Weekend Warmth to be Displaced with Cold & Wet Weather for the Work Week...

Sunday, November 29, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...As we close out the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, I hope everyone had a great time with family and friends. What kind of weather can we expect as we close out November,  reach the end of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season, and the start of meteorological winter? As we close out the Thanksgiving holiday weekend changes are bountiful. After a cold and clear start to the holiday weekend, a significant warming trend has occurred on the back end with a pronounced return flow off the Gulf out ahead of a vigorous trough and attendant cold front. Clouds increased at all levels across the forecast area today, and as people head home from the holiday conditions are dry, but it is overcast the entire forecast area. Temperatures warmed from the 30s for lows at the beginning of the holiday weekend, to the 50s this morning, while afternoon highs warmed from the upper 50s and lower 60s to the unseasonably mild mid to upper 70s. The mild trend will continue overnight as the cold front impinges on the forecast area. Expect temperatures to hold in the 60s overnight for most, but as the cold front enters the extreme Northern portion of the forecast area, temperatures will fall into the 50s in this area. The front currently stretches from near San Antonio to Tyler to Texarkana to near Jonesboro, AR. Rain and a few thunderstorms are occurring along and behind the boundary. The front will make steady progress to the SE overnight, and be near a Houston to Shreveport line overnight, and from a Lake Charles to Monroe line by 6a.m. and a Lafayette to Jackson, MS line by 10a.m. A few showers will be noted across the forecast area overnight ahead of this boundary, but the majority of rainfall should occur behind the front. A few sprinkles or light showers are beginning to develop at this time as moisture continues to increase ahead of the boundary. For the most part, conditions should be dry until after midnight.

A significant rainfall event unfolds as we get into Monday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more prominent as the boundary nears and convergence increases. Behind the front, CAA will take over and temperatures will begin to decline. Rain chances will ramp up significantly around daybreak, first for the convergence zone ahead of the front, and then for the overrunning that will occur behind it. A strong SW flow aloft will remain in place in the upper levels behind the front, and this is what will result in our rain event for Monday. The significant rainfall expected this week is really a two-parter. The first part is with the front, and the overrunning behind it for Monday. The persistent SW flow will hang around for awhile, because of a slow moving Upper Level cut off from the main flow across the country. This low is currently over Baja California. The SW flow aloft will keep warm air riding up and over the cool air filtering in at the surface. The cool air will filter into the forecast area during the day Monday, and as a strong CAA pattern is established temperatures will begin to fall Monday morning as the rain falls. The morning temperatures will be in the lower 60s, and Monday will be a day where the high occurs between midnight and 6a.m. most likely. Temperatures will fall from the lower 60s to the lower 50s by the end of the day. The first round of rain will taper off Monday afternoon as the front slips further into the Gulf, and drier air temporarily filters into the mid and upper levels. Rain chances will not be eliminated entirely as a moist layer will remain in place as winds remain from the SW aloft, and CAA with NNE winds continues at the surface. Cloudy skies will remain even after the rain tapers off Monday. It will become quite breezy as well with a significant pressure differential behind the front. CAA continues Monday night and temperatures fall off into the 40s, but the cooling potential will be limited due to the cloud cover and periodic showers. Rainfall percentages will be highest Monday morning through early afternoon as periodic perturbations embedded in the SW flow aloft rotate through behind the front. For the remainder of the day, rain chances will be tempered downward with only a small chance in place for Monday night with the brief reprieve. Rainfall amounts across the area for the first round should be about an inch or so with isolated higher amounts up to 3" possible.

Cold, wet, and windy will be the weather conditions through mid-week. Tuesday will be almost the opposite of Monday as far as the timing of rainfall. The ULL will slowly trudge Eastward across the Rio Grande Valley of South Texas and Old Mexico through Monday. It will work in tandem with energy from the Subtropical Jet to initiate cyclogenesis off the Texas coast late Monday night. This will cause an additional surge of Gulf moisture to override the cool layer of air at the surface. CAA will be continuing all the while. Tuesday should start dry for the most part with just cool and overcast conditions in place. The wind remain an issue as well. In fact, it will likely only get stronger Tuesday as the Gulf low strengthens and treks towards South Louisiana. The end result will be a very small diurnal range with temperatures likely not exceeding 50. Rain will overspread the area by Tuesday afternoon as the low lifts NE. The low will track NE along the frontal boundary, which will stall, over the Gulf. The eventual track of this low will dictate how much rainfall we see for the second go-around. Rain will certainly heavier and more likely across the Southern tier of the forecast area, but rain chances will be on the high side for the entire forecast area. As of right now; based on the prognosticated track of the low the worst weather with this system should remain over the Gulf, but certainly heavy rain will be possible along and south of the I-10 corridor. Severe weather isn't anticipated at this time with either event. That being said, some thunderstorms can't be ruled out even in the cool, stable atmosphere over the forecast area with the CAA continuing. Some elevated convection could develop, and some rumbles of thunder may occur. Rain will become likely Tuesday afternoon, and remain high overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday as the low approaches the coast before evacuating to our NE. Rain chances will nearly max out during this time frame. Windy conditions will prevail as mentioned previously with winds out of the NNE in the 20-30 mph at times. Even stronger winds are expected in the offshore waters with high waves and seas. This will be the type of system that is very definitive of an El Nino regime along the Northern Gulf Coast. Rainfall amounts with the secondary part of this rain maker should be on average of 1-2" with higher amount up to 4" possible by the time the event winds down on Wednesday. There could be some coastal flooding issues as well as some localized urban flooding depending how much rain we get, but this is something that will be fine tuned on Monday.The graphic below depicts the expectant rainfall amounts for the week.

The rain will end on Wednesday, but the cold weather will stick around. It will truly feel like early December. Can you believe it's going to be December already? CAA will remain in place, but drier air will move in at all levels as the low moves up into the Central Gulf Coast region Wednesday morning. The rain will end in a graduated fashion from West to East across the forecast area on Wednesday. In its wake, the clouds will hang tough for the remainder of the day, and it will be another cold and blustery day with a small diurnal range expected. I don't expect temperatures to get out of the 40s on Wednesday either with lows in the low 40s and highs in the mid to upper 40s. The strong winds will produce a wind chill for the Tuesday-Wednesday period as well. While the actual temperature will be in the 40s, wind chill readings for each day will be in the 30s at times. High pressure will replace the departing low for the latter half of the work week, and this will help to erode the cloud cover across the forecast area in the Wednesday night time frame. A cold Canadian high pressure building in out of the Canadian Provinces will result in the coldest weather so far this season. Temperatures for Wednesday night will be in the 30s area wide with Northern portions of the area getting very close to freezing by sunrise Thursday morning. The remainder of the area should be in the frosty category with the exception of the coast. Mid 30s seem logical for the I-10 corridor, similar to this past Friday. As the high  pressure builds in, winds will calm down as well, however, it won't be until Thursday that they go nearly calm. Wednesday night/Thursday morning will still feature a wind chill with winds out of the North at 10-15 mph. Wind chill readings could be in the 25-30 degree range by sunrise Thursday.

Thursday and Friday will be beautiful and cool. Thursday will remain quite cool. Under sunny skies, temperatures will not eclipse the 60 degree mark, likely topping out somewhere in the 50-55 range. Thursday night/Friday morning will bring the coldest temperatures so far this season as high pressure penetrates the Northern Gulf Coast. I would expect a pretty good freeze for the Northern portions of the area with some upper 20s not out of the realm of possibility. 30s will be experienced elsewhere, with the chance for a light freeze down to I-10. I will keep temperatures above freezing for the time being for Friday's minimum at least for Lake Charles & Vicinity, but a freeze is very likely at locations like Alexandria, Fort Polk, Oakdale, DeRidder, Jasper, Silsbee, Bunkie, Opelousas, and Marksville. Either way it will be cold, and I'll refine this forecast as we go through the week. A modest warming trend begins Friday afternoon with readings reaching the 55-60 degree range.

Benign weather remains in place for the Friday night/Saturday time frame. The high will slide Eastward during the day Friday with a return flow commencing Friday night. Therefore, temperatures will not be as cold Friday night. Temperatures should remain well above freezing across the area with upper 30s to mid 40s expected. A more pronounced return flow and warming trend ensues Saturday as the high keeps moving Eastward, and yet another front develops in the lee of the Rockies. Saturday should remain dry, but clouds will increase as we get into the afternoon. Temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s for Saturday afternoon with Southerly winds intensifying ahead of the next front. The next rain chance enters into the scheme of things at the end of the forecast period next Sunday. This, as the next cold front works through. A decent shot of rain is possible with this front, but it looks like a quick mover. The air behind this front doesn't look near as cold since this should be more of a Pacific air mass. Sunday temperatures will be mild ahead of the boundary with morning lows around 50 to the lower 50s, and highs a tad warmer than Saturday ahead of the front. The usual timing differences are present this far out, so I'll be more specific as we get closer. Beyond the forecast period, an active weather pattern should remain in place through the first half of December. December is rarely a boring weather month around here, and this should hold firm in an El Nino year.


Tropics: The season officially ends Monday. So, does this section of the blog until June 1, 2010.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH   66/51   45/48   42/46   70 70 30 90 100 60
LFT    63/52   45/50   41/46   70 70 30 80 100 70
BPT    66/50   46/49   42/47   70 70 30 90 100 60
AEX   63/49   43/47   40/45   80 70 20 80   90 60
POE   63/49   44/48   40/45   80 70 20 80   90 60
ARA   64/53   46/51   43/48  70  70 30 80 100 70


Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely after midnight. Mild with temperatures holding in the mid 60s. SSW winds 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 70%.

Monday...Cloudy, Windy, and Turning Colder with showers and thunderstorms likely, tapering off in the afternoon. High around 62 early with temperatures falling through the day into the lower 50s by late afternoon. SSW wind 15-20 mph and gusty early, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty in the morning. Chance of rain 70%. Rainfall totals around 1" on average with higher amounts up to 3" possible.

Monday Night...Cloudy and Windy with a 30% chance of rain. Low 45. NNE wind 15-20 mph and gusty.

Tuesday...Cloudy, Windy, and Cold with rain becoming likely by afternoon. Heavy rain at times. High 48. NNE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.

Tuesday Night...Cloudy and Windy with Rain likely. Rain heavy at times. Low 42. NNE wind 15-20 mph anf gusty. Chance of rain 100%. Wind chill readings 30-35 by morning.

Wednesday...Cloudy and Windy with Rain Likely in the morning. Rain ending in the afternoon. Cold. High 48. North wind 20-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Monday
11-30-09

Low: 66
High: 51
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20


Tuesday
12-1-09

Low: 45

High: 48

Rain: 90%

Wind: NNE 15-20

W.C.: 30-40

Wednesday

12-2-09

Low: 42

High: 46

Rain: 60%

Wind: N 20-25

W.C.: 30-40

Thursday

12-3-09

Low: 36

High: 53

Rain: 0%

Wind: N 10-15

W.C.: 25-40

Friday

12-4-09

Low: 33

High: 56

Rain: 0%

Wind: NE 5-10

Saturday

12-5-09

Low: 40

High: 62

Rain: 0% 

Wind: SE 10-15

Sunday

12-6-09

Low: 52

High: 65

Rain: 60%

Wind: SSE/NNW 15-20

...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory Monday through Wednesday.*

Tonight...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight.

Monday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Monday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely after midnight.

Tuesday...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely.

Tuesday Night...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Showers likely.

Wednesday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers.

...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:     6:40a.m.   8:17p.m.

High:     2:15a.m.   9:28p.m.

...Toledo Bend...

    171.44'

...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Low:                  56

Normal Low:     46

Record Low:     22-1911

High:                 77

Normal High:    67

Record High:    88-1912

Rainfall

Today:                          0.00"

Month to Date:             1.93"

Normal Month to Date: 4.46"

Year to Date:              63.87"

Normal Year to Date: 52.44"

Record:                        3.14"-1977

Sunrise Monday:     6:51a.m.

Sunset Monday:      5:12p.m.

Monday Hunting Times:   6:21a.m.-5:42p.m.

...Lunar Table...

Full Moon- Wednesday December 2

Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9

New Moon- Wednesday December 16

First Quarter- Thursday December 24 (Christmas Eve)

Good night and God bless!

-DM-

Terrific Thanksgiving Weather...Chances for Frost on Friday Increasing...Changes Over the Weekend...

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The forecast discussion is coming up momentarily. This will be my final forecast discussion before Thanksgiving. Depending on the weather situation over the weekend, I will resume updating the blog on Saturday or Sunday. First, I wanted to take time out to post my Thanksgiving message. Please scroll down afterward for the forecast!

What is Thanksgiving? Thanksgiving is a special time to gather with family, friends, and loved ones and give thanks for the many blessings we have in our lives, and enjoy tons of food and football. It all started back in 1621 when the Pilgrims celebrated the first Thanksgiving as a way of thanking God for a good harvest. Of course, we celebrate a bit differently here in modern times. Although Thanksgiving wasn't officially declared a national holiday by Congress until 1941, it was first declared as a day of thanksgiving by President Abraham Lincoln in October of 1863. Lincoln issued a proclamation from Washington, D.C. on October 3, 1863 in the midst of the Civil War. Here is the great manuscript from one of our greatest presidents.

"The year that is drawing toward its close has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added which are of so extraordinary a nature that they can not fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever-watchful providence of Almighty God.

"In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign states to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere, except in the theater of military conflict, while that theater has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.

"Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defense have not arrested the plow, the shuttle, or the ship; the ax has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well as the iron and coal as of our precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege, and the battlefield, and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom.

"No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.

"It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently, and gratefully acknowledged, as with one heart and one voice, by the whole American people. I do therefore invite my fellow-citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next as a day of thanksgiving and praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners, or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the imposition of the Almighty hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it, as soon as may be consistent with the divine purpose, to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquility, and union.

"In testimony whereof I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed."

-Abraham Lincoln-


As we celebrate Thanksgiving 2009...I ask What are you thankful for? I know what I'm thankful for. First and foremost, I am thankful to God. God has blessed me with a great family and friends. The love and support they give me is the best anyone could hope for. He has blessed me many times over in my life. I have a great home, and enjoy great meals everyday. I am thankful to live in such a beautiful place, Lake Charles, LA. This is home, and will always be home. I am blessed with good health. I am so thankful that God has helped me achieve what I have achieve so far in my life, and pray that there is so much more yet to achieve. I am thankful that I am able to do what God has willed me to do. I am so blessed that He has provided for all my needs, and I know He always will. I am so thankful that He is always there no matter what, and He knows all of what is going on in my life, and I am thankful that I know if He leads me to it, He'll lead me through it. Without Him I would have nothing, I would be nothing. Thank you, God, you get all the glory!!!

I am thankful to my parents...the best parents anyone could ever have! They've been monumental in helping my get where I am today, and without their support I couldn't have done it. With all my many struggles through school, they never gave up on me. God truly blessed me with great parents! Thank you mom and dad!

I am thankful that I live in the greatest country in the world...the United States of America! I am thankful for the many freedoms that go along with that, and for such brave men and women in the United States Military that fight to keep our country free. They truly are our real heroes, and I thank all of you for your service to this country, past, present, and future. My thoughts and prayers are with all of you wherever you are around the world or here at home. God bless you and God bless America!


There are so many people who are less fortunate than myself and many of us out there. This, and every Thanksgiving, we remember those less fortunate than we are. We remember those who aren't able to enjoy all of the same freedoms that we do no matter what their situation is. This has been a tough year economically for many. Whether people have had a rough year economically, mentally, physically, etc. we pause to think about all of you. I pray that God watches over you, and provides for you in every way soon.

As we gather with our family and friends for a great meal and great time together this weekend, I hope that you will remember to pause and pray for those less fortunate, and to thank God for all He has blessed you with in your life. Also, as we head into the Christmas season, and all of the hustle and bustle that comes with it...lest you not forget the real and only Reason for the Season, Our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ! Please keep Christ in Christmas!!!

On a lighter note, and in closing, thank all of you who have viewed the blog in the last 4 months. Thank you for coming here for all the weather information you need. I hope that you will continue to do so, and help me gain viewership by spreading the word. Weather is my dream and my passion, and I am so dedicated to this. Thank you for letting me share some weather knowledge with you! It is your viewership that helps me keep this blog as fresh as possible. Look for bigger and better things to come on this blog in the near future. God bless all of you, and may His many blessing rain down on you this holiday season, and forever. Thank you, God bless, and Happy Thanksgiving! Now onto the forecast discussion...


SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...On this Thanksgiving Eve, it feels holidayish with very cool temperatures in place as high pressure in is complete control. It was an absolutely beautiful day across the forecast area today with nary a cloud to be found The nearest precipitation was over Florida, and across the Upper Mid West. It was a cool start with lows in the mid 40s this morning while afternoon highs were right on target with readings in the mid 60s. The humidity was exceptionally low with values in the 30-35% range. Winds are very light across the area, and CAA has temporarily ceased with the nearly calm winds with high pressure over North Texas. For tonight, radiative cooling will take shape, and it will be quite chilly across the entire forecast area. Areas of frost are likely in the coldest locations North of Highway 190 as temperatures reach the mid 30s. Patchy frost can't be ruled out in areas closer to I-10 as temperatures dip into the upper 30s including here in Lake Charles, but it shouldn't be as much of an issue in this area tonight. The coast will be quite cool as well by morning with overnight minimums there in the low to mid 40s.

Thanksgiving 2009 will offer terrific turkey weather. A re-enforcing dry cold front will move through, and it is currently en route tonight. It is moving through the Ozark Mountains of Northern Arkansas. It extends Northward into the Mid West wrapping into an Upper Level Low pushing towards Lake Michigan. This front will move through during the day Thanksgiving likely from mid-late morning across the forecast area, and you'll hardly even notice it. Winds will pick up behind it for a bit, but that'll be about the only weather associated with it. After the chilly morning start, a modest warm up is expected with highs a bit cooler than that of today. Maximums should be near 60 to the lower 60s as a CAA regime is re-established. The coldest night of the season so far is slated for Thanksgiving night into Friday morning for Black Friday. High pressure will reside very close to SW Louisiana, therefore, maximum radiational cooling will occur. The air will be dry enough that some of the coldest locations across the forecast area such as Oakdale and DeRidder could experience their first freeze of the season with temperatures settling into the lower 30s by sunrise Friday. However, while most of us will avoid freezing temperatures, most of us will see our first frost including Lake Charles and Lafayette. Minimums for the rest of the forecast area will be in the mid to upper 30s; quite chilly indeed. So, if you are heading out in the wee hours Friday morning for some black Friday shopping, bundle up. Of course, you could just do what I do, and stay in the warm bed!!!The only thing that could prevent us from getting as cold as forecast would be some high clouds streaming in from W to E via the Subtropical Jet Stream, but this is not forecast at this time as the anticyclone is very strong, and will likely shunt the clouds into the Gulf.


Friday will be another gorgeous day as the high remains over Louisiana for much of the day. After a cold start with the frost possibilities, temperatures will warm up nicely into the mid 60s...similar to today in all actuality! CAA processes will basically end for good Thursday night as winds decouple and go calm. A very light return flow will set up sometime Friday afternoon as the large high pushes ESE into the Gulf. Clear skies will prevail for Friday night, but a moderating trend will commence with the re-established onshore flow. Saturday mornig lows will not be near as cold, but still chilly, nonetheless. Many locations North of I-10 should experience another night in the 30s, while the rest of us will be a bit warmer with readings back into the 40s. The warming trend really firms up on Saturday with readings into the upper 60s to near 70 in some locales for afternoon highs. It should be another day of ample sunshine on Saturday despite the onshore flow. The junk is way out over the Gulf, so it'll take a while for it to get here. Some high clouds will be streaming in from time to time across the forecast area in advance of a maturing storm system coming out of the Rockies. This will be our next weather. Great weather is expected for the McNeese and LSU games on Saturday. McNeese hosts New Hampshire in the first round of the FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is at 2p.m. at Cowboy Stadium, and you can expect sunny skies with a temperature at kickoff of 67, while temperatures by the end of the game will be near 60...very comfortable. LSU plays a night game on Saturday, yes the game with Arkansas is on a Saturday this year after being on Friday for the last several years. They'll host the Razorbacks at 6p.m. in Tiger Stadium. The weather for the "Battle for the Boot" should be great. Clear skies with a kickoff temperature of 58 while temperatures by game's end will be near 50. Leave the umbrella in the car this time!

The period of Saturday night into Sunday will be dry as well, but a noticeable increase in clouds and low level moisture will be documented as the high slides further East in response to the maturing storm system to our West. Air mass modification will be in earnest for Saturday night with morning lows by sunrise Sunday ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.Winds will also be on the increase thanks to pressure differential between two systems. Deeper moisture moves into the forecast area late Sunday as a potent late fall storm system will begin to unleash its effects on the area. A deep trough and attendant cold front will be approaching the area at this time, and as the moist influx from the Gulf continues rain chances will return to the forecast late Sunday. It is still a situation where timing is an issue, but that is a decision that will be deferred until the second half...err after Thanksgiving. For now, the official forecast will introduce rain chances for Sunday night, keeping the daylight hours of Sunday dry. This is another important travel day, so we'll see how it pans out in later forecasts. The moderating trend continues Sunday with highs around normal to slightly above. Expect a high near 70. A SW flow aloft develops in response to energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream which will be energized by the developing Great Plains system. This will cause periodic perturbations (disturbances) to move from SW to NE across the forecast area ahead of the approaching sharp cold front. It is too early to prognosticate the prospects of any severe weather potential, but with a quick turnaround ahead of and behind this system, it is possible with such a large amount of energy needing to be displaced. There are a lot of factors that go in to determining whether or not we'll have a severe threat, and a key factor is where an expectant low pressure will track out ahead of the cold front. The jury is up for deliberation on where this low will track, but I do suspect that Western Gulf cyclogenesis will occur once again. Each model run varies to some degree, so again I'll defer this decision to the second half.

Rain chances find their insertion into the forecast Sunday night, and increase from there on out through Monday. Rain could be heavy at times with or without the presence of a severe weather threat. I will hold off until later on specificity of rainfall amounts. I am confident enough at this point that the heaviest rain and higher chances for rain will come on Monday as the surface low-cold front conglomeration moves through. Mild temperatures will continue until this time with Monday morning minimums in the mid 50s. My best guess right now is that the strong front will push through Monday late morning through early afternoon. Not much warming is expected Monday with the clouds and rain and expected arrival of the cold front. It will ultimately be a tricky temperature forecast for Monday depending on the movement and timing of said front. For now, I will forecast highs around 60, before falling back into the 50s as strong CAA is established behind the front thwarting any more warming potential. A significant change has occurred in the latter portions of the forecast compared to last night's forecast package. There is more run to run consistency from the models that the rain will not end once the front moves through. The pattern favors an overrunning situation beginning Monday night extending into Wednesday. This will keep clouds and rain in the forecast, with the potential for a secondary Gulf low on Tuesday, likely producing another round of heavy rain with added instability. Cold air will be working into the forecast at this same time, so while morning temperatures may not be as cold as first thought for Tuesday/Wednesday, afternoon temperatures will be colder. The strong CAA will likely keep temperatures in the 40s for lows and highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, so it will quite raw with the rain. The wind will add insult to injury with stiff NE winds with the secondary low in the Gulf. This solution seems reasonable in an El Nino year. This will be a very common weather pattern this winter. So, it looks like we'll get into it right on cue for the start of meteorological winter on Tuesday. If the current projections are right, then we may not clear out until around Thursday of next week behind the secondary low and trailing cold front which will keep us on the cold side through the end of the work week into the first weekend of December. Stay in touch this weekend for the break down on the system at the beginning of the week!


Tropics: Turn out the lights, the party is over!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH   39/61   36/64   41/67   0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT    39/60   35/63   39/66   0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT    41/63   38/65   43/68   0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX   37/59   33/62   37/65   0 0 0 0 0 0
POE   38/59   34/62   37/66   0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA   40/62   36/63   40/66   0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Clear and Cold with Patchy Frost North of I-10. Low 39. Calm wind.

Thanksgiving Day...Sunny. High 61. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Thanksgiving Night...Clear and Cold w/ Areas of Frost after Midnight with the exception of the Coastal Parishes and Counties. Low 36. Calm wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 64. Light North winds in the morning, becoming Light & Variable in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Clear and Not as Cold. Low 41. Light South wind.

Saturday...Sunny. High 67. South wind 5-10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Thursday
11-26-09
Thanksgiving

Low: 39
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15
W.C.: 35-40 A.M.


Friday
11-27-09

Low: 36
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: L & V 5-10
W.C.: 30-35 A.M.


Saturday
11-28-09

Low: 41
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: S 5-10


Sunday
11-29-09

Low: 54
High: 72
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20


Monday
11-30-09

Low: 55
High: 60
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE/NNW 15-25


Tuesday
12-1-09

Low: 44
High: 48
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 30s


Wednesday
12-2-09

Low: 43
High: 47
Rain: 60%
Wind: NNE 15-25
W.C.: 30s


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 feet.

Thursday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Thursday Night...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.

Friday...North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Friday Night...North winds around 5 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot.

Saturday...South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Isolated showers.

...Tide Data...

Thursday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass:

Low:    5:29a.m.     3:45p.m.
High:   10:10a.m.    9:27p.m.


...Toledo Bend Pool Level...
   172.14'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Low:                46
Normal Low:   47
Record Low:   27-1950
High:               67
Normal High:  68
Record High:  87-1913

Rainfall
Today:                              0.00"
Month to Date:                 1.92"
Normal Month to Date:    3.83"
Year to Date:                63.86"
Normal Year to Date:   51.81"
Record:                        10.00"-1895


Sunrise Thursday:        6:47a.m.
Sunset Thursday:         5:13p.m.


Thursday Hunting Times:   6:17a.m.-5:43p.m.


...Lunar Table....

Full Moon- Wednesday December 2

Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9

New Moon- Wednesday December 16

First Quarter- Thursday December 24 (Christmas Eve)


Happy Thanksgiving!
Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Turning Cooler Tonight...Great Weather for Thanksgiving...Big Changes Late in the Weekend...

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The much advertised cold front has pushed through the majority of the forecast area tonight. No rain was noted ahead of the boundary, as all of the shower and thunderstorm activity remained over the Gulf where beneficial instability existed thanks to the Subtropical Jet Stream. This activity put the kibosh on inflow from the Gulf, which would have aided in the development of shower and thunderstorm activity over land areas across the forecast area. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the Gulf has been suppressed further to the S and E tonight as the front works into the coastal waters. High clouds from the Subtropical Jet are streaming over the area at this time, but all of the low clouds have since vacated the region as drier air takes over. The high clouds will depart overnight as a strong anticyclonic flow becomes established for the Northern Gulf Coast in the wake of the front. It remained dry for the day despite overcast conditions throughout the day. Some fog was noted across much of the area early this morning, but this fog burned off by mid-morning as the usual atmospheric mixing processes took place once the sun came up. Temperatures were very much seasonable across the forecast area with generally a light E to SE flow in place.

Clearing will occur overnight as the front continues to progress SE. It currently runs along a Franklin to Baton Rouge to McComb, MS to between Jackson and Meridian, MS line. As the front slides further and further to the SE; the dry air filtering into the region will deepen, and the skies will clear after midnight. The back edge of the high clouds is back to our West along a line from near Houston to Shreveport. The entire forecast area will be clear by morning. CAA processes will be in place overnight with temperatures cooling from the current readings in the lower 60s into the mid to upper 40s by sunrise Wednesday. A Northerly breeze is denoted, and this will continue on the order of 5-10 mph through the overnight. Wednesday will be a dandy day with nothing but sunshine and seasonable temperatures with afternoon highs in the mid 60s. It is sure to be great weather for traveling for the many of you who have travel plans for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Take your time...be careful, and hopefully I-10 will be cleared up. There is virtually no change in the forecast philosophy since the last forecast package.

Wednesday will begin an extended period of dry, cool, perfect fall weather. Thanksgiving 2009 will be outstanding! A re-enforcing cold front will move through during the day on Thanksgiving Day. This front will work through with minuscule amounts of moisture under a dry NW flow aloft. A chilly start is in the offing on Thanksgiving morning with lows ranging from the mid 30s towards Alexandria to the lower 40s along the coast. Upper 30s to near 40 seem logical for the I-10 corridor. High temperatures will be a touch cooler on Thanksgiving Day compared to Wednesday. This is in part due to the re-enforcement. Expect a maximum in the lower to middle 60s. Some frost is possible mainly for the Northern portion of the forecast area first thing Thanksgiving morning. A better chance of frost comes along Friday morning for a larger area. The first frost of the season is certainly possible down to the I-10 corridor from Beaumont to Lafayette. A very light Northerly flow will persist overnight Thursday as high pressure dominates to the n^th degree. This will allow for nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions. As a result, expect overnight lows to drop into the mid 30s for the Northern half of the forecast area, and upper 30s down to the I-10 corridor. The coastal sections should avoid any frost potential with readings hanging in the lower 40s. Either way, Friday will be a bit cold, so take notice if you are going to be out and about early on Black Friday. I'll be in my warm bed, but that's just me! At least with a cold start, it'll feel like Christmas. Friday will be a beautiful day with extremely dry air in place. Afternoon highs should be a smidge below normal for late November ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Friday night offers another possibility for a frost in the same areas with similar temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area with high pressure virtually overhead.

Changes begin on the backside of Thanksgiving weekend. Not so much on Saturday, as it should be another beautiful day after the cold start. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s, back close to seasonable. A return flow off the Gulf commences Saturday afternoon as the large Canadian anticyclone slides Eastward. This will occur in advance of our next storm system which will be taking shape on the Lee side of the Rockies. Air mass modification will begin Saturday. The weather still looks great for the weekend ball games with pleasant temperatures. Clouds will begin to increase Saturday night with a noticeable increase in low-level moisture ahead of the advancing trough. Overnight lows will be closer to normal for the end of November. Expect minimums heading into Sunday morning to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The overnight period of Saturday should be dry with just the increase in clouds noted. On Sunday, the changes continue in earnest. You could call it a pretty quick turnaround from the superb weather we'll be enjoying over Thanksgiving. Clouds will lower and thicken throughout the day Sunday, and Southerly winds will increase. Cyclogenesis to some degree will occur during the day, but the exact location is still uncertain. I'll fine tune this after Thanksgiving as the event gets much closer. Much of the day should remain dry, but rain chances enter the forecast Sunday mid-late afternoon as the system approaches. Today, models suggest a faster system with the associated trough and attendant cold front pushing into the region very late Sunday night into the wee morning hours on Monday. While rain is nearly a certainly for this time, it remains to be seen if there will be severe weather or not. It certainly is possible especially if a surface low tracks from SW to NE across the forecast area over land as opposed to over the Gulf like last weekend. Again, this is a matter that will be honed in on more specifically after Thanksgiving. The bottom line at this point is that rain is likely during the late Sunday-Monday time frame. I will also defer my forecast for total expected rain amounts until later forecasts. Sunday highs should exceed by near 70. Mild weather will prevail until the front gets here ETA TBD.

Rain and storms continue for Monday morning as the deep trough and surface low pull away. Rain will linger much of the day Monday, but we'll transition from the rain and thunderstorms, to more of a light rain during the day as we get into a strong CAA situation in the wake of the trough. The air mass behind this front looks like it will be the coldest air of the season. I am sticking to my guns with the temperature forecast for Monday. Highs should occur in the morning, and will be somewhere in the 50s before falling back into the 40s during the day with the vigorous NNW flow in place behind the front. Rain will taper off Monday afternoon as drier air filters into all levels of the atmosphere. Winds will be gusty behind the front as well with an intense pressure gradient force in place. Skies clear Monday night, and the coldest temperatures so far this season with temperatures well down into the 30s by Tuesday morning. The first freeze of the season is possible behind this system, but whether or not that occurs on Tuesday or Wednesday (2 December) remains to be seen. For now, I will not forecast it for Tuesday morning since I expect winds to remain up a bit with high pressure still to our West, but it will certainly be cold on Tuesday. Wind chills will likely be in the 20s first thing Tuesday morning, and even with sunny skies expected highs won't be much above 50...remaining well below seasonable values as we start meteorological winter and the last month of the year and the decade...what??? The bottom line here is that it'll feel a heck of a lot like winter to start December whether we experience our first freeze of the season or not. Stay tuned!


Tropics: Cold turkey!


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH   45/65   39/62   37/64   0 0 0 0 0 0
LFT    46/65   40/61   36/63   0 0 0 0 0 0
BPT    44/65   41/62   38/64   0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX   42/64   37/59   34/61   0 0 0 0 0 0
POE   43/64   38/60   35/61   0 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  48/66    40/62   38/63   0 0 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Decreasing Cloudiness and Cooler. Low 45. North wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 65. North wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear and Cold with Patchy Frost. Low 39. Light North wind.

Thanksgiving Day...Sunny. High 62. North wind 10-15 mph.

Thursday Night...Clear and Cold with Areas of Frost after midnight. Low 37. Calm wind.

Friday...Sunny. High 64. NE wind 5-10 mph. 


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Wednesday
11-25-09

Low: 45
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10-15


Thursday
11-26-09
Thanksgiving Day

Low: 39

High: 62

Rain: 0%

Wind: N 10-15

Friday

11-27-09

Low: 37

High: 64

Rain: 0%

Wind: NE 5-10

Saturday

11-28-09

Low: 43

High: 67

Rain: 0%

Wind: NE/SE 10-15

Sunday

11-29-09

Low: 51

High: 70

Rain: 30% PM...80% Overnight

Wind: SSE 15-20

Monday

11-30-09

Low: 50

High: 53

Falling into the 40s in the Afternoon

Rain: 80% Before Daybreak...60% During the Day

Wind: NNW 20-25

Tuesday

12-1-09

Cold

Low: 34

High: 50

Rain: 0%

Wind: NNW 15-20

W.C.: 25-30 A.M.

...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory through 9a.m. Wednesday.*

Tonight...North winds 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.

Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday...North winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thursday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

Friday...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.


...Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:     5:59a.m.   2:29p.m.
High:     7:58a.m.   9:19p.m.


...Toledo Bend...
   172.20'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Low:               49
Normal Low:  48
Record Low:  28-1911
High:              68
Normal High: 68
Record High: 90-1915

Rainfall
Today:                           0.00"
Month to Date:              1.92"
Normal Month to Date:  3.67"

Year to Date:               63.86"

Normal Year to Date:   51.65"

Record:                          2.41"-1986

Sunrise Wednesday:     6:47a.m.

Sunset Wednesday:      5:13p.m.

Wednesday Hunting Times:  6:17a.m.-5:43p.m.

...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Tonight November 24

Full Moon- Wednesday December 2

Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9

New Moon- Wednesday December 16

Good night and God bless!

Happy Thanksgiving!

-DM-

Next Cold Front on Track for Tuesday Afternoon...Cool & Dry for Thanksgiving...Trending Colder for Next Week...

Monday, November 23, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It was a nice day across the forecast area with weak high pressure in control. Areas of fog were present early this morning, but the fog quickly dissipated and sunshine replaced the fog. Low clouds continued to plague Northern portions of the forecast area this morning, before finally burning off after lunch. Temperatures were mild on this Monday afternoon with readings ranging from the mid 60s around Alexandria to the lower 70s for Lake Charles, Lafayette, and Beaumont. High pressure has shifted to our East, and a return flow of low-level moisture from the Gulf has commenced. The return flow will continue overnight ahead of our next cold front. Expect overnight lows to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area with skies remaining mostly clear. Patchy fog can't be ruled out across the forecast area, but it should not be as much of an issue on Tuesday morning as it was this morning.

The cold front is making good headway tonight, and as of 10p.m. extends along a line from the Rio Grande Valley between Marfa to between Wichita Falls and Dallas to near Tulsa, OK up into Central Kansas and Nebraska. There is no rain along the front at this time until you get into Kansas and Nebraska, and most of that is on the back side in the vicinity of the attendant upper level low.The front will continue surging SE through the overnight hours, and move into the forecast area during the day Tuesday. Instability and dynamics are lacking, so an organized rain event is not expected. All of the energy associated with the Subtropical Jet Stream will remain suppressed to our South over the big pond. There is sufficient enough low-level moisture in place, and of course, the presence of a lifting mechanism to generate some shower/thunderstorm activity. The best chance for any shower and thunderstorm activity will come between noon and 4p.m. The cold front should enter the forecast area extending from near Houston to Toledo Bend by mid-morning Tuesday, and along a Beaumont to Fort Polk line shortly after noon. The boundary should reach a Lake Charles to Alexandria line by 2p.m., and a Lafayette to Natchez, MS line around 4p.m. The front will move through quickly thanks to fast upper level support, so any rain short be short-lived, and without the presence of sufficient dynamics, no severe weather is expected. Ahead of the front, a moist air mass will remain in place Tuesday morning with temperatures quickly rising into the low to mid 70s area wide. Some sunshine is possible early, but generally we should endure Mostly Cloudy skies for Tuesday. Certainly not everyone will see rain, and forecast philosophy really has changed all that much since last night. However, that being said, I will raise rain chances a bit based on the fact that there is beneficial low-level moisture in place, and the close proximity of the deeper moisture and instability over the Gulf. It'll be a situation where it comes in, and gets out almost as fast. As a new round of CAA commences in the wake of the front Tuesday afternoon, winds will shift and pick up behind the front over land, and winds and seas will follow suit offshoreThe expected quick movement of the front will most definitely limit rainfall amounts, and the forecast models suggest this. I expect totals to range from almost nothing to up to 1/2" in some locations, but on average amounts should be less than 1/4". This is illustrated by the map below.

Conditions quickly improve Tuesday night with clear skies returning, and temperatures dropping back to below normal levels. By Wednesday morning, 40s are expected area wide, and with the wind it'll feel quite chilly with the apparent temperature in the 30s. NNW winds of 10-15 mph will be present as a pressure differential remains in the wake of the front, and as we await high pressure to build in right overhead. Wednesday is the busiest travel day of the year, and the weather looks great for any travel plans you may have. Sunny and cool will be the name of the game as Tuesday's front pushes everything way out into the Gulf. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s, just a smidge below normal for late November. Benign weather will rule the roost for much of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Thanksgiving Day itself looks great with morning lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area. A secondary front will come through during the day on Turkey Day, but with no fanfare. The only noticeable weather will likely be the wind. High pressure in place will result in nearly calm winds early in the day, but the winds will pick up once again as the front moves through continuing the offshore flow. The re-enforcement will traverse the forecast area during the afternoon hours on Thanksgiving. Afternoon highs won't really be much different than that of Wednesday with the same air mass in place. The coolest nights of the season so far are on tap for Thanksgiving night and Friday night as a stronger area of high pressure nestles into the Northern Gulf coast region. Frost will be likely for many locations including Lake Charles & Vicinity and Acadiana. Temperatures for both Friday and Saturday morning should be in the mid to upper 30s across the forecast area with the exception of the coast where low 40s are a good call. High temperatures Friday will be a bit cooler behind the re-enforcing shot of cool air with upper 50s to lower 60s expected. On Saturday, a moderating trend will commence late in the day as the large anticyclone slowly moves East of the "Big Muddy". Temperatures will be back in the low to mid 60s once again. It'll be nearly perfect for the McNeese playoff game vs. the University of New Hampshire at 2p.m. in Cowboy Stadium. Looks good for LSU vs. Arkansas too on Saturday night in Death Valley. A subtle low-level return flow will start Saturday evening.

A quick warming trend will follow as the high vacates the region, and the low-level onshore flow intensifies on Sunday. This, as another storm system begins to encroach on the area. There is still some wonderment as to how strong it will be, but the general consensus is that it could be a phased system. That is, a surface low forming out ahead of the advancing trough and cold front, and another upper level low on its back side. There are all kinds of scenarios that could play out with this system as we get into Sunday. The majority of Sunday will be dry, and forecast philosophy hasn't changed all that much since last night. Clouds will certainly increase Sunday along with humidity and winds. Temperatures will moderate as well with morning lows back into the 40s, and highs reaching near 70. I will insert a chance of showers for Sunday afternoon, but better chances will enter the forecast overnight as the strong system approaches. The trough will be digging as it comes out of the Rockies, and energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream will be thrown into the equation as you would expect with an El Nino pattern. The Sunday night/Monday period offers the best chance for rain this forecast period. Some thunderstorms will be possible with much more energy in place this go around. The best chance for thunderstorm activity should come Monday morning ahead of the front. Timing is an issue at this point, and its too soon to get specific about an ETA especially since models are all over the place on the timing and the intensity of the storm system. The upper level pattern favors a turn to much colder weather behind this next front. In fact, Monday looks like a day with falling temperatures. It could very well be in the 60s in the morning, before quickly dropping into the 40s behind the boundary in the afternoon. A period of overrunning rain is possible on Monday as well, and I will already put rain chances in the likely category for Monday. The temperature forecast will be a tricky one. Monday ends this forecast period, but there is enough consistency at this point, to begin mentioning that the coldest air of the season will follow the front on Monday as the upper level flow taps into some Arctic air currently over Canada. This would produce the first widespread freeze of the season across the forecast area just in time for the beginning of meteorological winter, Tuesday December 1. Depending on how much of the cold air gets in here, we could see some 20s area wide by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday...we'll just have to wait and see. I'll certainly fine tune this forecast after Thanksgiving, but at this point I believe it is safe to say the trend is for cold for the first part of December. December is often an active weather month, and if the trend that I am seeing right now is any indication, then December 2009 will be no exception.


Tropics: Quiet. This section will be discontinued after next Monday, the 30th as this will mark the official end of Hurricane Season 2009. It will return on Tuesday, June 1, 2010.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH   52/72   45/65   40/63   0 30 0 0 0 0
LFT    51/74   46/64   40/62   0 40 0 0 0 0
BPT    55/72   48/66   42/63   0 30 0 0 0 0
AEX   49/70   43/62   37/59   0 30 0 0 0 0
POE   50/70   44/62   38/60   0 30 0 0 0 0
ARA   53/73  47/65   41/63   0 40 0 0 0 0


Tonight...Partly Cloudy with some Patchy Fog toward morning. Low 52. Light SE wind.

Tuesday...Patchy Fog dissipating early, otherwise Mostly Cloudy with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly between noon and 4p.m. High 72. SE wind 10 mph becoming NNW at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night...Clear, Windy, and Cooler. Low 45. NNW wind 15 mph and gusty.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 65. North wind 10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Clear. Low 40. Light North wind.

Thanksgiving Day...Sunny. High 63. NNW wind 10-15 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Tuesday
11-24-09

Low: 52
High: 72
Rain: 30%
Wind: SE/NNW 10-15


Wednesday
11-25-09

Low: 45
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 10


Thursday
11-26-09
Thanksgiving Day

Low: 40
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Friday
11-27-09

Low: 37
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Saturday
11-28-09

Low: 39
High: 65
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Sunday
11-29-09

Low: 47
High: 71
Rain: 30%
Wind: SSE 10-15


Monday
11-30-09

Low: 50
High: 58
Falling back into the 40s in the afternoon
Rain: 70%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-25


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Tuesday...East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.

Tuesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers in the evening.

Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

Thanksgiving Day...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:    1:29p.m.
High:    9:09p.m.


...Toledo Bend...
   172.24'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, November 23, 2009

Low:               52
Normal Low:  48
Record Low:  28-1975
High:              71
Normal High: 68
Record High: 91-1975

Rainfall      
Today:                           0.00"
Month to Date:              1.92"
Normal Month to Date: 3.51"
Year to Date:              63.86"
Normal Year to Date: 51.49"
Record:                        1.80"-1986


Sunrise Tuesday:    6:46a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:     5:13p.m.


Tuesday Hunting Times:  6:16a.m.-5:43p.m.


Good night and God Bless!
-DM-

Mild & Dry to Start the Week, Cool & Dry for Thanksgiving...

Sunday, November 22, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion....The string of nice weekends was broken!!! After a dreary weekend with persistent rain for much of Saturday, and a low-level stratus deck in place today, conditions will vastly improve to start the abbreviated work week. Our most significant rainfall in a good 3 weeks occurred on Friday and Saturday in response to the Gulf low, and cut off upper level low which moved right overhead Saturday. This type of system is very typical of an El Nino pattern, and I would certainly expect this scenario to repeat itself many times over the next few months, but not this week. It was quite cool for the entire weekend with temperatures remaining in the 50s for the most part for much of the area. Temperatures remained below seasonable values today with the overcast conditions. Highs were generally around 60, although warmer conditions occurred across SE Texas where a good deal of sunshine was experienced. The low clouds hung tough over Louisiana around the back side of the low pressure which was over Florida this afternoon. Skies have finally cleared across much of SW Louisiana, but still remain in place over much of Acadiana. The rest of the forecast area will slowly clear out overnight. However, there is another issue to contend with tonight. It is very common this time of year when the nights are longer than the days for fog to develop, and tonight is certainly one of those nights. The widespread rainfall of the couple of days, the clearing skies, calm winds, the remaining low-level moisture in place, and lack of daytime heating today will all combine to produce very favorable conditions for fog development overnight. It won't be foggy everywhere, but the majority of the area should see some fog. It will be dense in some locations by morning, and for this reason a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for much of the forecast area. This excludes Acadiana where the low clouds will hang tough. Expect the fog to form and gradually get thicker overnight, with visibilities in some locales less than 1/4 of a mile. The fog will quickly burn off Monday morning. It will be seasonably cool overnight with lows in the mid to upper 40s in areas where it is clear, but for Acadiana temperatures will be some degrees warmer because of the clouds.

Monday, as fate would have it, will be very nice after a lackluster weekend. As soon as the fog dissipates early Monday morning, it will be a sunny and pleasant day across the forecast area with weak high pressure in control. Highs will reach the lower 70s. Light and variable winds will prevail, before becoming SE in the afternoon as the weak high slides away from the forecast area. The subtle return flow will not be so noticeable at first with clear skies expected for the day. Quiet weather continues Monday night, but some clouds will return after midnight as the return flow becomes more pronounced. Expect overnight minimums to be a bit warmer in the lower 50s. Fog should be much of a problem with the increase in clouds and enough winds to keep the atmosphere mixed up. Our next cold front is on the docket for Tuesday. Another chance of rain is slated ahead of this, but moisture and dynamics will be limited across the area, so a significant rain event is not expected. It will be the front itself that creates the necessary lift needed to generate showers and thunderstorms. It is prudent to include the rain chances with the approaching boundary, but I stress that not everyone will see rain in this situation. It will be another in and out situation as well, similar to last Monday. A thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, but certainly no severe weather is expected. Rainfall amounts will be sparse with generally a 1/4" or less. Only about a 20-30% chance of rain is inserted in the forecast. This could fluctuate a bit between now and Tuesday, but I don't see it much higher than about 30% as there is good consistency with the models that dynamics will be lacking. A fast upper level flow will be driving this system through the area quickly...it's trying to stay ahead of all the Thanksgiving traffic. A strong onshore flow will be present ahead of the front Tuesday in response to the usual pressure differential ahead of a trough. The current estimated time of arrival of said cold front right now looks to be between 20Z and 23Z (2p.m.-5p.m. CST). A quick turnaround will occur behind the front as well with a steep offshore flow replacing the onshore flow as the moist air mass is displaced. Mild temperatures will prevail for Tuesday with maximum expected to be in the lower 70s ahead of the front, before falling late in the wake of the boundary. CAA takes over and skies clear quickly on Tuesday night with high pressure building in behind the front. Expect cooler overnight lows with readings falling back into the 40s with gusty North winds. 

Wednesday is a very important day as it is often dubbed the "busiest travel day of the year". Many people will be hitting the road, or taking to the skies for a Thanksgiving destination. Locally, the weather looks great for travel or anything on Wednesday. High pressure will dominate the forecast, and this will set us up for an extended period of fabulous fall weather. Clear and cool conditions will be present to start Wednesday with mid to upper 40s. It will continue to be a bit breezy as CAA continues in the wake of Tuesday's front. Highs will be below seasonable averages, but not by much with official readings in the low to mid 60s. The air mass behind Tuesday's front will be similar to the one that was present last week. The weather for Thanksgiving 2009 looks about as good as it ever gets in SW Louisiana and SE Texas. The trough over the Eastern U.S. will amplify (intensify) as we head into Thanksgiving. This will make the NW flow aloft already in place more pronounced and drive a re-enforcing front through the area. Moisture will be scant, so no rain is expected, and likely not even a cloud. The clear and pleasant conditions will be re-enforced with even cooler weather to follow for the rest of the Thanksgiving weekend. For Thanksgiving itself, expect a morning low in the lower 40s. Afternoon highs will be a shade cooler thanks to the re-enforcement; expect low to mid 60s.

Friday is a big shopping day, but if you're like me you won't be anywhere near a store...maybe you'll be outside doing something else enjoying what will be a great day. The coolest morning of the season appears to be on tap with high pressure in place nestled right over Texas. The strong high will build in from the Central Plains. Some areas saw frost mid-week last week. Many of these same areas will likely see frost again by Friday morning, and perhaps a few additional areas including perhaps here in Lake Charles. Mid to upper 30s seem likely for minimum values across the forecast area for Friday morning. Highs will be a bit cool, but it'll feel great with readings between the upper 50s and lower 60s. It should feel cool after all, right? It is Thanksgiving after all. The perfection continues for Saturday with the pronounced anticyclonic flow in place with the strong ridge residing along the Gulf coast. Another cold morning should materialize with upper 30s to lower 40s area wide while afternoon highs reach the mid 60s under wall-to-wall sunshine. It should be fantastic for some playoff football at Cowboy Stadium. McNeese hosts the University of New Hampshire in the 1st round of the FCS Playoffs, but it is a day game...a 2p.m. kickoff. Clear and cool is in store for Saturday night at 6p.m. in Baton Rouge for the Tigers-Razorbacks game. I'll get specific about temperatures for each game later in the week.

It is possible that we could make through the entire Thanksgiving holiday weekend without any rain? This is not a foregone conclusion by any means, and it is likely that we will see the makings of our next storm system developing over the weekend. Models suggest initiation of an onshore flow developing late Saturday, and becoming more pronounced Sunday with the controlling ridge centered over the Eastern Gulf coast. Air mass modification should be in place on Sunday as many people head home. Depending on the timing and strength of the next system, some rain chances may have to be introduced before day's end, but I will leave it out for now. Nevertheless, I'd expect clouds to begin increasing during the day Sunday. It should still be a bit cool in the morning with lows back into the mid 40s with the return flow in place while afternoon highs reach the mid to upper 60s. It is far too early to get specific about the next significant rain maker for the forecast area, but this looks to come just beyond the realm of this forecast period beginning next Monday, 30 November. There is a wide range of solutions as to how its timing and intensity. There is also some wonderment as to what kind of system it will be. There is a general idea that it may another Gulf low situation at first, eventually phasing into another cold front. Either way, all signals point to a significant rainfall event to round out the month. This may carry over into the first of December, and the start of meteorological winter. The overall pattern for early December favors cold and wet, very typical of El Nino around these parts.


Tropics: Nada. Just a little over a week left in the season now.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH    48/72   50/70   48/64   0 0 0 20 0 0
LFT     54/73   49/71   47/64  0 0 0 30 20 0
BPT    48/73   55/71   49/65   0 0 0 20  0 0
AEX   53/71   48/68   44/62   0 0 0 30 20 0
POE   51/72   49/69   45/63   0 0 0 30 20 0
ARA  55/73    51/72   48/65   0 0 0 20 20 0 


*Dense Fog Advisory until 9a.m. CST Monday.*

Tonight...Becoming Clear with areas of dense og forming overnight. More dense to the South and West. Visibilities less than 1/4 mile towards morning. Low 48. Calm wind.

Monday...Areas of fog dissipate by mid-morning otherwise Sunny. High 72. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Monday Night...Clear, but becoming Partly Cloudy towards morning. Low 50. SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tuesday...Partly Cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms afternoon. High 70. SSE wind 10-15, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty late.

Tuesday Night...Clearing, Windy, and Cooler. Low 48. NNW wind 10-15 mph and gusty.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 64 NNW wind 10-15 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity


Monday
11-23-09

Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 5-10


Tuesday
11-24-09

Low: 50
High: 70
Rain: 20%
Wind: SSE 15-20/NNW 15-20


Wednesday
11-25-09

Low: 48
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Thursday
11-26-09
Thanksgiving Day

Low: 43
High: 63
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15


Friday
11-27-09

Low: 38
High: 61
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10


Saturday
11-28-09

Low: 39
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


Sunday
11-29-09

Low: 44
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: SSE 10-15


...Marine Forecast...


Tonight...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet.

Monday...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Areas of dense fog with visibility 1 nm or less in the morning. Visibility 1 nm or less in the morning.

Monday Night...East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.

Tuesday...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.

Tuesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. A slight chance of showers.

Wednesday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.


...Tide Data...

Monday Tides @ Calcasieu Pass

Low:    12:38p.m.
High:      8:55p.m.


...Toledo Bend...
   172.46'


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Low:               50
Normal Low:  48
Record Low:  29-1898
High:              61
Normal Low: 48
Normal High: 69

Rainfall
Today:                          0.00"
Month to Date:             1.92"
Normal Month to Date: 3.35"
Year to Date:              63.86"
Normal Year to Date: 51.33"
Record:                        3.11"-1979


Sunrise Monday:         6:45a.m.
Sunset Monday:          5:14p.m.


Monday Hunting Times:  6:15a.m.-5:44p.m.


...Lunar Table...

First Quarter- Tuesday November 24

Full Moon- Wednesday December 2

Last Quarter- Wednesday December 9

New Moon- Wednesday December 16


Good night and God bless!
-DM-