February Freeze Tonight...Next Major Storm Moves in Late Wednesday...Winter Storm Potential Increasing???

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

The blog remains in short form until further notice, due to the active weather pattern.

*Possibilities of Frozen Precipitation Increasing for Thursday-Friday.*

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Cold air is firmly entrenched across the forecast area in the wake of last night's cold front. Clouds hung around across the area through the morning, but skies quickly cleared during the late morning hours as strong high pressure built down into the region over the Red River Valley. The system moved quickly, and rainfall totals were limited to around an inch or less. Much colder weather took over in the wake of the front, and this is what was experienced today. High temperatures reached the upper 40s to lower 50s with plenty of sunshine in the afternoon. It felt like the 40s all day with the strong, gusty winds over 20 mph at times. It is going to be a cold night across the forecast area with an area freeze expected with high pressure in control. Winds have relaxed somewhat since this afternoon, but will not go entirely calm due to the orientation of high. This will inhibit maximum radiative potential somewhat, and there will also be some high clouds streaming across the forecast area with a very active Subtropical Jet Stream overhead to help curtail the maximum radiational cooling potential ...this will come into play later on in the forecast period!!! However, the air mass in place is very dry, and skies are clear enough that a freeze will occur. I see no reason to deviate from my forecast from last night with lows expected to be in the mid 20s to near freezing across the forecast area. Wind chill readings will be in low to mid 20s first thing in the morning.

Wednesday will be a dry day, but the high clouds will continue to increase, and by day's end it will certainly be Mostly Cloudy. The clouds will filter the sunshine at times throughout the day as the next big storm system approaches. The typical El Nino storm pattern will repeat itself this go around. The next headache is clearly visible on satellite imagery tonight. There are several components that will come together to bring back the rain chances to the forecast as early as Wednesday night. The first ingredient is already in place, and that is the aforementioned STJ. Another strong cut off upper level low has crashed ashore over Southern California. This will continue to move Eastward over the next couple of days. As it does so, it will energize the STJ, and the occurrence that has taken place many times already this winter will do so once again...Gulf cyclogensis. Wednesday will see the increased cloud cover, but it should remain precip free. Temperatures will struggle to warm up much with the clouds in place. The high clouds will negate the maximum daytime heating potential, just as they curtail the maximum radiational cooling potential at night. That being said, temperatures should fall short of 50, and top out in the mid to upper 40s at best.

The dry weather will carry over into Wednesday night, but it will come to an end overnight. Isentropic lift (overrunning) will commence in the overnight hours as the conglomeration of ingredients takes place. It will overspread the forecast area from West to East overnight, and as it does so light precipitation will break out across the area. Activity should be scattered at first, and this is reflected in the official forecast for this period. However, the precipitation type comes into question here. Temperatures at this time will still be on the cold side with readings falling into the 30s once again. The current air mass in place is very dry, with dew points down into the 10s and 20s. The orientation of the controlling high will not allow for a surface return flow to commence, therefore, moisture levels at the surface will still be very dry as precip begins. The overrunning will create a layer of warm, moist air aloft. This will help to moisten up the boundary layer, and result in light precip to begin reaching the ground eventually. At the onset of the precip, late Wednesday night and Thursday morning evaporative cooling is expected with the dry surface layer. What this means is that as precip falls, it will likely not reach the ground at first (virga). However, at the same time it will result in a moisten up of the boundary layer, which will raise the dew points, but the evaporating precip will also cool off the surface temperature. What this means for precip type from Wednesday night into Thursday morning is some sleet likely will be mixed in with the rain. The precip could in fact begin as sleet depending on what time it commences. Models begin to diverge on the timing of the precip, but certainly with the added energy of the Jet Stream and earlier start time is feasible. Temperatures will bottom out in the lower 30s (near freezing) for Thursday morning, however, due to the light nature of the precip and much of it evaporating initially no icing problems are expected. Winds will become an issue once again as cyclogenesis occurs in the Gulf, and the strong Arctic high only slowly ridges Eastward. NE winds around 15 mph are expected. The forecast will reflect the possibility of light sleet/freezing rain and rain after midnight with better chances occurring right around sunrise.

The upper level low will move across Texas only slowly Thursday, and while that is ongoing the Gulf low will be tracking Eastward over the coastal waters. This coastal storm will again provide for rough conditions offshore. The overrunning effect will be maximized at this time, therefore precip chances are maxed out at this time in response to the movement of this latest El Nino storm. The morning hours mainly from around 6-10a.m. will continue the possibility of some frozen precip mostly in the form of sleet. The atmospheric sounding doesn't support snow at this time for any location in the forecast area except maybe the extreme Northern fringe. A significant snowstorm may occur for North Louisiana, where all the precip associated with this system may fall as snow. The I-20 corridor seems like a prime spot for significant accumulations. Back home, no accumulation of sleet is expected due to the very light nature of the precip and the slowly eroding drier layer of air at the surface. The aforementioned features will create plenty of lift across the area. All precip should become liquid before noon, but it will continue through the day and as isentropic lift continues to strengthen in the afternoon, rainfall will become heavier with 1-2" of rain expected on Thursday. Regardless of if we have any frozen precip or not on Thursday, it will be a very raw day. The forecast area will remain on the cold side of the system as the low tracks through the Gulf. Model guidance continues to be way too warm for maximums on day 2 (Thursday), and I will undercut them by several degrees. The highs may be more than 20 degrees below normal for mid February. We will struggle to reach 40 Thursday, and the winds will produce a wind chill well down in the 20s. Rain should be the primary precip for the majority of the daylight hours on Thursday, but heading into Thursday night things will most likely change again...

Rain could be heavy at times Thursday evening and Thursday night as the low makes its closest approach to the forecast area, this is the surface low mind you. The upper level will still be back over Texas at this time. An additional 1-2" of rain is expected during this time, but after midnight as the surface low moves Eastward, and the upper level low approaches much of the area North of I-10 will transition from rain to snow as temperatures drop into the lower 30s once again, and some colder air on the back side of the low in the upper levels filters in slowly. Further South, a mix of rain and snow is expected down to the coast after midnight as the low tracks through the Gulf passing a good 100-200 miles offshore. The eventual track of the low will determine exactly what kind of precipitation the forecast area will see. Right now, I suspect the surface low should track from off the Lower Texas coast to 100-200 miles offshore of Louisiana, to the NE Gulf. This track is an average of the forecast models. Models diverge on the exact track of the low with some bringing it closer to the coast, and some keeping it even further offshore. A track closer to the coast would lessen our frozen precip chances in this case because of the warm air created by the low, but a track further over the Gulf would pull down colder air, thus in turn increasing the frozen precip chances heading into Friday morning. At this time, the most likely time frame to see snow across the forecast area, and perhaps a significant winter storm somewhere in close proximity will be this time frame from the overnight hours on Thursday through noon Friday. The current forecast track of the low suggests that a band of heavy snow will occur somewhere in the forecast area, likely north of I-10 between the Hwy. 190 and Hwy. 84 corridor. I believe that area will see the greatest chance of seeing several inches of snow, with lighter amounts on either side of that zone. I will be more specific about possible accumulations in the forecast area tomorrow if it still is trending towards snow/sleet possibilities. For now, I suspect that most of the forecast area will see some sleet and snow, but accumulations will be limited due to wet grounds and marginal surface temperatures.
Getting back to the snow potential for late Thursday and Friday...the low tracking through the Gulf is a favorable set up, and I believe there will certainly be a deformation zone (convergence). It is more often than not these deformation zones that lead to heavy snowfall. Meteorology is an imperfect science, and there is no skill in predicting where the heaviest snow amounts will be this far out when we have a system that is hard to detect by our upper air networks at this stage of the game. So, hopefully we'll have a more clear cut solution on Wednesday. The set up with this system is somewhat similar to the snow event back in December, but there are some differences. The biggest difference lies in the atmospheric profile, and some synoptic scale features that factor into snowfall forecasting. Temperatures will be marginal in a layer just above the surface as a warm tongue of air resides in response to the ongoing isentropic lift. This layer around 850 mb. (5,000 ft) is forecast to be above freezing, thus melting the snow as it falls, however, it is a shallow layer, and with the cold surface temperatures the precip will have time to transition back to a frozen form of either sleet or snow. Temperatures at the surface should be just above freezing for much of the area with the exception of areas along and North of Hwy. 190, and this will likely result in melting on contact with the ground. However, with plenty of lift and moisture being overthrown by the low heavier precip is still possible Friday morning, and if this occurs then some snow accumulations will be likely mainly on grass and elevated surfaces. Precipitation should wind down Friday afternoon, but will likely change back to mix or all rain depending on how much warming occurs during the day. There certainly won't be much warming as the cold air remains in place with the clouds and precipitation in a continuous state as well. I doubt we get out of the 30s on Friday, and I will forecast upper 30s at best. Coldest locations across the forecast area will likely barely make it above freezing, and thus they stand a better chance of real snow. Once again, I stress that forecasting snow is by far the most  difficult task in all of meteorology, and there is still a lot of question marks at this point. I strongly urge you to stay tuned over the next couple of days, and by all means please don't get your hopes up just because I've mentioned the "s" word. This is a very borderline situation between a significant winter storm, and just a plain ole cold rain for the duration of the event. Here's my best guess right now...snow will fall, but only light accumulations are expected Friday morning with less than an inch along and South of Hwy. 190 and 1-2" North of the Hwy. 190 corridor. Locations closer to Alexandria could see over 2", but I will re-evaluate tomorrow as I said. The upper level low will evacuate the region Friday afternoon, thus ending all precip liquid and frozen. The cold temperatures will remain, though it should be above freezing allowing for any snow or sleet to melt. Gusty winds will continue as well creating brutal wind chills in the 10s at times.

Conditions improve for Friday night, but it will be cold. This is good news with a plethora of Mardi Gras parades and events slated to kickoff the long festive weekend. Skies will clear Friday night as high pressure builds in behind the departing low. This will result in another freeze for most locations. Low clouds will hang around through the evening with a slow clearing overnight, otherwise we would easily see 20s for Saturday morning. This could certainly still change depending on how things evolve with the frozen precip. Winds will stay up as well, limiting cooling, but also producing wind chills in the 10s to lower 20s by morning. You will certainly need to bundle up if you heading out to some Mardi Gras parades, but at least you can leave the umbrella in the car. For now, I will forecast a low close to 30. Saturday looks great, but cold with highs only warming to the mid 40s as the Arctic air remains in place. It will slowly moderate beginning Saturday night into Sunday morning. 30s are expected once again with another light freeze in the offing. Much of the long Mardi Gras weekend looks dry, all of it looks cold! The fly in the ointment comes in late Sunday into Monday as another embedded disturbance in this ever persistent El Nino storm track moves across. It will be much weaker than its predecessor. Clouds will increase on Sunday (Valentine's Day), but much of the day will remain dry for parades and such. Highs should reach the lower 50s Sunday. A rain chance is introduced Sunday night as this disturbance moves in. The air mass should moderate enough that it will be rain. Rain chances will be small at this time for this period, and it should be a quick mover. Lows for the Sunday night and Monday morning time frame should be somewhere in the mid to upper 30s. The disturbance moves on out Monday (Lundi Gras), and does bring another cold front through the area. Clouds may hang around for much of the day Monday, and it will be windy as well with the usual pressure anomalies taking place. Monday's highs will be held down into the 40s because of the clouds and CAA behind the short wave and cold front. For Mardi Gras day itself, it looks Sunny with high pressure in place across the Bayou State. What could perhaps be the biggest Mardi Gras ever as we continue to celebrate the Saints, looks like one of the coldest in some time as well. A significant freeze is in the offing as more Arctic air spews into the forecast area. It could be as cold as the mid 20s across portions of the forecast area, with readings right around freezing at the coast. The mid-February sun will try to offset CAA across the area, but temperatures will only reach the mid 40s at best. The cold weather will continue beyond the forecast period through Ash Wednesday and beyond. The active Subtropical Jet Stream will continue as well, so we could very well have much below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation through the entire month of February. Stay tuned for all the latest on the frozen precip possibilities!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  28/47  32/38  33/39  0 0 30 100 100 80
LFT   27/48  32/39  33/38  0 0 30 100 100 80
BPT   29/47  33/40  34/41  0 0 40 100 100 70
AEX  25/46  28/36  30/36  0 0 30 100 100 80
POE  25/46  29/37  30/37  0 0 30 100 100 80
ARA  29/48  32/41  34/42  0 0 30 100 100 80


Tonight...Clear and Cold. Low 28. North wind 10 mph. Wind chill around 20 by sunrise.

Wednesday...Mostly Sunny early, Increasing Cloudiness through the day. Mostly Cloudy by evening. Cold. High 47. North wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy and Cold with a 30% chance of light rain and sleet after midnight. No sleet accumulation. Low 32. NE wind 10 mph. Wind chills in the 20s.

Thursday...Cloudy, Cold, & Windy with Rain likely. Sleet possible in the morning. No sleet accumulation. Rain heavy at times. 1-2" of rainfall expected. High 38. NE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind chills in the 20s.

Thursday Night...Cloudy, Cold, & Windy with Rain likely before midnight. Rain and Snow mix after midnight. Possibly all snow around sunrise. Little or no snow accumulation. Precipitation heavy at times. Low 33. NE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of precipitation 100%. Wind chills in the 20s.

Friday...Cloudy, Cold, & Windy with rain and snow mix likely in the morning. All snow possible from around sunrise til mid-morning. Precipitation ending in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. High 39. North wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 20s. Chance of precipitation 80%.


Wednesday 2/10/10 Daily Planner

7a.m.

Sky: Sunny, Cold
Temp: 28
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 8


Noon

Sky: Partly Cloudy, Cold
Temp: 42
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 11

5p.m.

Sky: Mostly Cloudy, Cold
Temp: 45
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 9


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
2-10-10

Low: 28
High: 47
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 20-30


Thursday
2-11-10

Rain/Sleet...No Accumulations
Low: 32
High: 38
Precip: 100%
Wind: NE 15-20
W.C.: 20-25


Friday
2-12-10

Rain/Snow...No Accumulations
Low: 33
High: 39
Precip: 80%
Wind: N 15-20
W.C.: 20-25


Saturday
2-13-10

Low: 30
High: 45
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 20-30


Sunday
2-14-10
Valentine's Day

Low: 33
High: 51
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 10
W.C.: 25-40


Monday
2-15-10
President's Day
Lundi Gras

Low: 36
High: 46
Precip: 30% AM
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 20-30


Tuesday
2-16-10
Mardi Gras

Low: 28
High: 46
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-35


...Marine Forecast...

---

Tonight...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 2 feet.

Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of rain after midnight.

Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain in the morning...then rain in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain.

Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

The Return of Winter...Active Pattern Continues...Frozen Precip Later This Week???

Monday, February 8, 2010

WHO DAT! WHO DAT! The Saints Miracle Season is Complete...Saints 31 Colts 17...The New Orleans Saints won Super Bowl XLIV to claim their first ever NFL Title and the first ever professional world championship in professional sports for the city of New Orleans and the great state of Louisiana! We are so proud of you, boys! Bless you, boys! Congratulations!

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...February 2010 has been a chilly one so far, as has the winter of 2009-2010 overall. The trend will continue this week, and then some. After a mild day with highs reaching the lower 60s with mostly cloudy skies, a strong cold front is slicing through the area tonight. A line of showers and thunderstorms marks this boundary with some lightning and strong winds, but no severe weather has occurred or is expected. Rain chances are quickly tapering off, and will be almost non-existent by 2-3a.m. Moisture levels increased throughout the day, and a weak warm front lifted NE through the forecast area through the day. This created the instability and lift necessary to produce the expected rainfall. The front is moving through very quickly, and this has helped to limit rainfall amounts to an inch or less across the area. A sharp temperature gradient exists across our great state with 60s out ahead of the boundary over Acadiana and into SE Louisiana, while temperatures have dropped into the 30s in NW Louisiana. Temperatures are beginning to drop here in Lake Charles, as CAA takes over in the wake of the Arctic front. Tumbling temperatures will be the name of the game in the wake of the front, and we will be fiercely reminded that it is still winter. Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area overnight. Some intermittent light rain or drizzle can't be ruled out behind the front, but for the most part the significant rainfall is over for now across the majority of the forecast area. Winds will increase as well behind the front with NNW winds over 25 mph at times after midnight. A wind chill factor will come into play as well by Tuesday morning with readings down into the 20s at times.

Tuesday will be a dry day, but clouds will be hesitant to vacate the region at first. Some clearing will be noted during the day, but it may take much of the day for skies to completely clear with a large low cloud deck hanging back over Texas. Even if we end up with more sunshine than expected, it will be a very cold day Tuesday. CAA will continue as a large high who's source region is from Canada builds down into the region. Don't expect temperatures to get out of the 40s. This is much closer to the normal low than the normal high. The actual high will occur at midnight in the mid 50s, but as the CAA strengthens after midnight temperatures will begin a more rapid free fall until after sunrise. Only a slow rise is expected with temperatures topping out between 45 and 48. Winds will remain quite gusty through the morning hours as the presence of a strong pressure gradient exists. Winds will slack off in the afternoon as the high nudges into the area. Skies clear Tuesday evening, and this will set the stage for an area wide freeze Tuesday night. Temperatures should fall into the mid 20s across the northern portion of the forecast area, and be tempered upwards toward the coast with readings right around freezing. Please be sure to take the necessary freeze precautions. (pets and plants). Pipes shouldn't be an issue this time around. This air mass isn't quite as cold as the one from a month ago, but there is also a significant snow pack down into the Ozarks which will limit air mass modification as the cold air is transported into the area. Other than it being cold, quiet weather is in store for the Tuesday night period. If you are going to New Orleans to celebrate with the Saints in the victory parade, bring a coat. It should be in the mid 40s at parade time with temperatures falling into the upper 30s before it's over. Cold and dry weather is expected for Wednesday as well, but the benign weather will once again be short-lived as the ever progressive pattern of the winter of 2009-2010 continues to rear its ugly head. The day should start Sunny with the freezing temperatures across the area, but clouds will increase during the day as our next system approaches. Highs should top out in the mid to upper 40s, well below normal once again. There is some question as to how fast we'll cloud back up again, and this will dictate how warm we get (relatively speaking). If it starts clouding up sooner than expected at this time, then highs will be in the lower end of the 40s, but if the clouds are delayed til later in the day then 50 is feasible. For now, I'll split the difference, but either it is sure to be cold. Winds won't be as much of an issue, but there will be some to factor into the equation as there will be a pressure discrepancy with the approach of the next system.

By Wednesday night, clouds increase in earnest as the next storm system begins to impinge upon the forecast area. This system (at least part of it) is currently evident on satellite imagery off the coast of the Pacific NW. This storm will continue the continuous parade of storms, and is diving SE tonight. It will move quickly via a strong Jet Stream through the Rockies and Great Plains, and round the base of a digging trough and across Texas and into our area the second half of the work week. The Subtropical Jet Stream will remain active over the area, and as the Pacific system moves our way, the same song and dance that we've seen so many times this winter will occur once again. Another The system will engender another Gulf low, and its eventual track remains to be seen. Moisture will be drawn Northward and as another cut off upper level low develops overrunning will prevail underneath the cold air at the surface. The orientation of the low will not allow for any return flow, therefore, the cold air will remain in place. Wednesday night minimums will be near freezing. This is where a whole degree of uncertainty comes in. Rain chances will return to the forecast, but the more widespread rain should hold off until Thursday during the day. However, there will be enough vertical ascent Wednesday night for rain to develop. The surface temperatures Wednesday night/Thursday morning could be cold enough to be supportive of frozen precipitation. The atmospheric profile suggests that if it does occur, it would be in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet. There is a certain degree of complexity with this forecast, and forecasting winter weather is challenging to say the least. I feel as though models are a few degrees too warm, and would concur that the sleet or freezing rain possibilities may come to fruition. Snow appears out of the question at this time for this time frame at least here along I-10. North Louisiana looks to possibly see some very significant snow with this next storm. Overrunning will continue to strengthen through the night, thus precipitation chances will reach the likely category by Thursday morning. Another reason why I believe some frozen precip will occur in this time frame is because of wet bulbing or evaporative cooling. The air mass should be dry enough initially that as precip begins, it will evaporate thus cooling the air column a few degrees while at the same time increasing boundary layer moisture.

Rain is inevitable for Thursday as the Gulf low intensifies and tracks Eastward. It's ultimate track will determine what kind of weather we see. The current track would favor the significant snow threat for North Louisiana, while it leaves our area on the fence as far as seeing any wintry precip. Rain could be heavy at times with an additional 1-2" of rain expected. Any sleet or freezing rain early Thursday morning will change over to all rain by mid-morning. It is too early to suggest how much if any ice would accumulate. I'll take another stab at this issue tomorrow. No severe weather is expected, but precipitation will likely cover the entire state by this time. Temperatures will be hard pressed to make it to 40 degrees on Thursday. A low tracking closer to the coast would decrease any winter weather threat initially as a slug of warmer air would move into the region, while a low that tracks away from the coast over the Gulf would increase the threat for winter weather, and also the likelihood of snow. Exactly what track the low takes is uncertain as models diverge on this idea. Perhaps, for now the way to play it is to split the difference, and go for a track that keeps the possibility of frozen precip in the mix, but doesn't make snow likely. Winds will also be an issue as the Gulf low advances and tightens the pressure gradient resulting in winds over 20 mph out of the NE around the circulation of the low. Timing discrepancies exist as well, but the worst of the weather should be over with by late Thursday. However, rain and precip chances will continue into Friday most likely.

A better chance of frozen precipitation could occur Thursday night and Friday morning on the back side of the low. The back side of the low will help pull down even colder air as is usual, and with a snow pack expected to be even further South at that time, even less air mass modification is expected. I am not ready to jump on the idea of snow yet, but one more day of watching the model runs, and I may have to nibble. I certainly will keep the chance for a mixed bag of precipitation in the forecast with the idea that it will be all snow from Alexandria Northward. The rain chance will continue as the surface low departs, and the upper level low continues to approach. It will take until sometime Friday afternoon for all the moisture to leave the area as the ULL is cut off from the main flow. Don't get your expectations up on seeing anything frozen just yet, this is shear speculation, and models have been consistent enough with it since the weekend that you can't ignore it, but I think we'll have a lot better idea come tomorrow when we're in the cold air and we'll see how the air mass behaves. With the clouds and rain temperatures won't change much from Thursday to Thursday night with only about a 4-7 degree diurnal range at best. Thursday night/Friday morning minimums will be kept in the mid 30s at this point, but again if the low tracks in the right position even this will be cold enough for snow. Friday maximums will once again struggle to reach 40, and I will undercut guidance by several degrees. Numerical guidance is completely out to lunch when it comes to high temperatures for this period due to the fact that in that time frame models are skewed towards climatology. All precip, liquid or frozen, or whatever should end Friday afternoon as the upper level low and surface low ushering in drier air just in time for the weekend. Stay tuned! The wind will continue to be pretty stiff as well adding insult to injury. Wind chills will be in the lower to middle 20s much of the day.

This is a very important weekend indeed...It's Mardi Gras and Valentine's Day! Many Mardi Gras festivities kick off Thursday or Friday depending on where you are. Any Thursday activities don't look so good, but by Friday night the weather looks promising just cold. Skies clear Friday night and there will be another area wide freeze heading into Saturday morning as the Arctic air remains firmly entrenched over the area. Again, I will undercut guidance as temperatures are just too warm at this time. Mid 20s are possible as far South as I-10, but for now I will be a bit conservative and forecast upper 20s, similar to Wednesday morning. This active pattern has brought us an incredibly wet winter, but at least for the most part in 2010 so far our weekends have been nice. That will be the case again this weekend with plenty of sunshine expected both Saturday and Sunday. However, the Arctic air isn't going anywhere. Highs on Saturday with full sunshine will only reach the mid 40s. Another freeze is on tap for Saturday night heading into Valentine's Day on Sunday. Bundle up if you are heading out to Mardi Gras festivities. It will be weather for cuddling with your "valentine." A much weaker system embedded in the active STJ will likely help to increase clouds Sunday afternoon, but it should remain dry. There will be some hint of a warm up at that time as well, but temperatures will still be well below normal with highs approaching 50. The end of the forecast period (Lundi Gras) offers another chance of rain, albeit much smaller than the one that awaits us this week. The next embedded short wave should be much weaker, but should certainly generate enough lift and forcing to produce some cold rain. There will a cold front associated with this system as well, and this will keep the cold weather in place through Mardi Gras Day itself next Tuesday. The chance of rain on Monday has the potential to carry over to Mardi Gras, but it looks like the system will be a fast mover, and it'll be out of here in time for the culmination of the 2010 carnival season. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s once again with lows in the 30s. Another shot of frozen precipitation is possible for Northern Louisiana at this time. Mardi Gras is just beyond the scope of the 7 day, but warrants a look for sure at this point. The early prognostication is Mostly Cloudy, Cold, and Windy with a 20% chance of a shower. Highs should be in the mid 40s while lows will be in the mid 30s....brrr! In closing, here's an aside...the 2 heaviest snowfalls in history across SW Lousiana occurred during this week...February 8-14. 22" of snow fell at Lake Charles on February 14-15, 1895 and 5" fell at Lake Charles on February 12-13, 1960. So, don't give up hope, but don't get them up either at this point!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  40/47  28/48  32/40  40 0 0 0 40 100
LFT   41/48  27/48  31/40  60 0 0 0 30 100
BPT   39/49  30/48  33/41  20 0 0 0 50 100
AEX  36/45  25/44  29/37  30 0 0 0 30 100
POE  37/45  25/45  29/38  20 0 0 0 30 100
ARA  44/48  29/48  34/42  60 0 0 0 30 100


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Colder with a 40% chance of light rain or drizzle. Low 40. NNW wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Wind chill near 30 by morning.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy with some clearing during the day. Cold & Windy. High 48. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, diminishing during the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Cold. Low 28. Light North wind.

Wednesday...Sunny early, becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. High 48. NE wind 5 mph.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy and Cold with rain developing overnight. Rain possibly mixed with or changing to sleet and/or freezing rain towards morning. Low 32. NE wind 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.

Thursday...Cloudy, Cold, & Windy with Rain likely. Rain may start as or be mixed with sleet and/or freezing rain until mid-morning. High 40. NNE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of precipitation 100%.


Tuesday 2/9/10 Daily Planner

7a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, Cold
Temp: 40
Chance of Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15
Wind Chill: 30

Noon

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Cold
Temp: 45
Chance of Rain: 0%
Wind: N 13
Wind Chill: 36

5p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear, Cold
Temp: 46
Chance of Rain: 0%
Wind: N 12
W.C.: 35


Drew's 7 Day Forecast

Tuesday
2-9-10

Low: 40
High: 47
Precip: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 25-35


Wednesday
2-10-10

Low: 28
High: 48
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5
W.C.: 25-40


Thursday
2-11-10

Low: 32
High: 40
Precip: 100%
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 20-25


Friday
2-12-10

Low: 34
High: 38
Precip: 60%
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 15-25


Saturday
2-13-10

Low: 27
High: 44
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 20-30


Sunday
2-14-10
Valentine's Day

 

Low: 29

High: 48

Precip: 0%

Wind: NE 5-10

W.C.: 25-35

Monday

2-15-10

President's Day

Lundi Gras

Low: 35

High: 45

Precip: 40%

Wind: NNE 10-15

W.C.: 25-30

...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory.*

Tonight...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest 20 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 3 feet building to 5 feet after midnight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday...North winds 20 to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. A slight chance of rain.

Thursday...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet. Rain.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Major Mid-Week Storm is Here...Heavy Rain & Flooding Possible...Weekend Looks Super...Arctic Air to Return Next Week...

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The much advertised prolonged rain event is underway. It came in spurts at first during the day today with light rain commencing before noon, and off and on throughout the afternoon.  This was just a harbinger of things to come. The same pattern that we have seen many times so far this season is at it again. As of this writing, a solid shield of rain encompasses the entire forecast area. It was rather raw throughout the day as well with temperatures right on track of the official forecast in the mid 50s. Rain cooled air dropped the temperatures into the 40s as some wet bulbing occurred this morning with relatively dry air in place at the surface. Rain will continue all night as the ingredients come together to produce this prolonged rain event and heavy rain and flooding threat.

A strong short wave embedded in the active Subtropical Jet Stream, and rounding the base of a Western trough is moving Eastward tonight, and this feature combined with the STJ energy has generated cyclogenesis in the Western Gulf. The low will slowly track up the coast overnight through Thursday, and the rain will be unrelenting. Rain will be increasing in intensity throughout the night as isentropic lift increases with the advancement of the low. Rain will be heavy at times after midnight through Thursday. The greatest risk for flooding will occur along and South of I-10 where storm totals could exceed 4" in some locations, but the average rainfall amounts will be 2-3". Lighter amounts will occur across the Northern portion of the forecast area, but even they should see an inch of rain. A Flood Watch has been issued for a portion of the forecast area...roughly along and SE of a line from Cameron to Opelousas. This includes Cameron, Vermilion, Jeff Davis, Acadia, Lafayette, St. Landry, St. Martin, & Iberia Parishes. The rest of the forecast area isn't currently under a Flood Watch at this time, but this could certainly change overnight depending on where the heavy rain axis sets up. Precipitation chances are maxed out through Thursday, and this system will only slowly move out of the area. A warm front trailing from the Western Gulf low will also be heading Northward overnight and Thursday. The final track of the low is still a bit uncertain with some model discrepancy noted, but it's final track will ultimately dictate where the heaviest rain, and potential for severe weather will be. Severe weather doesn't appear to be an issue across the forecast area at this point, as the surface low should remain over the nearshore waters before pushing into SE Louisiana. The pressure gradient will also be a key factor in the forecast. Winds will increase in response to a strengthening Gulf low, and speeds will exceed 25 mph at times late tonight and Thursday. The primary direction will be from the NE around the circulation of the low. The track of the low will result in the forecast area remaining in the cool sector, thus helping to limit severe weather as I previously mentioned. However, it should be noted that instability will increase late tonight through Thursday morning, and some thunderstorms will be possible. The low will make its closest approach to the forecast area between sunrise and noon on Thursday, and this is when the heaviest rain should occur. It is hard to pinpoint exactly who will get the heaviest rain, but it should be somewhere in the Southern half of the forecast area. While rainfall totals have been below normal for the year so far, it has been an incredibly wet fall and winter thus far, and this combined with widespread dead vegetation across the area will aid in the flooding threat. It will remain quite raw as well when you throw temperatures into the equation. Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid 40s, while Thursday highs only top out in the lower 50s at best. It is very common in this pattern to see a very small diurnal range when widespread clouds and showers are expected. Conditions will be monitored for further revisions for flood watches, etc. Rain will only slowly taper off Thursday, and I would expect to keep raining past the evening rush hour. However, the heaviest rain should taper off by then with a return of mostly light rain by that time as the low pulls away. It isn't entirely out of the realm of possibility that some locations may receive more than 5" of rain between tonight and tomorrow night.

Conditions improve some for Thursday night as the "Cajun Nor'Easter" pulls away. Rain chances will continue for the overnight hours as some wrap-around moisture will be present. Mostly light rain and/or intermittent drizzle is expected. It will seasonably cool as well with lows dropping into the mid 40s once again. The chance for some light rain and drizzle will greet us on Friday, but conditions will continue to improve as drier air filters in thanks to an area of high pressure building into the region. I will keep rain chances confined to the morning hours at this time, however, cloudy skies should hang tough throughout the day Friday with the presence of a pesky low-level stratus deck. One reason why it will take the rain so long to vacate the area is the driving force behind this system, and that is a cut off low over the Desert SW. This low will not push through the area until Friday. There really has been much change in the forecast philosophy since Monday's forecast package for this same time frame. Models are in fair agreement on this solution. There really isn't a cold front associated with this Gulf storm, however, some colder air will filter into the region in its wake thanks to a Northerly flow at the surface. This will help to pull down some colder air over the snow covered ground to our North. However, it won't be terribly cold, but it will certainly be coat weather. It will quite damp as well. The wrap-around moisture will keep humidity values high and leave plenty of boundary layer moisture in place for a good portion of Friday. High pressure will build into the region from the Red River Valley by Friday night, and skies will clear. The high looks like it will be strong enough to give the Subtropical Jet Stream a temporary nudge Southward into the Gulf. Thus, I expect that once skies clear Friday night, they will stay that way through Saturday and into Super Bowl Sunday. Temperatures will remain on the chilly side, with an overnight low in the upper 30s to near 40 for Saturday morning while Sunday morning will be colder with high pressure right overhead at that time. Minimum temperatures will be at or below freezing across the Northern half of the forecast area with 30s area wide. A low of around 34 seems feasible for the Lake Charles area. Saturday maximums should be in the mid 50s, while the maximum for Sunday should be in the mid 50s as well. Lower 60s are normal for the first week of February.

There's some big ball game on Sunday, right? The Super Bowl of course, featuring our New Orleans Saints vs. the Indianapolis Colts. The weather here for the big day looks great, but the high clouds will likely return during the day as the STJ remains active, and we will have to contend with that on Monday.High temperatures should be in the low to mid 50s. Any plans you may have for Super Bowl Sunday. As for the game site itself in Miami, the weather looks great there too with clear skies and pleasant temperatures in the 60s. The Colts will need to watch out for a strong Brees, Shockey waves, and Colston fronts. There will be a nip in the air for Super Bowl Sunday, so perhaps some Colt Gumbo is in order. Clouds will begin to increase Sunday night as the active Subtropical Jet Stream continues. Rain chances will return to the forecast on Monday ahead of a strong cold front. The same pattern will repeat itself once again with yet another Gulf low expected. Rain chances will be back into the likely category by Monday afternoon. A return flow of Gulf air is expected as well out ahead of the approaching cold front. Therefore, a decent warm up is expected. Highs should reach and possibly exceed 60. No severe weather is expected Monday, but some thunderstorms certainly can't be ruled out with instability in place. Monday morning lows should be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. This system should be a much faster mover than the current one. Rainfall amounts should be far less than we expect for the next 24 hours. The surface low should track much further to the South than the current one, thus limiting the heavy rain threat. The best chance of rain should come overnight Monday as the strong front works through. There will be some rain around at this time, than could possibly hamper some Saints Super Bowl celebrations, though I doubt even some rain will dampen anyone's spirit.

The rain chances will continue into Tuesday before much improved weather is noted. This will be a fairly strong front with origins from Canada. It will mark a pattern shift for the forecast area as already unseasonably cool weather is replaced with much below normal temperatures. Rain chances and windy conditions will be the dominant weather features for Tuesday behind the front. Rain will be possible mainly during the morning as CAA takes over. Temperatures will likely stay in the 40s throughout the day. Clearing will occur late as high pressure builds in. This will pave the way for freezing temperatures area wide by the end of the forecast period on day 7. Morning lows should be down into the mid 20s to near freezing across the area under clear skies. An offshore flow will be present with Canadian high pressure building in. Afternoon highs on day 7 should remain well below normal with 40s expected. It will be quite cold on Tuesday evening for the big Saints parade in New Orleans, but it should be dry. Wind chills will be a factor on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as the pressure gradient creates strong winds over the area. You can expect wind chills well down into the 20s by Tuesday night. Winter is certainly not over, and we will be reminded of that in the wake of Monday night's front. Beyond the forecast period, it looks to remain cold. The active El Nino pattern will continue with another wet system in here over Valentine's and Mardi Gras weekend. It will remain on the cool side with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. during this time. Specific timing and other vital information regarding these type of systems will be become available as the time frame of interest gets closer, but as I always say you have to watch for trends. The established trend that we've seen for much of the fall and winter so far looks to be in full force beyond the forecast period, so we'll go with that for now. Stay tuned!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  45/50  43/51  39/56  100 100 40 30 0 0
LFT   44/52  42/50  38/55  100 100 50 30 0 0
BPT   45/49  44/53  40/56  100 100 40 30 0 0
AEX  41/45  40/48  35/53  100 100 40 30 0 0
POE  41/45  40/48  36/54  100 100 40 30 0 0
ARA  46/55  45/53  40/55  100 100 50 30 0 0


*Lake Wind Advisory in effect through Thursday.*

*Flood Watch in effect through Thursday for Cameron, Jeff Davis, Acadia, Lafayette, Vermilion, St. Landry, St. Martin, & Iberia Parishes.*

Tonight..Rain and a few thunderstorms. Rain heavy at times. Low 45. NE 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.

Thursday...Rain and a few thunderstorms. Rain heavy at times. Localized flooding possible. 2-4" of rain expected. Windy. High 50. NNE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. Low 43. North wind 15 mph.

Friday...Continued Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. High 51. North wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Decreasing Cloudiness and Cold. Becoming Clear by Midnight. Low 39. North wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday...Sunny. High 56. North wind 10 mph.


Thursday 2/4/10 Daily Planner

7a.m.

Weather: Rain
Temp: 45
Chance of Rain: 100%
Wind: NE 17

Noon

Weather: Rain
Temp: 48
Chance of Rain: 100%
Wind: NE 21

5p.m.

Weather: Light Rain
Temp: 49
Chance of Rain: 70%
Wind: N 18


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Thursday
2-4-10

Low: 45
High: 50
Precip: 100%
Wind: NNE 20-25


Friday
2-5-10

Low: 43
High: 51
Precip: 30%
Wind: N 10-15


Saturday
2-6-10

Low: 39
High: 56
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10


Sunday
2-7-10
Super Bowl

Low: 34
High: 56
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 10


Monday
2-8-10

Low: 42
High: 59
Precip: 60%
Wind: SE/NNW 15-20


Tuesday
2-9-10

Low: 43
High: 47
Precip: 40%
Wind: NNW 15-20


Wednesday
2-10-10

Low: 28
High: 45
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 20-30


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory.*

Tonight...East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet after midnight. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.

Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Friday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Potent Pacfic Mid-Week Misery...Vast Improvement for "Super Bowl" Weekend...

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Today was Groundhog Day. The little furry prognosticator saw his shadow, which typically makes 6 more weeks of winter. However, make of it what you will...it was cloudy and there was snow around this morning. The shadow that Phil casted was likely as a result of all the camera lights et. al. More often than not, Phil sees his shadow, so put little stock into this forecast. That's why here closer to home, we have a nutria from New Iberia...that is one, Mr. Pierre C. Shadeaux! Pierre didn't see his shadow thanks to all the clouds and fog this morning. Therefore, that means we should have an early spring here. I think we all know that the whole 6 more weeks of winter idea hardly ever comes to fruition around these parts, and I think I'm going to have to side with Pierre on this one...

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Today was not a bad day with some intervals of sunshine late this morning through early afternoon. This was after some morning fog and intermittent drizzle. Clouds returned mid-late afternoon in advance of the mid-week storm as the title suggests. Temperatures today were seasonal with highs reaching the low to mid 60s with a little more sunshine than originally expected...no complaints there I'm sure. Sunshine is going to be nowhere to be found the next couple of days. Tonight's weather will be benign with just overcast conditions expected in advance of the strong system. Cloud cover will negate full cooling potential, but seasonal temperatures are expected with minimums in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Fog should not be as much of an issue tonight. You can already see our next weather maker on the water vapor imagery tonight.

Wednesday will certainly start dry with just cool and overcast conditions. A strong upper level impulse embedded in the active Subtropical Jet Stream will be moving around the base of a Western trough, and be approaching the area Wednesday. Isentropic lift (overrunning) will increase as the system comes into West Texas and added moisture from the STJ. The energetic STJ and the approaching short wave will result in the same scenario we have seen so many times already this season...Western Gulf cyclogenesis. This will occur late in the day Wednesday. Rain is ongoing tonight across South Texas stretching up towards San Antonio and over to Corpus Christi. This area of rain will intensify and expand overnight and on Wednesday morning as the system approaches from the SW. Rain should be encroaching on Houston before noon, and head our way for the afternoon hours. Moisture levels will gradually increase throughout the day, and rain should begin to move into the forecast area by late afternoon Wednesday. Rain chances will increase from nearly nothing in the morning,  to the likely category by the evening hours. A few spotty showers could occur as early as lunch time, but more widespread showers should begin around afternoon drive time. It will remain cool with highs in the mid 50s at best. The weather worsens Wednesday night as the system conglomerates over the Western Gulf, and a warm front trails from the surface low and lifts slowly NE through the night. Instability increases as well on Wednesday night as a strong low-level Jet moves over the area in response to the advancing system. Thus, some elevated convection will be possible. Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night and Thursday. Severe weather is not expected due to the progged track of the surface low. It will move from off the Lower Texas Coast slowly NE towards SE Louisiana. It will stay just offshore of SW Louisiana, thus limiting any severe threat to the coastal waters. The heavy rain threat will not be limited by any means, however. This is the type of system that will produce significant rainfall amounts, and this is not exactly good news. Model data suggests widespread amounts of 2-4" across the area from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals will be tempered from North to South across the area. Lesser amounts will occur from Toledo Bend to Marksville with amounts closer to 2" in this region, while 3-4" amounts seem likely along the I-10 corridor from Beaumont to Lake Charles to Lafayette. Isolated amounts over 4" are possible especially near the coast, and in Acadiana. This corresponds with the areas that will be closest to the track of the surface low. Localized flooding of urban areas and poor drainage areas is likely from Wednesday night through Thursday. Rain will become widespread by sunset Wednesday evening, and while it will be light initially, it will gradually get heavier overnight. It should rain all night Wednesday night, and throughout the day Thursday as the low slowly works up the coast. It will take a while for this system to get out of here, and it may seem like we'll need to call Noah before the day is over on Thursday. Rain will be heaviest from around midnight Thursday until about noon Thursday, before a slow improvement is noted. It will likely rain for at least 24 hours straight. Don't be surprised to here a few rumbles of thunder late Wednesday night and/or Thursday due to the increased instability that will be present. Any deviation of the track of the surface low further to the North, would increase prospects of severe weather, but confidence is high enough at this point that this will not occur, and that this forecast is strictly a rain forecast. Rain chances will be maxed out for Wednesday night and Thursday period. On top of all the rain, it will be cool & miserable as well. Temperatures will drop back into the mid to upper 40s on Wednesday night, and only warm up to near 50 at most on Thursday. Basically, this will be like a Cajun "Nor'Easter".  Winds will increase in earnest by Wednesday night as the low strengthens and approaches. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the forecast area, and make for rough conditions in the offshore waters. NE winds over 20 mph at times will be possible by Thursday. This whole mess finally begins to pull away by late Thursday, and at that time rain chances will be tapered downward finally.

Rain chances will be carried over into Friday morning as I still expect sufficient wrap-around moisture to be in place in the wake of the low. Drier air will only slowly filter into the region, and at the mid and upper levels thus keeping overrunning and a temperature inversion going for Friday. This will keep clouds and rain in the forecast with cool conditions on Thursday night. Minimums should be around normal in the lower 40s. There really isn't a cold front associated with this system, but some cooler air will filter into the region in the wake of the system on Friday in response to a low-level NW flow. Rain chances should finally completely be taken out of the forecast by Friday afternoon as drier air takes over in all levels of the atmosphere, and boundary layer moisture will decrease significantly at that time. The clouds will hang tough, however, and should be around for the balance of the day. Temperatures will struggle as a result of this, and the weak CAA over the area, thus highs should struggle to make 50 once again. It will certainly be another raw February Day. Finally, by Friday night skies should clear, but not entirely most likely as I mentioned last night. The STJ will remain very active with lots of high cirrus clouds streaming from SW to NE over the Gulf and into our area. Skies should clear out enough that temperatures will drop off quite nicely as we head into Saturday morning. Upper 30s and lower 40s are expected area wide on Saturday, however, it should remain above freezing since the air behind this system isn't terribly cold. The high clouds will filter the sun from time to time on Saturday, but it should be a dry day and not half bad anyway compared to what we will endure the next couple of days. There may be times when skies are Mostly Sunny, but with an active Jet Stream I believe it won't be a clear weekend. I will re-evaluate that tomorrow. Saturday highs should be in the lower 50s, about 10 degrees below normal for early February. Chilly conditions continue for Saturday night with quiet weather on tap as high pressure will be in control. Lows heading into Super Bowl Sunday morning should be in the mid 30s once again. Sunday should be very similar to Saturday, except there may be more clouds by the afternoon hours with more STJ energy streaming across. It should be nice for the game if you have any outdoor plans to BBQ or whatever the case may be. The weather will be quiet then, but hopefully we as fans won't be. Geaux Saints! It may be prime for some Colt Gumbo or something like that since it will still be quite cool with highs topping out in the low to mid 50s. The period of below normal maximums will continue.

At the end of the forecast period for Monday and Tuesday of next week as well as for post-Super Bowl celebrations the weather will be changing once again. The pattern repeats itself with the very active Subtropical Jet continuing to be the dominant weather feature for the NW Gulf Coast. Clouds will lower and thicken Sunday night into Monday, and rain chances will return during the day on Monday as yet another perturbation in the flow rounds the base of a deeper Western trough, and moves towards our area. At this time, this disturbance doesn't look as robust as the one we will deal with over the next 36 hours, but it is a bit early in the game to know for sure. Rain chances will jump back into the likely category for Tuesday as the Gulf low moves through the SW Louisiana coastal waters. Models suggest this low will track further South in the Gulf, meaning that while widespread will be expected, it may remain on the light side. Nevertheless, overrunning will once again be present, but I expect there to be one significant difference. That is, the presence of a strong front with Arctic origins to move in following this system on Tuesday. No severe weather is expected, but the additional forcing and lifting could produce some thunderstorms. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will remain on the cool side with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s. The strong cold front will usher in a much colder air mass by the middle of next week, and we will likely see a freeze in the 10th-11th period, but just how cold it will be remains to be seen. The active weather pattern will continue through Mardi Gras. Hopefully, the rain won't hamper any Saints celebrations or Mardi Gras festivities.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  43/55  45/48  42/48  0 70 100 100 60 30
LFT   42/54  44/48  41/49  0 60 100 100 60 30
BPT   44/55  46/48  43/50  0 70 100 100 60 30
AEX  40/52  42/45  39/46  0 40 100 100 60 30
POE  41/52  42/46  40/46  0 50 100 100 60 30
ARA  44/54  47/51  44/49  0 60 100 100 60 30


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy. Low 43. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday...Cloudy with rain developing in the morning, and becoming likely in the afternoon. High 55. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday Night...Rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Windy. Rainfall heavy at times. Low 45. NE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.

Thursday...Windy w/ widespread rain & a few thunderstorms likely. Rainfall heavy at times. Localized flooding possible. Cold. High 48. NNE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%. Total rainfall amounts 2-4".

Thursday Night...Cloudy with rain likely in the evening, tapering off overnight. Low 42. North wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.

Friday...Cloudy and Cold with a 30% chance of rain. High 48. North wind 10-15 mph.


Wednesday 2/3/10 Daily Planner

7a.m.
Weather: Cloudy, Cool 
Temp: 43
Chance of Rain: 10%
Wind: N 8

Noon
Weather: Cloudy, Scattered Rain
Temp: 50
Chance of Rain: 40%
Wind: NE 12

5p.m.
Weather: Light Rain
Temp: 52
Chance of Rain: 70%
Wind: NE 15


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Wednesday
2-3-10

Low: 43
High: 55
Precip: 70%
Wind: NE 10-15


Thursday
2-4-10

Low: 45
High: 48
Precip: 100%
Wind: NNE 20-25
W.C.: 30s


Friday
2-5-10

Low: 42
High: 48
Precip: 30%
Wind: N 10-15
W.C.: 35-40


Saturday
2-6-10

Low: 39
High: 53
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 10


Sunday
2-7-10
Super Bowl

Low: 37
High: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Monday
2-8-10

Low: 42
High: 55
Precip: 40%
Wind: E 10


Tuesday
2-9-10

Low: 45
High: 48
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory.*

Tonight...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...East winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 6 feet after midnight. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...East winds 20 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain.

Friday...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of rain.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Pics from Up North...

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Good Morning!

While we were having a lot of rain at the end of last week, conditions were far far worse off to our North. Lots of snow and ice fell from Oklahoma across the Mid-South through Arkansas and Tennessee and over to the Carolinas. One of my good friends, and fellow meteorologist who lives in Arkansas, sent these pictures to me per my request. I thought I'd share them with all of you beings we don't get to see scenes like this very often.

All pictures courtesy of Charley Kelly.---Thanks, Charley

Charley lives in North Central Arkansas, and received 3" of snow.


-DM-

After a Murky Monday...Not Much Good News in the Weather Department This Week...

Monday, February 1, 2010
 
Who Dat! Who Dat! Geaux Saints! Complete this dream season by beating the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday in Miami!

I will have a special treat for y'all on Tuesday morning...some pics from a friend in Arkansas from last week's winter storm.

Also, I am adding another new feature tonight..."The Daily Planner". It'll give specific weather, temperatures, and winds at the most significant times of the day. This will hopefully help you plan your day better. If you would like to see more added to this, or any other feature added to the blog please feel free to let me know. "The Daily Planner" will be located between the zone forecast & the 7 day forecast.


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I can think of 2 songs to describe the weather today as we start this "hyped-up" work week..."Rainy Days and Mondays" by the Carpenters and "American Pie" by Don McLean, specifically the line that says...February made me shiver...

I can't wait for Sunday when our Saints battle the Colts, let's think about that this week to cheer us up, because the weather sure won't be cheerful until the weekend...

Let's get into some specifics...The persistent El Nino of the winter of 2009-10 continues. The latest customer in the never ending series of El Nino systems affected the area today, and resulted in February getting off to a wet start across the forecast area. A weak disturbance embedded in the Subtropical Jet Stream, and weak Gulf low moved up the coast today, and moisture levels increased overnight spreading moisture inland across the entire forecast area. The end result was a steady, nagging light rain and/or drizzle for most of the morning. A few sleet pellets fell at the onset of the precip due to relatively cold temperatures at the surface, and wet bulbing processes early on. The atmospheric column quickly moistened up changing all precip to rain for the duration of the event. Rainfall amounts were very light with rainfall totals generally 1/2" or less. Today's rainfall was the appetizer for this week. Temperatures were well below normal to start February 2010. Low temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 30s, while afternoon highs didn't make it to 50. The nagging rain and stiff wind made it feel very raw. The nemesis disturbance is gone now, and it will a quiet and dry night. Clouds will hang tough as the Subtropical Jet remains in place. The residual moisture in place and lighter surface winds may lead to the development of some fog, which could get quite dense late. No measurable precipitation is expected for the overnight hours, however, with the residual moisture in place some intermittent drizzle is possible. The overcast conditions will preclude much of a temperature drop overnight, but it will be chilly with temperatures near the seasonal averages from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday will likely turn out to be the best day of this work week as we'll be in between systems. Clouds will hang tough at least through the morning as the STJ continues streaming high clouds over the region. Any fog should dissipate by mid-morning, however, the fog  could be a problem for the morning commute as it will likely become dense along and south of I-10 after midnight. The fog and intermittent drizzle will come to a end by mid-morning. For the anticipated fog, the National Weather Service has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the portion of the forecast area along and south of I-10 until 10a.m. Tuesday. Some sunshine may occur in the afternoon as the clouds thin a bit, but it certainly won't be clear. The seasonably cold start will give way to a seasonal afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 across the area. The temporary quiet weather will continue for Tuesday night with another Mostly Cloudy and seasonably cool night. Fog should not be as much of a factor, but there could certainly be some. It looks like a foggy start to Groundhog Day, and it is doubtful that Pecan Island Pierre will see anything resembling a shadow. As for Phil in Pennsylvania, he may not see his shadow either as it should be cloudy with a chance of snow. Of course, shadow or no shadow, I don't put much stock into the little critter's forecast. It's just a fun thing to do on "Candlemas"...which is the halfway point of the astronomical winter season. Meteorological winter is in the home stretch now as we enter February. Meteorological spring begins March 1.

The weather goes downhill once again on Wednesday as the main course rolls in. The same scenario we've experienced so many times this season will rear its ugly head again. A robust short wave (disturbance) embedded in the predominantly zonal flow. The STJ energy will interact and lead to Western Gulf cyclogenesis during the day Wednesday. The brief drying at the surface will gradually end. The mid and upper levels will moisten up through the day as boundary layer moisture increases in advance of the strong system. The day should start dry, with rain overtaking the forecast area by mid-late afternoon. It is certainly possible that some scattered light showers or sprinkles will occur in the morning, but at this time the widespread rain should wait until after lunch. The advancing low will produce classic "overrunning" conditions across the area. Widespread rain will occur, and it will gradually get heavier overnight Wednesday as the low continues lifting NE towards the SE Texas/SW Louisiana coastline. As usual, the ultimate track of the low will dictate how much rain the area will receive, but certainly all of us will receive significant rainfall with this next customer. Heavy rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday night through Thursday as instability values increase, and the isentropic ascent continues to strengthen in response to the low. Rain chances will nearly max out on Wednesday night, and be maxed out on Thursday. This will be a very strong system, and thankfully at this point the low should track just to our SE and remain just offshore keeping the area in the cool sector. Any northward deviation of the surface low would place portions of the forecast area in the warm sector, thus resulting in a severe weather threat. At this time, severe weather looks unlikely, though certainly some thunderstorms are likely. Heavy rainfall will be the main threat with this system, and rainfall amounts will likely exceed an inch across the entire area with the heaviest amounts near the coast. At present it looks like average rainfall amounts will be between 2-3" in the Lake Charles area, and possibly as high as 5" near the coast. The low and associated short wave will only slowly move Eastward on Thursday, so expect the rain to continue throughout the day. The worst of the weather should occur from overnight Wednesday through early afternoon on Thursday before slow improvement occurs. Some flooding will be possible with the expectant heavy rainfall, with localized urban and small stream flooding the main flood threats. A stiffening pressure gradient in response to the intensifying low over the Gulf will result in strong winds across the area as well. Winds will gust over 25 mph at times from the NE around the circulation of the low. Adding insult to injury, will be the chilly temperatures. There won't be much of a diurnal range on Wednesday or Thursday with the clouds, rain, and wind. Lows will be in the 40s which is seasonable, however, highs will remain will below normal struggling to reach the 50s each day. Conditions should begin improving Thursday Night, but rain chances will still be in the forecast as wrap-around moisture keeps the overrunning going as the mid and upper levels remain moist.

 As we head into Super Bowl Weekend, proudly featuring our Saints, the weather will be much better, but maybe not quite "super". The improvement takes full effect on Friday, though I will retain rain chances for Friday morning as the wrap-around moisture hangs in for a time. Clouds will likely hang tough much of the day as a temperature inversion similar to that we experienced this past weekend remains in place. This will likely keep a low level stratus deck over the area to shut out the sun for one more day. The chill of early February will continue with lows around 40 once again, and highs struggling to reach 50 once again. Finally, a welcomed area of high pressure will build in Friday night allowing skies to clear as dry air filters into all levels of the atmosphere. As skies clear, temperatures will be quite cold heading into Saturday Morning, however, certainly not anywhere near record levels. The coldest locations of the forecast area may flirt with freezing on Saturday Morning, but average lows for Saturday should be in the mid to upper 30s. It is possible that we could completely clear out on Saturday, but with a very active Subtropical Jet Stream this doesn't seem likely. High clouds will likely continue streaming over the area, shielding the sun from time to time. While clear skies can't be guaranteed for the weekend, it should be dry.

Benign weather will continue for the Saturday Night and Sunday period with more high cloudiness from time to time. Seasonably cool temperatures will continue for Super Bowl Sunday with maximums possibly a tad warmer in the mid to upper 50s, depending on how much cloud cover is prevalent. This, after morning lows in the upper 30s once again. Quiet weather is expected for the big game on Sunday, and this will not be an ordinary Super Bowl Sunday in the state of Louisiana. The weather will cooperate for any plans you may have for the Super Bowl. Who Dat! Changes will occur once again as we get into Monday, depending on the outcome of the game not many people will notice! A much weaker embedded short wave will move through on Monday. It will be enough to increase moisture once again, and bring back some rain chances. However, we'll focus in on this system after the mid-week system is gone. The mid-week system will certainly be the highlight (lowlight) of the week as far as the weather is concerned. Monday's temperatures will continue to be on the cool side with highs struggling to get to the 50s once again with the added clouds and showers. At this time, the rain on Monday should be light, and shouldn't be enough to put a damper on any Saints celebrations.
Beyond the forecast period, the active El Nino weather pattern and unseasonably cool temperatures will continue through Valentine's Day and Mardi Gras. Timing of any systems to follow is uncertain, but the idea is that a rain maker will move in every 2-3 days is certainly on the table. I still believe winter is not quite over yet, meaning I believe we'll see another freeze or two before we transition to Spring.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  40/58  43/53  45/51  10 10 10 60 90 100
LFT   40/57  42/54  44/50  10 10 10 50 80 100
BPT   42/60  44/55  46/52  10 10 10 60 90 100
AEX  36/56  39/51  41/47  10 10 10 50 70   90
POE  37/57  39/51  41/48  10 10 10 50 70   90
ARA  41/59  44/54  45/53  10 10 10 50 80 100


*Dense Fog Advisory in effect Tuesday Morning from 3a.m. to 10a.m. along and south of I-10.*

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Dense Fog after midnight. Intermittent Drizzle. Low 40. NE 5-10 mph wind.

Tuesday...Areas of Dense Fog and Intermittent Drizzle in the morning. Fog dissipating by mid-morning, otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy. High 58. North wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Mostly Cloudy. Low 43. Light North wind.

Wednesday...Cloudy and Cool with rain becoming likely in the afternoon. Scattered morning showers. Rain heavy at times late. High 53. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Wednesday Night...Rain and a few thunderstorms likely. Windy. Rain heavy at times. Low 45. NE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.

Thursday...Windy with rain and thunderstorms likely. 2-3" of rain possible. High 51. NE wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 100%.


Tuesday 2/2/10 Daily Planner

7a.m.-
Weather: Fog & Drizzle, Cool
Temp: 40
Wind: NE 6

Noon-
Weather: P/C-M/C
Temp: 55
Wind: N 8

5p.m.-
Weather: : P/C
Temp: 56
Wind: N 7


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Tuesday
2-2-10
Groundhog Day

Low: 40
High: 58
Precip: 10%
Wind: N 5-10


Wednesday
2-3-10

Low: 43
High: 53
Precip: 60%
Wind: NE 10-15


Thursday
2-4-10

Low: 45
High: 51
Precip: 100%
Wind: NE 20-25


Friday
2-5-10

Low: 40
High: 50
Precip: 30% AM
Wind: N 10-15


Saturday
2-6-10

Low: 36
High: 53
Precip: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Sunday
2-7-10
Super Bowl Sunday

Low: 37
High: 55
Precip: 0%
Wind: NE 10


Monday
2-8-10

Low: 42
High: 52
Precip: 40%
Wind: NE 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

*Dense Fog Advisory.*

Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Areas of dense fog. Intermittent drizzle.

Tuesday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Intermittent drizzle in the morning.

Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.

Wednesday...East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon. A chance of rain.

Wednesday Night...East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 feet. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:   11:05a.m.    11:42p.m.
High:     4:00a.m.      4:34p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

   168.53'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, February 1, 2010

Low:               39
Normal Low:   42
Record Low:   15-1951
High:               49
Normal High:   62
Record High:   80-1950

Precipitation:
 Today:                          0.06"
Month to Date:              0.06"
Normal Month to Date: 0.15"
Year to Date:                3.41"
Normal Year to Date:   5.67"
Record:                        4.14"-1952


Sunrise Tuesday:    7:03a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:     5:51p.m.

Tuesday Hunting Times:  6:33a.m.-6:21p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Tuesday February 2

Full Moon- Tuesday February 9

Last Quarter- Tuesday February 16

New Moon- Thursday February 25


This Date in Weather History...February 1: 1951...The greatest ice storm in U.S. History occurred carrying over from the end of January. It produced a glaze of up to 4" thick from Texas to Pennsylvania. It resulted in 25 deaths, 500 serious injuries, & $100 million damage. The hardest hit area from this ice storm was Tennessee. Communications and utilities were interrupted for a week to 10 days.


Did You Know...There is a man in the U.S. who has survived being struck by lightning 7 times! Roy C. Sullivan, lost his big toenail in 1942, his eyebrows in 1969, and had his hair set on fire twice. The other 3 times he suffered slight burns. Many people are not as lucky as Mr. Sullivan. Thousands of deaths have been attributed to lightning over the years. You should never try your luck when it comes to lightning.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-