Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Hurricane Awareness Week 2010...The Long Summer is Here...

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

I am back. No, I didn't disappear off of the face of the Earth! I am back here now after several days of no blog postings! I apologize for the lack. I had so much I wanted to say over the course of the last 10 days or so, but my computer crashed. I have been in the process of restoring everything as best I could, so please bare with me over the next few days as I continue to work to restore everything. The audio blogs will return in the next day or so, and I hope the sound quality will be even better than before. Thank you! It's good to be back! The blog will be in short form this week, since I'll be doing hurricane preparedness! One more quick note here, next Tuesday, June 1, is the beginning of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Therefore, the tropical outlook will return. It will generally be located below the marine forecast, unless there's an active storm heading for the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, then it will take precedence over everything else and be moved right to the top. I will also utilize the blog more during hurricane season, as this will allow me to enter new information about the tropical systems as they come out.

Now, before I get to the forecast discussion, I promised you hurricane preparedness, and you will still get the full version. I will have to double up each day this week to make up for the lack of information for last week, so once again please bare with me. This week, the way of May 23-29 is officially known as Hurricane Awareness Week. For the duration of the week, I will providing you with all sorts of helpful information to help you prepare for the upcoming tropical season, which begins in just less than a week now (Tuesday, June 1). The first parts tonight cover, commonly used terms during the tropical season, the list of names for the 2010 hurricane season, and new changes to issued forecast products by the National Hurricane Center effective for the 2010 season.

It is essential to have a better understanding of not only hurricanes, but all tropical systems in general. One way to become more knowledgeable of these meteorological entities is to understand and know the meaning of certain terms we use over the course of the season.

As you know, tropical systems are divided into 3 stages for naming purposes: tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane. However, it can be taken further as all of these tropical systems begin from what is known as a tropical wave or tropical disturbance. Let's define each one.

Tropical Disturbance- An area of disorganized low pressure that develops in the Atlantic Basin, that is, the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Atlantic Ocean. It generally evolves from a persistent area of thunderstorms, and lowering pressures over the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical Depression- An organized low pressure system with organized clouds and thunderstorms. It has sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm- An organized low pressure system with organized clouds and intense rainfall. It has sustained surface winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane- The most intense of the tropical cyclones. It produced very heavy rainfall, and sustained surface winds must be at least 74 mph.

Hurricane intensity is measured using the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is broken down into 5 categories.

Category 1  74-95 mph. Minimal damage will result such as downed trees and power lines. Damage to poorly constructed mobile homes is possible. Minor roof damage possible to some well-built homes. Some signs could be damaged. Injury or death to people and animals can occur if debris falls on or hits them. Example of a category 1 storm (Dolly in 2008- South Texas).


Category 2- 96-110 mph. Extensive damage will occur. Examples of this include: Older mobile homes can be completely destroyed by the high winds and flying debris. The risk of death or injury to humans and animals increases. High rise buildings sway, and face the risk of having windows blown out.  Example of a category 2 storm (Hurricane Frances in 2004- East Central FL Coast).

Category 3 111-130 mph. Severe damage will occur. Major tree and power line damage occurs often producing prolonged power outages for over a week. Major communications can be cut off for more than a week. Almost all older mobile homes will be completely destroyed. Poorly constructed frame homes can face serious damage. Major roof damage will occur. Signs, fences, and canopies destroyed. Example of a category 3 (Hurricane Rita September 24, 2005- SW Louisiana/SE Texas). Hurricanes of category 3 intensity and above are considered major hurricanes.

Category 4 131-155 mph. Devastating damage. A very high risk of death to humans and animals due to falling and flying debris. Major structural damage to well built homes and offices. Certain demolition of mobile homes and trailers. Power failures will last for weeks due to numerous amount of falling trees and power lines. All major services will be unavailable for quite some time after the storm. Example of a category 4 storm (Hurricane Charley- August 2004- West Central Florida).

Category 5 156 mph or greater. Catastrophic damage. A very high risk to almost near certain death for humans and animals due to falling and flying debris. Major damage to well built structures. Nearly all signs, canopies, and fences will be destroyed. Nearly all trees and power lines will be snapped, uprooted, or downed. Expect utilities and services to be absent for weeks possibly months. Many areas will be uninhabitable, and human suffering will be immense. An example of a category 5 storm (Hurricane Andrew- August 1992, and Hurricane Camille- August 1969 Mississippi).

Other terms of note include:

Storm surge- A rapid rise in ocean height as a hurricane moves inland. More people are killed by the storm surge element than the wind element. The storm surge is extremely destructive to anything and everything in its path, especially if it comes in with a significant speed. You should remember that water is extremely heavy, and a cubic yard of water weighs about 1,700 pounds. The larger the storm, the higher the surge will be. The shape of the continental shelf across the coastal waters is also a contributing factor.


When a tropical system is threatening a portion of coastline, and conditions are imminent within a couple of days certain advisories are issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Watch- Alert issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 48 hours for a specific area of the coast.

Tropical Storm Warning- Alert issued when tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours for a specific area of the coast.

Hurricane Watch- Alert issued when hurricane conditions are expected for a specific portion of the coastline. It is issued within 48 hours of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force, because the stronger winds will make preparations more difficult to complete.

Hurricane Warning- Alert issued when hurricane conditions are expected for a specific portion of the coastline with 36 hours of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds. This is because preparations become more difficult to complete once the winds increase.

Tornadoes are also very common during tropical systems, mainly to the right (East) of the center of circulation.

Tornado- A small-scale, violently rotating column of air extending from the cyclonic motion.

These are the common terms used during the course of a tropical season.


The next section will cover some changes that are being made to the issued forecasts for the 2010 season. This information comes courtesy of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL.

First, Watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas will be issued 12 hours earlier than in previous years. Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings.

Secondly, The format of the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory is changing. The most significant changes are:

The Public Advisory will be organized into sections. Within these sections, keywords will be used to assist the human eye and computer software to find specific information more readily.

The summary section of the advisory will move to the top of the product, immediately following the headline. The summary section will contain more information than it did previously.

Watch and warning information will be organized differently and be presented in list or bullet form.

Thirdly, A summary section, identical to the one found in the Public Advisory, will be added to the Tropical Cyclone Update whenever storm information (e.g., position, intensity, movement, pressure, etc.) changes from the previous Advisory.

Fourth, The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.

Fifth, The National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center will begin using the generic term "post-tropical" to refer to any system that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue to carry heavy rains and strong winds. Some post-tropical cyclones will go on to become fully extratropical, that is, derive their energy from the temperature contrast between warm and cold air masses. Another type of post-tropical cyclone is the "remnant low", a weak system with limited thunderstorm activity and winds of less than tropical storm strength.

Next, The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale will become operational. The scale keeps the same wind speed ranges as the original Saffir-Simpson Scale for each of the five hurricane categories, but no longer ties specific storm surge and flooding effects to each category.

Lastly, The size of the tropical cyclone forecast cone will be adjusted. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2010 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

For more information log onto www.nhc.noaa.gov....The National Hurricane Center.


Finally, in closing the first part of Hurricane Awareness 2010, here is the list of names for the 2010 Season. I should remind you that names are only used for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. When a storm is at tropical depression status, it is given a number only. The names alternate, boy,girl, boy, girl, etc. and are recycled every 6 years. For example, the first name on this year's list, Alex, will be used once again in 2016. However, I should also note here that names are retired of the storm was influential. Examples of retired storm names include Rita, Katrina, Wilma, Ike, Ivan, Audrey, Frances, Dennis, Camille, Betsy, & Andrew.


Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona
Gaston
Hermine
Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

There are no storm names for the letter Q, U, X, Y, & Z.


Check back for part 2 tomorrow which will feature what to do before, during, and after the storm, as well as hurricane climatology and history for SW Louisiana.. Part three is on Thursday, and will include the science behind hurricanes, that is, the forecasting aspect. It will also include some predictions for the upcoming season. Even though I don't put numbers on it like some experts do, I will give my thoughts on the upcoming season. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to leave them right here, or you can e-mail me.  Now onto the forecast...


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Officially, summer begins in a little less than a month. However, summer is firmly enkindled across the forecast area on this last full week of May. This is typical as you know, our summer is very long, and there will be no relief from the heat until at least September. Tuesday was certainly a day very representative of a normal summer day across the forecast area. We still need some rain, and a lucky few did receive some...Luke Bryan is correct!!! Temperatures have been running a tad above normal, but the pattern is essentially normal at this juncture. Afternoon highs today were well into the 90s, with many locations touching the mid 90s. A less than average scattered of afternoon shower and thunderstorm was present on this Tuesday afternoon as some mid and upper level ridging remained in place. Oddly enough, some shower and thunderstorm activity prevailed well after sunset Tuesday over Acadiana, but most of us have stayed dry. Overall, it will be a quiet night with clear skies and humid conditions in place. Overnight lows will be close to the 70 degree mark.

More of the same weather is expected through the forecast period, including the all important Memorial Day weekend. Day to day variations in the chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected, as some small scale synoptic features aid in dictating what percentage of the daily dose of cumulus clouds can grow vertically into thunderstorms. Wednesday offers one of the days with at least an average chance of scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. A couple of features will come together to produce this slight increase in coverage from Tuesday. Some minor upper air disturbances moving Eastward away from an MCS over Texas, and an inverted trof over the SE U.S. will retrograde into the forecast area, and create another boundary for showers and thunderstorms to feed off of as the afternoon sea breeze works in. In all, areal coverage should be around 30%. Areas that obtain a direct hit from a thunderstorm could pick up a quick inch or so of much needed rainfall, but someone just down the road will continue to bake in the sun. There's no way of pinpointing exactly where the storms will occur, it's simply an at random proposition. I'd almost say it's like God's version of a lottery! It's just a luck of the draw more or less. With the daytime heating aspect always present, and such a moist air mass in place some of the storms could turn out to be rather robust, but certainly anything severe on a large scale is not likely. A similar temperature scheme is in the offing for Wednesday as well with 90s obtainable in nearly all areas once again. The immediate coast will escape it being 90. Heat index values will be at or near 100 real soon....find a pool!!!

Atmospheric conditions remain nearly the same for Thursday with another smattering of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on tap. Once again, average areal coverage for late May is expected. Partly Cloudy and hot weather will prevail. Lows in the 70s, and highs in the 90s...something you'll see a nauseum over the next 4 months. Weak mid and upper level ridging could become established once again as we head into the weekend, but the daytime heating and the afternoon sea breeze should easily be able to overcome that and allow for some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. It will certainly not be anything that would cause you to cancel your Memorial Day weekend plans. All in all, it should be a very typical Memorial Day weekend across SW Louisiana. Saturday through Tuesday will be the status quo for late May and early June. That's right, we'll be in June on Tuesday can you believe that? High temperatures will continue to be running at or just above normal for the entire forecast area with low to mid 90s the expected high for each day, while morning lows start out in the lower 70s. This is also close to normal for this time of year. The long range models offer a continuum of our typical summer scheme. It is inevitably here to stay now until we get to the fall. We need a nice drought busting rain, and there are no signs of that anytime soon. The scattered afternoon showers and storms won't really help a whole lot since it's not a widespread rain event.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  70/93  71/93  72/94  0 30 0 30 0 30
LFT   70/94  71/95  71/94  20 30 0 30 0 30
BPT   71/95  71/95  72/95  0 30 0 30 0 30
AEX  68/95  69/95  70/96  0 30 0 30 0 20
POE  68/94  69/95  70/95  0 30 0 30 0 20
ARA  71/92  71/92  71/93  20 30 0 30 0 30


Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 70. Light SE wind.

Wednesday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Clear after a 20% chance of an evening shower or thunderstorm. Low 71. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 93. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SSE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Partly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 94. SSE wind 10-15 mph.


Wednesday 5/26/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear











Temp: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 3

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 78
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 9

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy











Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13

3p..m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Scattered Storms











Temp: 92
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15


6p.m.


Weather: Partly Cloudy, Scattered Storms











Temp: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear











Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 5


Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Wednesday
5-26-10











Low: 70
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100


Thursday
5-27-10











Low: 71
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 96-101


Friday
5-28-10











Low: 72
High: 94
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100


Saturday
5-29-10
Low: 73
High: 91
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 95-100


Sunday
5-30-10











Low: 73
High: 94
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 97-102


Monday
5-31-10
Memorial Day











Low: 74
High: 95
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 98-103


Tuesday
6-1-10
Hurricane Season Begins











Low: 75
High: 93
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 97-102


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Seas 1 foot. Scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the evening...then isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Wednesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.

Friday...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-



Friday, May 14, 2010

Chances for Much Needed Rain on the Upswing This Weekend...

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

One note before I begin...Hurricane Season is less than 3 weeks away now with its commencement coming on Tuesday, June 1. Thus, to prepare for the all important season ahead...I will begin hurricane preparation tips, terms, & tidbits on Monday. I will discuss what you should do before, during, & after the storm, and the list of storm names for the 2010 season. I will also define the common terms associated with tropical systems, and also discuss how the storms form, some myths, and some historical information. It will be a 2 week series beginning on Monday, May 17. I will have bits of information each day so as to not logjam you with information. That'll hopefully make it easier for you to understand and for you to be better prepared for the season above. If you have lived here for awhile, then you should have a very good understanding of what to do after what we've been through in the last few years, but it never hurts to have a refresher course. If you are new to the area, you may have no idea what to do, so that information will be very vital to you as well. Please look for that beginning Monday. Also, just below this section is a look at the moderate drought currently ongoing across the area.

The dry spell continues to worsen across the forecast area. The entire forecast area is under Moderate Drought Conditions. Some data compiled by the NWS Lake Charles helps to illustrate just how much we need rain across the area.

The following is a table for each reporting site that shows the total rainfall so far in May 2010, the normal expected rainfall for Spring, and how much rain has actually fallen this year. Also, included is the departure from normal for each category through today May 13.


Lake Charles

May                                  0.10"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present)  1.81"
2010 to Date                     9.49"

Departure from Normal

May                                 -1.46"
Seasonal                           -6.93"
Year                                 -8.05"


Lafayette

May                                  0.13"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present)  2.81"
2010 to Date                   10.63"

Departure from Normal

May                                 -1.34"
Seasonal                           -7.89"
Year                                -10.54"

Beaumont

May                                  0.01"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present)  3.25"
2010 to Date                   11.54"

Departure from Normal

May                                 -1.46"
Seasonal                           -5.81"
Year                                -6.56"


Alexandria


May                                  0.05"
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present)  3.09"
2010 to Date                   12.27"

Departure from Normal

May                                 -1.48"
Seasonal                          -9.16"
Year                              -10.92"


New Iberia


May                                  Trace
Seasonal (Mar 1-Present)  1.91"
2010 to Date                     8.65"

Departure from Normal

May                                 -1.42"
Seasonal                           -8.36"
Year                                -10.80"


Based on this information you can clearly see that the drought conditions are worsening across the area. There is a high fire danger and burn bans are in effect across much of SE Texas and Jeff Davis Parish in SW Louisiana. Many residents including those in the city of Lake Charles have been asked to conserve as much water as possible. Try not to water your lawn during the peak heating hours of the day. It is better to water early in the morning or during the late afternoon hours. Hopefully, we will get some much needed rainfall very soon to alleviate and/or end the drought conditions across the area before more serious problems arise. See the forecast discussion below!


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The dry spell continues! However, there are some signs of at least a temporary shift or breakdown of the current pattern to allow for a glimmer of hope for decent rain chances this weekend. More on that in a moment. First, today was nearly a repeat performance of every day this week so far. Some slight differences existed today in the form of more cloud cover due to some mid and upper level high cloudiness that kept skies Mostly Cloudy and filtered the May sun at times. High temperatures were held down a few degrees because of the extended cloud cover with mid to upper 80s commonplace across the forecast area. It remained rather windy across the area with a stiff onshore flow in response to an advancing storm system off to our North. Tonight will be quiet with the re-appearance of a low cloud deck towards morning. Expect muggy conditions with overnight lows in the mid 70s across the region.

The mid and upper level ridging is slowly beginning to break down, and the surface ridge to our East serving as a blocking mechanism is also beginning to shift further East and weaken. This will lead to some temporary changes over the next few days. The first signs of such change will begin on Friday. A slow moving late season cool front (I use that term loosely) and associated short waves in advance of it will be lumbering to the SE towards the forecast area. As a result, this will begin to weaken the cap in the mid and upper levels, and as daytime heating reaches its maximum potential, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon. It will certainly not be enough to write home about, and I will only mention a very slight 20% chance. This will certainly be a situation where most of us stay dry., and the lucky few that do see rain won't see it for very long, and it won't alleviate any drought conditions. There should more sunshine on Friday with generally Partly Cloudy skies expected. This should allow for temperatures to reach near the convective potential range around 90. Another, and perhaps more noticeable difference for Friday will be the winds. The pressure gradient will decrease over the area with the weakening high lifting out and the weakening low approaching. It will feel very much like a SW Louisiana summer day. Winds will be on the order of 10-15 mph instead of the 20-25 mph range that was experienced on Thursday. Any shower and/or thunderstorm activity quickly dissipates by sunset as the loss of daytime heating takes effect.

Rain chances continue to increase for the weekend. Before you gripe and moan about that, let me assure you that it will not be a washout by any means. The rain chances will ramp up as the feeble frontal boundary approaches and emanating short waves rotate out ahead of it. Now, for Saturday the mid and upper level ridging will still be trying to hang on such that a dramatic increase in rain chances is not expected. About an average chance (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms is expected for the first half of the weekend. Again, the most likely time frame will be during the afternoon as all the storms should be convectively enhanced and diurnally driven. Saturday temperatures will continue to be above normal with lows in the lower 70s, mainly for the possibility of rain cooled air. Highs will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday piques interest. The best chance of rain for this forecast period, and in the last couple of weeks will be in the offing for the second half of the weekend. This is when the flailing front limps its way towards the forecast area. There will certainly be ample low-level moisture in place, and the boundary itself and associated short waves will generate the necessary instability to produce thunderstorms. It is possible that this set up will favor an MCS moving through the area Sunday afternoon. Either way, rain chances should be in the likely category by Sunday afternoon in response to the weakening front. Rainfall amounts could exceed 1" in some locations, while unfortunately someone down the road comes out with virtually nothing. Hopefully, the MCS feature will develop because that would mean a greater likelihood that everyone will at least get some rain. No severe weather is expected at this time as all of the necessary dynamics needed to support such an occurrence will bypass this part of the world. There is still some disagreement with models on whether or not this front will make it through. I don't believe this is likely, but it will certainly be close enough to raise rain chances. A transition to a quasi-stationary boundary and eventual frontylsis will likely occur across the area. Sunday's temperatures will be reflected by the enhanced cloud cover and likely rain chances with lows near 70 and highs in the mid 80s at best.

The decaying boundary hangs around for Monday to keep rain chances enhanced for another day with areal coverage in the 40% bracket once again. The storms will be confined to the afternoon hours as the associated lifting mechanism and afternoon high work in tandem to produce the potential for storms. Again, no severe weather is expected. Sky conditions will vary from Partly to Mostly Cloudy for the entire forecast area. Low temperatures will continue to be mild, but maybe a wee bit cooler than they are at this time. Some upper 60s seem logical especially for the Northern half of the forecast area where somewhat drier air filters in behind the weak front. Afternoon highs won't change much at all with readings likely to stay in the upper 80s to near 90 across SW Louisiana. The pattern of persistence returns by Tuesday. The front decays, and the deeper low level flow off the Gulf returns as well. This will hopefully for a daily chance of scattered afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity with storms initiating each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, and convective potential temperature is realized. Slight daily variances are possible down the road that would allow for adjustment of rain chances one way or the other in the Tuesday-Thursday period, but being specific about small scale differences at this juncture is near impossible. That being said, rain chances will be maintained for the Tuesday-Thursday period, but dropped to a slight 20%. Seasonal temperatures are anticipated for this period with morning lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s each day through Thursday morning. Aside from Sunday, there really is nothing coming along to allow us some decent opportunities for much needed rainfall. The extended forecast offers more of the same with the opportunity for some scattered afternoon shower & thunderstorm activity through Memorial Day weekend (and through September most likely).


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast


LCH  74/90  72/88  71/85  0 20 0 30 20 60
LFT   73/91  71/88  71/86  0 20 0 30 20 60
BPT   75/90  71/87  71/85  0 20 0 40 20 60
AEX  70/92  68/87  67/85  0 20 0 40 30 60
POE  71/92  68/87  67/85  0 20 0 40 30 60
ARA  75/89  72/86  71/86  0 20 0 30 20 60


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy. Low 74. SE wind 10-15 mph.    

Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 90. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms. High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms in the evening. Low 71. SE wind 10 mph.

Sunday...Mostly Cloudy with scattered to numerous showers & thunderstorms likely. High 85. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.


Friday 5/14/10 Daily Planner


6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10

9a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 79
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 12

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 10%
Wind: SSE 14

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy w/ Isolated Thunderstorms
Temp: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy w/ Isolated Showers
Temp: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 13

9p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 83
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10



Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
5-14-10











Low: 74
High: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97



Saturday
5-15-10











Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 91-96


Sunday
5-16-10












Low: 71
High: 85
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93


Monday
5-17-10











Low: 69
High: 87
Rain: 50%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95



Tuesday
5-18-10











Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95


Wednesday
5-19-10

Low: 66
High: 89
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 92-97


Thursday
5-20-10











Low: 66
High: 90
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 93-98


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday Night...Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:     9:39p.m.
High:     4:39a.m.



...Toledo Bend...

   170.15'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Low:              77
Normal Low:  65
Record Low:  48-1895
High:              87
Normal High:  84
Record High:  92-1920

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 0.10"
Normal Month to Date:    2.33"
Year to Date:                   9.49"
Normal Year to Date:    18.31"
Record:                           3.23"-1966


Sensible Weather Observed Today:


None


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     72
High:     86
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      66
High:      85
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     67
High:     84
Rain:    0.61"


Sunrise Friday:   6:20a.m.
Sunset  Friday:   7:59p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday May 14

First Quarter- Thursday May 20

Full Moon- Thursday May 27

Last Quarter- Friday June 4


Have a Great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Seemless Transition to Standard Summer Scenario...

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

The prolonged dry spell continues, but the big story around our part of the world continues to be the Gulf Oil Spill. The winds and currents over the Gulf will continue to dictate the flow of the oil and oil residue. The current projections are for the leading edge of the oil slick to be approaching Atchafalaya Bay by Friday. More information is available at the following link.

Gulf Oil Spill

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Can we buy a raindrop anytime soon? That continues to be the $85,000 question. I will have the answer in a moment. First, today was another day in the continuous string of dry weather with Mostly Cloudy skies in the morning giving way to Mostly Sunny by late afternoon. It felt very much like a SW Louisiana Summer day, but of course null and void from the equation was the usual afternoon hit or miss thunderstorms. However, there was a pseudo sea-breeze that moved inland today. This is what helped the transition to Mostly Sunny skies across the forecast area by late afternoon. High temperatures touched 90 in many areas including right here in Lake Charles, this came after morning lows in the mid 70s across the area. The breeze was the only thing that kept it somewhat bearable today as Southerly winds blew in the 15 mph range on average. Quiet weather is in store tonight with lows down into the 70s again, and skies remaining clear until after midnight when a morning low cloud deck will re-develop.

Same song, same verse for Wednesday...the iPod is on repeat! The early morning low cloud deck will break up and give way to Partly to Mostly Sunny skies. A pseudo sea breeze is expected once again with the continued southerly fetch off the Gulf. The mid and upper level ridging will remain strong over the area, and continue to thwart any possibility of an afternoon thunderstorm. Maximums will reach near normal once again with readings expected to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The coolest locations will be at the coast, while the warmest locations will be North of I-10 further removed from the Gulf of Mexico (very typical of a summer afternoon). We need some rain as the drought continues to worsen across the area, but we will have to watch someone else get the rain we need for yet another day. Another short wave ejecting out from a major Western trough will swing through the Rockies tonight, and enter the Great Plains tomorrow. This will likely pose the possibility of another significant tornado outbreak across the heart of Tornado Alley as was the case on Monday. This similar system will ignite the West Texas dry line once again, and emanate NE out ahead of a slow moving cold front coming out of the Rockies. This front will come into play for our weather later in the forecast period.

The pattern of persistence will hang in through Friday with not much day to day variation wrt temperatures and sky conditions. An early morning low cloud deck is expected each morning, and this will give way to the Partly to Mostly Sunny skies mentioned above as daytime heating and winds combine to produce mixing of the atmosphere. The pseudo sea breeze scenario could also play out through Friday. The mid and upper level ridging in place will only slowly weaken, thus no rain chances are mentioned through the end of the work week. Temperature uniformity is expected as well with 70s for lows and upper 80s to near 90 for highs. It will remain on the breezy side for the latter half of the work week as storm systems continue to march across the country to our North, with only a slow SE progression of the Rockies trough towards our area.

Now, the weekend....The pattern breaks down and shifts just enough such that rain chances can return to the forecast. The upper and mid level ridging will try to hold firm, and it very well could especially Saturday, but at the same time the staggering cold front that will be producing severe weather outbreaks across Tornado Alley will be approaching the area. This boundary will co-exist with advancing short waves and additional atmospheric moisture to produce the chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon hours. These systems will aid in the weakening of the atmospheric cap. Better chances for shower & thunderstorm activity seem to be in order for the Sunday-Monday time frame as the front limps toward the coastline, and ejecting short waves continue to sprawl across the area. This will hopefully provide some much needed rainfall across these parts. The forcing appears to be strong enough to produce the possibility of rain, although the front is rather fickle. There does not appear to be any threat for organized severe weather across the forecast area during this time frame, although some isolated severe cells can't be ruled. Further evaluation of this possibility will be forthcoming in the days ahead. Rain chances could rise into the likely category for Sunday and/or Monday based on future model runs, but for now 30-40% seems like a logical call on percentages. Some drier air filters in behind the late season (almost out of season) cold front on Tuesday, thus in turn cutting off rain chances once again as high pressure is re-established over the Gulf South. The temperature regime for the weekend and early next week will be a familiar one with highs reaching the upper 80s while morning lows may cool off a degree or two mainly because of the prospects of rain. On Tuesday, the drier air may result in temperatures being a bit more refreshing in the mid 60s as opposed to the lower 70s across the area. All in all, a temperature regime that offers uniformity is expected for the entire forecast period. The prolonged dry period looks to continue in the extended, with no more than just day to day variations in the synoptic set up to dictate whether or not we will have a chance of afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day. This is what we rely on for the majority of our rainfall during our long summer season from May to September.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  74/90  73/89  72/88  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   73/90  73/89  72/88  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   75/91  73/90  73/89  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  70/92  70/91  69/90  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  70/91  70/90  69/90  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  75/88  74/89  73/87  0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear becoming Mostly Cloudy late. Low 74. South wind 10 mph.

Wednesday...Mostly Cloudy early, becoming Mostly Sunny. High 90. South wind 15-20 mph.

Wednesday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 73. South wind 10 mph.

Thursday...Mostly to Partly Sunny. High 89. South wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Thursday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 72. South wind 10 mph.

Friday...Partly Cloudy. High 88. South wind 15-20 mph and gusty.


Wednesday 5/12/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10

9a.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 13

Noon

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 17

3p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 20

6p.m.

Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 87
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 18

9p.m.

Weather: Mostly Clear
Temp: 81
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 14


Drew's 7 Day Forecast


Wednesday
5-12-10











Low: 74
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 93-98


Thursday
5-13-10











Low: 73
High: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 93-98


Friday
5-14-10











Low: 72
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 92-97


Saturday
5-15-10












Low: 72
High: 87
Rain: 20%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 90-95


Sunday
5-16-10











Low: 71
High: 87
Rain: 40%
Wind: S 15-20
H.I.: 88-93


Monday
5-17-10











Low: 70
High: 85
Rain: 40%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 88-93


Tuesday
5-18-10











Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Thursday Night...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      3:09a.m.       11:31p.m.
High:      9:44a.m.         8:26p.m.


...Toledo Bend...

   170.40'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Low:              76
Normal Low:  64
Record Low:  50-1981
High:              90
Normal High: 83
Record High: 91-1916

Rainfall

Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 0.10"
Normal Month to Date:    1.94"
Year to Date:                   9.49"
Normal Year to Date:    17.92"
Record:                           4.14"-1971


Sensible Weather Observed Today:


None


One Year Ago (2009)

Low:     71
High:     87
Rain:     0.00"


5 Years Ago (2005)

Low:      66
High:      87
Rain:     0.00"


10 Years Ago (2000)

Low:     76
High:     85
Rain:    0.00"


Sunrise Wednesday:   6:21a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:    7:58p.m.


...Lunar Table...

New Moon- Friday May 14

First Quarter- Thursday May 20

Full Moon- Thursday May 27

Last Quarter- Friday June 4


Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-

Friday, May 7, 2010

Persistent Prolonged Dry Spell to Prevail...

Thursday, May 6, 2010

On this National Day of Prayer, let us pray for our family and friends...that they will always be there for us, and us for them as well. Pray that they live long, happy, and healthy lives. Let us pray for our nation and our leaders, no matter what our political affiliation. We pray that they make decisions for the good of our country, and decisions that our faith based, and God driven. Pray for the brave men & women of the U.S. military wherever they are serving! Pray for their safety, and for a safe journey home soon! Let us pray for the victims of the recent flooding, and for the victims of the Gulf oil spill. We pray that it won't be as bad as we currently fear it will, and we pray that the economic and ecological impacts won't be so severe. We pray for a speedy cleanup process of the Gulf of Mexico and its habitat. We pray for protection from all enemies foreign and domestic. We pray for those who don't know You or have a personal relationship with your Son. God, we pray for your protection during the upcoming hurricane season...may you guide all storms safely away from anyone. Pray for what you hold near and dear to your heart! Remember, we pray to a God that hears all and knows all. He knows what's best for us, so never give up faith if He doesn't right away. All prayers are answered in due time...in His time! God, we need you now more than ever before!

I will close with the words Jesus Christ, Our Savior taught us.

Our Father Who Art in Heaven
Hallowed by Thy Name
On Earth As It Is In Heaven
Give Us This Day Our Daily Bread
And Forgive Us Our Trespasses
As We Forgive Those Who Trespassed Against Us
Lead Us Not Into Temptation
And Deliver Us From Evil

For Thine is the Kingdom, The Power, & The Glory Are Yours

In the Name of the Father, the Son, & the Holy Spirit

-Amen-

National Day of Prayer 2010


Before I get to the forecast discussion, just a quick note...We continue to monitor the progress of the Gulf oil spill. We continue to hope and pray for the best, and we wait with much anxiety to see how fast the oil spill can be contained. The prevailing winds and Gulf currents will dictate which direction the majority of the oil ends up moving. The spill is in an area where two Gulf currents come together, thus resulting in a split flow of the water in the Gulf. The prevailing flow West of the Mississippi is from West to East (paralleling the LA coastline, and pushing oil  towards SW Louisiana). While East of the Mississippi River the flow steers everything to the ESE towards Florida. The directional winds also factor into the equation. For example, the wind direction for tonight into Friday will be from the S or SE, this would bring the oil slick towards the Louisiana coast, with oil nearing Grand Isle tonight. A portion of the oil slick is now West of the Mouth of the Mississippi. The oil travels about 1-2 mph. The winds will shift behind a cold front early Saturday, and this will help us in the short term as the North wind would push the oil further offshore, but by early next week an Easterly to SE flow is expected to develop once again, and this will likely drive the oil back towards our coastline, and since the size of the spill is expected to grow, oil will push in all directions, aided by the prevailing wind. It could reach SW Louisiana in the coming days, and some of it could reach all the way to the Florida Keys in a couple weeks. Stay tuned and keep praying! The International Space Station captured an image of the Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill from space on Wednesday. Here is that image.


















SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...There's not much to say really! No large scale weather changes are expected through the forecast period, therefore this forecast package is one of persistence. Thursday was another sun-filled early May day with pleasant humidity once again, and above normal temperatures during the afternoon. Morning lows were pleasant once again with readings in the mid to upper 50s. Similarities will exist tonight, but some modification of temperatures will occur tonight in response to a temporary onshore flow. High pressure has moved Eastward, and a zonal flow (W to E) is prevalent across this part of the world. Skies will remain clear overnight. Expect Friday morning lows to range from the mid to upper 60s, this is trending slightly above normal. The only blemish tonight is some high clouds streaming in via the zonal flow from Texas out ahead of a Great Plains disturbance.

An increase in humidity will be the most noticeable change on Friday as a strengthening low-level flow brings in higher humidity values. A cumulus deck will be denoted during the afternoon as the more moist atmosphere and daytime heating work in tandem to produce the clouds. Skies will be no worse than Partly Cloudy, and likely be Mostly Sunny for the most part. A nice breeze will be present in the afternoon once again in response to an advancing trough and associated cold front. Humidity values won't be terribly oppressive, but will certainly be higher than they've been all week. Afternoon highs will be similar with average readings in the upper 80s across the forecast area. Some increase in clouds will be noted for the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame. This will be in response to a weakening cold front coming out of the Great Plains, and going against the zonal flow across the area. This front will only help to increase the clouds. No rainfall is expected as dynamics will be absent, and low level convergence will be next to nothing as well. These factors will negate any hope for rain. The front should move into the area early on Saturday, and progress into the coastal waters before it stalls out over the Gulf Saturday. Drier air filters in behind the front Saturday. As the drier air takes over, skies will clear and plenty of sunshine is anticipated Saturday. All weekend outdoor events will be given a "thumbs up". Saturday highs may be a bit cooler only because of limited sunshine during the morning, but it should certainly reach the mid to upper 80s once again. A light offshore flow develops Saturday morning.

The second half of the weekend for Mother's Day looks great as well. Plenty of sunshine is expected, and some slightly cooler air will be in place for Sunday morning. Morning lows should be around 60. Lots of sunshine is expected as high pressure will be in place. At the same time, the stalled front over the Gulf will begin to slowly retreat Northward, and the high humidity will creep back towards the area. Mostly Sunny skies are expected Sunday, and it will turn out to be a pleasantly warm May afternoon if mama wants to go outside. Maximum temperatures should reach the middle 80s, just about average for the second week of May. It should be great weather all weekend to wrap up Contraband Days. See you there!!!

The forecast period for Monday-Thursday is certainly a persistence based forecast. The stalled boundary over the Gulf will pull Northward, and as it does so here comes the deep low-level moisture. Humidity will be back with a vengeance by Monday, and remain with us through Thursday, and likely for the next 4 months. Surface high pressure orients itself to our East, and mid and upper level ridging remains in place during this time, thus suppressing rain chances through the forecast period. Skies will be Partly Cloudy each day with certainly enough heating and plenty of low-level moisture in place to generate a cumulus field. A largely zonal flow will be the dominate pattern across the Gulf Coast, and this will block all major storm systems from affecting our area. Thus, rain chances are next to nothing through the forecast period. Temperatures will trend towards above normal for morning lows which stand right at 70, while high temperatures will have no problem reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. It will feel like it's well into the 90s as the heat index comes into play. Atmospheric suppression will continue through the forecast period, and beyond with no sign of any significant rain chance for another 10-14 days. We need rain in a big way right now, drought conditions are developing and growing more severe each day. The big story to watch in the coming days will be the winds, as this will have an impact on the oil slick in the Gulf.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  65/88  70/86  61/85  0 0 10 10 0 0
LFT   64/88  69/86  60/86  0 0 10 10 0 0
BPT   67/90  72/87  62/87  0 0 10 10 0 0
AEX  62/90  62/84  56/84  0 0 10 10 0 0
POE  62/91  62/85  57/84  0 0 10 10 0 0
ARA  67/89  72/86  62/86  0 0 10 10 0 0


Tonight...Mostly Clear. Low 65. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 88. SSE wind 10-15 mph.

Friday Night...Partly Cloudy. Low 70. SSE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph after midnight.

Saturday...Mostly Cloudy early, becoming Mostly Sunny. High 86. North wind 10 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear. Low 61. NE wind 5 mph.

Sunday...Sunny. High 85. East wind 10 mph.  


Friday 5/7/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5

9a.m.


Weather: Sunny
Temp: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 8

Noon

Weather: Mostly Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11

3p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 14

6p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 84
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 12

9p.m.

Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 11

Drew's 7 Day Outlook


Friday
5-7-10











Low: 65
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: 90-95


Saturday
5-8-10











Low: 70
High: 86
Rain: 10%
Wind: N 10-15
H.I.: 85-90


Sunday
5-9-10
Mother's Day










Low: 61
High: 85
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: 83-88


Monday
5-10-10











Low: 65
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: ESE 10-15
H.I.: 85-90


Tuesday
5-11-10











Low: 71
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97


Wednesday
5-12-10











Low: 72
High: 91
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 93-98


Thursday
5-13-10











Low: 72
High: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 15-20
H.I.: 95-100


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday Night...South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 feet.

Saturday...Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet.

Saturday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Sunday...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:        4:37a.m.     6:59p.m.
High:      11:07a.m.    11:03p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Low:                   57
Normal Low:      63
Record Low:      51-1987
High:                  88
Normal High:     82
Record High:     90-1984

Rainfall

Today:                           0.00"
Month to Date:              0.11"
Normal Month to Date: 1.01"
Year to Date:                9.49"
Normal Year to Date:  16.99"
Record:                         3.78"-1935


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None

Sunrise Friday:          6:25a.m.
Sunset Friday:           7:54p.m.


...Lunar Table...

Last Quarter- Tonight May 6

New Moon- Friday May 14

First Quarter- Thursday May 20

Full Moon- Thursday May 27


Have a great Friday & God Bless!
-DM-

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Prolonged Dry Spell Continues...

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Before I get to the discussion, there's a few other items I want to discuss.

First, you have seen all the news reports about the unbelievable flooding that is occurring across Tennessee and Kentucky. This is part of the strong storm system that moved through the area over the weekend. These areas were hammered with over 20" of rain in some places in a 2 day period. The worst flooding in the history of Nashville, TN has resulted, with much of the city flooded including some of the most notable landmarks in town such as LP Field and the Grand Ole Opry. Several fatalities have resulted in Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky from the weekend storms. The flooding was the big story, but there were also numerous tornadoes as well especially across Arkansas. I will have more information on this in the coming days, and focus on exactly what caused the catastrophic flooding across the Tennessee Valley.  Our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this violent storm.

Next, hurricane season is less than a month away, can you believe it? That being said, it is time to get prepared for the season ahead! Do you know what you should do? Do you have a hurricane plan in place? If you've been here awhile, then you should know what to do because we've been through so much in the last 4 years. It is essential to be prepared just in case a storm comes our way in 2010. There is absolutely no way of knowing if that will happen at this point, and all the preseason forecasts are just that! I am not one for making a forecast for the coming season, for it is not numbers that are relevant, it is location! What does it matter if there are 20 storms, but none are influential with a landfall in the United States? If there's only one, and landfall occurs then it becomes a bad season for whoever experiences that storm. Many people are asking me what are my thoughts about the 2010 season. Without giving a specific forecast for how many storms, I will post my thoughts in the coming days on what to expect. Also, some changes have been implemented by the National Hurricane Center in the issuance of watches and warnings. I will post these and discuss these as well. Also, included will be the list of names for the 2010 season. Look for this and more as we prepare for the 2010 hurricane season this month.

Next,  as you know it has been very dry across these parts lately. It has been a very dry spring thus far, and April of 2010 was one of the top 5 driest at almost all reporting sites in the Lake Charles NWS forecast area. Here is some rainfall data compiled by the National Weather Service in Lake Charles. All of the following data comes from the NWS Lake Charles unless otherwise noted.

April 2010 was the driest on record at Lake Charles. In 2010 only 0.11" of rain fell during the month. The top 5 driest Aprils are listed.

1. 0.11" in 2010
2. 0.38" in 1931
3. 0.40" in 1999
4. 0.47" in 1987
5. 0.52" in 1978

Lake Charles was the only location in which April 2010 ranked as the driest ever, however, nearly every recording site in the forecast area recorded a top 5 driest April. In Lafayette, it was the 3rd driest April on record.

1. 0.45" in 1987
2. 0.48" in 1971
3. 0.55" in 2010
4. 0.59" in 1976
5. 0.67" in 1965

Beaumont's April record in 2010 ranked as the 4th driest of record.

1. 0.26" in 1987
2. 0.35" in 1965
3. 0.36" in 1978
4. 0.37" in 2010
5. 0.39" in 1947

Alexandria also came in with its 4th driest April of record. Here's the top 5 driest for Cenla.

1. 0.27" in 1987
2. 0.38" in 1930
3. 0.43" in 1965
4. 0.50" in 2010
5. 0.52" in 2003

At New Iberia, it was abnormally dry with 1.25" of rain recorded, however, this doesn't rank among the top 5 driest at Acadiana Regional Airport. It should be noted that the average rainfall for the month of April across SW Louisiana, Central Louisiana and SE Texas ranges from 3.64" at Lake Charles to 4.72" at Lafayette and 4.56" at New Iberia. Alexandria averages 4.94" for April, and over in SE Texas, Beaumont comes in with an average of 3.86" for the month of April. I would like to take the dry Spring into further account. The average rainfall for the months of March & April combined across the area should be a little over 7" at Lake Charles. This year only 1.71" of rain has fallen during meteorological Spring. This is a deficit of nearly 5.50" for this time frame. Spring is typically our dry season, but even this is dry by South Louisiana standards. It has been a dry year overall now despite the extremely wet winter we had. So far, through May 4, a total of 9.49" of rain has fallen at Lake Charles. This gives a yearly deficit of  6.59". Typically, by this point in the year we should have picked up just shy of 16" with an average of 15.98" through May 4 at Lake Charles. Hopefully, we will get some rain soon.


Lastly, our thoughts and prayers continue to be with all those who were lost in the oil rig disaster in the Gulf, and their families and friends as well. We continue to pray that the disaster will not be as bad as it is currently feared. Wind direction will play a major role in controlling where the oil slick winds up, as the winds and different currents drive the flow of the water in the Gulf. Traces of the oil have hit the SE Louisiana coastline, and the size of the oil leak is expected to continue to grow, and oil slick will continue progressing towards the Gulf Coast states from Louisiana to Florida. The economic and ecological disaster that this poses will be severe. Pay very close attention to the wind forecast over the next several weeks. This will entail where the oil will wind up.


Now onto the forecast discussion...

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The stretch of unseasonably warm and dry weather continues, and it will for the foreseeable future. Tuesday was a beautiful day across the area with a re-enforced high in place across the area. This was in the wake of a secondary cool front which moved through overnight Monday. This didn't do much for our weather, as the clear skies and low humidity from Monday carried over to Tuesday. Temperatures were pleasant in the morning with upper 50s across the area. Afternoon readings were on the warm side, and in some cases hot. It was a bit cooler than Monday, however. The high on Monday at Lake Charles was a unseasonably hot 95, and this one degree off a record for the date. It was a cool (relatively speaking) 90 on Tuesday. Humidity values were in the comfortable range, and this helped to keep the heat index out of the equation. The controlling high pressure will hang around for the next 24 hours, and pleasant weather will continue to be the name of the game. Upper 50s are expected for minimums once again tonight, and this is just a tad below normal for early May. However, on Wednesday another fast warm up will ensue as you would imagine with the dry air and higher sun angle doing its magic. Highs will tease 90 once again, give or take a degree. Expect another day of sunny skies and lower humidity as the high pressure remains locked in place.

The controlling high will slowly shift Eastward through the next 24 hours. The refreshing nights spill over into Wednesday night into Thursday, but temperature modification takes shape as a return flow commences with the orientation of the high to our East. The humidity values will start an upward tick as well at this time, but it should still be fairly tolerable for Thursday. Morning lows will nudge back into the 60s, while afternoon highs cool a bit, but solely as a result of increased humidity and the onshore flow. Expect maximums to hold in the upper 80s, still above normal for the first week of May. More changes occur as we head into Friday. An advancing late Spring storm will be making inroads across this great country. It will be coming out of the Rockies and Great Plains into the Mid West. The storm track is far removed from our area this week, and this trend is forecast to hold firm for week's end as well. Therefore, while some changes are forecast, no large scale synoptic changes or weather features are in the offing. Certainly, there will be ample low level moisture and humidity in place by Friday, such that the skies transition from Sunny to Partly Cloudy during the day. It will also be a bit breezy in response to the advancing storm system. Temperatures tend towards above normal for both lows and highs by this time with lows in the mid to upper 60s, and highs remaining in the upper 80s to around 90. A heat index will come into play by this time, as the high humidity make for uncomfortable feelings in the afternoon. It will feel like a South Louisiana summer day. The forecast remains rain free for this period.

If there is to be any rain at all in this forecast period it would come Friday night into Saturday, but this doesn't seem likely at this juncture. This is especially true given the way things evolved the past two weekends when it did look like it was going to rain, and we ended up with very little rainfall in the bucket both times. This time, with the storm track further North, it really will be an iffy proposition. However, that being said, a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm is possible in the Friday night-Saturday morning time frame as the storm system moves Eastward to our North, and its associated trailing cold front (albeit weak)  moves through the forecast area. The amount of low-level moisture in place could be enough to conjure up a few returns on the radar, but if you get rain you will be the lucky one. I will not certainly insert any chance of rain for this time period, but I will monitor future model runs for any necessary revisions. We need the rain, but maybe this isn't the right weekend for that. That's good news because it's the second weekend of Contraband Days and Mother's Day. Some drier air filters into the region for the weekend behind the weak front. It is a weak front, and I am reluctant to say cooler air, because fronts do very little for us this time of year in this established pattern. Morning cloudiness associated with the weak boundary on Saturday morning will give way to a great deal of sunshine by afternoon, and more sun than clouds are expected on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above the seasonal values with lows back to near 70 for Saturday, and in the mid 60s Sunday. Highs should be in the upper 80s to around 90, doesn't sound much difference does it? At least, it might turn out to be comfortably warm at Contraband Days this weekend, and skies should be beautiful Saturday night for the fireworks.

Into next week, it can be summed up just by saying expect an early summer status quo. Rainfall will continue to be hard to come by as mid and upper level ridging strengthens across the area. Humidity values will increase once again as a pronounced onshore flow develops once again with a surface high oriented to our East. The persistent onshore flow will allow for an afternoon cumulus field to develop, but the high pressure aloft will suppress sea breeze activity during the afternoon hours. It is the afternoon sea breeze that we rely on during the summer months for the majority of our rainfall. Temperatures will remain above seasonal with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs in the upper 80s. The prolonged dry spell will continue through the forecast period, and there is no sign of any significant pattern change through the next 7-10 days. Eventually, we will see some day to day variations that will allow for sea breeze activity to develop, and produce some rainfall across the area. This will become more common in the second half of this month, as we complete the transition to our standard summer scenario. We desperately need some rain, for I fear we are developing a drought situation as we head into our long summer season around these parts.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  59/90  61/88  66/89  0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT   60/91  60/89  66/89  0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT   61/92  64/88  67/89  0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX  55/92  58/90  63/91  0 0 0 0 0 0
POE  55/92  58/90  63/90  0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  61/89  62/87  66/88  0 0 0 0 0 0


Overnight...Clear. Low 59. Light Wind.

Wednesday...Sunny & Hot. High 90. South wind 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 61. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Thursday...Sunny. High 88. South wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear. Low 66. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Friday...Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy. High 89. SSE wind 10-15 mph.


Wednesday 5/5/10 Daily Planner

6a.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 59
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 2

9a.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 7

Noon

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 82
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8

3p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 90
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10

6p.m.

Weather: Sunny
Temp: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 8

9p.m.

Weather: Clear
Temp: 77
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 6



Drew's 7 Day Forecast


Wednesday
5-5-10











Low: 59
High: 90
Precip: 0%
Wind: S 5-10
H.I.: 85-90


Thursday
5-6-10
National Day of Prayer









Low: 61
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 85-90


Friday
5-7-10











Low: 66
High: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 88-93


Saturday
5-8-10











Low: 70
High: 87
Rain: 10%
Wind: SW 10-15
H.I.: 90-95


Sunday
5-9-10
Mother's Day











Low: 65
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: SW 10
H.I.: 90-95


Monday
5-10-10











Low: 68
High: 88
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 10-15
H.I.: 90-95


Tuesday
5-11-10











Low: 71
High: 89
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 92-97


...Marine Forecast....



Tonight...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday Through Thursday...South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday Night...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:      2:18a.m.
High:     10:34a.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary....

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Low:                61
Normal Low:   62
Record Low:   46-1954
High:               90
Normal High:  82
Record High:  93-1910

Rainfall

Today:                             0.00"
Month:                             0.10"
Normal Month to Date:    0.66"
Year:                               9.49"
Normal Year to Date:    16.64"
Record:                           1.60"-1944


Sensible Weather Observed Today:

None


Sunrise Wednesday:     6:26a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:      7:53p.m.



...Lunar Table....

Last Quarter- Thursday May 6

New Moon- Friday May 14

First Quarter- Thursday May 20

Full Moon- Thursday May 27


Have a Great Wednesday & God Bless!
-DM-