastal locations.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 7p.m.- Rita becomes the third strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin (stronger than Katrina). Maximum sustained winds were near 165 mph w/ higher gusts, and the barometric pressure had dropped to an incredible 26.55" or 898 mb.

-Wednesday, September 21, 2005 10p.m.- Rita maxes out in intensity with winds at an incredible 175 mph. Wind gusts to near 200 mph were reported. Hurricane hunter aircraft record a gust over 230 mph at flight level. At this time, Rita began to wobble more to the NW, and this would become the eventual motion of direction in the overnight hours. Model guidance shifted the forecast track to between Galveston and Vermilion Bay with most models clustered near Sabine Pass. The NHC still pegged Galveston for landfall at this time.

-Thursday, September 22, 2005 4a.m.- The Hurricane Watch was extended Eastward from Cameron to Intracoastal City due to the model shift, and turn to the NW by Rita. Winds remained in the category 5 range at this time. For the first time in history, a mandatory evacuation for all of Calcasieu Parish was called. Local officials urged everyone to leave the area as Rita was bearing down on the NW Gulf of Mexico.

-Thursday, September 22, 2005 10a.m.- A Hurricane Warning is issued from Port O'Connor, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. Evacuations begin full throttle. Rita leveled off during the morning of the 22nd, and still maintained category 5 intensity with 165 mph winds at this advisory.

-Thursday, September 22, 2005 10p.m.- Rita barrels its way towards SW Louisiana. Rita is a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.

This takes us up to date. The time line will continue tomorrow. Also, tomorrow as we continue our look back at Rita, I will discuss in depth the evolution of Rita, and why it was so strong, and why it came here. I will also include the official advisory from when Rita was at peak intensity, as well as the forecast track at the actual time of peak intensity.


...Marine Forecast...


Today...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday & Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-