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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Persistence is the pattern until further notice. We'll discuss further notice in a bit, but let's start with the forecast logistics for the next couple of days. We have been on auto pilot in the weather department since before we last spoke last week. A long-fetch Southerly flow continues to pump in rich tropical air. The main Jet Stream and current storm track remains locked up well to our North keeping all weather systems of significance away from the Bayou State. A large prevailing high pressure system resides over the SE U.S., and we find ourselves on the Western periphery of this anti-cyclonic flow. Hence, the onshore flow. As storm systems propagate from West to East across the country far to our North, the pressure gradient differential changes from day to day. The end result is gusty winds from time to time that are sending Gulf air into the core of the passing systems. The gusty winds and late night/early morning patchy fog and low clouds are about the only sensible weather to speak of around these parts at present. The period of above normal temperatures continues as well. It is another day of lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on this Tuesday. Skies were generally in the Partly Cloudy-Mostly Cloudy range. Weak high pressure also exists in the mid and upper levels, and this is also aiding in keeping us high and dry. The same players on the field tonight, and we will see another mild night with lows generally in the low to mid 60s. Some late night/early morning fog is possible, but I believe winds should stay up just enough for tonight to allow for atmospheric mixing to be a factor. Thus, dense fog is not expected. However, should winds die down more than expected then areas of dense fog will be prevalent. It looks more favorable for low clouds to be present.
Wednesday will be a day that features more of the same. Though, I suspect the winds won't be quite as strong with a system bypassing our area to the NE. Any fog will quickly dissipate as the March sun comes up over the horizon, and the low clouds will break up by mid-late morning. Skies will transition from Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy early to a general mix of sun and clouds yet again. High temperatures will reach or exceed 80 degrees yet again. It will be another dry day with the big upper level high holding firm while the surface high over Florida is shunted a bit further East. That same system will have its cold front trailing back into portions of North Texas. The weakening cold front will translate slowly SE losing more of its luster as it does so. Its effects will essentially be inconsequential on the forecast area. It should push into the area Wednesday night into Thursday. It will be a very weak boundary, and may just result in a brief wind shift by early Thursday morning. Mostly Cloudy skies are expected for Wednesday night, and the conditions may be primed for a dense fog episode with lighter surface winds ahead of the weak front. Mild temperatures will remain with lows in the lower 60s yet again. No rainfall is expected as the weak boundary limbers through the area, and some slightly drier and cooler air will infiltrate the forecast area for Thursday. The brief offshore flow will make it feel more invigorating on Thursday. The weak front will hover just offshore, so skies may not be completely sunny but the general mix of sun and clouds should continue. High temperatures will be a nudge cooler with mid to upper 70s instead of lower 80s. That'll be closer to seasonal for late March.
The weak frontal boundary will pull up stationary in the offshore waters Thursday night. The brief period of drier and somewhat cooler air will last into Friday before the deep tropical moisture comes right back as the front retreats as a warm front. Temperatures should be in the mid 50s for Friday morning with generally clear skies in place. It should be a fairly nice day for our Friday with plenty of sunshine at least early on. Clouds will return as the day progresses in response to the retreating front. The warm front will quickly usher in a return of the high humidity air and bring back the flow of deep tropical moisture over the area. The front will slowly lift Northward, so pinning down the exact timing that it will reach the I-10 corridor at this point is still out for debate. This evening's model runs show that most of the day Friday may be pleasant as far as humidity is concerned. High temperatures should generally be in the mid 70s or so. By Friday night, we're certainly back in the onshore flow with higher dew points and humidity nearly maxing out by sunrise Saturday. The prospects of fog will return to the forecast as well. Skis should generally be Partly Cloudy. Overnight lows will be back into the 60s with readings likely between 60 and 65 across the majority of the area. The weekend will start off on a dry note, but it will be unseasonably warm and humid. Saturday will feature the chance for early morning fog and/or low clouds. The fog burns off by mid-morning, and the low clouds will break up leaving us with a general mix of sun and clouds yet again. Afternoon highs should easily amass the 80 degree threshold...break out the shorts! Winds will increase once again as well with the main storm track remaining well to our North.
Some more substantial changes begin to take shape on Sunday. The overall weather won't change much yet, but the overall pattern across the contiguous 48 states will begin to shift. We will be marred in the deep Southerly flow for yet another day with gusty winds over 20 mph at times. A more potent Pacific storm system will be moving across the country, and this one is poised to take a more Southern track as the Jet Stream takes a dip in response to a sharpening trough in the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. Sunday should still be a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. There might be a few sprinkles or brief light showers later in the day with deeper moisture approaching, and a weakening of the upper level cap thanks to the approaching system pressing downward on the atmosphere. For now, a slight rain chance of 20% will be highlighted for Sunday, but this is certainly not big enough to go and change any outdoor plans you may have. Perhaps you might try out your kite flying skills this weekend. Some morning fog is possible once again with the deep flow of Gulf moisture in place. Morning lows will be on the mild side with readings only in the mid 60s or so. Sunday's highs may be a few degrees cooler given more cloud cover and stronger surface winds allowing more of a sea breeze influence. Expect these values to be in the upper 70s. Better rain chances enter the equation for Sunday night and especially for Monday.
We still need some rainfall across the area, and if the current model trends are correct this should occur late Sunday night through Monday as the previously mentioned Pacific storm system and attendant cold front moves into and through the region. Deeper moisture will pool over the area, and the upper level cap will continue to erode. Instability and dynamics will also come into play by first thing Monday morning. This could turn out to be our promising opportunity at some much needed rainfall since early this month. Showers and thunderstorms should initiate in the overnight hours in the pre-frontal environment. Scattered activity will be commonplace ahead of the front, then as the front draws near Monday morning I expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop and move through the forecast area. The early projected amounts of instability and dynamics suggest that some of the storms on Monday may be quite boisterous. A severe weather threat could very well materialize, but it is far too early to say this with any certainty. Just understand that we are at the end of March and this is prime time severe storm season around these parts. This system has the look of one which will be capable of producing severe weather with hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes across the area. Expect further fine tuning in the coming days. We certainly need and want the rain, but we can do without the severe weather, but often time this time of year, we get both. We'll see what happens. The mild conditions will prevail in advance of the front with morning lows in the mid 60s yet again. High temperatures will be somewhat cooler because of the clouds and expected rain with readings generally in the mid to upper 70s. Rainfall totals may be around 1" or so. Right now, the front should cross the area before noon on Monday. The chances for showers and storms will come to an end as the front slides on by. A strong onshore flow will be replaced by a strong offshore flow by Monday afternoon. Much cooler & drier air will filter into the region in the wake of the front. High pressure establishes itself across the Gulf Coast for Tuesday of next week. Sunny skies and a trend towards below normal temperatures is expected as this front may tap into some air from Canada. The end of the forecast period should be quite a contrast to where we are now with morning lows in the 40s and highs falling short of 70...more marvelous March weather. A period of nice and tranquil weather should continue just beyond this forecast period with the potential for storminess around the 1st of April. There are also signs of a late season cold snap in the first few days of April as well, so we'll see!
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:
LCH 65/81 61/80 54/77 0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT 64/82 62/81 55/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT 66/82 63/79 56/78 0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 60/83 55/77 48/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
POE 60/83 55/77 49/75 0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA 66/80 63/78 57/76 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight...Partly Cloudy, Warm, & Humid w/ Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 65. SSE wind 10-15 mph.
Wednesday...Early Morning Patchy Fog and/or Low Cloudiness otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 81. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.
Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with some fog overnight before dissipating in the pre-dawn hours. Turning Cooler late. Low 61. SSW wind 5-10 mph becoming NNW after midnight.
Thursday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy & Cooler. High 80. North wind 10 mph.
Thursday Night...Clear. Low 54. North wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Mostly Sunny early, becoming Partly Cloudy. High 77. NE wind 5-10 mph becoming SE around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday 3/23/11 Daily Planner
6a.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 8
9a.m.
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12
Noon
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 17
3p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 20
6p.m.
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15
9p.m.
Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 7
Drew's 7 Day Outlook
Wednesday
3-23-11
Low: 65
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Thursday
3-24-11
Low: 61
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10
Friday
3-25-11
Low: 54
High: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10
Saturday
3-26-11
High: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Sunday
3-27-11
Low: 65
High: 79
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
Monday
3-28-11
Low: 67
High: 77
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 20-25
Tuesday
3-28-11
Low: 46
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
...Marine Forecast...
Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog.
Wednesday Night...Southwest winds around 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Patchy fog in the evening.
Thursday...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
...Tide Data...
Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:
Low: 12:47p.m.
High: 7:57a.m. 5:03p.m.
...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
164.45'
...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Low: 66
Normal Low: 52
Record Low: 27-1915
High: 78
Normal High: 73
Record High: 90-1910
Rainfall
Today: 0.00"
Month to Date: 3.91"
Normal Month to Date: 2.54"
Year to Date: 10.57"
Normal Year to Date: 11.34"
Record: 1.50"- 1901
Significant Weather Observed:
Fog
One Year Ago (2010)
Low: 40
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
5 Years Ago (2006)
Low: 44
High: 62
Rain: 0.00"
10 Years Ago (2001)
Low: 43
High: 71
Rain: 0.00"
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:13a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:26p.m.
Hunting Times:
6:43a.m.-7:56p.m.
...Lunar Table...
Last Quarter- Saturday March 26
New Moon- Sunday April 3
First Quarter- Monday April 11
Full Moon- Monday April 18
Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM
