Remembering Rita: 4 Years Later

Thursday, September 24, 2009

*This look back at Rita will be very lengthy, but please read it, and feel free to post your comments and questions about the storm. I would love to hear from you. 

Tonight, I continue my look back at the most powerful storm to ever affect SW Louisiana: Hurricane Rita! We all have a story related to the storm, whether you evacuated or stayed behind. Here's my personal account of the storm. This was written shortly after the storm, and while I was still at ULM in the fall of 2005.

Hurricane Rita! The first major hurricane to hit SW Louisiana in 48 years!

September 24, 2005 is a date none of us here will ever forget! It's the day a lot of lives in our beautiful corner of the world were turned upside down by the very worst of Mother Nature. Granted, I'm not trying to take away from the severity of Hurricane Katrina here, but Rita is by far the worst storm to ever hit the Lake Charles area. The national media coverage of Rita was more than subpar. It was like Lake Charles & vicinity never even existed except during the height of the storm, when you saw a few live reports from the city on national media outlets, but then the day after the storm all the attention was back on Katrina's aftermath, and how to rebuild the great city of New Orleans.

I know we'll all have many many stories to tell for years to come about how Rita affected our lives. I can't imagine the horror at the height of the storm for those who stayed. As one who loves weather, part of me wanted to be right here in the thick of the category 3 winds, but the human being in me, had more sense about it all, and stayed in Alexandria at a relative's house. I drove down there from Monroe on Thursday before the storm, and my parents drove off from our home here in Lake Charles that afternoon. It took them about 5 hours to reach Alexandria, a trip that normally takes around 90 minutes or so. I was the only one heading South on Highway 165. That is a visual image that will stick with me forever.

Before I get back into the meteorological aspect of Rita, I want to share some personal feelings I had of Rita. For me, it seemed so surreal after seeing what Rita did to SW Louisiana, after seeing the devastation of Katrina first hand over Labor Day weekend. I was in utter shock and awe when I went to SE Louisiana the weekend after Katrina hit. The first time I came back into Lake Charles after Rita was for fall break the 2nd week of October, and while things were already improving across the area, I was even more in shock after driving around town. You just can't believe something like that can happen until you see it first hand. I didn't think I'd ever see any devastation worse than what I encountered in the Covington-Mandeville area after Katrina, but Rita's damage here in the Lake area surpasses that. I stress that, I by no means, saw the worst of Katrina's damage, and I imagine that the damage in Mississippi is far far worse than that here in Lake Charles and surrounding areas. Cameron Parish, isn't too far behind what happened in coastal Mississippi, and I've heard many people from Cameron Parish who saw the devastation with Katrina in Mississippi, that this is just as bad as that.

I have seen some of the damage in Cameron Parish up close, and it is by far the worst thing I've ever seen. I haven't had a chance yet to get down to the Holly Beach or Johnson Bayou area, but I hope to do so before returning to Monroe for the Spring semester. Here we are, about 3 and a half months after the storm now, and there's still about 60-70% of the structures in Calcasieu Parish with blue roofs, and much of Cameron Parish is still uninhabitable with the mandatory evacuation being lifted just this week. There have been many images on local TV and in the American Press of Cameron Parish, and it is awful. Nothing hits you harder than seeing this happen in your community. It is a blessing that there was very little loss of life here in SW Louisiana/SE Texas because of Rita. I know, a lot of that was as a result of Katrina. Everyone saw how catastrophic Katrina was, and knew that at one point Rita was as strong as Katrina was. So, that combined, with the efforts of our local officials to stress the mandatory evacuation, really helped to cut down on the loss of life. Less than 10 lives combined have been taken as a result of Rita in SW Louisiana/SE Texas.

The 2005 Hurricane season was historic in more ways that one, and it's one that no one in SW Louisiana will ever forget thanks to just one of the 28 named storms.  Can we now officially put the 2005 hurricane to rest? One can only hope, but after having Zeta form a month after the official end of hurricane season, you never know.

Most everyone knows by now, that I disagreed all along with the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast for Rita's landfall to occur in Texas between Galveston and Corpus Christi. Historically, most of the tropical storms make a right hand turn, and in the end Rita was no exception. There were other reasons that led me to believe that SW Louisiana was in trouble. For one, in the days preceding Rita, and really since Katrina the area had been under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. We were at the tail end of our summer pattern, but the pattern that set up during the middle of September was more resemblent of July or August. Remember, it's usually around mid-September in which we start getting cold fronts again. September 2005 was different, however. The Bermuda High had built in across the area from the East, and under normal circumstances this high would help produce our typical round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. We also were influenced by the big Desert SW Ridge, that can build in from time to time in the summer months, and make it down right miserably hot with temperatures over 100 (This was what produced the hottest temperature ever recorded in Lake Charles back in the summer of 2000.) So, this put what we call in meteorology, a cap on the atmosphere. Basically, that means we had warm air aloft as well as at the surface, thus suppressing any of the cumulus clouds from building up into the afternoon thunderstorm clouds. Oddly enough, as a result of these high pressures influence the region, we had our hottest stretch of weather this summer in the 4 days preceding Rita.

In their forecast discussions on Rita as she entered the Gulf of Mexico during the week of September 19th, the National Hurricane Center was consistent on the ridge holding firmly in place across SW Louisiana, thus steering Rita to the west towards the middle Texas coast. Another point I should make here is that these storms always follow the path of least resistance. I would read their discussion at each of their updates, and then look at the latest model runs, trying to forecast Rita's landfall. It's always a nervous time when there's a storm in the Gulf, because there's always a chance it could be ours, and it has to go somewhere once in the Gulf.  From the time that Rita was developing, and intensifying in the Florida Keys, I had a feeling like I'd never had before about a storm. I really felt like something was not right about this storm, I just had that feeling of, I think this is the one. As a meteorologist, however, you don't forecast your gut feeling, and I never like to stray away from the National Hurricane Center's forecast for land falling tropical systems, as those guys usually do an excellent job. I analyzed all the model data with each run, and read other forecaster's opinions, and studied the synoptic pattern (large-scale pattern) across the country at that time. For the first few days of forecasting Rita, it was hard to get a read on what the models showed, as they did their usual flip-flop job with Rita. As each day passed I began to become increasingly concerned about a major hurricane threat in SW Louisiana, but I, along with everyone else I'm sure, never dreamed Rita would intensify so rapidly and become a category 5 like Katrina had done just 4 weeks earlier. However, the Gulf did have time to recover after Katrina, because of the unseasonably hot weather, and because the next few storms after Katrina were Atlantic storms.

While my official forecast was very close to the National Hurricane Center's, deep down, I still felt like it was going to be off-track. I based that on how the high pressures were set up at the time, and I knew where they would likely begin to break down first. In this complex situation of being influenced by 2 highs, they'd break down first right in the middle of the 2 axes, and this happened to be over SW Louisiana/SE Texas. I wasn't sure if I thought Rita would hit on the Texas side of the Sabine, or the Louisiana side, but I felt like we were going to see hurricane force winds in Lake Charles. I began telling my friends and family that I believe landfall would be between Sabine Pass and Cameron as a category 3 or 4. The Hurricane Center's forecast still called for landfall near Galveston on the 24th on the Wednesday night preceding Rita.

At that time I had just gotten off the phone with my mom, and was discussing things with her. I was awaiting the new model runs around 10 p.m. that night, and just as I feared, they had all shifted East, and also looking at Rita on satellite, it had taken more of a NW jog. By the time I went to bed that night, I was really concerned. I woke up Thursday morning to get ready for class, and my mom had been trying to get in touch with me. She couldn't get through on the cell phone, so luckily I had left my Instant Messenger connected that night, and she was able to get in touch with me through that. She told me that Calcasieu Parish was under mandatory evacuation orders, and that the storm had turned overnight. This was before I had a chance to look at the latest model data and storm information. I told her that the storm had turned more to the NW last night, before I went to bed, and the new model runs had been shifting further East like I suspected they would. I checked a few more things before I had to leave for class, and I told her, that indeed it was time to leave Lake Charles. It was hard to concentrate on anything else that Thursday.

I went on to class, but planned to head to meet mom and dad in Alexandria that afternoon. There was no way I was going to be away from my family at a time when our house might get torn up---I'm sure everyone else from the area felt the same way.

I ran back to the room after class to pack some things to head to Alexandria for the weekend, and checked the latest data once again. The models continue their Eastward shift, and now all of them had landfall between Galveston and Vermilion Bay, with Sabine Pass being the point of landfall, if you split it down the middle. Rita's wind field was larger than Katrina's, so at this point, I believed it was almost certain we'd see at least category 1 winds in Lake Charles even if landfall occurred more towards Galveston.

I headed off to Alexandria that afternoon, and would check the latest update once again when I got there. I set up shop at my aunt and uncle's house, and gave them the latest information as we waited for mom and dad's arrival. The 10 p.m. update told the story I had been feeling all week long...prepare for a direct hit from a major hurricane in SW Louisiana either late Friday or early Saturday. I checked the synoptics of the situation once again, and I said landfall could be right on the state line, that appeared to be where the weakness in the ridge was strongest. The hurricane center anticipated a storm surge of about 15' to the right of where landfall occurred. This would wipe out most of the coastal communities in Cameron Parish, and drive water up the Calcasieu Ship Channel creating storm surge of 6-8' in Lake Charles. The wind field would produce winds over 100 mph in the Lake Charles and Beaumont areas with a landfall between Sabine Pass and Cameron.

Thursday night was a long night, as I spent most of it forecasting and got very little sleep, and once I woke up on Friday I knew there'd be no sleeping again until Rita was over with, which wouldn't be til Saturday night. So, in all, I was up for about 36 hours straight. Conditions rapidly went downhill on Friday, the 23rd as Rita approached the coastline. The hurricane center continued to state landfall would occur sometime Friday night or Saturday morning in SE Texas or SW Louisiana, and a wobble one way or the other would determine which side of the state line it would occur on, but wouldn't really affect how strong the winds would be since Rita's wind field was massive. In Alexandria, over 100 miles inland, I estimated a wind gust of 85 mph as the storm made its closest approach to Alexandria around mid-morning Saturday.

Another image of Rita that will always stick in my mind is seeing FOX News broadcasting from L'Auberge du Lac at 3 a.m. (just after landfall) and not being able to see anything but all the horizontal rain. It was difficult to watch, as we've never seen weather quite like that in this city in our lifetime. Even I as a meteorologist, who is supposed to be a calm mediator during a time like that, burst into tears. I think it was just me not knowing what's happening to my house, and what will the city I've lived in, and loved all my life look like tomorrow. We lost power twice in Alexandria, so most of the time during the height of the storm my hands were tied, and my information was very limited. I did have full capacity as the eye made landfall at 2:38 a.m. near Johnson Bayou with 120 mph winds. (Cat. 3).

The preliminary report which continues to be updated by the National Weather Service here in Lake Charles shows that wind gusts over 130 mph were recorded along the Calcasieu Ship Channel. Looking at the damage around Calcasieu Parish, I'd say that that was highly possible. I'd estimate winds near 120 mph here at my house, and I am convinced a spin-off tornado from Rita's eastern eye wall traveled right down my street. The bushes in my yard look as though they were nearly sucked right out of the ground, and all the trees that were standing at the end of the street in the woods behind the fence are down, and facing different directions, as well as the trees in the field across Nelson Road. Note, that most tornadoes travel from SW to NE, and if you draw a line of the damage path through my subdivision and across Nelson Road it takes the track that a tornado would. Tornadoes are very common in the eastern side of a hurricane, and the official number of tornadoes with the eyewall of Rita is not known at this time. There were likely so many that occurred between Beaumont and Lake Charles, that the Weather Service can't possibly keep track. The eastern eyewall passed directly over the cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur, and that is where some of the strongest winds occur. The storm surge reached 6' along the shores of Lake Charles, and on the Calcasieu River in downtown Lake Charles. The Intracoastal Waterway created storm surge flooding all the way up to the Airport with 2' of water covering Gauthier Road between Nelson Road and Big Lake Road. There was total devastation from the storm surge in Cameron Parish in communities such as Holly Beach, Constance Beach, Cameron, and Johnson Bayou. More information on the storm surge and wind speeds can be found from the National Weather Service's Lake Charles site at www.srh.noaa.gov/lch

SW Louisiana shows signs of recovery from our area's worst natural disaster everyday, but it will take many years to rebuild Cameron Parish to what it once was before Rita. Here, in Lake Charles, we still have a lot of work to do to get back to what we were before the storm, but I know with the heart and determination of the great people of SW Louisiana we will do so for Lake Charles and all of our towns here in SW Louisiana. Rita is a storm none of us will ever forget, and it has once again reassured me that meteorology is where I belong. Everyone has told me what a good job I did forecasting Rita, and I appreciate that, but this was one of the few times that I wanted to be wrong as a meteorologist.

My hope is that everyone will always pay attention to the weather, and that after enduring a storm as powerful as Rita, realize how important it is to know what the weather will do. The 2005 hurricane season was one for the record books with Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma affecting the United States as major hurricanes, and no one in this state will ever forget Katrina and Rita.  Let's all hope and pray that SW Louisiana and everyone else affected by storms recently, can have a speedy recovery, and that it will be a really long time before we ever see a storm of that magnitude again. 

*Again, this is the post as it was actually produced back in late 2005.


Now, as we continue a look back at Rita, here is my forecast discussion and information from the NWS Lake Charles and National Hurricane Center from Thursday, September 22, and Friday, September 23, 2005 leading up to the onslaught of Rita.

Thursday, September 22, 2005! RITA A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS NW GULF COAST... *FORECAST TRACK AND ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD.* *THREAT FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE IN SW LOUISIANA DRAMATICALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING.* *MANDATORY EVACUATIONS FOR CAMERON PARISH, AND CALCASIEU PARISH SOUTH OF I-10.* My advice to all of us is to leave the city of Lake Charles as soon as possible. It appears likely that we will see hurricane force winds in the Lake area. DO NOT PANIC! DO NOT PANIC! Prepare your home and property for the possibility of sustained hurricane force winds. Fill up your car with gas, and take as many valuables with you as you can. Take extra cash, and make arrangements for your pets! This is a life-threatening situation, and it is going to be a very catastrophic storm in the areas along and just to the right of where the eye makes landfall. This will be a storm that changes many people's lives across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. If for some reason, you can't leave your home, please make sure you have enough food and supplies for at least a week. Power outages will occur, and may last for weeks. Stay tuned to local media outlets and your local authorities! Following is the latest advisory on Hurricane Rita from the National Hurricane Center! POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE RITA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.  A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT  595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 491 MILES SSE OF LAKE CHARLES. RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.  TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ..INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATING THE 7 AM CDT POSITION...25.2 N... 88.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...170 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM CDT. I will have more information a little this morning, due to time constraints, I must end this one! I promise you that I will update as much as I can as long as Rita is a threat, and as long as I have power. Take care and pray for the best! -Drew-

Thursday, September 22, 2005!

*CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA AIMED AT UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SW LOUISIANA COAST.*

If you haven't left the area yet, I advise you to please do so as soon as possible. This will be the absolute worst weather than any of us have ever seen. This storm will be worse than the current benchmark storm for SW Louisiana, Hurricane Audrey in 1957.
Ironically, Audrey was the last time SW Louisiana received a direct hit from a major hurricane.
Below, I will post the latest information from the National Hurricane Center, and then I will post the latest statements from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, LA. I will conclude the update with my discussion, and what I believe will happen across the area.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE RITA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.  THE WATCH IN MEXICO MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...525 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.  ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.  IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N... 90.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?3day?large

Now, here's the latest statement from the NWS Lake Charles office!
HURRICANE RITA... STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTS...

...HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINE...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CAMERON...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON DAVIS...ACADIA... VERMILION...LAFAYETTE...UPPER AND LOWER SAINT MARTIN...IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

...WATCHES/WARNING...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON...ORANGE...HARDIN...TYLER...JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...CAMERON...VERMILION...IBERIA...SAINT MARY...LOWER SAINT MARTIN...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND ALLEN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR VERNON... RAPIDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE...SAINT LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...AND UPPER SAINT MARTIN PARISHES IN LOUISIANA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS...OR ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE STORM ASHORE ALONG THE EXTREME UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
HURRICANE RITA IS NOT A POINT...BUT A LARGE STORM COVERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ITS IMPACTS WILL BE FELT NOT JUST AT THE POINT OF LANDFALL BUT FOR A LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RITA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGE ALONG ITS PATH. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE FOLLOWING ARE CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

NEWTON...JASPER...ORANGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE COUNTIES.

CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MANDATORY FOR ENTIRE PARISH.

JEFF DAVIS PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AND ALL OTHER LOW LYING AREAS.

VERMILION PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14 AND PEOPLE IN ALL MOBILE HOMES OR SPECIAL MEDICAL NEEDS. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.

ACADIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92 AND VOLUNTARY FOR OTHERS IN LOW LYING AREAS OR RESIDENTS IN LIGHT HOUSING OR MOBILE HOMES..

SAINT LANDRY PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES.

ST. MARY PARISH...MANDATORY SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL CANAL. VOLUNTARY FOR ALL OTHERS.

LOWER ST. MARTIN PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SPECIAL NEEDS PATIENTS AND VOLUNTARY FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

IBERIA PARISH...MANDATORY FOR SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 90 AND 14.

LAFAYETTE PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN MOBILE HOMES... LOW-LYING AREAS...AND PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL MEDICAL CONDITIONS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITY.

EVANGELINE PARISH...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS FOR PEOPLE LIVING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN HOUSING THAT CANNOT SUSTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

BEAUREGARD PARISH...VOLUNTARY FOR PEOPLE IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN MOBILE HOMES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS RECOMMEND THAT INDIVIDUALS TAKE SUPPLIES TO LAST THEM FOR 3 TO 5 DAYS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LAKE CHARLES AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA...AND ORANGE AND BEAUMONT TEXAS.

HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.

IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.


NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TIDES AT:

SABINE PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW / 2:19 PM/0.1 FT  
SATURDAY     HIGH/12:39 AM/2.1 FT     LOW/3:30 PM/0.2 FT

CALCASIEU PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW/1:33 PM/0.1 FT       HIGH/11:43 PM/2.6 FT
SATURDAY     LOW/2:44 PM/0.3 FT

SOUTHWEST PASS:
FRIDAY       LOW/ 2:24 PM/0.1 FT
SATURDAY     HIGH/1:25 AM/2.1 FT      LOW/3:34 PM/0.3 FT


BASED ON THE PROJECTED STORM SURGE VALUES...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...WHERE CRESTS OF 9 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. MAJOR FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE MERMENTAU RIVER...WHERE CRESTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND THE BORDER PARISHES OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREME WINDS OF LONG DURATION AS THIS LARGE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF AND INTO EAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING ASHORE ACROSS THE ATCHAFALAYA AND VERMILION BAYS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN CONTINUING INLAND AS FAR AS ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA AND JASPER TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA NEARS THE COASTLINE...REACHING 50 TO 60 MPH ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA TO LEESVILLE LOUISIANA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE COASTLINE BY SUNDOWN. WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL AND MOVES FURTHER NORTH INTO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS.

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE EXTREME WINDS AND THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THEM. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
EXTREME RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY RITA...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS RITA APPROACHES THE COASTLINE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON HURRICANE RITA WILL BE ISSUED BY 200 AM CDT.

Here's another statement from the NWS Lake Charles...

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL    EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ON THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST. THE LARGE HURRICANE WIND FIELD WILL COVER ALL OF  SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL.

...INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT SATURDAY.

...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE EXPECTED TO MAN MADE AND NATURAL STRUCTURES...

THE EYE WALL OF HURRICANE RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITH THE EYE WALL COULD BE AROUND 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 165 MPH WHEN IT HITS THE COAST. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND SIZE OF THE EYE WALL...THE EXACT LOCATION ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COAST MAY CHANGE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE EYE WALL OF A HURRICANE WITH THIS STRENGTH.

HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOF AND WALLS. DESTRUCTION MAY OCCUR TO HOMES WITH GABLED ROOFS...WITH THE WIND LIFTING THEM OFF. MORE THAN HALF OF ALL INDUSTRIAL
BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. WOOD FRAMED GARDEN APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURES.

HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY. MOST WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT...AND MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS...SOME PIECES GREATER THAN 50 POUNDS...WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR INJURY OR DEATH.

ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS...AND PERHAPS WEEKS...AFTER THE STORM PASSES. THE MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED...MOST COMMON AMONG THOSE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZE. CITRUS ORCHARDS WILL BE DESTROYED AS WILL ALL NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS. ESTABLISHED GROUND CROPS WILL HAVE DAMAGE...WITH UP TO ONE HALF OF FIELDS NO LONGER ARABLE. LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE CRITICALLY INJURED OR KILLED.

OTHER AREAS A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE ACTUAL EYE WALL WILL SEE AT-LEAST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AROUND 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF DAMAGE.

...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES LIKELY...

...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...
GUTTERS...AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO CITRUS ORCHARDS...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES. BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND
ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS WILL BE DAMAGED.

Now, here's my discussion...

It can't be stressed enough, if you live in any of the areas that have issued a mandatory evacuation, or a voluntary or recommended evacuation, and you can leave, plase do so. This is a very very serious and deadly situation. None of us have ever seen a storm of this magnitude here in SW Louisiana. There will be widespread severe damage here in the city of Lake Charles from winds over 100 mph. We also have to worry about storm surge flooding here in town, as the surge along and to the East of the center will be around 25 feet or greater. This will send the storm surge all the way up to I-10 and the National Weather Service expects flooding from storm surge in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Beaumont, and Orange. There could be over 5 feet of water in downtown Lake Charles.

This will be a similar situation to Hurricane Katrina 3 weeks ago on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. As a general rule of thumb, the storm surge with Hurricane Audrey reached as far inland as Lake Charles Regional Airport. This storm surge will literally wipe the towns along the coast off the map. Numerous trees will be downed or uprooted across the entire area. Expect widespread power outages across the entire area as well, for days and probably weeks, maybe up to a month in some areas. Food and water supplies will be greatly affected, and it will be very hard to find these essentials for quite some time. There will be gasoline shortages, as well as long-term communication disruptions across the area. This will by far be the worst natural disaster ever to strike SW Louisiana.

It is very common in tropical systems to see tornadoes on the right hand side of this storm. We will begin to see the threat for tornadoes Friday afternoon, and this threat may continue through at least Monday across much of the state. This storm will likely stall out somewhere in East or NE Texas or Western Louisiana. This will result in catastrophic flooding in some areas, as the moisture is just pumped over our area. Rainfall amounts as the hurricane makes landfall will likely be 10-15" across Southern sections of the area, and 5-10" across northern portions. This is just the rainfall totals as Rita approaches the coast, and moves inland. Some locations may wind up with over 30" of rain. The flooding in itself will have the potential to cause a prolific death toll as well. Many parts of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks, so plan on staying wherever you have evacuated to for at least a few weeks.

This is a storm that will affect everyone's life, and it will change the landscape of SW Louisiana forever. Tropical Storm force winds begin to affect SW Louisiana from SE to NW on Friday morning. These winds of 39-73 mph will begin being felt in the Acadiana area by sunrise Friday, and in the Lake Charles area by mid morning Friday, and by noon in SE Texas. By Friday evening, hurricane force winds will be approaching the coast. I think that hurricane force winds will reach Lake Charles around midnight Saturday or a little sooner, and last til around noon Saturday. On the current forecast track, I expect winds of category 3 strength in Lake Charles, around 120 mph. These winds will be much higher down along the coast at Cameron where winds up to 150 mph are possible with higher gusts. Hurricane force winds could be felt as far north as Alexandria. Sustained tropical storm force winds may extend all the way into Southern Arkansas. There will be power outages and tons of downed trees as far inland as I-20, not to mention the damage the flooding could do. Remember, the threat for tornadoes! These tornadoes will be rain-wrapped, and will occur with little or no advanced warning. You likely won't see the tornado at all, and will only hear it when it is right on top of you. I expect the Storm Prediction Center to issue a tornado watch for the entire area by Friday afternoon. Like I said, the tornado threat may continue into Monday. These systems tend to spin off more tornadoes as they wind down.

That will do it for now, I will more updates during the day Friday. I'm gonna try and get some sleep! I don't think I'll be getting any sleep for the next couple days! Not many of us will! This is the proverbial calm before the storm! At this point, I hope everyone has left the area, and made all the preparations to their homes and property. All I can recommend at this point, is prayer! There's nothing stronger than the power of prayer, and our fate lies in the hands of God! Take care everyone, please leave the area, be safe, and God bless all of us facing this catastrophic hurricane!

-Drew-


It wouldn't be a look back at Rita without some videos and pictures:


These pictures are a perfect illustration of what storm surge can do and did. The surge is the most devastating aspect of the storm along the coast. 




Holly Beach, LA before and after Rita.

Another image of Holly Beach, LA after Rita

Now, courtesy of The National Weather Service here are some pictures from the extensive damage Rita caused in Lake Charles:

 

For a look at tons more pictures of damage around the area, log on to the National Weather Service Lake Charles Hurricane Rita page: NWS Rita Page

To close out our look back at Rita: SW Louisiana's Storm here's links to some  YouTube videos. 

A Video Set to Music That Shows Damage from across the Area including SE Texas and SW Louisiana 

Coverage of Rita on The Weather Channel  

Watch as Weather Channel Meteorologist Jeff Morrow reports live from Sulphur before the worst of Rita arrives 

In closing, here's a bit more on Rita:

Rita was a historical storm in every sense of the word. At peak intensity, Rita became the most intense storm ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico with top winds of 180 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. Rita set a record for rapid intensification as the pressure dropped 70 mb. in 24 hours...from 967 mb. at 10p.m. on Tuesday September 20 to 897 mb. at 10p.m. on Wednesday September 21. This pressure reading also made Rita the third most intense hurricane on record in the entire Atlantic Basin at the time. Rita strengthened from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in about 36 hours, and maintained category 5 strength for about 18 hours. 

Rita caused the largest evacuation of the Gulf coast in history at the time. Most of SW Louisiana was uninhabitable for several weeks after the storm with authorities officially keeping Calcasieu Parish closed into the first full week of October. Cameron and Vermilion Parishes was uninhabitable for much longer due to the widespread destruction from the storm surge. Power and other essentials didn't return for much of the area until early October. The flooding from the storm was a bigger issue than freshwater flooding from heavy rainfall, because the summer of 2005 was very dry, and widespread drought conditions were in place across the area when Rita hit. The entire area saw 8-12" of rainfall with Rita, but this didn't lead to any additional flooding problems. While no official count has been given on the number of tornadoes from Rita across SW Louisiana, Rita was responsible for the largest number of spin-off tornadoes from any tropical cyclone, and the largest September tornado outbreak in history as well. The National Hurricane Center reports that at least 90 tornadoes occurred as a result of Rita, and this number is likely higher since the count is unknown across our area. Rita is monumental in that nearly every structure across the area experienced some sort of damage whether it was just a few shingles missing off a roof or complete destruction, it affected all of us, and for many of us our lives will never be the same. It is a crying shame that Rita is so forgotten by so many. Those of us here will never forget.

Hurricane Rita is certainly by far the worst natural disaster ever experienced in our area, and will now be considered the benchmark storm for the area surpassing Hurricane Audrey from 1957. The 2005 was historical in many ways, and while there may have been 28 named storms, as far as those of here in Louisiana are concerned there was really only 2. It is a wonderful blessing that there was very minimal loss of life in our area from this most destructive storm. Some of this can certainly be attributed to Katrina 3 and a half weeks earlier, and I believe had Katrina not happened, many many people would have stayed home, and the loss of life would have been far greater than it was. SW Louisiana is a great place to live, and it is and always will be home. The hearts and generosity of the people of SW Louisiana are bigger than anywhere else in the world, and in our darkest moments neighbors helped neighbors, and we all worked together to get our lives back in order. Just another example of why I'm proud to live in SW Louisiana, and will always call it home. I offer my prayers and thoughts to all of you who are still recovering from Rita, and I hope that you will all join me in praying for continued protection from these very serious storms in the future. God bless all of you and God bless SW Louisiana and SE Texas!!!

-DM-

Remembering Rita...Rain Chances Remain in the Forecast, When Will It Start to Feel Like Fall???

Remembering Hurricane Rita: 4 Years Later:

The forecast is coming up, but first...This week marks the 4 year anniversary of the worst natural disaster to ever strike SW Louisiana...Hurricane Rita. I'll spend today and tomorrow looking back on the storm. I'll discuss the history of the storm, its impact on our region, and how things have changed since. Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005 at 2:38 a.m. at Johnson Bayou, LA. Rita, once a category 5 over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, made landfall as a category 3 with 120 mph winds. The storm surge from Rita was equivalent to that of a category 4 storm. The storm surge was as high as 20' across portions of Cameron Parish and greater than 10' across the entire SW Louisiana coastline. Coastal communities such as Cameron, Holly Beach, Creole, and Johnson Bayou were completely destroyed by Rita from the extreme storm surge. Major structural damage from hurricane force winds over 100 mph occurred across a large area, and extended well inland. Major damage occurred in Lake Charles, Sulphur, Orange, Beaumont, and Port Arthur and all points in between.The Lake Area experienced sustained hurricane force winds for 6-8 hours from late on the 23rd through around sunrise on Saturday the 24th. Tropical storm force conditions began during the afternoon on Friday the 23rd and continued through the afternoon hours on the 24th. The storm surge penetrated as far inland as Lake Charles with water from the Gulf backing up the Calcasieu River. The surge reached levels never before seen in Lake Charles with 6-8' of water in downtown, these levels were exceeded during Hurricane Ike.

Rita formed from a tropical wave that became better organized near the Turks and Caicos Islands on the evening of September 17th. Rita steadily strengthened and first effected the Florida Keys and South Florida as a category 1 hurricane on Tuesday, September 20. Rita passed through the Florida Straits later on the 20th, and entered the Gulf of Mexico. A strengthening trend continued and Rita was a category 2 upon entrance into the Gulf. Initially, Rita was forecast to make landfall along the middle Texas coast near Corpus Christi, but many meteorologists were becoming increasingly concerned that landfall would be further up the coast. What happened next was amazing! Three weeks removed from Category 5 Hurricane Katrina, Rita underwent rapid intensification processes, and attained Category 5 status with 175 mph sustained winds in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions were absolutely perfect for strengthening with a strong ridge of high pressure over the top of Rita creating no shear in the Gulf, and a very high oceanic heating content. Rita continued on a W to WNW course into the 21st, and on the evening of Wednesday September 21, Rita reached peak intensity with winds of 175 mph and a pressure of 897 mb. or 26.49". At the time, that was the 3rd lowest pressure ever recorded anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, surpassing even Katrina. At the time of its peak intensity Rita's hurricane force wind field extended outward 70 miles from the center, while the tropical storm force wind field extended out to 185 miles from the center. The wind field would later expand as the storm weakened. A continued bend in the forecast models, and expansion of the wind field continued to raise concerns for our area, and a direct hit from a major hurricane was becoming more and more likely. The National Hurricane Center issued a Hurricane Watch for the Louisiana and Texas coastline from Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron on Wednesday afternoon.

On Thursday, September 22, the threat from Rita was realized even more so, as a mandatory evacuation was ordered for Calcasieu Parish for the first time in history. Rita maintained its category 5 strength through the night of the 21st into the 22nd, and the forecast models were now all clustered on landfall occurring near the Sabine River, which is a worst case scenario for our area. Hurricane Warnings were put into effect along the  Texas and Louisiana coast from Port O'Connor to Morgan City at 10a.m. on the 22nd. Hurricanes like Rita rarely maintain category 5 intensity for very long periods of time, and Rita was a category 5 for less than 24 hours. A slow weakening began during the afternoon of the 22nd, as Rita encountered a bit of SW shear, and went through the typical eyewall replacement cycles that hurricanes go through. Rita remained a very dangerous category 4 hurricane into the night on the 22nd, while everyone continued to heed the warnings and evacuate the area. Millions of Gulf Coast residents evacuated, and this created havoc and chaos on the interstate highway systems especially across the Houston Metro area.

Rita continued on its collision course with SW Louisiana, and by Friday September 23 a direct hit was inevitable. Rita had continued to weaken, and was now at category 3, still a very formidable, and serious hurricane with 130 mph winds. Conditions would deteriorate rapidly during the day on the 23rd, and the outer rain bands from Rita began moving across the area by lunch time. The wind field with Rita by 10a.m. on the 23rd has reached 85 miles for hurricane force winds and 205 miles for tropical storm force. The tropical storm force winds moved into coastal areas of SW Louisiana during the early afternoon hours, and overspread the entire area by Friday night. Rita weakened only slightly more before landfall, and weakened to a 120 mph category 3 storm at landfall. Landfall occurred at Johnson Bayou at 2:38a.m. on Saturday, September 24. Sustained hurricane force winds reached the coastline between 6 and 8p.m. on the 23rd, and the first hurricane force gusts occurred in Lake Charles shortly after 9p.m. Sustained winds of over 100 mph, and as high as 130 mph in some areas occurred across SW Louisiana between midnight and 6a.m. on Saturday the 24th. After landfall, the eye of Rita moved Northward through Western Cameron and Calcasieu Parish and Eastern Jefferson and Orange County. The path of the eye was through communities such as Johnson Bayou, Port Arthur, Vinton, Orange, and Deweyville.While the eye of Rita didn't track right over the city of Lake Charles, the position of the eye placed the city in the NE eye wall, which is where the worst of the weather always is with hurricanes. Many spin off tornadoes, the incredible storm surge, and the highest winds occurred during this time. There were likely so many spin off tornadoes with Rita, that to this date 4 years later, an accurate count has not been given. Major damage occurred to many homes and businesses in the area including the Capital One Tower downtown and major damage to the terminal at the Lake Charles Regional Airport. There likely wasn't a home or business in the area that didn't at least have some damage, and many homes and businesses were severely damaged or destroyed by fallen trees or storm surge. The surge in Cameron Parish was so severe, that in many locations only a slab was left.

Our lives were turned upside down on September 24, 2005 by the very worst of Mother Nature. As bad as the damage was from Rita, thankfully the loss of life was minimal. A lot of this is likely attributed to Katrina, because I feel that many wouldn't have evacuated if Katrina had not occurred 3 weeks prior. Most of the fatalities with Rita were in SE Texas and occurred during the evacuation from Houston. A bus accident on I-45 between Houston and Dallas took the lives of 55 evacuees. 7 direct fatalities occurred with Rita, 3 of which were here in the Lake Charles-Beaumont area. The total damage amount from Rita across the area was $10 billion, making Rita one of the top 5 costliest natural disasters on record. Rita was the first major hurricane to strike our area directly in 48 years. Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was the last, and hopefully it will be a very long time before this occurs again. Rita changed SW Louisiana forever, and changed the way of life for a lot of people, and our coastline will never be same. We have learned a lot of lessons from Rita. There's so much more to say about Rita, and part two will come tomorrow night. Here's a few images of Rita.

This is an image of Rita over the Gulf at peak intensity on 9/21/05

A radar image of Rita near landfall...Just before the worst of the storm moved into the Lake Charles area:

Click here for a link to the NWS Lake Charles' Hurricane Rita Page:

The site includes pictures of damage from around the area, and links to satellite and radar images, and also features a comparison of Rita and Audrey.

This is a comprehensive report on Rita from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

More to come tomorrow on Rita, including my own documentation of the storm and evacuation. I was at ULM at the time. Now onto the forecast discussion:

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Not as much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity across the forecast area with only scattered, most light activity across the area in the wake of the cold front which barely made it through the area yesterday. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity was located just off to our East most of the day along the stalled frontal boundary bisecting the state from near Tallulah to around Morgan City. Another area of shower activity mostly as the result of overrunning was situated over Central Texas behind a stronger cold front which will not make it through our area due to a very strong SW flow over the Western Gulf, and a stalled upper level low over the Great Plains. Mostly Cloudy and Humid conditions dominated the weather today with a few peaks of sun. Temperatures weren't much cooler behind the front with morning lows averaging warmer than normal in the low 70s while afternoon highs reached the mid 80s. Rain chances will remain in the forecast tonight as Gulf moisture continues to stream over the area, and an advancing disturbance moves towards the area from the Central Texas cold front. Overcast conditions will prevail as perusal of satellite data tonight shows a cloud canopy existing well back into Texas. Boy, it would be nice to get in on some of the air behind the second front...it's in the upper 50s in the Texas Hill Country; an area that was hit hard by very hot temperatures and severe drought this summer. We'll cool off eventually, but not yet.

For Thursday and Friday, the forecast is a tricky one. That, with the disturbance moving across, and the potential rainfall it may produce especially with the continued SW flow aloft. The stream of moisture is evident at this time with the aforementioned area of showers streaming NEward across the Texas Hill Country and approaching Houston tonight. With not much headway expected by the stronger frontal boundary, I don't expect widespread showers across the area, as shown by some of the models. However, with the deep moisture pooling in from the Gulf despite an offshore flow, some showers are expected across the area, but certainly nothing to the effect of what we saw across the on Tuesday. A thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, but this is a pattern that favors just general rain as opposed to thunderstorms. With the effects of daytime heating, better chances for seeing rain will come later in the day, and the highest chances will be split into two areas. The highest chances for continuous shower activity will be over SE Texas up through the Toledo Bend area to near Alexandria, while a bigger threat for thunderstorms will exist across the SE portion of the forecast area through Acadiana closer to the stalled frontal boundary. Radar currently shows some shower/thunderstorm activity in the offshore waters moving to the NE, so some rainfall can't be ruled out for the Thursday morning commute, but certainly not everyone will see it, and should mostly be light. Overcast conditions will only a few peaks of sun should be the general rule for the next couple of days. The forecast for Friday is one that is similar to Thursday with all the same players on the field...the stalled front could waver one direction or the other, but won't move much, and the stalled upper low over the Great Plains will only slowly begin to move on Friday. The temperature forecast for the Thursday/Friday period is one that is actually easier than the precipitation forecast. Lows tonight and Thursday night should vary from West to East depending on your proximity to the stalled boundary. 60s are expected across SE Texas through Central Louisiana, while lower SW Louisiana will see readings in the lower 70s, and Acadiana will see readings in the mid 70s. Highs should be close to normal for late September especially in areas where it doesn't rain. In areas where the rain is more persistent, it will have a hard time warming up much above 80. Rain chances will be kept in the high end chance category for the time being with further revisions based on model data and radar trends.

Changes occur over the weekend as the Great Plains ULL ejects out as the next advancing trough gives it the boot, and the stalled front just to our East dissipates. High pressure nosing in from the North will usher in drier air for the weekend, but not really anything cooler just yet. At present, I will retain only a slight chance of rain for Saturday, and none for Sunday. A stray shower or two underneath leftover moisture is possible Saturday, but not likely. High pressure should suppress any thunderstorm development Sunday, thus the dry forecast. As we expect more sun this weekend, a warmer forecast is expected as well with highs in the upper 80s and lows near 70...not exactly fall-like, but not unusual for late September around these parts either.

The latter stages of the forecast period do offer some hope for a switch to fall. A cold front is forecast to move through the area on Monday, but most of the dynamics needed to generate widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with it are forecast to remain North of our area at this time. The front itself should serve as a focal point with an onshore flow in place to generate some shower or thunderstorm activity, but chances for rain should remain in the chance category. This front will usher in some drier and finally some cooler air, most likely progressively by Tuesday and Wednesday to close out the forecast period and the month of September. Lows will drop to near seasonable in the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday, and lower to middle 60s seem reasonable for Wednesday while highs remain in the middle 80s. A stronger front looks to arrive just beyond the forecast period, and hopefully that one will drop all of us into the 50s for lows and 70s for highs...either way this beats conditions from 4 years ago tonight.


Tropics: The signs of El Nino are certainly present in the tropics, as there is not a single named storm across the entire Atlantic Basin. A high shear environment remains in place, and El Nino is partially responsible for this. The tropics are quiet, and should remain this way through Friday with no tropical storm development expected.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH  70/84   71/84   72/87  30 40 30 40 20 20
LFT   72/84   74/84   72/86  40 60 30 50 20 20
BPT  68/82    69/84   71/88  30 50 30 40 20 20
AEX  68/82   68/84   66/88  40 60 30 50 20 20
POE  67/81   68/84   67/88  40 60 30 50 20 20
ARA 75/85   75/84    73/87  40 60 30 50 20 20

Tonight...Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Low 70. North wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of rain. High 84. North wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain. Low 71. North wind 10 mph.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night..Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of rain. Low 72. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High 87. East wind 10 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
*Graphics for 7 Day Currently Unavailable due to Computer Crash Last Week

Thursday
9-24-09
4 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Rita
Sky: M/C
Precip: 40%
Low: 70
High: 84
Wind: N 10-15

Friday
9-25-09
Sky: M/C
Precip: 40%
Low: 71
High: 84
Wind: NE 10-15

Saturday
9-26-09
Sky: P/C-M/C
Precip: 20%
Low: 72
High: 87
Wind: NE 5-10

Sunday
9-27-09
Sky: P/C
Precip: 0%
Low: 72
High: 88
Wind: NE 5-10

Monday
9-28-09
Sky: P/C-M/C
Precip: 30%
Low: 73
High: 89
Wind: SE/NW 10-20

Tuesday
9-29-09
Sky: P/C-M/S
Precip: 0%
Low: 68
High: 84
Wind: NNW 10-15

Wednesday
9-30-09
Sky: M/S
Precip: 0%
Low: 65
High: 85
Wind: NW/SW 10-15


...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tide Data...Tidal Information Provided is for Calcasieu Pass,LA...

Thursday Tides:
Low: 2:44p.m.
High: None

Lake Charles Climate Summary from NWS Lake Charles...

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Low:               73
Normal Low:  67
Record Low:  49-1982
High:               87
Normal High:  86
Record High:  97-1910

Rainfall:
Today:                         Trace
Month:                          4.97"
Normal Month to Date: 4.69"
Year:                          46.69"
Normal Year to Date: 42.78"
Record:                        2.54"-2005 (Hurricane Rita)

Sunrise Thursday: 7:02a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:07p.m.

Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Upper Level Low To Keep Rain Chances in Forecast through the End of the Week...Improvement for the Weekend...Strong Cold Front Next Week!!!

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Another day of weather dominated by the pesky persistent upper level low. The low actually strengthened a bit, and moved West today. It is currently positioned in NE Texas between Tyler and Shreveport. It will continue to influence the weather across the area through Friday, before finally getting a boot out of the NE this weekend as a deep trough approaches. The future track of the low is one that will result in increasing rain chances for the next couple of days. A drift to the S or SE is expected through Thursday, and this will bring the upper level low closer to SW Louisiana in the vicinity of Toledo Bend. The low is then forecast to turn to the East and eventually NE on Friday. With the positioning of the upper level low today, some drier air was in place, and this reduced the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity across the area. This allowed for more sunshine and warmer temperatures across the area with highs in the mid tp upper 80s. Shower and thunderstorm activity was delayed until after 3p.m. across the forecast area, and once again the most numerous activity was across extreme Northern portions of the forecast area closer to the aforementioned low.

As the low drifts towards the forecast area, an increase in cloud cover and shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast for Thursday and Friday with at least half the area seeing rainfall each day. Rainfall amounts will vary, with heaviest amounts and the best chance of showers and thunderstorms across Northern portions of the area. With the increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will be below normal at least for afternoon highs. Morning lows will generally run in the low 70s for Thursday and Friday morning while highs reach the low to mid 80s. The dry air that was over the area today should help to keep Thursday morning dry for the most part, but by afternoon showers and thunderstorms will rotate into the area from the NW around the upper level low. On Friday, with the low making its closest approach to the area a shower or thunderstorm could occur at any time of day as the presence of a dry slot should be displaced from our area, if one exists at that time. Areas to the N and E of the low will continue to have the highest rain chances as the moisture pinwheels around the low with an onshore flow to the East, and an offshore flow to the West.

Over the weekend, the upper level low should finally weaken and nudge ENE out of the area as an advancing trough moves through the Great Plains. A shift in the overall pattern across the country is what is needed to shunt the low out of our way, and this should happen most likely on Sunday. On Saturday, the upper level low will be located NE of our forecast area, and this allow the area to be dry slotted once again around the broad circulation. Thus, rain chances will drop to below normal, but won't be taken out of the forecast entirely. The position of the low will produce an offshore flow across the area, and this will thwart the sea breeze, also aiding in the reduction of rain chances for the weekend. It will still be summer this weekend, with more sunshine expected high temperatures will be close to 90 while morning lows will be around 70...some upper 60s are possible as drier air filters in behind the upper level low. Very similar conditions are expected for both Saturday and Sunday before make changes take place Monday.

On Monday, the upper level low will finally be long gone as it is picked up by the advancing trough and associated cold front. The front will be approaching the area late in the day Monday, and will act as a focus mechanism for showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Therefore, rain chances will increase once again. Cloud cover will increase once again, and winds will shift to off the Gulf once again as it usual ahead of cold fronts. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will carry over into Monday night and Tuesday morning as the front passes through, but conditions will greatly improve on Tuesday. It will be noticeably cooler and drier behind the front, and this will be right on cue with the first day of Fall on Tuesday. Monday will see highs in the mid 80s ahead of the front, and because of the higher rain chances and increased clouds. Very nice weather will round out the forecast period as a true taste of fall moves in. The cool down will start in the wake of the front on Tuesday. Winds will shift from SE to NW and increase behind the front flushing out the humidity, and ending summer. Tuesday lows will be in the 60s and highs in the low 80s with clearing skies during the day, and by the end of the forecast period on Wednesday lows in the 50s for much of the area looks reasonable while highs top out near 80 with Sunny skies and low humidity....aaaaahhhhh! It can't get here fast enough.

Tropics: Thank you, El Nino!!! We are deadlocked in prime time hurricane season, but it's more like the early part or latter part of the season in the Atlantic Basin at this time with no active storms. The environment of the tropical Atlantic remains one that is unfavorable for development due to high amounts of wind shear present, and a larger area of marginal sea surface temperatures. There are a couple of low risk areas as highlighted by the National Hurricane Center, one of which is the remnants of Fred. Each one of these low risk areas is having a hard time getting better organized because of all the shear.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH   73/83    73/84   71/86      20 40 20 40 20 20
LFT    73/84    73/83   71/86      20 40 20 40 20 20
BPT    75/85   74/85    72/88     20 40 20 30 20 20
AEX   71/82    71/83    68/86    30 60 30 50 20 10
POE   71/81    71/82    68/87    30 60 30 50 20 10
ARA  74/84    73/83    72/86    20 40 20 40 20 20

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 73. Light West wind. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 83. SW wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 73. Light SW wind.

Friday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84. SW wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 71. Light West wind.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86. WNW wind 10-15 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Thursday
9-17-09

73/83/40
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 8- High


Friday
9-18-09

73/84/40
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 8- High


Saturday
9-19-09

71/86/20
Wind: WNW 5-10
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 10- High


Sunday
9-20-09





70/88/20
Wind: WSW 10-15
H.I.: 92-97
U.V.: 10- High


Monday
9-21-09





72/85/40
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 9- High


Tuesday
9-22-09
Autumnal Equinox





65/82/20
Wind: NNW 15-20
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


Wednesday
9-23-09

57/78/0
Wind: NW 5-10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 10- High


...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...West winds around 15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Northwest winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...West winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tide Data...Tidal Information Provided is for Calcasieu Pass, LA...

Thursday Tides:
Low:  9:15a.m.   9:52p.m.
High:  3:14a.m.   2:10p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary from NWS Lake Charles...

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Low:              73
Normal Low:  73
Record Low:  53-1902
High:              87
Normal High:  88
Record High:  99-2004

Rainfall:
Today:                           0.00"
Month to Date:               3.64"
Normal Month to Date:   3.28"
Year to Date:                45.36"
Normal Year to Date:    41.37"
Record:                          3.94"-1975

Sunrise Thursday:   6:59a.m.
Sunset Thursday:    7:15p.m.


Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-

Pesky Upper Level Low Controls the Forecast For Now...Dry Weekend???...Cold Front Next Week???

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The pesky upper level low and associated weak surface low continues to be the dominant weather feature across the state tonight. As a result temperatures were held below normal today with readings only in the mid 80s at best. Shower and thunderstorm activity was scattered across the area, but was more widespread across Northern portions of the area in closer proximity to the upper level low. The upper level low is currently situated over North Louisiana between Ruston and Monroe. It is cut off from the main Jet Stream which is displaced well to our North right now. That being said, the steering currents over the Bayou State are very weak at this time. Therefore, the upper level low is in no hurry to move out. There are discrepancies in the models as to when this will occur, but we'll try to make heads or tails of this shortly.

It is certain that the upper level low will control the weather across the forecast area once again for Wednesday and Thursday. All is quiet across the area tonight, but a renegade shower or two can't be ruled out after midnight with the upper level low spinning near Monroe. The movement of the upper level low will be erratic and problematic to say the least. The low is forecast to retrograde (move West or WSW) tonight and Wednesday. This will position it back between Shreveport and Tyler during the day Wednesday. This will keep the area under a moist flow around the broad circulation of the low. The end result will be a continued average to above average chance of showers and thunderstorms as disturbances rotating around the upper level low swing through the area along the base of the low. The onshore flow will also induce a sea breeze during the afternoon. Rain chances will vary across the forecast area with the highest chances remaining across Northern portions of the area closer to the ULL, while the smallest chance for shower and thunderstorm activity will reside near the coast. For Thursday, rain chances could increase some further South depending on the movement of the upper level low with some SE motion hinted at by the models. If this occurs, this would place the upper low in Central Louisiana. Rain could occur at any time, but will be more likely during the afternoon. The flooding threat will remain across North Louisiana and into Arkansas where rain has been persistent for the last several days. Cloud cover will continue to be enhanced by this feature with Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies expected for tonight through Thursday. Temperatures will be kept in check as well. Readings very similar to that of Tuesday can be expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

By Friday, the forecast confidence is uncertain at best. The upper level low has to move at some point. It seems that from day to day the models want to delay the departure of this feature. Most model guidance this evening suggests that the upper level low will hang around through Friday, with a nudge a bit to the East from Thursday into Friday. A few models still suggest that the low will weaken and move away from the area overnight Thursday ushering in drier air in its wake, and taking rain chances out of the forecast. Based on what is taking place right now, with the nearly non-existent steering currents, I am going to leave rain chances in the forecast for Friday, but will drop them a bit such as to blend the idea of the models. The temperature forecast for Friday remains unchanged with readings still below normal with another day of enhanced cloud cover. We will remain under the influence of this deep tropical flow off the Gulf until the upper level moves well to our East. By the weekend, the forecast offers improvements as the upper level low finally gets the boot in response to a shift in the Jet Stream. At this same time, a trough and associated cold front will be moving SE through the Rockies. I will talk about this more in a moment. It will be the proverbial kicker for this upper level low, and the low will weaken and lift out to the NE going into the weekend. In the wake of the upper level low, somewhat drier air will move into the area just in time for the weekend. This will reduce rain chances to minimal values, and more sunshine will be expected. As a result, an increase in maximum temperatures is expected as well with readings near to just above normal for Saturday and Sunday. Daytime heating will result in a couple of thermally induced thunderstorms each day, but the overall trend will be for a less than average coverage of rainfall activity. This is good news for all outdoor activities.

In the latter stages of the forecast period, some more changes are in the offing. The cold front mentioned above will be approaching the area at the beginning of the new work week. Ahead of it, moisture levels will increase with an intensifying onshore flow. This will bring rain chances up once again until frontal passage. Shower and thunderstorm activity should remain scattered in nature, with chances returning to near normal to just above for this time of year on Monday. There are still timing discrepancies associated with the movement of the front, and at this point a blended forecast seems to be the logical thinking. The front will be right on cue to usher in the first day of Autumn next week. At this time, the forecast will show frontal passage on Tuesday during the day. Much improved conditions will be ushered in with this front, and temperatures just beyond the forecast period will drop to below normal with lows likely to be in the 50s behind the front by middle of next week. Highs will also drop to the lower 80s with no mention of rain. It should truly be a taste of fall as fall commences next week.

Tropics: The tropics remain quiet as an El Nino pattern exists over the Atlantic basin with a highly sheared environment present. No tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH   74/84     72/84    73/86     20 40 20 40 20 40
LFT    73/84     72/83    73/85     20 40 20 50 20 40
BPT   75/86      74/85    75/88    20 40 20 40 20 30
AEX   72/81     72/83    71/83     30 50 30 60 20 40
POE   72/81     72/83    71/84     30 50 30 60 20 40
ARA  75/84     74/83    74/85     20 40 20 40 20 40

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 74. Light SW wind.

Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84. SW wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Low 72. Light South wind.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Light South wind.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86. SW wind 10-15 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Wednesday
9-16-09





74/84/40
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.:90-95
U.V.: 8- High


Thursday
9-17-09





73/84/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 8- High


Friday
9-18-09





73/86/40
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 9- High


Saturday
9-19-09






70/89/20
Wind: NW 10-15
H.I.: 92-97
U.V.: 10- High


Sunday
9-20-09        

                     




71/91/20
Wind: WSW 10-15
H.I.: 92-97
U.V.: 10- High
                   

Monday
9-21-09


        



73/88/30
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 10- High


Tuesday
9-22-09
Autumnal Equinox


                   
 

74/83/40
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 8- High


...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet building to 2-3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet building to 2- 3 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...West winds 10-15 knots decreasing to 5-10 knots after midnight. Seas 1-3 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

...Tide Data: Tidal Information Provided is for Calcasieu Pass, LA...

Wednesday Tides:
Low: 8:34a.m.    9:00p.m.
High: 2:59a.m.  12:44p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary from NWS Lake Charles...

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Low:              73
Normal Low:  70
Record Low:   51-1902
High:              83
Normal High:  88
Record High:  99-1906

Precipitation:
Rain Today:                  Trace
Month to Date:               3.64"
Normal Month to Date:   3.07"
Year to Date:                45.36"
Normal Year to Date:    41.16"
Record:                          3.10"-1930

Sunrise Wednesday: 6:58a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:  7:17p.m.


Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-

Rain Chances on the Decline, Drier Air Moving In Later This Week...Tropics are Quiet

Monday, September 14, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather pattern discussed in detail last week continues to dominate the weather across the state as we start the new work week. The pesky upper level low and weak surface low continues to slowly move off to the East tonight. The upper level low is currently situated over NE Texas between Tyler and Shreveport while the surface low is located a bit further to the SE between Fort Polk and Shreveport. Each low will slowly move Eastward for the next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms were widespread over the weekend, and it was another day of above normal coverage across the area today, but conditions began to improve with a longer period of sunshine this afternoon. Some drier air wrapping around the lows moved into SW Louisiana this afternoon to preclude additional development once the sun came out to warm temperature up into the mid to upper 80s. It'll take a couple more days to get rid of the rain chances with the upper level low in the vicinity and slow to move out, but as we progress towards the weekend we will dry out nicely.

The surface low is the low that formed in the Gulf over the weekend, and it is working in tandem with the upper level low to keep a deep, tropical air mass in place across the forecast area. With the lows making their closest approach to SW Louisiana tonight into Tuesday, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast overnight. The drier air that entrained into the area around the upper level low this afternoon has moved out tonight, and some additional shower and thunderstorm activity has developed. Better rain chances through tonight and tomorrow will be off to our North closer to the slow moving lows. A threat for flooding will also exist mainly across the Northern half of the state. The heaviest rainfall tonight has been in the vicinity of Monroe. Intervals of sunshine are expected on Tuesday, but it could still rain at any time as we're not quite back to a normal late summer pattern just yet. Rain chances will be above normal for the entire area, but will be highest for Fort Polk and Alexandria and lowest along the coast. The combination of the energy generated by the upper level and surface lows, daytime heating, and the sea breeze will certainly produce an environment favorable for off and on showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will continue off the Gulf until the lows move to our East. Rain chances will remain above normal for Wednesday as the lows reluctantly move East. Temperatures for this time period will be seasonable with very high humidity values.

Improving weather should begin around Thursday with rain chances dropping as drier air moves in behind the departing upper level low. Winds will also transition from an offshore component to an onshore component. This will help in bringing drier air and increasing subsidence into the area. A chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm will remain in the forecast as daytime heating will help to induce a few late summer afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but overall coverage will transition from above normal to below normal. Temperatures will virtually remained unchanged for afternoon highs, but morning lows will be a tad cooler mainly due to the effects of the drier air. The lack of a cold front will not change temperatures much just yet.

For Friday and the weekend...good news!!! Little or no chance of rain is forecast as drier air dominates the forecast with an established Northerly flow at the surface continuing behind the departing and weakening cut off low. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows near normal in the mid to upper 60s. It looks like a complete opposite compared to this past weekend, and it should be very enjoyable for any outdoor activities whether its a football game or whatever. Some changes are in store to close out the forecast period on Monday. A cool front will be approaching, and this will bring back a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but at this time it looks like only about an average chance of showers and thunderstorms as the offshore flow ahead of it should be short-lived. A quick shot of showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this boundary, but the usual timing issues with the models exist at this time, and the front could arrive a day or two later. For now I will be optimistic and forecast frontal passage on Monday. Cooler and drier weather will follow in its wake with a taste of fall right on cue next week for the official first day of fall, but that's beyond the scope of this forecast period.

Tropics: It is prime time, but all is quiet in the tropics right now. The environment over the Atlantic and Caribbean is one that is very hostile, and not conducive to development at this time. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH 74/87 73/87 71/88 30 40 20 40 20 20
LFT 73/88 74/87 71/87 20 40 20 40 20 20 
BPT 75/88 74/88 72/88 20 40 20 30 20 20 
AEX 72/86 72/86 68/89 40 60 30 50 20 20
POE 72/86 72/86 68/89 40 60 30 50 20 20
ARA 75/87 74/88 72/87 20 40 30 40 20 20

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 74. Light SE wind.

Tuesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. Light SE wind.

Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. Light SW wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 88. SSW wind becoming NNW at 10-15 mph.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Tuesday
9-15-09








74/87/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 9- High

Wednesday
9-16-09

73/87/40

Wind: SSE 10-15

H.I.: 93-98

U.V.: 9- High

Thursday

9-17-09

71/88/20

Wind: SSW 10-15

H.I.: 90-95

U.V.: 10- High

Friday

9-18-09

68/88/0
Wind: NNW 10-15
H.I.: 87-93
U.V.: 10- High


Saturday
9-19-09

67/88/0
Wind: NW 5-10
H.I.: 85-90
U.V.: 10- High


Sunday
9-20-09

69/87/0
Wind: NW/SW 10-15
H.I: 88-93
U.V.: 10- High


Monday
9-21-09

71/86/30
Wind: SSE/NNW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 9- High


...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday...West winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night...West winds 10-15 knots decreasing to 5-10 knots after midnight. Seas 2-3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...West winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night And Thursday...Northwest winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2 feet. A slight chance of     showers and thunderstorms.


Tuesday Tides:
Low: 8:02a.m.   8:04p.m.
High: 2:46a.m.  10:59p.m.


...Climate Data for Lake Charles from NWS Lake Charles...

Monday, September 14, 2009

Low:              75
Normal Low:  70
Record Low:  52-1940
High:              87
Normal High:  88
Record High:  99-1939

Precipitation:
Rain Today:                   0.09"
Month to Date:              3.64"
Normal Month to Date:  2.86"
Year to Date:               45.36"
Normal Year to Date:   40.95"

Sunrise Tuesday: 6:57a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:  7:18p.m.


Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-