Sunday, August 29, 2010
The following is the first of three blog posts today on Hurricane Katrina. This look back at Katrina comes on the 5 year anniversary of the terrible storm. It was not only the worst natural disaster in the history of this state, and the Gulf Coast region. It was also the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. It also became the worst man-made disaster in U.S. history as well as the levees broke in the New Orleans area flooding 80% of the city. This look back at Katrina will look at everything from the forecasting of the storm to the impacts to the aftermath. It will be tough to read for most, but it is worth looking back. Please take a moment to pause today and pray as we commemorate this somber anniversary.
The first part of my look back at Katrina follows.
Today is officially the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Katrina
is still talked about to this day, and it along with OUR storm, which we'll
remember next month, Rita, are the worst natural disasters to ever
strike our great nation. There is so much that is still be learned from
Katrina, and research will be conducted for many many years. While most
of the focus with Katrina from media coverage et. al centered on New
Orleans, what happened in other parts of SE Louisiana and Southern
Mississippi and Alabama can't be forgotten. The death toll from Katrina
was nearly 1,300. Over 1,000 of these deaths occurred in Louisiana.
While
I want to discuss and remember Rita more than Katrina, because Rita has
more effects locally, and was the most devastating storm in our area's
history, the anniversary of Katrina can't pass without us taking a
moment to pause and reflect on the tragedy that occurred in late August
2005. We remember those who perished, and had their lives torn apart by
this storm. Many of us have friends/family that were affected directly
by the storm, as do I. Many areas of the great city of New Orleans, will
likely never be the same again, and the same can be said for coastal
Mississippi. Some meteorological insight involved
with the storm itself will be included. I will conclude this post with a very "chilling"
manuscript from the National Weather Service Office in Slidell, LA. This
was issued on Sunday, August, 28, 2005 shortly after 10a.m. I still get
teary-eyed when I read this.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING
DAMAGE EXPECTED....HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH
UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF
1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER.
AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME
NON-FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED.
ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED.
CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING
SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS
WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL
WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY
INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES.
SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS
WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK
EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL
LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS
DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY
MODERN STANDARDS.THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY
DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS
WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
What are your memories of Katrina??? Post your comments, thoughts, or questions. Part 2 is immediately above this post.
-DM-
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Friday, August 27, 2010
Late August Breath of Fresh Air...
Thursday, August 26, 2010
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Is this a preview of fall? Is this a sign of an early fall? These answers will come in due time, but either way it's nice to have a brief reprieve from the otherwise Absolutely Awful August heat and humidity. This weather will likely not serve up any complaints, that's for sure. The question is how long will it stick around, because you know summer isn't over by any means. This pleasantly hot day featured Mostly Sunny skies and morning low temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the forecast area, while afternoon highs easily reached the 90s, with most locations in the low to mid 90s. However, with the bonus of the lower humidity the apparent temperature was essentially the same as the actual temperature. The nice conditions will be more noticeable for the overnight hours and through mid-morning Friday. Tonight should be the coolest night around these parts since late May. Low temperatures should average the upper 60s tonight, but the coolest locales could see readings as cool as 63 or 64. Of course, closer to the coast it'll remain in the lower to middle 70s, but even there it'll feel much better given the dryness of the air.
I could use the word fantastic for this Friday, at least when you compare it to the typical SW Louisiana late August standards. The nice dry air will remain in place as a NE flow at the surface continues to usher in the fresh air. Temperatures will warm up rather quickly, and with Mostly Sunny skies highs will easily surpass the 90 degree mark once again. The late August sun will warm temperatures into the low to mid 90s. These readings are at or just above the normal for late August. Yes, it'll still be hot, but take a moment to enjoy this anomalous breath of fresh air. Controlling high pressure at the surface and aloft will quell any shower and thunderstorm activity. The dry air in place will once again result in the apparent temperature (heat index) being the same as or very close to the actual temperature. A little very humidity will creep back into the forecast beginning Friday night as a transition back to a muggy regime begins, but even still it should be very pleasant for late August through early Saturday. Clear skies and no mention of rain is expected for all of the High School Football Jamborees Friday night. Overnight lows under the aforementioned clear skies, and very light or nearly calm winds should be very close to the 70 degree mark on average.
The weekend will not turn out to be as nice as the end of this work week has been. However, don't fret too much. It seems as though the earlier projections for a rather wet weekend will not come to fruition. That being said, rain chances will still need to be introduced to the forecast once again. This will occur on Saturday as moisture returns off the Gulf in advance of what will essentially be a warm front. This is the same front that came through earlier this week, and has provided this breath of fresh air. It won't be a warm front in the classic sense like we get in the winter time, but it will be by definition. The frontal zone has been stationary for a few days now, and will begin to retreat Northward as an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle. This will bring back the humidity in earnest with a long fetch onshore flow developing. This onshore flow will result in the return of rich, tropical air in the lower levels. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday. It will basically turn out to be a typical summer day in SW Louisiana with about an average chance of convection during the peak heating hours. Expect Saturday highs to reach normal levels in the lower 90s once again. Sunday will still be a day that features rain chances in the likely category as the deep tropical air mass continues to work its way into the region, and the elongated trough lifts Northward as well. This synoptic feature along with the effects of daytime heating will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Rain will be heavy at times, and areas that receive a direct hit could receive 1-2" of rain, but overall amounts should be an inch or less. We'll take any rain we can get. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are in the offing, and it'll certainly be back to feeling like late August. Morning lows should be back into the mid 70s, while afternoon highs will top out around 90 or so.
Next week's weather scenario looks to be one that will resemble a late August/early September pattern. Rain chances will be at or just above average Monday-Wednesday. Daily fluctuations are expected as the deep tropical air mass continues to pump in over the area in the wake of the lifting elongated trough. Daytime heating will also organize the usual sea breeze, and this will in turn help storm initiate storms especially after noon. The presence of the inverted trough will help keep rain chances at or just above normal for the end of August, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The same regime controls the area's weather for Tuesday and Wednesday with a 30-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies expected. By mid-week, high pressure off to our NE will begin building Westward, and other minor disturbances rounding the periphery of the ridge may work their work into our area, to result in a slight increase in rain chances yet again for the first of September. All in all though, this forecast won't stray away from the typical pattern for this time of year. Expect seasonal temperatures each day as well with lows in the mid 70s and highs in the mid 90s as a general rule, surely there will be some upper 90s in the area. Rounding out the forecast period on Thursday, the atmosphere begins to dry out again as the aforementioned high pressure to our NE becomes the dominant weather feature. This will help to dismantle the deep, tropical air mass from the first half of the week. This will result in more sunshine with generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies expected. As usual, there will be a correlation between the building ridge and the temperatures. High temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 90s, and morning lows will continue their trend of mid to upper 70s. Does this sound like deja vu from just a few days ago or what? The dry pattern should carry us into Labor Day weekend, and the hot September sun will be beating down. The early projections call for limited rain chances for the holiday weekend with ridging persisting across much of the Gulf Coastal Plain. No sign of a true cold front yet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 67/93 70/93 74/90 0 0 0 30 30 60
LFT 67/93 69/93 73/90 0 0 0 30 30 60
BPT 69/94 71/93 74/91 0 0 0 30 30 60
AEX 64/95 65/94 69/92 0 0 0 20 20 40
POE 64/95 65/94 69/92 0 0 0 20 20 40
ARA 68/93 70/92 73/89 0 0 0 30 30 60
Tonight...Clear and Pleasant. Low 67. Calm wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny. High 93. NE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 70. Light East wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely especially in the afternoon. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday 8/27/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Refreshing to Say the Least
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
H.I.: 88
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 93
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 89
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 67
High: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 70
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Low: 74
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-1-10
2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav
Low: 76
High: 92
Rain: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
9-2-10
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropical Update...
The tropics remain very active. There are 2 named storms on this Thursday night, and we are on the verge of having a third one. The slow start to the season is quickly becoming a fading memory. We are also on the verge on having the season's first major hurricane, in Danielle.
First, let's start with Danielle. Danielle continues its steady state strengthening trend, and is on the verge of becoming the season's first major hurricane of category 3 or higher status. Danielle now has a clearly visible eye, although it appears to be more ragged tonight likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle. This is typically a sign of strengthening, and there is no reason to believe Danielle won't continue strengthening for the next day or two. The environment ahead of Danielle certainly supports the idea of the cyclone becoming a major hurricane Friday. Danielle will remain over the open waters of the Central Atlantic and as a trough approaches from the West, Danielle will continue to gain latitude as it takes on a more Northerly component of motion. This will bring the cyclone to the East of Bermuda this weekend. The prognosis of Bermuda receiving the fringe effects of Danielle continue to hold firm. There is absolutely no change in the forecast philosophy from 24 hours ago. Danielle will remain in an area of warm SSTs into the weekend, and this will support the intensification into a major hurricane.
By late in the weekend, Danielle will start to turn to the right (NE) and accelerate as it feels the influence of the approaching Eastern U.S. trough. This will also cause Danielle to embark on a weakening trend, and start it on its way to a slow death over the colder waters of the North Atlantic early next week. Danielle will transition from the season's first major hurricane over the weekend to an extratropical entity by the end of the forecast period. There is some uncertainty as to how much Danielle will strengthen before it starts to decay, but it is certainly possible that Danielle could reach category 4 status briefly. Category 3 intensity is shown on the official forecast at this time, however, in this case, the strength of the storm itself is irrelevant because of its minimal impact on any landmasses. Swells and larger waves will move to the W towards the Eastern Seaboard, and begin affecting the coastline sometime Friday. This will be the extent of the effects of Danielle on the continental United States. Some squally weather, and increased winds and seas will affect Bermuda over the weekend, but the tiny island nation can certainly exhale it would appear. For those plotting along at home, the latest official forecast track follows.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, August 26, 2010
...Danielle on the Cusp of Becoming Season's First Major Storm...Fish Beware...
Latitude: 25.8 N
Longitude: 57.6 W
This places the clearly visible eye of Hurricane Danielle 625 miles SE of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 mph w/ higher gusts- Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Further strengthening is expected Friday, and Danielle will more than likely become the season's first major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 205 miles from the eye of the hurricane.
Movement: NW or 315 degrees @ 12mph. Danielle's forward speed has slowed a bit in the last 24 hours, and it should maintain this speed over the next few days. Danielle will make a gradual turn to the NNW and North through the weekend. On this track, Danielle will safely bypass Bermuda to the East.
Minimum Central Pressure: 28.50" or 965 mb.
"My Name is Earl"...Tropical Storm Earl continues to churn in the far Eastern Atlantic in an area that was recently visited by Danielle. Earl has had a hard time holding together today, and in fact it lost most of its deep convection Thursday afternoon. However, Earl appears to finally be getting better organized, and could be its way to becoming our next strengthening tropical entity. The prospects for strengthening are good, because Earl will be moving into very favorable environs through the weekend. Warm water awaits Earl as he moves further West, and the environment is one that is essentially null and void of wind shear. Earl seems poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification, and could very well be a hurricane over the weekend. It is currently still a minimal tropical storm, but I suspect that the next time I discuss Earl we might be talking about a far more severe entity.
Earl has a large circulation, but the storm as a whole is still a bit out of sorts as it begins its maturation process. Earl will likely be a very large cyclone in a few days. As far as the future track of Earl is concerned, the prognosis is very good for the United States, and most of the Caribbean landmasses as well. Earl is moving due West at this time as it continues to be steered around the southern flank of a large Saharan Subtropical ridge. This controlling ridge will hold firm for several more days, and keep Earl on a Westerly heading. As Earl moves further West, it will move away from the influences of the high to its North, and therefore Earl is expected to make a turn to the WNW or NW early next week when it feels a weakness in the ridge. The official forecast track keeps Earl away from all landmasses, moving just North of the Lesser Antilles late Sunday into Monday. In about 5 days at the end of the forecast period, Earl is expected to be a major hurricane and should be somewhere between Jamaica and Bermuda. All of the model guidance offers a very good consensus and suggests that Earl will continue to move further to the NW and eventually North later next week, and follow in the footsteps of Danielle and become a fish storm. However, the forecast track could ultimately lead to Earl becoming a more significant threat to Bermuda sometime next week. The chances of direct impact in the U.S. seems very slim at this point. The latest NHC info for Earl follows as well.
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, August 26, 2010
...Earl Starting to Get Better Organized...Should Become a Hurricane This Weekend...
Latitude: 15.5 N
Longitude: 40.2 W
This is 1,525 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Earl should become the season's third hurricane this weekend. Tropical storm force winds currently extend out to 85 miles from the center.
Movement: West or 280 degrees @ 17 mph. Earl will continue racing off to the West for the next few days, before making a gradual turn to the WNW or NW early next week.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.62" or 1003 mb.
Finally, yet another vigorous tropical wave has emerged off the West Coast of Africa. This wave came off of Africa Wednesday, and is currently located about 350 miles SE of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. This area of showers and storms has become better organized Thursday night, and conditions are conducive for further development. It won't take much at this time for this system to become the season's 8th tropical system. There is a high chance of this happening within the next 24 hours. It will continue moving Westward around 15-20 mph. It is being steered by the same anti-cyclone that has Earl racing off to the West at this time. I fully expect this system to become Fiona over the weekend. It is far too early to speculate where this system will ultimately wind up, however, the early model consensus suggests that it will follow closely in the path of its predecessors. The current of the flow left behind by Danielle and Earl may ultimately dictate the path of the future Fiona.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
In closing out the tropical section today, here's some hurricane history for you briefly...On this date 18 years ago, August 26, 1992..Category 3 storm Hurricane Andrew slammed into the Louisiana coast 2 days after making landfall near Homestead, Florida as only the third landfalling category 5 hurricane in recorded history. Andrew made landfall just SW of Morgan City with 115 mph winds. Andrew began weakening just before landfall, as he had 140 mph just about 24 hours before he made his landfall in South Central Louisiana. The damage from Andrew was far greater over South Florida than it was here in Louisiana, but of course it still caused problems in the Bayou State. In all, Andrew caused $26.5 billion damage combined from Florida and Louisiana. At the time, Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:06a.m. 11:05p.m.
High: 4:26a.m. 5:16p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Low: 73
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 61-1917
High: 92
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1902
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.95"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 37.19"
Record: 2.70"- 1948
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:41p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Full Moon- Thursday September 23
Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Is this a preview of fall? Is this a sign of an early fall? These answers will come in due time, but either way it's nice to have a brief reprieve from the otherwise Absolutely Awful August heat and humidity. This weather will likely not serve up any complaints, that's for sure. The question is how long will it stick around, because you know summer isn't over by any means. This pleasantly hot day featured Mostly Sunny skies and morning low temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s across the forecast area, while afternoon highs easily reached the 90s, with most locations in the low to mid 90s. However, with the bonus of the lower humidity the apparent temperature was essentially the same as the actual temperature. The nice conditions will be more noticeable for the overnight hours and through mid-morning Friday. Tonight should be the coolest night around these parts since late May. Low temperatures should average the upper 60s tonight, but the coolest locales could see readings as cool as 63 or 64. Of course, closer to the coast it'll remain in the lower to middle 70s, but even there it'll feel much better given the dryness of the air.
I could use the word fantastic for this Friday, at least when you compare it to the typical SW Louisiana late August standards. The nice dry air will remain in place as a NE flow at the surface continues to usher in the fresh air. Temperatures will warm up rather quickly, and with Mostly Sunny skies highs will easily surpass the 90 degree mark once again. The late August sun will warm temperatures into the low to mid 90s. These readings are at or just above the normal for late August. Yes, it'll still be hot, but take a moment to enjoy this anomalous breath of fresh air. Controlling high pressure at the surface and aloft will quell any shower and thunderstorm activity. The dry air in place will once again result in the apparent temperature (heat index) being the same as or very close to the actual temperature. A little very humidity will creep back into the forecast beginning Friday night as a transition back to a muggy regime begins, but even still it should be very pleasant for late August through early Saturday. Clear skies and no mention of rain is expected for all of the High School Football Jamborees Friday night. Overnight lows under the aforementioned clear skies, and very light or nearly calm winds should be very close to the 70 degree mark on average.
The weekend will not turn out to be as nice as the end of this work week has been. However, don't fret too much. It seems as though the earlier projections for a rather wet weekend will not come to fruition. That being said, rain chances will still need to be introduced to the forecast once again. This will occur on Saturday as moisture returns off the Gulf in advance of what will essentially be a warm front. This is the same front that came through earlier this week, and has provided this breath of fresh air. It won't be a warm front in the classic sense like we get in the winter time, but it will be by definition. The frontal zone has been stationary for a few days now, and will begin to retreat Northward as an elongated trough of low pressure stretching from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle. This will bring back the humidity in earnest with a long fetch onshore flow developing. This onshore flow will result in the return of rich, tropical air in the lower levels. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours on Saturday. It will basically turn out to be a typical summer day in SW Louisiana with about an average chance of convection during the peak heating hours. Expect Saturday highs to reach normal levels in the lower 90s once again. Sunday will still be a day that features rain chances in the likely category as the deep tropical air mass continues to work its way into the region, and the elongated trough lifts Northward as well. This synoptic feature along with the effects of daytime heating will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Rain will be heavy at times, and areas that receive a direct hit could receive 1-2" of rain, but overall amounts should be an inch or less. We'll take any rain we can get. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are in the offing, and it'll certainly be back to feeling like late August. Morning lows should be back into the mid 70s, while afternoon highs will top out around 90 or so.
Next week's weather scenario looks to be one that will resemble a late August/early September pattern. Rain chances will be at or just above average Monday-Wednesday. Daily fluctuations are expected as the deep tropical air mass continues to pump in over the area in the wake of the lifting elongated trough. Daytime heating will also organize the usual sea breeze, and this will in turn help storm initiate storms especially after noon. The presence of the inverted trough will help keep rain chances at or just above normal for the end of August, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. The same regime controls the area's weather for Tuesday and Wednesday with a 30-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms each day with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies expected. By mid-week, high pressure off to our NE will begin building Westward, and other minor disturbances rounding the periphery of the ridge may work their work into our area, to result in a slight increase in rain chances yet again for the first of September. All in all though, this forecast won't stray away from the typical pattern for this time of year. Expect seasonal temperatures each day as well with lows in the mid 70s and highs in the mid 90s as a general rule, surely there will be some upper 90s in the area. Rounding out the forecast period on Thursday, the atmosphere begins to dry out again as the aforementioned high pressure to our NE becomes the dominant weather feature. This will help to dismantle the deep, tropical air mass from the first half of the week. This will result in more sunshine with generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies expected. As usual, there will be a correlation between the building ridge and the temperatures. High temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 90s, and morning lows will continue their trend of mid to upper 70s. Does this sound like deja vu from just a few days ago or what? The dry pattern should carry us into Labor Day weekend, and the hot September sun will be beating down. The early projections call for limited rain chances for the holiday weekend with ridging persisting across much of the Gulf Coastal Plain. No sign of a true cold front yet.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 67/93 70/93 74/90 0 0 0 30 30 60
LFT 67/93 69/93 73/90 0 0 0 30 30 60
BPT 69/94 71/93 74/91 0 0 0 30 30 60
AEX 64/95 65/94 69/92 0 0 0 20 20 40
POE 64/95 65/94 69/92 0 0 0 20 20 40
ARA 68/93 70/92 73/89 0 0 0 30 30 60
Tonight...Clear and Pleasant. Low 67. Calm wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny. High 93. NE wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 70. Light East wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Saturday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10 mph.
Sunday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with showers & thunderstorms likely especially in the afternoon. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Friday 8/27/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Refreshing to Say the Least
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 7
H.I.: 88
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 93
6p.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 89
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 4
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 67
High: 93
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 70
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Low: 74
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-1-10
2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav
Low: 76
High: 92
Rain: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 10- High
Thursday
9-2-10
Low: 76
High: 96
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 103-108
U.V.: 11- Very High
The tropics remain very active. There are 2 named storms on this Thursday night, and we are on the verge of having a third one. The slow start to the season is quickly becoming a fading memory. We are also on the verge on having the season's first major hurricane, in Danielle.
First, let's start with Danielle. Danielle continues its steady state strengthening trend, and is on the verge of becoming the season's first major hurricane of category 3 or higher status. Danielle now has a clearly visible eye, although it appears to be more ragged tonight likely due to an eyewall replacement cycle. This is typically a sign of strengthening, and there is no reason to believe Danielle won't continue strengthening for the next day or two. The environment ahead of Danielle certainly supports the idea of the cyclone becoming a major hurricane Friday. Danielle will remain over the open waters of the Central Atlantic and as a trough approaches from the West, Danielle will continue to gain latitude as it takes on a more Northerly component of motion. This will bring the cyclone to the East of Bermuda this weekend. The prognosis of Bermuda receiving the fringe effects of Danielle continue to hold firm. There is absolutely no change in the forecast philosophy from 24 hours ago. Danielle will remain in an area of warm SSTs into the weekend, and this will support the intensification into a major hurricane.
By late in the weekend, Danielle will start to turn to the right (NE) and accelerate as it feels the influence of the approaching Eastern U.S. trough. This will also cause Danielle to embark on a weakening trend, and start it on its way to a slow death over the colder waters of the North Atlantic early next week. Danielle will transition from the season's first major hurricane over the weekend to an extratropical entity by the end of the forecast period. There is some uncertainty as to how much Danielle will strengthen before it starts to decay, but it is certainly possible that Danielle could reach category 4 status briefly. Category 3 intensity is shown on the official forecast at this time, however, in this case, the strength of the storm itself is irrelevant because of its minimal impact on any landmasses. Swells and larger waves will move to the W towards the Eastern Seaboard, and begin affecting the coastline sometime Friday. This will be the extent of the effects of Danielle on the continental United States. Some squally weather, and increased winds and seas will affect Bermuda over the weekend, but the tiny island nation can certainly exhale it would appear. For those plotting along at home, the latest official forecast track follows.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, August 26, 2010
...Danielle on the Cusp of Becoming Season's First Major Storm...Fish Beware...
Latitude: 25.8 N
Longitude: 57.6 W
This places the clearly visible eye of Hurricane Danielle 625 miles SE of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 mph w/ higher gusts- Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Further strengthening is expected Friday, and Danielle will more than likely become the season's first major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 50 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 205 miles from the eye of the hurricane.
Movement: NW or 315 degrees @ 12mph. Danielle's forward speed has slowed a bit in the last 24 hours, and it should maintain this speed over the next few days. Danielle will make a gradual turn to the NNW and North through the weekend. On this track, Danielle will safely bypass Bermuda to the East.
Minimum Central Pressure: 28.50" or 965 mb.
"My Name is Earl"...Tropical Storm Earl continues to churn in the far Eastern Atlantic in an area that was recently visited by Danielle. Earl has had a hard time holding together today, and in fact it lost most of its deep convection Thursday afternoon. However, Earl appears to finally be getting better organized, and could be its way to becoming our next strengthening tropical entity. The prospects for strengthening are good, because Earl will be moving into very favorable environs through the weekend. Warm water awaits Earl as he moves further West, and the environment is one that is essentially null and void of wind shear. Earl seems poised to undergo a period of rapid intensification, and could very well be a hurricane over the weekend. It is currently still a minimal tropical storm, but I suspect that the next time I discuss Earl we might be talking about a far more severe entity.
Earl has a large circulation, but the storm as a whole is still a bit out of sorts as it begins its maturation process. Earl will likely be a very large cyclone in a few days. As far as the future track of Earl is concerned, the prognosis is very good for the United States, and most of the Caribbean landmasses as well. Earl is moving due West at this time as it continues to be steered around the southern flank of a large Saharan Subtropical ridge. This controlling ridge will hold firm for several more days, and keep Earl on a Westerly heading. As Earl moves further West, it will move away from the influences of the high to its North, and therefore Earl is expected to make a turn to the WNW or NW early next week when it feels a weakness in the ridge. The official forecast track keeps Earl away from all landmasses, moving just North of the Lesser Antilles late Sunday into Monday. In about 5 days at the end of the forecast period, Earl is expected to be a major hurricane and should be somewhere between Jamaica and Bermuda. All of the model guidance offers a very good consensus and suggests that Earl will continue to move further to the NW and eventually North later next week, and follow in the footsteps of Danielle and become a fish storm. However, the forecast track could ultimately lead to Earl becoming a more significant threat to Bermuda sometime next week. The chances of direct impact in the U.S. seems very slim at this point. The latest NHC info for Earl follows as well.
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory
10p.m. Thursday, August 26, 2010
...Earl Starting to Get Better Organized...Should Become a Hurricane This Weekend...
Latitude: 15.5 N
Longitude: 40.2 W
This is 1,525 miles E of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Maximum Sustained Wind: 45 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Earl should become the season's third hurricane this weekend. Tropical storm force winds currently extend out to 85 miles from the center.
Movement: West or 280 degrees @ 17 mph. Earl will continue racing off to the West for the next few days, before making a gradual turn to the WNW or NW early next week.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.62" or 1003 mb.
Finally, yet another vigorous tropical wave has emerged off the West Coast of Africa. This wave came off of Africa Wednesday, and is currently located about 350 miles SE of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands. This area of showers and storms has become better organized Thursday night, and conditions are conducive for further development. It won't take much at this time for this system to become the season's 8th tropical system. There is a high chance of this happening within the next 24 hours. It will continue moving Westward around 15-20 mph. It is being steered by the same anti-cyclone that has Earl racing off to the West at this time. I fully expect this system to become Fiona over the weekend. It is far too early to speculate where this system will ultimately wind up, however, the early model consensus suggests that it will follow closely in the path of its predecessors. The current of the flow left behind by Danielle and Earl may ultimately dictate the path of the future Fiona.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.
In closing out the tropical section today, here's some hurricane history for you briefly...On this date 18 years ago, August 26, 1992..Category 3 storm Hurricane Andrew slammed into the Louisiana coast 2 days after making landfall near Homestead, Florida as only the third landfalling category 5 hurricane in recorded history. Andrew made landfall just SW of Morgan City with 115 mph winds. Andrew began weakening just before landfall, as he had 140 mph just about 24 hours before he made his landfall in South Central Louisiana. The damage from Andrew was far greater over South Florida than it was here in Louisiana, but of course it still caused problems in the Bayou State. In all, Andrew caused $26.5 billion damage combined from Florida and Louisiana. At the time, Andrew was the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Sunday...East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 11:06a.m. 11:05p.m.
High: 4:26a.m. 5:16p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.50'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Low: 73
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 61-1917
High: 92
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1902
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.95"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 37.19"
Record: 2.70"- 1948
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 73
High: 87
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 94
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:47a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:41p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Full Moon- Thursday September 23
Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-
Thursday, August 26, 2010
A Couple of Almost Cool Mornings...Tracking Danielle & Now Earl...
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The drier air has taken over, and now encompasses the entire forecast area. It will be nice to have a reprieve from the excessively hot and humid weather that has dominated the forecast all summer for a couple days. The temperatures being experienced during this breath of fresh air are certainly not earth-shattering by any means. In actuality, this weak cool front has only set us back to normal for late August. In this awful summer of 2010, normal is a good thing. The downside is that there is virtually no chance of any much needed rainfall from the typical daily dose of showers and thunderstorms we depend on this time of year. The high pressure in the wake of the feeble frontal zone has suppressed any vertical growth from any cumulus clouds that form during the heat of the day. Clouds were even a rare item on Wednesday with the drier air in place. Afternoon highs reached the low to mid 90s for most locations, but again this is normal in late August. The drier and somewhat cooler air will be more noticeable overnight and through sunrise Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool off at a faster than usual clip thanks to the lower dew points as initiated by the offshore flow. Many locations will dip below the 70 degree mark for the first time since May. While it's not much, it's a step in the right direction as we head towards September. The rest of us will easily see lower 70s with clear skies and nearly calm winds in place.
A similar weather regime is slated for Thursday with the dry, subsident flow in place. The early morning upper 60s and lower 70s will warm into the low to mid 90s by the afternoon hours, but the heat index will literally be non-existent thanks to the lower humidity. Cloud cover will be at a minimum, and there will be no chance of any rainfall yet again. While it will be nice by late August standards over land areas, there will be some action ongoing in the Gulf waters. The old frontal boundary remains nearly stationary over that area, and there is a persistent area of showers and storms as well. There are still some signs of weak cyclogenesis occurring within the next 24-48 hours as the frontal zone meanders about. An elongated trough will co-exist with the quasi-stationary boundary, and this will ultimately essentially cause the front to turn into a warm front. This transition will begin on Thursday, having virtually no effect on our weather in the short-term. An offshore flow will continue through Thursday night and into Friday morning, thus the pleasant late August weather will continue for a short while longer with upper 60s to around 70 for minimums under clear skies once again. Don't get used to the comfort!
The moisture will continue to pool in the offshore waters on Friday, but land areas will continue to remain dry. Initially, a subtle increase in low-level moisture will occur as the transitioning boundary lifts slowly Northward, and the weak surface low drifts Westward. This will keep all shower and thunderstorm activity confined to the coastal waters mainly to the South and East of the aforementioned synoptic scale features. Another pleasantly hot (if there is such a thing) afternoon is on tap for Friday with highs in the lower to middle 90s easily amassed. I suppose an isolated shower or storm or two could occur during the peak heating hours especially nearest the coast where the deeper moisture will be in closer proximity with the boundary lifting Northward, but this is a minuscule proposition, and is not worth noting in the official forecast at this time. The weather looks good for all the High School Football Jamborees across the area. It will be warm, but no threat of rain exists. Expect temperatures during this time frame to be in the 80s during the evening hours, before falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the scope of the forecast area heading into the final Saturday of August. This will be the last of the late August pleasantry.
The complex portion of the forecast lies within the weekend. The complexities come from the developments in the Gulf. The warm front like feature will continue lifting Northward through Saturday ushering in a return of the deep tropical air. This will bring back rain chances to the forecast across the area, with the best chances initially along and South of the I-10 corridor. It appears now that most of the widespread and heavier activity will remain suppressed over the coastal waters for one more day on Saturday as the weak surface low traverses the warm Gulf waters from East to West. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that this aforementioned low could garner some tropical characteristics, and try to develop further. Though, it seems unlikely to happen at this point, it is something we must watch closely for. This time of year it is always possible that a tropical system can form from an old frontal boundary if it sags into the Gulf waters, so this idea can't be ignored. Nevertheless, the weak surface reflection should evolve, and move slowly W or WSW towards SE Texas through Sunday. This will aid in moisture increase across the area, thus another reason to validate the return of rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms on Saturday will mostly be scattered in nature, and will be thermally induced for the most part. It should essentially be a normal late August day. The pleasant air of the early morning hours will quickly go by the wayside, and the humidity returns in earnest during the afternoon as maximums reach the lower 90s. Heat indices will be around 100, so it'll be back to feeling all nasty and junk. Rain chances increase further for Sunday, and this seems like the most likely day to receive rain over the course of this forecast period. The moist axis will be well established by this time with the weak surface low situated to the West of the area. This will keep a deep, moist, tropical air mass in place across the area, and the end result will be off and on rain and storms on Sunday. Rain chances will be in the likely category, and the area could stand to see 1-2" of rain at this time, but given the ongoing drought conditions in place a flooding problem is not expected. Further fine tuning is expected as we head into the weekend. The morning lows will be in the mid 70s, while afternoon highs remain just shy of the 90 degree mark. A stiff onshore flow is expected as well given the associated pressure differences associated with the Gulf low and re-building high pressure to our North.
The end of the forecast period Monday-Wednesday is more straightforward. Monday will still offer up a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture influx hangs around for another day. The actual surface reflection should be over Central Texas. This will keep the Gulf wide open to send more rich tropical air in the lower levels over the area. The effects of daytime heating will also help conjure up an above normal crop of mainly afternoon showers and storms. The rainfall should not be as widespread or as heavy Monday due to the fact that a re-building ridge will be in transit over the area. This will begin to dry out the atmosphere in the mid and upper levels initially. More sunshine is on tap for Monday, and temperatures should respond accordingly. After highs at or just below the 90 degree mark on Sunday, temperatures will creep back into the lower to middle 90s by Monday. This will come after morning lows in the usual mid to upper 70s. All in all, it should be a fairly typical late August day. August comes to an end on Tuesday, and it will likely end on a dry and hotter than normal note. High pressure will build in at the surface as well by this time, and this will essentially shut off any chance of any natural air conditioning. An isolated storm or two is possible Tuesday, but if you get rain consider yourself mighty lucky. The chances of rain for Tuesday are too negligible to mention at this time. Expect lows in the mid 70s, and highs in the mid 90s with heat indices exceeding the 100 degree mark and likely at least approaching the danger category during peak heating hours. Wednesday is the start of September, if you can believe that! September should start with high pressure in control, with virtually no chance for showers and storms and above normal temperatures. It will be very resemblent of the summer of 2010 with lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs in the mid to upper 90s, and heat indices at or exceeding the 105 degree danger threshold. In the extended, dry and hotter than usual weather should prevail as we head into the all important Labor Day weekend.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 70/95 68/94 71/92 0 0 0 10 10 30
LFT 70/95 69/95 70/93 0 0 0 10 10 30
BPT 71/96 70/95 73/94 0 0 0 10 10 30
AEX 66/94 63/94 66/93 0 0 0 10 10 20
POE 66/94 63/94 67/93 0 0 0 10 10 20
ARA 72/95 70/95 73/91 0 0 0 10 10 40
Tonight...Mostly Clear and Refreshing for late August. Low 70. Calm wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 95. NE wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear with Another Pleasant Night. Low 68. Light NE wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 94. East wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 71. Light SE wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 8/26/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Refreshing.
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
H.I.: 91
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 96
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
H.I.: 92
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
8-26-10
18 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Low: 70
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 68
High: 94
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 10
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 71
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- Very High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Low: 75
High: 89
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-1-10
2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav
Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropics...
The tropics are quickly heating up. A week ago, you remember, I said it was eerily deceptive. We are certainly working our way through prime time hurricane season now right on schedule. We now have two named systems. Let's start with Danielle first.
Hurricane Danielle continues to churn and strengthen in the open waters of the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands. It has strengthened fairly quickly this evening considering the environment isn't a completely favorable one. There is still some shear in the general vicinity, but Danielle has been able to strengthen regardless as the shear begins to relax. Danielle looks a classic maturing hurricane on the satellite imagery tonight with a very symmetrical signature, and the first signs of a visible eye. Not only is Danielle's strength increase, it is also increasing in size. Danielle seems poised to become the season's first major hurricane by Friday. The official forecast reflects a continued strengthening from the current 100 mph winds, and Danielle is currently expected to be approaching major hurricane status sometime Friday or Friday night. The official forecast intensity of 110 mph may be a bit conservative considering the largely favorable environment in which Danielle will be moving over in the coming days. What little bit of shear that currently exists will cease within 24 hours.
Danielle continues to be steered around the periphery of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Africa high, and this anti-cyclone will continue to control the behavior of this tropical entity through Friday. A NW turn occurred on Wednesday, and Danielle will continue to gain latitude through the forecast period as it rounds the edge of the ridge. The storm is coming around the edge of the weakening ridge, and by the weekend as it makes its closest approach to Bermuda it should begin to feel the influence of an approaching Eastern U.S. trough. This will likely create a N to NE motion sometime near the end of 4-5 day period. Danielle will gradually turn from its current NW motion to Northward over the next couple of days. It will bring some squally weather and higher winds and seas to Bermuda over the weekend, but given the current official track as per the NHC and nearly all forecast models, the most adverse effects of what could be a very powerful hurricane at that time should bypass Bermuda to the East. Near the end of the forecast period as Danielle begins to feel a tug from the advancing trough, it will also begin to be influenced by colder shelf waters over the North Central Atlantic. This will more than likely begin the demise of Danielle. This may be aided by some SW shear in response to the advancing trough. Danielle should safely turn out to sea effecting no more than shipping interests. There is still a remote chance of an East Coast threat late next week, but this seems unlikely given the synoptic scale features that are on the board. Here are the specifics on Danielle if you are plotting at home.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Wednesday, August 25, 2010
...Danielle Continues to Strengthen...Could Become Season's First Major Hurricane By Friday...
Latitude: 22.4 N
Longitude: 54.1 W
This places the eye of Hurricane Danielle about 650 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands, and about 945 miles SE of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph w/ higher gusts- Category 2. Further strengthening is expected through Friday, and Danielle could be approaching major category 3 hurricane status by Friday. Hurricane force winds currently extend out 40 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend out to 175 miles from the eye.
Movement: NW or 320 degrees @ 17 mph. This general direction of motion is expected through Friday, while a reduction in forward speed is likely to occur.
Pressure: 28.79" or 975 mb.
Now onto the newly formed, Earl...The former Invest 96L that has been mentioned in preceding days has become better organized today, and been was officially classified as Tropical Depression 7 Wednesday morning. It continued to get better organized through the day, and has officially become the season's 5th named storm, Tropical Storm Earl. Earl has maintained itself tonight, and it hasn't changed all that much in appearance since its inception this afternoon. Earl is still most certainly a maturing storm, and has a very small structure at this time when compared to the larger Danielle. The atmospheric conditions ahead of Earl are conducive for development even though it is following closely on the heels of Danielle. The current forecast shows the anticipated further strengthening trend, however, it is possible that Earl may have a hard time getting his act together until Danielle moves further away. This is due to the environment left behind by Danielle, and the effects of possible lingering shear Danielle left behind. However, given the fact that Earl emerged a bit further South than Danielle, it could negate any shear and have no trouble in its maturation process.
All models indicate that Earl will become a hurricane by this weekend, and the current forecast laid out by the National Hurricane Center reflects this idea as well. Earl is being steered by the same subtropical ridge that has been controlling Danielle. The current nearly due Westward motion should continue for the next couple of days, before Earl veers to the WNW around the edge of the Subtropical Western Africa/Eastern Atlantic anti-cyclone. All of the models initialize this solution very well, and I see no reason to deviate from this philosophy. The future track of Earl beyond this period is a bit more cloudy. The most likely scenario that I see based on data that I have looked at suggests that Earl will become a fish storm as well, following very closely in Danielle's footsteps. Some models suggests that a ridge will build in to the North of Earl replacing the trough that will ultimately steer Danielle to the North. If this happens then the threat to the United States will be increased sometime around Labor Day. In the coming days, Earl could also pose a threat to some of the Lesser Antilles since it formed at a point further South than its predecessor. There is still a lot of time to watch Earl, and since it's in the formative stages often times models still have difficulty getting a good read on a particular system. Certainly though, Earl is poised to become the 3rd hurricane of 2010, and will likely grow in size as well. Here is the latest advisory on Earl so you can keep track at home, although you won't be able to plot him just yet on most hurricane tracking charts as he's way out there.
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory
10p.m. Wednesday, August 25, 2010
...Tropical Storm Earl forms & becomes the season's 5th named storm...Strengthening to a Hurricane by This Weekend is Expected...
Latitude: 14.7 N
Longitude: 33.6 W
This places the center of Tropical Storm Earl about 615 miles W of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Friday, and Earl could approach hurricane status by the weekend. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward to 60 miles from the center.
Movement: W or 275 degrees @ 16 mph. This motion is expected to continue through Friday, and Earl will remain over the open waters of the Eastern Atlantic through the period.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.71" or 1006 mb.
Elsewhere, in the tropics...A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms along an old frontal boundary in continues to persist in the Central Gulf of Mexico. If any tropical development were to occur it would be a slow process. This weak area of disturbed weather will move slowly Westward over the next couple of days, and help to increase rain chances across the Northern Gulf coast this weekend. No additional tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:38a.m. 10:39p.m.
High: 4:35a.m. 4:22p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.58'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Low: 74
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 59-1917
High: 94
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1924
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.78"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 37.02"
Record: 1.40"- 1974
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 71
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 95
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 96
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:42p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Full Moon- Thursday September 23
Have a Great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The drier air has taken over, and now encompasses the entire forecast area. It will be nice to have a reprieve from the excessively hot and humid weather that has dominated the forecast all summer for a couple days. The temperatures being experienced during this breath of fresh air are certainly not earth-shattering by any means. In actuality, this weak cool front has only set us back to normal for late August. In this awful summer of 2010, normal is a good thing. The downside is that there is virtually no chance of any much needed rainfall from the typical daily dose of showers and thunderstorms we depend on this time of year. The high pressure in the wake of the feeble frontal zone has suppressed any vertical growth from any cumulus clouds that form during the heat of the day. Clouds were even a rare item on Wednesday with the drier air in place. Afternoon highs reached the low to mid 90s for most locations, but again this is normal in late August. The drier and somewhat cooler air will be more noticeable overnight and through sunrise Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool off at a faster than usual clip thanks to the lower dew points as initiated by the offshore flow. Many locations will dip below the 70 degree mark for the first time since May. While it's not much, it's a step in the right direction as we head towards September. The rest of us will easily see lower 70s with clear skies and nearly calm winds in place.
A similar weather regime is slated for Thursday with the dry, subsident flow in place. The early morning upper 60s and lower 70s will warm into the low to mid 90s by the afternoon hours, but the heat index will literally be non-existent thanks to the lower humidity. Cloud cover will be at a minimum, and there will be no chance of any rainfall yet again. While it will be nice by late August standards over land areas, there will be some action ongoing in the Gulf waters. The old frontal boundary remains nearly stationary over that area, and there is a persistent area of showers and storms as well. There are still some signs of weak cyclogenesis occurring within the next 24-48 hours as the frontal zone meanders about. An elongated trough will co-exist with the quasi-stationary boundary, and this will ultimately essentially cause the front to turn into a warm front. This transition will begin on Thursday, having virtually no effect on our weather in the short-term. An offshore flow will continue through Thursday night and into Friday morning, thus the pleasant late August weather will continue for a short while longer with upper 60s to around 70 for minimums under clear skies once again. Don't get used to the comfort!
The moisture will continue to pool in the offshore waters on Friday, but land areas will continue to remain dry. Initially, a subtle increase in low-level moisture will occur as the transitioning boundary lifts slowly Northward, and the weak surface low drifts Westward. This will keep all shower and thunderstorm activity confined to the coastal waters mainly to the South and East of the aforementioned synoptic scale features. Another pleasantly hot (if there is such a thing) afternoon is on tap for Friday with highs in the lower to middle 90s easily amassed. I suppose an isolated shower or storm or two could occur during the peak heating hours especially nearest the coast where the deeper moisture will be in closer proximity with the boundary lifting Northward, but this is a minuscule proposition, and is not worth noting in the official forecast at this time. The weather looks good for all the High School Football Jamborees across the area. It will be warm, but no threat of rain exists. Expect temperatures during this time frame to be in the 80s during the evening hours, before falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the scope of the forecast area heading into the final Saturday of August. This will be the last of the late August pleasantry.
The complex portion of the forecast lies within the weekend. The complexities come from the developments in the Gulf. The warm front like feature will continue lifting Northward through Saturday ushering in a return of the deep tropical air. This will bring back rain chances to the forecast across the area, with the best chances initially along and South of the I-10 corridor. It appears now that most of the widespread and heavier activity will remain suppressed over the coastal waters for one more day on Saturday as the weak surface low traverses the warm Gulf waters from East to West. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that this aforementioned low could garner some tropical characteristics, and try to develop further. Though, it seems unlikely to happen at this point, it is something we must watch closely for. This time of year it is always possible that a tropical system can form from an old frontal boundary if it sags into the Gulf waters, so this idea can't be ignored. Nevertheless, the weak surface reflection should evolve, and move slowly W or WSW towards SE Texas through Sunday. This will aid in moisture increase across the area, thus another reason to validate the return of rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms on Saturday will mostly be scattered in nature, and will be thermally induced for the most part. It should essentially be a normal late August day. The pleasant air of the early morning hours will quickly go by the wayside, and the humidity returns in earnest during the afternoon as maximums reach the lower 90s. Heat indices will be around 100, so it'll be back to feeling all nasty and junk. Rain chances increase further for Sunday, and this seems like the most likely day to receive rain over the course of this forecast period. The moist axis will be well established by this time with the weak surface low situated to the West of the area. This will keep a deep, moist, tropical air mass in place across the area, and the end result will be off and on rain and storms on Sunday. Rain chances will be in the likely category, and the area could stand to see 1-2" of rain at this time, but given the ongoing drought conditions in place a flooding problem is not expected. Further fine tuning is expected as we head into the weekend. The morning lows will be in the mid 70s, while afternoon highs remain just shy of the 90 degree mark. A stiff onshore flow is expected as well given the associated pressure differences associated with the Gulf low and re-building high pressure to our North.
The end of the forecast period Monday-Wednesday is more straightforward. Monday will still offer up a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture influx hangs around for another day. The actual surface reflection should be over Central Texas. This will keep the Gulf wide open to send more rich tropical air in the lower levels over the area. The effects of daytime heating will also help conjure up an above normal crop of mainly afternoon showers and storms. The rainfall should not be as widespread or as heavy Monday due to the fact that a re-building ridge will be in transit over the area. This will begin to dry out the atmosphere in the mid and upper levels initially. More sunshine is on tap for Monday, and temperatures should respond accordingly. After highs at or just below the 90 degree mark on Sunday, temperatures will creep back into the lower to middle 90s by Monday. This will come after morning lows in the usual mid to upper 70s. All in all, it should be a fairly typical late August day. August comes to an end on Tuesday, and it will likely end on a dry and hotter than normal note. High pressure will build in at the surface as well by this time, and this will essentially shut off any chance of any natural air conditioning. An isolated storm or two is possible Tuesday, but if you get rain consider yourself mighty lucky. The chances of rain for Tuesday are too negligible to mention at this time. Expect lows in the mid 70s, and highs in the mid 90s with heat indices exceeding the 100 degree mark and likely at least approaching the danger category during peak heating hours. Wednesday is the start of September, if you can believe that! September should start with high pressure in control, with virtually no chance for showers and storms and above normal temperatures. It will be very resemblent of the summer of 2010 with lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs in the mid to upper 90s, and heat indices at or exceeding the 105 degree danger threshold. In the extended, dry and hotter than usual weather should prevail as we head into the all important Labor Day weekend.
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 70/95 68/94 71/92 0 0 0 10 10 30
LFT 70/95 69/95 70/93 0 0 0 10 10 30
BPT 71/96 70/95 73/94 0 0 0 10 10 30
AEX 66/94 63/94 66/93 0 0 0 10 10 20
POE 66/94 63/94 67/93 0 0 0 10 10 20
ARA 72/95 70/95 73/91 0 0 0 10 10 40
Tonight...Mostly Clear and Refreshing for late August. Low 70. Calm wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 95. NE wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear with Another Pleasant Night. Low 68. Light NE wind.
Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 94. East wind 10 mph.
Friday Night...Clear. Low 71. Light SE wind.
Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Thursday 8/26/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear, Refreshing.
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: Calm
9a.m.
Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
H.I.: 91
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 96
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5
H.I.: 92
9p.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Thursday
8-26-10
18 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 68
High: 94
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 10
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 71
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- Very High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Low: 75
High: 89
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 91
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
Wednesday
9-1-10
2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav
Low: 75
High: 96
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropics...
The tropics are quickly heating up. A week ago, you remember, I said it was eerily deceptive. We are certainly working our way through prime time hurricane season now right on schedule. We now have two named systems. Let's start with Danielle first.
Hurricane Danielle continues to churn and strengthen in the open waters of the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde Islands. It has strengthened fairly quickly this evening considering the environment isn't a completely favorable one. There is still some shear in the general vicinity, but Danielle has been able to strengthen regardless as the shear begins to relax. Danielle looks a classic maturing hurricane on the satellite imagery tonight with a very symmetrical signature, and the first signs of a visible eye. Not only is Danielle's strength increase, it is also increasing in size. Danielle seems poised to become the season's first major hurricane by Friday. The official forecast reflects a continued strengthening from the current 100 mph winds, and Danielle is currently expected to be approaching major hurricane status sometime Friday or Friday night. The official forecast intensity of 110 mph may be a bit conservative considering the largely favorable environment in which Danielle will be moving over in the coming days. What little bit of shear that currently exists will cease within 24 hours.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Wednesday, August 25, 2010
...Danielle Continues to Strengthen...Could Become Season's First Major Hurricane By Friday...
Latitude: 22.4 N
Longitude: 54.1 W
This places the eye of Hurricane Danielle about 650 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands, and about 945 miles SE of Bermuda.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph w/ higher gusts- Category 2. Further strengthening is expected through Friday, and Danielle could be approaching major category 3 hurricane status by Friday. Hurricane force winds currently extend out 40 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend out to 175 miles from the eye.
Movement: NW or 320 degrees @ 17 mph. This general direction of motion is expected through Friday, while a reduction in forward speed is likely to occur.
Pressure: 28.79" or 975 mb.
Now onto the newly formed, Earl...The former Invest 96L that has been mentioned in preceding days has become better organized today, and been was officially classified as Tropical Depression 7 Wednesday morning. It continued to get better organized through the day, and has officially become the season's 5th named storm, Tropical Storm Earl. Earl has maintained itself tonight, and it hasn't changed all that much in appearance since its inception this afternoon. Earl is still most certainly a maturing storm, and has a very small structure at this time when compared to the larger Danielle. The atmospheric conditions ahead of Earl are conducive for development even though it is following closely on the heels of Danielle. The current forecast shows the anticipated further strengthening trend, however, it is possible that Earl may have a hard time getting his act together until Danielle moves further away. This is due to the environment left behind by Danielle, and the effects of possible lingering shear Danielle left behind. However, given the fact that Earl emerged a bit further South than Danielle, it could negate any shear and have no trouble in its maturation process.
All models indicate that Earl will become a hurricane by this weekend, and the current forecast laid out by the National Hurricane Center reflects this idea as well. Earl is being steered by the same subtropical ridge that has been controlling Danielle. The current nearly due Westward motion should continue for the next couple of days, before Earl veers to the WNW around the edge of the Subtropical Western Africa/Eastern Atlantic anti-cyclone. All of the models initialize this solution very well, and I see no reason to deviate from this philosophy. The future track of Earl beyond this period is a bit more cloudy. The most likely scenario that I see based on data that I have looked at suggests that Earl will become a fish storm as well, following very closely in Danielle's footsteps. Some models suggests that a ridge will build in to the North of Earl replacing the trough that will ultimately steer Danielle to the North. If this happens then the threat to the United States will be increased sometime around Labor Day. In the coming days, Earl could also pose a threat to some of the Lesser Antilles since it formed at a point further South than its predecessor. There is still a lot of time to watch Earl, and since it's in the formative stages often times models still have difficulty getting a good read on a particular system. Certainly though, Earl is poised to become the 3rd hurricane of 2010, and will likely grow in size as well. Here is the latest advisory on Earl so you can keep track at home, although you won't be able to plot him just yet on most hurricane tracking charts as he's way out there.
Tropical Storm Earl Advisory
10p.m. Wednesday, August 25, 2010
...Tropical Storm Earl forms & becomes the season's 5th named storm...Strengthening to a Hurricane by This Weekend is Expected...
Latitude: 14.7 N
Longitude: 33.6 W
This places the center of Tropical Storm Earl about 615 miles W of the Southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Friday, and Earl could approach hurricane status by the weekend. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward to 60 miles from the center.
Movement: W or 275 degrees @ 16 mph. This motion is expected to continue through Friday, and Earl will remain over the open waters of the Eastern Atlantic through the period.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.71" or 1006 mb.
Elsewhere, in the tropics...A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms along an old frontal boundary in continues to persist in the Central Gulf of Mexico. If any tropical development were to occur it would be a slow process. This weak area of disturbed weather will move slowly Westward over the next couple of days, and help to increase rain chances across the Northern Gulf coast this weekend. No additional tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Saturday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
...Tide Data...
Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:38a.m. 10:39p.m.
High: 4:35a.m. 4:22p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.58'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Low: 74
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 59-1917
High: 94
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1924
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.78"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 37.02"
Record: 1.40"- 1974
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 71
High: 91
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 95
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 72
High: 96
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Thursday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:42p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Full Moon- Thursday September 23
Have a Great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Drier AIr For the Next Couple of Days...Wet Weather for the Weekend?
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
The forecast is coming up momentarily. I just wanted to take a moment to tell you about some upcoming features to the blog. As I mentioned last week, the return of audio blogs is coming soon. This should occur beginning around September 1. I figure that would be a good time to start that up again with the peak of hurricane season drawing near as well as the beginning of football season, and the end of summer.
Also, the anniversary of many hurricanes are approaching. August 26 is the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Sunday, August 29, is the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Wednesday, September 1, is the 2 year anniversary of Hurricane Gustav, while September 13 marks the 2 year anniversary of Hurricane Ike and the 3 year anniversary of Hurricane Humberto. Last, but not least around these parts, is the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Rita, that occurs on Friday, September 24.
I will take a look back at each one of these storms and look at its impact on Louisiana. Much of the focus will be on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, since they are by far the worst storms ever to strike Louisiana. Of course, Katrina will garner so much national attention in the coming days. I will post a lot of information on Katrina, but since our area was more severely impacted by Rita, a storm forgotten by the national media, the blog will focus a great deal on Rita. I certainly don't want to minimize the destruction or the impact of its predecessors, but since Rita was truly our storm it will get most of the attention here. Look for the look back of Hurricane Andrew coming up on Thursday, and posts specifically about Hurricane Katrina this weekend through Monday of next week. I will have more information about these storms in the coming days and remind you again as each anniversary approaches. Now onto the forecast...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weak, rare August cool front has slipped through the landscape of SW Louisiana, and is traversing SE Texas at present. It was another very hot day across the forecast area, however, it was a bit more bearable than we would normally expect for late August around these parts. Max temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s across the area, but heat indices were just above 100 with the lower dew points. This resulted in lower humidity values in the 30-40% range. That's more reminiscent of October around here. The weak cool front remains in the vicinity, and a few very isolated showers have developed at random across the area as the front helps to scour out the remaining deep moisture in the boundary layer. Most everyone was dry today, and will remain dry for the next few days. The atmosphere will continue to dry out tonight with the drier air even filtering down to the coast by morning. SE Texas will get into the dry air as well, though the process may take a bit longer there due to the orientation of the weakening cool front. The temperatures overnight will be below the benchmark for late August, and while the temperatures won't feel like October, I suppose beggars can't be choosers, so we'll settle for lower 70s for most. The Northernmost portions of the forecast area will likely see some mid to upper 60s, so that will certainly be a breath of fresh air first thing in the morning.
The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday is a simple one. Drier air will be in place in the wake of the decaying frontal boundary in the nearshore waters. The drier air in place will actually help the atmosphere heat up even faster than usual with the full effect of hot late August sun. Therefore, high temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be above the normal levels for late August. Expect mid 90s on average with a few upper 90s in the warmer locations across the forecast area. Mostly Sunny skies should prevail in response to the lower moisture levels. The atmosphere will remain largely capped with high pressure in place, and no convection is expected through Thursday. The drier air will do wonders for the apparent temperature (heat index) as well. Heat index values will be much closer to the actual temperature than they normally would be on a typical late August afternoon. They should remain below the danger zone of 105, so that is certainly a welcome change in what has been an incredibly hot summer. A light offshore flow will prevail. The overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday will feel refreshing to some once again with minimums right around the 70 degree threshold again.
The dry air may persist into a portion of Friday before noticeable changes occur. The breath of fresh air may greet us again Friday morning with minimums around 70, but this brief reprieve from the ridiculously humid air will be coming to an end in a hurry at week's end. The weak frontal boundary will meander in the Gulf waters. It will begin to retreat Northward towards week's end, and this will bring back the deep tropical air, and moisten up the boundary layer. At the same time, models still depict some sort of surface reflection developing along the old frontal boundary in the Gulf. The idea of cyclogenesis is feasible considering the time of year. Any cold front that happens to make it into the Gulf waters this time of year, has the potential to spin up a surface low. It is still too early to say for sure if this is going to happen, but with convection already present over the middle of the Gulf the idea is on the table. Regardless of any surface low development, moisture increase is inevitable. The moisture influx will begin on Friday, and rain chances will be re-introduced to the forecast at this time. Friday will essentially be a typical late summer day with afternoon convection the primary source for the aforementioned rain chances. Cloud cover will increase in earnest by Friday afternoon, and the brief reprieve will become a quickly eroding memory. About an average for late August chance of afternoon showers and storms is expected on Friday as the deeper moisture returns. High temperatures will be impacted by the increased moisture as well. Instead of the seemingly endless mid to upper 90s that we've experienced this summer, highs will fall off to the lower 90s. This is essentially normal for late August, however, just because the highs decrease doesn't mean it will feel any cooler. The increase in low-level moisture will also increase the heat index (the reverse effect of the preceding days). So, heat index values will be over 100 once again, and it feel all nasty and junk yet again. This portion of the forecast is subject to drastic changes depending on what transpires in the Gulf. Convection will drop off on Friday night, but given the developing pattern some nocturnal shower and/or thunderstorm activity can't be ruled out. Low temperatures will be back into the mid 70s range. That's more like what we've seen most of the summer. I believe most of the High School Football Jamborees will be dry, however.
There is the potential for a rain event this weekend. Details still sketchy at this point, but it all hinges on the developments in the Gulf. Any low that forms will likely drift W or WNW towards the coasts of SE Texas and SW Louisiana over the weekend. This will certainly keep us in the moist axis, therefore, I am raising rain chances into the likely category for both Saturday and Sunday. Further revisions to the weekend forecast are expected. I wouldn't go and cancel any of your weekend plans just yet. It won't be all day rain event unless this becomes something tropical, but rain is a good bet off and on both Saturday and Sunday with all the moisture pooling over the area. Several inches of rain will be possible, and rain will be heavy at times. It is very dry across the area, and rain will be very welcome around here. This will be the type situation that could create some localized urban and small stream flooding in areas that receive heavier rainfall. A further refinement of rainfall projections will be forthcoming in future forecasts. I will broadbrush things for now, as I don't want to hype up some potential tropical development. The developing pressure gradient between the re-building high to our NE and the potential Gulf low will lead to some gusty winds across the area, and especially over the coastal waters. Winds should be offshore initially depending on the exact location where cyclogenesis may occur, then as the low drifts Westward towards our area winds will shift to an onshore component. Winds in the 20-30 mph range are possible with higher gusts in the stronger storms. The best chances for convection as per usual will be during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating, but they certainly not be limited to those hours in this situation. Morning and nocturnal convection will be possible both Saturday and Sunday with the plume of moisture infiltrating the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be affected by the enhanced rain chances. Highs may not crack the 90 degree mark, and morning lows will struggle to make it below 75 at all.
The end of the forecast period will offer a transition back to a standard summer regime next week. Rain chances may remain above normal for one more day on Monday as the deep moisture plume will only slowly be displaced. High pressure off to our NE will be re-building over the area at this time, and this will take more of an effect on our weather by Tuesday as we close out August. The atmosphere will dry out in earnest from Monday into Tuesday such that rain chances drop off dramatically from Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures in the 90s will return to the forecast, and mid 90s seem plausible by Tuesday once again. Dry air in the mid and upper levels will suppress shower and thunderstorm activity by the end of the forecast period. The presence of low-level moisture will put us back in the persistent pattern we've dealt with most of the summer, therefore, heat indices will thread the needle with respect to the danger category of 105 once again. An isolated storm or two is possible on Tuesday, but after Monday rainfall may be hard to come by once again as we head into September. A brief gander into the extended, shows the drier pattern existing for the first few days of September. This should take us into Labor Day weekend. Dry and hot weather is suggested by the long range models for Labor Day weekend, barring any tropical systems. This will be good news for the first full weekend of football, and of course, for any holiday plans you may have. More on that in the coming days. The good news is that we're on the downward spiral of our long, seemingly endless summer pattern as September nears. The bad news is there is no real sign of a true cold front yet. The first real cold front can't be too far away once we get into September right? The average first true cold front occurs around September 20 across SW Louisiana. So, hopefully it is just a few weeks away now! If you're like me then it can't cool off fast enough!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 71/97 70/95 71/92 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 70/97 70/96 71/92 0 0 0 0 0 30
BPT 72/97 71/96 71/94 0 0 0 0 0 30
AEX 68/98 66/96 69/95 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 68/98 67/96 69/95 0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA 73/95 71/95 72/91 0 0 0 0 0 30
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny. High 97. NE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 70. Calm wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 95. East wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 71. Light East wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 8/25/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 4
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
H.I.: 91
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 98
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 95
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
8-25-10
Low: 71
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
8-26-10
18 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Low: 70
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 10
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 71
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V: 10- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 74
High: 89
Rain: 60%
Wind: ENE 10-20
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Low: 76
High: 87
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-25
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 8- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropics...
Hurricane Danielle continues to churn in the Far Eastern Atlantic. Danielle weakened for awhile on Tuesday due to some shear that was in place over the top of the storm, however, this weakening trend was just temporary. Danielle actually weakened back to a Tropical Storm, but has re-gained hurricane status tonight. The environment favors strengthening for the rest of the work week. Danielle will still likely become the season's first major hurricane in the near future given the favorable environs out ahead of her. Danielle is being steered around the periphery of a Far Eastern Atlantic/Sahara Desert High pressure system. A weakness over the Central Atlantic is forecast to develop in a day or two, and this will in turn cause Danielle to take a Northward jaunt.
Danielle is moving WNW at a fast pace tonight, and a quick motion should continue. Expect Danielle to begin to gain latitude Wednesday with a more NW turn, and the gradual Northward trend will continue from there. The official forecast right now brings the cyclone to the East of Bermuda by Sunday night as a hurricane. This storm will likely create some gusty winds, high seas, and occasional squalls over Bermuda this weekend with the direct impacts bypassing the island to the East. The cyclone may slow down over the weekend, as it briefly gets trapped between synoptic scale features. There will be an advancing trough over the Eastern U.S. that will be moving into the Atlantic this weekend, and the ridge to the East of the storm will begin to strengthen further. This creates some uncertainties with the future track beyond this point. Some forecast models suggest a threat to the East Coast or New England states late next week. The forecast track discrepancies beyond 5 days are larger than usual given the uncertainty of the synoptic scale features.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Tuesday, August 24, 2010
...Danielle's Temporary Weakening Trend Ceases...Once Again a Hurricane...No Imminent Threat to Land...
Latitude: 18.2 N
Longitude: 49.8 W
This position is about 795 miles E of the Leeward Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph w/ higher gusts. This makes Danielle a Category 1 hurricane. Little change in strength is expected on Wednesday, however, conditions are expected to become more conducive for further strengthening on Thursday. Danielle will have the potential to become a major hurricane later this week as it moves into the Central Atlantic. Hurricane force winds extend out to 30 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend out to 140 miles from the center.
Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 18 mph. Danielle is expected to undergo a decrease in forward speed, and make a gradual turn to the NW over the next couple of days.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.23" or 990 mb.
Also, Invest 96L continues to be monitored for development. This system emerged off the West coast of Africa a couple of days ago, and has been rather well organized. The organization changed little over the last 24 hours, but it remains fairly organized. 96L is moving over a continually favorable environment, and it won't take much strengthening at this point for this to become our next classified tropical cyclone. There is a high likelihood (90%) that this will occur within the next day or two. It is likely to become Tropical Depression 7, and eventually Tropical Storm Earl within the next couple of days. It continues to move off to the WNW around 15 mph. Since it is not yet a classified system, it is not prudent to wax eloquent on the future track of this system at this point. The early speculation is that it will follow closely in Danielle's footsteps, and remain over the open waters of the Atlantic. It is possible that while the environment near the Cape Verde Islands is favorable for development, that Invest 96L will have a hard time maintaining itself down the road as it runs into some shear left behind by Danielle. Often times, the larger storms create an environment that persist for a while in its wake.
Next, an area of showers and thunderstorms persists across the Central Gulf of Mexico along a weak, rare late summer frontal boundary. This area of convection currently remains disorganized, and there is only a minimal chance of any tropical development over the next couple of days. A surface low may form in a day or two, and this would increase the prospects of tropical development in this region. A slow West or SW drift is expected over the next couple of days, and any development of this system will be very slow.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Thursday.
This date in History...August 24, 2005...Tropical Storm Katrina forms in the Bahamas. Katrina strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane before crossing South Florida on August 25. Of course, we all know what Katrina went on to become in the days ahead..a very powerful, dangerous, and deadly category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I will have more on that in the days ahead.
...Marine Forecast...
Wednesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:15a.m. 10:11p.m.
High: 4:40a.m. 3:32a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.58'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Low: 76
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 62-1930
High: 98
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1924
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.61"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 36.85"
Record: 2.85"- 1985
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tonight August 24
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
The forecast is coming up momentarily. I just wanted to take a moment to tell you about some upcoming features to the blog. As I mentioned last week, the return of audio blogs is coming soon. This should occur beginning around September 1. I figure that would be a good time to start that up again with the peak of hurricane season drawing near as well as the beginning of football season, and the end of summer.
Also, the anniversary of many hurricanes are approaching. August 26 is the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Sunday, August 29, is the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Wednesday, September 1, is the 2 year anniversary of Hurricane Gustav, while September 13 marks the 2 year anniversary of Hurricane Ike and the 3 year anniversary of Hurricane Humberto. Last, but not least around these parts, is the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Rita, that occurs on Friday, September 24.
I will take a look back at each one of these storms and look at its impact on Louisiana. Much of the focus will be on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, since they are by far the worst storms ever to strike Louisiana. Of course, Katrina will garner so much national attention in the coming days. I will post a lot of information on Katrina, but since our area was more severely impacted by Rita, a storm forgotten by the national media, the blog will focus a great deal on Rita. I certainly don't want to minimize the destruction or the impact of its predecessors, but since Rita was truly our storm it will get most of the attention here. Look for the look back of Hurricane Andrew coming up on Thursday, and posts specifically about Hurricane Katrina this weekend through Monday of next week. I will have more information about these storms in the coming days and remind you again as each anniversary approaches. Now onto the forecast...
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weak, rare August cool front has slipped through the landscape of SW Louisiana, and is traversing SE Texas at present. It was another very hot day across the forecast area, however, it was a bit more bearable than we would normally expect for late August around these parts. Max temperatures reached the mid to upper 90s across the area, but heat indices were just above 100 with the lower dew points. This resulted in lower humidity values in the 30-40% range. That's more reminiscent of October around here. The weak cool front remains in the vicinity, and a few very isolated showers have developed at random across the area as the front helps to scour out the remaining deep moisture in the boundary layer. Most everyone was dry today, and will remain dry for the next few days. The atmosphere will continue to dry out tonight with the drier air even filtering down to the coast by morning. SE Texas will get into the dry air as well, though the process may take a bit longer there due to the orientation of the weakening cool front. The temperatures overnight will be below the benchmark for late August, and while the temperatures won't feel like October, I suppose beggars can't be choosers, so we'll settle for lower 70s for most. The Northernmost portions of the forecast area will likely see some mid to upper 60s, so that will certainly be a breath of fresh air first thing in the morning.
The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday is a simple one. Drier air will be in place in the wake of the decaying frontal boundary in the nearshore waters. The drier air in place will actually help the atmosphere heat up even faster than usual with the full effect of hot late August sun. Therefore, high temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be above the normal levels for late August. Expect mid 90s on average with a few upper 90s in the warmer locations across the forecast area. Mostly Sunny skies should prevail in response to the lower moisture levels. The atmosphere will remain largely capped with high pressure in place, and no convection is expected through Thursday. The drier air will do wonders for the apparent temperature (heat index) as well. Heat index values will be much closer to the actual temperature than they normally would be on a typical late August afternoon. They should remain below the danger zone of 105, so that is certainly a welcome change in what has been an incredibly hot summer. A light offshore flow will prevail. The overnight hours of Wednesday into Thursday will feel refreshing to some once again with minimums right around the 70 degree threshold again.
The dry air may persist into a portion of Friday before noticeable changes occur. The breath of fresh air may greet us again Friday morning with minimums around 70, but this brief reprieve from the ridiculously humid air will be coming to an end in a hurry at week's end. The weak frontal boundary will meander in the Gulf waters. It will begin to retreat Northward towards week's end, and this will bring back the deep tropical air, and moisten up the boundary layer. At the same time, models still depict some sort of surface reflection developing along the old frontal boundary in the Gulf. The idea of cyclogenesis is feasible considering the time of year. Any cold front that happens to make it into the Gulf waters this time of year, has the potential to spin up a surface low. It is still too early to say for sure if this is going to happen, but with convection already present over the middle of the Gulf the idea is on the table. Regardless of any surface low development, moisture increase is inevitable. The moisture influx will begin on Friday, and rain chances will be re-introduced to the forecast at this time. Friday will essentially be a typical late summer day with afternoon convection the primary source for the aforementioned rain chances. Cloud cover will increase in earnest by Friday afternoon, and the brief reprieve will become a quickly eroding memory. About an average for late August chance of afternoon showers and storms is expected on Friday as the deeper moisture returns. High temperatures will be impacted by the increased moisture as well. Instead of the seemingly endless mid to upper 90s that we've experienced this summer, highs will fall off to the lower 90s. This is essentially normal for late August, however, just because the highs decrease doesn't mean it will feel any cooler. The increase in low-level moisture will also increase the heat index (the reverse effect of the preceding days). So, heat index values will be over 100 once again, and it feel all nasty and junk yet again. This portion of the forecast is subject to drastic changes depending on what transpires in the Gulf. Convection will drop off on Friday night, but given the developing pattern some nocturnal shower and/or thunderstorm activity can't be ruled out. Low temperatures will be back into the mid 70s range. That's more like what we've seen most of the summer. I believe most of the High School Football Jamborees will be dry, however.
There is the potential for a rain event this weekend. Details still sketchy at this point, but it all hinges on the developments in the Gulf. Any low that forms will likely drift W or WNW towards the coasts of SE Texas and SW Louisiana over the weekend. This will certainly keep us in the moist axis, therefore, I am raising rain chances into the likely category for both Saturday and Sunday. Further revisions to the weekend forecast are expected. I wouldn't go and cancel any of your weekend plans just yet. It won't be all day rain event unless this becomes something tropical, but rain is a good bet off and on both Saturday and Sunday with all the moisture pooling over the area. Several inches of rain will be possible, and rain will be heavy at times. It is very dry across the area, and rain will be very welcome around here. This will be the type situation that could create some localized urban and small stream flooding in areas that receive heavier rainfall. A further refinement of rainfall projections will be forthcoming in future forecasts. I will broadbrush things for now, as I don't want to hype up some potential tropical development. The developing pressure gradient between the re-building high to our NE and the potential Gulf low will lead to some gusty winds across the area, and especially over the coastal waters. Winds should be offshore initially depending on the exact location where cyclogenesis may occur, then as the low drifts Westward towards our area winds will shift to an onshore component. Winds in the 20-30 mph range are possible with higher gusts in the stronger storms. The best chances for convection as per usual will be during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating, but they certainly not be limited to those hours in this situation. Morning and nocturnal convection will be possible both Saturday and Sunday with the plume of moisture infiltrating the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to be affected by the enhanced rain chances. Highs may not crack the 90 degree mark, and morning lows will struggle to make it below 75 at all.
The end of the forecast period will offer a transition back to a standard summer regime next week. Rain chances may remain above normal for one more day on Monday as the deep moisture plume will only slowly be displaced. High pressure off to our NE will be re-building over the area at this time, and this will take more of an effect on our weather by Tuesday as we close out August. The atmosphere will dry out in earnest from Monday into Tuesday such that rain chances drop off dramatically from Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures in the 90s will return to the forecast, and mid 90s seem plausible by Tuesday once again. Dry air in the mid and upper levels will suppress shower and thunderstorm activity by the end of the forecast period. The presence of low-level moisture will put us back in the persistent pattern we've dealt with most of the summer, therefore, heat indices will thread the needle with respect to the danger category of 105 once again. An isolated storm or two is possible on Tuesday, but after Monday rainfall may be hard to come by once again as we head into September. A brief gander into the extended, shows the drier pattern existing for the first few days of September. This should take us into Labor Day weekend. Dry and hot weather is suggested by the long range models for Labor Day weekend, barring any tropical systems. This will be good news for the first full weekend of football, and of course, for any holiday plans you may have. More on that in the coming days. The good news is that we're on the downward spiral of our long, seemingly endless summer pattern as September nears. The bad news is there is no real sign of a true cold front yet. The first real cold front can't be too far away once we get into September right? The average first true cold front occurs around September 20 across SW Louisiana. So, hopefully it is just a few weeks away now! If you're like me then it can't cool off fast enough!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 71/97 70/95 71/92 0 0 0 0 0 30
LFT 70/97 70/96 71/92 0 0 0 0 0 30
BPT 72/97 71/96 71/94 0 0 0 0 0 30
AEX 68/98 66/96 69/95 0 0 0 0 0 20
POE 68/98 67/96 69/95 0 0 0 0 0 20
ARA 73/95 71/95 72/91 0 0 0 0 0 30
Wednesday...Mostly Sunny. High 97. NE wind 10 mph.
Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 70. Calm wind.
Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 95. East wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 71. Light East wind.
Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday 8/25/10 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Clear
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
9a.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 4
Noon
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 8
H.I.: 91
3p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 98
6p.m.
Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6
H.I.: 95
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 2
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
Low: 71
High: 97
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 10
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High
Thursday
8-26-10
18 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew
Low: 70
High: 95
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 10
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High
Friday
8-27-10
Low: 71
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V: 10- Very High
Saturday
8-28-10
Low: 74
High: 89
Rain: 60%
Wind: ENE 10-20
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High
Sunday
8-29-10
5 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
High: 87
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15-25
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 8- High
Monday
8-30-10
Low: 75
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High
Tuesday
8-31-10
Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High
...Tropics...
Danielle is moving WNW at a fast pace tonight, and a quick motion should continue. Expect Danielle to begin to gain latitude Wednesday with a more NW turn, and the gradual Northward trend will continue from there. The official forecast right now brings the cyclone to the East of Bermuda by Sunday night as a hurricane. This storm will likely create some gusty winds, high seas, and occasional squalls over Bermuda this weekend with the direct impacts bypassing the island to the East. The cyclone may slow down over the weekend, as it briefly gets trapped between synoptic scale features. There will be an advancing trough over the Eastern U.S. that will be moving into the Atlantic this weekend, and the ridge to the East of the storm will begin to strengthen further. This creates some uncertainties with the future track beyond this point. Some forecast models suggest a threat to the East Coast or New England states late next week. The forecast track discrepancies beyond 5 days are larger than usual given the uncertainty of the synoptic scale features.
Hurricane Danielle Advisory
10p.m. Tuesday, August 24, 2010
...Danielle's Temporary Weakening Trend Ceases...Once Again a Hurricane...No Imminent Threat to Land...
Latitude: 18.2 N
Longitude: 49.8 W
This position is about 795 miles E of the Leeward Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 mph w/ higher gusts. This makes Danielle a Category 1 hurricane. Little change in strength is expected on Wednesday, however, conditions are expected to become more conducive for further strengthening on Thursday. Danielle will have the potential to become a major hurricane later this week as it moves into the Central Atlantic. Hurricane force winds extend out to 30 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend out to 140 miles from the center.
Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 18 mph. Danielle is expected to undergo a decrease in forward speed, and make a gradual turn to the NW over the next couple of days.
Minimum Central Pressure: 29.23" or 990 mb.
Also, Invest 96L continues to be monitored for development. This system emerged off the West coast of Africa a couple of days ago, and has been rather well organized. The organization changed little over the last 24 hours, but it remains fairly organized. 96L is moving over a continually favorable environment, and it won't take much strengthening at this point for this to become our next classified tropical cyclone. There is a high likelihood (90%) that this will occur within the next day or two. It is likely to become Tropical Depression 7, and eventually Tropical Storm Earl within the next couple of days. It continues to move off to the WNW around 15 mph. Since it is not yet a classified system, it is not prudent to wax eloquent on the future track of this system at this point. The early speculation is that it will follow closely in Danielle's footsteps, and remain over the open waters of the Atlantic. It is possible that while the environment near the Cape Verde Islands is favorable for development, that Invest 96L will have a hard time maintaining itself down the road as it runs into some shear left behind by Danielle. Often times, the larger storms create an environment that persist for a while in its wake.
Next, an area of showers and thunderstorms persists across the Central Gulf of Mexico along a weak, rare late summer frontal boundary. This area of convection currently remains disorganized, and there is only a minimal chance of any tropical development over the next couple of days. A surface low may form in a day or two, and this would increase the prospects of tropical development in this region. A slow West or SW drift is expected over the next couple of days, and any development of this system will be very slow.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Thursday.
This date in History...August 24, 2005...Tropical Storm Katrina forms in the Bahamas. Katrina strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane before crossing South Florida on August 25. Of course, we all know what Katrina went on to become in the days ahead..a very powerful, dangerous, and deadly category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. I will have more on that in the days ahead.
...Marine Forecast...
Wednesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass
Low: 10:15a.m. 10:11p.m.
High: 4:40a.m. 3:32a.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
167.58'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Low: 76
Normal Low: 73
Record Low: 62-1930
High: 98
Normal High: 91
Record High: 102-1924
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 2.52"
Normal Month to Date: 3.61"
Year to Date: 24.90"
Normal Year to Date: 36.85"
Record: 2.85"- 1985
Sensible Weather Observed Today:
None
One Year Ago (2009)
Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2005)
Low: 77
High: 96
Rain: Trace
10 Years Ago (2000)
Low: 73
High: 92
Rain: 0.01"
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:46a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:43p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Full Moon- Tonight August 24
Last Quarter- Wednesday September 1
New Moon- Wednesday September 8
First Quarter- Wednesday September 15
Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-
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