Saturday, September 24, 2011
This is a special blog entry to remember our storm, Hurricane Rita. Rita was by far the worst natural disaster to ever affect our area. Rita will forever be engraved in our hearts and our minds, and while people outside of our small corner of the world may forget a storm that was at one time stronger than Katrina, we will never forget. I apologize in advance for the length of the blog entry, and I will have more information throughout the weekend.
How do you define fall? Football? Cooler weather? Both of those are things that sound great, and things we adore and look forward to around here with our long, miserably hot summers. You figure, the latter half of September, that long awaited cool down is near and we are a few weeks into football season. As weekends approach, we here in SW Louisiana, are making plans to enjoy all that our beautiful corner of the world has to offer. However, in September 2005, all of this was about to change. There was no sign of fall, as the first day of fall was marked with the worst weather that Mother Nature has ever thrown at us. I'm talking about Hurricane Rita. Our everyday way of life, our outdoor activities, our football was all second nature now as we braced for a life-threatening and life-changing storm. What made it even more surreal was the fact that the images and scenes of Hurricane Katrina, just three weeks prior, were still fresh on our minds. This was just at a time when the state was trying to return to some sense of normalcy. Here now, begins this year's look back at Hurricane Rita, SW Louisiana's Storm!
Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005 at 2:38 a.m. at Johnson Bayou,
LA. Rita, once a category 5 over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, made
landfall as a category 3 with 120 mph winds. The storm surge from Rita
was equivalent to that of a category 4 storm. The storm surge was as
high as 20' across portions of Cameron Parish and greater than 10'
across the entire SW Louisiana coastline. Coastal communities such as
Cameron, Holly Beach, Creole, and Johnson Bayou were completely
destroyed by Rita from the extreme storm surge. Major structural damage
from hurricane force winds over 100 mph occurred across a large area,
and extended well inland. Major damage occurred in Lake Charles,
Sulphur, Orange, Beaumont, and Port Arthur and all points in between.The
Lake Area experienced sustained hurricane force winds for 6-8 hours
from late on the 23rd through around sunrise on Saturday the 24th.
Tropical storm force conditions began during the afternoon on Friday the
23rd and continued through the afternoon hours on the 24th. The storm
surge penetrated as far inland as Lake Charles with water from the Gulf
backing up the Calcasieu River. The surge reached levels never before
seen in Lake Charles with 6-8' of water in downtown, these levels were
exceeded during Hurricane Ike.
Rita formed from a tropical wave that became better organized near the
Turks and Caicos Islands on the evening of September 17th. Rita steadily
strengthened and first effected the Florida Keys and South Florida as a
category 1 hurricane on Tuesday, September 20. Rita passed through the
Florida Straits later on the 20th, and entered the Gulf of Mexico. A
strengthening trend continued and Rita was a category 2 upon entrance
into the Gulf. Initially, Rita was forecast to make landfall along the
middle Texas coast near Corpus Christi, but many meteorologists were
becoming increasingly concerned that landfall would be further up the
coast. What happened next was amazing! Three weeks removed from Category
5 Hurricane Katrina, Rita underwent rapid intensification processes,
and attained Category 5 status with 175 mph sustained winds in the
middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions were absolutely perfect for
strengthening with a strong ridge of high pressure over the top of Rita
creating no shear in the Gulf, and a very high oceanic heating content.
Rita continued on a W to WNW course into the 21st, and on the evening of
Wednesday September 21, Rita reached peak intensity with winds of 175
mph and a pressure of 897 mb. or 26.49". At the time, that was the 3rd
lowest pressure ever recorded anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, surpassing
even Katrina. At the time of its peak intensity Rita's hurricane force
wind field extended outward 70 miles from the center, while the tropical
storm force wind field extended out to 185 miles from the center. The
wind field would later expand as the storm weakened. A continued bend in
the forecast models, and expansion of the wind field continued to raise
concerns for our area, and a direct hit from a major hurricane was
becoming more and more likely. The National Hurricane Center issued a
Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana and Texas coastline from Port
Mansfield, TX to Cameron on Wednesday afternoon.
On Thursday, September 22, the threat from Rita was realized even more
so, as a mandatory evacuation was ordered for Calcasieu Parish for the
first time in history. Rita maintained its category 5 strength through
the night of the 21st into the 22nd, and the forecast models were now
all clustered on landfall occurring near the Sabine River, which is a
worst case scenario for our area. Hurricane Warnings were put into
effect along the Texas and Louisiana coast from Port O'Connor to Morgan
City at 10a.m. on the 22nd. Hurricanes like Rita rarely maintain
category 5 intensity for very long periods of time, and Rita was a
category 5 for less than 24 hours. A slow weakening began during the
afternoon of the 22nd, as Rita encountered a bit of SW shear, and went
through the typical eyewall replacement cycles that hurricanes go
through. Rita remained a very dangerous category 4 hurricane into the
night on the 22nd, while everyone continued to heed the warnings and
evacuate the area. Millions of Gulf Coast residents evacuated, and this
created havoc and chaos on the interstate highway systems especially
across the Houston Metro area.
Rita continued on its collision course with SW Louisiana, and by Friday
September 23 a direct hit was inevitable. Rita had continued to weaken,
and was now at category 3, still a very formidable, and serious
hurricane with 130 mph winds. Conditions would deteriorate rapidly
during the day on the 23rd, and the outer rain bands from Rita began
moving across the area by lunch time. The wind field with Rita by 10a.m.
on the 23rd has reached 85 miles for hurricane force winds and 205
miles for tropical storm force. The tropical storm force winds moved
into coastal areas of SW Louisiana during the early afternoon hours, and
overspread the entire area by Friday night. Rita weakened only slightly
more before landfall, and weakened to a 120 mph category 3 storm at
landfall. Landfall occurred at Johnson Bayou at 2:38a.m. on Saturday,
September 24. Sustained hurricane force winds reached the coastline
between 6 and 8p.m. on the 23rd, and the first hurricane force gusts
occurred in Lake Charles shortly after 9p.m. Sustained winds of over 100
mph, and as high as 130 mph in some areas occurred across SW Louisiana
between midnight and 6a.m. on Saturday the 24th. After landfall, the eye
of Rita moved Northward through Western Cameron and Calcasieu Parish
and Eastern Jefferson and Orange County. The path of the eye was through
communities such as Johnson Bayou, Port Arthur, Vinton, Orange, and
Deweyville.While the eye of Rita didn't track right over the city of
Lake Charles, the position of the eye placed the city in the NE eye
wall, which is where the worst of the weather always is with hurricanes.
Many spin off tornadoes, the incredible storm surge, and the highest
winds occurred during this time. There were likely so many spin off
tornadoes with Rita, that to this date 6 years later, an accurate count
has not been given. Major damage occurred to many homes and businesses
in the area including the Capital One Tower downtown and major damage to
the terminal at the Lake Charles Regional Airport. There likely wasn't a
home or business in the area that didn't at least have some damage, and
many homes and businesses were severely damaged or destroyed by fallen
trees or storm surge. The surge in Cameron Parish was so severe, that in
many locations only a slab was left.
Our lives were turned upside down on September 24, 2005 by the very
worst of Mother Nature. As bad as the damage was from Rita, thankfully
the loss of life was minimal. A lot of this is likely attributed to
Katrina, because I feel that many wouldn't have evacuated if Katrina had
not occurred 3 weeks prior. Most of the fatalities with Rita were in SE
Texas and occurred during the evacuation from Houston. A bus accident
on I-45 between Houston and Dallas took the lives of 55 evacuees. 7
direct fatalities occurred with Rita, 3 of which were here in the Lake
Charles-Beaumont area. The total damage amount from Rita across the area
was $10 billion, making Rita one of the top 5 costliest natural
disasters on record. Rita was the first major hurricane to strike our
area directly in 48 years. Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was the last, and
hopefully it will be a very long time before this occurs again. Rita
changed SW Louisiana forever, and changed the way of life for a lot of
people, and our coastline will never be same. We have learned a lot of
lessons from Rita. There's so much more to say about Rita, and part two
will come tomorrow night. Here's a few images of Rita.
This is an image of Rita over the Gulf at peak intensity on 9/21/05
A radar image of Rita near landfall...Just before the worst of the storm moved into the Lake Charles area:
The site includes pictures of damage from around the area, and links to
satellite and radar images, and also features a comparison of Rita and
Audrey.
More to come tomorrow on Rita, including my own documentation of the
storm and evacuation. I was at ULM at the time.
We all have a story related to the storm, whether you evacuated or
stayed behind. Here's my personal account of the storm. This was written
shortly after the storm, and while I was still at ULM in the fall of
2005.
Hurricane Rita! The first major hurricane to hit
SW Louisiana in 48 years!
September
24, 2005 is a date none of us
here will ever forget! It's the day a lot of lives in our beautiful corner of
the world were turned upside down by the very worst of Mother Nature. Granted,
I'm not trying to take away from the severity of Hurricane Katrina here, but
Rita is by far the worst storm to ever hit the Lake Charles area. The national media coverage of Rita was more
than subpar. It was like Lake Charles & vicinity never even existed except
during the height of the storm, when you saw a few live reports from the city
on national media outlets, but then the day after the storm all the attention
was back on Katrina's aftermath, and how to rebuild the great city of New
Orleans.
I know we'll all have many many stories to tell for years to come about how
Rita affected our lives. I can't imagine the horror at the height of the storm
for those who stayed. As one who loves weather, part of me wanted to be right
here in the thick of the category 3 winds, but the human being in me, had more
sense about it all, and stayed in Alexandria at a relative's house. I drove down there from Monroe on Thursday before the storm, and my parents drove
off from our home here in Lake Charles that afternoon. It took them about 5 hours to reach Alexandria, a trip that normally takes around 90 minutes or so.
I was the only one heading South on Highway 165. That is a visual image that
will stick with me forever.
Before I get back into the meteorological aspect of Rita, I want to share some
personal feelings I had of Rita. For me, it seemed so surreal after seeing what
Rita did to SW Louisiana, after seeing the devastation of Katrina first hand
over Labor Day weekend. I was in utter shock and awe when I went to SE Louisiana the weekend after Katrina hit. The first time I came
back into Lake Charles after Rita was for fall break the 2nd week of October,
and while things were already improving across the area, I was even more in
shock after driving around town. You just can't believe something like that can
happen until you see it first hand. I didn't think I'd ever see any devastation
worse than what I encountered in the Covington-Mandeville area after Katrina,
but Rita's damage here in the Lake area surpasses that. I stress that, I by no means,
saw the worst of Katrina's damage, and I imagine that the damage in Mississippi is far far worse than that here in Lake Charles and surrounding areas. Cameron Parish, isn't too far
behind what happened in coastal Mississippi, and I've heard many people from
Cameron Parish who saw the devastation with Katrina in Mississippi, that this
is just as bad as that.
I have seen some of the damage in Cameron Parish up close, and it is by far the
worst thing I've ever seen. I haven't had a chance yet to get down to the Holly
Beach or Johnson Bayou area, but I hope to do so before returning to Monroe for the Spring semester. Here we are, about 3 and a
half months after the storm now, and there's still about 60-70% of the
structures in Calcasieu Parish with blue roofs, and much of Cameron Parish is
still uninhabitable with the mandatory evacuation being lifted just this week.
There have been many images on local TV and in the American Press of Cameron
Parish, and it is awful. Nothing hits you harder than seeing this happen in
your community. It is a blessing that there was very little loss of life here
in SW Louisiana/SE Texas because of Rita. I know, a lot of that was as a
result of Katrina. Everyone saw how catastrophic Katrina was, and knew that at
one point Rita was as strong as Katrina was. So, that combined, with the
efforts of our local officials to stress the mandatory evacuation, really
helped to cut down on the loss of life. Less than 10 lives combined have been
taken as a result of Rita in SW Louisiana/SE Texas.
The 2005 Hurricane season was historic in more ways that one, and it's one that
no one in SW Louisiana will ever forget thanks to just one of the 28 named
storms. Can we now officially put the 2005 hurricane to rest? One can
only hope, but after having Zeta form a month after the official end of
hurricane season, you never know.
Most everyone knows by now, that I disagreed all along with the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast for Rita's landfall to occur in Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Historically, most of the tropical storms make a
right hand turn, and in the end Rita was no exception. There were other reasons
that led me to believe that SW
Louisiana was in trouble. For
one, in the days preceding Rita, and really since Katrina the area had been
under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. We were at the tail end
of our summer pattern, but the pattern that set up during the middle of
September was more resemblent of July or August. Remember, it's usually around
mid-September in which we start getting cold fronts again. September 2005 was
different, however. The Bermuda High had built in across the area from the East, and
under normal circumstances this high would help produce our typical round of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We also were influenced by the big Desert
SW Ridge, that can build in from time to time in the summer months, and make it
down right miserably hot with temperatures over 100 (This was what produced the
hottest temperature ever recorded in Lake Charles back in the summer of 2000.)
So, this put what we call in meteorology, a cap on the atmosphere. Basically,
that means we had warm air aloft as well as at the surface, thus suppressing any
of the cumulus clouds from building up into the afternoon thunderstorm clouds.
Oddly enough, as a result of these high pressures influence the region, we had
our hottest stretch of weather this summer in the 4 days preceding Rita.
In their forecast discussions on Rita as she entered the Gulf of Mexico during the week of September 19th, the National Hurricane Center was consistent on the ridge holding firmly in place
across SW Louisiana, thus steering Rita to the west towards the middle Texas coast. Another point I should make here is that these
storms always follow the path of least resistance. I would read their
discussion at each of their updates, and then look at the latest model runs,
trying to forecast Rita's landfall. It's always a nervous time when there's a
storm in the Gulf, because there's always a chance it could be ours, and it has
to go somewhere once in the Gulf. From the time that Rita was developing,
and intensifying in the Florida
Keys, I had a feeling like I'd never had before
about a storm. I really felt like something was not right about this storm, I
just had that feeling of, I think this is the one. As a meteorologist, however,
you don't forecast your gut feeling, and I never like to stray away from the
National Hurricane Center's forecast for land falling tropical systems, as those
guys usually do an excellent job. I analyzed all the model data with each run,
and read other forecaster's opinions, and studied the synoptic pattern
(large-scale pattern) across the country at that time. For the first few days
of forecasting Rita, it was hard to get a read on what the models showed, as
they did their usual flip-flop job with Rita. As each day passed I began to
become increasingly concerned about a major hurricane threat in SW Louisiana,
but I, along with everyone else I'm sure, never dreamed Rita would intensify so
rapidly and become a category 5 like Katrina had done just 4 weeks earlier.
However, the Gulf did have time to recover after Katrina, because of the
unseasonably hot weather, and because the next few storms after Katrina were
Atlantic storms.
While my official forecast was very close to the National Hurricane Center's, deep down, I still felt like it was going to be
off-track. I based that on how the high pressures were set up at the time, and
I knew where they would likely begin to break down first. In this complex
situation of being influenced by 2 highs, they'd break down first right in the
middle of the 2 axes, and this happened to be over SW Louisiana/SE Texas. I wasn't sure if I thought Rita would hit on the Texas side of the Sabine, or the Louisiana side, but I felt like we were going to see hurricane
force winds in Lake
Charles. I
began telling my friends and family that I believe landfall would be between Sabine Pass and Cameron as a category 3 or 4. The Hurricane Center's forecast still called for landfall near Galveston on the 24th on the Wednesday night preceding Rita.
At that time I had just gotten off the phone with my mom, and was discussing
things with her. I was awaiting the new model runs around 10 p.m. that night, and just as I feared, they had all
shifted East, and also looking at Rita on satellite, it had taken more of a NW
jog. By the time I went to bed that night, I was really concerned. I woke up
Thursday morning to get ready for class, and my mom had been trying to get in
touch with me. She couldn't get through on the cell phone, so luckily I had
left my Instant Messenger connected that night, and she was able to get in touch
with me through that. She told me that Calcasieu Parish was under mandatory evacuation orders, and
that the storm had turned overnight. This was before I had a chance to look at
the latest model data and storm information. I told her that the storm had turned
more to the NW last night, before I went to bed, and the new model runs had
been shifting further East like I suspected they would. I checked a few more
things before I had to leave for class, and I told her, that indeed it was time
to leave Lake
Charles.
It was hard to concentrate on anything else that Thursday.
I went on to class, but planned to head to meet mom and dad in Alexandria that afternoon. There was no way I was going to be
away from my family at a time when our house might get torn up---I'm sure
everyone else from the area felt the same way.
I ran back to the room after class to pack some things to head to Alexandria for the weekend, and checked the latest data once
again. The models continue their Eastward shift, and now all of them had
landfall between Galveston and Vermilion Bay, with Sabine Pass being the point of landfall, if you split it down the
middle. Rita's wind field was larger than Katrina's, so at this point, I
believed it was almost certain we'd see at least category 1 winds in Lake Charles even if landfall occurred more towards Galveston.
I headed off to Alexandria that afternoon, and would check the latest update
once again when I got there. I set up shop at my aunt and uncle's house, and
gave them the latest information as we waited for mom and dad's arrival. The 10
p.m. update told the story I had been feeling all week long...prepare for a
direct hit from a major hurricane in SW Louisiana either late Friday or early
Saturday. I checked the synoptics of the situation once again, and I said
landfall could be right on the state line, that appeared to be where the
weakness in the ridge was strongest. The hurricane center anticipated a storm
surge of about 15' to the right of where landfall occurred. This would wipe out
most of the coastal communities in Cameron Parish, and drive water up the
Calcasieu Ship Channel creating storm surge of 6-8' in Lake Charles. The wind
field would produce winds over 100 mph in the Lake Charles and Beaumont areas with a landfall between Sabine Pass and Cameron.
Thursday night was a long night, as I spent most of it forecasting and got very
little sleep, and once I woke up on Friday I knew there'd be no sleeping again
until Rita was over with, which wouldn't be til Saturday night. So, in all, I was
up for about 36 hours straight. Conditions rapidly went downhill on Friday, the
23rd as Rita approached the coastline. The hurricane center continued to state
landfall would occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning in SE Texas or
SW Louisiana, and a wobble one way or the other would determine which side of
the state line it would occur on, but wouldn't really affect how strong the
winds would be since Rita's wind field was massive. In Alexandria, over 100
miles inland, I estimated a wind gust of 85 mph as the storm made its closest
approach to Alexandria around mid-morning Saturday.
Another image of Rita that will always stick in my mind is seeing FOX News
broadcasting from L'Auberge du Lac at 3 a.m. (just after landfall) and not being able to see
anything but all the horizontal rain. It was difficult to watch, as we've never
seen weather quite like that in this city in our lifetime. Even I as a
meteorologist, who is supposed to be a calm mediator during a time like that,
burst into tears. I think it was just me not knowing what's happening to my
house, and what will the city I've lived in, and loved all my life look like
tomorrow. We lost power twice in Alexandria, so most of the time during the height of the storm
my hands were tied, and my information was very limited. I did have full
capacity as the eye made landfall at 2:38 a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds. (Cat. 3).
The preliminary report which continues to be updated by the National Weather
Service here in Lake
Charles
shows that wind gusts over 130 mph were recorded along the Calcasieu Ship Channel. Looking at the damage around Calcasieu Parish, I'd say that that was highly possible. I'd
estimate winds near 120 mph here at my house, and I am convinced a spin-off
tornado from Rita's eastern eye wall traveled right down my street. The bushes
in my yard look as though they were nearly sucked right out of the ground, and
all the trees that were standing at the end of the street in the woods behind
the fence are down, and facing different directions, as well as the trees in
the field across Nelson Road. Note, that most tornadoes travel from SW to NE,
and if you draw a line of the damage path through my subdivision and across Nelson Road it takes the track that a tornado would. Tornadoes
are very common in the eastern side of a hurricane, and the official number of
tornadoes with the eyewall of Rita is not known at this time. There were likely
so many that occurred between Beaumont and Lake Charles, that the Weather Service can't possibly keep track.
The eastern eyewall passed directly over the cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur, and that is where some of the strongest winds occur.
The storm surge reached 6' along the shores of Lake Charles, and on the Calcasieu River in downtown Lake Charles. The Intracoastal
Waterway created storm surge
flooding all the way up to the Airport with 2' of water covering Gauthier Road
between Nelson Road and Big Lake Road. There was total devastation from the storm surge in
Cameron Parish in communities such as Holly Beach, Constance Beach, Cameron,
and Johnson Bayou. More information on the storm surge and wind speeds can be
found from the National Weather Service's Lake Charles site at
www.srh.noaa.gov/lch
SW Louisiana shows signs of recovery from our area's worst natural disaster
everyday, but it will take many years to rebuild Cameron Parish to what it once
was before Rita. Here, in Lake Charles, we still have a lot of work to do to
get back to what we were before the storm, but I know with the heart and
determination of the great people of SW Louisiana we will do so for Lake
Charles and all of our towns here in SW Louisiana. Rita is a storm none of us
will ever forget, and it has once again reassured me that meteorology is where
I belong. Everyone has told me what a good job I did forecasting Rita, and I
appreciate that, but this was one of the few times that I wanted to be wrong as
a meteorologist.
My hope is that everyone will always pay attention to the weather, and that
after enduring a storm as powerful as Rita, realize how important it is to know
what the weather will do. The 2005 hurricane season was one for the record
books with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma affecting the United States as major hurricanes, and no one in this state will
ever forget Katrina and Rita. Let's all hope and pray that SW Louisiana and everyone else affected by storms recently, can
have a speedy recovery, and that it will be a really long time before we ever
see a storm of that magnitude again.
*Again, this is the post as it was actually produced back in late 2005.
Now,
as we continue a look back at Rita, here is my forecast discussion and
information from the NWS Lake Charles and National Hurricane Center from
Thursday, September 22, and Friday, September 23, 2005 leading up to
the onslaught of Rita.
Thursday, September 22,
2005!
RITA A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS NW GULF
COAST...
*FORECAST TRACK AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD.*
*THREAT FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE IN SW LOUISIANA DRAMATICALLY
INCREASING THIS MORNING.*
*MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR CAMERON PARISH, AND CALCASIEU
PARISH SOUTH OF I-10.*
My advice to all of us is to leave the city of Lake
Charles as soon as possible. It
appears likely that we will see hurricane force winds in the Lake
area.
DO NOT PANIC! DO NOT PANIC!
Prepare your home and property for the possibility of sustained
hurricane force winds. Fill up your car with gas, and take as many valuables
with you as you can. Take extra cash, and make arrangements for your pets!
This is a life-threatening situation, and it is going to be a very
catastrophic storm in the areas along and just to the right of where the
eye makes landfall. This will be a storm that changes many people's lives
across SE Texas and SW
Louisiana.
If for some reason, you can't leave your home, please make sure
you have enough food and supplies for at least a week. Power
outages will occur, and may last for weeks.
Stay tuned to local media outlets and your local authorities!
Following is the latest advisory on Hurricane Rita from the National
Hurricane Center!
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
LATER TODAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO
FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO
GRANDE.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS AND ABOUT 491 MILES SSE OF LAKE CHARLES.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA
COASTS
IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3
TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
FROM THE
CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST
TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA ..INCLUDING THE NEW
ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER
RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS...
AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 88.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...170 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 AM CDT.
I will have more information a little this morning, due to time
constraints, I must end this one! I promise you that I will update as much as
I can as long as Rita is a threat, and as long as I have power.
Take care and pray for the best!
-Drew-
|
Thursday, September 22,
2005!
*CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA AIMED AT UPPER
TEXAS COAST
AND SW LOUISIANA
COAST.*
If you haven't left the area yet, I advise you to please do so as
soon as possible. This will be the absolute worst weather than any of us have
ever seen. This storm will be worse than the current benchmark storm for SW
Louisiana, Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
Ironically, Audrey was the last time SW
Louisiana received a direct hit from a major
hurricane.
Below, I will post the latest information from the National
Hurricane Center,
and then I will post the latest statements from the National Weather Service in
Lake Charles,
LA. I
will conclude the update with my discussion, and what I believe will happen
across the area.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS
TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD
TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS...AND
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO
FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO
GRANDE. THE WATCH IN MEXICO
MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND
WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE
CENTER
OF HURRICANE
RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS AND
ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER
TEXAS COASTS
LATE FRIDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA
COASTS
IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5
FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 AM CDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?3day?large
Now, here's the latest statement from the NWS
Lake
Charles office!
HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COASTS...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA
COASTLINE...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON
AND ORANGE
COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...ACADIA...
VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER
AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA
AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.
...WATCHES/WARNING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR
TEXAS
TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT
MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON...
RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT
MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE
EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3
WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT
ARTHUR TEXAS...OR
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME
UPPER TEXAS
COAST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT
FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY
THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES.
CAMERON AND CALCASIEU
PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH.
JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS.
VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL
MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.
ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR
OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES..
SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES.
ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY
FOR ALL OTHERS.
LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND
VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
IBERIA
PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14.
LAFAYETTE
PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE
WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY.
EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.
BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN
MOBILE HOMES.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES
TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES
AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU
PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS.
HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND ORANGE
COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
CAMERON AND CALCASIEU
PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL
FLOOD LAND
AROUND PECAN
ISLAND
AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.
IBERIA
AND ST. MARY
PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS
OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90
FROM FRANKLIN
TO MORGAN CITY.
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT:
SABINE PASS:
FRIDAY LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1
FT
SATURDAY HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT
LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT
CALCASIEU PASS:
FRIDAY LOW/1:33 PM/0.1
FT HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT
SATURDAY LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT
SOUTHWEST PASS:
FRIDAY LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1
FT LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT
BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10
FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU
RIVER...WHERE
CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED.
...WIND IMPACTS...
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND
THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL
EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST
GULF
AND INTO EAST TEXAS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA
AND VERMILION
BAYS
AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA
LOUISIANA
AND JASPER TEXAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE
LOUISIANA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH
WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS
WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU
PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND ORANGE
COUNTIES.
WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL
TEXAS.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME
WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE
DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES
WILL ALSO FAIL.
...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO
12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA
APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 200 AM
CDT.
Here's another statement from the NWS
Lake
Charles...
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY COAST.
THE LARGE HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL.
...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE
CHARLES
HAS ISSUED AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY.
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...
THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON
COUNTY COAST
AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE
AROUND 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 165 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE EXACT
LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST MAY
CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE
WITH THIS STRENGTH.
HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOF AND
WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...WITH THE WIND LIFTING
THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL
DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURES.
HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS ARE AT
GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.
ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS
WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND
UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE. CITRUS ORCHARDS
WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND
CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE.
LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.
OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-LEAST
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE AREAS CAN
EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.
...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...
...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT
SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS
BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED
ROOFS WILL FAIL.
PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO
THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW
RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN
HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE
DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.
...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL
LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS
ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF
NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.
Now, here's my discussion...
It can't be stressed enough, if you live in any of the areas that
have issued a mandatory evacuation, or a voluntary or recommended evacuation,
and you can leave, plase do so. This is a very very serious and deadly
situation. None of us have ever seen a storm of this magnitude here in SW
Louisiana. There will be widespread severe damage
here in the city of Lake Charles
from winds over 100 mph. We also have to worry about storm surge flooding here
in town, as the surge along and to the East of the center will be around 25
feet or greater. This will send the storm surge all the way up to I-10 and the
National Weather Service expects flooding from storm surge in Lake
Charles, Sulphur,
Beaumont,
and Orange.
There could be over 5 feet of water in downtown Lake
Charles.
This will be a similar situation to Hurricane Katrina 3 weeks ago on
the Mississippi
Gulf Coast.
As a general rule of thumb, the storm surge with Hurricane Audrey reached as
far inland as Lake Charles
Regional Airport.
This storm surge will literally wipe the towns along the coast off the map.
Numerous trees will be downed or uprooted across the entire area. Expect
widespread power outages across the entire area as well, for days and probably
weeks, maybe up to a month in some areas. Food and water supplies will be
greatly affected, and it will be very hard to find these essentials for quite
some time. There will be gasoline shortages, as well as long-term communication
disruptions across the area. This will by far be the worst natural disaster
ever to strike SW Louisiana.
It is very common in tropical systems to see tornadoes on the right
hand side of this storm. We will begin to see the threat for tornadoes Friday
afternoon, and this threat may continue through at least Monday across much of
the state. This storm will likely stall out somewhere in East or NE
Texas or Western
Louisiana. This will result in catastrophic
flooding in some areas, as the moisture is just pumped over our area. Rainfall
amounts as the hurricane makes landfall will likely be 10-15" across
Southern sections of the area, and 5-10" across northern portions. This is
just the rainfall totals as Rita approaches the coast, and moves inland. Some
locations may wind up with over 30" of rain. The flooding in itself will
have the potential to cause a prolific death toll as well. Many parts of the area
will be uninhabitable for weeks, so plan on staying wherever you have evacuated
to for at least a few weeks.
This is a storm that will affect everyone's life, and it will change
the landscape of SW Louisiana
forever. Tropical Storm force winds begin to affect SW
Louisiana from SE to NW on Friday morning. These
winds of 39-73 mph will begin being felt in the Acadiana area by sunrise
Friday, and in the Lake Charles
area by mid morning Friday, and by noon
in SE Texas. By Friday
evening, hurricane force winds will be approaching the coast. I think that
hurricane force winds will reach Lake
Charles around midnight Saturday or a
little sooner, and last til around noon
Saturday. On the current forecast track, I expect winds of category 3 strength
in Lake Charles,
around 120 mph. These winds will be much higher down along the coast at Cameron
where winds up to 150 mph are possible with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds
could be felt as far north as Alexandria.
Sustained tropical storm force winds may extend all the way into Southern
Arkansas. There will be power outages and tons of
downed trees as far inland as I-20, not to mention the damage the flooding
could do. Remember, the threat for tornadoes! These tornadoes will be
rain-wrapped, and will occur with little or no advanced warning. You likely
won't see the tornado at all, and will only hear it when it is right on
top of you. I expect the Storm
Prediction Center
to issue a tornado watch for the entire area by Friday afternoon. Like I said,
the tornado threat may continue into Monday. These systems tend to spin off
more tornadoes as they wind down.
That will do it for now, I will more updates during the day Friday.
I'm gonna try and get some sleep! I don't think I'll be getting any sleep for
the next couple days! Not many of us will! This is the proverbial calm before
the storm! At this point, I hope everyone has left the area, and made all the
preparations to their homes and property. All I can recommend at this point, is
prayer! There's nothing stronger than the power of prayer, and our fate lies in
the hands of God! Take care everyone, please leave the area, be safe, and God
bless all of us facing this catastrophic hurricane!
-Drew-
It wouldn't be a look back at Rita without some videos and pictures:
These pictures are a perfect
illustration of what storm surge can do and did. The surge is the most
devastating aspect of the storm along the coast.
Holly Beach, LA before and after Rita.
Another image of Holly Beach, LA after Rita
Now, courtesy of The National Weather Service here are some pictures from the extensive damage Rita caused in Lake Charles:
For a look at tons more pictures of damage around the area, log on to
the National Weather Service Lake Charles Hurricane Rita page: NWS Rita Page
To close out our look back at Rita: SW Louisiana's Storm here's links to some YouTube videos.
In closing, here's a bit more on Rita:
Rita was a historical storm in every sense of the word. At peak
intensity, Rita became the most intense storm ever recorded in the Gulf
of Mexico with top winds of 180 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. Rita set a
record for rapid intensification as the pressure dropped 70 mb. in 24
hours...from 967 mb. at 10p.m. on Tuesday September 20 to 897 mb. at
10p.m. on Wednesday September 21. This pressure reading also made Rita
the third most intense hurricane on record in the entire Atlantic Basin
at the time. Rita strengthened from a tropical storm to a category 5
hurricane in about 36 hours, and maintained category 5 strength for
about 18 hours.
Rita caused the largest evacuation of the Gulf coast in history at
the time. Most of SW Louisiana was uninhabitable for several weeks after
the storm with authorities officially keeping Calcasieu Parish closed
into the first full week of October. Cameron and Vermilion Parishes was
uninhabitable for much longer due to the widespread destruction from the
storm surge. Power and other essentials didn't return for much of the
area until early October. The flooding from the storm was a bigger issue
than freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall, because the summer of
2005 was very dry, and widespread drought conditions were in place
across the area when Rita hit. The entire area saw 8-12" of rainfall
with Rita, but this didn't lead to any additional flooding problems.
While no official count has been given on the number of tornadoes from
Rita across SW Louisiana, Rita was responsible for the largest number of
spin-off tornadoes from any tropical cyclone, and the largest September
tornado outbreak in history as well. The National Hurricane Center
reports that at least 90 tornadoes occurred as a result of Rita, and
this number is likely higher since the count is unknown across our area.
Rita is monumental in that nearly every structure across the area
experienced some sort of damage whether it was just a few shingles
missing off a roof or complete destruction, it affected all of us, and
for many of us our lives will never be the same. It is a crying shame
that Rita is so forgotten by so many. Those of us here will never
forget.
Hurricane Rita is certainly by far the worst natural disaster ever
experienced in our area, and will now be considered the benchmark storm
for the area surpassing Hurricane Audrey from 1957. The 2005 was
historical in many ways, and while there may have been 28 named storms,
as far as those of here in Louisiana are concerned there was really only
2. It is a wonderful blessing that there was very minimal loss of life
in our area from this most destructive storm. Some of this can certainly
be attributed to Katrina 3 and a half weeks earlier, and I believe had
Katrina not happened, many many people would have stayed home, and the
loss of life would have been far greater than it was. SW Louisiana is a
great place to live, and it is and always will be home. The hearts and
generosity of the people of SW Louisiana are bigger than anywhere else
in the world, and in our darkest moments neighbors helped neighbors, and
we all worked together to get our lives back in order. Just another
example of why I'm proud to live in SW Louisiana, and will always call
it home. I offer my prayers and thoughts to all of you who are still
recovering from Rita, and I hope that you will all join me in praying
for continued protection from these very serious storms in the future.
God bless all of you and God bless SW Louisiana and SE Texas!!!
Look for more on Hurricane Rita later on this weekend, for now enjoy the weekend & some football.
-DM-
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