Springlike Weather This Week...Active El Nino Pattern...Severe Storms Possible Wednesday...

Monday, January 18, 2010

***Because of an active weather situation for later this week, the blog is back in severe weather mode.***

Before I get to the forecast discussion, here is a brief aside. The recent cold wave was historical in some aspects. It certainly wasn't anywhere near the all-time coldest temperatures ever experienced in SW Louisiana, but there were a few daily record lows established during that time. However, you can take it deeper than that...it was a prolonged stretch of unseasonably cold weather across the area. Just how cold was it? How does it match up with the all-time records as far as all-time prolonged cold snaps? I inquired about this very subject last week with the National Weather Service, and here is what was found. I specifically asked what was the longest stretch of days in recorded history at Lake Charles where the minimum temperature was 35 or lower. I should note that the normal low for the first half of January is around 40.

*The following data is courtesy of the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles.*

The recent stretch of cold weather, January 2-13 was the longest stretch of daily minimums of 35 degrees or lower in recorded history at Lake Charles. The previous longest stretch was 10 days set in January 8-17, 1982.

Here's a closer look at the low temperature at Lake Charles for each day from January 1-13, 2010.

*This data is the official record for LCH for the specific dates above.

January 1-   36
January 2-   34
January 3-   34
January 4-   30
January 5-   25
January 6-   28
January 7-   30
January 8-   26
January 9-   21
January 10- 20
January 11- 21
January 12- 32
January 13- 30

The average temperature during the first 13 days of January was 28.2. This is 12-14 degrees below normal for early January. Thanks to Donald Jones of the National Weather Service, Lake Charles for supplying this information.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The El Nino storm parade has taken over full throttle once again. The signs of the next storm system are already visible with clouds on the increase after a beautiful MLK Day. Fog was an issue this morning, with some areas experiencing dense fog until about an hour or so after sunrise, but once it burned off it was a pleasant day with sunny skies and temperatures warming well into the 60s after a chilly start in the mid 30s to around 40. This benign weather was in the wake of the big Gulf low that brought us strong winds and rain over the weekend. The Pacific high pressure that has controlled the forecast since Sunday has traveled Eastward this evening, and as a result a return flow of low-level moisture has commenced across the forecast area. This will by far be the deepest return flow we've experienced so far in 2010, and the mild temperatures will only get milder over the next couple of days as the Jet Stream remains far to our North, and the Subtropical Jet Stream is the dominant weather feature around these parts. The next storm system to affect the area is walloping the West Coast tonight with heavy rain and flash flooding. This Southern Stream system is what will be on tap for us Wednesday...more on that in a minute!!!

For tonight, quiet weather is in store as the low-level return flow continues. Deeper Gulf moisture will move inland, and WAA will dominate. The only issue for tonight will once again be fog. However, it may pose more of a problem tonight than it did last night because it will be an advection fog as opposed to a radiation fog. Fog will become widespread across the area after midnight, and it will very dense in some areas, possibly reducing visibilities to near 0 at times towards morning. Overcast conditions will also develop as clouds continue to increase in advance of the Pacific storm. Expect overnight minimums to be above the benchmark for mid January, and about 10 degrees warmer than last night. A dry forecast is maintained for Tuesday, but it will be unseasonably warm and humid. The morning fog will give way to a cloud deck with intervals of sunshine in the afternoon. Warm weather fans will delight as maximums reach near 70 for the first time all year. This is a shade warmer than today when readings topped out at in the mid 60s. Winds will be gusty at times in the afternoon as the strong Pacific storm approaches. The influx of Gulf moisture will continue, and as the deeper moisture approaches the forecast area a few showers will be possible by Tuesday night. Fog shouldn't be as much of an issue Tuesday night due to the winds providing mixing of the atmosphere resulting in conditions that will preclude much fog. The period of above normal temperatures will continue as minimums will be in the low to mid 50s, some 10-15 degrees above the normal.

Wednesday is when the next storm system affects the region. The current cut off low and trailing cold front, embedded in the Southern Stream will race Eastward from the Desert SW tonight, and emerge East of the Rockies Tuesday. By mid-week, shower and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase as the front moves into the region. Surface low formation can't be ruled with a great supply of energy from the STJ, but unlike its predecessors which traveled through the Gulf and kept us in the cool sector, this time we'll be well encompassed by the warm sector. The continuing El Nino pattern will add dynamics to an already potent storm system. The energy enhanced system and the presence of a 100 kt. Jet Stream moving right across the area will produce the potential for some severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The orientation of the Jet Stream will place the forecast area in the LFQ (Left Front Quad) of the Jet Stream, and this is often a favorable position for severe weather. The air mass over the forecast area will be very unstable on Wednesday, and the advancing warm sector and approaching trough should engender shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday morning over Texas. This will slide Eastward during the day, and enter our forecast area Wednesday afternoon. The event is close enough now, that I can begin pinpointing a time line for the worst of the weather to occur. My best guess right now is that the thunderstorms will roll through between 3p.m. and 7p.m. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK currently has the forecast area highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather for the day 3 (Wednesday) period. Some 'streamer" or air mass showers will be possible Wednesday morning. The activity will likely congeal into a squall line as it is transported Eastward by the strong Jet Stream. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and with the strong Jet Stream in place certainly wind shear will be possible. This justifies a tornado threat, but I believe the greatest threat from any severe weather will be damaging winds. The 100 kt. winds associated with the Jet Stream means that there will be very gusty winds present on Wednesday. The 100 kt. winds will translate down to the surface via the thunderstorm downdrafts, however, the 100 kt. winds will not be experienced at the surface. Wind speeds decrease with height, and the closer you get the ground, the lesser the wind. That being said, the wind will decrease only so much exponentially, such that winds over 60 mph will still be possible with the strongest storms. The greatest threat for severe weather should be North of the I-10 corridor, but even the immediate coast isn't totally off the hook from severe weather. Further revisions to this forecast will be made on Tuesday. A quick shot of heavy rain is expected, and rainfall amounts for this event should be between 1-2" right on the heels of what we saw this past weekend. The heavy rain isn't the main issue this go around, it's the impinging sever weather threat. The mild weather continues as you would imagine with a severe weather threat, and you can expect a Wednesday maximum in the lower 70s.

The current zonal flow with the STJ streaming overhead is a fast flow. This is the good news, as the system will keep moving off to our East, and continues will improve quickly overnight Wednesday. However, limited cooling is expected behind the front, but it the air will become noticeably drier in its wake. The flow will remain zonal, therefore all the cold air will remain locked up to our North for the time being. Weak CAA takes over late Wednesday night behind the front, and minimums will remain above normal in the low to mid 50s. Skies will clear as high pressure quickly takes over. This will set the stage for quiet weather for Thursday and Friday. It will continue to be springlike as well with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s for Friday morning. There will be plenty of sunshine these two days, so that will be nice. Changes occur again by late Friday as the Pacific high shifts Eastward, and we wait for the next in the continuing parade of storms. The Gulf re-opens Friday night with a WAA in earnest as the surface high settles over the SE U.S. Rain chances will remain absent from the forecast this period as the presence of a trigger mechanism is absent for this forecast period. Fog could be an issue once again for the Friday night period, but I defer that decision until after we get past the severe weather episode Wednesday. The unseasonable warmth continues Friday night with moderating minimums back into the 50s with the Gulf flow.

Our next Pacific system will also be quite strong, but it is too early to be specific and say if it will parallel the mid-week system, but with the active STJ and other prominent features of an El Nino you have to figure it might be. Clouds will be on the increase in earnest Saturday as the system comes out of the lee of the Rockies. Saturday could start with some sunshine, but it will likely end on a wet note as this latest trough moves across. If the trough is negatively tilted, then there will be another shot at severe weather Saturday night. Again, this is something I will re-evaluate as we get closer to the event. Best guess right now is that the highest chance of shower and thunderstorms with this system will come Saturday night. It should be another quick mover as well. Another quick inch or two of rain is possible. Strong WAA will be in place ahead of the system, and temperatures could possibly exceed 75. The quick flow carries over through the weekend, and should result in a decent Sunday. A few showers could linger early Sunday, but rapid improvement should occur once again as another high pressure builds in. This is good news for anyone who might want to BBQ outside or have a Saints pre-game party Sunday afternoon before the NFC Championship game that evening! Geaux Saints!!! A bit sharper trough this go around, should result in much cooler air behind the front Saturday night. A great deal of sunshine is expected by Sunday afternoon with temperatures much cooler. Sunday minimums will be around 50, still above normal, but afternoon highs should only be in the lower 60s. The deeper trough will bring about a mix of Canadian and Pacific air in the wake of the Saturday night front, and temperatures by Monday morning with high pressure very near the forecast area will be in the cold category in the mid to upper 30s, reminding us that yes it is still winter! The cool high pressure will keep Monday highs below normal as we round out this forecast period. Looking beyond the scope of this 7 day forecast briefly, a pattern shit next week should result in a transition back towards colder than normal for month's end with another bout of Arctic air still possible the first week of February. The colder pattern could result in a drier pattern, like we've had, but there's an equal chance of the Southern Stream remaining active. Who Dat?


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  48/70  55/72  55/68  0 0 30 80 60 0
LFT   46/71  54/71  56/68  0 0 30 70 70 0
BPT   51/73  57/73  54/70  0 0 40 80 50 0
AEX  45/70  54/70  50/66  0 0 30 80 60 0
POE  47/71  54/71  50/67  0 0 30 80 60 0
ARA  46/71  56/71  58/69  0 0 30 70 70 0


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Dense Fog after midnight. Low 48. Light South wind.

Tuesday...Areas of Dense Fog early, otherwise Mostly Cloudy and Windy. Unseasonably Warm. High 71. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Cloudy with a 30% chance of shower and thunderstorms. Windy. Low 55. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Wednesday...Cloudy, Warm, & Windy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some severe weather possible in the afternoon. Locally heavy rain at times. High 72. SSE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening. Some severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible. Rain ending with skies clearing overnight. Low 55. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty in the evening. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Tuesday
1-19-10

Low: 48
High: 70
Precip: 0%...30% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20


Wednesday
1-20-10

Low: 55
High: 72
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE 20-25


Thursday
1-21-10

Low: 55
High: 68
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


Friday
1-22-10

Low: 46
High: 71
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10


Saturday
1-23-10

Low: 51
High: 74
Precip: 30%...60% Night
Wind: SSE 15-20


Sunday
1-24-10

Low: 49
High: 62
Precip: 20% AM
Wind: NNW 15-20


Monday
1-25-10

Low: 37
High: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Patchy fog early in the evening...then areas of dense fog after midnight.

Tuesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog. Isolated showers in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...South winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.

Wednesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas building to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday Night...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

High Rain Chances Through Saturday...Sunday Looks Good...Could Next Week Feel Like Spring???

Thursday, January 14, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today's forecast was right on track with off and on light, nagging rain and milder temperatures. The string of minimum temperatures of 35 or lower was broken this morning as the morning low at Lake Charles was in the lower 40s. Afternoon highs were near the seasonable norms for mid-January, which is right around 60. A few peaks of sun were noted across the area, more noticeably over Acadiana. The light showers were the result of minor short waves rotating through in the established SW flow aloft. This is out ahead of a more significant rain maker slated for Friday and Saturday. The weather map tonight will show more of the same with periods of light rain and showers across the forecast area from time to time. Nothing overly heavy will occur, and it won't rain all night as these minor perturbations continue. Overnight lows will be above normal in the mid to upper 40s with an Easterly wind around 10 mph.

Gulf cyclogenesis is occurring this evening over the Western Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Northern Mexico and Southern Texas. The other component to this rain maker is clearly evident on satellite imagery tonight. This is the form of an upper level low over the Desert SW pushing into New Mexico tonight. This and advancing trough digging SE out of the Rockies have aided in Gulf cyclogenesis. This will all combine to raise rain chances into the likely category for Friday and nearly max them out for Friday night into Saturday. Friday will be similar to today to start out with off and on light rain or showers for the morning hours as more minor short waves rotate out ahead of the main upper level low and surface low. A widespread stratiform rain shield will affect the Gulf waters, and slowly move towards the coastline. Rain will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day, and the wind will follow suit in response to a strengthening pressure gradient force across the region with the combination of lows. The forecast area should remain on the cool, stable side of the storm with any threat for severe weather and extreme rainfall remaining over the Gulf waters in the vicinity of the low. The area of stratiform rain will move inland throughout the day, and the highest rain chances will remain across the Southern half of the forecast area. Rain chances will be tempered downward for the Northern half of the forecast area. The heaviest rainfall totals and highest rain chances will come along the coast as per orientation of the Gulf low. The milder temperature regime will be interrupted due to the clouds and rain, with high temperatures just shy of normal in the upper 50s.

The worst of the weather this forecast period comes overnight Friday into Saturday as the lows make their closest approach to the area. The upper level low will be coming across from W to E out of Texas, and the Gulf low will continue its slow NE progression towards the tip of SE Louisiana. The track of the low will again result in low instability over land, and keep any severe threat over the marine area. Some elevated convection is possible late Friday night and Saturday morning as some cold air aloft will be generated by the upper level low. The most likely time for heavy rainfall across the area will come Saturday morning as the lows make their closest approach. This latest coastal storm is less than 24 hours out now, and it certainly appears that we will dodge the heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat. Rainfall totals should be about 1-2" across the Southern half of the forecast area, with up to 1/2" for the Northern half. Lower Acadiana could see amounts in excess of 3" since they will be closer to the aforementioned low. As the low rides NE, and exits stage right Saturday, rain will continue well into the afternoon as wrap-around moisture on the back side of the low continues to produce rainfall across the area. Boundary layer moisture will remain more than adequate, thus the high rain chances continue. After some heavier rain Saturday morning, rainfall should transition back to more a Improvement will finally occur late Saturday into Saturday night as drier air moves in as Pacific high pressure displaces the low pressure and takes control for the remainder of the weekend. The air mass in place for tomorrow and Saturday isn't overly cold, but temperatures will have a hard time surpassing 50 on Saturday with the widespread rain and gusty winds. The winds on the backside of the low will pull down some cooler Great Plains air. CAA dominates during the day Saturday, and temperatures could slowly fall through the day, but it won't be anywhere near as cold as last weekend, and all precip will remain liquid. It will be a great day to stay inside and watch the Saints game! Geaux Saints!!!

Clearing skies occur Saturday night, and this will set up a fantastic second half of the weekend for Sunday. I would term the temperatures for Saturday night as seasonably chilly. As skies clear, and winds slacken decent radiational coling should occur. Minimums should reach the mid to upper 30s. I wouldn't rule out some patchy fog overnight into early Sunday morning either due to the low-level moisture remaining in place as the after effects of the rain. Sunday looks beautiful. Skies should be sunny and temperatures will be seasonal...highs around 60. Benign weather continues for the Sunday night and Monday time frame as the Pacific high dominates. Temperatures will continue to increase, and after a chilly start to Monday with lows in the upper 30s, afternoon highs will exceed 60. The Gulf flow returns Monday night as the high exits into Dixie. The weather remains dry with high pressure in tact in the upper levels. With the return flow commencing, fog could be an issue for this period as well, but further assessment will be given in later forecasts. A WAA regime should unfold at this time, and low temperatures will respond. I expect the Tuesday morning minimums to be in the middle 40s. This is slightly above the seasonal norm.

Clouds will increase on Tuesday, but it should be another dry day with the upper level ridging continue for one more day. The return flow will intensify as a large Pacific storm system approaches for the mid-week period. Winds will increase along with low-level moisture and surface temperatures. It is possible that max temps could reach 70 degrees, and if models keep trending that way this weekend I will forecast 70 or thereabout. For now, mid to upper 60s will suffice for day 5. This next Pacific trough could be negatively tilted as it comes out of the Great Plains. Rain chances are certainly back in the forecast for Wednesday, but it could come in the form of strong to severe thunderstorms if the trough is indeed negatively tilted, and Jet Stream energy induces cyclogenesis in the Plains or near the Red River Valley. It is far too early to speculate on this matter, and certainly too early to forecast it, however, consistency is there that it's going to rain on Wednesday, so rain chances are rather high for that period. Warm and windy will also be in the forecast for Wednesday with the advancing storm. Temperatures could flirt with 70 once again, but with the added cloud and expected thunderstorms I will keep temperatures in the 60s for maximums while morning lows reach the lower 50s. Is Mother Nature trying to balance things out across the area after a very cold start to the year? There is a lot of uncertainty as to what happens in the wake of this frontal passage. Models diverge and the forecast is in limbo for day 7. One model run shows a continued fast moving zonal flow with high pressure building in and sunny skies with seasonable temperatures, while another one shows the front stalling in the Gulf and another Gulf low forming keeping an overrunning situation across our area with cloudy and cool conditions and off and on rain. I will hinge upon a wetter solution at this time with the established pattern, and the present El Nino being key factors in this forecast reasoning. I will also undercut guidance just a bit for temps with CAA in place, and the continued cloud cover and possible rain. Looking out just beyond the forecast period, the end of next week looks dry and seasonable as the zonal flow continues. Models indicate another potent Pacific storm system over the following weekend. The long range models indicate an active El Nino pattern for the rest of the month, very similar to what we experienced in December. At this same time, the cold Arctic air will be reloading over Canada, and slowly oozing to the South. There are hints of another negative spike in the NAO towards month's end, and this would favor another blast from the Arctic, but we'll see. Often times, some of our coldest weather of the whole season comes in early February.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  47/58  45/50  38/59  40 60 80 90 0 0
LFT   46/59  47/52  39/60  40 60 80 90 0 0
BPT   49/61  43/51  40/61  60 60 80 90 0 0
AEX  41/55  40/45  35/55  30 40 60 70 0 0
POE  42/56  41/46  36/56  30 40 60 70 0 0
ARA  47/62  51/55  40/60  40 60 80 90 0 0


Tonight...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 47. East wind 10 mph.

Friday...Cloudy and windy with rain likely. High 58. ENE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.

Friday Night...Cloudy and windy with rain a few thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall at times. Low 45. NE wind 20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.

Saturday...Cloudy and windy with rain likely. Rain could be heavy at times in the morning. Rain tapering off late. High 50. North wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.

Saturday Night...Decreasing Cloudiness. Low 38. NW wind 10-15 mph.

Sunday...Sunny. High 59. North wind 10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Friday
1-15-10

Low: 47
High: 58
Precip: 60%
Wind: ENE 15-25


Saturday
1-16-10
Geaux Saints!!!

Low: 45
High: 50
Precip: 90%
Wind: N 15-20
W.C.: 30s


Sunday
1-17-10

Low: 38
High: 59
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10


Monday
1-18-10
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

Low: 39
High: 63
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10


Tuesday
1-19-10

Low: 44
High: 67
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15


Wednesday
1-20-10

Low: 52
High: 68
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Thursday
1-21-10

Low: 47
High: 53
Precip: 40%
Wind: NNE 15-20


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6a.m. Saturday.*

From the NWS LCH...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING. MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF PATHY FOG IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LAKES AND BAYES TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL START LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATER THIS WEEKEND. TIDES WILL MAY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

---

Tonight...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday...East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon. Showers likely and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:    8:37a.m.    8:26p.m.
High:    4:05p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

   170.04'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Low:               43
Normal Low:  41
Record Low:  20-1964
High:              63
Normal High: 60
Record High: 80-1907

Precipitation
Today:                            Trace
Month to Date:                0.43"
Normal Month to Date:   2.56"
Year to Date:                  0.43"
Normal Year to Date:     2.56"
Record:                          1.25"-1946


Sunrise Friday:         7:10a.m.
Sunset Friday:          5:35p.m.

Friday Hunting Times:  6:40a.m.-6:05p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday January 15

First Quarter- Saturday January 23

Full Moon- Saturday January 30

Last Quarter- Friday February 5


This Date in Weather History...January 14: There's a song that says "It Never Rains in Southern California" while maybe someone should sing one that says it never snows in Southern California...or does it??? It did on this day way back 1882. An astounding 15" fell at San Bernardino, and even a trace was recorded in San Diego. A few years earlier in 1863, Cincinnati, OH recorded its heaviest snowfall on record. 20" of snow blanketed the city once the snowstorm was over, this shattered the old record of 11".


Here's another new feature to the blog called Did You Know! It is interesting weather facts from all over the world, and meteorological terminology.

Did You Know...You hear me talk about the Jet Stream all the time, but what is it??? Jet streams are very strong winds that blow up high in the atmosphere ~ 6 miles or so. They can be up to 2,500 miles long, but no more than 310 miles wide. The Jet Stream was virtually unknown until World War II when pilots found their air speed reduced when they were flying against the Jet Stream.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Next Rain Event on Track...Improvement Late in the Weekend...Much Milder Pattern for Awhile...

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

*My thoughts and prayers go out to the victims of the Haiti Earthquake.*

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was yet another morning with below freezing temperatures to make it 10 straight days officially at Lake Charles, and 12 straight days at some locations. This is very rare for the area, as there is often many winters we go through were we don't have freezing temperatures on 10 days over the course of the entire season, much less 10 days in a row. This prolonged streak of below freezing minimum temperatures will end tonight as our next storm system begins to unfold. It wasn't a bad day at all across the area with lots of sunshine and a pleasant afternoon after a cold start. Lows this morning were around 30 while afternoon highs were near the seasonable average in the mid to upper 50s. Plenty of sunshine was around as high pressure dominated the forecast area for one more day. High clouds began streaming into the area ahead of a South Texas short wave, and weak upper level low over Central Texas. Clouds have continued to increase tonight as the much advertised strong El Nino storm system begins to make its presence known. The initial short wave and weak upper level low are ejecting NE through SE Texas tonight, and will slide across the forecast area overnight resulting in some shower activity across the area. Most of the rainfall should be light, but an occasional moderate to heavy shower can't be ruled out. It will remain cool with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. However, Southern portions of the area will likely temperatures beginning to rise overnight as the initial S/WV moves through, and with Western Gulf cyclogenesis a WAA regime will commence.

On Thursday, overcast conditions are a given, but most of the initial overnight rains should be out of the area as the passing short wave moves on. However, our attention will be on Gulf cyclogenesis at this time, as well the next advancing trough currently diving through the Rockies. Our nemesis the Subtropical Jet Stream is back at it as well. This will only advance a complex weather situation. Rain chances return Thursday afternoon as the surface low moves slowly to the NE towards SE Louisiana, and more perturbations rotate in advance of the impinging Pacific system. Rain will develop over the Gulf waters, and progress towards our coastline. The advancing short waves will bring rain chances back to the forecast area Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, but most of the heavy rainfall associated with the Gulf low should remain over the Gulf. Short waves will continue to move out in advance of the main trough which will be moving across our area Friday into Saturday. Moderation of temperatures continues Thursday with afternoon highs possibly reaching 60. It won't be near as cold Thursday night either as the WAA regime is in place. Expect overnight minimums in the mid to upper 40s...slightly above normal, if you can believe that.

Rain chances will increase further on Friday as the surface low will be the main weather feature. However, there is a bit of good news this forecast package, as it appears the models believe the low will track a bit further SE than previously thought. If this were to come to fruition then much of the heavy rainfall would remain over the Gulf, and up towards SE Louisiana. SW Louisiana would remain in the cool sector of the storm. This would mean no severe weather, and just a general nagging widespread rain, like we've seen many times this season thus far. Rain could certainly be heavy at times, and I wouldn't even rule out some rumbles of thunder by Friday evening as the set up favors elevated convection. Also, a noted difference this forecast period is the fact that I don't believe it will rain throughout the day Friday. I believe we'll have another break between short waves once again. However, by Friday afternoon widespread rain should dot the landscape once again. I still believe we'll see 2-3" of rain this event, but the highest totals will be nearest the coast and in the offshore waters. Friday maximums should be near normal in the mid to upper 50s. It will remain on the cool side based on the track of the low, however, any deviation further NE would mean a warmer forecast than currently depicted. A slower moving system will delay the onset of the widespread rainfall until Friday afternoon or Friday evening.

Rain chances will be at their highest for the Friday night/Saturday morning as the low makes its closest approach to the coast, and the trough advances towards the forecast area. Lift will be at a maximum, and instability values will be on the rise as well. Therefore, a widespread rainfall is expected, but no severe weather. At this time, it looks like we should avoid a flood threat at least from rainfall. We've been in an overall dry pattern since the first of the year, and this will help as we contend with this event. Coastal flooding could still be an issue as the low pressure deepens offshore, and high pressure is anchored over the East coast, as well as one pushing down from the Rockies behind the aforementioned trough. Rainfall will be widespread Friday night through Saturday, as the low moves by. Don't be surprised if you hear some thunder during this time due to the added instability, but again no severe weather is expected. Saturday we'll transition from heavier, convective, cumuliform rains to steady, non-convective, stratiform rains as the low pushes away. Wrap-around moisture is expected for the duration of the day, and overrunning precipitation is expected to continue with generally light rain and/or drizzle expected. CAA will also be established on the back side of the low Friday night into Saturday with morning lows near 40, and highs will struggle to reach 50. It will be cold and raw as NNE winds pick up behind the low. Expect wind gusts over 25 mph at times, and sustained winds at 15-20 mph. Saturday should be a great day to stay indoors and watch the Saints game as the misery goes on outside! Geaux Saints! Improvement in weather conditions is noted by Saturday afternoon as the overrunning slowly erodes with the Great Plains high building SE. Rains will slowly come to an end on Saturday night from W to E across the area. This will still be a very strong and deep Gulf storm, but it doesn't appear as though we'll get the max effects of the system like it appeared on Monday.

A vast improvement is in store for Sunday as the wrap around moisture clears the area, and any chance of rain ends before sunrise. Skies will clear Sunday morning with high pressure becoming the controlling factor the next couple of days now. The air mass that will be in place behind this system is a Pacific air mass, so major CAA is not expected. It is solely the rain and clouds that will keep temperatures down on Saturday. However, for Sunday with expected sunshine by mid-late morning temperatures should rise to near normal buy mid afternoon. It will be a chilly start with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Light winds and clear skies/sunny skies are expected Sunday night and Monday. A nice day is in store on Monday for anyone who may be off. As the title indicates, a much milder pattern is in place for awhile, and this will be evident on Monday as highs reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday morning lows will be chilly with most readings from the low to mid 30s expected. A few locations may hit freezing, but for the most part it won't be a significant freeze at any rate. It will feel nice outside with the sunshine and light wind, and just simply because it's so much warmer than the air mass we're coming out of. The dominating Pacific high quickly moves East Monday night as the early winter pattern is re-established over the area.

Dry weather continues for Monday night and Tuesday, but a return flow commences as the weather pattern gets set to repeat itself by mid-week. Clouds will increase Monday night as the controlling high shifts East, and a strengthening zonal flow over the area continues to control the weather. The pattern across the country at the beginning of the work week will be a split flow, which I described on Monday. This zonal flow is generally fairly fast, and it will also keep the cold air bottled up to our North for now. Another Pacific trough will be digging through the Rockies by Tuesday, and this will help to strengthen the Gulf flow. Low-level moisture will increase as Great Plains cyclogenesis occurs. A few showers will be expected with the deep low-level flow in place. Temperatures will do an "about-face" compared to this week and trend above climo. Readings should climb well into the 60s by Tuesday. The STJ gets charged once again in response to the strengthening Great Plains trough, and kicks up yet another Gulf low by Wednesday. Thus, higher rain chances will return to the forecast at the end of the period. Heavy rain could occur, but this is all dependent on the track of the low. The mild temperature regime will continue as the Gulf low will cause the front associated with the Pacific trough to hold up off to our NW. The front should cross the forecast area at the end of day 7 as the low ejects into the Central Gulf. Cooler and drier air is indicated by models for the end of next week in the wake of the front, but nothing overly cold with the zonal flow continuing into the final full week of the month. A pattern shift towards the end of the month is indicated by the long range NAO, which could be the signs of another visit from the Arctic towards the first of February.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  43/60  48/55  41/47  40 40 60 70 80 80
LFT   37/59  46/57  43/49  30 40 60 70 80 80
BPT   46/62  50/54  40/46  40 40 60 70 80 70
AEX  31/54  45/51  36/41  40 40 40 60 80 80
POE  33/55  46/52  37/43  40 40 40 60 80 80
ARA  34/58  47/59  44/50  40 40 60 70 80 80


Tonight...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 43. Temperatures slowly rising through the night. East wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. High 60. East wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 48. East wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Friday...Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely. High 55. NE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.

Friday Night...Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms likely. Low 41. NNE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.

Saturday...Cloudy with rain likely. Heavy rain at times in the morning. Rain tapering off to light rain and/or drizzle in the afternoon. Colder. High 47. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Thursday
1-14-10

Low: 43

High: 60

Precip: 40%

Wind: E 10-15

Friday

1-15-10

Low: 48

High: 55

Precip: 60%

Wind: NE 15-20

Saturday

1-16-10

Low: 41

High: 47

Precip: 80%

Wind: NNW 15-20

W.C.: 30-35

Sunday

1-17-10

Low: 34

High: 54

Precip: 0%

Wind: N 10-15

W.C.: 25-35 A.M.

Monday

1-18-10

Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

Low: 35

High: 58

Precip: 0%

Wind: NE/SE 10

W.C.: 30-40 A.M.

Tuesday

1-19-10

Low: 41

High: 63

Precip: 20%

Wind: SSE 10-15

Wednesday

1-20-10

Low: 48

High: 64

Precip: 60%

Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20

...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A chance of showers.

Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday...East winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely.

Saturday...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain likely.


...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      8:06a.m.      8:09p.m.
High:      3:49a.m.     11:16p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    170.20'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Low:               30
Normal Low:  41
Record Low:  16-1912
High:              57
Normal High: 60
Record High: 82-2000

Precipitation
Today:                           0.00"
Month to Date:              0.43"
Normal Month to Date:  2.37"
Year to Date:                 0.43"
Normal Year to Date:    2.37"
Record:                         2.73"-1977


Sunrise Thursday:      7:10a.m.
Sunset Thursday:       5:35p.m.

Thursday Hunting Times:    6:40a.m.-6:05p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday January 15

First Quarter- Saturday January 23

Full Moon- Saturday January 30

Last Quarter- Friday February 5


This Date in Weather History...January 13: Gulf Coast Winter Storm! A winter storm is rare on the Gulf Coast, but the one that occurred on January 12-13, 1997 takes the cake. A low formed along an old Arctic frontal boundary in the Western Gulf, and moved NE along the front towards Florida. Overrunning precipitation spread across Texas and Louisiana. The cold air in place across the area resulted in the precipitation falling in a frozen or freezing form all the way down to the coast. Snow occurred along the I-20 corridor from North Texas into Mississippi, and sleet fell from Central Texas through Central Louisiana, while closer to the coast along the I-10 corridor freezing rain was the predominant precipitation type. Major icing occurred in cities such as Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Lafayette. The freezing rain persisted for 2 days, and resulted in the loss of power for over 1/2 million people at the height of the storm. Power was out for up to a week in some locations. The ice storm resulted in millions of dollars in damage across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Damage equaled that of a category 2 hurricane, and it was by far the worst winter storm in history across the area. At the time it was the worst natural disaster in SW Louisiana history.

Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Remembering the Ice Storm of 1997...

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

One of the freakiest and costliest weather events in SW Louisiana History occurred on this date back in 1997. This is a look back at the worst winter storm that has ever affected the region. Do you remember where you were January 12-14, 1997? Many of you remember it as though it happened yesterday beings its so rare around these parts, and I know others don't remember or weren't living in the area at that time, so the purpose of this entry is to take a look back, and give you a little meteorology of the situation as well.

Winter weather events are a rare item in SW Louisiana, and forecasting them is no easy task. However, early in January 1997 forecasting skills were pushed to the brim as models insisted on a significant winter storm for the region so close to the Gulf of Mexico. It was uncertain at first as to what type of frozen precipitation would occur, but confidence was increasing in the days leading up to the ice storm. Ice storms are very complex systems to forecast, and a rarity here, as is any type of frozen precipitation event. You never know what to expect when winter weather is involved, and that was certainly the case with this event. Ice storms are more common through the Mid West and Northern U.S., but do occur on occasion along the Gulf Coast. Generally, if we receive frozen precip freezing rain is what we get, and that is almost entirely due to the Gulf itself.

It was a cold start to the new year as a period of cold, overrunning rains fell across the region. The culprit was a strong, shallow Arctic air mass which came through on January 5, displacing a mild regime since New Year's. The overrunning occurred from the 6th-9th with temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Forecast models indicated an even stronger Arctic air mass would move into the area around the 10th-11th, and then indicated a winter storm would occur sometime between the 11th-13th. Some models indicated snow, some freezing rain and/or sleet, but the consistency was there.

By the 11th it was clearly evident that an ice storm of significance was unfolding. The Arctic front had stalled in the Gulf of Mexico, and energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream caused a surface low to form (cyclogenesis) along the front off the Lower Texas Coast. This set up prompted a series of disturbances (short waves) embedded in the Jet Stream to rotate through the area. Very cold air infiltrated the region behind the front on Friday the 10th, and a dry and cold day prevailed with some high clouds moving in ahead of the Gulf low. Moisture increased and overran the cold air in the overnight hours of January 11, and light precip broke out across the area before midnight on the 12th as the first short wave rotated through. The precip was light snow as a layer of cold air still remained in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures were near freezing at that time. Lake Charles reported light snow for a few hours between 11p.m. on the 11th and 2a.m. on the 12th. Much of the snow didn't accumulate as the air remained very dry early on with the Arctic air firmly entrenched. It would take a while for the atmospheric column to moisten up. The snow ended early on Sunday, the 12th, and overcast skies prevailed with no precipitation across the area until around sunrise. A more potent short wave moved in, and at the time the layer of cold air in the mid levels of the atmosphere had eroded as the warm layer of Gulf air ahead of the surface low moved up over the top of the surface cold air. You have to remember here, that cold air is denser and sinks, while warm air rises.

Widespread precipitation began across the forecast area after sunrise Sunday morning, and continued throughout the day and through the day on Monday the 13th as well as repetitive perturbations moved through ahead of the NE advancing Gulf low. Mostly light to moderate precipitation occurred, and it was all in the form of sleet and freezing rain across the area. A significant snow storm occurred where the colder air was deeper across North Louisiana with up to 6" of snow in some areas up that way. Here, it was a matter of location as to what p-type occurred. From the coastline to the I-10 corridor it was the nastiest of all precip types...freezing rain, while North of I-10 up through Central Louisiana sleet was the dominant precip mode for the duration of the event. The freezing rain and sleet coated nearly every surface with significant ice accumulations. Roads became treacherous and were closed in many locations. Along the I-10 corridor from Beaumont to Lafayette, the freezing rain caused widespread power outages and downed several trees in the area. The most significant damage done by the ice storm was right over Calcasieu Parish. Many portions of the area from Beaumont to Lake Charles were in the dark for up to 6 days in some instances. Schools and businesses closed for the week of the 13th.

Major ice accumulations of 1/2-1" accumulated on nearly everything, and it was the weight of the ice on the trees and power lines that led to all the problems. Roads that weren't icy were nearly impassable anyway because of trees or power lines in the road. The precipitation fell near continuously from the morning of the 12th through the evening of the 13th when the short waves finally exited the region, and as the slow moving surface low moved closer to the area. Temperatures fell below freezing area wide on the morning of the 12th, and remained there until the afternoon of Tuesday the 14th. Problems first arose on Sunday the 12th during the afternoon hours. Power outages began being reported during the NFL Playoffs, and at the height of the storm on Monday nearly half a million people lost power across the area. Another problem arose on the afternoon of the 14th. As temperatures warmed above freezing, the ice began melting, and was falling off of structures. This created another hazard, and made navigating treacherous. The falling chards of ice led to more downed trees and power lines resulting in more power outages. This made conditions life threatening if one was caught under some falling ice. The ice storm was at the time the costliest natural disaster in SW Louisiana history. Damage estimates exceeded several millions of dollars, and we all learned just how severe ice storms can be. Clean up from the ice storm lasted well into the summer of 1997 as tree and limb removal was a lengthy process across the entire area.

Of course I was not a meteorologist at the time, but had a deep interest in the weather at the time, and did my own forecasting for the event. I was confident enough that some ice would occur, but even I was not totally sure what to expect. Not only did I learn a lot from the ice storm, it also helped to solidify my dream and passion of pursuing a career in meteorology. In closing, I want to give you a brief lesson in meteorology, and at the same time answer the question why snow is very rare here.

The ice storm was caused by what we refer to in meteorology as isentropic lift or the overrunning effect. This is when there is cold air at the surface, and warm up rides up and over the cold air at the surface. Winds are generally in a North or Northeastward direction at the surface and from the Southwest aloft. This is a very common occurrence down here in the winter months. This produces all those rainy and cold to cool days that are so common in South Louisiana. It's very rare that any ice storm lasts as long as the 1997 storm did ( 2 1/2 days). Most of them last no more than 24 hours.

Why did the precip fall mostly as freezing rain here along the I-10 corridor? Well, it all depended on how much warm air was aloft. In this case, the layer of warm air was thick enough to completely melt the snow as it fell toward the surface, and there was not enough cold air aloft for the precipitation to refreeze before making contact with the ground and other surfaces that were at or below freezing. (Freezing Rain.)The temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere say between 850-700 mb. or so were in the 40s to near 50 at the height of the storm with the layer of warm Gulf air.  If the precipitation falls, melts, and then refreezes before reaching the surface, it is called Sleet. If the precipitation is frozen all the way to the ground then it is snow.

So, now you know why snow is rare here. It's because of the Gulf of Mexico and the warm moist air coming up out of the Gulf. Another example of this effect that I can give, can be found right in your own home. Just simply go open your refrigerator, barefooted, you will feel the cold air on your feet, before you feel it at your head. I'm sure we'll experience another ice storm one day, but no one knows when or how severe it will be. Each winter storm is a different animal, and the synoptic features and set up for each one can be vastly different. Next time, we have a winter weather threat I hope you will better understand some of the difficulty involved in forecasting such an event.

-DM-

Two More Nights of Freezes, but Not as Cold...Major Gulf Storm at the End of the Week...

Monday, January 11, 2010

Before I get to the forecast discussion, I just want to remind you that the blog is now back at full capacity. Also, this week marks the 13th anniversary of the worst winter storm in SW Louisiana History...the Ice Storm of 1997! I will post a special blog entry on Wednesday to rehash the event, and discuss the synoptic set up of the event, and all of the meteorology involved in forecasting such an unprecedented event around here. If you have any questions or comments regarding the Ice Storm of 1997 just drop me a line at any time. Now onto the forecast discussion...

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was another frigid start on this Monday as temperatures ranged from the upper 10s to lower 20s once again for the 3rd consecutive morning, and it was the 4th straight morning of hard freeze conditions. It was a beautiful Monday across the area as the weakening Arctic high continued to dominate the weather. Skies were sunny for a majority part of the day. Some high cirrus clouds rolled in during the afternoon in response to a minor short wave out ahead of a re-enforcing cold front. Moderation occurred this afternoon as temperatures climbed to around 50 or just above in most areas. A very light return flow is in place tonight ahead of the dry re-enforcing front. This front will move through with very little in the way of moisture to work with, and no rain is expected as it pushes through after midnight. Temperatures will once again be below freezing, but as the air mass modification continues it won't be near as cold. Most areas should remain above hard freeze criteria. The immediate coast should escape freezing temperatures all together. Expect the Tuesday morning low to range from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds will kick back around to the NW after midnight as the boundary clears the area.

The core of the cold air behind this front will not be near as cold as the current retreating air mass, and we'll only receive a glancing blow from the air mass. Therefore, not much change in temperature is expected, and it will essentially help to level off temperatures for the next couple of days. Benign weather is expected on Tuesday as the re-enforcement high builds in temporarily. Sunny skies are expected, and the air will remain very dry. Temperatures will be similar to that of today, perhaps a degree or two warmer, but lower 50s should suffice. The air mass moving in behind the front will not affect overnight temperatures for Tuesday night much either as the core of the cold air slides to our East. Another freeze is in store for Tuesday night. Temperatures will be a tad colder, but should still stay above hard freeze conditions for much of the area. The exception will be across Central Louisiana where temperatures could be as cold 22 or 23. The rest of the area should be in the 25-30 range. The immediate coast will flirt with the freezing mark, but no matter where you are it won't be near as cold as it has been. If the temperatures drop below freezing for the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as expected then that will mark 10 straight days with a below freezing minimum at Lake Charles, and as much as 13 straight days for portions of the area. This is a streak that has not been matched in quite some time. In an average year, we don't see 10 freezes over the course of the 3 month winter period, much less in one month.

This overall cold pattern will be changing this week, and this should begin after the morning freeze on Wednesday. It should still be a dry day Wednesday, but clouds will increase during the day as a return flow is established as the re-enforcing high vacates the area. At this same time, our next storm system will be taking shape. There are multiple meteorological components that will come together to produce a very significant storm. The next advancing trough is diving into the Pacific Northwest tonight. The primary weather pattern across the country will shift to a 'split flow'. This means there will be the presence of 2 Jet Streams across the country...the STJ (Subtropical Jet) and the main Polar Jet. The Polar Jet will shift back towards the North, after being down into the Gulf this weekend, and the STJ will become active and stream over our area once again. The digging trough over the Pacific NW split, sending a part of it to the South towards our area. The advancement of this system will engender cyclogenesis over the Western Gulf off the lower Texas coast. This is same pattern we've endured plenty of times already this season. (El Nino). The Arctic air has cut us a reprieve from this pattern so far this year. This comes to an end by Thursday. For the last dry day on Wednesday, temperatures will once again remain below normal with maximum similar to Tuesday in the mid 50s. The WAA pattern ahead of the developing storm system takes a firm grip on the forecast area Wednesday night with lows above freezing for the entire forecast area, though the Northern portions of the area will be close. Mid to upper 30s seem feasible for overnight minimums heading into Thursday morning.

I couldn't rule out a shower or two Wednesday night after midnight with the advancement of the trough and formation of the low resulting in increasing isentropic lift across the area. The moderating trend will continue as WAA strengthens. The low pressure will only move slowly up the coast. Rain chances will increase throughout the day Thursday. Rainfall will be scattered at first as some streamer showers will be possible especially closest to the coast where isentropic lift will be greatest. Rain will become likely Thursday afternoon as the surface low, and short waves embedded in the STJ advance NE across the forecast area. The set up favors widespread stratiform rainfall at this time. Temperatures will continue to moderate, and highs should be just shy of 60. The stratiform rains continue on Thursday night as the low slides NE up the coast, and the rain overspreads the region. Overnight lows Thursday will be in low to mid 40s...seasonable. This will break the streak the mornings with below freezing temperatures.

The worst conditions of the week come on Friday and Friday night it appears. The surface low will make its approach to the coast, and move inland over the forecast area. The exact track and timing of said occurrence is still uncertain, but it should be Friday afternoon, and track very close to Lake Charles. As I discussed last night, this system is forecast to become vertically stacked. This may result in a slower forward speed of the surface low, therefore, the rain may last a longer duration. The specifics of this will be hammered out tooth and nail later this week, right now though, it is essential that you understand that all the makings of a prolonged rain event are in place. The low tracks into the forecast area, and brings with it the possibility of cumuliform rain. There will be plenty of forcing and upper level dynamics for this system to work with, but the main inhibiting factor will be instability. The low and associated trough are the present forcing mechanisms. Rain could become heavy at times Friday as the deep moisture associated with the low overspreads the forecast. There will be the potential for several inches of rain Friday. We've been in a much drier pattern to start the year with all the cold air in place. Rainfall totals so far for the new year are less than an inch. However, the soil content is still very wet, and the ground is very hard now with all the cold weather. We will exceed an inch of rain very easily for this event, how much we ultimately wind up remains to be seen. The potential for flooding rains will exist as the low works into the region Friday afternoon. The low will be strengthening as it moves up the coast as well. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the forecast area, and over the coastal waters. The end result is strong, gusty winds on Friday. I don't anticipate severe weather at this time, however, areas to the right of the low could experience some sort of severe weather threat depending on how much WAA entrains into the system, and how much instability is generated. Rain chances will end up maxing out for the Friday-Friday night period as the entire mess conglomerates over SW Louisiana/SE Texas. It won't exactly be warm while its raining, but Friday's temperatures should be in the mid to upper 50s...again, this is about seasonable for mid-January.

The rain chances will stick with us through Saturday. Heavy rain will once again be possible for Friday night with maximum isentropic lift in place as the low pulls NE into Louisiana. The Friday night period should also see maximum rain chances, with some reprieve possible late. Weak CAA will begin as the low pulls away Friday night, and overnight minimums should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. All precipitation should stay in the liquid form. The wind will once again be an issue as the low deepens further, and high pressure coming down the spine of the Rockies tries to build in. Winds will continue to be out of the NNW around 20 mph because of the pressure differences. Winds to hurricane force are possible in the offshore waters. Rain is likely for Saturday too, however, how much rain and when it quits remains to be seen. There are some models that indicate rain ends sometime Saturday while others believe it will continue into Sunday. For purposes of this forecast, I will blend these ideas. Rain chances certainly continue into Saturday. The synoptic scale set up features this low deepening quite rapidly, especially since it will be El Nino and STJ enhanced. This is going to be a very dynamic system, and is sure to wreak havoc across the area. Conditions only slowly improve Saturday as the low pulls away, and the overrunning slowly relaxes. Saturday will be quite raw with the gusty winds, rain, and falling temperatures most likely. Highs should be in the mid 40s, but wind chills will be in the 30s. Nothing is cold compared to what it has been, although it will feel very cold with the cold and rain in the area. It's still a bit premature as the system hasn't really gotten its act together yet, but here is a QPF (Qualitative Precipitation Forecast). QPF is basically the estimated expected rainfall for a particular area.

Saturday night is when a noticeable improvement occurs as the low departs, and CAA is established once again. I don't think we'll shed the clouds just yet, and certainly have to mention a chance of rain in this pattern as there will be plenty of residual moisture in place. Overnight lows will hit the 30s, and northern areas may flirt with the freezing mark. However, the rain should stay all liquid, and it will end before it gets cold enough to support anything else. There could be a big snowstorm from Dallas to Atlanta during this time, but that remains to be seen as well. While there are still many uncertainties due to timing and amounts, and to a lesser extent, the degree of the system, it is certain that we'll have a prolonged rain event. Improvement continues for Sunday as the system continues to pull away, and Pacific High pressure builds in. The air mass behind this system is no where near as cold as its predecessor. Therefore, only seasonably cold weather is expected for Saturday night and Sunday. The Saturday maxes in the 40s will be held down by the rain and continued CAA. Max temperatures should eclipse the 50 degree mark Sunday as some sun peaks through by afternoon. Clouds will be slow to erode on Sunday, especially if there's plenty of wrap around moisture available generating a low-level temperature inversion and associated stratus deck. The high pressure builds in full throttle for the end of the forecast period Sunday night-Monday, and as a result clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures are expected with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s. Some people are likely off of work/school on Monday for a nice 3 day weekend for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. It looks like a nice day with plenty of sunshine and low humidity. Highs should approach 60. Looking long range, a warming rend is forecast to continue beyond the forecast period, and temperatures could reach above normal levels next week. That being said, winter isn't over, and I would expect more shots of Arctic air before the winter is over.


This Date in Weather History...January 11: Big-time Arctic Outbreak: The air mass that flooded the U.S. back in January of 1982 was even colder than the one that has us shivering at present. This Arctic outbreak peaked on this date in 1982. Several record lows were set in the Southern U.S., including 15 right here in Lake Charles. Single digits were experienced in the Northern half of the state. Alexandria bottomed out at 9 degrees, while Shreveport hit an amazing 5 degrees. Other notable record lows for the date of January 11, 1982 include -5 F at Atlanta, GA and -2 F at Birmingham, AL. Single digits were even recorded in parts of Florida with Pensacola reaching 8 F. In all, a total of 34 record lows were established across the country for the date.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  28/53  27/55  36/58  0 0 0 0 30 60
LFT   27/52  26/56  35/57  0 0 0 0 30 50
BPT   29/55  28/56  38/58  0 0 0 0 40 70
AEX  24/51  23/54  30/55  0 0 0 0 30 50
POE  25/52  24/55  31/55  0 0 0 0 30 50
ARA  27/53  26/57  37/58  0 0 0 0 30 50 


Tonight...Clear and Not Quite as Cold. Light Freeze. Low 28. Light SW wind, becoming NNW at 10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 53. North wind 10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Cold with Another Freeze. Low 27. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Increasing Cloudiness. High 55. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy and Warmer with a 30% chance of rain after midnight. Low 36. SE wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy with rain and a few thunderstorms developing. Rain becoming likely in the afternoon. High 58. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Tuesday
1-12-10

Low: 28
High: 53
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 25-35


Wednesday
1-13-10

Low: 27
High: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
W.C.: 25-35


Thursday
1-14-10

Low: 36
High: 58
Precip: 70%
Wind: SE 10-15
W.C: 30-40


Friday
1-15-10

Low: 42

High: 55

Precip: 100%

Wind: SE/NNE 15-25

Saturday

1-16-10

Low: 38

High: 44

Precip: 90%

Wind: NNE 15-20

W.C.: 25-35

Sunday

1-17-10

Low: 35

High: 53

Precip: 20%

Wind: NNW 10-15

W.C.: 25-35

Monday

1-18-10

Martin Luther King, Jr. Day

Low: 32

High: 57

Precip: 0%

Wind: N 10

W.C.: 25-40

...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 1 foot then 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

Tuesday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of rain after midnight.

Thursday...East winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:   6:55a.m.
High:   3:01p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

170.33'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, January 11, 2010

Low:               21
Normal Low:  41
Record Low:  15-1982
High:              52
Normal High: 60
Record High: 79-1980

Precipitation
Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               0.43"
Normal Month to Date:  1.99"
Year to Date:                 0.43"
Normal Year to Date:    1.99"
Record:                         1.65"-1946


Sunrise Tuesday:   7:10a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:    5:33p.m.

Tuesday Hunting Times:    6:40a.m.-6:03p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday January 15

First Quarter- Saturday January 23

Full Moon- Saturday January 30

Last Quarter- Friday February 5


Good night and God bless!
-DM-