Stormy End to the Week, Much Cooler but Still Wet for the Weekend

Thursday, October 8, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Unseasonable warmth and humid conditions continued as advertised today as a pronounced onshore flow continued off the Gulf as we await the advancing trough. Shower and thunderstorm activity was limited during the afternoon hours thanks to some drier air in the mid and upper levels. This "cap" is still present tonight, and therefore, no mention of rain is expected as the offshore flow continues. It will be non-eventful night across the area with Partly to Mostly Cloudy and the unseasonable warmth in place. Pressure differences created by the advancing trough will keep winds from dying off as they usually do overnight. This will preclude the development of any fog, and keep enough mixing going in the atmosphere that no more than a low-cloud deck should be present. While it will be quiet here overnight, we turn our attention upstream for a harbinger of things to come.

At present, the front is in transit from NW to SE across the Mid West and Red River Valley. Heavy rainfall with localized flooding and some severe weather has occurred today and tonight from Texas to Missouri. Severe Weather Watch boxes are currently posted along and out ahead of the front from the Rio Grande Valley up through the Ohio River Valley. A pre-frontal MCS (squall line) developed during the day today, and is still currently active at this time. It is advancing to the SE as the trough and attendant cold front dig further South as well. The weather around here will remain rather benign for the early part of Friday with no rain expected across the area until the afternoon hours, most likely from around 3p.m. and on. It will be windy and Mostly Cloudy with above normal temperatures once again for the day on Friday with highs in the mid 80s. The MCS will move into the Northern portions of the state during the morning hours, and continue to move SE into our area in the afternoon, however, as the front moves SE the upper level supporting winds driving the front will not be near as strong, and it will be bumping up against the persistent SW flow over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, the front will be in the process of slowing down, therefore, the associated MCS will be as well. This means that a heavy rainfall event seems likely. It remains to be seen if we will have a severe weather threat across the forecast area, but that possibility exists as well. Some very potent dynamics have been generated by this system, and with extra energy from the Jet Stream in an El Nino pattern, some severe weather is possible. The main threat at this time looks to be damaging winds, but hail and an isolated tornado are possible as well. The greatest threat for severe weather should remain off towards our North, but as it stands at the moment the SPC has the entire forecast area highlighted for a Slight Risk of Severe Weather for Day 2 (Friday). Stay tuned for more on this.

Regardless of any severe weather, rain and thunderstorms are inevitable for later in the day Friday through Friday night, and the timing of this is very unfortunate with all the High School Football games. The current timing for the worst of the weather suggested by the forecast models looks to be in a time frame of 6-9p.m. Lightning will be a problem, and many of the games could be delayed. It will likely rain for several hours with a large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms trailing behind the MCS. Some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop out ahead of the complex of storms as the system feeds on the highly moist environment and pulls in additional moisture from the Gulf. Heavy rainfall is the most significant weather problem that I expect for our area with this system. Average rainfall amounts as shown by Thursday evening model guidance shows 2-4" of rain area wide from Friday afternoon through Saturday night. The front will slowly move through the forecast area between sunset Friday and sunrise Saturday, and it will turn sharply cooler behind it. It will be windy before and after frontal passage, but winds will shift from onshore to offshore with as the boundary passes. Overnight lows will be 10-15 cooler than that of recent nights with lows well down into the 60s by Saturday morning. While the front will put an end to the unseasonable warmth, it will not put an end to the rain chances. Here's a look at the SPC's Day 2 Outlook:

The forecast for the weekend certainly leaves something to be desired for those who want some of that picture perfect low-humidity October weather that often follows these fronts this time of year.. An overrunning situation is almost certain behind the front as the front continues to slow down, and eventually stall over the Gulf of Mexico in response to the strong SW flow. A secondary push of cooler, drier air will remain North of the area as the winds aloft remain parallel to the frontal boundary. This never bodes well for beautiful weather across the area. Overcast conditions will remain firmly entrenched, and rain chances will remain high for the Saturday forecast period as well. Rain could be heavy at times, but overall mostly a light rain or drizzle is expected. Rain will come and go, and it won't be a situation where it rains all day. Disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft will ride up along the front ejecting out of South Texas, and bring rain to the area. Rain will be likely throughout the day, but the best chance will be during the morning with a break possible during the afternoon only to see another period of rain Saturday night. That's right, looks like it's gonna be wet for the big LSU-Florida game in Baton Rouge, at the very least a wet field. I would suggest bringing the rain gear with you along with your "Gator" traps. Geaux Tigers!!! Not to be forgotten, McNeese plays on the road this weekend as well vs. SFA up in Nacogdoches, TX, and the forecast is much of the same up there. Though, the chance of rain will be less since they will be further removed from the stalled front. Geaux Cowboys!!! The temperature part of the forecast is the good news as it will be much cooler in the wake of this shallow cold front. Highs will struggle to reach 70 on Saturday, and at this time I am forecasting a maximum somewhere in the low 70s. Brisk Northerly winds will make it feel like it's in the 60s throughout the day, so with the rain it will certainly not be the best looking Saturday. One of these weekends, Mother Nature is going to pay us back you know.

The Saturday night through Sunday period will continue to a cool, overcast period with intermittent rain and/or drizzle likely Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Sunday, rain remains likely and may actually be heavy at times if models are correct in the idea of cyclogenesis along the stalled front in the Gulf. This would occur off the coast of South Texas, and traverse the front from SW to NE. This would allow for moisture over the Gulf to be pulled Northward over the area keeping the rain chances in the forecast. The low will help to generate instability in the atmosphere thus resulting in the possibly of heavy rain and/or thunderstorms at times Sunday. An additional 1-2" of rain is possible Sunday, and this could certainly pose a flooding threat across the area by that time with grounds nearly saturated from recent rains and the warm, moist air that has dominated this week. The cool air at the surface will remain in place with highs only in the mid 70s, still below the seasonable norm for the 2nd week of October. Rain will be more likely from late morning through mid afternoon Sunday before tapering off.

How often do you see the weather improve just as its time to go back to work or school on Monday? Not this time! Monday's weather offers a continuance of the weekend weather pattern with rain off and on throughout the day as the overrunning effect continues with the front wavering one way or the other in the Gulf. The cool air mass in place from the weekend will begin to moderate somewhat as the strong Canadian high pressure slides to the NE out of the Ozarks and into the Ohio Valley. Near average temperatures are expected for both lows and highs. Improvement takes place for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame as the winds at the surface take on a Southerly component to match the upper level winds in between cold fronts. The forecast models waver on how much clearing we'll see, and if we'll see any rain chances at all. At this point, it seems logical to keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast with a wording of Partly Cloudy for sky conditions. Temperatures are also a crapshoot at this time as some model output shows temperatures returning to above normal levels, while some keep the moderation more subtle. I will blend these forecasts and keep temperatures around seasonable values for both highs and lows by the end of the forecast period. The next cold front doesn't look to affect the area until just beyond this forecast period. Stay tuned for all the latest on the severe weather and heavy rainfall potential on Friday.

Tropics: Quiet. Henri, as forecast, had a very short life in the open Atlantic near the Lesser Antilles. He has fizzled out completely tonight with nothing more than an area of cloudiness to represent his remnants. The highly sheared environment over the Atlantic ingested Henri, and we can write his obituary. A tropical wave in the Southern Caribbean is not expected to develop as it is very close to the NE coast of Venezuela, and will interact with that country on Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend as it pulls away from South America into the middle of the Caribbean, but like many of its predecessors this season it will ultimately suffer the same fate and run into a highly sheared environment.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  78/86    63/71    60/74   10 80 100 70 60 60

LFT   77/87    63/72    59/73   10 70 100 80 60 60

BPT   79/85    62/70   60/75   10 80 100 80 60 50

AEX  76/84    58/68   55/70   10 90 100 80 60 40

POE  76/85    59/69   56/70   10 90 100 80 60 40

ARA  80/87   64/73   62/73    10 70 100 80 70 70

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Unseasonably Warm. Low 78. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy and Windy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely in the afternoon. Heavy rainfall likely and Damaging winds possible. High 86. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.

Friday Night...Cloudy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Isolated severe storms possible with damaging wind the main threat. Heavy rainfall likely with 2-4' of rainfall expected. Turning Cooler overnight. Low 63. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty by midnight. Chance of rain 100%.

Saturday...Cloudy with Rain Likely. Much Cooler. High 71. North wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Saturday Night...Cloudy and Cool with Rain Likely. Low 60. NE wind 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Sunday...Cloudy with Rain and a Few Thunderstorms Likely. High 74. NE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Friday

10-9-09

Low: 76

High: 86

Precip: 80%

Wind: SSW 15-20

Saturday

10-10-09

Low: 63

High: 71

Precip: 70%

Wind: N 10-15

Sunday

10-11-09

Low: 60

High: 74

Precip: 60%

Wind: NE 10-15

Monday

10-12-09

Low: 62

High: 78

Preci:p: 40%

Wind: E 10-15

Tuesday

10-13-09

Low: 66

High: 82

Precip: 30%

Wind: SE 10-15

Wednesday

10-14-09

Low: 65

High: 80

Precip: 20%

Wind: SW 10-15

Thursday

10-15-09

Low: 63

High: 81

Precip: 20%

Wind: SW 10-15

...Marine...

Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Isolated showers.

Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening...then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Saturday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...East winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tide Data...

Friday Tides...

Low: 12:54p.m.
High:   1:56a.m.


Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Low:                81
Normal Low:    61
Record Low:    40-1952
High:                91
Normal High:   83
Record High:    96-1911

Rainfall:
Today:                            0.00"
Month to Date:               3.10"
Normal Month to Date:  1.17"
Year to Date:               50.08"
Normal Year to Date:  45.21"
Record:                         1.63"

Sunrise Friday:   7:11a.m.
Sunset Friday:    6:48p.m.


Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-

More Like July in October For Now, but Strong Cold Front On Track for Friday to Usher in Octoberlike Weather...

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A warm, moist air mass remains in place across the forecast area tonight as the persistent SWly flow aloft continues. Another cold front stalled out near the area today, before retreating Northward to North Louisiana as a warm front tonight. Shower and thunderstorm activity was limited across the area today, due to a bit of drier air in the mid and upper levels, thus we experienced a bit more sunshine that was actually predicted. With a rather uneventful day weather wise, it was very warm and humid with high temperatures above normal, and more representative of July than October. Highs across the area were near 90, today, roughly 5-10 degrees above the normal for early October. It will remain quiet across the area tonight with the warm and humid air mass remaining firmly entrenched. The warm front will continue to push back into Southern Arkansas by morning. With the warm air in place, lows will be in the mid to upper 70s across the area, and locations across the Northern half of the forecast area may actually see rising temps overnight as the somewhat cooler, drier air in those locations retreats. Generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected with no mention of showers, however, with copious amounts of low level moisture in place, some areas of fog can't be ruled out.

For Thursday, hot and humid conditions are expected once again as we remain under the influence of a persistent onshore flow. Another, much stronger cold front, has developed across the Great Plains, and will be moving our direction at this time. The warm and humid air mass is what we can expect until this front arrives. A scattered shower or thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out on Thursday basically resulting from afternoon heating, quite similar to a mid-summer day. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail with maximum temperatures running well above normal once again near 90. Breezy conditions will develop as well in response to pressure differences associated with the forthcoming cold front. SE winds up to 15 mph in the afternoon are expected. Heat index values will also be a factor for Thursday, and these could exceed the 100 degree mark, so if you are outdoors use extreme caution...summer doesn't want to let go!!! Thursday night should be a quiet period as the warm and humid conditions continue, an isolated streamer shower or two can't be ruled out in the pre-frontal air mass. Low temperatures will be above normal again.

On Friday, the change occurs! The day will start relatively calm with the unseasonable warmth still in place as the front will be nearing a Dallas to Hot Springs line. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will prevail for the morning hours, and it will turn windy by afternoon as the Southerly flow intensifies as the front nears and energy from the Jet Stream ingests into the approaching trough. Rain chances will ramp up on Friday afternoon through Friday night as the front approaches and pushes through. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the boundary as it moves through the area, and a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will develop out of the front on Friday, and push through the area. At this time, it looks like the most likely time frame for the worst of the weather to arrive will be between 6p.m. Friday and 2a.m. Saturday. While the threat for severe weather looks marginal at best at this time, it can't be ruled out, but all in all I believe the severe weather threat will be to our North where better dynamics to support severe weather will be in place. Nevertheless, heavy rainfall is likely, and the front will be slowing down as it enters our area, so there is the possibility of storms training over certain areas. The majority of forecast models certainly latch onto this idea, and 2-4" of rain seems likely on Friday through Friday night. Friday will be the last unseasonably warm day for awhile with highs running in the mid 80s again. The timing of the front is unfortunate for all the High School Football games, but perhaps the worst of the storms will come through before the games or wait til after...we'll see!!! The strong cold front will push into the coastal waters overnight Friday, and in its wake winds will shift from onshore to offshore, and temperatures will turn much cooler just in time for the weekend, but is that the end of the rain???

I could answer this is one word, but you know I'm all about details...No, the front will not mark the end of the rain. High rain chances are expected to continue through at least Saturday morning. There is some discrepancies with the models as far as when the rain shuts off, or at least as to when rain chances will lessen. A period of overrunning is expected behind the front, so overcast conditions along with intermittent rain and drizzle. The front will stall out somewhere over the Gulf waters, while moisture hangs around above the surface with the extra push of dry air stalling out for a time to our NW. This will give us a very breezy and much cooler day on Saturday with maximums struggling to reach 70...believe it or not!!! Rain and a few thunderstorms are likely in the morning as the front continues to slow down and push offshore, but as more stable air filters in with the cooler air mass, the rain will taper off to periods of mainly light rain and drizzle by afternoon. Clouds will hang tough all day. There's a chance that rain chances will end entirely early on Saturday, but the consensus right now is to maintain them for a better part of the day. As the drier air above the surface slowly punches in by Saturday night, rain chances will decrease to the slight category for the overnight hours. With the El Nino, and typical overrunning processes that occur around these parts in this pattern, I must retain rain chances for this period as well. Much cooler air will continue to infiltrate the region with lows well down into the 60s on Saturday night, we would likely see 50s if skies were clear, but this is not forecast at this time. It will feel brisk with a strong Northerly flow in place at the surface.

Some improvement is noted for Sunday, but overall the clouds should hang tough as the front runs into strong SW winds over the Central and Eastern Gulf. This will keep this front in place, and keep the drier air lodged to our North. Periods of light rain or drizzle are expected for Sunday as well as minor disturbances and energy embedded within the Subtropical Jet Stream move across the area behind the stalled front. Some peaks of sunshine are in the offing as well as strong Canadian high pressure tries to build in from the North. Afternoon highs will manage the mid 70s at best as we remain in a Cold Air Advection (CAA) set up. A dip in the Northern branch of the Jet Stream early next week should allow for an additional cold front to push through the area on Monday. This may help to squeeze out all the leftover moisture, enough so to call for some rain chance, though no widespread rain or thunderstorms are expected. This front should finally clear us out, and temperatures will drop a bit more. Some modification is expected ahead of this front for Monday though, with highs near 80.

High pressure settles in for the end of the forecast period on Tuesday and Wednesday, and this should set the stage for the nicest weather so far this fall season. Crisp, cool October mornings are in store for Tuesday and Wednesday with lows well down into the 50s, and highs in the mid 70s with sunny skies and low humidity...some of that October perfection we look forward to!!! The controlling high will slip East of the forecast area on Wednesday afternoon bringing back a subtle onshore flow, but this will be short lived as a re-enforcing cold front is expected just beyond this forecast period. At this time, that should occur on Thursday, and no rain is indicated at this time. That's a pattern that is more representative of October, as this is typically one of our driest months. The long range forecast at this time offers a smorgasbord of solutions, and one clear pattern is not established at this time. This inconsistency is typical in long range forecasts, but is elevated in an El Nino pattern.

Tropics: Last time we spoke, I mentioned the suspect "Grace". Well, what do you know...we have another named storm now!!! Though, this one is more legit, however, it will be short-lived due to the hostile environment that has dominated over the Atlantic this season. Henri, which was classified on Tuesday, is already on his death bed tonight. Tropical Storm Henri developed from the area of disturbed weather East of the Lesser Antilles. It peaked at 50 mph intensity early Tuesday morning, before it moved into a high shear environment to the NNE of the Lesser Antilles. Currently, Henri is a Tropical Depression with 35 mph winds, and is not expected to do much except bring some squally weather to the islands on Thursday, and the rest of the Caribbean on Friday, before fizzling out this weekend. Henri is no threat at all to the U.S.

A weak tropical wave off the NE coast of Venezuela may have some potential to develop further in the coming days, but development if any will be slow to occur, and this system will suffer the same fate as Henri with a highly sheared environment over the Caribbean. It is currently moving off to the WNW at 15-20 mph. Elsewhere, no tropical storm formation is expected through Friday.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH    77/91  76/86   63/71    10 30 20 80 80 70

LFT     76/92  76/87   62/72    10 30 20 70 80 80

BPT     79/92  77/85   64/71    10 30 30 80 70 60

AEX    71/93  74/82   59.68    10 20 40 80 60 40

POE    72/93   75/82  59/69    10 20 40 80 60 40

ARA   78/92   78/87  63/72     10 30 20 70 80 80

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog towards morning. Unseasonably Warm. Low 77. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Unseasonably Hot and Humid with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Continued Unseasonably Warm. Low 76. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday...Cloudy and Windy with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely during the afternoon. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the morning. Some severe weather and locally heavy rainfall possible late in the day. High 86. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Rainfall amounts 1-2". Chance of rain 80%.

Friday Night...Cloudy, Windy, and Turning Cooler with Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Some Severe Weather and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible. Low 63. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW by midnight. Chance of rain 80%.

Saturday...Mostly Cloudy, Windy, and Much Cooler with Rain and Embedded Thunderstorms Likely in the Morning, transitioning to mainly Light Rain or Drizzle in the Afternoon. High 71. NNW 15-20 mph and gusty, decreasing to 10-15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70%.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Thursday

10-8-09

Low: 77

High: 91

Precip: 30%

Wind: SSE 10-15

H.I.: 97-102

Friday

10-9-09

Low: 76

High: 86

Precip: 80%

Wind: SSE 15-20

Saturday

10-10-09

Low: 63

High: 71

Precip: 70%

Wind: NNW 10-20

Sunday

10-11-09

Low: 61

High: 74

Precip: 30%

Wind: NNE 10-15

Monday

10-12-09

Low: 65

High: 80

Precip: 40%

Wind: E 10-15

Tuesday

10-13-09

Low: 56

High: 73

Precip: 0%

Wind: NNW 10-15

Wednesday

10-14-09

Low: 53

High: 77

Precip: 0%

Wind: NE 5-10

...Marine...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Saturday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides...

Low: 11:56a.m.  11:55p.m.

High:   1:45a.m.    8:24p.m.

...Lake Charles Climate Summary....

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Low:                 77

Normal Low:    62

Record Low:    45-1964

High:                90

Normal High:   83

Record High:   95-1911

Rainfall:

Today:                            0.00"

Month to Date:               3.10"

Normal Month to Date:  1.04"

Year to Date:               50.08"

Normal Year to Date:  45.08"

Record:                         2.40"-1984

Sunrise Thursday:   7:11a.m.

Sunset Thursday:    6:50p.m.

Good night and God bless!

-DM-

Flustering Fronts Will Keep Fall Locked Up to Our North Until This Weekend...

Monday, October 5, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...An active El Nino weather pattern has been established across the country as we start a new work week. Another in a series of cold fronts moved through the area early this morning with some shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of it. A brief period of drier air moved in behind it, but the front promptly stalled just offshore this afternoon. The upper air pattern across our region is one that is zonal (W to E), and one that doesn't favor a very significant push of cool, dry air. As the fronts move into our area, they slow down, and as they move further south into the Gulf where a stronger unfavorable upper level flow exists, they stall out, and retreat Northward. This is what happened with the front that came through on Friday, and will occur again this time around, and again later this week. The front will retreat Northward across the forecast area tonight, and be along the Hwy. 190 corridor by sunrise Tuesday. Despite the retreating boundary, a quiet night is in store with very limited rain chances expected under Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies. I can't rule out an isolated shower or two as the front moves Northward as a warm front, and the warm moist air returns to the Southern portions of the area. A tricky temperature forecast is expected as the cooler, drier air is deeper across Northern portions of the area, and they should remain to the North of the boundary overnight. A wide range in temperatures in the morning is possible across the forecast area with mid 60 for Alexandria and Fort Polk and mid 70s at the coast.

On Tuesday, the warm front will continue to move further inland, and the warm moist air will eventually encompass the entire forecast area once again. A very warm and humid October day is expected with a summer forecast is expected. A chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms primarily due to the effects of daytime heating will be in the forecast...very similar to a July or August afternoon. High temperatures will be near 90. Some sunshine is expected with sky conditions ranging from Partly to Mostly Cloudy with an onshore flow throughout the day. Warm and humid overnight on Tuesday with an isolated shower or thunderstorm not out of the question. On Wednesday, another cold front moving out of the Great Plains will be moving into the forecast area. With the moist, unstable air mass in place, this will help to spark off showers and thunderstorms, and higher chances for shower and thunderstorm activity will be expected. This front like its predecessors will struggle to make it into the coastal waters before stalling out. It should do so, during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. With the increased rain chances, temperatures will be a shade cooler. For Thursday, another summer-like day is expected as the front from Wednesday retreats Northward as a warm front with the same synoptic pattern still in place. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected in the warm sector and mostly due to diurnal heating processes. Above normal temperatures are expected with readings near 90 once again.

On Friday, a change in the overall pattern is expected. A strong cold front, and associated deep trough will be approaching out of the Rockies, and will begin to affect the area by later in the day. The deep tropical air mass in place out ahead of this front will help to produce some scattered shower and thunderstorms activity for the early portion of the day. At the same time, ahead of the front, along the Red River Valley, energy from the Jet Stream and the sharpening trough will likely initiate a squall line, which will be moving to the SE throughout the day. Some severe weather is possible with this system, as is very common in an El Nino pattern, an out of season severe weather event isn't totally impossible. The best dynamics for the production of severe weather look to remain just North of the forecast area, but it's still a bit soon to tell for sure. Either way, thunderstorms are likely especially later in the day Friday through Friday night. The usual timing differences for the front by the forecast models exists right now. Storms may be slow moving out ahead of the front, which will also be slowing down as it moves into the area. A heavy rainfall event with several inches of rainfall is possible. Afternoon highs on Friday with the clouds and storms around will be cooler than that of Thursday, but still above normal in the mid 80s. Cooler and drier air will begin filtering into the region Friday night, though there is some question at this point whether or not we'll completely clear out for the weekend, but at the very least it at least looks like we'll finally see a prolonged period of fall-like weather.

For the weekend...cooler and drier is the word. At this time, I will maintain a slight chance of a shower on Saturday with clouds hanging tough during the day as a temperature inversion remains in place just above the surface. A pronounced offshore flow will be in place in the wake of the front, and high temperatures will likely not reach 80. A secondary front arriving Saturday night into Sunday will finally help to remove the lingering clouds behind the strong front on Friday, and right now Sunday is shaping up to be very nice. A crisp and cool start to the day is expected with temperatures well down into the 50s area wide, and highs in the mid to upper 70s...a touch below normal for early-mid October. The current zonal flow in place will finally be displaced by a NWly flow at the surface and aloft, and this will allow for a very nice stretch of weather to close out the weekend, and roll over into next week. The coolest mornings of the season so far are expected for Sunday and next Monday with low to mid 50s. With dry air and low humidity in place, it should be a beautiful day with pleasant temperatures remaining just shy of 80 on Monday. Just beyond the forecast period, the first real true stretch of fall weather looks to continue as a series of re-enforcing fronts moves into the region, each one will help to drop temperatures a few degrees, and keep a dry pattern in place...typical of October.

Tropics: After an unusually quiet September largely thanks to El Nino, we have a named storm to talk about here in early October. However, it is absolutely no threat to the U.S., and isn't a very impressive looking system at all. Tropical Storm Grace was quickly classified a system on Sunday. Grace was located in the Northeastern Atlantic. It developed from a persistent area of convection, that developed a circulation, and based on ship data was classified a tropical system. Grace developed rapidly, and reached a peak intensity of 70 mph early this morning. It has already become extratropical as it has merged with a frontal system over the Far NE Atlantic, and as it moves NE towards Ireland. Other than bringing some squally weather to Ireland and Great Britain, it should not be much of a factor.

An area of low pressure about 875 miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles is moving to the WNW around 15 mph. This system has been around for a few days now, and is slowly getting better organized. The potential is there for this system to continue to become better organized over the next couple of days, and it may become a tropical depression possibly on Tuesday. If it does develop, it will likely not persist for very long as the upper level conditions over the Atlantic and Caribbean will not be conducive for development by the latter half of the week. This system will likely not be a threat to the United States.

Elsewhere: No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday. 

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH   74/90   74/87   75/91   10 30 20 40 20 30

LFT    74/89   74/87   74/90   10 30 20 40 20 30

BPT    76/91   75/87   76/92   10 30 20 40 20 30

AEX   65/88   68/88   70/90   10 40 20 50 20 30

POE   66/89   69/88   71/90   10 40 20 50 20 30

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with an isolated shower possible. Low 74. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. SSE wind 10 mph.

Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SSW wind 10-15 mph becoming NNE in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 75. East wind 5-10 mpy becoming SSE 10 mph.

Thursday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Tuesday

10-6-09

Low: 74

High: 90

Precip: 30%

Wind: SSE 10-15

Wednesday

10-7-09

Low: 74

High: 87

Precip: 40%

Wind: SSW/NNE 10-15

Thursday

10-8-09

Low: 75

High: 91

Precip: 30%

Wind: SSE 10-15

Friday

10-9-09

Low: 75

High: 84

Precip: 70%

Wind: SSE/SSW 15-20

Saturday

10-10-09

Low: 63

High: 73

Precip: 20%

Wind: NNW 10-15

Sunday

10-11-09

Low: 54

High: 75

Precip: 0%

Wind: N 10-15

Monday

10-12-09

Low: 57

High: 78

Precip: 0%

Wind: NNE 5-10

...Marine...

Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night...South winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides:

Low: 10:24a.m. 10:58p.m.
High:  1:53a.m.   5:47p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, October 5, 2009

Low:                 69
Normal Low:    63
Record Low:    46-1987
High:                 83
Normal High:    84
Record High:    96-1909 

Rainfall:
Today:                             0.28"
Month to Date:                3.10"
Normal Month to Date:   0.76"
Year to Date:                50.08"
Normal Year to Date:   44.80"
Record:                          1.94"-1944


Sunrise Tuesday:   7:09a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:    6:52p.m.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

 

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL (11Z) 6AM FRIDAY...

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a Tornado Watch for all of SW Louisiana effective until 6a.m. Friday morning.This is an advance of a SW-NE oriented line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving to the SE across the state ahead of the cold front.

Other showers and thunderstorms have developed out ahead of this line, and very heavy rainfall has occurred around Lake Charles between 1 and 2a.m. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to become more numerous across the area ahead of the main squall line. One or two of these discrete storms will have the potential to reach severe limits with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds, but with the presence of a low-level Jet there is some shear in the atmosphere, and this is what is needed to produce tornadoes, so one or two tornadoes can't be ruled out overnight. I believe the main threats will continue to be from hail and high winds as well as heavy rainfall causing localized flooding. So far there have been no reports of severe weather in the area.

As of 2:20a.m. the main squall line was making very good progress into the area, and extends from near Columbus, TX to to Kountze, TX to Longville to Oakdale to to Marksville. It should be moving into Lake Charles around 3:30a.m. There are currently no warnings in effect, but if things change I will certainly keep you informed.Conditions will improve drastically once the MCS moves through, and and its on current pace it should be into Acadiana around 5a.m., clearing the forecast area by 8a.m.

-DM-

Stormy Start to Friday, Beautiful Start to the Weekend, but It All Goes Downhill After That...

Thursday, October 1, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After a brief taste of fall, the warm moist air has returned to the area ahead of a strong cold front. A pronounced Southerly flow dominated the forecast tonight, bringing back the warm muggies during the day after a pleasant morning. It was a dry day for most with Partly Cloudy skies in place, however, a few isolated showers occurred across parts of the area. Temperatures were seasonable for the day with maximums in the lower 80s. It is quiet across the forecast area for the time being tonight, but showers and thunderstorms will move into the region after midnight ahead of the advancing front.

Looking at radar at this time shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms moving to the ESE from Central Arkansas down into North Louisiana encroaching on Monroe back through Shreveport extending SW to near Lufkin, TX to Bryan-College Station, TX. The most intense part of this line at this time was over NW Louisiana between Shreveport and Ruston and near the end of line NE of Bryan-College Station. This entire area is ahead of the cold front which is moving rather quickly to the SE. It is already through Tyler and Texarkana, and will move into our forecast area in the wee hours of Friday morning between 3 and 4a.m. The main threat for severe weather is expected to remain across the Northern half of the state, and the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the Northern half of the state. It's actually 2 different watches, one for North and NW Louisiana including Shreveport until 2 a.m. and just recently,  a new watch was issued to encompass the rest of North Louisiana, NE Louisiana, and parts of Central Louisiana until 4 a.m. This includes Monroe and Natchitoches. The southern border of this new Severe Thunderstorm Watch is at the northern edge of the forecast area. It is possible that a watch will be issued further South later tonight or early Friday for all or parts of our area, but at this time a watch doesn't appear likely around here. The main threats with the ongoing storms to our North is high wind and hail. A very small tornado threat exist with the current set up, but this seems much less likely considering the time of year and the dynamics in place.  The entire forecast area is highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK.

Ahead of the main squall line (MCS), a few scattered showers have developed across the forecast area right near Lake Charles. This will continue to be the case through the night as moisture streams across the area ahead of the front. Only brief periods of showers, or a quick thunderstorm is possible until the MCS arrives.
A deep Southerly flow will prevail tonight and this will allow for dew points and moisture to continue to increase across the area. Rain chances will increase throughout the night, reaching their peak around daybreak before ending entirely by mid-morning Friday. The presence of the Subtropical Jet Stream, which is a dominant feature in an El Nino pattern, will aid in a severe weather threat for the forecast area. Early October is a bit premature for severe weather across the area, but in an El Nino year, it is not uncommon. The Jet will add to the already present impressive dynamics. A limiting factor for severe weather across our area is the Gulf of Mexico itself. Fast winds in the upper levels streaming across the area from SW to NE will result in a few storms reaching severe limits late tonight, but with the best dynamics displaced to our North, any severe storm across our area should be on an isolated nature, therefore, I currently do not anticipate the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but stay tuned. The best Jet dynamics (fastest winds aloft) will be across Northern portions of our forecast area, so this is where the strongest storms should be, though everyone will certainly see some heavy rain and gusty winds with the line of thunderstorms as it moves through. The most likely time frame for the worst of the weather should be between 4 and 8 a.m. The storms will likely be near Lake Charles around sunrise, and clear the entire area by late morning. The cold front will come shortly behind the squall line, and should be through Lake Charles by mid-morning, and Lafayette by noon. Conditions will quickly improve behind the line of thunderstorms, with a short period of showers before tapering off. Temperatures for the overnight will certainly not be anything like what they should be for October with readings only reaching near 70 underneath Mostly Cloudy skies.

It will be a stormy start to Friday with the storms moving in, and after 1-2" of rain across the area Friday morning, clouds will begin to decrease around lunch time with some sunshine expected for the afternoon with cooler and drier air filtering in as a high pressure moves out of the Great Plains into the Mid West. This is good news for all the of High School Football games and any other outdoor activities scheduled for Friday night. For Friday highs, expect readings around the seasonable mark very near 80. Winds will shift from SE tonight to SW behind the MCS to NW behind the cold front. A good deal of sunshine should round out the day as the front pushes into SE Louisiana. Friday night will be nice with clear and cool conditions with lows down into the mid to upper 50s for Saturday morning. Temperatures should be in the lower 70s during the evening before falling into the 60s before the end of the football games. Saturday will start off on a very nice note with clear skies and cool temps in the 50s, but just like this past go around, the cool, dry air will be short-lived as the front stalls out just offshore as it bumps into the controlling Subtropical Jet Stream with strong SW winds aloft.

Clouds will return by Saturday afternoon putting an end to any sunshine that we get on Saturday morning. At the same time, moisture will be pooling over the Gulf ahead of the front, and will be poised to move inland. Rain chances will return late Saturday and especially Saturday night as the fronts becomes a warm front, and retreats Northward over the area. This will bring rain chances back into the likely category for Saturday night and Sunday as the warm front lifts to the North of I-10, and disturbances embedded in the Subtropical Jet Stream move across the area from SW to NE. Saturday will be a pleasant day with highs near 80, but with the front retreating the warm and moist air will quickly replace the cool dry air, so Saturday night temperatures will be much warmer than that of Friday night with mid 60s at best. Rain and thunderstorms will be likely on Sunday as the front remains in our general vicinity. The warm and moist flow off the Gulf will continue, and the front won't move much either way through Monday, so expect rain chances to remain high into the new work week. Sadly, it will feel more like summer as we start the new work week with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s and lows only falling to the lower 70s at best. Timing differences with each disturbance as forecast by the models make it difficult to pin point exactly when and where the highest rain chances will be, but regardless they will be in the likely category for Sunday and Monday.

Persistence will be the name of the game in the latter periods of the forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The main Jet Stream that drives cold front down into the area will remain lodged up to our North as a blocking high over the SE keeps it from shifting. This means we will remain in the warm and moist flow off the Gulf with more energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream sending embedded disturbances across the forecast area from time to time each day. Thus, rain chances remain in the forecast, though without the effects of a major forcing mechanism such as a front, they will be lower than those of the Sunday-Monday period. The temperature regime during this time will certainly leave a lot to be desired for those of us looking for fall as unseasonable warmth will dominate with highs up near 90 expected, and lows in the low to mid 70s. More sunshine on these days will allow for such warmth, but there will still be ample clouds as well, and a wording of Partly to Mostly Cloudy will be given to denote sky conditions for this period. Much cooler weather will hopefully head our way behind a strong front as the pattern shifts to a more favorable regime just beyond this forecast period. Stay tuned for more severe weather updates throughout the night.

Tropics: All is quiet in the Atlantic Basin as we enter the month of October. No tropical storm formation is expected through the weekend.

Preliminary Numbers and Zone Forecast:

LCH 70/80  58/81  64/83  70 80 0 30 70 70
LFT  69/81  57/81  63/83  70 90 0 30 70 70
BPT  72/82  60/82  66/83  70 60 0 30 70 70
AEX 65/78  53/79  60/81  80 60 0 20 60 70
POE 66/78  53/80  61/81  80 60 0 20 60 70
ARA 71/81 58/81  65/82  70 90 0 40 60 70

Tonight..Mostly Cloudy with a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall, and some isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large hail possible towards morning. Low 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy with an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall, and isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large hail possible early. Rain ending by mid-morning with Decreasing Cloudiness from late morning through mid-afternoon. Becoming Sunny late. Turning Cooler and Windy. High 80. SSW wind 10-15 mph in the morning, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty by noon.

Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 58. North wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Sunny in the morning with Increasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. Becoming Cloudy by late afternoon with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms late. High 81. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. Low 64. East wind 10-15 mph, becoming SE overnight. Chance of rain 70%.

Sunday...Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall possible at times. High 83. SE wind 10-15 mph.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Friday
10-2-09







Low: 70
High: 80
Precip: 80% AM
Wind: SSW/NNW 10-20


Saturday
10-3-09

Low: 58
High: 81
Precip: 30% PM
Wind: NE 10-15

Sunday
10-4-09







Low: 64
High: 83
Precip: 70%
Wind: SSE 10-15

Monday
10-5-09







Low: 72
High: 87
Precip: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15

Tuesday
10-6-09

Low: 74
High: 90
Precip: 40%
Wind: SSE 10-15

Wednesday
10-7-09

Low: 73
High: 88
Precip: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15

Thursday
10-7-09







Low:71
High: 84
Precip: 40%
Wind: SSW 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 15-20 knots. Seas 3-4 feet building to 3-5 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight.

Friday...Northwest winds 15-20 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 3-5 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...East winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Saturday...East winds 10-15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1-3 feet building to 2-3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...Southeast winds 15-20 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Southeast winds 15-20 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

...Tide Data...

Friday Tides:

Low:  8:26a.m.  8:35p.m.
High:  1:44a.m.  1:44p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Low:               65
Normal Low:   64
Record Low:   42-1924
High:               88
Normal High:  85
Record High:  97-1904

Rainfall:                           
Today:                            0.02"
Month to Date:               0.02"
Normal Month to Date:  0.16"
Year to Date:               47.00"
Normal Year to Date:  44.20"
Record:                         1.60"-1983

Sunrise Friday:   7:07a.m.
Sunset Friday:    6:57p.m.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-