Spectacular Spring Sunshine...

Thursday, March 10, 2011

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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Open all the windows and doors! This has been a Marvelous March day with high pressure in control across the Deep South in the wake of the cold front which moved through early on Ash Wednesday. It was a day of wall to wall sunshine on this Thursday with very pleasant temperatures and low humidity values. Morning lows were generally in the mid 40s while afternoon highs approached 70. That's basically a normal day for the second week of March. Tonight will be a prime night of radiational cooling with light or calm winds and crystal clear skies. Super dry air will remain in place as a surface ridge will be virtually right over the forecast area. Dew point readings were in the 20s on Thursday afternoon, and as per usual these readings will increase somewhat overnight, but the temperature will plummet with the dry air in place. The readings near 70 this afternoon will give way to readings in the mid to upper 30s by sunrise Friday. That is on the chilly side for sure, and it will likely produce a late season frost for many locations especially North of I-10 with patchy frost even here in the Lake Area. A late season frost isn't all that unusual, and I've been expecting it anyway, so it's really right on schedule. You will want to grab a jacket or a coat for sure as you head out tomorrow morning, and you may also want to protect your tender vegetation from the potential for frost overnight. The coldest readings will occur near sunrise and only last an hour or two. The fantastic weather will prevail Friday with wall to wall sunshine in store yet again. The cold start will give way to another very comfortable afternoon with high temperatures similar to Thursday with readings topping out near 70. It is very common with these dry air masses in place in the Spring to have a very large diurnal range, and Friday will be no exception to that. The controlling high providing us this awesome weather will translate slowly Eastward across the Deep South during the day Friday, and the current offshore flow will slowly transition to a light onshore flow. Humidity values will remain very low for Friday.

Air mass modification begins Friday night as the onshore flow is established. Clear skies will remain in place, but humidity values will increase, and temperatures will follow suit. We will have no threat of a repeat frosty performance, but we introduce another "f" word to the forecast...fog! Some patchy fog development can't be ruled out in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. It shouldn't be a major issue, however, since relatively dry air will still be in place. Just the presence of a low-level onshore flow is all it takes this time of year for at least some ground fog. Temperatures will be some 8-12 degrees warmer for Saturday morning with readings back into the mid to upper 40s on average. The weekend will start off quite nicely with another very pleasant Springlike day in store for the second Saturday of March, a complete 180 from last Saturday. Some clouds enter the equation as the day progresses Saturday with an increase in low-level moisture noted, but overall it will still be a beautiful day. Afternoon highs will hold in the upper 60s to around 70 given the marine influen ce. It looks great for all outdoor activities. Perhaps, a better chance for fog will exist for Sunday morning with a deeper low-level onshore flow in place. Air mass modification will continue with the forecast area on the Western edge of a large high pressure system. Temperatures at sunrise Sunday will generally be in the lower 50s or so. Here's a friendly reminder before I continue, don't forget to change your clocks Saturday night into Sunday. It is time to spring forward, so we will lose that precious hour of sleep. That part sucks for sure! Just don't forget to change your clocks, I wouldn't want anyone to be late for church on Sunday. Back to the forecast now, the dry period will continue for Sunday with generally just Partly Cloudy skies in place. Temperatures will be seasonable with readings between 70 and 75. Clouds will increase throughout the day as our next system approaches from the W and NW, but this weekend should be totally dry!

The next system to have impacts on our region will come in the Sunday night-Monday time frame. However, there are many differences this time around when you compare this forthcoming system to its predecessors. There are model discrepancies with respect to the handling of said system, but either way it doesn't look nearly as potent as the previous ones. The pattern will continue to favor the passage of Pacific cold fronts with the coldest air remaining bottled up to well to our North. Deeper moisture will be entrenched across the area by Sunday night with plenty of clouds expected. As the cold front approaches, lift will increase and the chance for showers will enter the forecast. Mid and upper level ridging is indicated to remain in place by some models, therefore, a large chance of rain is not expected. Certainly, there will be a chance for scattered activity in the overnight hours of Sunday through the day on Monday. A much milder regime is expected with lows in the upper 50s. Mostly Cloudy skies with scattered showers will be the prevailing weather for Monday. The cold front will reach the area in a weakened state, and it will also be slowing down as it does so. Models disagree on the strength and timing of the front, and the amount of rainfall. The front will slide through the area Monday afternoon as an additional piece of Jet Stream energy (short wave) dives out of the Great Plains. This will help push the front into the coastal waters by Monday evening thus ending the small rain chances. No severe weather is expected, but I couldn't rule out some isolated thunderstorms if more instability is in place. Mild conditions will continue with highs generally range from 70-75 once again. The onshore flow switches back to an offshore flow behind the front late in the day.

The deeper moisture will be scoured out by the weak front. A renewed area of Pacific high pressure builds in on Tuesday. Beautiful weather will be in store, but temperatures won't really be much cooler at all. The main difference with this next front will be much drier air. Temperatures should be at seasonal at the coolest, but will likely be a few degrees above the norm for mid-March. The period of Tuesday through Thursday should be rather benign with the influences of high pressure along the Gulf Coastal Plain. Plenty of sunshine is expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. The surface high will slowly migrate Eastward by the end of the forecast period on Thursday, which happens to be St. Patrick's Day. The Luck o' the Irish should be with us this St. Patrick's Day. A return flow of Gulf air will return at that time, but the forecast should remain dry with the lack of any synoptic features to stir up the atmosphere. Temperatures will be in the 50s for lows and 70s for highs each day Tuesday through Thursday. Some cloud cover may return on Thursday in response to the return of the marine influence via the return flow. Overall, nice spring weather is expected for much of this forecast period with no major rain chances noted anytime soon. There are signs that a bigger system may impact our region just beyond this forecast period around the 18th or 19th, but that is still out in left field at this juncture. Long range indications are for above normal temperatures to develop in the latter half of this month with a typical dry pattern in place across the area. Spring is one of our dry seasons here in SW Louisiana. We're just over a week away from the official beginning of Spring, even though by meteorological standards we've been in Spring since the first of this month.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  37/69  46/70  53/73  0 0 0 0 0 10
LFT   37/68  44/69  51/73  0 0 0 0 0 10
BPT   38/70  47/70  55/74  0 0 0 0 0 10
AEX  34/66  40/70  46/72  0 0 0 0 0 10
POE  34/66  41/70  46/73  0 0 0 0 0 10
ARA  40/68  45/68  52/73  0 0 0 0 0 10


Tonight...Clear & Cold w/ Patchy Frost. Low 37. Light NE wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 69. East wind 5-10 mph.

Friday Night...Clear w/ Patchy Fog possible late. Warmer. Low 46. Light SE wind.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny. High 70. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog after midnight. Low 53. South wind 5-10 mph.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.



Friday 3/11/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cold w/ Some Patchy Frost

Temp: 37
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 51
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 6

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 3

9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 54
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 4


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
3-11-11

Low: 37
High: 69
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10


Saturday
3-12-11

Low: 46
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Sunday
3-13-11
Daylight Savings Time Begins...Spring Forward

Low: 53
High: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Monday
3-14-11

Low: 56
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15


Tuesday
3-15-11

Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Wednesday
3-16-11

Low: 52
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Thursday
3-17-11
St. Patrick's Day

Low: 57
High: 76
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.

Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.


...Tide Data...


Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:         12:37a.m.         11:434a.m.
High:           1:07a.m.            3:24p.m.               


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.634'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, March 10, 2011


Low:                43
Normal Low:   50
Record Low:   26-1996
High:               69
Normal High:   70
Record High:   89-1911

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 3.91"
Normal Month to Date:    1.10"
Year to Date:                 10.57"
Normal Year to Date:       9.90"
Record:                            2.50"- 1926


Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     64
High:     74
Rain:     0.02"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     49
High:     80
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    40
High:    64
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   6:28a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   6:18p.m.


Hunting Times:

5:58a.m.-6:48p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Saturday March 12

Full Moon- Saturday March 19

Last Quarter- Saturday March 26

New Moon- Sunday April 3


Have a great Friday! God Bless!
-DM

Ch-Ch-Changes...

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

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SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Anyone remember the tune "Changes" by David Bowie? Hence, the title of this entry! I like to intertwine my love of weather with my love of music from time to time, and today is another one of those times when it foots the bill. We will endure many ch-ch-changes over the next few days. This Wednesday has been a Marvelous March day with plenty of sunshine and low humidity. It was cool this morning with temperatures generally in the low to mid 40s. This afternoon, under Mostly Sunny skies readings reached above seasonal values yet again with mid 70s realized. A few high clouds streamed across the horizon from time to time to interrupt the otherwise pristine blue skies. The beginnings of the advertised changes are already taking shape tonight. Dew points have risen into the mid 50s as a return flow of Gulf moisture has commenced across the forecast area. The controlling surface high has shifted far enough Eastward to allow this to occur. This will have an impact on temperatures and sky conditions for tonight into Thursday. Some areas of patchy fog are possible by sunrise Thursday with the marine influence becoming more pronounced, however, fog should not be a major issue for the Thursday morning commute with still some semblance of dry air in place in the boundary layer. The onshore flow will create a milder beginning to Thursday as well. Expect temperatures to start the day around 50 or so, several degrees warmer than that of the last couple mornings.

A WAA regime is on tap for Thursday, and the presence of a low cloud (stratus) deck will exist for much of the day as moisture advects into the boundary layer. Surface moisture will continue to increase as well with a more pronounced onshore flow in the offing. All of this will occur ahead of our next storm system which is still developing downstream. We are in the midst of a very progressive Pacific pattern at this time. Some atmospheric mixing will help break up some of the clouds in the afternoon, thus a mix of sun and clouds is expected for the afternoon on Thursday. Patchy fog should burn off by mid-morning as the early March sun angle helps to dissipate the fog. It will be another mild day, with temperatures warming into the middle 70s yet again. No rain is expected Thursday, with limited moisture in the mid and upper levels and no present lifting mechanism in place. The warm air advection regime ramps up further Thursday night with the development of patchy drizzle and areas of dense fog overnight into Friday morning. A strong marine influence will be in place The increasing onshore flow may help preclude a widespread dense fog episode, but there will certainly be some areas of dense fog for the morning commute Friday. Rain chances will remain out of the forecast for one more period with no more than some patchy drizzle with the fog expected. Mild temperatures are expected with readings only falling into the lower 60s at best by sunrise Friday.

More significant changes occur on Friday as the next Pacific storm system comes out of the Rockies, and ejects into the Great Plains down to the Red River Valley. Deeper Gulf moisture will continue to flow over the region, and with moisture pooling and lifting slowly increasing through the day a few air mass or streamer showers are expected Friday afternoon. Winds will be on the increase as well with a significant pressure differential in place as the Pacific storm approaches, and the surface high remains located to our East. The shower activity that develops should be on a scattered basis, and the showers will be brief. Instability will still be absent, so only showers are expected for Friday afternoon. A warm day is expected with readings reaching at least the mid 70s, some upper 70s are possible if we get more breaks in the clouds. A general mix of clouds and sun is expected with more clouds than sun it would appear. The period of Friday night will offer a continuation of the warm air regime with more scattered showers expected. There could be some passing showers as the first floats of the weekend pass through the streets of Lake Charles, but the chance for showers should only have minor implications on the Mardi Gras weekend kickoff festivities. Mild weather is int the offing temperatures holding in the 60s. The onshore breezes will continue with Southerly winds in the 15-20 mph at times with the strong Springlike Pacific storm drawing closer to the region.

The Pacific storm, and its attendant cold front will kick through the area Saturday. Models continue to be very consistent with this idea. There are still some discrepancies between models concerning the timing and strength. However, at this point it appears to me that the front will most likely pass through the area between noon and 6p.m. Saturday. I will narrow it down further on Thursday since we'll be within about 48 hours of said frontal passage. The prospects of severe weather still exist as well. I am favoring a quicker moving front, and a very quick shot of severe storms with the formation of a squall line over East Texas. The squall line will move Eastward, and march through SW Louisiana and Acadiana in the afternoon hours Saturday. Some pre-frontal shower and thunderstorm activity is possible Saturday as instability and lifting increase. The favorable dynamics for severe weather will move over the area during this time. A surface low will form Friday over Texas, and it will emanate NE out ahead of the cold front into the Mid West Saturday. The Jet Stream will become active, and the forecast area will be in the favorable right front quadrant at least for a short time. Better dynamics may come together further to our East over SE Louisiana. Thus, the greater risk of severe weather may be to our North closer to the surface low, and to our East closer to the best dynamics. However, it is not safe to assume that we won't have at least some isolated severe storms in the area. Damaging wind appears to be the main threat at this juncture, but an isolated tornado or two and some large hail can't be totally ruled out. There will be plenty of cold air aloft for this system to work with. As the surface low kicks NE, the attendant will trail from the surface low back into Texas, and sweep SE through the forecast area. The potential for some heavy downpours will exist as well, but we need the rainfall so this will not be an issue with respect to flooding. Rainfall totals of around an inch or so are to be expected. This will certainly have some implications on the Mardi Gras festivities. The good news is that once the front does come through, the rain abruptly comes to an end with much drier and cooler air filtering into the region. This will not be a situation with much in the way of post-frontal rains. These spring systems typically bring in the drier and cooler air at all levels at the same time, and that looks like the case this time. Temperatures will be mild until frontal passage on Saturday with readings approaching 70 ahead of the front, before falling back into the lower 60s late in the day with CAA in place.

Skies clear out Saturday night as high pressure moves in behind the front. It will remain windy with Northerly winds up to 20 mph at times adding a noticeable nip to the air. Take that into consideration as you head out for any Mardi Gras festivities. Under clear skies, temperatures will fall to at or below normal levels for the first week of March. It will feel even chillier than the mid 40s with the wind and given that it'll have been in the 70s just a few hours earlier. The passing front will push well into the Gulf of Mexico, and with high pressure building in that will set the stage for an absolutely beautiful Sunday. Nothing but sunshine is expected Sunday, but it will be a bit cool by early March standards. It should be fantastic parade weather, however, with highs in the mid 60s and low humidity. Gusty winds in the morning will slacken during the day becoming light out of a Northerly direction as surface high pressure moves much closer to the area. Anything you have planned outdoors after church looks great. I bet there will be thousands of cries of "Throw Me Something, Mister" on Sunday. The cooler than normal pattern will continue for the Sunday night-Monday period as our extended weekend continues. Clear skies and light winds should set the stage for radiaitonal cooling Sunday night with low temperatures in the lower 40s. Some upper 30s will be possible in the coldest locations North of I-10, and I couldn't rule out some patchy frost up that way. Monday will be a nice day with plenty of sunshine in place. High temperatures will reach normal values in the upper 60s. A very progressive pattern will be in place, and a return flow may set up by late in the day Monday, if not before sunset, then certainly overnight.

That brings us to the all important Mardi Gras day itself! Forecast philosophy hasn't changed since the last forecast package. A mainly dry day is expected with a general mix of sun and clouds. It will be mild and breezy as well. Humidity will be on the increase with a pronounced onshore flow in place. We will be in transition from the nice weather of Sunday and Monday, and another vigorous Pacific storm system due to effect us mid-week. Temperatures for Mardi Gras morning will be much warmer with minimums close to the 50 degree mark, give or take a few degrees. That's about perfect for chasing some chickens. There could also be a hint of fog first thing Tuesday morning, but that shouldn't be much of an issue really. As the day progresses, the beads will increase and so will the clouds and humidity. High temperatures will reach the mid 70s as it stands right now. It will be comfortable for all the party-goers. Deeper moisture will translate Northward into the area by late in the day, and there might be enough lift in place, and enough erosion of the mid and upper level cap to produce a few air mass type showers late in the day, but I don't see much chance for rain of any consequence at this point. I will not mention any rain chance right now for Tuesday, but understand there could be some sprinkles. That being said, Mardi Gras 2011 should culminate without any weather worries other than the small 6-12 window on Saturday. The active regime remains in tact at the end of the forecast period with another vigorous storm hanging in the balance for Ash Wednesday. This system will parallel its predecessor in that a surface low will likely form, and translate NE through the day. The trailing cold front will slide SE into the forecast area. Moisture pooling ahead of said frontal boundary and increasing lift and instability will likely generate a decent shot of shower and thunderstorm activity. It is also within the realm of possibility that another severe weather set up will be in place across the area. It is too early to speculate with any specificity at this point, but with any system this time of year a severe weather threat is a possibility. Let us hone in on Saturday's system first, before we wax eloquently about the Ash Wednesday system and its possible ramifications on the forecast area. This mid-week system should clear out of here in the latter stages of next week providing another round of spectacular Spring weather into the following weekend.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  50/73  60/75  63/72  0 0 10 20 30 70
LFT   48/74  59/75  61/73  0 0 10 20 30 70
BPT   52/75  61/75  64/70  0 0 10 20 30 70
AEX  46/71  55/76  59/67  0 0 10 20 30 80
POE  47/71  56/76  60/67  0 0 10 20 30 80
ARA  49/72  60/75  62/71  0 0 10 20 30 70


Tonight...Mostly Clear w/ some Patchy Fog late. Low 50. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Patchy Fog early, otherwise Partly Cloudy. High 73. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with areas of dense fog and patchy drizzle after midnight. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday...Areas of Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers in the afternoon. High 75. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 63. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday...Cloudy & Windy with showers & thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall & some severe thunderstorms possible. Rainfall totals 1/2-1". High 72 with temperatures falling back to 62 late. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20 mph and gusty in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70%.


Thursday 3/3/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear w/ Patchy Fog

Temp: 50
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 3

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny

Temp: 60
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 7

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy

Temp: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 9



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
3-3-11

Low: 50
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Friday
3-4-11

Low: 60
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Saturday
3-5-11

Low: 63
High: 72
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25


Sunday
3-6-11

Low: 44
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Monday
3-7-11

Low: 42
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/E 5-10


Tuesday
3-8-11
Mardi Gras

Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-20


Wednesday
3-9-11
Ash Wednesday

Low: 61
High: 72
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.

Friday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.

Saturday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.


...Tide Data...


Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:          8:03a.m.          8:43p.m.
High:          1:01a.m.          3:22p.m.               


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.63'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, March 2, 2011


Low:                45
Normal Low:   48
Record Low:   24-1913
High:               76
Normal High:   68
Record High:   84-1905

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                 0.00"
Normal Month to Date:    0.22"
Year to Date:                   6.66"
Normal Year to Date:       9.02"
Record:                            2.54"- 2001


Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     40
High:     58
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     54
High:     77
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    56
High:    61
Rain:    2.54"


Sunrise Thursday:   6:37a.m.
Sunset Thursday:    6:13p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:07a.m.-6:43p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday March 4

First Quarter- Saturday March 12

Full Moon- Saturday March 19

Last Quarter- Saturday March 26


Have a great Thursday! God Bless!
-DM-

Marvelous March Weather for Mid-Week...Chance of Severe Storms Possible Saturday...

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Goldie Locks would be proud! Today featured weather that was "just right". It was an absolutely beautiful day across the forecast area with high pressure firmly in control across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Skies were crystal clear throughout the day with nothing but sunshine. It was nice and seasonably cool this morning with readings generally in the mid 40s as forecast. Afternoon highs were above seasonal norms with readings in the low to mid 70s, but with the extremely low humidity it felt fantastic. The controlling high pressure resulted in a light offshore flow at the surface as well. This continues tonight with clear skies and nearly calm winds in place. The stage is set for a night of maximum radiational cooling with lows in the low to mid 40s by sunrise Wednesday. This might be a little cool for some, but it is essentially normal for this time of year. No fear, if that's a little cool for you, we'll warm up quickly on Wednesday once again. Temperatures will climb back into the mid 70s with more wall to wall sunshine expected with the large area of Pacific high pressure remaining in place. A light offshore flow will prevail, but winds will shift to an Easterly direction during the day. Humidity values will remain on the low side as well. If you didn't get a chance to enjoy today, hopefully you'll have a few minutes at least to soak it up tomorrow.

The quiet and calm weather prevails for Wednesday night into Thursday, but air mass modification will be the story. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer in the upper 40s to around 50. Some patchy fog may form towards sunrise Thursday. A very light return flow will become established in the pre-dawn hours Thursday as the currently controlling Pacific high slides Eastward into the SE United States. Another fairly nice day is on tap for Thursday. Low-level moisture and humidity will be increasing, but a good deal of sunshine is expected. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 70s. A noticeable increase in humidity is expected by day's end. Clouds will make an appearance by Thursday night as significant low level moisture returns to the forecast area. Another in a continuing series of Pacific storm systems will be gathering strength downstream, and the outer effects of it will be experienced across the area as early as Thursday night. The onshore flow will intensify, and a round of fog is possible first thing Friday morning. The advancing storm system will generate a deep flow of Gulf air into the area. A few air mass showers can't be ruled out overnight Thursday into Friday as the deeper moisture pools over the area, but a mostly quiet weather pattern should exist.

Further changes continue as we round out the work week on Friday. The advancing storm system will continue to eject into the Great Plains. Surface cyclogenesis will originate as well over the Red River Valley of Texas as the advancing trough deepens. The attendant cold front will advect SE as well. Friday will be mostly a dry day as we await the main thrust of this storm system, but there will certainly be a chance for a few showers in the afternoon with deeper moisture in place. The fog will be the main issue to start the day. The fog should lift by mid-morning, and we'll be left with Partly to Mostly Cloudy and windy conditions throughout the day. Lift and instability will slowly increase during the day as the system draws closer. Rain chances remain in place for Friday night, but this should be on a hit or miss basis. Any showers will be brief on Friday and Friday night as everything streams inland quickly. Most of Friday night's Mardi Gras festivities should be just fine with mild conditions in place. Highs on Friday will reach the mid 70s yet again, and temperatures Friday night will only fall into the upper 50s. Look for readings in the 60s if you are out and about Friday evening. Better chances of showers & thunderstorms will exist for Saturday as the core of this latest Pacific system moves through.

Showers & thunderstorms will be in the likely category, an upgrade from yesterday. Models are more insistent on widespread activity ahead of the front. The surface low will travel NE from the Red River Valley into the Mid West Saturday. As the low translates NE, the cold front and dry line combination over Texas will translate Eastward. This set up will leave us in a favorable spot for the possibility of some severe thunderstorms. Certainly, showers & storms will be likely from late morning through mid-afternoon, but the chance of severe weather may be realized with damaging winds the main threat. This still remains to be seen. Rain will develop Saturday morning, and spread from W to E across the area as the day wears on. It is still a bit early to be real specific about the exact severe threat, but all indications continue to point towards at least some isolated severe storms. This certainly looks like our best opportunity at rainfall in a couple of weeks, and our best chance of severe weather so far this season. This will have significant implications on all the Mardi Gras festivities. I would make some alternate plans indoors just in case. There is an alternate scenario I see as a possibility, and that is, and one shot and done situation. This means that would be a quick storm right along the front, and then the rain ends in the afternoon. This system will have more energy and cold air to work with than its predecessors, so I do expect more significant impacts ahead of this system. The instability and strengthening Jet Stream will factor into the equation. Models still diverge on the intensity of the system, so we'll see how this plays out. Overall, other than an increase in the prospects for showers & storms my thinking hasn't changed from yesterday. Rainfall totals should be around an inch or less. Rain will taper off late in the day as the front works its way through the forecast area, and pushes into the coastal waters. A much cooler and drier air mass will be ushered in with the front. Temperatures in the pre-frontal environment will range from around 60 at sunrise to the mid 70s for highs ahead of the front. Temperatures will likely fall late in the day as CAA takes over. I would expect 50s by the evening hours with strong Northerly winds.

Conditions drastically improve Saturday night into Sunday. This will be a typical Spring cold front in that it clears out all the gunk, and eliminates nearly all available moisture. Skies will clear out overnight Saturday as Pacific high pressure builds in from the lee side of the Rockies in the wake of the front. Winds will be gusty in the post-frontal environment, and it will feel quite chilly for all Mardi Gras festivities Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s by Sunday morning with clear skies. CAA will remain in place into Sunday. Sunday will by far be the better day of the weekend, and all Mardi Gras events and activities Sunday will be just fine. It will be a bit chilly by early March standards with CAA remaining in place as the high continues to push towards our area. Abundant sunshine is on tap for Sunday, and under the early March sun high temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s. This air mass will mostly be of Pacific content, but it will mix with some colder Canadian air as the strong surface low ejects NE Saturday, so this will be the coolest air we've felt since around the middle of February. Winds will subside through the day as the strong high pressure nestles itself over the area. This latest stretch of nice weather will continue into Monday (Lundi Gras), which is good news for those who have a long weekend for Mardi Gras. It will be a seasonably cool and clear start to the day Monday with temperatures will down into the 40s once again.

Monday will be a very nice day with lots of sunshine expected across the area with high pressure in control. The high will push Eastward in the afternoon, and a subtle return flow will be established by the afternoon hours. Humidity values will remain on the low side, and temperatures will likely fall just short of seasonal values with readings in the mid to upper 60s for afternoon highs. Low level moisture begins to increase in earnest Monday night with the return of a stratus deck and the possibility of some patchy fog. It should remain dry, however, with much warmer readings for low temperatures. Expect overnight lows to be in the low to mid 50s. The continuing parade of Pacific storm systems will continue, and we'll have another one approaching the area as we head into the culmination of the 2011 Carnival season on Tuesday. Mardi Gras Day itself doesn't look too bad at this juncture, but it will be a day of transition it would appear. The day should feature a mix of sun and clouds, and plenty of humidity. It will also be windy as the pressure gradient tightens over the area in response to the very progressive pattern. High temperatures will reach the middle 70s, so short sleeves and shorts/jeans should make you quite comfortable while partaking in the festivities. The approaching Pacific storm will likely hold off until Ash Wednesday, but enough moisture may be present by the evening hours on Mardi Gras for a few scattered air mass showers. I will highlight a 20% chance for showers at this time for this reason, but I see no reason that there will be serious implications on the end of Mardi Gras 2011. The main thrust of the system will hold off until Ash Wednesday, and this will bring us another chance for showers and thunderstorms with the potential for another severe weather outbreak possible as well. It is far too early to be specific about that at this point, but model consistency says we will at least have a significant shot of rainfall around mid-week next week just in time for Lent. Let's focus on Saturday's weather maker for the time being!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  42/73  48/74  56/73  0 0 0 0 10 20
LFT   41/73  47/75  55/73  0 0 0 0 10 20
BPT   44/74  51/75  57/73  0 0 0 0 20 20 
AEX  39/71  44/74  50/75  0 0 0 0 10 20
POE  40/71  44/74  50/75  0 0 0 0 10 20
ARA  43/73  49/74  56/73  0 0 0 0 10 20


Tonight...Clear. Low 42. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 73. East wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 48. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 74. SE wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy & Warmer with Areas of Fog after midnight. A slight chance of showers towards morning. Low 56. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Areas of Fog until mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 20% chance of showers. High 73. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.



Wednesday 3/2/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cool

Temp: 42
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 3

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 6

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 7

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5

9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 56
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 4



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
3-2-11

Low: 42
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10


Thursday
3-3-11

Low: 48
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Friday
3-4-11

Low: 56
High: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Saturday
3-5-11

Low: 60
High: 75
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20


Sunday
3-6-11

Low: 44
High: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-20


Monday
3-7-11

Low: 41
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Tuesday
3-8-11

Low: 50
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog after midnight.

Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning. Patchy fog late in the morning. A slight chance of showers.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:          7:24a.m.          8:14p.m.
High:        12:08a.m.          3:12p.m.               


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.70'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, March 1, 2011


Low:                48
Normal Low:   47
Record Low:   26-1913
High:               76
Normal High:   68
Record High:   82-1918

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                0.00"
Normal Month to Date:   0.11"
Year to Date:                  6.66"
Normal Year to Date:     8.91"
Record:                          2.81"- 2002


Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     46
High:     53
Rain:     0.57"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     52
High:     75
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    53
High:    60
Rain:    0.02"


Sunrise Wednesday:   6:38a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:    6:12p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:08a.m.-6:42p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday March 4

First Quarter- Saturday March 12

Full Moon- Saturday March 19

Last Quarter- Saturday March 26


Have a great Wednesday! God Bless!
-DM-

Splendid & Spectacular Spring Weather This Week...

Monday, February 28, 2011

Look who's back in the saddle again! My apologies for the lack of blogs last week. I was under the weather, and was taking some time to get well & rest up. I am back now, so without further adieu let's roll! The blog is operating at full capacity.

Click below for the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Arguably, the finest stretch of weather so far this year is in store for the next few days. Our latest cold front passed through the area this morning bringing little in the way of eventful weather. Some brief and spotty showers occurred along and ahead of the front, but it was barely enough rain to wet the ground where it did rain. We continue to lag behind on rainfall for the year, and the ongoing drought continues. This front, unlike its predecessors, passed through and kept going. This front didn't stall just offshore, meaning the nice air mass that it ushered in will hang around for more than just a day. The front pushed into the coastal waters this morning, and a fresh Northerly breeze is ushering in a very pleasant Pacific air mass just in time for the month of March, which is often one of our most beautiful months. The air was not noticeable cooler at first in the wake of the front, but the air dried out almost instantaneously. Highs reached the lower 80s as dew points fell from near 70 ahead of the front, into the 40s and 50s this evening. CAA is in place tonight as Pacific high pressure builds in behind the exiting front. A fresh Northerly breeze and clear skies over the area tonight will allow for temperatures to cool off nicely. The morning lows in the mid 40s will not only resemble the seasonal values, but also be the coolest readings we've seen in at least a couple weeks. It will feel refreshing as you head out to start the day on Tuesday, but you might want a jacket or sweater if you get cool easy.

Perfect is about how to describe the anticipated weather for the Tuesday-Thursday period with only slight day to day variations in temperatures expected. Pacific high pressure will control the weather across the forecast area through Thursday providing with some marvelous March weather. March 2011 will come in like a lamb, opposite of what old weather folklore says. Temperatures will be seasonal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Look for a large diurnal range each day with the dry air and low humidity in place. Plenty of sunshine is expected, and afternoon highs Tuesday will reach the lower 70s. Tuesday night will be the coolest night of the week with temperatures dropping into the lower 40s, some upper 30s will be possible in the coldest locations by sunrise Wednesday. Winds will be nearly calm for this period as the Pacific high pressure positions itself over East Texas. Air mass modification will begin by Thursday as the controlling high slowly shifts Eastward bringing back a subtle return flow on Thursday. It will still be quite pleasant Thursday as the deeper low level moisture will be well offshore, and take a while to return. Humidity values will increase in response to the Southerly flow. Morning lows will be a few degrees warmer with readings generally in the mid to upper 40s while afternoon highs drop back a few degrees because of the return flow. High temperatures will once again climb into the low to mid 70s. Some clouds may show up on the horizon by the end of the day, but overall it will be another beautiful day.

Abundant changes are in store by Friday with the effects of our next Pacific storm system on the way. A noticeable increase in clouds and humidity will occur as the Southerly flow intensifies with the next system deepening out West. The associated pressure differential will create the gusty winds. Fog may be an issue for Friday morning with the return flow in place. I will re-assess this possibility in later forecasts. The pattern favors a continued parade of Pacific storm systems, and this next one will a bit stronger across our area. The current projections show this system diving SE, with the core (surface low) of the system passing closer to our area. Rain chances will return to the forecast late Friday as deeper moisture moves in ahead of the front. Boundary layer moisture will increase, and the cap in the mid and upper levels will slowly erode. Morning lows will be above seasonal norms in the low to mid 50s while afternoon highs climb into the mid 70s. Only a slight chance of showers is indicated for Friday at this time, as the main thrust of the system will still be downstream. Rain chances will increase further for the Friday night-Saturday period as the Pacific front draws near and eventually through the area. This should evolve quickly, as the pattern this time of year typically favors that. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent Friday night, and I can't guarantee that Mardi Gras weekend will start off on a dry note. By the same token, it doesn't look like a wash out either. Further fine tuning is expected in the coming days. Lift and instability increase Friday night in the pre-frontal environment. A surface low will develop ahead of the front over Texas, and that will enhance the moisture influx across the region, thus increasing our rain chances. Mild weather will remain in place Friday night with temperatures only falling to between 55 and 60 across the area.

Our best chance of rain this forecast period looks to come on Saturday. This will have implications on Mardi Gras festivities. Unlike the previous systems, this next front will likely produce a better opportunity for rain and thunderstorms, and the possibility of some severe weather. The aspect of severe weather is still uncertain at this point, but a glance at the synoptic set up by models favors this idea. Any cold front working its way across the country this time of year, can bring with it a chance of severe weather. Severe weather outbreaks have occurred in recent days to our North. We will have to see if this is our time. March is a prime month for severe weather in Louisiana. Models also suggest that it may rain most of the day Saturday, or we'll at least have a shot at seeing rain off and on during the day Saturday. Rainfall totals should be an inch or less. Much needed rainfall will occur, but not enough to alleviate the drought situation. The surface low will likely track from the Red River Valley of NE Texas into the Mid West during the day Saturday, and that will put us in a favorable spot for a continuation of warm Gulf air to be pumped in over the area. The Pacific front will wring out the moisture like a sponge. Plan on a wet day Saturday if you heading out to any Mardi Gras parades or other festivities. Temperatures will remain mild in the pre-frontal environment with highs reaching the mid 70s again. The front arrives late in the day, bringing an end to the rain and ushering in a cooler environment.

The weekend will definitely be a tale of two different weather days. Sunday looks absolutely beautiful with high pressure building in behind Saturday's front. CAA takes over Saturday night, and a return of below normal temperatures is expected. Skies clear out Saturday night as the front departs. Temperatures by sunrise Sunday will be in the mid 40s. A Northerly breeze will be present Sunday, and high temperatures will be below normal with readings only reaching the mid 60s. Any Mardi Gras festivities Sunday get the thumbs up. It might feel a touch cool with the fresh Northerly breezes in place, but overall it should be a Marvelous March day. An active weather pattern will remain in place. A nice start is expected for Lundi Gras on Monday. Plenty of sunshine is expected to start the day Monday with a cool start with readings generally in the low to mid 40s. The progressive pattern will allow for high pressure to push Eastward on Monday with Gulf air returning in the afternoon. Clouds will begin to increase as the day wears on with the increased humidity. It should remain dry, however, with highs reaching the upper 60s to around 70 or so. Just beyond this forecast period is the all important Mardi Gras Day itself...right now, it appears as though it may be a race against time with regards to the culmination of Carnival 2011. The next potent Pacific system will be hanging in the balance, gathering steam downstream. Certainly, cloud cover and humidity will be on the increase with a high pressure located over the SE U.S., and a developing low to our West. Rain chances may return for the afternoon and evening depending on how the system evolves. Either way, Mardi Gras 2011 looks mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It may be quite breezy as well with the system downstream. The main thrust of the system near the end of the forecast period may wait until Ash Wednesday with the potential for another severe weather outbreak across parts of the country.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  45/70  43/72  46/73  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   48/70  44/71  45/72  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   45/71  45/72  48/74  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  43/67  40/70  42/71  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  43/67  41/70  43/71  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  49/70  44/71  45/72  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear and Cooler. Low 46. North wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 43. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 72. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 46. Light East wind.

Thursday...Sunny. High 73. ESE wind 5-10 mph.


Tuesday 3/1/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Refreshing

Temp: 45
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 11

Noon

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 13

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 7

9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 55
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
3-1-11

Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


Wednesday
3-2-11

Low: 43
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Thursday
3-3-11

Low: 46
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10


Friday
3-4-11

Low: 51
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Saturday
3-5-11

Low: 58
High: 74
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-20


Sunday
3-6-11

Low: 48
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Monday
3-7-11

Low: 45
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 10-15



...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.



...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:          6:41a.m.          7:41p.m.
High:                      2:51a.m.               


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.66'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Monday, February 28, 2011


Low:                69
Normal Low:   47
Record Low:   26-1913
High:               81
Normal High:   68
Record High:   85-1932

Rainfall

Today:                             0.02"
Month to Date:                1.55"
Normal Month to Date:   3.28"
Year to Date:                  6.66"
Normal Year to Date:     8.80"
Record:                          1.44"- 1995


Significant Weather Observed:

Light Rain
Fog
Haze

One Year Ago (2010)

Low:     37
High:     65
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2006)

Low:     50
High:     74
Rain:    0.00"


10 Years Ago (2001)

Low:    55
High:    68
Rain:    0.02"


Sunrise Tuesday:   6:39a.m.
Sunset  Tuesday:   6:12p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:09a.m.-6:42p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday March 4

First Quarter- Saturday March 12

Full Moon- Saturday March 19

Last Quarter- Saturday March 26


Have a great Tuesday! God Bless!
-DM-