Heavy Rainfall and Potential Flood Threat Shaping Up This Weekend...

Thursday, September 10, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A very moist, unstable tropical air mass resides across the forecast area tonight. The rich tropical air mass will remain in place through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms were numerous across the area today, and this trend will only increase for Friday through the weekend. With the deep moisture in place temperatures were held down to near normal to below normal levels, but the humidity was oppressive, look for this to continue as well for the next few days.

A large area of tropical moisture over the Western Gulf of Mexico remains in place tonight, and with an established Southerly flow this influx of moisture will continue streaming across the area through the weekend, with the entire area only moving slowly off to the NNE. A weak surface low appears to be developing in the vicinity of Brownsville, Texas. This area will be watched closely for possible tropical development on Friday. Models diverge on whether or not this system will develop into something tropical, but it should be noted that all the models do indicate a surface reflection of some sort. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico are only marginally favorable for tropical development at this time with wind shear present at this time. The weak low will have to fight off the wind shear to develop into a tropical system. While there may be a surface low present at this time, there is some question as to whether or not it is a tropical low or not. The low is forming in response to energy from a surface trough over the Rio Grande Valley, and an approaching upper level disturbance coming out of the Rockies. The origin of the low may come over land, therefore, it may be a cold core system, whereas tropical lows are warm core systems. As the low attempts to strengthen it will try to garner tropical characteristics. It is uncertain what type of low and what degree this low will be as it moves slowly off to the NE over the weekend. It really won't make that much difference as far as our weather goes....wet! wet! wet! I would strongly suggest bringing your rain gear with you to any football games you may be attending this weekend. All the High School games on Friday stand a chance to be played in a downpour as does LSU on Saturday night. McNeese plays out of town this week, so rain won't be an issue for them.

The best forecast right now is that this low will be a hybrid system...that is, a subtropical low. What this means is that the low will not be fully tropical. It will have some of the characteristics of a tropical system, and some that are not typical of tropical systems. It will have a hard time getting going thanks to the shear that is present over the Gulf, but stranger things have happened in September in the Gulf, and if you remember it is prime time right now. In fact, today is the historical peak of hurricane season. This low will be affecting the area on the 12th and 13th, and we have had some notable storms during this time in recent years...Humberto in 2007 and Ike in 2008...both of which made landfall on September 13. The low will work in tandem with the upper level low over Texas to produce the heavy rainfall event. If the low strengthens, it may reach tropical depression or even weak tropical storm status over the weekend before it moves inland over the area Sunday. Winds and seas in the coastal waters would increase the more this low strengthens, and wind would become an issue for coastal areas as well as the low approaches. However, genesis of a tropical system is not expected at this time as the shear environment over the Gulf should preclude such an occurrence. As it typical with low pressure systems, the worst of the weather will be on the NE side of the low. This is, of course, the position we will be in the next 3 days. We will be in prime position to receive several inches of rain across the entire area. Rainfall amounts will vary from location to location, but average amounts should be 4-8". It won't be out of the realm of possibility that some locations receive upwards of 12" of rain through Sunday. We could use a little bit of rain, as it has been a dry September so far, but areas that desperately need the rain i.e. Central and South Texas will benefit greatly from this system. This will likely lead to localized flooding initially, and then depending on how much rain falls a river flooding situation as well.

While convective activity has waned during the evening hours, showers and thunderstorms persist over the Gulf especially in closer proximity to the area of cyclogenesis. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop overnight offshore, and work their way inland during the early morning hours. In this weather pattern, rainfall is not limited to the afternoon and evening hours. It could rain at any time of the day, and it is very possible that it will be raining around dawn on Friday. For Friday, rainfall will be widespread, but the chances will still be a bit higher from late morning through the afternoon. Sunshine will be very limited the next few days, and with all the moisture and expected rainfall temperatures will be held at bay with lows in the mid 70s and highs only in the low to mid 80s through Sunday. Conditions will likely be slow to improve. The upper level low and the Gulf low will both be slow movers, and rain chances will remain above normal through at least Monday. I still believe its possible that rain chances will max out at 100% this weekend, and decrease some on Monday.

The deep tropical air mass will remain in place even after the lows vacate the area, and the humidity will remain oppressive. With no large scale weather system coming along behind the departing low to scour out the humidity, expect it to remain very humid and warm through mid-week. For the Tuesday and Wednesday periods, a typical late summer day is forecast with sea breeze activity sparking off scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon at the height of daytime heating each day. Temperatures will be seasonable during this time. By the end of the foreacst period on Thursday, some changes for the better should be in the offing. A cold front will be approaching the area, and while there is still some question as to whether or not it will push through and give us a taste of fall, drier air should filter into the region producing lower humidity values and somewhat cooler mornings because of the drier air. Rain chances will also be removed from the forecast at this time. Stay tuned for further revisions to the forecast over the next couple of days.

Tropics: Hurricane Fred is in a weakening state in the Far Eastern Atlantic as it feels the effect of SWly wind shear. Fred has weakened to a category 1 storm tonight. Fred is also moving into an area where sea surface temperatures are only marginal to support intensification. Fred has not only weakened today, but has also decreased in forward speed due to collapsing steering currents. This will likely continue into the weekend with Fred expected to only nudge slowly to the NNE as Fred comes under the influence of a trough to its North. A weakening trend will continue, and Fred will likely be a tropical storm again on Friday. Further weakening will occur over the weekend, and Fred will be a remnant low by the end of the 5 day forecast period, and at this time will likely turn more to the WNW again and accelerate in forward speed as new steering currents around the Atlantic ridge are established.

Hurricane Fred 10p.m. Thursday, September 10, 2009

Latitude: 17.4N
Longitude: 35.1W
This is about 740 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands.

Winds: 85 mph w/ higher gusts---Category 1. Further weakening is expected and Fred should become a tropical storm on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 30 miles from the center while tropical storm force extend outward to 115 miles from the center.

Motion: North @ 3 mph. Fred is forecast to drift to the NNE through Saturday.

Pressure: 28.94" or 980 mb.

 

Elsewhere in the tropics...An area of widespread showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough interacting with a mid to upper-level low. Conditions in this area are only slightly conducive to development due to upper level winds, but this area will have a chance to slowly develop into a weak tropical low over the next couple of days. It will move very little over the next couple of days and hover near the Texas coast. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected along the Gulf coast from Mexico to Louisiana through the weekend. 

That's all for a look at the tropics tonight.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  74/82 75/82 75/83  30 90 60 90 60 80

LFT   73/83 74/83 74/84  30 90 60 90 60 80

BPT  75/82 75/83 76/85  30 90 60 90 60 80

AEX  71/84 73/84 73/87  20 80 50 90 50 80

POE  71/84 73/84 73/86  20 80 50 90 50 80

ARA  75/82 76/82 76/83 30 90 60 90 60 80

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. More likely towards morning. Low 74. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rainfall at times. High 82. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 90%.

Friday Night...Cloudy with showers and thunderstomrs likely. Locally heavy rainfall at times. Low 75.SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall at times. High 82. SE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Saturday Night...Rain Continuing. Heavy at times. Low 75. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Sunday...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely once again. Heavy rainfall at times. High 83. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Friday 

9-11-09

8 Year Anniversary of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks 

 

74/82/90

Wind: SE 10-15

H.I.: 87-92

U.V.: 7- Medium

Saturday

9-12-09

75/82/90

Wind: SE 15-20

H.I.: 87-92

U.V.: 7- Medium

Sunday

9-13-09

1 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Ike & 2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Humberto

75/83/80
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 8- High


Monday
9-14-09                             






75/87/60
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 9- High


Tuesday
9-15-09

74/90/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High



Wednesday
9-16-09           

72/90/20
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High



Thursday
9-17-09              

68/91/0
Wind: NW 10-15
H.I.: 88-93
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Marine Forecast....

Tonight...East winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...Southeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
Rain likely and scattered thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Saturday...South winds 10- 15 knots. Seas 1-4 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...Southwest winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...Southwest winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.
Showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Tides:
Low: 3:25p.m.
High: 4:01a.m.


Climate Data for Lake Charles...

Thursday, September 9, 2009

Low:             73
Normal Low: 71
Record Low: 61-1943
High:             88
Normal High: 89
Record High: 101-1912

Precipitation:
Rain Today:                  0.05"
Month to Date:             1.13"
Normal Month to Date: 2.02"
Year to Date:             42.85"
Normal Year to Date: 40.11"

Sunrise Friday: 6:55a.m.
Sunset Friday:  7:23p.m.


Good night and God bless!!!
-DM-

Wet Weekend...Fred the Fish Storm

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...After a dry start to meteorological autumn, and the month of September big changes are commencing. This is evident today as a better than normal coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity has occurred. This trend will not only continue through the weekend, but rain chances will increase further. The chances for showers and thunderstorms could eventually end up maxing out (100%) this weekend. There are several factors coming together that will dictate how much rain, and the amount of coverage we will see from day to day through Sunday. The forecast is a rather complex one, but I will get into the meat and potatoes of it here shortly. While there will likely be much fine tuning to this forecast in the coming days, the bottom line is we will be in a wet pattern through the weekend, with the rain chances ramping up and peaking over the weekend.

Rain chances were enhanced today by an impulse rotating out of the Rockies, and by an influx of deep tropical moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall began around late morning as this moisture moved onshore via the sea breeze. Due to the extensive coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity, maximum temperatures were only near normal or slightly below normal. SW Louisiana is on the northern edge of this axis extending along a trough from the Bay of Campeche to the offshore waters south of Cameron. This elongated area of moisture will remain in place for the next couple of days with very little movement. This will keep the forecast area under the influence of very deep tropical moisture directly from the Bay of Campeche in the SW Gulf of Mexico. So, for Thursday rain chances will again be higher than average with them likely to increase further from there. Temperatures will be around seasonable for morning lows, but remain below normal for afternoon highs. An approaching trough and associated cold front coming out of the Rockies will be moving SE as well. The frontal boundary will be in a weakening state as it moves into the offshore waters off the Texas coast tomorrow into Friday. It is at this time, that a surface low may develop along the tail end of this boundary. More on that in a moment.

Regardless of what happens in the Gulf, the influx of tropical moisture will be the dominant weather feature for the Friday through Sunday periods. The area of tropical moisture clustered just offshore will only slowly lift Northward. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread on Friday especially later in the day, and chances will nearly max out this weekend as the deepest moisture moves inland right over the forecast area. Chances of rain should be about the same for both Saturday and Sunday. Heavy rainfall is a good possibility with several inches of rainfall expected area wide between now and Sunday, and rain chances won't be strictly confined to the afternoon and evening hours. In this type of pattern, a shower or thunderstorm is possible at any time of day or night. Rainfall totals will vary from place to place, but locations that see the heaviest rainfall will run the risk of some localized flooding. Unfortunately, it looks like a good chance of rain for all of the football games this weekend. The timing of when the heaviest rainfall will occur is still uncertain, as models waiver on this idea.

Conditions over the Gulf are only marginally favorable for tropical development, and they should stay this way. Most models do indicate cylcogenesis, but vary on the degree. It is a highly climatological favored time of year for a tropical system to develop as we are at the peak of the season this week. However, a lot of times the models don't understand the amount of shear in a given environment. There is a decent amount of wind shear over the Gulf at this time, but it may relax for a short time late Thursday into Friday, before even stronger shear develops with the presence of the approaching trough. Therefore, I don't believe a tropical system will develop. However, a weak low of subtropical or tropical origins will traverse the Western Gulf, and move into Louisiana over the weekend. Weaker systems often move slower than stronger systems, and therefore, often generate higher rainfall amounts. The weak low will keep the plume of tropical moisture advecting from South to North across the forecast area through the weekend. Hence, the highest rain chances will come over the weekend. Further fine tuning over the next couple of days will determine which day will have higher rain chance. The weak low and associated tropical moisture will be slow to vacate the area, but conditions should improve by Monday.

The other scenario with this very complex weather situation is one that would involve further development of the aforementioned Gulf low. If conditions become more favorable, which, as mentioned earlier, isn't entirely impossible given the time of the year it is, a tropical depression or tropical storm could develop. If this occurs, the area of shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf would congeal into a more organized area, and close up into a tighter area. Any possible tropical development in this area will be slow to occur.This would limit shower and thunderstorm chances over the forecast area at least initially as subsidence over land increases with an organized cyclone in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The onset of the heavy rains would likely still be over the weekend, but conditions would be much drier across the area on Friday. However, an organized system such as a tropical depression or tropical storm would make conditions worse over the weekend as some wind is thrown into the equation, and a coastal flooding threat would exist as well. This is NOT forecast to happen at this point, and this situation is to be re-defined as necessary in the coming days.

As for the remainder of the forecast period...Conditions improve on Monday as the Gulf low advances NE into Mississippi ahead of the advancing trough and stalling front. Some drier air will filter into the region on the backside of the low as winds shift from offshore to onshore. With the frontal boundary in the region, shower and thunderstorm activity will still be in the forecast as this will be a focusing mechanism during daytime hours for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Monday will still offer above normal rain chances especially in the Eastern portions of the forecast area in closer proximity to the departing low, but essentially a normal mid-September pattern is forecast at this time. A secondary and stronger cold front will be moving into range towards the end of the forecast period. The timing of when this front makes it through is still uncertain right now as models flip flop on the issue, but it appears to be just beyond the scope of this forecast period. If the front speeds up, then rain chances will go higher in latter portions of the forecast period. Temperatures during the Monday-Wednesday period will be near seasonal. Of note, mid-September is the climatological peak of hurricane season, but it is also the time when we typically see our first cold front of the season. Stay tuned for further fine tuning to this forecast in the coming days.

Tropics: Hurricane Fred is the only active system. It has weakened some from major hurricane status in the far Eastern Atlantic, and this is where it will stay. Fred is being steered to the North by a weakness in the Atlantic ridge off the coast of Africa. This will keep Fred on a course to remain over the open waters of the Far Eastern Atlantic, and he will not be a threat to anyone except ships in that region. Fred will move into colder waters in the coming days, and weaken into a tropical depression if not a remnant low within 5 days. Fred is the second hurricane and second major hurricane of the 2009 season. Fred will be pretty to look at on satellite, but that's about the only interest it will have to us. I will continue to update the forecast track of Fred, but this is really about the only time I will discuss him in detail. The weakening trend with Fred has already begun tonight with Fred feeling the influence of increasing shear and dry air entrainment on the West side of the storm. Weakening is forecast for the entire forecast period as shear is forecast to increase and as the system moves into colder waters.

Here's the latest advisory on Hurricane Fred from the National Hurricane Center:

Hurricane Fred 10p.m. Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Latitude:    15.3N
Longitude: 33.7W

This is about 645 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands.

Wind: 105 mph w/ higher gusts- Category 2. A continued weakening trend is forecast for the next few days. Hurricane force winds extend outward to 30 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds outwards to 115 miles from the center.

Motion: NW at 10 mph---this motion will continue tonight, but a turn to the NNW and a decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday. This will be followed by a turn to the North and NNE on Friday.

Pressure: 28.50" or 965 mb.

Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:

LCH  73/86   73/84   75/83     20  60  30  70  40  80
LFT   72/87   73/85   74/84     20  60  30  70  40  80
BPT   74/85  75/84    75/83    20  70  30  80  40  70
AEX  70/88   71/86   74/85     10  50  20  60  30  70
POE   71/88  72/86   74/85     10  50  20  60  30  70
ARA  74/87  75/84    76/84    20  60  30  70  40  80

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Low 73. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 86. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible. High 84. SE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Friday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 40% showers and thunderstorms. Low 75. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible. High 83. SE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Thursday
9-10-09






73/86/60
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 8- High


Friday
9-11-09
8 Year Anniversary of 9/11 Terror Attacks






73/84/70
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 8- High


Saturday
9-12-09







75/83/80
Wind: SE 15-20
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 7- Medium


Sunday
9-13-09
1 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Ike & 2 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Humberto 






76/84/80
Wind: SE 10-20
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 7- Medium


Monday
9-14-09







75/88/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 9- High


Tuesday
9-15-09






71/90/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 10- High


Wednesday
9-16-09








72/90/30
Wind: South 10-15
H.I.: 93-98
U.V.: 11- Very High


...Marine Forecast from NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...Southeast winds 5-10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1-2 feet.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Northeast winds around 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1-2 feet.
Showers & Thunderstorms Likely.

Thursday Night...East winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...ESE 15-20 knots. Seas 1-3 feet. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...South winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Thursday Tides:

Low: 1:03 a.m.    2:20p.m.
High: 4:01a.m.


Climate Data from NWS Lake Charles...

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Low:             73
Normal Low: 71
Record Low: 59-1918
High:             86
Normal High: 89
Record High: 98-1906

Precipitation:
Rain Today:                  1.07"
Month to Date:             1.08"
Normal Month to Date: 1.81"
Year to Date:             42.80"
Normal Year to Date: 39.90"

Sunrise Thursday: 6:55a.m.
Sunset Thursday:  7:24p.m.

Good night and God Bless!
-DM-

One More Spectacular September Day Before the Humidity & Rain Chances Return...Erika Struggles For Survival in the Atlantic...

Wednesday, September 2, 2009 

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...No, this is not a dream...it really does feel that good out there!!! Aside from some hazy conditions, it was an absolutely beautiful day across the area, and about the weather was about as good as we ever get around these parts in early September. Morning lows were as forecasted in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Afternoon highs remained below 90 for yet another day as well. Clear skies prevail tonight, and with nearly calm winds in place as well with ridging processes continuing to control the weather. The current trough providing the superb weather extneds well down into the Gulf of Mexico...rare for September!!! Radiational cooling will take effect once again with low temperatures similar to that of last night with upper 50s North to the mid 60s at the coast. Thursday will be another nice day before changes occur for the end of the week into the holiday weekend. Highs will be a tad warmer Thursday with some locations cracking 90, but the humidity will still be in the pleasantly low category. 

The transition will actually begin on Thursday, although it'll only be subtle at first. Winds will shift from onshore to offshore by the afternoon hours as the larege Canadian high slides off to the East. Rain chances will be absent from the forecast for one more day. The moisture surges back with a vengeance overnight Thursday into Friday. Minor disturbances will eject out of the Rockies and traverse the NWly flow aloft in place. Each one of these will combine with daytime heating and increased low-level moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should be about normal for this time of year on Friday, as the aforementioned disturbance slides through the ARK-LA-TEX region. As moisture increases, morning temperatures will moderate. Afternoon highs will remain similar to that of the last couple of days, and up close to 90, but the heat index will be back in vogue as the humidity returns. 

A better chance for showers and thunderstorms is in the offing on Saturday. This, as a stronger embedded disturbance rotates across the forecast area. A better than average chance of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected, but the activity should mostly be confined to the afternoon. However, some late morning showers and thunderstorms can't be ruled out as the sea breeze develops. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate by the evening hours, so I don't expect it to rain on any of the football games on Saturday night, but any afternoon ones, could see some rainfall. A similar forecast is expected for Sunday and Monday, but rain chances will decrease as the NWly flow shifts a bit, changing the trajectory of the embedded disturbances. Sunday and Monday will be average late summer days with the sea breeze activity taking shape around lunch time. It should not be enough to wash out any Labor Day plans you might have. 

At the end of the forecast period, a drier pattern returns. Only a slight chance of shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with generally sea breeze activity. Ridging from Texas builds in, and as a result temperatures will approach the mid 90s to prove to us that summer isn't quite over just yet. It's a bit early to make the call on this as it is out of the range of this forecast period, but models suggest another cold front at least approaching the area about a week from Friday. This would enhance rain chances again at that time, and then an air mass similar to the current one would follow if this does come to fruition. 


Tropics: Erika is the only game in town on the Atlantic side tonight. I will discuss Jimena one more time shortly. Tropical Storm Erika is struggling to hang on tonight. The storm actually looked better last night, than it does tonight. It is barely a tropical storm tonight, as it is feeling a great deal of wind shear from the WSW. The low-level center is exposed to the West of the deep convection. Erika's center could reform underneath the deep convection over the Northern Leeward Islands, but due to the high amount of shear this is not likely at this time. In fact, Erika appears more likely to degenerate within a few days at this time. The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center reflects a weakening trend before ultimately dissipating the system over the weekend. The shear could relax somewhat for a short time on Thursday, but this is likely to be short-lived. The current intensity forecast is maintained through Thursday. The environment that Erika will be moving into will be even less favorable for development, so the forecast for degeneration within a few days seems likely at this point. A westward motion is expected overnight and into Thursday, before a more WNW motion is expected bringing the disorganized system over Western Puueto Rico and Eastern Hispaiola. Degeneration should occur by Sunday over the Bahamas. It remains to be seen if any low-level circulation will be leftover at that time. If so, it should drift towards South Florida towards Labor Day. 

Here is the Latest Advisory on Tropical Storm Erika from the National Hurricane Center: 

Tropical Storm Erika 10p.m. Wednesday, September 2, 2009 

Latitude: 16.1N 
Longitude: 62.4W 

This is about 70 miles WSW of Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles, and about 290 miles East of San Juan, PR. 

Wind: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Thursday morning, but weakening is expected after that. Tropical Storm Force winds extend outward to 175 miles to the East of the center. 

Movement: West at 9 mph. A gradual turn to the WNW is expected on Thursday. On this track, Erika will move towards Puerto Rico by late Thursday. 

Pressure: 29.77" or 1008 mb.  

Forecast Track for Erika 

Satellite Image 

Foreast Models


In the Eastern Pacific, Jimena has made landfall over Baja California. Landfall occurred this afternoon, and Jimena made landfall as a category 1 with 85 mph winds. This was far weaker than her peak intensity of category 4 strength with winds of 155 mph on Sunday. Jimena has weakened to a tropical storm tonight, and remains over Baja California. Jimena will, of course, continue to weaken over the mountainous terrain of Baja California the next couple of days. Jimena is moving to the North tonight, and is forecast to bend Westward and slow down over the next couple of days. The low-level circulation of Jimena should emerge into the colder waters of the Eastern Pacific off the West coast of the Baja Peninsula over the weekend, and continue weakening as water temperatures in this area are less than sufficient to support re-strengthening. A prolific flooding event is possible over portions of Mainland Mexico as well as Baja California due to the slow movement of the storm and the mountainous terrain of Mexico. This will produce the potential for flash floods and mudslides across the area. 

Forecast Track for Jimena 

  
Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts: 
LCH   63/90   67/88   70/87   0 0 0 30 20 60 
LFT   62/91    66/89   69/88   0 0 0 30 20 60 
BPT   65/92    69/90   72/87   0 0 0 30 20 60 
AEX  59/89    63/91   67/89   0 0 0 40 20 60 
POE   60/90   64/91   68/88   0 0 0 40 20 60 
ARA  63/91   67/89   71/88   0 0 0 30 20 60 

Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 63. Light NE wind. 

Thursday...Sunny. High 90. SE wind 5-10 mph. 

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. Light SE wind. 

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 88. SE wind 10-15 mph. 

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the evening. Low 70. SE wind 5-10 mph. 

Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 87. SE wind 10-15 mph. 

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity 

Thursday
9-3-09 
Sunny 
63/90/0 
Wind: SE 5-10 
H.I.: 85-90 
U.V.: 11- Very High 

Friday
9-4-09
Partly Cloudy w/ Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms 
67/88/30 
Wind: SE 10-15 
H.I.: 90-95 
U.V.: 10- High 

Saturday 
9-5-09 
Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms Likely 
70/87/60 
Wind: SE 10-15 
H.I.: 90-95 
U.V.: 9- High 

Sunday 
9-6-09 
Partly Cloudy w/ a Decent Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms 
72/89/40 
Wind: SE 10-15 
H.I.: 92-97 
U.V.: 10- High 

Monday 
9-7-09 
Labor Day 
Partly Cloudy w/ Scatterd Showers & Thunderstorms...A Typical Late Summer Day 
71/92/30 
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100 
U.V.: 11- Very High 

Tuesday 
9-8-09 
Partly Cloudy w/ a Slight Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms 
72/93/20 
Wind: SE 10-15 
H.I.: 98-103 
U.V.: 11- Very High 

Wednesday 
9-9-09 
Partly Cloudy w/ a Slight Chance of Showers & Thunderstorms 
73/95/20 
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 100-105 
U.V.: 11- Very High 

...Marine Forecast from the National Weather Service... 

Tonight...Northeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.
 
Thursday...Northeast-East winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. 

Thursday Night...Southeast winds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot. 

Friday...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

Friday Night...East winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

Saturday...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. 

Thursday Tides: 

Low: 9:54a.m. 9:56p.m.
High: 4:08a.m. 2:02p.m. 

...Climate Data for Lake Charles from the National Weather Service... 
 Wednesday, September 2, 2009 

Low: 64 Normal Low: 72 Record Low: 59- 1903 
High: 88 Normal High: 90 Record High: 101- 2000 

Precipitation: 
Rainfall Today: 0.00" 
Month to Date: 0.00" Normal Month to Date: 0.38" 
Year to Date: 41.72" Normal Year to Date: 38.47" 

Sunrise Thursday: 6:51a.m.
Sunset Thursday: 7:33p.m. 

Good night and God bless!!! 
-DM-

Refreshing to Say the Least...1 Year Anniversary of Gustav...A New Tropical System is Born...

Tuesday, September 1, 2009
                                                                                                                                                
Today marks the 1 year anniversary of Hurricane Gustav. Gustav was the 2nd named storm of the 2008 season to affect the area. It came almost a month after Tropical Storm Edouard affected the area in early August. It would be the worst storm to strike the state since Rita in 2005. Gustav was a category 4 at peak intensity near Cuba. Gustav developed on August 25 South of the Dominican Republic, and it rapidly strengthened as it moved through the Eastern Caribbean. Its first landfall was over Haiti as a 90 mph-category 1 hurricane. Gustav weakened due to its interaction with land and some shear from the SW. It then targeted Jamaica as a tropical storm. The wind field began to expand and the size of the storm nearly doubled over the island nation.


After departing Jamaica, Gustav strengthened at a steady state once again attaining hurricane status on August 29 at 4pm. From this point on, Gustav would move towards Cuba, and would undergo a period of rapid intensification ramping up to a very dangerous category 4 storm with 150 mph sustained winds with gusts into the category 5 territory near Western Cuba. Interaction with Cuba weakened Gustav, but only slightly because it moved over a very narrow strip of land. It emerged into the SE Gulf of Mexico on the night of August 30. It was forecasted to move towards the Central Gulf Coast generally towards Louisiana, and remain a very intense hurricane with a high oceanic heating content in place across the Gulf. However, steady weakening occurred as the storm moved further away from Cuba and towards Louisiana. It is still somewhat uncertain as to why this occurred. The storm was forecasted to make landfall on Monday, September 1 as a major hurricane somewhere along the Louisiana coast.                                                                                                     



The storm weakened from a category 4 with 140 mph winds as it emerged off of Cuba to a strong 110 mph category 2 storm at landfall. Landfall was at Cocodrie, LA around 9:30a.m. on Monday, September 1. Gustav weakened and moved further inland during the day pretty much bisecting the state on a NW heading. The storm tracked up Highway 90 to Morgan City still as a hurricane. Then, the eye of Gustav crossed I-10 near Breaux Bridge. Gustav slowly weakened during the remainder of the day, and finally became a tropical storm over Central Louisiana near Alexandria. It was still a hurricane as it passed right over Opelousas. Hurricane force winds were felt across a good portion of South Louisiana into Central Louisiana mainly in Acadiana and across the Atchafalaya Basin to Baton Rouge. Most of SW Louisiana didn't experience hurricane force winds, but tropical storm force winds were felt across all of SW Louisiana.                                                                                      

                                                                                                                                              
Damage was widespread across the hurricane force wind area, and Baton Rouge had major tree and power line damage with winds in the 90-95 mph range. As Gustav weakened across NW Louisiana overnight Monday into Tuesday September 2 heavy rains and isolated tornadoes occurred across much of the state. The heavy rain and tornado threat continued for a few days after the storm. One of the isolated tornadoes, and the strongest tornado associated with Gustav struck Mamou. 2 fatalities occurred with the tornado which hit during the early morning hours of the 3rd. Heavy rainfall occurred across the entire area with heaviest amounts along and to the East of where the center tracked through Acadiana and Central Louisiana. Some rainfall totals were near 25" across Rapides, Allen, Evangeline and Avoyelles Parishes. In all, Gustav was directly responsible for 112 deaths, 7 of those were here in Louisiana. There were 41 indirect fatalities in the state from Gustav. Gustav resulted in $4.3 billion damage in the United States alone.                    

For more on Gustav check out a report from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles:


NWS Lake Charles Hurricane Gustav Report 
                                                                                       
Also included, is the comprehensive report from the National Hurricane Center:


NHC Hurricane Gustav Comprehensive Report


See the forecast discussion below:    


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We couldn't have asked for a much better start to the month of September and to the start of meteorological autumn. We're still about 3 weeks away from astronomical autumn. Very pleasant temperatures were in place across the area today with low humidity in the 30-40% range this afternoon. Afternoon highs were below the 90 degree threshold after morning lows in the quite comfortable range of the mid 60s. The high clouds that were present last evening, pushed to the SE overnight and temperatures were able to make it to the mid 60s. The high clouds filtered the sunshine from time to time today, but other than the present cirrus canopy it was a great day for the 1st of September. It only gets better tonight as clear skies and light winds are in place with Canadian high pressure dominating the weather across the forecast area. While likely not breaking any record lows, it will be very cool for this time of year with most locations cooler than 65 by morning. The coldest readings will be found in the usual cool spots across Northern portions of the forecast area with lows in the upper 50s. Lower 60s look like a good bet here along the I-10 corridor while the coastline will be slightly warmer in the mid 60s.
                                                                                                                                              

Another Splendid September Day is in store for Wednesday as the dry air and low humidity continues. High temperatures should once again remain below normal with most readings topping out in the upper 80s. Some more high cloudiness can't be ruled out across the area especially with Hurricane Jemina making landfall over Baja California. The high clouds in advance in Jimena will move from W to E across Texas and into our area due to the fast winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere. This will be the only fly in the ointment once again, with no mention of rainfall. Another cool night is in store with Thursday morning lows in the mid 60s again.                                                                    

Thursday will be a day of transition. The overall flow in the upper levels will remain out of the NW. The controlling high pressure will slowly slide East of the Mississippi River, and the remnants of the cold front over the Gulf will drift back to the North. Initially, only a subtle increase of low-level moisture is expected. Mid and low-level cloudiness will increase later in the day as a result of this. An approaching disturbance embedded in the NW flow aloft will move through the ARK-LA-TEX region, but it will still be too dry to introduce rain chances on Thursday, but this will aid in cloud development. Temperatures will only undergo a modest moderation during the afternoon as they aren't that far off normal at this time. They will slowly return to normal levels through the forecast period. A more noticeable moderation in temperatures is expected with morning lows once the low-level flow turns back off the Gulf.                                                                                      
For Friday through Labor Day weekend, the status quo for early September is anticipated. Rain chances return to the forecast on Friday as deeper low level moisture becomes dominant across the area. The refreshing mornings will be a memory by the weekend with lows warming back into the lower 70s. Upper 60s look like a good call for Friday morning, as somewhat drier air hangs on for one more morning. More disturbances rotating through the NWly flow will affect the region, and this will aid in shower and thunderstorm development during peak heating hours beginning Friday with better chances on Saturday and Sunday. For Labor Day itself, a typical late summer day is expected with normal temperatures as well. The rain chances for the weekend don't appear to be too robust at this point, with just a normal to slightly above normal chance expected. Hot and humid weather rounds out this forecast period on Tuesday.
                                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                            Tropics: The suspect area (Invest 94L) I have been discussing the last few days was investigated this afternoon by the Hurricane Hunters. They found that the area situated near the Northern Lesser Antilles had a closed yet broad low-level circulation. The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Erika at 4p.m. this afternoon. It had 50 mph winds on the initial advisory at 4p.m. (21Z). It has continued to get better organized, and is in a strengthening state tonight. The winds were raised a bit on the 10p.m. advisory. As far as the future for this season's 5th named storm, that is a bit cloudy at this time. Erika currently sits in an environment that favors slow development, and this should be the case for the next 24-36 hours. After that, all indications are that Erika will be moving into a high shear environment in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Strong upper level winds in that area, may result in weakening at the end of the week. The current 5 day intensity forecast keeps Erika below hurricane strength, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Erika could obtain hurricane status over the next couple of days before the forecasted weakening trend ensues Friday. Erika is currently moving very little, but it should begin to move steadily off to the WNW on Wednesday. There is some uncertainty as far as the future track with Erika as well. Models are diverging at this time. Some of the models fizzle Erika out completely near Cuba this weekend, while a few of them upgrade her into a formidable hurricane over the weekend. Some models bring her on a more Westerly course through the Southern Caribbean while some turn her more to the NW and lead to a track that would ultimately parallel the U.S. East coast as Bill and Danny did. It is too early to make a call or whether or not this reaches the Gulf, but this doesn't appear likely at this point.


Here is the 10p.m. advisory on Tropical Storm Erika from the National Hurricane Center:


Tropical Storm Erika 10p.m. Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Latitude: 17.5N
Longitude: 57.6W
This is about 365 miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands.


Winds: 60 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward to 120 miles from the center.


Motion: Nearly Stationary at this time. However, a WNW motion between 5-10 mph is expected on Wednesday. On the current forecast track, Erika should pass to the NE of the Leeward Islands on Thursday.


Pressure: 29.65" or 1004 mb.


Forecast Track for Erika


Satellite Image


Model Data


Elsewhere in the tropics...A tropical wave and associated low pressure has just emerged off the coast of Africa is currently situated over the Cape Verde Islands. The system currently shows some sign of organization. Further maturation of this system is possible over the next few days as it moves generally in a W to WNW direction at 10-15 mph through Thursday.


In the Eastern Pacific, powerful Hurricane Jimena is weakening as she approaches Baja California tonight. Conditions are deteriorating rapidly over Baja California. Jimena has weakened considerably over the course of the day as it approaches land and moves into some cooler waters. It was on the verge of becoming a category 5 this morning with 155 mph winds, but currently is a category 3 with 115 mph winds. Jimena will move inland over the Western coast of Baja California Wednesday morning, and parallel the coast and continue to weaken during the day. Jimena is moving on a NNW heading at this time, and this motion should continue for the next couple of days. Jimena will cross over the Baja Peninsula and weaken considerably, and slow down as well moving very little on Thursday and Friday. The remnant low will move into the Gulf of California this weekend, and moisture will stream into the Desert SW this weekend bringing some heavy rainfall. Strong winds and flooding rains along with mudslides are expected over Baja California. A dangerous storm surge and large battering waves will occur along the coast of Baja California with Jimena.


Jimena Forecast Track


That concludes the tropical update for tonight.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecasts:
LCH 62/87   64/88    67/89   0 0 0 0 0 20
LFT 61/87    63/89   66/89    0 0 0 0 0 20
BPT 64/88    66/90   68/90    0 0 0 0 0 20
AEX 58/86    60/88   63/91    0 0 0 0 0 30
POE 59/86    61/89   64/90    0 0 0 0 0 30
ARA 63/88    65/88   68/89    0 0 0 0 0 20


Tonight...Clear and Cool. Low 62. Light North wind.


Wednesday...Sunny. High 87. NE 5-10 mph.


Wednesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 64. Light NE wind.


Thursday...Mostly Sunny. High 88. East wind 10 mph.


Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. Light SE wind.


Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 89. SE wind 10-15 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Wednesday
9-2-09
Sunny
62/87/0
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 11- Very High


Thursday
9-3-09
Sunny
64/88/0
Wind: E 10-15
H.I.: N/A
U.V.: 11- Very High


Friday
9-4-09
Partly Cloudy w/a Slight Chance of a Shower or T-Storm
67/89/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 87-92
U.V.: 11- Very High


Saturday
9-5-09
Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ a Chance of Showers & T-Storms A Little More Likely
69/88/40
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95
U.V.: 10- High


Sunday
9-6-09
Partly Cloudy w/ a Chance...A Typical Late Summer Day
70/88/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.:93-98
U.V.: 10- High


Monday
9-7-09
Labor Day
Partly Cloudy...Will it Rain on the BBQ?
72/91/30
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High


Tuesday
9-8-09
Partly Cloudy w/ a Slight Chance of a Shower or T-Storm
73/93/20
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100
U.V.: 11- Very High


…Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.


Wednesday...Northeast winds 5-15 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.


Wednesday Night...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot.


Thursday...NE/Ewinds around 5 knots. Seas 1 foot.


Thursday Night...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.


Friday...Southeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Wednesday Tides:


Low: 9:37a.m. 9:28p.m.
High: 4:09a.m. 12:59p.m.




…Climate Data for Tuesday, September 1, 2009...
Low: 67        Normal Low: 72        Record Low: 63-1911
High: 87       Normal High: 90       Record High: 100-1909


Precipitation:


Rain Today: 0.00” 
Month to Date: 0.00” Normal Month to Date: 0.19” 
Year to Date: 41.72” Normal Year to Date: 38.28”


Sunrise Wednesday: 6:50a.m.
Sunset Wednesday: 7:34p.m.


Good night and God bless!!! -DM-

A Splendid Start to September...

Monday, August 31, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...A bit of history to start our discussion today. On this date back in 2000, many locations across SW Louisiana and SE Texas recorded their hottest day ever as a strong area of high pressure dominated the weather from late August into early September. It was the hottest week ever at LCH with readings of 98 or better every day from August 29th through September 5th. A cold front finally came through on the 6th to bring us back to the reality of September. The record high of 107 on August 31 set the all-time record high for Lake Charles. The previous record was 106 on June 27, 1930. Here is a listing of the high temperatures at the reporting sites across the area for August 31, 2000. 

Lake Charles- 107***

Lafayette- 103

Beaumont-108***

Alexandria- 108

New Iberia- 103***

All locations may not have established an all-time record high for the date of August 31, but an all-time record high was established at each reporting station during the week long period of August 29-September 5. 

***All-time record highs at these locations.

Now onto the forecast discussion...The cool front has pushed into the coastal waters tonight. Drier and cooler air is filtering in across the area as a light Northerly flow is present at this time. The only fly in the ointment is a canopy of cirrus clouds streaming across the area from West to East. This is due to the close proximity of the cool front, and the lagging dry and cool air. The clouds will keep Southern portions of the area from reaching maximum cooling potential. Forecast models indicate mid 60s, but we will have a hard time reaching these values since the clouds will be slow to clear out along and South of the I-10 corridor. The air will continue to get drier with dew points dropping well into the 60s across the entire area overnight. The low temperature forecast is a complicated one with said cirrus canopy in place. The clouds will move to the ESE through the night, and the timing of their departure will be key in determining how cool we get. For now, I will forecast upper 60s for Lake Charles with the clouds expected to thin around daybreak. Coastal locations will likely hold up in the 70s because of the cloud cover persisting through the night, while areas further North will have no problem radiating down into the low to mid 60s where skies are clear. Cirrus clouds or not, it will still feel very pleasant outside for late summer, and a heck of a lot better than it did this time 9 years ago. Also, quite a contrast to just one year ago when Hurricane Gustav was bearing down on the coast of South Louisiana. It made landfall during the early morning hours on September 1 near Cocodrie. I will talk more about this major hurricane tomorrow.

High pressure dominates the Tuesday-Thursday periods with lower humidity, and Sunny skies. The cirrus clouds currently in place will push further South clearing the area early in in the day leaving us with clear skies. Warm afternoons are in store with readings between 85 and 90, but with the lower humidity it will feel very pleasant, and the heat index will be non-existent. The coolest mornings are yet to come. Wednesday and/or Thursday morning will be the coolest this go around with clear skies and light winds expected during the overnight radiational cooling processes will take effect. Overnight minimums will range from near 60 in the coolest locations to around 63-64 here along I-10, to 68-70 at the coast. The drier and cooler air will begin to erode by week's end as what's the controlling Canadian high pushes towards the East coast. This will turn winds around from offshore to onshore, commencing the typical onshore flow we expect in late summer. Rain chances will not return until this time, and when they do it will be on the usual hit or miss basis. This should occur on or about Friday. The return flow will be rather subtle at first on Thursday afternoon, but become more pronounced by Friday, hence the return of rain chances at that time. Temperatures will begin to moderate as well as the humidity returns with readings warming to near normal by Friday.

Going into Labor Day weekend deeper moisture will flow into the region, thus rain chances remain with us as daily sea breeze activity and some minor upper level impulses rotate through the area embedded in the continuing NW flow aloft. It should be a typical late summer weekend with about an average coverage of shower and thunderstorm and seasonable temperatures. Not looking for a wash out by any means, so any Labor Day weekends plans you have should be a "go". There is a system downstream that could affect could potentially raise rain chances late in the weekend into early next week. I will discuss it more in the tropical section, but touch on it briefly here since it may have an impact down the road. Powerful Hurricane Jimena is churning in the Eastern Pacific and approaching Baja California. This storm on the verge of becoming a category 5 with winds currently at 155 mph. It is expected to move slowly Northward towards Baja California and make landfall there Wednesday. It will continue moving Northward through the end of the week while weakening, but the moisture from it will surge into the Desert SW this weekend. With a general W to E flow across the South expected next week, some of this moisture may be pulled to the East across the Gulf states perhaps increasing our rain chances slightly around the end of the forecast period. This is still up in the air, but stay tuned throughout the week. Models suggest a wetter pattern next week in the 8-12 day period, but this is not a forecast at this point.

The aforementioned hurricane is very bad news of course for whoever ends up taking a direct hit, but it will also have some effects on the Los Angeles area where the wild fires continue to rage tonight. They badly need some rain, and if the left over moisture from the storm could be drawn up that way, that would be a sort of cure all for the wild fires, but this doesn't appear likely based on the current track. If anything, the forecast track of this storm will only make the wild fire situation worse in Southern California. The winds will pick up due to the pressure differences associated with the persistent Desert high and the decaying cyclone. Since, they will be on the dry side of this storm, the already dry air will dry out even more possibly exacerbating the wild fire situation even further. Hopefully this will change, and they will get some relief from the wild fires soon.

Tropics: At this time, there are no active systems in the Atlantic basin, but we continue to monitor Invest 94L. This system is approaching the Lesser Antilles tonight, and conditions remain favorable for the system to develop as it moves off to the WNW around 15 mph. There are several possible scenarios with this system, and where it eventually winds up, but since it's not even an organized system as of yet, I don't read too much into that at the moment. Model output for Invest 94L is included.

 

                                                                                                                                                   

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, all is quiet for the time being. No tropical storm formation is expected through Wednesday. 

 

On the Pacific side, there is a major hurricane tonight. Hurricane Jimena is a category 4 with 155 mph. This is precisely on the verge of becoming a category 5 hurricane. It is currently situated about 245 miles SE of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Jimena is moving off to the NW around 9 mph tonight, and is expected to turn to the NNW and accelerate in forward speed through mid-week. Landfall is expected sometime Wednesday on the Baja California Peninsula as a major hurricane. The current forecast has Jimena crossing over Baja California Wednesday into Thursday and weakening into a tropical storm as it emerges into the Gulf of California Thursday afternoon. What's left of Jimena will move towards Northern Mexico on Friday, and its moisture well eventually spread into the SW United States this weekend producing some heavy rainfall and gusty winds across that area. Jimena could potentially reach category 5 strength for a time either later tonight or on Tuesday as it is on the threshold of doing as of this writing.

Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  68/89     63/89      64/88       0 0 0 0 0 0

LFT   66/89     62/89      63/89       0 0 0 0 0 0

BPT   70/90     65/90      67/90       0 0 0 0 0 0

AEX   63/89     59/88      61/90       0 0 0 0 0 0

POE   64/89     60/88      62/90       0 0 0 0 0 0

ARA   67/89     64/89      65/88       0 0 0 0 0 0

Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Pleasant. Low 68. Light NE wind.

Tuesday...Mostly Sunny. High 89. NE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 63. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 89. NE wind 10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear and Pleasant. Low 65. Light East wind.

Thursday...Sunny. High 88. Light SE wind. 

7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity 

Tuesday

9-1-09

1 year Anniversary of Hurricane Gustav

68/89/0

Wind: NE 10-15

H.I.: 85-90

U.V.: 11- Very High

Wednesday

9-2-09

 

63/89/0

Wind: NE 10

H.I.: 85-90

U.V.: 11- Very High

Thursday

9-3-09

65/88/0

Wind: SE 5-10

H.I.: 85-90

U.V.: 11- Very High

 

Friday

9-4-09

67/89/20

Wind: SE 10-15

H.I.: 88-93

U.V.: 11- Very High

Saturday 

9-5-09

69/88/30

Wind: SE 10-15

H.I.: 92-97

U.V.: 11- Very High

Sunday 

9-6-09

 

71/90/30

Wind: SSE 10-15

H.I.: 95-100

U.V.: 11- Very High

 

Monday 

9-7-09

Labor Day

73/92/30 

Wind: SSE 10-15

H.I: 95-100

U.V.: 11- Very High

...Marine Forecast from the NWS Lake Charles...

Tonight...Northeast winds 5-15 knots. Seas 1-3 feet.

Tuesday...Northeast winds 10-15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet . Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

Wednesday...Northeast winds 5-10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

Wednesday Night...NNE winds around 5 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Thursday...SE winds 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.

Tuesday Tides:

Low:  9:45a.m.   8:59p.m.

High: 4:09a.m. 11:50 a.m.

...Climate Data for Lake Charles from the National Weather Service...

Monday, August 31, 2009

Low: 73       Normal Low: 72         Record Low:    63-1968

High: 87      Normal High: 90         Record High: 107-2000

Precipitation:

Rainfall Today: 0.00"

Month to Date: 8.01"          Normal Month to Date: 4.65"

Year to Date: 41.72"           Normal Year to Date: 38.09"

 

Sunrise Tuesday: 6:50a.m.

Sunset Tuesday:  7:39p.m.

 

Good Night and God bless!

-DM-