Thursday, October 28, 2010

Fantastic Fall Friday Ahead...Spooktacular Halloween Weekend...

Friday, October 29, 2010

Click below for today's edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.



SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The much anticipated, nice cold front pushed through right on schedule Thursday morning. It scoured out a very rich tropical air mass that was in place out ahead of it, and replaced it with a nice, refreshing fall air mass. Very low humidity and strong winds were the most noticeable differences along with the crystal clear blue skies. Daytime heating tried to offset CAA, and afternoon highs barely topped the 80 degree threshold. Humidity values were down in the 10-15% range, readings almost unprecedented for South Louisiana. NNW winds on the order of 15-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph were quite common. This led to prime red flag conditions across the area, with the expectation that conditions would be prime for wildfires given the ongoing drought. Very little in the way of rainfall fell this week ahead of the boundary, and we didn't put much of a dent at all in the drought. The burn ban will continue for at least another month. High pressure in the wake of the strong cold front will continue building into the region in the early morning hours, and the stiff NW winds will gradually decrease. The super dry air mass, and beautiful clear skies will result in a rapid reduction in temperatures overnight. This sets the stage for the coldest air so far this season as we start the day on Friday. Expect readings to range from the mid 30s in the coldest locations across the forecast area, to the lower 40s here along I-10, and the upper 40s at the coast. The winds will stay up just a bit overnight, to keep temperatures from really reaching their full potential. It will still be chilly enough, and this certainly qualifies as gumbo weather.

A fantastic Friday is on tap as a strong area of high pressure in the wake of the cold front will continue to propagate closer to SW Louisiana. The comfortable humidity values will be a staple once again, and after the chilly start temperatures will steadily warm up and reach the lower 70s. This is a bit below normal for this time of year. The super dry air mass will produce cloud-free conditions, and it will be an absolutely outstanding October day as we close out another work week. The coolest night so far this season is on tap Friday night as the high pressure essentially moves right over head, resulting in decoupling of the wind. This will set the stage for prime radiational cooling conditions across the forecast area with a starry night on tap. A light jacket or sweater might be required for the evening if you are planning on heading out to any of the many High School Football games. It will be absolutely perfect football weather with the clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will drop off quickly after sunset, and I would expect in the upper 60s at kickoff, and then into the mid 50s by game's end. This will ultimately lead to minimums reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s on average across the area with the coolest locations winding up in the mid 30s. The coast will be the warmest area as usual, and you can expect mid 40s down there.

Outstanding October weather will close out the month for Halloween weekend. Saturday will be another fabulous fall day with temperatures reaching the mid 70s for afternoon highs with high pressure locked in place over Louisiana during the day. A light offshore flow will persist, and the humidity values will remain super low once again with nothing but sunshine in store. This is great news as McNeese Homecoming 2010 reaches its climax. It will be very comfortable for tailgating Saturday afternoon, and it will have a nice little nip in the air for the game on Saturday night. Kickoff is at 7 as the Cowboys take on SLC foe the Nicholls State Colonels. Air mass modification will ensue Saturday, and temperatures will not be quite as cool Saturday night. Temperatures will fall off from the upper 60s at kickoff to the upper 50s by game's end with clear skies en vogue. Have fun, enjoy the game, don't forget the blue and gold, & Geaux Cowboys! Sunday is Halloween, and this year the weather will be a treat. It will be a beautiful morning on the way to and from church. The controlling high pressure will allow the month of October to finish on a beautiful note. A very subtle onshore flow will commence during the day Sunday as the large anti-cyclone will begin to shift Eastward, and be anchored to the East of the Mississippi. Humidity levels will be a bit higher, but not all that noticeable just yet since the deeper moisture will be well far to the South in the Gulf. The air mass modification will continue. Expect Sunday morning's lows to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area, and with another day of bright sunshine and no clouds, highs will top out in the upper 70s, right at normal for this time of year. Clear skies and comfortable temperatures are expected with just a bit more noticeable humidity for Sunday evening and Sunday night for all the Halloween festivities. Expect temperatures to generally be in the 60s throughout the evening. It will be a spookily busy evening on Sunday as we also have a huge Saints game to watch. The Saints take on the Steelers in the Sunday Night game of the week on NBC. Kickoff is at 7:20p.m. or so from the Superdome, so weather is not an issue. It will be a beautiful day for driving to New Orleans, and quiet weather is expected for the return trip home as well. Geaux Saints and Happy Halloween!

Moisture return amplifies on Monday as we start a new work week and the month of November. An intensifying onshore flow will develop over the area as another storm system gets revved up downstream. An amplifying trough, and attendant cold front will be in transit at this time. Out ahead of it we will see a period of warmer temperatures, and much more humid air. Skies will be Partly Cloudy and temperatures will be in the mid 50s to around 60 for lows, while afternoon highs creep back above the 80 degree threshold. The cold front will quickly approach the area late in the day Monday, and ample low level moisture will be in place at that time. The main thrust of the dynamics will once again bypass the area to the North, and leave us with just a slight chance of a few showers or a thunderstorm generated by the typical lift or forcing associated with the cold front itself. It still appears as though we will not be in a favorable pattern to bust this drought anytime soon. No widespread rain is expected, and certainly no severe weather is expected. Timing discrepancies still exist with respect to the boundary itself. The best opportunity for any rain with the front will come in the overnight hours on Monday into the day on Tuesday as the front crosses the area. It will push into the coastal waters on Tuesday. The brief spell of above normal temperatures will quickly transition back to below normal as this front appears to be the strongest so far this fall. Clouds will stay with us into the day on Tuesday, and a spotty shower is possible until the deeper moisture is scoured out. Tuesday morning lows will be very similar to that of Monday given the timing of the front, but afternoon highs will be somewhat cooler as CAA takes over. Expect the maxes to drop back into the middle 70s, closer to the normal for early November.

The end of the forecast period on Wednesday and Thursday features some uncertainties. It seems certain that we will experience the coolest weather so far this season, but will it clear out or not is the big question. Models depict a very active Jet Stream, and with the largely amplified trough digging across the U.S., some sort of upper level low or short wave may emanate out from the trough. This feature may traverse the state from West to East in the mid-week time frame. This would keep cloud cover over the area, and at least some chance of rain. It doesn't appear to be a set up that will favor a significant, widespread rain event at this point. However, it could turn out to be a situation where there will be a higher chance of rain behind the front, that there will be ahead of it. It remains to be seen. I will pay close attention to how things evolve over the weekend, and will have a much better idea of what will transpire early next week. The models depict a slow progression of said upper level feature, and this would keep the unsettled pattern in place through the end of the forecast period. I will highlight just a slight chance of rain for each day Tuesday-Thursday, since this is a pattern that is not set in stone. Temperatures will trend below normal for Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of the Election Day cold front. Expect lows to drop back into the 40s, and highs will only be in the mid to upper 60s with the added cloud cover and continued CAA over the area. The overall cooler and unsettled pattern may carry over into the following weekend as per long range models.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  43/73  41/75  48/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   44/72  42/75  47/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   45/73  43/75  49/78  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  37/70  36/71  44/79  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  38/70  37/71  44/79  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  45/73  42/75  48/77  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear and Much Cooler. Low 43. NW wind 10-15 mph.

Friday...Sunny. High 73. North wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 41. Calm wind.

Saturday...Sunny. High 75. NE wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear and Not as Cool. Low 48. East wind 5 mph.

Sunday...Sunny. High 78. SE wind 5-10 mph.


Friday 10/29/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear & Cool











Temp: 43
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 12

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny









Temp: 52
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 13

Noon
Weather: Sunny









Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 15

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny









Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 8

9p.m.

Weather: Clear, Cooling Off Quick











Temp: 58
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 6


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
10-29-10









Low: 43
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


Saturday
10-30-10









Low: 42
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween









Low: 48
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Monday
11-1-10
All Saint's Day











Low: 58
High: 81
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Tuesday
11-2-10
Election Day











Low: 55
High: 74
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Wednesday
11-3-10











Low: 48
High: 68
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Thursday
11-4-10











Low: 44
High: 65
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 10-15



...Tropical Update...

Last time I talked of 3 suspect areas that we are currently watching. This remains unchanged tonight. There is now a newly classified system in the Western Atlantic, Tropical Storm Shary. There is still the potential for another named storm to form sometime between now and the weekend.

Shary has formed in the Western Atlantic to add another name to an already very active tropical season here in 2010. This tropical system has formed from a persistent surface low pressure an area of showers and thunderstorms to the SE of Bermuda. It continued to strengthen throughout the day on Thursday, and has intensified enough to garner tropical storm status as of 10p.m. Shary is the 18th named storm of the 2010 season. This is now the most named storms in one season since the unprecedented season of 2005. Shary is a small tropical system in size and stature, and its lifespan should be rather short-lived as well. The forecast for Shary is fairly straightforward as well. Shary is moving an uncertain NW tonight, as the center tries to reform. Additional center fixes are possible on Friday as the system organizes. Shary will begin to turn N and NE over the next 24 hours as it feels the influence of a large mid-latitude advancing Westward from the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. As Shary begins to feel the influence of the trough into the weekend, wind shear will increase from the South and SW, and this will create a much more hostile environment in the Western Atlantic. This means that Shary will likely begin to weaken over the weekend after some subtle intensification occurs in the short term. Shary should remain a tropical storm, and could ultimately have some impacts on Bermuda over the weekend. 

Tropical Storm Shary Advisory

10p.m. CDT Thursday, October 28, 2010

...Shary, the 18th Named Storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forms in the Western Atlantic...

Latitude: 27.3 N

Longitude: 63.7 W

This is about 350 miles S of Bermuda.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph w/ higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through today. Tropical storm force winds extend outward to 110 miles from the center.

Movement: NW or 310 degrees @ 23 mph. A turn toward the North along with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn to the NE will occur tonight. On this track, the center of Shary will pass very near or over Bermuda late today.

Minimum Central Pressure: 29.65" or 1004 mb.

Watches/Warnings...A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds are expected to impact Bermuda beginning this afternoon.




































The next complete update on Shary will be at 4a.m. CDT Friday.

Elsewhere, could we be on the verge of having Tomas? A vigorous tropical wave continues to slowly get better organized over the Southern Atlantic off the Northern coast of South America and to the SE of Leeward Islands. A large are of showers and thunderstorms persists in this area. The environmental conditions over this area are favorable for continued development of this system, and it could officially become classified as a tropical system within the next couple of days as it continues to move W to WNW between 15-20 mph. This tropical wave will produce gusty winds and heavy rain over the Windward Islands, portions of Venezuela, and Northern portions of Guyana over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center currently gives this area about a 50% chance to develop within the next 48 hours.


Finally, the third suspect area is also over the open waters of the Atlantic. Another area of low pressure located about 1,200 miles NW of the Northernmost Cape Verde Islands is trying to get better organized. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in the last 24 hours, but environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for significant development during the next 24 hours. There is about a 30% chance of this system developing into a tropical system over the next 48 hours as it moves slowly to the West.

































Elsewhere in the tropics, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Saturday.


...Marine Forecast...


*Small Craft Advisory in effect through Friday.*


Tonight...North winds 20 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.

Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Saturday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to 1 foot in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.


......Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:                       1:56p.m.
High:                     11:08p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.37'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Thursday, October 28, 2010


Low:              70*
Normal Low:  55
Record Low:  35-1898
High:               82
Normal High:  77
Record High:  92-1927

*- 70 was the morning low, but the official low will be lower than that as the temperature was still dropping as I was posting this Thursday night.

Rainfall

Today:                            Trace
Month to Date:                2.24"
Normal Month to Date:    3.55"
Year to Date:                 28.25"
Normal Year to Date:    47.59"
Record:                           3.24"- 1985


Sensible Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     52
High:     77
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      46
High:      71
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:    62
High:    84
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Friday:   7:25a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   6:28p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:55a.m.-6:58p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Saturday October 30

New Moon- Saturday November 6

First Quarter- Saturday November 13

Full Moon- Sunday November 21


Have a great Friday, Halloween Weekend & God Bless!
-DM-

The Return of Fall...Coolest Air of the Season Into the Weekend...

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Click below for today's video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text form of the blog.




SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Say so long to this ghost of summer! A very nice cold front is sweeping through the forecast area early this morning. The bad news is that it is doing so without much in the way of rainfall activity. We have experienced some scattered activity over the last couple of days, but all of the dynamics necessary to produce a significant rain event have bypassed our area well to the North. We are on the Southern flank of the massive low pressure system that has been wreaking havoc across much of the nation this week. A few showers and/or thunderstorms are possible as the front slides through during the early morning hours, but it will clear our rapidly behind the boundary as high pressure takes control of our weather once again. The very warm and humid air mass of the past several days will be scoured out and pushed into the coastal waters, and it will be replaced with a refreshing offshore flow over land. Wednesday was yet another day of above normal temperatures with morning lows in the low to mid 70s, and highs reaching the mid to upper 80s yet again. Skies were generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy, and a few lucky locations picked up at least a brief shower or storm. The cold front is approaching the forecast area as of this writing, and will quickly move into and through the forecast area between midnight and 6a.m. It will remain warm and humid until then with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s to the South of the boundary. Temperatures will begin to drop significantly behind the front as CAA takes over, and as we start the day on Thursday a rather large temperature scheme is expected. Temperatures will be as cool as the mid 50s in the coolest locations on the Northern fringe of the forecast area, and lower 70s near the coast where the front will push through last. Skies will transition from Mostly Cloudy to Mostly Clear by sunrise.

High pressure builds in from the lee side of the Rockies beginning Thursday, and the pressure gradient between the low ahead of the front, and the building high will result in a nice offshore breeze on the order of 15to 25 mph with some higher gusts  through the afternoon. These gusty Northerly winds combined with the drying atmosphere and ongoing drought conditions will produce ripe conditions for wildfires. Therefore, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for the entire forecast area for Thursday. Sky conditions will either start or become Sunny as the day goes on depending on where you are. Daytime heating will try to offset the ongoing CAA. It will be much cooler for afternoon maximums with highs teasing the 80 degree mark, give or take a degree or so. It will be a beautiful day with much lower humidity, and a noticeable change to the way it feels inside. It will feel more invigorating that's for sure! The weather looks superb Thursday evening for the events associated with McNeese homecoming. This includes the parade, pep rally, and fireworks. Clear skies are expected for everything, and temperatures will fall from the 70s Thursday evening into the 50s by the time the fireworks are over. It will be a beautiful late October night, and you might want a light jacket or sweater if you are heading out to the festivities. There are also a few High School Football games, and it looks great for those as well. The cool evening will give way to a chilly start to Friday morning. True gumbo weather is in order as low temperatures will average the low to mid 40s across this part of the world, with some upper 30s in the coldest locations. Winds will begin to subside as the high pressure builds closer to the region.

The weather gets even better for the Friday-Sunday time frame. Mother Nature's timing of this cold front couldn't have been better with respect to the weekend. Friday will be an outstanding October day with nothing but sunshine, and low humidity. After the cool start in the 40s, temperatures will rebound nicely to the low to mid 70s across the area. This is a few notches the norm for late October. An offshore flow will be maintained thanks to high pressure over the Red River Valley, but since the high will be in closer proximity winds will be much less than that of Thursday, thus red flag criteria should not be met. You might want a jacket or sweater on Friday night if you are heading out to a High School Football or whatever the case may be. This will qualify as true football weather with crystal clear skies, and a crisp feel to the air. It should give everything a little extra pep in the step. Temperatures will fall off quickly once the sun sets. Expect kickoff temperatures to be in the lower 60s with lower 50s by the end of the ball games. There are some huge, key match ups on the slate this Friday including Barbe @ LaGrange and St. Louis vs. Sam Houston.

High pressure continues to dominate for Halloweekend. CAA ceases Friday night into Saturday as winds go calm, and this will set the stage for the coolest night of the season so far. Lows will range from the mid 30s in the coldest locations such as Oakdale and DeRidder, to the upper 40s at the coast. Lower 40s look like a good call here along I-10 for Saturday morning. A slow air mass modification begins on Saturday, but it will be absolutely beautiful for McNeese homecoming. Nothing but sunshine is expected both Saturday and Sunday, and highs on Saturday should reach the mid 70s on average. High pressure overhead will result in very light winds. The humidity will remain quite low as well, so it will be great for all the homecoming festivities. The game against Nicholls State is Saturday night at 7, and perhaps a light jacket or sweater will be required then as well with another cool October night slated. It will easily drop into the 40s again by Sunday morning, but for the game itself it should be in the 60s at kickoff and 50s by game's end. LSU is idle this weekend, so no forecast is necessary for them. Then there's Halloween on Sunday...it will be a spooktacular day to end the month of October 2010. It will be a nice, cool morning for church, and pleasant in the afternoon for all the Halloween activities. Air mass modification will continue, but it will remain comfortable for the entire weekend. It will be great for Halloween evening, and all the little ghosts and goblins out there. Sunday's highs should reach near normal in the upper 70s, and for the evening hours it will generally be in the 60s. A light onshore flow will develop during the day Sunday as strong controlling high pressure system slides East of the forecast area. It will be enough to notice a difference initially, especially since the deep moisture will be flushed well out into the Gulf with the front in the short term.

Moisture levels increase in the lower levels as we start a new work week, and a new month on Monday. This will come of another sharp fall trough that we will be awaiting. The onshore flow strengthens as surface low pressure develops over the Great Plains, and the high continues its Eastward progression. The mid and upper levels will remain largely capped, so no mention of rain is given in the forecast. The next cold front will still be downstream, and without the presence of a trigger mechanism it will be hard to generate any rain despite the significant moisture influx in the lower levels. Temperatures will moderate in earnest as well. Expect lows to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, while afternoon highs reach back into the lower 80s under Partly Cloudy skies. The next cold front, a rather strong one, will move across the forecast area and into the coastal waters Monday night into early Tuesday. A slight chance of showers is reflected at this time mainly due to the forcing generated by the front itself. The best dynamics will once again bypass our forecast area, and the mid and upper levels will remain capped. The onshore flow will continue to pump moisture across the area, and keep things on the muggy side for Monday. The front pushes offshore Tuesday, and a renewed offshore flow will take place. The air mass will dry out once again, and this will set the stage for more fantastic fall weather. There are still timing discrepancies at this juncture, but the general consensus is that the front will cross in the early morning hours of Tuesday with just the aforementioned slight chance of rain. As the front moves through, any small chance of rain becomes none once again, and the Mostly Cloudy skies ahead of the front will transition back to Sunny skies during the day Tuesday. It should turn out to be nice weather for Election Day. Temperatures will do a reversal as well with lows cooling back to the mid to upper 50s while highs drop into the 70s once again. The coolest air will lag behind by about 24 hours or so, but it will arrive for the Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame. The air behind this next front stands to be the coolest so far this fall with lows well down into the 40s once again, and highs only in the mid to upper 60s across much of the area by the end of the forecast period. High pressure builds in and keeps the area high and dry once again. The drought will certainly continue into November.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  61/79  44/72  42/75  20 10 0 0 0 0
LFT   64/79  44/72  42/75  20 10 0 0 0 0
BPT   59/80  45/73  43/76  20 10 0 0 0 0
AEX  56/76  40/70  37/72  20 10 0 0 0 0
POE  56/77  40/70  37/73  20 10 0 0 0 0
ARA  66/80  45/73  44/75  20 10 0 0 0 0


*Red Flag Warning in effect Thursday.*

Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 61. SSW wind 10-15 mph, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty after midnight.

Thursday...Becoming Sunny. Windy & Cooler. High 79. NNW wind 15-25 mph and gusty.

Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 44. North wind 10 mph.

Friday...Sunny. High 73. North 5-10 mph.

Friday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 42. Calm wind.

Saturday...Sunny. High 75. NE wind 5-10 mph.


Thursday 10/28/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy, Windy, & Cooler













Temp: 61
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 16

9a.m.


Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 19

Noon

Weather: Sunny









Temp: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 22

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny

Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 20

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny









Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15

9p.m.

Weather: Clear, Cool











Temp: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 13


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Thursday
10-28-10











Low: 61
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-25


Friday
10-29-10









Low: 44
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Saturday
10-30-10
Low: 42
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10

Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween









Low: 50
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10


Monday
11-1-10
All Saint's Day











Low: 61
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Tuesday
11-2-10
Election Day











Low: 56
High: 75
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20


Wednesday
11-3-10
Low: 45
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


...Tropical Update...

There are no immediate threats in the tropics. Certainly nothing that will threaten the Gulf of Mexico anytime soon, and likely not at all. However, we do have three potential areas of development over the open waters of the Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a nearly stationary area of low pressure about 1,200 miles NW of the Cape Verde Islands is slowly getting better organized. Observations in this area indicate that winds are into gale force range. Upper level winds are only marginally favorable for development at this point, but it will only take a slight increase in organization for this system to be classified as a tropical storm. There is a 50% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.

The second area of interest is a surface low that is forming within a deep layer trough about 550 miles NNE of the Leeward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has been gradually increasing on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are in the process of becoming more conducive for tropical development to occur, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form sometime this week. It has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a classified system over the next couple of days is it continues a Westward motion around 15 mph.

Finally, there is a vigorous tropical wave located nearly 1,050 miles ESE of the Windward Islands. The environmental conditions are favorable for some slow development of this system over the next couple of days. There is a slight chance of development with this system over the next couple of days as it continues to move W or WNW at about 15 mph.

The next 3 names on the 2010 list are Shary, Tomas, and Virginie.




















...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...North winds 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.

Thursday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Saturday...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot.


...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:                       12:51p.m.
High:             2:58a.m.       10:22p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.23'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Wednesday, October 27, 2010


Low:              77
Normal Low:  55
Record Low:  34-1898
High:               87
Normal High:  77
Record High:  92-1927

Rainfall

Today:                             Trace
Month to Date:                2.24"
Normal Month to Date:    3.43"
Year to Date:                 28.25"
Normal Year to Date:    47.47"
Record:                           7.00"- 1900


Sensible Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     50
High:     76
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      44
High:      74
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:    56
High:    84
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Thursday:   7:24a.m.
Sunset  Thursday:   6:29p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:54a.m.-7:29p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Saturday October 30

New Moon- Saturday November 6

First Quarter- Saturday November 13

Full Moon- Sunday November 21


Have a great Thursday & God Bless!
-DM-

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Coolest Air of the Season in Sight...

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Click below for today's edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block of the blog.





SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We need some rain, but given the potency of the storm system that is traversing the country, perhaps it is a blessing that we don't have any dynamics present at this time. This 'bomb'' of a storm is centered over the Great Lakes, and is producing conditions similar to that of a hurricane. There has been all kinds of severe weather from the Great Lakes States into the Deep South today, but again this has bypassed our area. It has been on the breezy side with a stiff onshore flow persisting once again on Tuesday due to the pressure differential associated with the advancing bomb over the Great Lakes. There is so much energy to be displaced, and this is a remarkable storm for October. Windy and very humid conditions are all we have to show for in association with the huge system. Some spotty showers/storms occurred as expected as the stiff onshore flow fed energy into the Great Lakes low. These streamer showers were very short-lived, and didn't do much more than wet the ground in most places. For the most part, Tuesday was another Partly to Mostly Cloudy day with the unseasonable warmth in place. Morning lows were in the mid to upper 70s. This is nearly 20 degrees above the normal for late October. Afternoon highs were generally in the mid to upper 80s across the area. This rich tropical air mass results in a smaller diurnal range across the area. The cold front that will sweep the muggies out into the Gulf of Mexico is en route tonight. The front has temporarily come to a halt off to our North as it bumps into a flow that is essentially parallel to the flow. This will keep most of the forecast area in the warm, moist air mass into Wednesday. The pattern of persistence will continue as a result. A slight chance of a shower or storm is reflected in the official forecast for the overnight hours as the front hovers to our North. The pressure differential will keep the Southerly breezes going as well, but since we've lost daytime heating they will subside to an extent. The unseasonable warmth will hang around with temperatures by sunrise in the mid 70s on average.

A near repeat performance is on tap for Wednesday. The atmosphere will remain largely capped in the mid and upper levels despite the approach of the frontal boundary. The huge low to our North will steal all the dynamics, and with a 200 kt. Jet Stream flowing across that part of the world dynamics will certainly be null and void here. It is strictly air mass showers and any lift that the front can create that will have to depend on to get some much needed rainfall across the area. Our drought stricken area will not be in a favorable set up to receive a widespread rain event this time around. Rainfall amounts will generally be light, but there could be some brief heavy downpours across the area. Rain chances will remain on the low side. Temperatures will be above normal for one more day with upper 80s expected yet again. Some areas could top the 90 degree mark, especially where more sunshine occurs, and with an increased subsidence zone ahead of the front. The cold front will remain locked in place across the Northern portion of the forecast area to start the day, but it will get the extra boost it needs to advance through the remainder of the forecast area during the day as the big low shifts Eastward. The Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies persist along with the stiff Southerly flow. The cold front will finally advance through the forecast area as we head through the overnight hours into Thursday morning. This will bring about a little bit better chance for showers and storms as lifting and/or forcing increases with the progression of the front. It will remain windy, and it will gradually turn cooler as the front crosses the area. CAA and an offshore will take over. There will likely be a wide temperature spectrum across the area as we start the day on Thursday given the timing of the front. Areas to the North of I-10 should radiate down into the 50s, and areas near the coast will only hold in the lower 70s. Low to mid 60s should suffice for the I-10 corridor, and the threat for any rain will come to an end with the frontal passage between midnight and sunrise Thursday.

The rest of the work week through the weekend will feature a much more benign pattern. The only bad side of that is that it will continue to be dry, and the drought will persist. The front continues to push into the coastal waters during the day Thursday, and high pressure will build into the region from the Rockies. Full late October sunshine will try to offset the ongoing CAA. Temperatures will be several degrees cooler thanks to the air mass building in behind said front. Expect highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area. This is very close to the seasonal norm. The strong low pressure will continue its slow Eastward progression over the Great Lakes, and will continue to favor a cooler regime across our area. A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive late Thursday into Friday, and this will send low temperatures down into the 40s for most locations heading into Friday morning. Crystal clear skies will prevail Thursday night with high pressure being the dominant weather feature. Any Thursday night football games for area high schools look great. It will be on the chilly side as temperatures quickly fall from near 80 Thursday afternoon into the 60s by kickoff at 7p.m. Some 50s will show up before game's end. A light jacket or sweater may be necessary for you if you get cool easy late Thursday night/Friday morning as the temperatures dip into the 40s. Sounds like gumbo weather to me as the morning low at Lake Charles should come in somewhere in the mid 40s with clear skies. It looks good for all the McNeese Homecoming festivities Thursday evening...the parade, pep rally, and fireworks display.

The weekend is shaping up better and more spooktacular than ever now it appears. High pressure will be firmly in control by Friday, and winds will slacken and CAA will cease. Crystal clear skies are expected with tons of sunshine Friday through Sunday Halloween. It will be very pleasant Friday afternoon with low humidity and temperatures at or below seasonal norms in the mid 70s. Friday night looks great for all of the big High School Football games here in week 9 of the season. A new chapter in the Barbe-LaGrange rivalry will be written Friday night under perfect football weather. Friday night will be the coolest night so far this season, and there is a good chance you will want to have a jacket or sweater with you for the game as temperatures drop rapidly once the sun goes down. Temperatures near kickoff will be in the mid 60s, but it should easily be down in the 50s before the ball game's end. This will lead to eventual lows on Saturday morning in the lower 40s on average, but some mid to upper 30s will be quite common North of Hwy. 190. The stage will be set for a night of maximum radiational cooling on Friday night as winds decouple and go nearly calm. The greatness continues for Saturday. High pressure will be over Louisiana, and it will be a crisp, clear fall day with highs back into the mid to upper 70s with super low humidity values once again. This is absolutely perfect tailgating weather. Get out there and enjoy McNeese homecoming. Game time weather itself looks superb as well. Skies will be clear, and it will be on the cool side with temperatures in the 60s at kickoff and into the upper 50s to around 60 by game's end. Lows in the mid to upper 40s will transpire by Sunday morning as the air mass begins to moderate just slightly. Sunday is Halloween of course, and you simply couldn't put together a better forecast for Halloween. It appears as though it will be all treats and no tricks from Mother Nature this Halloween. A more significant air mass modification takes over during the day as the controlling high shifts to our East allowing a return flow to set up over the area. It will remain a pleasant day, however, since the deep, tropical moisture will have pushed way out into the Gulf. Expect Sunday highs to be closer to 80, so still quite pleasant. For all the Halloween activities Sunday evening, it looks great. It will be warmer and more humid as the South winds take effect, but it should be clear with temperatures generally in the 60s. No weather issues for the Saints game either, since they play the Steelers at home in the Dome. Dry and beautiful weather is expected for the driver over to and back home from the game, if you are lucky enough to be going.

Changes are in the offing for next week. The Southerly flow becomes more pronounced Monday as another in the continuing series of amplifying troughs develops to our NW over the Rockies. The large high will shift to the SE U.S., and a surface low will develop as the energy from the downstream trough increases. This will result in increasing WAA, and increasing surface winds across our part of the world. It will likely remain dry with the lack of a trigger mechanism in place. Temperatures will be above normal as we start the month of November. Morning lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s while afternoon highs reach the lower 80s once again. There is some model discrepancy with regards to possible rain chances. I will blend the wetter and drier solutions together for now until we get closer to this time frame, and a more definitive solution is discovered. I will leave Monday dry, but a noticeable increase in clouds and humidity is highlighted. The forecast period will end with at least some chance of rain as our next cold front works through the area. This looks to come on Election Day next Tuesday. It is far too early to determine the severity of this system, but the idea of a significant rain event and possible severe weather is on the table for the end of this period. This is not reflected at this juncture, but a chance of rain is shown to reflect the lifting of low level moisture in place ahead of the cold front. A mild temperature regime is expected with morning lows remaining in the lower 60s while afternoon highs top out near 80 give or take a degree. The front should quickly move through during the day Tuesday, and a fresh fall air mass follows just beyond this forecast period.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  75/88  61/80  44/73  20 20 30 0 0 0
LFT   75/87  62/81  44/74  20 20 30 0 0 0
BPT   74/87  60/80  45/73  20 20 30 0 0 0
AEX  64/88  55/77  40/70  20 20 20 0 0 0
POE  64/88  55/77  40/70  20 20 20 0 0 0
ARA  76/87  62/81  45/75  20 20 30 0 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 75. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Turning Cooler overnight with any threat of rain ending by sunrise. Low 61. SSW wind 15-20 mph becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty.

Thursday...Mostly Sunny, Cooler, & Breezy. High 80. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 44. North wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Sunny. High 73. North wind 5-10 mph.


Wednesday 10/27/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy











Temp: 75
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 11

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 80
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 14

Noon

Partly Cloudy, A Scattered Storm or Two












Temp: 83
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 21

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, A Few Showers & Storms Possible











Temp: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 22

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy

Temp: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy, A Few Showers & Storms Ahead of Cold Front











Temp: 77
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSW 17


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
10-27-10











Low: 75
High: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-25


Thursday
10-28-10









Low: 61
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20


Friday
10-29-10










Low: 44
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Saturday
10-30-10
Low: 42
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween










Low: 47
High: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Monday
11-1-10
All Saints Day











Low: 57
High: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Tuesday
11-2-10











Low: 61
High: 78
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20



...Tropical Update...

Richard became a remnant low or post-tropical system on Tuesday over the SW Gulf of Mexico, and is no longer a classified tropical system. There are currently no active tropical systems. No tropical storm formation is expected through Thursday.


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.

Wednesday Night...South winds around 5 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday...North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.

Thursday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.

Friday...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:           11:58a.m.     11:56p.m.
High:             2:44a.m.       9:04p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.01'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Tuesday, October 26, 2010


Low:              78
Normal Low:  55
Record Low:  39-1909
High:              87
Normal High:  77
Record High:  92-1927

Rainfall

Today:                             0.01"
Month to Date:                2.24"
Normal Month to Date:    3.31"
Year to Date:                 28.25"
Normal Year to Date:    47.35"
Record:                           5.31"- 2009


Sensible Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     59
High:     75
Rain:     5.31"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      40
High:      71
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:    59
High:    81
Rain:    0.04"


Sunrise Wednesday:   7:23a.m.
Sunset  Wednesday:   6:30p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:53a.m.-7:00p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Saturday October 30

New Moon- Saturday November 6

First Quarter- Saturday November 13

Full Moon- Sunday November 21


Have a great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

No End In Sight to the Drought...Coolest Weather of the Season Arrives Later This Week...

Monday, October 25, 2010

Click below to see the latest edition of the video blog. Be sure to scroll down for the complete text block of the blog.




SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...We are stuck in a proverbial rut! The stagnant, late summer pattern which has enveloped the region since last week remains in tact early this week. The weather was benign around here over the weekend compared to our neighbors to the North. A rather potent upper level system bypassed our area to the North over the weekend, and produced severe weather from Texas into the Ozarks and into portions of the Deep South. Some reports of tornadoes occurred with lots of hail and wind damage in that part of the world. Fortunately, we missed out on the violent weather, but unfortunately we missed out on any significant rain as well as the potency of this upper level system robbed all of the available dynamics and keep our area high and dry. The main issue for us the last couple of days has been wind. The increased pressure gradient between the high situated off the SE U.S. coast, and the advancing upper level storm, and a digging trough and attendant surface low pressure system to our West is the culprit. This kept a warm, moist onshore flow going across Louisiana Monday. Our proximity to the bypassing ULL kept us with Partly Cloudy skies and unseasonable October warmth. Morning lows were generally in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area, while Monday highs reached mid 80s on average. The Southerly breezes made it feel a bit more bearable out there, but there was actually a heat index in place. The Southerly winds on the order of 15-25 mph were dominate for much of the day. The stagnant period of weather will continue in the short term. Expect Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy skies overnight and into the morning hours of Tuesday. Temperatures will only fall off into the upper 60s to lower 70s under a fall October moon. The winds will decouple somewhat only because of the loss of daytime heating, but the onshore flow will persist. The winds will keep any fog threat at a minimum due to the atmospheric mixing the wind generates.

The advancing or bypassing, whichever you prefer, upper level system continues to move away on Tuesday, and the next storm system will continue to approach the area. A strong cold front will be diving SE, and will be advancing into the state. It will push into the Northern half of the state, perhaps as far as the extreme Northern portion of this forecast area during the day Tuesday. However, it will temporarily come to a halt as it advances out ahead of the main trough causing it to lose its momentum of forward progress. The strong long fetch onshore flow will only be enhanced by the approach of this boundary. However, all the dynamics generated by the advancing trough will take a similar trajectory to the previously mentioned upper level low, so our weather will not change much locally. The positioning of the cold front will leave it far enough removed from the area, that very little lift is expected to be generated at least for Tuesday. The mid and upper levels will remain largely capped. Now, given the deep tropical air mass in place a few streamer showers and storms could develop during the peak heating hours in the afternoon. Generally Partly Cloudy skies are expected with a very similar temperature regime to that of Monday. Highs should reach the mid 80s for most, with a few upper 80s dotting the landscape. It will be closer to 80 at the coast given the marine influence. A slight rain chance is highlighted for Tuesday, but certainly no drought buster. A slight chance of rain will be maintained for the overnight hours Tuesday as the frontal boundary remains locked up to our North, but overall the stagnant pattern will remain. Overnight minimums should only be close to 70 once again, much above the seasonal norm for late October.

The stagnant tendencies of this atmosphere will continue for the mid-week period, but a change for the better will be on the horizon. A change in the zonal flow will mean that the stalled cold front to our North will begin to translate Southward once again. It will evolve slowly, however. It will take a nudge from another piece of energy developing downstream in the amplifying trough. Until it arrives, the stagnant pattern will persist. Do not expect much change for Wednesday. The stiff onshore flow will continue, and there will be a slight possibility of some scattered convective activity. However, the main thrust of energy will again be displaced to our North closer to the surface low, so only streamer showers/storms are expected as the strong winds feed into the advancing surface low. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies are expected, and temperatures will once again be above the seasonal norm for late October. The best chance for SW Louisiana to be the beneficiary of some much needed rainfall will come in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. The digging trough, and additional short wave to our North along the trough will give the front the nice nudge it needs to advance into and through the area. The lifting mechanism that is the cold front itself will slice into the rich, tropical air mass, and should help to generate some nocturnal convection. This will likely be convection that forms along the boundary to our North and pushes into the forecast area as the front advances into Thursday morning. Any showers and thunderstorms will remain scattered at best with the best dynamics to produce a nice widespread rain bypassing the forecast area to the NE. Certainly, no severe weather is on the slate with the absence of dynamics. Rainfall amounts will vary greatly, from nothing to about a 1/2" in the lucky locales. I feel 30% is the best we will be able to muster at this time for the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame. The front will have no problem reaching well into the coastal waters, as it does so a pattern of CAA will take over Thursday morning. There is still a bit of uncertainty exactly what time the boundary will cross the forecast area, but it seems that it should come between 6Z and 12Z Thursday (midnight-6a.m.). The stagnant air mass will quickly be displace as the front moves on by. A cooler regime will begin Thursday with lows down into the mid to upper 60s by sunrise. The strong Southerly flow will be replaced by a nice, refreshing Northerly breeze.

The atmosphere will quickly dry out behind the front Thursday, and any rain that does fall will become a distant memory as the evaporation process will be increased by the drier, cooler air mass and the offshore flow. Conditions will be more fall-like Thursday in the CAA pattern. Some clouds will linger Thursday morning, but as high pressure becomes the dominant weather feature the sky condition will transition to Sunny as the day wears on. It will still be a warm afternoon, as the coolest air lags behind a bit, and daytime heating tries to offset the cold air advection. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area. The coolest air of the season will be ushered in by this cold front. It will qualify as gumbo weather as we head into Friday. Temperatures will do a complete 180, meaning we will transition from an above normal temperature scheme to a below normal temperature scheme. Under crystal clear, moonlit skies and continued CAA Thursday night/Friday morning, temperatures will be in the 40s area wide with the exception of the immediate coast by sunrise Friday. This is great news for Thursday evening as McNeese's homecoming festivities kick into high gear. It looks clear and cool for the Homecoming Parade, Pep Rally, Bonfire, and Fireworks. Grab a sweater or jacket and enjoy! High pressure moves down the base of the Rockies and into the Red River Valley Friday, and supplies us with a new round of outstanding October weather. Friday afternoon maximums will not eclipse the 80 degree mark. Expect highs to generally be in the mid 70s on average, but some lower 70s will be possible across the Northern portion of the area. Then there's Friday night...a great time to watch a football game somewhere in the area! We are lucky to have some of the greatest High School Football in the country right here in our own backyard. This will already be week 9 of the season, and it may perhaps be the best weather Mother Nature has to offer so far this season. You might want to bring a jacket or a coat especially if you get cold easy. Temperatures in the mid 70s Friday afternoon will quickly fall into the 50s once the sun goes down. Clear skies are expected throughout each ball game, and I expect a kickoff temperature around 66 or so, and then about 57 by game's end. There's always some big games in SW Louisiana, but perhaps the biggest this week is the district contest between crosstown rivals Barbe and LaGrange! These cool football temperatures will continue to radiate downward, and by Saturday morning it will be in the lower to middle 40s down to the I-10 corridor, and the usual colder locations should be in the upper end of the 30s for the second time this month. Winds will go nearly calm as the high builds into Texas.

The weekend weather is always a topic of discussion, and I always say it's never too early to look ahead to the weekend. The good news is we are one step closer with Monday out of the way. The even better news is that the weekend looks splendid. Saturday will be about as good as it ever gets around here with very low humidity. It will terrific tailgating weather for McNeese homecoming. Expect sunny skies and temperatures after a very cool October morning will reach the upper 70s or so. Winds will be very light as the high remains in complete control. The game itself is at 7p.m. as McNeese takes on Nicholls State in another conference match up. Clear and cool weather is expected. Temperatures should be in the upper end of the 60s at kickoff and near 60 by the end of another McNeese victory. You might want a little blue and gold jacket or sweater with you at the game if you get chilly easy! It won't be quite as cool Saturday night as the high pressure will be centered just to our East by this time. No, I didn't forget to mention LSU! They have their bye week this week. Expect a temperature in the lower 50s by sunrise Sunday. It is a busy weekend from homecoming to Halloween! That's we have to look forward to on Sunday. It should be a fairly nice day Sunday despite the return of an onshore flow with the high pushing into Dixie. The deep moisture will be well out into the Gulf, so it will take awhile for significant moisture to return. Skies should remain Mostly Sunny for Sunday with a few puffy clouds possible in the afternoon. Temperature moderation will continue thanks to the Southerly flow. Afternoon highs should creep back above 80 degrees, but it will still be comfortable, and won't be nearly as warm as it is right now. All Halloween activities and events get the green light this year. It should be fairly comfortable for all the ghosts and goblins this year. Though, it will be more humid by Sunday evening. Clear skies are expected with just a few creepy clouds possible. Temperatures will
generally be in the 70s for the evening . Whether you are going to a Halloween party, trick or treating, or to an event at your church it will be dry. There is also some football game of interest Sunday night. The Saints battle the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Superdome on Sunday Night Football. Of course, no weather issues with the game being in the Dome, but if you are going to the game expect a dry trip to and from New Orleans. Hopefully, the Saints will rebound from their absymal performance against Cleveland Sunday. Warm air advection increases in earnest as we head into November. Expect Monday morning lows to only be in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Most of the area along and South of I-10 should be in the 60s, back above normal for this time of year.

As we turn the calendar to November, we will be awaiting another cold front. A new trough and attendant cold front will be cranking up to our NW, and will be in transit at the end of the forecast period. Ahead of this boundary, a warm and humid air mass will be the story for the end of the forecast period on Monday...All Saints Day! The lack of a focal mechanism should preclude a significant chance of rain at least for Monday, but with the deeper moisture back in place a few advection showers are possible, and a slight 20% chance is noted for the end of the forecast period. We will start November with generally Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies, and above normal temperatures with highs reaching the lower threshold of the 80s for most. The pressure differential will come into play once again, and some breezy conditions are to be expected across the area as the next fall storm system comes into range. There is still some timing issues with the arrival of the next front at the end of the period, but right now the consensus is that it will arrive, and push through the area just beyond this forecast period on Election Day next Tuesday. This could pose the potential for a stormy mid-term Election day, but if that is what ultimately happens, please don't let it stop you from voting. The idea of a significant rain event at this point is on the table, but certainly not a given in this La Nina pattern, so we will just have to wait and see how it all evolves. Another significant cool down should follow behind next week's front. Maybe, a pattern shift will arise in November that will allow opportunity for some significant rain events to bust this drought. One can only hope!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  72/86  70/87  66/80  10 20 10 20 30 20
LFT   71/87  71/88  67/81  10 20 10 20 30 20
BPT   73/86  72/87  66/81  10 20 10 20 30 10
AEX  71/87  66/87  56/77  10 20 20 30 10  0
POE  71/87  66/87  56/78  10 20 20 30 10  0
ARA  73/86  72/87  69/83  10 20 10 20 30 20


Tonight...Partly Cloudy and Unseasonably Warm. Continued Breezy. Low 72. South wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 86. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Tuesday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Low 70. SSW wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy & Windy with a 20% chance of showers & thunderstorms. High 87. SSW wind 15-25 mph and gusty.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers & thunderstorms. Turning Cooler after midnight. Low 66. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph after midnight.

Thursday...Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of early morning showers & thunderstorms. Clearing through the day, and becoming Sunny. Cooler & Breezy. High 80. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.



Tuesday 10/26/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Breezy











Temp: 72
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 12

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy











Temp: 78
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 15

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy











Temp: 81
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 17

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy, Maybe a Scattered Storm











Temp: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 20

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Windy











Temp: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 18

9p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Watching Storms Up North











Temp: 77
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 13


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Tuesday
10-26-10











Low: 72
High: 86
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Wednesday
10-27-10











Low: 70
High: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSW 15-25


Thursday
10-28-10











Low: 66
High: 80
Rain: 20%
Wind: NNW 15-20


Friday
10-29-10









Low: 47
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Saturday
10-30-10









Low: 44
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Sunday
10-31-10
Halloween









Low: 50
High: 80
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 5-10


Monday
11-1-10
All Saints Day











Low: 60
High: 82
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20


...Tropical Update...

Richard made landfall as a hurricane in Belize Sunday night, and is now over Southern Mexico, and is a decaying/transition storm. Richard is nearing the SW Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Campeche, but there is no worries about re-generation tonight. The environment out ahead of Richard is a hostile one, and it is late in the season now. Temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico have cooled significantly. Richard's circulation has been greatly interrupted due to its interaction with land. There is not much of the storm left now. A transition to an extratropical/post-tropical low is ongoing, and this should be completed sometime Tuesday as Richard emerges over water again. There is very little in the way of convection near the low-level center at this time. This should be the last discussion of Richard as it will complete its transition to post-tropical during the next 24 hours, and the hostile environs over the SW Gulf of Mexico will not allow for any thought of re-generation.

Tropical Depression Richard Advisory

10p.m. CDT Monday, October 25, 2010

...Richard Decaying Over Southern Mexico...

Latitude: 18.4 N

Longitude: 91.6 W

This is 20 miles SE of Cuidad del Carmen, Mexico.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 30 mph w/ higher gusts. Weakening will continue, and Richard should become an extratropical entity Tuesday.

Movement: WNW or 295 degrees @ 7 mph. A turn toward the NW is expected during the overnight hours, and on this track the center of circulation will emerge into the Southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb. or 29.65"




















Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone formation is expected through Wednesday.


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*

Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 feet building to 5 feet after midnight.

Tuesday...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to around 15 knots by the afternoon. Seas 5 feet subsiding to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night...Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:           11:13a.m.     11:10p.m.
High:             2:33a.m.       7:31p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...

    164.20'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...


Monday, October 25, 2010


Low:              72
Normal Low:  56
Record Low:  36-1999
High:              85
Normal High:  78
Record High:  92-1927

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month to Date:                2.23"
Normal Month to Date:    3.19"
Year to Date:                 28.24"
Normal Year to Date:    47.23"
Record:                           7.00"- 1900


Sensible Weather Observed:

None

One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     50
High:     76
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      43
High:      71
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:    56
High:    81
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Tuesday:   7:22a.m.
Sunset  Tuesday:   6:31p.m.


Hunting Times:

6:52a.m.-7:01p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Saturday October 30

New Moon- Saturday November 6

First Quarter- Saturday November 13

Full Moon- Sunday November 21


Have a great Tuesday & God Bless!
-DM-