Spring Cold Snap to Start the Week, Potential Severe Weather Highlights Second Half of the Week...

Sunday, March 31, 2019: ***March Goes Out Like a Lamb as We Roll into Feb...I mean April***

I hope this message finds you well. This final weekend of March has certainly been a tale of two seasons, maybe three!!! Saturday was warm, breezy, & humid with spotty showers until the evening when a narrow line of showers right along the front impacted almost everyone. Temperatures were nearly 80 on Saturday, but in the wake of the sharp winterlike cold front, temperatures on this overcast Sunday remained in the 50s, some 25-30 colder than that of Saturday. The overcast and windy conditions certainly made it feel even much colder than it actually was on this Sunday with apparent temperatures in the 40s throughout the day.

This is no fooling as we start April with Monday being April Fool's Day, skies clear out tonight & temperatures fall into the "I need to make a gumbo" category...as the title suggest: It'll feel more like February 1st as opposed to April 1st. Get this: temperatures will be in the mid 30s in the coldest locations to lower 40s here along I-10 while it is even in the 40s at the coast to start out April. The biting NNW wind will only decay somewhat, so we will contend with a wind chill for Monday morning as well. The apparent temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s. At least, there'll be a decent supply of sunshine to start our Monday. However, cloudiness will likely increase after lunch time as a weak disturbance moves into the region. Surface dry air is at a maximum, so while this minor disturbance may help to generate some light showers and/or drizzle, the majority of the rain will likely evaporate before reaching the ground (virga). Radar may look worse than it is actually going to be, so the prospects of any actual measurable rain is only 20%. Rainfall amounts will be a trace to a few hundredths at the most, and most of us will record a 0 in the rain column. This disturbance combined with continued CAA will thwart a significant warm up with model data suggesting highs fall short of the 60 degree threshold. The normal high for April 1 is 75.

The previously mentioned disturbance will be a quick mover, so we clear out in earnest Monday night & as winds decouple (slack off) with high pressure moving very close to the area, the stage will be set for a night of maximum radiational cooling heading into Tuesday morning. Dare I say there might be some frost? Especially North of I-10 frost seems like a good bet right around sunrise when temps will be in the low to mid 30s. Upper 30s should be just warm enough to keep those of us along I-10 out of the frost category, but maybe a patch or two in rural areas. Either way, it will be a cold start to an otherwise glorious day on Tuesday. The warm up finally ensues full throttle, but we will still fall short of the normal values with readings in the upper 60s. Tranquil weather rules the roost through Wednesday with all the Vitamin D you can stand. Still cool Wednesday morning with mid to upper 40s, but we do manage to top out in the low to mid 70s for maximums. A return flow of Gulf moisture may temper the warm up a bit, but we will certainly be in line to transition from below normal to above normal by the second half of the week.

Speaking of the second half of the work week; while a warm up commences, it may come with the prospects of our first possibility of severe weather this season. There's been a couple of isolated severe storms in the last few weeks, but this time the pattern favors perhaps something more significant. Severe weather threat or not, rain chances do return Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The culprit will be potent perturbation embedded in the generally zonal flow that could lead to rather robust ramifications for some. The marriage of this advecting short wave & cold front will lead to the development of some scattered shower activity Thursday morning as deeper moisture streams in from the Gulf, but the main thrust of this system will likely be in the afternoon hours. A line of showers & thunderstorms will congeal to our West & move through the forecast area during the afternoon & evening hours. Exact timing will be divulged as we get closer. The good news is that it should be relatively quick mover, so the mischief should terminate before we retire for the night. The associated cold front will be rather fickle, so don't expect much temperature change by Friday. If anything, it may actually be warmer on Friday than that of Thursday. We certainly make the transition back to above normal with upper 70s Thursday & we easily eclipse the 80 degree threshold Friday. Rain chances should be sequestered Friday, but not totally. A general mix of sun & clouds is in the offing. The effects of daytime heating & streaming moisture in between systems could allow for a couple pop-up showers Friday afternoon.

Now, of course, who isn't already focused on another weekend? The first weekend of April doesn't look to contain any Absolutely Awesome April weather. Saturday will likely be the better of the weekend days, but there will certainly be an opportunity for rain to occur on Saturday as well. However, at least at this juncture any activities early in the day should be fine, be it a baseball or softball game, or you just need to mow the grass. A warm & breezy day hangs in the balance; quite honestly it could be a repeat of yesterday. A more significant Spring storm system will be in transit & it effects will begin to impinge on our part of the world Saturday evening & Saturday night. Showers & thunderstorms will be present on a hit or miss basis until Sunday. This is when the next cold front crosses our corridor. Certainly expect revisions to this portion of the forecast as we get closer, but as it stands right now showers & thunderstorms will be likely Sunday. There does appear to be a severe weather element with this perturbation, but to what extent is still up for conjecture. Mild mornings & warm afternoons expected for both weekend days with lows in the mid to even upper 60s, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday could be a few degrees cooler because of the effects of more rain. There is some wonderment right now from long range model data as to whether or not this front will clear the region or if it will take a secondary surge a week from tomorrow to produce this positive result.

I will wrap this up now that I've probably put y'all to sleep. I know its quite long, but when there's a lot to discuss I can't help myself. I get in the zone & become a full-fledged nerd. Anywho, thanks for reading my spiel. Have a great Monday, & watch your back from anyone trying to pull a fast one on you for April Fools. God Bless!

-DM-

Blogs to Return Soon...

Friday, August 16, 2013

Your home for the most accurate & exclusive weather information in SW Louisiana will be right here once again very soon!

Look for the resumption of regular blog updates beginning next week!

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday Night...

Monday, January 28, 2013

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion.....It was an unseasonably warm & overcast late January day. Winds have also increased as the return flow of Gulf moisture deepens across the area. This is all in advance of the next potent storm system which is sweeping through the Great Plains and Upper MidWest at press time. This will affect SW Louisiana in the late afternoon Tuesday-early Wednesday morning time frame. Certainly, showers & thunderstorms will be prevalent across our part of the world, but will there be a severe weather threat as well? That is the main question for this forecast package, and I will answer it as best I can shortly. First, in the short-term look for a relatively uneventful Monday evening with a continuation of the overcast conditions. The atmosphere remains largely capped at this time. Low-level moisture is at a premium across the region already, and this only continue to be the case through the night. Some areas of fog will exist as we head into the Tuesday morning commute, but surface winds should stay up just enough to keep the atmosphere mixed up to preclude a significant fog threat with the exception of the coastal counties/parishes. Areas along and South of I-10 have a better chance of seeing widespread dense fog. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the aforementioned coastal areas. It is highly possible as the night wears on that the dense fog advisory could be extended further North. It is a given, however, that Mostly Cloudy and unseasonably warm conditions will continue and temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 60s. Most of the day tomorrow will remain just dry & unseasonably warm. The wind will be the big story for the day on Tuesday due to the increasing pressure gradient in response to the developing/approaching storm system. Winds out of a Southerly direction will continue on the order of 15-20 mph at times with higher gusts. A slight chance of a brief shower or two can't be ruled out by early afternoon, but rain chances don't really ramp up until late afternoon or evening. It may well still be dry across much of the area for evening drive time. This appears to be a set up that will allow for an accelerating system across this area.

Time frame for shower & thunderstorm activity looks to be from around 6p.m. to 6a.m. The current trough which resides across the Rocky Mountains will advance Eastward, and traverse SW Louisiana Tuesday Night. This will clash with the ample amounts of moisture we have to generate shower & thunderstorm activity across the area most likely sunset. Activity will be scattered in nature at first in the pre-frontal environment. The enhanced Jet Stream activity along with a surface low moving from SW to NE along the cold front will also add more instability to the equation, thus the severe weather threat. The entire forecast area is highlighted for at least a slight risk of severe thunderstorm activity. The northern extremity of the forecast area is pegged for a moderate risk. It does appear that the greatest threat for severe weather will reside safely to the NE of our area. A significant tornado outbreak looks to be unfolding from NE Louisiana through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. I'm sure it will be a long night for someone here across the South. Here at home, certainly some severe storms are possible, but from everything I have perused this should be on an isolated nature. Heavy rain looks like a good bet for all of us, but some of the storms along & ahead of the front could become rather boisterous producing damaging winds, large hail, or an isolated tornado. Damaging winds are the main threat with our storms, and to narrow down a time frame even further, the best chance for this looks be between 10p.m. for the extreme NW portion of the forecast area, to 4a.m. for the extreme SE portion. I will target 12-2a.m. for the Lake Area. I would advise to go ahead and have your severe weather plan of action in place for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning since this will more than likely come by the time most of us are asleep. Check your NOAA Weather Radio to make sure it's in alert mode. You might want to leave your TV or radio on all night, so that you can be informed that way if you don't have a NOAA Weather Radio. Flashlights & battery-powered radios/TVs/your cell phone are good items to have as well should their be a loss of power. Aside from this slight risk of severe weather, brief heavy rainfall is likely. This system is a fast mover, so that will in turn, limit rainfall totals. Soil moisture content across the area is still very high, and we don't need a whole lot of rain given the recent flooding, but should there be any flooding it should be localized & mostly be in urban & low-lying areas. All of this quickly progresses Eastward through the night, and the storms will be a distant memory (hopefully nothing more) by sunrise Wednesday. Some post-frontal shower activity is possible for a few hours behind the front, but much drier & much cooler air will quickly be taking over. The boundary layer moisture will be quickly scoured out as well, thus eliminating a prolonged period of overrunning. I have included some graphical representation of the severe weather outlook for Day 2 (Tuesday).

The remainder of the forecast period offers a period of tranquility. This will be welcomed for sure by all involved with the Super Bowl activities & the plethora of Mardi Gras activities ongoing as well. Let us not forget it is Rodeo weekend here in Lake Charles as well. High pressure will ridge into the area from the Western U.S. as the day progresses Wednesday. Morning clouds will give way to sunny skies by around lunch time, if not sooner. Temperatures will return to near seasonal levels for late January, so after one more day of highs in the mid to potentially upper 70s Tuesday, we'll see highs back into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday. Chilly weather is on tap for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning with clear skies & light winds in place thanks to the ridge of high pressure. Lows will be very close to freezing for Thursday Morning. Abundant sunshine will result in a quick warm up with highs reaching the mid 60s...nice & refreshing! Slight moderation begins Friday, but it will continue to be very nice. Morning lows will be in the 30s once again while highs reach the low to mid 60s. Subtle changes for the weekend. Another, but weaker cold front, will be heading our way Saturday. This will create very little weather across the way, perhaps just scare up some clouds. No rain as moisture will remain very limited due to lack of a prolonged return flow. Temperatures won't change all that much either. Seasonal temperature values are expected both Saturday & Sunday. Sunday looks super for any of your outdoor Super Bowl Sunday plans. Normal temperatures for early February are low 40s for lows and low to mid 60s for highs. Rounding out the forecast period on Monday, clouds will increase as a progressive pattern will be in place. Return flow of low-level moisture will advance across the area, but at this time rain chances are not expected to return until beyond this forecast period with the next front scheduled around the middle of next week. The big time Arctic outbreaks that have been visiting the Northern third of our great nation look to remain away from SW Louisiana for the time being. It is possible some modified Arctic air will visit the area in the day 10-14 period, but this is no concern for us right now. We're in fine shape after this bump in the road over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned for more!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH   63/77  54/65  32/62  10 40 90 10 0 0
CAM  68/73  60/66  41/65  10 40 90 10 0 0
LFT    63/76  55/64  33/62  10 30 90 20 0 0
ARA   65/77  55/65  35/85  10 30 90 20 0 0
BPT    66/78  53/66  34/64  10 40 90 10 0 0
JAS     62/77  53/62  30/62  10 50 90 10 0 0
AEX   62/78  51/61  29/60  10 50 90 10 0 0
POE    62/78  51/61  30/61  10 50 90 10 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Fog developing after midnight. Low 63. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday...Patchy Fog early. Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 40% chance of showers & thunderstorms mainly after 4p.m. High 77. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty. 

Tuesday Night...Cloudy w/ showers & thunderstorms likely. Some severe storms possible w/ damaging wind & isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall expected as well. Rainfall totals around 1" with isolated 2" amounts. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 54. SSW wind 15-20 mph & gusty becoming WNW at 15-20 mph & gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 90%. 

Wednesday...Morning clouds giving way to Sunny skies by noon. Cooler. High 65. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear & Cold. Low 32. Light NW wind. 

Thursday...Sunny. High 62. North wind 5-10 mph. 

Thursday Night...Clear & Seasonably Cold. Low 36. Light NE wind. 

Friday...Sunny. High 64. NE wind 5-10 mph. 

Friday Night...Clear. Low 41. East wind 5 mph.

Saturday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 67. SE wind 5-10 mph, becoming NW 10 mph in the afternoon.


Tuesday 1/29/13 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog

Temp: 63
Rain: 10%
Wind: S 7

9a.m.

Weather: Cloudy & Breezy

Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12

Noon

Weather:  Cloudy & Windy












Temp: 73
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15


3p.m.

Weather: Cloudy w/ some Scattered Showers Developing

Temp:76
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 18

6p.m.

Weather: Cloudy w/ Showers & Thunderstorms Becoming More Organized













Temp: 72
Rain: 40%
Wind: SSE 15


9p.m.

Weather: Showers & Thunderstorms Likely

Temp: 70
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSE 15 


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
1-29-13











Low:  63
High: 77
Rain:  40% PM...90% Overnight
Wind: SSE 15-20


Wednesday
1-30-13

Low:  54
High: 65
Rain:  90% Before Daybreak...0% During the Day
Wind: NNW 10-15


Thursday
1-31-13

Low:  32
High: 62
Rain:  0%
Wind: N 5-10


Friday
2-1-13










Low:  36
High: 64
Rain:  0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Saturday
2-2-13
Groundhog Day

Low:  41
High: 67
Rain:  0%
Wind: SSE/NNW 5-10
 

Sunday
2-3-13
Super Bowl Sunday...Ravens vs. 49ers...New Orleans

Low:  43
High: 65
Rain:  0%
Wind: NE 5-10



Monday
2-4-13

Low:  45
High: 68
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 10-15


...Marine Forecast...

*Dense Fog Advisory through 9a.m. Tuesday.*

*Small Craft Exercise Caution through Early Tuesday.*

Tonight: Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy dense fog in the evening...then areas of dense fog after midnight. Visibility 1 nm or less.

Tuesday: South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 5 feet in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less early in the morning...then areas of fog in the late morning and afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Wednesday: Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet then 3 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday: East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot.

Friday: East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night: East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday: Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:        9:51a.m.    10:24p.m.               
High:       2:30a.m.      4:41p.m.                


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    168.58'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Monday, January 28, 2013



Low:                64
Normal Low:  43
Record Low:   21-1897
High:               76
Normal High:  62
Record High:   81-1912

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:               11.32"
Normal Month to Date:   4.76"
Year to Date:                 11.32"
Normal Year to Date:     4.76"
Record:                           3.00"- 1916

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2012)

Low:     46
High:    69
Rain:    0.00"

5 Years Ago (2008)

Low:    35
High:   67
Rain:   0.00"


10 Years Ago (2003)

Low:    45
High:   68
Rain:    0.02"


Sunrise Tuesday:   7:05a.m.
Sunset  Tuesday:   5:48p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:35a.m.-6:18p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Sunday February 3

New Moon- Sunday February 10

First Quarter- Sunday February 17

Full Moon- Monday February 25


Have a great Tuesday, & stay tuned for more on the impinging severe weather & God Bless!
-DM-

Unseasonable Warmth Through the Weekend...

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog. 

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Don't think we should brag too much here in SW Louisiana, but it might be hard not to when you compare our above normal warmth to the bitterly cold Arctic air mass across the Northern 1/3 of the country. This Arctic air may eventually reach SW Louisiana down the road, but not in the next few days. We do have some changes to discuss with our weather, however, so let's get to it.

It has been a day of generally overcast conditions and continued unseasonable warmth. Daytime highs generally reached the lower 70s across much of the area. We did manage to have a decent amount of sunshine in the mid-late afternoon hours. Morning fog was not as much a factor this morning as it was on Wednesday thanks to stronger boundary layer mixing via surface winds. A weakening late January cold front is in transit at press time, and this front will continue to decay as it approaches this forecast area during the day Friday. For tonight, look for a quiet night for the most part. We will deal with re-development of the low cloud (stratus) deck & also have to mention the prospect of fog once again. Although, I do believe it will be more like it was this morning, and not be excessively dense in most areas. Sure, there will be some areas where it is more foggy than others, but for the most part tonight will not be prime conditions for fog formation. The unseasonable warmth will continue as well as the surface flow continues to be straight off the Gulf waters. Overnight lows will generally be closer to what our average daytime high is for this time of year....upper 50s to lower 60s. Friday will continue to offer much of the same conditions with highs reaching the low to mid 70s once again as the weak cold front continues to only slowly sag Southward while the weakening continues. (frontlysis). I suppose I should mention a very slight chance of some sprinkles or a light shower, but no big deal.

The final weekend of January 2013 will be a decent one, probably the 2nd best weekend so far this year. The weakening front will wash out virtually overhead, but will do little to affect our way. Perhaps, there might be one or two small, brief showers Saturday, but at this point I believe the chances are too negligible to even mention in the actual forecast. Cloud cover may be rather prevalent especially the first half of the day before somewhat drier air moves in to scour out the cloudiness. That should set the stage for an afternoon filled with plenty of sunshine & a just a slight reduction in maximum temperatures. Highs will be back to the mid 60s to around 70. Sunday be the reverse of Saturday, meaning drier air will be in place in the morning before the return flow kicks up again in earnest, bringing back low-level moisture & cloud cover for the afternoon, but we remain dry. So, your outdoor weekend plans look just fine! Sunday's temperatures will continue to be above the norm for late January with low to mid 70s for highs afternoon a morning start around the 50 degree threshold. There's always a lot to do around here this time of year with Mardi Gras getting revved up & crawfish season in full force now. Of course, it is a great time to be in Louisiana, and we will have a lot of visitors to the state over the next couple weeks with the Super Bowl & Mardi Gras. Hopefully, Mother Nature will cooperate the whole time.

That would not appear to be so as we head into next week, as it stands right now anyway. Model discrepancy is wreaking havoc on trying to forecast with any accuracy beyond about Monday really. I believe it is safe to go ahead and add small rain chances to the forecast for Monday as deeper Gulf moisture pulls in over the area, while the next trough advances & deepens out West. It certainly seems almost a certainty at this point, that the Jet Stream will be digging once again, and unlike this week, it will be digging to our West again. The unseasonably warm late January weather will continue to reside over SW Louisiana, until we get the trough to advance into and past our area. The active Jet Stream will dig to the SE and the previously active Subtropical Jet Stream will get energized once again by Tuesday & Wednesday. This will result in short waves (disturbances) developing and rotating through the area in advance of the main trough. This will increase rain chances for Tuesday & especially Wednesday. Models diverge on how strong the system will be & the timing of it as well. For now, a blend is perhaps the best course of action. There is certainly a chance we could have some strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday as the latest cold front swings through the area, but this is something that will need further fine tuning given the large discrepancies in the models. I will not mention this at this time, and will reserve that right to later forecasts after the weekend. Rainfall totals are in question as well. One model has generally had a wet bias this winter, while the other has a dry bias, and that is presumed to be the case once again. This doesn't look anything like the previous rainfall event between the 8th and 16th, but it could produce a 1-2" rain across the area. Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs through Wednesday, and lows may climb into the lower 60s by Tuesday & Wednesday with plenty of low-level moisture in place resulting in high dew points across the area. Fog will also be possible each morning Monday-Wednesday, but there looks to be enough atmospheric mixing to keep it from being a major issue.

Model divergence rearing its ugly head at the end of the period presents a somewhat questionable forecast for the end of the period. Some model output suggests the mid-week front slowing down & hanging around into Thursday which might keep rain chances going, however, other & what I feel are the most reliable models show the front clearing the area Wednesday afternoon with a much cooler & drier air mass spilling into the region by Wednesday Night. This would set us up for a quiet end to the month of January on Thursday. Temperatures are also in question. The pattern favors at least some modified Arctic air invading the region, however, models don't really show anything cooler than we've already experienced this winter. In light of this, I will once again blend the forecast. That is, I will reflect a return to below normal temperatures, but not as cold as it could potentially be. Hard to believe it will February a week from tomorrow, and then the Super Bowl next weekend. An early glance at the forecast shows dry but cold weather in place with the potential for some freezing temperatures, but that of course, is still beyond the scope of the 7 day forecast & is considered to be hogwash at this time. I don't believe we are done with winter around here; we typically need to make it to the 2nd half of February before we can turn the corner towards Spring. In closing, a little climatology note regarding rainfall...The all-time record rainfall for the month of January at Lake Charles is 14.29" in 1991, and so far this year we have received officially 11.32" of rain. We could still break the monthly record depending on how much additional rain we receive next week. The good news is at least, we have had a week now with no rain to give our rivers & other flooded areas a chance to dry out. Many areas have received over 15" of rain this month. I will have a summary on that in the coming days.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  57/73  55/68  51/71   0 10 10 10 0 0
CAM  61/68  62/70 58/68   0 10 10 10 0 0 
LFT   55/74  56/68  50/72   0 10 10 10 0 0
ARA  60/73  57/69  52/72  0 10 10 10 0 0
BPT   60/75  54/71  53/73   0 10 10 10 0 0
JAS   54/72   50/67  48/70  0 10 10 10 0 0 
AEX  53/73  50/66  47/68   0 20 20 10 0 0
POE  53/73  50/66  47/69   0 20 20 10 0 0



Tonight...Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Patchy Fog after midnight. Low 57. South wind 5-10 mph. 

Friday...Early Morning Patchy Fog otherwise Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm. High 73. SSW wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night....Mostly Cloudy & just slightly cooler. Low 55. SW wind 5-10 mph, becoming West 10 mph toward sunrise.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy to Mostly Sunny. High 68. NW wind 10-15 mph becoming NE in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...Clear. Low 51. Light East wind. 

Sunday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 71. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Sunday Night...Partly Cloudy w/ areas of fog developing after midnight. Low 58. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday...Areas of Fog early, then Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers mainly during the afternoon. High 72. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Monday Night...Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. Low 60. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday...Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & a few thunderstorms. High 74. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.



Friday 1/21/11 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ Areas of Fog

Temp:57
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 6
W.C. N/A

9a.m.

Weather: Partly To Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 62
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSW 11
W.C. N/A

Noon

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 12
W.C.:N/A

3p.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy 

Temp: 73
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSW 14
W.C.:N/A

6p.m.

Weather: Cloudy

Temp: 70
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 7
W.C.: N/A

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 64
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 8
W.C.: N/A


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
1-25-13

Low:  57
High: 73
Rain:  10%
Wind: SSW 10-15
W.C.: N/A


Saturday
1-26-13

Low:  55
High: 68
Rain: 10%
Wind: NW/NE1 0-15
W.C.: N/A


Sunday
1-27-13

Low:  51
High: 71
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 10-15
W.C.: N/A


Monday
1-28-13

Low:  58
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
W.C.: N/A


Tuesday
1-29-13

Low:   61
High:  74
Rain:  30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
W.C.:  N/A


Wednesday
1-30-13

Low:  62
High: 70
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25
W.C.: N/A


Thursday
1-31-13

Low:  35
High: 54
Rain:  0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 25-35


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Friday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog.

Saturday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Areas of fog early in the morning.

Saturday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 2 feet after midnight.

Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Sunday Night...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Monday...Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Monday Night...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Tuesday...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms

...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:            7:44a.m.         8:52p.m.      
High:                         3:44p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    169.21'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, January 24, 2013


Low:                48
Normal Low:   43
Record Low:    12-1948
High:                72
Normal High:   62
Record High:    85-1914

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:              11.32"
Normal Month to Date:   4.15"
Year to Date:                 11.32"
Normal Year to Date:      4.15"
Record:                           6.60"- 1915

Sensible Weather Observed:

Fog


One Year Ago (2012)

Low:      54
High:     66
Rain:     0.21"


5 Years Ago (2008)

Low:     42
High:    49
Rain:    0.52"

10 Years Ago (2003)

Low:     23
High:    42
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   7:07a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   5:44p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:37a.m.-6:14p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Saturday January 26

Last Quarter- Sunday February 3

New Moon- Sunday February 10

First Quarter- Sunday February 17


Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-

Tranquil Weather for Final Full Week of October...

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Click below for the latest version of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Before I get to the weather, the usual business at hand, I want to make a brief, exciting personal announcement! As you already know, I tied the knot earlier this year, and it's been an amazing 8 months already with beautiful, smoking hot wife! However, that's not all...God has been so good, and has blessed us more than words could ever describe! I am proud to announce that Lucy & I are expecting our first child in May. Lucy is about 12 weeks pregnant, and little baby is progressing quite nicely so far. I will keep all of you updated as we go along. Please keep us in your prayers & thoughts as we walk this amazing journey & prepare to bring this new life into the world & become parents. Now onto the forecast...


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The weather for the last few days has been as beautiful as my wife! One of those two will not be nearly as beautiful as we go through the work week, and it's not my wife. The controlling area of high pressure is already exiting stage right, and we have seen an increase in low-level moisture on this Sunday. Morning lows were about 6-12 degrees warmer on average across the area this morning. We were in the upper 40s on Saturday, and readings were near 60 here at Lake Charles this morning. After a cloud-free Friday & Saturday, we have seen the return of some fairweather cumulus clouds this afternoon, but all in all it has been a beautiful Sunday as well. Sundays are always more beautiful when the Saints win! It has been seasonably warm with highs in the lower 80s on the average. A dry pattern will continue overall for much of the week with no real weather systems to speak of. We will retain an onshore flow as surface high pressures will be absent across the area, but remain in place aloft. This means that we will see temperatures return to normal to above normal for late October. Morning lows will be in the 60s while afternoon highs remain in the low to mid 80s as the Gulf waters greatly influence our weather. Late night/early morning patchy fog is certainly possible in this pattern, but given the relatively dry ground, I don't foresee anything of significance to even mention in the official forecast. Skies will generally be Partly Cloudy each day through at least Thursday.

Changes are expected as we round out the work week, and more specifically next weekend. However, this far out there is always a question of timing and to what extent? Friday should certainly see a more substantial increase in cloud cover, and surface winds will likely increase as well. This, as a strong & deepening trough will be advancing out of the Rocky Mountain region. This will further enhance moisture across the forecast area, and at this time it appears that it is necessary to insert a small chance of rain for the Friday time frame. However, upper level ridging will largely keep the atmosphere capped, so I don't expect much more than just some isolated & brief shower activity mainly due to streaming Gulf moisture. The advancing trough will set the stage for the strongest cold front of the season to make its way through the forecast area on Saturday. Like its predecessor, this front doesn't look to be a major rain producer across the area at this time. Better moisture & convergence should be in place in the vicinity of the front, and at that time we is when we will likely see our best chance for showers & thunderstorms. The modes differ on the timing of the front, with some showing an arrival as early as Friday, while others holding the front back until Saturday middle of the day. Given the strength of this front, the faster solution may end up winning out, but for now I will take the middle of the road solution reflecting frontal passage overnight Friday into Saturday. At this time, I believe the best chance for shower & thunderstorm activity will come well after all of Friday Night's important High School Football games.

Behind the front, much colder air will begin to infiltrate the region replacing the warm & humid air mass that will engulf the region in the pre-frontal environment. Strong Northerly winds will usher in a fresh, continental air mass & it promises to be the coolest air so far this season. Models once again vary from run to run on just how cool (or cold depending on what is cold to you) it will be. The timing issues will become very important because it is McNeese homecoming Saturday, and of course, we don't want rain for the game. There is also some model output that suggest a more shallow air mass which would translate to some form of overrunning moisture in the post-frontal environment. If that were to transpire, we would likely not get rid of the cloud cover & also have to keep rain chances in the forecast for the balance of the day on Saturday & maybe even for Sunday. However, given the current pattern this fall, my forecast will not reflect any such idea of that scenario right now. High pressure will build in & conditions will improve during the course of the day Saturday. It will remain rather windy though, and CAA will offset daytime heating as the sun returns later int he day. Morning lows will likely still be in the 60s on Saturday morning depending on the timing of the front, but if it comes in sooner, then 50s are likely for much of the area. With CAA in place, highs will still struggle to reach the mid 70s. It should be on the chilly side for the remainder of the weekend, just in time for the homecoming game. Lows on Saturday night should be well down in the 40s...let's call it mid 40s along I-10 as skies clear and winds decrease. Sunday looks beautiful with lots of sunshine as a mix of Canadian & Pacific air will be in place via a building ridge of high pressure. Highs may barely reach 70 Sunday, but may just well only reach the 60s for most of the area depending on just how much cold air moves in. Some of the coldest locations may dip into the upper 30s for morning lows for the first time this season in about week. The coolest air mass of the season will hang around in the waning days of October with modification as we head towards Halloween.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH   64/85  66/85  66/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
CAM  70/82  70/82  71/83  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT    63/84  64/86  65/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA   64/84  66/85  67/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT    66/86  67/87  68/86  0 0 0 0 0 0
JAS     59/83  62/85  65/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX   58/82  61/84  63/85  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE    59/82  62/85  64/85  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear. Low 64. Light South wind.

Monday...Mostly Sunny. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Tuesday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Wednesday...Partly Cloudy. High 86. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 66. Light SE wind.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy. High 85. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 67. SE wind 5 mph.

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Breezy w/ a 20% chance of a shower. High 84. SSE wind 15-20 mph & gusty.


Monday 10/22/12 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny


Temp: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8


3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny


Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny


Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 7


9p.m.

Weather: Clear

Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Monday
10-22-12

Low:  64
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Tuesday
10-23-12

Low:  66
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Wednesday
10-24-12

Low:  66
High: 86
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Thursday
10-25-12

Low:  66
High: 85
Rain:  0%
Wind: SE 10-15


Friday
10-26-12

Low:  67
High: 84
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
 

Saturday
10-27-12

Low: 62
High:73
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25



Sunday
10-28-12

Low:  45
High: 70
Rain:  0%
Wind: NNW 10-15



...Tropical Update...

Of course, it is still officially hurricane season, but I would say that we have certainly turned the corner here, and have made it past the time when anything would threaten us. However, just for the sake of forecasting, let's take a look and see what's going on.

There are currently two areas of interest. One lies in the Central Caribbean to the South Hispaniola and Jamaica. This area is festering in the warm waters of the Central Caribbean, and has been nearly stationary or moved only slowly Westward in the past couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical development within the next day or two. This system will move little through Monday with only a slow Westward nudge expected through mid-week. The National Hurricane Center gives this area a 70% chance of development through Tuesday. Heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods will be possible across Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.

Also, interaction between a tropical wave and an upper level low is generating an area of showers & thunderstorms across the Central Atlantic about 750 miles ENE of the Lesser Antilles. This system is an a favorable area for further development at this time, but conditions will likely become less favorable for development by the middle of the week. This system is given a 40% chance of development through Tuesday. It will move off to the NNW at around 10 mph.

The next two names on the list for the 2012 season are Sandy and Tony. If either one of these systems develop, they will have no impact on SW Louisiana.

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated through Tuesday.


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight... Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Monday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Tuesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.

Wednesday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Thursday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday Night: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday: Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:        5:07a.m.    3:53p.m.               
High:       8:00a.m.                 


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    168.00'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Sunday, October 21, 2012



Low:                61
Normal Low:   58
Record Low:   32-1917
High:               86
Normal High:  80
Record High:   92-1927

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:               0.42"
Normal Month to Date:  3.17"
Year to Date:                 64.58"
Normal Year to Date:    46.65"
Record:                           1.21"- 2006

Significant Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2011)

Low:     46
High:    80
Rain:     0.00"

5 Years Ago (2007)

Low:    60
High:   85
Rain:    0.16"


10 Years Ago (2002)

Low:     63
High:    68
Rain:    0.70"


Sunrise Monday:   7:20a.m.
Sunset  Monday:   6:34p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:50a.m.-7:04p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Monday October 22

Full Moon-    Monday October 29

Last Quarter- Wednesday November 7

New Moon- Tuesday November 13


Have a great Monday & God Bless!
-DM-

Isaac Eyes SE Louisiana...

Monday, August 27, 2012

***Tropical Weather Mode.***

We remain in tropical weather mode until Isaac is out of our hair.


It is not necessary for me to wax eloquently as I did last night due to time constraints, and the fact that is a more certain forecast. However, it is still prudent at this juncture to post some storm thoughts & tidbits. See the video for more details.






There is good news all around tonight. Isaac has not become a hurricane yet. We have a more definitive forecast for Isaac, and lastly only very minimal effects are expected across SW Louisiana. I would almost dub Isaac as "Irritating Isaac." It is astonishing that Isaac hasn't become a hurricane yet based on some of the Recon data & especially given the low pressure reading of 979 mb. (equal to a high end category 1 or low end category 2). However, when you look at Isaac on satellite representation it isn't as big of a surprise that he hasn't climbed to the next step on the tropical ladder yet. It is still a very disorganized, ragged, & lopsided storm. This is illustrated by the strongest convection & strongest winds currently being found on the S & W side of the center of circulation. This is the complete opposite of what you normally expect. Isaac has had to fight off many mitigating factors since its inception last week. Dry air intrusion seems to be the main issue at this point, and it is clearly evident that it is being fed into the center of circulation as it has been choked off every time it tries to get going.

Certainly, we are not complaining about the fact that Isaac is a weaker storm by any means. However, Isaac will still be a force to be reckoned with for our neighbors in SE Louisiana. Isaac is forecast to make landfall late Tuesday night or early Wednesday as a category 1 storm with winds around 90 mph. This is down from the previous forecast which said 100 mph (category 2). I am starting to wonder if Isaac reaching hurricane status at all. Surely, you would think that the winds will ultimately catch up to the pressure, but if the dry air entrainment continues then it just might not. The other thing to note this evening is the reduction in forward speed. That was predicted to occur. Isaac is moving into an area that is between two surface highs, and so steering currents may collapse for a couple of days before a trough digs in & lifts out the remnants of Isaac. The storm's forward speed is around 10 mph to the NW at this time. This is compared to around 15 mph, 24 hours ago. The storm is generally moving in the aforementioned NW direction, but it has wavered between WNW and NW for the better part of the past 24 hours. This forward motion should continue until landfall before it begins to make that right hand turn and lift out as it becomes extratropical over the Mid Mississippi Valley in the latter half of the work week.

The intensity at landfall is still a big question mark. I will forecast Isaac to become a hurricane, but the current 90 mph shown by the NHC might even be a stretch at this point. However, Isaac could just as quickly ramp up to a category 2 if it becomes more right side up & symmetrical. The models were onto something when they all showed nothing stronger than a low end category 3 with most of them showing category 2 at the strongest. SE Louisiana remains the target for a direct hit with landfall likely to occur in the vicinity of the Mouth of the Mississippi River late Tuesday night or early Wednesday. I believe landfall will be in generally the same area, I see no reason to deviate from the forecast the NHC has laid out, however, I still couldn't rule out a landfall as far West as Morgan City, but between the Mouth of the Mississippi River & Grand Isle seems more logical at this point. This means SW Louisiana will only experience fringe effects on the "good side" of the storm. What does this mean for our neighbors in SE Louisiana from New Orleans and the Northshore region? Let me briefly discuss their weather before I focus on ours for just a moment or two. Isaac is a large storm, and tropical storm force winds will be felt over a large area, however, it he reaches hurricane status, the hurricane force winds will likely be confined to very small area right around the center of circulation. Based on the current track, hurricane conditions are expected for a good portion of the Southshore area of Lake Pontchartrain & the Mississippi Delta itself. The official calls for 75 mph winds with the eye or center of circulation passing near New Orleans Wednesday morning. Isaac will weaken to a tropical storm, provided he does reach hurricane status. He will weaken regardless of what intensity he is beginning shortly after landfall. The storm will then continue a slow NW heading towards Baton Rouge and they should see 60-70 mph winds with higher gusts. Winds will gradually lessen as the circulation moves into Western Mississippi. Aside from the wind, heavy, flooding rains will be the issue with as much as 8-15" of rain expected across all of SE Louisiana East of the center of circulation. Isolated areas could see 20" of rain or more. Spin off tornadoes will also be a good bet along & to the right of this center. A storm surge over 10' will be possible along the SE Louisiana coastline through Coastal Mississippi. An area totally devastated by Katrina, and is still re-building in many spots. It is ironic that Conditions will greatly improve by Thursday.

For SW Louisiana, winds will only gradually increase on Tuesday as the storm approaches the coastline. We'll have an offshore wind, so we will have no issue with storm surge it would appear. Winds will be from the N to NE at start at around 10 mph gradually increasing to 20-25 mph during the afternoon. The outermost rain bands will start to move across South Louisiana Tuesday afternoon as well, so look for rain chances to start to increase as well. Overnight winds increase to 30-35 mph with occasional gusts into tropical storm range (40-45 mph) as more squalls move across the region in the NW quadrant of the storm. It appears that our strongest winds will occur during the day Wednesday as Isaac makes his closest approach to the Lake Area. Sustained winds should be in the 35 mph range with gusts possibly up to 50 mph in the strongest squalls, but sustained tropical storm force are not expected in the Lake Area. Lafayette has a better chance of experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds due to their closer proximity to the center of circulation. Rainfall totals on our side of the state will be considerably less. Instead of the 8-15" East of the Mississippi, I'm talking about 1-4" depending on where you are across the area. The tornado threat should be non-existent for us barring any unforeseen jogs to the West of the current forecast track. Winds will subside Wednesday night into Thursday as Isaac spins down to our NE. Rain chances will continue high into Thursday before normalcy returns to South Louisiana for Friday & the all important Labor Day weekend. All watches/warnings issued on Monday morning remain in place until further notice. The Lake Charles area is under a Tropical Storm Watch & the Lafayette area is under a Tropical Storm Warning & Hurricane Watch. The Hurricane Watch extends from Morgan City, LA to the Alabama/Florida border.

Tonight, I will just post the latest advisory & a satellite picture. Models are nearly useless now since we are inside of 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Isaac

Monday, August 27, 2012

...Isaac Trying to Become a Hurricane off the SE coast of Louisiana...

Latitude: 27.1 N
Longitude: 87.0 W

This position is about 440 miles ESE of Lake Charles & 190 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Winds: 70 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected on Tuesday before Isaac interacts with land by late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Isaac is forecast to become a category 1 hurricane sometime Tuesday.

Moving; NW @ 10 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday, though a reduction in forward speed is expected to occur until after landfall.

Pressure: 28.91" or 979 mb.




Finally, to wrap it up...here is my forecast in text form only through Labor Day.


*Tropical Storm Watch in effect.*

Tonight...Increasing High Clouds. Low 73. NE wind 10 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly Cloudy & Breezy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 91. NE wind 20-25 mph & gusty.

Tuesday Night...Tropical Storm Conditions. Mostly Cloudy & Windy with occasional squalls. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Low 76. NE wind 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 60%.

Wednesday...Tropical Storm Conditions. Cloudy w/ tropical squalls off and on through the day. Rain heavy at times. High 87. North wind 30-40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Wednesday Night...Cloudy & Windy with off and on squalls through the night. Rain heavy at times. Low 75. NW wind 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph, gradually decreasing through the night. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 60% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SW wind 15-20 mph & gusty.

Thursday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 76. South wind 10 mph.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 20-30% chance of afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 92. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 75. Light SE wind. Just a bit humid for High School Football.

Saturday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Hot for the first weekend of college football. High 94. SE wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 76. Light SE wind.

Sunday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.

Sunday Night...Mostly Clear. Low 77. Light SE wind.

Labor Day...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. No worries for your Labor Day plans! High 93. SSE wind 10 mph.

That's all for now, keep your eyes on Isaac! My next update here will be after 10p.m. Tuesday.
Have a great night & God bless!