Hermine Makes Landfall in the Rio Grande Valley...

Monday, September 6, 2010

Tropical Weather Outlook...Hermine has lost any chance to continue to intensify now. Landfall has occurred in NE Mexico, and the center of circulation is approaching Brownsville, Texas as of this writing. The season's eighth named storm was a rather strong tropical storm, and will have a rather short life. It has only been a classified system for a little over 24 hours now. No change in the forecast philosophy, and this will be the last full length update on Hermine. I will continue to track it until the National Hurricane Center writes the final advisory on the cyclone, which should be sometime on Tuesday. The specifics for this update are below.

Tropical Storm Hermine

10p.m. CDT Monday, September 6, 2010

...Hermine Makes Landfall in NE Mexico...Currently near Brownsville, Texas...Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds Expected over Deep South Texas...

Latitude: 25.5 N

Longitude: 97.5 W

This is about 30 miles South of Brownsville, Texas and 120 miles North of La Pesca, Mexico.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. Weakening is expected now that Hermine has moved inland, and Hermine should become a Tropical Depression over the Texas Hill Country Tuesday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center.

Movement: NNW or 330 degrees @ 14 mph. This motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn towards the North is expected over the next 24 hours, and on this track Hermine will move further inland over the Rio Grande Valley tonight, and into the Texas Hill Country in Central Texas Tuesday night.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.26" or 991 mb.

Watches/Warnings...All Hurricane Watches have been discontinued, as well as a portion of the Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Bahia Algodones, Mexico to Port O'Connor, Texas. This portion of the Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued sometime Tuesday morning.

Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 4-8" are expected across NE Mexico and S Texas with isolated higher amounts in excess of 12" in the higher elevations of Northern Mexico. This will lead to life-threatening flash-floods and mudslides.

Wind...Tropical storm force winds are occurring in the warning area mostly near and to the NE of the center into Deep South Texas.

Storm surge...Storm surge levels will be in the 2-4' range along and to the North of where the center of Hermine makes landfall Tuesday.

Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes are possible across the Rio Grande Valley tonight and Tuesday, especially to the North (right) of the center of circulation. A Tornado Watch has been issued for South Texas until 5a.m. Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion 3...Hermine made landfall right on schedule, maybe even a bit sooner than expected. Nevertheless, Hermine is inland, and is slowly beginning to unravel. The forecast was and still is pretty straightforward with Hermine. The cyclone is being steered around the edge of a strong Gulf Coastal Plain anti-cyclone, and this will keep Hermine on a NNW track tonight into South Texas before a bend to the N and eventually occurs over the next couple of days. It seems that the official intensity at landfall will be set at 65-70 mph, a strong tropical storm. If Hermine had another 12-24 hours over water it likely would've achieved hurricane status. As Hermine moves into the United States, and spins down, its moisture will spread out and widespread rain will cover much of Southern Texas. The pool of moisture will extend into South Louisiana on Tuesday, and much of the area stands to see off and on rain, with some pockets of heavy rainfall at times with up to 2" of rain possible locally. Heavier amounts will occur over SE Texas. This area will be in closer proximity to the actual cyclone. The effects of Hermine will be minimal here aside from the off and on rain and the possibility of minor coastal flooding. Further South and West, a flash flooding event may be realized through mid-week as the heavy rains from Hermine drench the area. As the storm spins down, the ongoing gusty winds across the Rio Grande Valley will become a non-issue, but the heavy rain and flood threat will continue for the next few days. A tornado threat also exists overnight and on Tuesday across South Texas. The highest chance for rain across our area will come on Tuesday while a decent chance will extend into Wednesday before drier air takes over for the latter half of the week. Hermine has behaved as expected since its inception, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to do so now that it is inland. This is the last full length discussion in regards to Hermine. The usual graphics follow.

The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be issued at 1a.m. CDT Tuesday, followed by a complete advisory at 4a.m. CDT Tuesday.


Elsewhere in the tropics, the remnants of Gaston continue to march Westward toward the Caribbean. The former Gaston is situated near the Leeward Islands tonight. This system has shown signs of better organization at times, and it appears that conditions will become more conducive for development over the next few days, so this system could once again be classified as a tropical system sometime this week.

There is nothing else of consequence at this time. No additional tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.


Have a good night & a great Tuesday! God bless!
-DM-

High Rain Chances Thanks to Hermine Through Wednesday...

Monday, September 6, 2010

The blog will be in short form today because of the holiday and the coverage of Tropical Storm Hermine in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The nice weather over the weekend has faded off into the proverbial sunset now. The humidity is back with a vengeance. The cold front which provided one of the nicer starts to football season weather in recent memory lifted Northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and essentially dissolved this morning. At the same time, while we were the beneficiary of the nice reprieve early in the weekend, there was some tropical trouble brewing in the Gulf. An old tropical depression from the East Pacific crossed over Mexico, and the leftover circulation was spinning in the SW Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche), and that same time the previously mentioned cold front helped energize this area of disturbed weather, and allowed thunderstorms to persist in that general vicinity. Persistence is often the key when looking for tropical development, and the Bay of Campeche is a hotbed for development this time of year. Lo and behold, that's exactly what happened Sunday night. The formation of Tropical Depression 10 ensued rather quickly, and became Tropical Storm Hermine formed early this morning. It has steadily strengthened through the day, and is nearing its landfall point in NE Mexico tonight. While it will be the main influence on our weather for the next couple of days, we will not see the direct impacts locally.

The extreme outer fringes of Hermine began affecting the area today as the rain bands on the periphery of the large circulation moved inland off the Gulf. The combination of the retreating front, and being in the NE quadrant of the circulation of Hermine has resulted in a return of deep low-level moisture, and it feels all icky outside again. This Labor Day featured generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies with the off and on rain across the area. Rain was heavy at times, but amounts were generally less than an inch or so. We need the rain, so that's good news. We will remain on the edge of Hermine tonight, and rain chances remain in the forecast for the overnight hours. There is not much action ongoing, but re-development is expected over the offshore waters during the night as Hermine makes landfall. Expect the humid conditions to continue with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s areawide. That is a sharp contrast from the below normal readings we experienced over the weekend. An onshore flow will be maintained as well around the circulation from the cyclone.

Hermine will make landfall in the overnight hours, likely before midnight, in the Rio Grande Valley, and then continue moving Northward from the Rio Grande Valley into the Texas Hill Country by Tuesday afternoon. As Hermine moves inland and weakens, the moisture will spread out and spread Eastward in the deep tropical air mass being pumped into the area around the circulation. The forecast area will remain well entrenched in the onshore flow with the storm in Central Texas. Daytime heating will be thrown into the equation, and the end result will be a high likelihood of shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. The highest chances for rain will be over SE Texas closer to the actual circulation, and rain chances will temper downward the further East you go. Acadiana will still have rain chances in the likely category, but they will certainly be lower than those in SE Texas. Rain will be off and on throughout the day, but activity will be most numerous in the afternoon hours. Some heavy downpours will occur from time to time with the possibility of 1-2" of rain across the forecast area. All of this rain is very much needed across the area, so no issues with flooding are expected. There could be some minor coastal flooding problems on Tuesday due to the stiff SE wind causing higher than normal tides. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued accordingly. Other than that, not many effects from Hermine will occur. When it's not raining, skies will be Mostly Cloudy with a few Partly Cloudy intervals. High temperatures will hold in the upper 80s because of the enhanced cloud cover and rain chances. Expect similar weather for the Tuesday night period with rain chances backing off a bit, but a decent probability will still exist. Temperatures will cool off back into the mid to upper 70s with a continued onshore flow.

Rain chances will remain high for mid-week on Wednesday. The moisture from the remnants of Hermine will continue to produce off and on rain across the forecast area. Again, it will be a situation where rain chances are higher across the Western flank of the forecast area, and activity should be more scattered in nature over Acadiana. The actual remnant low will be somewhere into North Texas or South Oklahoma by this time. Moisture will linger over the area, but by late in the day drier air from the East will begin to push back into the area. Rain chances will be lower than that of Tuesday given the drier air punching back into the region as the transition begins. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected with temperatures warming up to around 90 or so. Again, rain will be most likely during the afternoon hours as the effects of daytime heating are thrown into the equation. The onshore flow will continue, but winds should decrease by then as Hermine will have become a post-tropical entity, and be far enough removed from the coastline to relax the pressure gradient. Thus, the threat for any coastal flooding should be non-existent by this point. An additional inch or so of rain is possible in areas where the heaviest rainfall occurs, but again it will take a lot of rain at this time to cause any flooding issues around here.

The high pressure that is steering Hermine to our SW is currently centered over the SE United States with SW Louisiana residing on the Western flank of this high. This will change a bit by the end of the week, and the Thursday-Monday period will be dominated by the persistent SE U.S. anti-cyclone. This will bring in drier air at all levels of the atmosphere, and dramatically reduce rain chances for the remainder of the period. Rain chances will remain in the forecast, but these should be at or below climo for mid-September. It will basically be the presence of an afternoon sea breeze that results in the aforementioned rain chances. A typical late summer period is in offing with hit or miss activity each day. There will be plenty of low-level moisture sticking around. Unfortunately, there is no cold front to come this time around. Partly Cloudy skies should rule the roost in the Thursday-Monday period with seasonable temperatures with morning lows in the mid 70s on average, while afternoon highs average the lower 90s. Heat indices will creep back up towards the century mark thanks to the beaucoup amounts of low-level moisture. No large scale weather systems are on the horizon once we get Hermine out of the way. AS we head towards mid-September, you gotta figure the first real cool front isn't too far away. We shall see!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  77/89  76/90  77/92  40 80 40 60 30 30
LFT   77/90  76/92  76/93  30 70 30 50 30 30
BPT   78/88  77/89  77/91  60 90 60 70 40 30
AEX  74/91  74/93  74/93  40 70 30 60 30 30
POE  75/91  75/93  74/93  40 80 30 60 30 30
ARA  78/89  77/90  77/92  50 70 30 50 30 30


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly after midnight. Low 77. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely. Rain heavy at times. High 89. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 76. SSE wind 10 mph.

Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms. Rain heavy at times. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Wednesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 77. SSE wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
9-7-10

Low: 77
High: 89
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 8- High


Wednesday
9-8-10

Low: 76
High: 90
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 9- High


Thursday
9-9-10

Low: 77
High: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High


Friday
9-10-10

Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
9-11-10
9 Year Anniversary of the Terror Attacks...Patriot Day!

Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
9-12-10

Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
9-13-10

Low: 75
High: 92
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Tropical Update...

Tropical Storm Hermine is at landfall over Extreme NE Mexico in the Rio Grande Valley. The cyclone will move Northerly into South Texas within the next 12 hours, and rains will overspread much of Texas with rainfall extending into Louisiana. Hermine is a strong tropical storm which would have made it to hurricane status if it had more time over water. Complete details on Hermine can be found in the post above this one in the latest tropical update.

Elsewhere, in the tropics...the remnant low from the former Tropical Storm Gaston is near the Northern Leeward Islands tonight. It continues to show some organization, but no re-development is imminent at this time. There is a chance it could become a tropical cyclone again in a day or two as it moves Westward into the Caribbean Sea.

All else is quiet at this time.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Southeast winds 20 knots and gusty. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Southeast winds 20 knots and gusty. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Good night, have a great Tuesday & be sure to view the tropical weather outlook above this post! God bless!
-DM-

Hermine Hastily Heading for Rio Grande Valley...

Monday, September 6, 2010

Tropical Weather Discussion...Good Labor Day afternoon! Hermine continues to behave as expected this afternoon. It is not far from the coastline now, and landfall should occur in the overnight hours. The Rio Grande Valley still appears to be the bullseye for this storm, and SW Louisiana will experience the fringe effects of said cyclone. All the latest information on Hermine follows.

Tropical Storm Hermine

4p.m. CDT Monday, September 6, 2010

...Hermine Holds Steady & is on Track for Landfall Overnight in the Rio Grande Valley...

Latitude: 24.5 N

Longitude: 97.0 W

This places the center of Hermine is about 70 miles NE of La Pesca, Mexico and 100 miles SSE of Brownsville, Texas.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall Tuesday morning, and Hermine could become a minimal hurricane before landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center.

Movement: NNW or 330 degrees @ 15 mph. This general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Hermine should approach the coast of the Western Gulf of Mexico across the Rio Grande Valley tonight, and move inland early Tuesday in NE Mexico or Deep South Texas. The circulation will continue to move North and spin down over Central Texas on Wednesday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.29" or 992 mb.

Watches/Warnings...There is no change in the earlier watches and warnings. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from La Cruz, Mexico Northward to Port O'Connor, Texas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Rio San Fernando, Mexico Northward to Baffin Bay, Texas.

Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 4-8" are expected across NE Mexico and S Texas with isolated higher amounts in excess of 12" in the higher elevations of Northern Mexico. This will lead to life-threatening flash-floods and mudslides.

Wind...Tropical storm force winds will reach the warning area later today.

Storm surge...Storm surge levels will be in the 2-4' range along and to the North of where the center of Hermine makes landfall Tuesday.

Tornadoes...Isolated tornadoes will be possible across the Rio Grande Valley late tonight and Tuesday, especially to the North (right) of the center of circulation.

Tropical Hermine Discussion 2...There is no change in the forecast philosophy. Hermine continues to be well-organized, and convection continues to explode near the center. It is a good thing that Hermine is nearing landfall because the environment in the Western Gulf of Mexico is one that is very favorable for further development. Hermine would likely become a hurricane it if would have more time over water, but the chances of it reaching minimal hurricane status before landfall in about 6-12 hours still exists. Certainly, Hermine will be a formidable tropical storm at landfall. The official track takes the center of circulation inland close to where Alex made landfall back in June. The SW Gulf of Mexico is a tropical hotbed during prime time, and it is no surprise that this system spun up so quickly. It formed from an old tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific, which crossed over into the SW Gulf of Mexico. This system was also energized by the old frontal boundary which pushed into the Gulf over the weekend. Hermine is being steered around the Western periphery of a large anti-cyclone over the Southeastern U.S. This anti-cyclone will work to steer the system away from SW Louisiana. The forecast is very straightforward. The only question is what will Hermine's intensity be when it strikes the coast later tonight or early Tuesday. A wobble to the left or to the right will help determine where exactly the center of Hermine will come ashore, but the general consensus is somewhere in the Rio Grande Valley. Earlier today, I believed that Hermine would achieve hurricane status, but now it seems as though it may fall just short, but either way it won't change the weather much across SW Louisiana.

Hermine is making steady headway towards the coast, and the swift movement may be the only mitigating factor in keeping Hermine from achieving hurricane status. The strong tropical storm will make its landfall tonight or early Tuesday, and then the steering currents around the stationary high pressure will bring Hermine on a track up through Central Texas, and then towards Dallas, and into Oklahoma through mid-week. Hermine will become an extra-tropical or post-tropical entity at that time. As the system spins down moisture will overspread the Western half of the Gulf Coast. The position of the cyclone will keep SW Louisiana in the moist, NE quadrant of the circulation, thus deep tropical moisture from the Gulf will continue to be transported into the region. This will push rain chances into the likely category through Wednesday. Tuesday will be the most likely day to receive rain across the area. Heavy rain will be possible at times with 1-2" of rain possible at any given location across the forecast area. Rain chances will be highest over SE Texas, and gradually taper down further East into Acadiana. However, rain chances will still be in the likely across the entire area through Wednesday. Rain will be off and on through mid-week, and won't necessarily be limited to the daytime hours in this situation. There are no changes to the watches and warnings issued by the National Hurricane Center earlier. While, rainfall is needed across these parts, and the actual rainfall that occurs from the outer edges of Hermine will be beneficial. No immediate problems are expected from Hermine locally other than the possibility of some minor coastal flooding between now and Tuesday night. No change to this forecast is anticipated. The graphics suite follows.

That's all for now. The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center is slated for 7p.m. CDT, followed by the next complete advisory at 10p.m. CDT. my next update on Hermine will follow the 10p.m. advisory. Look for the regular forecast package later on this evening as well.

Enjoy the rest of your Labor Day evening! God Bless!
-DM-

Tropical Storm Hermine Forms in the Gulf...Rain Chances Ramp Up This Week...

Monday, September 6, 2010

...Tropical Weather Discussion...

I hope everyone is having a great Labor Day weekend! I am cutting mine a bit short to tell you of our newest tropical entity. Tropical Storm Hermine formed in the SW Gulf of Mexico this morning, after a persistent area of low pressure over the weekend closed off into a tropical depression last night. Hermine formed from an old tropical depression in the Eastern Pacific, and it conglomerated with the old frontal boundary which came through late last week. Hermine will not be a major or direct threat across SW Louisiana, but it will be close enough to enhance our rain chances for the first half of the week. The direct impacts will be felt further South of our area into South Texas and North Mexico in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. I will keep you updated through the day on all the latest on Hermine, and the typical format this blog follows for a tropical system is in effect now until further notice. A regular forecast discussion will also be posted tonight. For the most up to date information on Hermine, see the following text.


Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion...The season's eighth named storm has formed in a typical hotbed for tropical development this time of year. Hermine was upgraded from T.D. 10 earlier this morning while churning over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Hermine is in a very favorable environment, as judging by the quick intensification from an open wave on Sunday afternoon, to a Tropical Depression Sunday night, to Tropical Storm status this morning. There is no reason to believe that Hermine won't continue to strengthen until landfall on Tuesday morning. Hermine is in a low-shear environment and an area of very supportive SSTs. There is not much room for Hermine to continue to strengthen. It is close proximity to land. The forecast for Hermine is pretty straightforward as well. The cyclone is being steered around the Western flank of a strong ridge of high pressure which built in behind the recent cold front. This frontal boundary has basically lifted Northward, and dissolved along the Gulf coast. Hermine is moving between N and NW around the periphery of the aforementioned anti-cyclone. This will keep Hermine's direct impact safely away from SW Louisiana. Landfall will occur within the next 24 hours somewhere along the Western Gulf of Mexico coast. Slight wavering in the motion will dictate if Hermine makes landfall in Mexico or in Deep South Texas. The Rio Grande Valley seems to be the bullseye for the direct impacts of Hermine. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches are in effect for portions of Mexico and Texas.

Given the very supportive environs for Hermine, steady state strengthening is anticipated until landfall Tuesday. The current winds of 50 mph could certainly be stronger than that based on satellite representation, and we will know more this afternoon once a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft arrives on the scene. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Hermine could ramp up to a minimal hurricane before it makes landfall in the RVG Tuesday. However, no deviation of the forecast track is anticipated given the strength of the high that resides over the Gulf Coastal Plain. There will be impacts across SW Louisiana, but again the direct impacts will not be experienced around here. Impacts to SW Louisiana will come in the form of plenty of low-level moisture and humidity. The orientation of the actual center of circulation will place SW Louisiana on the moist, NE quadrant, therefore rain chances will shoot up into the likely category for today and tomorrow and likely stretch into Wednesday as the storm spins down over Central Texas. This will keep a deep, plume of tropical moisture surging Northward out of the Gulf. Rain will be heavy at times, and the possibility of several inches of rain will exist through Wednesday across the threshold of the forecast area. However, rain chances will be a bit less the further East you go, and higher in SE Texas. Given the drought conditions across the area, this rainfall will be beneficial to the region. No flooding problems are expected. Coastal locations will see an increase in tides, but unless Hermine becomes stronger than expected not much in the way of coastal flooding is expected. Tropical breezes in the 15-20 mph range will be quite common through Tuesday. The outer rains from this system will begin to impact the region this afternoon, and continue off and on through Wednesday.


...Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory...

10a.m. CDT Monday, September 6, 2010

...Hermine, the Eighth Named Storm of the 2010 Season, Strengthens & is Bound for the Rio Grande Valley...

Latitude: 23.4 N

Longitude: 95.8 W

This places the center of Hermine about 130 miles ESE of La Pesca, Mexico & 210 miles SSE of Brownsville, Texas.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph w/ higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected until landfall on Tuesday, and Hermine could become a minimal hurricane before landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 105 miles from the center.

Movement: NNW or 340 degrees @ 13 mph. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and this will take the center of circulation inland somewhere across the Rio Grande Valley of Northeastern Mexico or Deep South Texas Tuesday morning.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.47" or 998 mb.

Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from La Pesca, Mexico Northward to Port O'Connor, Texas. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Rio San Fernando, Mexico Northward to Baffin Bay, Texas.

Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 4-8" are expected across NE Mexico and S Texas with isolated higher amounts in excess of 12" in the higher elevations of Northern Mexico. This will lead to life-threatening flash-floods and mudslides.

Wind...Tropical storm force winds will reach the warning area later today.

Storm surge...Storm surge levels will be in the 2-4' range along and to the North of where the center of Hermine makes landfall Tuesday.

The next update from the National Hurricane Center comes at 1p.m. CDT, followed by the next complete advisory at 4p.m. CDT. My next update will come shortly after the 4p.m. advisory, unless anything significant changes before that time. Look for the official forecast discussion and package tonight as well.

Enjoy your Labor Day & God bless!
-DM-

Dry Start to September...A Fall Teaser This Weekend...Earl Bearing Down on East Coast...

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...September 2010 started off on a benign note across the forecast area. A typical late summer day or first day of meteorological autumn was experienced. Skies were generally Partly Cloudy with some Mostly Cloudy intervals. There was still plenty of moisture in place at the lower levels of the atmosphere, but some drier air worked into the mid and upper levels in response to a ridge off to our NE. A few afternoon storms developed, and were scattered at random across the landscape of the forecast area. Temperatures were very near seasonable values with readings starting out in the mid 70s, while afternoon highs reached the lower 90s. Afternoon heat indices topped out near 100. Mostly Clear skies with no mention of rain is on the slate for the overnight hours into Thursday morning. Expect Thursday morning minimums to range from the lower to middle 70s across the forecast area with a very light and subtle onshore flow in place. This weather pattern is much quieter than it was across the forecast area two years ago today. That's when Hurricane Gustav moved ashore in SE Louisiana near Houma and paralleled the Hwy. 90 corridor to near Lafayette. The storm sliced through the forecast area as it weakened. Most of SW Louisiana experienced at least tropical storm conditions.

The latter half of this work week will be rather benign as well. High pressure will continue to build in aloft, and at the surface. A mostly dry forecast will be maintained with generally Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy skies in place for Thursday. A few showers and storms will be scattered at random during the afternoon hours with the moisture in the low levels in place, and the favorable set up for another sea breeze type feature. Seasonable temperatures will be expected once again with highs in the lower 90s easily sustainable. The next synoptic feature comes into play on Friday. It is in the form of a deepening trough currently situated from the Red River Valley through the Mid West and up into the Great Lakes. This feature has a cold front associated with it. The upper level pattern across the country will favor a continued SE progression of said cold front, and there is enough upper level support to help pull this cold front through the entire forecast area. A few showers and storms will be possible out ahead of this boundary on Friday, but with the high pressure in place aloft the atmosphere will remain largely capped. A small chance of rain is indicated for this period for the reasons cited above. Temperatures on Friday will be nearly a carbon copy of Thursday with lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s. The cold front should push through the area during the day entering the Northern sections in the morning, and pushing offshore by Friday night. The atmosphere will dry out significantly beginning Friday night in the wake of the front. Go Bucs! Clear skies, a refreshing Northerly breeze, and somewhat cooler temperatures can be expected to lead us into Labor Day weekend. It won't feel too bad for the first Friday night of football this season considering its early September.

The forecast for the entire Labor Day weekend looks mighty nice. maybe verging on spectacular for early September standards in our part of the world. High pressure will build in in the wake of the front, and the atmosphere will continue to dry out at all levels. Humidity values will drop to below normal for early September, so no complaints there. Temperatures will be quite comfortable as well for the Saturday-Monday period. The drier and cooler air will be most noticeable first thing in the morning with morning lows dropping into the 60s for most locations. Readings as cool as the lower 60s will be possible by Sunday morning over the coolest locations across SW Louisiana. Here, in the immediate Lake Charles area expect minimums in the upper 60s on Saturday morning, mid 60s on Sunday morning, and upper 60s again on Monday morning. Afternoon highs each day will top out near 90, which is normal, and is still hot. However, with the dew points dropping into the 50s during the day, humidity values will be quite low and the heat index will be out of the equation. Hardly any clouds will be found for the entire Labor Day weekend. A little bit more moisture will hover near the coast which will closer to the frontal boundary, and that might conjure up an isolated storm or two on Saturday, but eventually the drier air will win out down there as well. Get out there and enjoy the holiday weekend. It will feel pleasant out at all of the football games as well. Go Cowboys & Tigers!

The end of the forecast period will offer up a transition back into a standard late summer pattern. Humidity values will increase again by Tuesday as a return flow is established across the area. The persistent Bermuda High will re-established itself over the SE United States early next week, and this will help the return flow kick in. This pattern will favor the development of an afternoon shower, and as such a chance for some scattered activity in the afternoon hours due to the effects of daytime heating. While the rain chances return to the forecast, the chances won't be any higher than average due to the continuation of drier air in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures will return to near normal for both highs and lows with morning lows reaching back into the low to mid 70s, while afternoon highs reach near the normal of lower 90s. The return of the humidity will make it feel more like late summer once again as heat indices near the century mark. This overall forecast pattern will continue to be dry with no significant opportunities for much needed rainfall anytime soon. Long range projections suggest an extended period of dry weather, this does not bode well for the ongoing drought conditions. We will continue to monitor the tropics this month as well. Earl is aimed at the East Coast this week, and is no threat to us. Fiona is no threat to land, and Gaston formed today. More on these systems in the tropical section below.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  75/93  76/94  69/91  10 20 10 20 0 0
LFT   75/92  76/94  68/92  10 20 10 20 0 0
BPT   76/93  76/95  70/92  10 20 10 20 0 0
AEX  73/95  73/96  66/91  10 20 10 20 0 0
POE  73/95  73/96  66/91  10 20 10 20 0 0
ARA  77/92  76/93  71/91  10 20 10 20 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SSE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SSE wind.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear and Cooler. Low 69. NNW wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny. High 91. NNW wind 10-15 mph.



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
9-2-10

Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


Friday
9-3-10

Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
9-4-10

Low: 69
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
9-4-10

Low: 66
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10
H.I.: 87-92
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
9-5-10
Labor Day

Low: 68
High: 92
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
9-7-10

Low: 71
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


Wednesday
9-8-10

Low: 73
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Tropical Update...


The tropics continue to heat up. The pattern favors what could turn out to be a September to remember in the tropics. Earl continues to be the main weather story as the calendar turns to September. Fiona is the least interesting of the tropical entities at this time, and should not be threat to land except for Bermuda as a weak storm in a few days. We have a new storm today as well with the emergence of Gaston in the Far Eastern Atlantic, and yet another wave is just emerging off the West Coast of Africa, and will certainly have a decent chance to develop over the next few days. The parade of storms typifies that it is indeed prime time hurricane season, and that all signs point to a very active Cape Verde season here in 2010. The slow start to the tropics is a fast, fading memory now as we've had the 4th storm in the last 11 days form in the Atlantic. Earl will continue to garner much of the attention for now, but by next week most of the focus will likely be on Gaston. Let's take a look at each system one by one.

East Coast Earl...Earl remains a very impressive looking hurricane on satellite imagery tonight. Earl has a very large, concentric eye. Earl has not began to feel the effects of wind shear over the Western Atlantic just yet. The environment over Earl is one that should allow the cyclone to maintain its current category 4 intensity tonight. There really isn't much change in the forecast philosophy from the previous forecast I laid out for you last night. Earl continues to be steered around the base of a large Atlantic anti-cyclone. A strong trough for early September will be approaching the Eastern U.S. over the next couple of days, and this will ultimately help dictate where the future track of Earl will be. Hurricane hunter aircraft have been flying through Earl tonight, and have found that Earl is strengthening as per a significant drop in barometric pressure would suggest. Earl is now at its peak intensity so far, and I suppose that the conditions are favorable enough to support some additional strengthening through the night. However, Earl is running out of time to mature much more, and it should be near its peak intensity at this juncture. Earl is currently a very dangerous category 4 storm. While the confidence in the overall track of Earl is high, it is still highly uncertain how much of the area from the Mid-Atlantic States to New England will be directly affected by Earl.

The aforementioned synoptic features will steer Earl, and Earl will begin to turn more Northerly sometime Thursday. It will be a very close call for the Outer Banks of North Carolina as far as a direct hit from the eye of Earl is concerned. Earl will begin to weaken as he moves further North as well given some wind shear developing out ahead of the approaching trough, and some cooler SSTs over North of the 30th parallel. Earl is forecast to begin the weakening trend, and will also accelerate its forward speed. Earl will likely still be major hurricane when its in the vicinity of the Outer Banks Thursday night. Again, it remains to be seen whether or not the Outer Banks Region will sustain a direct hit, but Earl will certainly be close enough to create some wind and rain over Coastal Carolina, and tropical storm force winds should certainly be realized. A large portion of the U.S. East Coast is under some sort of Hurricane or Tropical Storm Advisory given the uncertainty of the official track. Earl will continue accelerating to the N and NE beyond Thursday night as the trough magnifies over the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Earl will move parallel to the coastline, and give a glancing blow to Long Island and Cape Cod Friday into Friday night. It is also possible that these areas could sustain a direct hit from the eye of Earl, but it appears a bit less likely that far North. Certainly, still, tropical storm conditions could be realized well into New England and the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend. Earl will complete a transition to an extratropical cyclone over the weekend as he merges with the approaching trough somewhere in the vicinity of Hudson Bay. Everyone along the Eastern Seaboard from North Carolina into Canada needs to pay close attention and take the proper precautions. Evacuations are ongoing along the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. Earl will be out of the picture as we get into the Labor Day Holiday weekend, but many along the East Coast will likely spend it cleaning up from the storm.


Hurricane Earl Advisory

10p.m. CDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010

...Earl at its Strongest Intensity Yet...Poised to Threaten the Mid-Atlantic and New England Late Thursday through Late Friday...

Latitude: 27.8 N

Longitude: 73.8 W

This places the large eye of Hurricane Earl about 520 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 140 mph w/ higher gusts- category 4. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible overnight and on Thursday, but gradual weakening is expected to commence sometime on Thursday. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 90 miles from the center, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 230 miles from the center.

Movement: NNW or 330 degrees @ 18 mph. This motion is expected to continue tonight with a turn towards the North expected on Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Earl will pass very near or over the Outer Banks of North Carolina Thursday night. The eye of Earl should pass near or just offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula on Friday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 27.52" or 932 mb.

Watches/Warnings...A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border including Pamlico and Ambermarle Sound.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the NC/VA border to Cape Henlopen, DE and from Woods Hole, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cape Fear, NC to Bogue Inlet, NC and from the NC/VA border Northward to Sandy Hook, NJ including Delaware Bay South of Slaughter Beach and Chesapeake Bay South of New Point Comfort.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Sandy Hook, NJ to Woods Hole, MA including Block Island and Long Island Sound, and from Sagamore Beach to the Mouth of the Merrimack River, MA.

Interests in New England and SE Canada should continue to closely monitor the progress of Earl.

Wind...Tropical Storm force winds should reach the coast of North Carolina Thursday afternoon with hurricane force winds reaching that area Thursday night. Tropical storm force winds will likely spread up the coast from Virginia to New Jersey late Thursday through early Friday.

Storm Surge...Dangerous storm surge flooding will occur as water levels rise by as much as 3-5' within the hurricane warning area and Lower Chesapeake Bay. Elsewhere, water rises by as much as 1-3' will be possible in the tropical storm warning area.

Rainfall...Rainfall amounts of 2-4" with isolated amounts of over 6" will be possible over Eastern portions of North Carolina including the Outer Banks. Rainfall amounts of 1-2" are expected further North along the coast up into New England.

Surf...Large swells will continue to affect the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast through Thursday. These swells will lead to dangerous rip currents and surf conditions.

Fiona...Feeble Fiona actually fought through the wind shear on Wednesday, and strengthened into a strong tropical storm. However, the environment out ahead of Fiona is not very conducive for continued strengthening at all. Little change in strength has occurred tonight after the burst of intensification on Wednesday. Strong upper level winds out ahead of Fiona are forecast by each of our global forecast models. The wind shear will be created by the steering pattern leftover in the wake of Earl. Fiona has been following very closely behind Earl, and as long as she does she will struggle to survive. Fiona close proximity to Earl, and the wind flow around the edge of the Atlantic ridge will lead to the highly sheared environment. I don't believe we will have to discuss Fiona much longer. Fiona is no threat to land save for Bermuda, but even still it will be a minimal storm at best, so the tiny island should receive no more than occasional squalls and some gusty winds. It appears that the center of Fiona (if there's anything left at that time) will pass just West of Bermuda over the weekend. Given the hostile environs that await Fiona, this tropical cyclone should disintegrate into an open tropical wave over the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory

10p.m. Wednesday, September 1, 2010

...Fiona Strengthens a Bit Temporarily...Degeneration Expected Over the Weekend...

Latitude: 21.8 N

Longitude: 64.1 W

This places the center of Fiona about 270 miles from San Juan, PR.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph w/ higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast through Friday. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward to 140 miles from the center.

Movement: NW or 320 degrees @ 23 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with a decrease n forward speed expected through Friday. A turn to the North is expected Thursday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.53" or 1000 mb.

Now, there's Gaston...Gaston developed quickly from another wave that emerged off the West Coast of Africa. The formed Invest 98L is a long way out there in the Atlantic, and there is ample amount of time to watch this one. Gaston is further South than its predecessors, and it will be steered around the Southern flank of an Eastern Atlantic/Western Sahara High through between the Cape Verde Islands and the Leeward Islands through this forecast period. Models indicate steady state strengthening with Gaston, and this seems reasonable given the very conducive environment ahead of Gaston. Gaston will continue to strengthen, and likely become a hurricane sometime over the Labor Day weekend. It is conceivable that Gaston will become the season's third major hurricane down the road. The season's seventh named system will move nearly due Westward between 10-15 mph for the next few days.

Models indicate that Gaston may slow down as the steering currents weaken over the weekend. It is far too early to get a firm grip on where Gaston will be going, but there are certainly a couple of scenarios laid out by the models. Each one seems feasible at this time given the synoptic set up over the open waters of the Atlantic. Gaston could threaten the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean next week, and then possibly continue further W or WNW and threaten the Gulf down the road. Gaston could feel a weakness in the ridge to its North, and begin to be pull Northward and eventually re-curve out to sea as it feels the influence of a trough next week. We should know a lot more about the future track of Gaston as he approaches the Caribbean next week. Earl is the main focus for now, but as Labor Day approaches, Gaston, will likely become the weather headline. This storm is a long way away from any portion of the continental United States. Don't worry about it at all this Labor Day weekend.

Tropical Storm Gaston Advisory

10p.m. CDT Wednesday, September 1, 2010

...Ghastly Gaston Growing in the Eastern Atlantic...

Latitude: 13.4 N

Longitude: 37.7 W

This is 935 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands and 1,585 miles E of the Lesser Antilles.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Strengthening is expected through Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend out to 70 miles mainly to the NW of the center.

Movement: W or 280 degrees @ 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through Friday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.68" or 1005 mb.

Are you keeping up with me, here? A new tropical wave has emerged off the West Coast of Africa in the seemingly endless parade of tropical systems. The system is currently over the Cape Verde Islands at present. The system is not currently on the board with models just yet, but it should be within a day or two. Slow strengthening is expected through Friday, and this system sure seems poised to become our next tropical entity within a few days. The next name on the list is Hermine.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Friday.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.


Have a Great Thursday & God bless!
-DM-

Standard Summer Scenario to Start September...Earl to Threaten the East Coast...

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The end of August marks the end of meteorological summer, but of course, the official end to summer is still a few weeks away. However, here in SW Louisiana we could have typical summer weather into October, it just kind of varies from year to year. No telling what's in store for this year, but I can tell you that our typical summer pattern will carry over into the month of September. Today was very much a standard summer day with Partly Cloudy skies and some scattered afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity. After a bout of early morning low clouds and patchy fog, the hot August sun came out and did its magic. Temperatures began in the mid 70s, and topped out in the lower 90s this afternoon. This cites another example of how close to normal it was. Heat indices were near the 100 degree mark with plenty of low level moisture in place. Shower and thunderstorm activity occurred, but to a lesser extent than the previous days because some drier air filtered into the mid and upper levels as a ridge to our NE begins to retrograde towards the forecast area. Any shower and storm activity from earlier today will completely fizzle out within an hour or two after sunset, and a state of quietide is in store for the overnight hours with just Partly Cloudy skies and lots of humidity. Overnight minimums as the page of the calendar turns to September will be in the middle 70s yet again. Here's a brief aside...On this date, August 31, 10 years ago back in 2000, the all-time record high temperature was set at Lake Charles. The mercury that incredibly hot Thursday afternoon soared to an amazing 107 degrees. This was during one of the worst heat waves to ever effect SW Louisiana.

The forecast for this entire period will be very similar. Drier air will continue to take over in the mid and upper levels, and some drier air will mix down into the lower levels as well as high pressure continues to backbuild into the forecast area. This persistent ridge will dominate the weather across the Gulf Coastal Plain. This will keep rain chances in the slight category through the entire Labor Day Holiday Weekend, and beyond. Generally Partly Cloudy skies are to be expected during the day with the chance for late night/early morning low clouds each day as well given the high amounts of low-level moisture. A few thermally driven storms will be possible during the peak heating hours as the persistent onshore flow at the surface will favor the development of the afternoon sea breeze. Rain chances will remain less than average through the period, and there will be slight day to day fluctuations through the forecast period. There will be very little in the way of synoptic scale features to produce anything significant in the way of rainfall. However, there will be a weak, late summer cool front sagging into the northern half of the forecast area. This feature could ultimately raise rain chances in the Friday-Saturday time frame, however, the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will remain largely capped thanks to the controlling ridge. Still, one or two storms will fire during the afternoon hours. Overall, the Labor Day Holiday Weekend looks like a winner with seasonable temps, and minimal rain chances. All weekend activities including all the area football games will be fine, just a little hot with lots of humidity. Temperatures will be seasonal for early September with mid 70s for lows, and highs in the low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices will average right around 100, give or take a degree. Hurricane Earl will have no effect on our weather, but the building ridge and digging trough will ultimately steer Earl towards the Mid-Atlantic States in the latter half of the week as a formidable hurricane. It remains to be seen on the severity of the impacts to that region. More on that in the tropical section.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  76/93  75/93  76/93  10 20 10 20 10 10
LFT   75/92  76/93  75/93  10 20 10 20 10 10
BPT   76/92  76/93  76/94  10 20 10 20 10 10
AEX  73/94  73/95  74/95  10 20 10 20 10 10
POE  73/94  73/95  74/95  10 20 10 20 10 10
ARA  77/91  76/92  76/92  10 20 10 20 10 10

Tonight...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SSE wind.

Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 75. Light SSE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.

Thursday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 76. Light SSE wind.

Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
9-1-10
2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


Thursday
9-2-10

Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 98-103
U.V.: 11- Very High


Friday
9-3-10

Low: 76
High: 93
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
9-4-10

Low: 75
High: 94
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Sunday
9-5-10

Low: 76
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Monday
9-6-10
Labor Day

Low: 75
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
9-7-10

Low: 76
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10
H.I.: 100-105
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Tropical Update...

Earl...Hurricane Earl is the big story tonight, and will continue to be through the weekend. Earl is a very powerful and dangerous category 4 hurricane tonight as it makes its closest approach to the Turks and Caicos Islands. The threat to the East Coast of the United States from the Mid-Atlantic to the New England states continues to increase. The jury is still out on exactly how adverse the weather conditions will get across that area, but it is possible that the eye of Earl could make 2 or 3 landfalls along the East coast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to Long Island to Cape Cod and maybe even Coastal Maine. Future adjustments to the track are expected over the next few days. Earl will continue to move NW away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and brush by the SE Bahamas on Wednesday. The threat to the U.S. East Coast will come Thursday through Friday, and the storm will begin to move into the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend. Earl continues to be steered around the periphery of a large Eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. An additional synoptic feature will come into play as we head into the latter half of the week. It is in the form of a deepening trough over the Great Lakes and Mid West. This trough and associated cold front will be approaching the East Coast of the United States as we head into the latter half of the work week. The flow out ahead of said trough will have a direct impact on the future track of Earl. Earl's intensity has leveled off for now, but it could strengthen a bit more over the next 24 hours before conditions become less favorable, at which time Earl should begin to weaken. Earl has remained at category 4 intensity, despite looking a bit less impressive tonight when compared to earlier today. The overall structure of the storm remains the same, but the eye is less visible. This is usually indicative of an eyewall replacement cycle. These are very common in the larger, more intense hurricanes.

Earl will remain a formidable hurricane, and while it is currently at a very potent category 4 state, some weakening will occur as Earl begins to move further North and start to parallel the Eastern Seaboard. The cooler SSTS to its North, and wind shear associated with the advancement of the early September trough will lead to a weakening trend beyond the next 24 hours. Earl will likely maintain itself at category 4 intensity through Wednesday, and then begin to weaken slowly by Thursday. Earl will begin to turn more to the NE as the influence of the trough increases. The current forecast intensity keeps Earl a major hurricane as it nears the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Thursday, and as a strong category 2 hurricane as it makes its closest approach to Long Island and Cape Cod in the Friday afternoon-Friday night time slot. The transition to a strong extratropical cyclone likely of hurricane intensity will begin beyond this point with Earl moving into the Canadian Province of Nova Scotia Saturday evening. Again, the actual track of Earl is still very uncertain, but it now appears that it will track close enough to the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic to New England to spread gusty winds and squally weather over a large portion of the area. It seems increasingly likely that hurricane force winds may impact the coastline of North Carolina, and tropical storm conditions will make their presence felt further North in Coastal New England. A track further to the left (West) would increase the impacts greatly, and would increase the chances of hurricane conditions for many of the big cities along the East Coast. It is also possible that Earl could make that turn a bit sooner than currently forecast, and that would lessen the effects to the East Coast. It is pretty certain that Earl will be influenced by the incoming trough, but we shall wait and see as to how much of the United States is to be impacted by this season's second major hurricane. Earl has been moving swiftly throughout his journey, and as it is picked up by the advancing trough Earl's forward motion will increase. Evacuations will begin Wednesday morning for coastal sections of North Carolina. Many other areas will likely follow suite Wednesday and Thursday as Earl approaches. Hurricane Watches have already been issued for portions of the North Carolina Coast, and I fully expect additional Watches/Warnings to be posted on Wednesday.

Hurricane Earl Advisory

10p.m. CDT Tuesday, August 31, 2010

...Earl Maintains Category 4 Strength...Impacts to East Coast of U.S. Likely Thursday and Friday...

Latitude: 23.0 N

Longitude: 69.9 W

This is about 130 miles NE of Grand Turk Island & 910 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, NC.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph w/ higher gusts- category 4. Very little change in strength is expected through Wednesday, and Earl should remain a major hurricane in the high end category 3 or low end category 4 range. The large wind field of Hurricane Earl is producing hurricane force winds outward to 90 miles from the eye, while tropical storm force winds extend outward to 200 miles from the eye.

Movement: NW or 315 degrees @ 15 mph. This general motion is forecast to continue on Wednesday, with a gradual turn towards the NNW expected thereafter. On this track, the core of Hurricane Earl will be passing well to the E and NE of the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, and to the NE of the Bahamas on Wednesday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 27.76" or 940 mb.

Watches/Warnings....A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Coast of North Carolina from Surf City Northward to the Virginia Border. This includes Pamlico and Ambermarle Sound.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, while a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the SE Bahamas, and for the Coast of North Carolina from Surf City Southward to Cape Fear.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued about 48 hours before the expected onslaught of tropical storm conditions. These conditions make outdoor preparations difficult.

Everyone from the Carolinas to New England needs to closely monitor the progress of Earl.

Wind...The Turks and Caicos are probably experiencing Tropical Storm conditions as of this writing. Conditions will improve over this area Wednesday as Earl moves further away.

Storm surge...Above normal tides accompanied by large, dangerous and battering waves are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the SE Bahamas tonight.

Rainfall...Rainfall totals of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts to 6" are expected in the SE Bahamas and over the Turks & Caicos Islands through Wednesday.

The next intermediate advisory from the National Hurricane Center will come around 1a.m. CDT Wednesday, with the next complete advisory to follow at 4a.m. CDT Wednesday.

Fiona...Tropical Storm Fiona has been struggling to survive. It maintains its tropical storm intensity, but barely. Fiona is following very closely on the heels of Earl. This is having a significant impact on the circulation. While, most of the conditions in place are favorable for the fickle Fiona to strengthen further, this process has been negated by significant wind shear out ahead of Fiona. This wind shear is being created by the circulation around Earl, and the current left behind by Earl. In fact, Fiona has been eaten up so much by the wind shear in its vicinity, that it doesn't even take on the shape of a classic tropical system anymore. However, the center of circulation remains clearly evident tonight. There is some deep convection near the center, so keeping this classified as a tropical system is justifiable for the time being. The intensity of Fiona is 40 mph, a minimal tropical storm. Fiona will continue to struggle to survive for the next several days.

The ongoing wind shear could lead to the demise of Fiona especially given the fact that the shear is forecast to increase in the days ahead as the circulation of enormous Earl wraps into the flow of Fiona. Fiona will ingest the increasing shear, and will likely not get much stronger at all. In fact, dissipation seems more likely than anything at this juncture. There is a small window of opportunity for Fiona to marginally strengthen through Wednesday, but this window will close rather quickly as the cyclone moves into the highly sheared environment. Fiona is expected to remain a weak storm, and is forecast to dissipate over the open waters of the Atlantic in about 4-5 days. This can certainly change especially if Fiona can get further removed from the circulation around the back side of Earl. Fiona is following so closely on the heels of Earl, that it will be affecting the Northern Leeward Islands Wednesday, thankfully, with minimal effects when compared to her predecessor on Monday. Fiona is currently being steered around the southern edge of the same anti-cyclone which has been controlling Earl. However, as Fiona moves further West, it will begin to take on a more NW to NNW heading. This is as the result of a Southerly flow that has developed in the wake of Earl, and the building Bermuda High. Fiona poses no threat to land, and dissipation is forecast as we head into Labor Day weekend.

Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory

10p.m. CDT Tuesday, August 31, 2010

...Fickle Fiona Following Closely Behind Earl...Remains a Minimal Tropical Storm...

Latitude: 16.9 N

Longitude: 59.4 W

This is about 260 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Maximum Sustained Wind: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Very little change in strength is expected through Wednesday, with weakening forecast to occur beyond that point. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 140 miles from the center of circulation.

Movement: WNW or 290 degrees @ 20 mph. A turn to the NW is expected to occur on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Fiona is expected to pass near or just NE of the Northward Leeward Islands on Wednesday.

Minimum Central Pressure...29.71" or 1006 mb.

Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Warning is effect for the islands of St. Martin & St. Barthelemy . A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the following islands: Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba, & St. Eustasius.

Wind...Tropical storm conditions may overspread the Northern Leeward Islands on Wednesday.

The next intermediate advisory on Fiona will be issued at 1a.m. CDT Wednesday, while the next complete advisory will follow that at 4a.m. CDT Wednesday.

Elsewhere, we continue to watch another Cape Verde tropical wave that has the potential to develop down the road. The environment over the Far Eastern Atlantic is conducive for environment, so it seems likely that this system will come Gaston in the days ahead. It is still an organizing system, and it's far too early to speculate on whether or not this would pose a threat to any landmasses. Of all the cyclones that have emerged off of Africa so far, this one is further South, and will have a better chance of threatening the Gulf of Mexico down the road. However, there is no way to tell for sure. The storm is on board as Invest 98L, and models have initialized the system as well. It is not a classified system as of yet, and that's why it is hard to discern any significant pattern. There is a low chance of development with this system for the next 24 hours.

No other tropical entities are expected to develop through Wednesday.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night And Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...East winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-