Friday, October 30, 2009

Back Edge of the Rain Slowly Creeping Eastward...Nearing Lake Charles...Great Stretch of Weather Commences Saturday...

Friday, October 30, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What a miserable day! Rain and Cold..most people would probably agree, it's one of the worst kinds of weather. The persistent light to moderate and occasionally heavy rainfall throughout the day has all been in the wake of the strong cold front which moved through this morning. Rainfall haven't been as serious as models depicted, thank God, however, there's still been some flooding problems throughout the day mainly across Western and Northern sections of the forecast area with some road closures across Beauregard and Vernon Parishes. Temperatures have dropped into the 50s area wide, as the front has exited the Eastern extremity of the forecast area. A very sharp temperature gradient existed across the forecast area earlier today as the front took its own sweet time reaching Acadiana. There was a 20 degree temperature difference between the Lake Charles and Lafayette reporting site. The front has accelerated somewhat this afternoon, and is currently moving across SE Louisiana nearing New Orleans up to Slidell, and extending further Northward into Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama. The front will continue its Eastward progression overnight.

The problem for us today has been the lagging upper level feature associated with this system as well as deep Pacific moisture streaming in via the Subtropical Jet Stream from Old Mexico. With the lagging upper level low, a layer of warm air exists aloft. This overrunning has kept the persistent rain and embedded thunderstorms across the area today as an instability max hung back over the area in the wake of the front. The flooding threat will decrease this evening as the rain finally ends slowly but surely. It will take some time for the rains to end in Acadiana, but all rain should be over with by midnight. Timing for the end of the rain here in the Lake Charles area should be between  6 and 7p.m. or so....just in time for all the High School Football games. At present, the back edge of the rain runs along a SW-NE oriented line from near Johnson Bayou to Vinton to Fort Polk to Monroe. While the rain isn't welcome by any means, we certainly dodged the bullet on the severe weather side of things. Severe weather occurred ahead of the front last night in the Shreveport-Bossier City area, and there has been some across portions of Mississippi and Alabama today. Conditions will improve markedly overnight.

As the rain ends this evening, the overcast conditions will persist, but the clearing line is in Central Texas, and will be encroaching on SE Texas before too long. As the upper level kicker finally gets the extra push it needs to pull away, the clearing line will progress Eastward overnight bringing clear skies into the forecast area overnight. The clouds may still be present after sunrise over Acadiana, but clouds will clear out across the entire area by mid-morning Saturday. Underneath, the low clouds this evening some patchy light rain or drizzle is possible, but widespread rain is not expected. Along with some rain gear, a jacket or sweater will be needed if you are going out to a game tonight as CAA continues. Temperatures will drop into the mid 40s by morning, with temperatures remaining in the 50s throughout the ball games.

The only issue for the rest of the forecast period after tonight will be river flooding which I will address over the weekend. High pressure takes control of the weather beginning Saturday for Halloween. This will give us our 3rd straight beautiful weekend in a row. A CAA regime will continue with a dry NW flow established at the surface, which is exactly what we need to dry out the saturated grounds With high pressure building in, winds will slacken from where they were today, generally 10 mph or less. An awesome day is in store to close out October 2009 with high temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70. It will be quite cool for all Halloween activities on Saturday night with temperatures in the 60s early but falling into the 50s quickly once the sun goes down. Great weather is in store for all area college games as well. McNeese plays on the road against Nicholls State in Thibodaux with a 1p.m. kickoff and skies should become sunny during the game with a temperature around 66 at kickoff and 64 by game's end. LSU hosts in-state rival Tulane at 7p.m. in Baton Rouge. Skies should be clear with a kickoff temperature of 60, falling to 53 by game's end.

You'll like the rest of the forecast period as well. Sunday through next Friday offers no rain chances...that's right, no rain whatsoever, so we'll definitely have some much needed drying time. It'll be a good time to wash the car too, pick a day. A welcomed pattern shift is established across the Gulf coast in the wake of today's front, and a series of re-enforcing high pressures will be the dominant weather feature through next week helping to keep us on the dry side. Cool nights and pleasant days are on tap. Low temperatures will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s each morning with a dry front scheduled to arrive at mid-week, knocking temperatures back a few degrees after a modest warm up at the beginning of the week. High temperatures will be fairly uniform each day as well with upper 60s to mid 70s for maximums through Friday. Long range indications are that next week may offer a continuation of the pleasant November weather, with no sign of rain chances on the horizon for at least 10 days...certainly a welcome change!


Tropics: Quiet, and this will remain the case as we head into the final month of hurricane season 2009. The strengthening El Nino will continue to be the story.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH 47/68   45/70  45/71   30 0 0 0 0 0
LFT  50/67   45/69  45/70   70 0 0 0 0 0
BPT  49/69   46/71  46/71     0 0 0 0 0 0
AEX 45/66   43/68  44/70   40 0 0 0 0 0
POE  46/66  43/68  44/70   20 0 0 0 0 0
ARA  51/69  47/70  46/71  80 0 0 0 0 0

*Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7p.m.*

Tonight...Cloudy and Cool with a 30% chance of rain early, ending with Decreasing Cloudiness overnight. Low 47. NNW wind 10 mph.

Saturday...Sunny. High 68. North wind 5-10 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 45. Light North wind.

Sunday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 5 mph.

Sunday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 45. Calm wind.

Monday...Sunny. High 71. NE wind 5-10 mph.


Drew's 7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween







Low: 47
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10

Sunday
11-1-09
All Saint's Day
Daylight Savings Time Ends...Fall Back







Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5

Monday
11-2-09







Low: 45
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10

Tuesday
11-3-09







Low: 51
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE/NE 5-10

Wednesday
11-4-09







Low: 48
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 10-15

Thursday
11-5-09







Low: 50
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10

Friday
11-6-09







Low: 53
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


...Marine Forecast...

*Small Craft Advisory until 7p.m.*

Tonight...North winds 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight.. Seas 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.

Saturday...North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.

Sunday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.

Sunday Night...Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Monday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...

Saturday Tides:

Low:  7:48a.m.  8:24p.m.
High: 12:14a.m. 2:13p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...
Low:                52
Normal Low:   54
Record Low:   30-1910
High:               79
Normal High:  76
Record High:  89-1922

Rainfall
Today:                             2.21"
Month to Date:              14.86"
Normal Month to Date:   3.81"
Year to Date:                61.84"
Normal Year to Date:   47.85"
Record:                          3.40"-1907

Sunrise Saturday:     7:26a.m.
Sunset Saturday:      6:26p.m.


Happy Halloween & Have a Good Weekend!!!
God Bless!
-DM-

Severe Weather Threat Very Minimal, Flood Threat Still on Track...

Thursday, October 29, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The main rain event is just about to move into SW Louisiana. Thankfully, the threat for severe weather is very minimal at this time. The highest threat for severe weather will remain to the North of our area over North Louisiana and South Arkansas, but even it is to a lesser degree than earlier this afternoon. What a day for the Shreveport-Bossier City area as well other parts of the ARKLATEX with multiple tornadoes and serious flash flooding. I will have more on that in the coming days. The system has certainly taken its own sweet time moving into the forecast area with very little in the way of rain across the area today. Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming more widespread over the Western half of the forecast area, and this trend will continue overnight with the main squall line moving into SW Louisiana after midnight. The strong winds of earlier today has subsided a bit, but it will remain windy overnight with gusts over 20 mph at times. Unseasonably warm temperatures will remain in place until frontal passage. Temperatures are holding in the upper 70s at this hour, and won't drop much until the front passes, when they'll quickly fall into the 60s. The front has passed Houston, and its down to 60 over just to give you an idea. The heavy rain threat remains the big weather story, and the Flash Flood Watch remains in affect for all areas except Acadiana. 3-6" of rain is expected across SW Louisiana with locally higher amounts, while lesser amounts are expected across Acadiana roughly 2-4" for Lafayette and vicinity. Flash Flood Warnings will likely come later on tonight as the heavy rain begins to fall, and while I have stated that the severe weather threat is minimal, an isolated severe storm producing damaging wind or a tornado can't be completely ruled out with a great deal of instability still in place. Aside from the flash flooding threat from the heavy rain, a coastal flood threat continues into Friday as well. Strong Southerly winds have resulted in higher than normal astronomical tides, and caused tidal back up as well. Water levels will rise along the coast from Vermilion Bay in SW Louisiana through Jefferson County in SE Texas, and tides will run about 1-2' above normal ahead of the front. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for this reason. The coastal flood threat will end as the front passes, and winds shift from onshore to offshore. Once the flooding threats end, our attention will turn to a river flooding situation next week, but we'll examine that in future forecasts.





















































The flood threat will continue through the day Friday as rains continue for the entire area as a copious amount of instability remains in place with such a dynamic system moving across the country. The severe weather threat will end with frontal passage, but there could still be heavy rain at times behind the front. The front should move slowly East tonight reaching Beaumont shortly between midnight and 2.a.m., Lake Charles between 4a.m. and 6a.m., and Lafayette between 8a.m. and 10a.m. Friday. Overrunning rains will persist behind the front as the large supporting upper level low on the back side of the system remains to our NW, and a pocket of warm, moist air overrides the cooler air at the surface. It will be a raw day as well on Friday with temperatures falling into the 50s by late afternoon. After highs well up into the 80s on Thursday, it will be a sharp contrast in 24 hours. Morning temperatures will vary across the forecast area from near 60 across SE Texas and up towards Alexandria to near 70 around Lafayette and New Iberia. Strong CAA will take over behind the front, and temperatures will fall in response to this process. Rain will be widespread for the morning into the afternoon hours, before the rain begins to taper off as mid and upper level drying finally begins. Rain chances will be maintained into the Friday night period as I can't guarantee that all of the rain will be over with for High School Football, but I do expect that the majority of it will be with the exception of Acadiana. Intermittent light rain or drizzle will be possible for Friday night, but the widespread persistent steady rains will be over with at this time. Cool and windy conditions will occur as well under strong CAA. Expect low temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 40s by Saturday morning while gusty NNW winds continue at 15-20 mph decreasing to 10-15 mph overnight.
















Beyond Friday, the forecast is shaping up very nice. Saturday will be cool and dry perhaps with some lingering clouds early, but for the most part a Sunny day is expected. Under a CAA regime, high temperatures will recover into the mid 60s. Halloween night offers a clear and chilly forecast with temperatures in the 50s for the evening and with the breeze it'll feel more like the upper 40s. Eventual overnight lows will be in the mid 40s. The Halloween forecast is a dry one, but no doubt it will be quite muddy with all of the rain from tonight and Friday. November starts on Sunday, and it will start on a nifty note with a large high pressure building in. Expect a Sunny day with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 after a pleasantly chilly start in the mid 40s, so it's going to feel great heading off to church.

A pattern shift is established across much of the contiguous United States in the wake of this sharp trough, and this will set up perfectly for us next week. High pressure will control the remainder of the forecast area Monday through Thursday with beautiful weather each day and seasonable temperatures. Cool mornings with lows ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s are expected during this time, while afternoon highs extend from the upper 60s to mid 70s. No mention of rain is in the forecast beyond Friday night...how about that? It should be a much needed period to dry out. It is possible that we might make it through the entire week next week without a chance of rain...wouldn't that be something after the unbelievably wet pattern we've been in? Long range models indicate a couple of strong systems will affect us over the first half of November, but if and when is shear speculation at this point, and it's not a set forecast that's for sure, just a casual gander out beyond the scope of the forecast period. Stay tuned throughout the day for any severe weather and flood updates, but again I believe this will predominantly be a flood threat for SW Louisiana and SE Texas. I would urge you to have a plan of action, and to also have some way of being informed of the latest weather information whether it be contacting me, NOAA Weather Radio, local TV or radio, etc.


Tropics: Quiet.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:


LCH  79/57    47/67   45/70     100 90 30 0 0 0
LFT   79/61    48/68   45/70     80 100 40 0 0 0
BPT   60/56    49/69   46/72     100 80 20 0 0 0
AEX  79/55    45/65   43/68     100 90 20 0 0 0
POE  70/55    46/66   44/69     100 90 20 0 0 0
ARA  79/62    49/69   47/71    80 100 40 0 0 0


*Flash Flood Watch in effect through Friday.*


*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Friday.*


Tonight...Cloudy & Windy with Showers & Thunderstorms Likely. Heavy rainfall expected with 2-4" of rain expected with isolated amounts up to 6". An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes the main threat. Turning Cooler Late. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s early, falling to near 60 behind the front in the early morning hours. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 15-20 mph and gusty towards sunrise.


Friday...Cloudy, Windy, and Much Cooler with Rain & Thunderstorms Likely. Heavy rainfall at times. 1-2" of additional rain expected. Temperatures falling into the upper 50s in the afternoon. Rain tapering off to intermittent light rain or drizzle late. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty, decreasing to 10-15 mph late. Chance of rain 90. Total rainfall amounts from tonight through Friday afternoon 3-6" with higher amounts up to 8".

Friday Night...Cloudy, and Windy and Cool with a 30% chance of light rain or drizzle early. Decreasing Cloudiness overnight becoming Clear toward morning. Low 47. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday...Sunny. High 67. NNW wind 10-15 mph.

Saturday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 45. Light NNW wind.

Sunday...Sunny. High 70. North wind 5-10 mph.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Friday
10-30-09







Low: 57 (Falling throughout the day)
High: 79 (Midnight)
Rain: 90%
Wind: NNW 15-20

Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween







Low: 47
High: 67
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15

Sunday
11-1-09
All Saint's Day
Daylight Savings Time Ends...Fall Back







Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10



Monday
11-2-09







Low: 46
High: 71
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10

Tuesday
11-3-09







Low: 48
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10

Wednesday
11-4-09







Low: 51
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10

Thursday
11-5-09







Low: 54
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: E 5-10


...Marine...

*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Friday.*

*Small Craft Advisory in effect.*

Synopsis...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED LUNAR TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE.

Tonight...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers and thunderstorms.

Friday...West winds 20 to 30 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Friday Night...North winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight. A chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Saturday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

Sunday...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.


...Tide Data...

Friday Tides:

Low:   7:31a.m.  7:38p.m.
High: 12:09a.m.  1:19p.m.


....Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Thursday, October, 29, 2009

Low:                 73
Normal Low:    54
Record Low:    33-1910
High:                83
Normal High:   76
Record High:   89-1915

Rainfall:
Today:                           Trace
Month to Date:             12.65"
Normal Month to Date:   3.68"
Year to Date:                59.63"
Normal Year to Date:   47.72"
Record:                          5.70"-1918

Sunrise Friday:               7:26a.m.
Sunset Friday:                6:27p.m.


Happy Halloween!
Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Thursday, October 29, 2009

We're still in a holding pattern on this Thursday afternoon, as we await the nasty weather tonight. Not much activity across the forecast area at this time, but showers and thunderstorms are becoming more widespread and organizing into SW to NE oriented lines running from near Houston to Shreveport. This is all ahead of the front which will only slowly trudge our way during the overnight hours. Heavy rain and damaging winds will be the main threat as the presence of a very strong low-level Jet. The gusty winds will continue across the forecast area through the evening.

The greatest tornado threat looks to be setting up to our North across the ARKLATEX region. Some tornadic cells are ongoing North of Shreveport and El Dorado, Arkansas. Another tornadic cell was indicated by radar between Woodville and Lufkin, Texas. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out across our forecast area with the presence of wind shear, but the highest shear environment exists over the aforementioned area closest to an attendant surface low along the advancing front. At this time, there is no change in the early watches and advisories that I gave you.

While the greatest tornado threat should be to our North, the flash flood threat is about equal for the forecast area. All indications are that we're still on track for 3-6" of rainfall with higher amounts up to 8" possible somewhere in the forecast area mainly to the N and W of Lake Charles. Lighter amounts will occur over Acadiana, but even up to 5" is possible across that area through Friday evening. The severe weather threat will end early in the early morning hours of Friday with the passage of the front, but the rain will continue through much of Friday as an overrunning situation sets up.

The most likely time frame for severe weather across SW Louisiana will be from around 10p.m. until 6a.m. Friday ending from West to East as the front progresses through the area. While cool air will filter in at the surface behind the front, warm moist air will ride up over the top of the surface cool air, and a good deal of instability will remain in place through Friday. This will keep the threat of heavy rainfall in place until late the day when drier air moves in at all levels, finally putting an end to the persistent stratiform precipitation. Conditions will markedly improve Friday night just in time for all the football games. The weekend looks great with cool sunshine expected both days. More complete details later tonight as the storms head our way.

-DM-

Severe Weather Event Beginning to Unfold....

Thursday, October 29, 2009

It is a very windy day across the forecast area as the intense storm system begins to impact the region. The gusty winds are indicative of the wind shear, that I have talked about over the last couple days. Non-convective wind gusts have been well into the 30-35 mph range, and could approach 40 mph at times this afternoon. Sustained winds are in the 20-25 mph range at this hour. The atmosphere is in a very volatile state with a very warm, moist unstable air mass in place with temperatures well up into the lower 80s across the area, and dew points in the mid 70s. The only thing lacking at the moment is shower and thunderstorm activity itself, but with these temperatures the convective temperature should be achieved over the next couple of hours, thus breaking the cap currently in place in the upper levels. Showers and thunderstorms have developed downstream in the vicinity of Houston, extending into the ARK-LA-TEX region. This area will continue to fill in and intensify as the afternoon progresses.

The area continues to be highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman. The tornado threat will exist for the entire area through tonight, but that being said, I believe the greatest risk for tornadoes will be in the ARK-LA-TEX region closer to the advancing surface low. The greatest risk for a tornado across SW Louisiana will come in the overnight hours...very bad timing for that. The flood threat will materialize later this afternoon, and continue through Friday. The severe weather threat will end from West to East on Friday as the front progresses through the area.

A plethora of watches exists at this hour across the region with a New Tornado Watch having just been issued for portions of the area. Following is a run down of the current advisories, and graphics from the SPC.

The first image is the Severe Weather Outlook for Day 1. 














The next set of images (3 maps) are the break down of severe weather categories: The probability of tornadoes, followed by hail, and damaging winds.









































A Tornado Watch has been issued for a large portion of Louisiana and SE Texas until 2Z Friday (9p.m. Thursday). Here's a graphical representation of this watch. It doesn't include parishes along and south of I-10 nor the Acadiana Parishes. The watch runs along a line from Houston to Monroe. It includes Beauregard and Vernon Parishes on the Louisiana side of the forecast area, and Jasper, Tyler, and Newton Counties in the SE Texas portion of the forecast area.

















 From the National Weather Service Lake Charles, here's a list of the current advisories in effect for the foreast area.

*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Friday for Jefferson and Orange County in SE Texas, and Calcasieu, Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes in SW Louisiana.*

*Flash Flood Watch in effect for all of SE Texas and SW Louisiana through Friday.*

*Tornado Watch in effect until 9p.m. for Beauregard and Vernon Parishes, and Jasper, Tyler, and Newton Counties in SE Texas.* A watch will likely be issued for the rest of the forecast area later on this evening.

*Lake Wind Advisory in effect for the entire forecast area through 10p.m. tonight.*

More updates to come throughout the afternoon. Stay tuned and stay safe!!!

-DM-

Quick Turnaround Has Begun In Advance of Major Storm...Heavy Rain & Severe Weather Still on Track through Friday...

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...All signs continue to point to trouble tonight. A very quick turnaround is underway after a very short-lived drying trend, low-level moisture is increasing with a vengeance tonight. After a dry day with some sunshine, clouds have increased in earnest tonight and a pre-warm frontal atmosphere has enveloped the forecast area tonight. After a cool start with readings in the lower 50s, it was a warm afternoon with highs approaching 80. As of this moment, a few showers have developed across the forecast area with heavier activity over the Gulf as the warm front begins to lift Northward towards the forecast area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will move inland overnight as a strong WAA pattern continues, and the risk of rain will increase after midnight. Temperatures will be much warmer than last night, and they may actually begin rising once again overnight. The actual low will be near the current readings in the lower 70s with temperatures holding steady or rising a bit overnight. Rain chances will increase proportionally overnight with about a 30-40% chance before midnight increasing to 50-60%. after midnight. The warm front will lift through the forecast area overnight, and the entire forecast area will be in the warm sector by morning. With the warm front lifting Northward, a few thunderstorms will develop, and there will be a potential for some of these to reach severe limits. This is a pretty common occurrence with warm fronts. Another sign of the changing weather tonight is the strong wind. Southerly winds are intensifying as pressures fall across the forecast area in response to the deepening trough, and a fairly strong anticyclone over the SE U.S. The wind will continue to intensify on Thursday. Some minor coastal flooding will be possible as well as the strong Southerly winds cause tidal back up along the SW Louisiana coast; more on this in a bit. A more significant severe weather threat hangs in the balance for Thursday afternoon through early Friday. Tonight's rain will be just the beginning of a prolonged heavy rain and severe weather event.

In a situation like this, it is prudent to break it down day by day, and that is what I'll do, starting with Thursday. Conditions will worsen throughout the day with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected during the morning transitioning to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as Jet Stream energy out ahead of the main trough sends upper level disturbances across our area from West to East. At the same time, cyclogenesis will occur in the Southern Plains, and this will only help to energize the atmosphere. A very strong Jet Stream with 70-80 kt. winds aloft will create wind shear. The end result of this will be the threat for severe weather especially during the afternoon through overnight hours. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats, and I would expect a Tornado Watch to be issued for all or part of the forecast area at some point during the day. Winds will increase throughout the day as well with the strengthening storm system out West. Some gusts close to 40 mph will be possible with sustained winds over 20 mph throughout the day. As the surface low moves further East, and the trough rounds the base of the Rockies, instability in the atmosphere will increase, thus increasing the likelihood of severe weather. I will talk more on the severe weather threat in just a moment. Heavy rainfall is expected with such a high moisture content in place with the vigorous WAA pattern in place. A Flash Flood is in effect beginning Thursday morning, and will remain in effect into Friday. Several inches of rain will occur across the area, and many areas will see totals in excess of 5" with the highest amounts possibly exceeding 10" before this event is over. All of this rain will not be limited to Thursday, and there is virtually no skill in pinpointing exactly where the heaviest rain axis will be. Based on forecast models, the highest rainfall totals will be over the Western half of the forecast area from Lake Charles to Beaumont and from the coast to Toledo Bend. Certainly a heavy rain, and flood threat will occur across the entire forecast area, but based on current projections lighter amounts will occur to the East of Lake Charles. The soil is saturated across the entire area, so it won't take much rain at all to aggravate the flooding situation especially in SW Louisiana and SE Texas where the heaviest rains fell on Monday. A graphic showing rainfall accumulation through Saturday follows.















The severe weather threat reaches its maximum potential in the Thursday night time frame as the strongest Jet energy moves into the forecast area just ahead of the front. Rich Gulf air will be firmly entrenched with dew points exceeding 70 degrees across the forecast area. This is more than sufficient to support severe thunderstorms. The cold front will be sliding ESE across Texas, and be nearing SE Texas before midnight Friday. Out ahead of this line, a supercell environment may exist, that is, individual thunderstorms that become severe. Any storm that does develop in the pre-frontal warm sector will have the chance to reach severe limits, and if it bumps into an area of higher wind shear, some tornadoes are likely. Supercell thunderstorms produce the majority of all tornadoes. A squall line will initiate along the front across Texas, and move Eastward into the forecast area overnight. It should be noted here, that this line will deceivingly appear to be racing towards our area as it is effected by a faster upper level low and steering currents over Texas in closer to the deepening trough. However, as the line moves to the East the MCS will begin slow down and possibly stall out somewhere in or very near the forecast area as the steering currents collapse with the system bumping into the strong SE U.S. anticyclone. An environment that favors multiple lines is possible as embedded disturbances continue to eject out from the main system. Therefore, the highest risk of flooding and severe weather will come overnight Thursday in a 12 hour window from 6p.m. Thursday to 6a.m. Friday. Warm temperatures will remain for Thursday and Thursday night with highs reaching near 80 degrees while temperatures Thursday night only drop back to near 70. I do expect the highest rains to occur Thursday night, and at this time I will forecast the highest risk for severe weather in the forecast area to run along and North of the I-10 corridor as the best dynamics will be displaced a bit further inland from the Gulf of Mexico. I believe the heaviest rain axis will run along a SW to NE line from Houston to Lake Charles to Monroe. I strongly urge everyone to very vigilant of the weather these next couple of days. I recommend having a plan in place should flooding or severe weather occur in your area. It is a good idea to have a NOAA Weather Radio in your home, it will alert you when severe weather is expected to affect your parish or county. If you don't have a Weather Radio then I would suggest leaving on your TV or radio Thursday night when you go to sleep so you have some way of knowing what's going on. I also encourage you to text or call me if you have any weather related questions or comments...anytime day or night! I will be up all night Thursday night if I have to be, but I promise you I am totally committed to being here to serve you. I have once again included the SPC's graphic highlighting the risk of severe weather for Thursday and Thursday night.















For Friday, the system continues to dominate our weather, and models show one very hesitant system. The front will slowly trudge through the forecast area as the steering currents will favor a gradual Eastward progression. However, once the front pushes through this will not mark the end of the rain. Models indicate that while the front will push through Friday morning, the dynamics to produce heavy rain and some thunderstorms will remain in place with copious amounts of instability remaining in place across the forecast area. The severe threat and heaviest rainfall threat should shift Eastward into Acadiana at this time, but the flooding threat will continue for all of the forecast area. Another 1-2" of rain is expected on Friday as the system slowly pushes out of our area. We will switch from a very strong WAA regime to a CAA regime in the wake of the front on Friday, and as a result temperatures will be at their highest early in the morning, before falling steadily throughout the day. We'll see readings near 70 early falling through the 60s during the day. Rain will continue throughout the day, and be heavy at times as a period of overrunning is expected behind the sharp trough and cold front. Models keep delaying the departure of the rain, and now most of them keep lingering showers into Saturday morning, but I am reluctant to call for this at this point. However, that being said, I will extend the rain chances into Friday night based on the model output. This means that there may very well be rain around for High School Football, and the fields will certainly be muddy if not flooded. A very serious flooding situation could develop before all of this is over. Conditions slowly improve Friday night with rain tapering off from widespread to intermittent as drier air in the upper levels finally moves in as the trough gets an extra kick from a strong area of high pressure moving out of the Rockies. Overnight lows for Friday will be well down into the 50s. It will remain windy as well for Friday with sustained winds over 20 mph once again with gusts over 30 mph, but out of the NNW instead of SSE. This should end the threat of coastal flooding. Our attention then will turn to a river flooding situation which will likely extend into next week.

Saturday-Sunday...Drastic improvement! Clouds will linger early in the day, but clearing should occur during the day. It will remain windy and be much cooler with highs in the mid 60s at best, but depending on how long clouds linger it could barely reach 60. I will forecast ample sunshine by the afternoon hours on Saturday, and it should be a beautiful evening for Halloween. It will be cool with lows down into the 40s that night. Winds will be gusty once again on Saturday on the order of 15-20 mph as a tight pressure gradient remains in place behind the departing system. High pressure will dive SE out of the Red River Valley, and anchor over Central Texas by Saturday night resulting in relaxing winds. For Sunday, a beautiful start to November is expected with high pressure in control. After a cool start with temperatures in the mid 40s, afternoon highs will be very comfortable near 70.

For the rest of the forecast period, Monday through Wednesday....A much needed drying period will be present as the large anticyclone controls the weather, and slowly moves from West to East across the Gulf coast. Temperatures will only slowly moderate with 40s and 50s for lows, and 70s for highs for each day Monday through Wednesday. No rain is expected during this time. Looking to the extended, the dry period should continue through much of the first week of November.  A return flow may return around a week from Friday as the high shifts into the SE U.S. The next rain maker may affect us over the weekend of November 7-8, but that is shear speculation at this point. The most important thing for us right now is to concentrate on the next couple of days.


Tropics: Quiet.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH 72/81  61/72  50/64   60 100 100 100 70 0
LFT  72/82  64/73  52/62   60 100 100 100 70 0
BPT  75/82  60/72  51/66   60 100 100 100 70 0
AEX 69/80  56/66  47/59   40   90 100 100 70 0
POE 70/80  57/66  48/60   40   90 100 100 70 0
ARA 74/81  65/75  54/63   70 100 100 100 70 0


*Flash Flood Watch in effect through Friday.*

*Coastal Flood Advisory in effect through Friday.*

*Lake Wind Advisory in effect on Thursday.*

Tonight...Cloudy, Windy, and Much Warmer. Scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous late. Heavy rainfall possible at times. Temperatures holding steady or rising a few degrees between 70 and 75. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Cloudy, Windy, and Unseasonably Warm with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some severe storms possible with locally heavy rainfall expected. Rainfall amounts 1-3". High 81. SSE wind 20-30 mph with gusts to near 40 mph. Chance of rain 100%.

Thursday Night...Cloudy, Windy, and Continued Unseasonably Warm with showers & thunderstorms likely. Severe weather possible with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall expected with rainfall amounts 3-4". Low 72. SSE wind 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Chance of rain 100%.

Friday...Cloudy, Windy, and Turning Cooler with rain and thunderstorms likely. Severe storms possible early, and heavy rain likely at times throughout the day. High 72 then temperatures falling to 61 during the day. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20-25 mph and gusty before noon. Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall totals 1-2". Storm total rainfall amounts 5-10".

Friday Night...Cloudy, Windy, and Cooler with rain likely during the evening tapering off to light rain or drizzle overnight. Low 50. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.

Saturday...Decreasing Cloudiness, becoming Sunny by afternoon. Cool and Windy. High 64. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Thursday
10-29-09







Low: 72
High: 81
Rain: 100%
Wind: SSE 20-30

Friday
10-30-09







Low: 61
High: 72
Rain: 100%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-25

Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween







Low: 50
High: 64
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 15-20

Sunday
11-1-09
All Saint's Day
Daylight Savings Time Ends...Fall Back






Low: 45
High: 68
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15

Monday
11-2-09







Low: 47
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10

Tuesday
11-3-09







Low: 48
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10

Wednesday
11-4-09







Low: 50
High: 73
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNE 5-10


...Marine...

The impinging storm will create a very strong Southerly flow across the forecast area, and this will result in higher tide levels through Friday. Minor coastal flooding is expected with water levels possibly high enough to cover Highway 82 in Cameron Parish.

Synopsis...MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA LIES BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN WATERS BY MID-AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...CROSSING THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN EXIT THE EASTERN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES PAST THE REGION.

Tonight...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Isolated thunderstorms early in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of thunderstorms after midnight.

Thursday...South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then rain and scattered thunderstorms after midnight.

Friday...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Rain and scattered thunderstorms.

Friday Night...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.

Tide Data...

Thursday Tides:

Low:    7:25a.m.  6:51p.m.
High:  12:04a.m. 12:04p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Low:               52
Normal Low:  55
Record Low:  35-1898
High:              77
Normal High: 77
Record High:  92-1927


Rainfall:
Today:                           0.00"
Month to Date:            12.65"
Normal Month to Date: 3.55"
Year to Date:              59.63"
Normal Year to Date: 47.59"
Record:                        3.24"-1985


Sunrise Thursday:  7:25a.m.
Sunset Thursday:   6:28p.m.




Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

A Brief Respite, but Another Vigorous Storm System Will Move In Wednesday Night Bringing More Heavy Rain & Severe Storms...

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...What an incredible day on Monday at Lake Charles! Very heavy rainfall and significant flooding occurred in advance of our latest cold front. One of the wettest October days ever occurred, and a record rainfall for the date October 26 was established with 5.31" of rainfall officially at Lake Charles. With all the rainfall in the last week, October 2009 has become one of the wettest Octobers on record not only for Lake Charles, but for many reporting sites across the forecast area. These totals will only go higher in the coming days with an even stronger system hanging the balance. More on that in a moment. Here's a rundown of rainfall totals from Monday, and the monthly total for October. Also included is the ranking for the total amount in relation to all-time records, and I will indicate the wettest October of all-time for each location.

City                Monday  Month  Rank   All-Time
Lake Charles  5.31"      12.58"    4th    21.44"-2002
Lafayette        0.27"        9.76"   10th   18.27"-2002
Beaumont       1.51"      12.21"     7th   15.09"-1970
Alexandria      0.58"        9.39"   12th   16.00"-1985
New Iberia     0.27"        9.95"     4th   21.35"-1984

*The data compiled above is through Monday, October 26, 2009. Some sites had more rainfall after midnight Tuesday. With more rainfall imminent in the coming days, these totals will likely go higher, and some monthly rainfall records may be broken.


As the title evokes a short respite is expected in the wake of last night's cold front. We are currently in said respite. The majority of the day was dry and cool but a low overcast continued into the afternoon as the system continued to pull away. High pressure anchored to our NW slid to the East today, and this finally eroded the cloud cover that had enveloped the region. A very pleasant afternoon occurred across the forecast area with Mostly Sunny skies and temperatures shy of 70 degrees. Weak high pressure controls the forecast tonight, and clear skies and cool temperatures are expected with overnight minimums ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. It feels great outside with most locations already in the 50s as we speak. The only fly in the ointment overnight may be the development of some fog with all the residual moisture in place after Monday's rain. The highest prospects for fog development will be in the areas that received the heaviest rainfall Monday. Fog development will occur towards morning, and be patchy. It could be dense in a few locations, but only briefly early Wednesday morning. A very light wind will persist overnight as well.

A nice day is on tap for Wednesday with sunny skies and a pleasantly warm late October afternoon expected. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s for most locations. The brief respite will continue, but a return flow from the Gulf will commence in the afternoon as the weak anticyclone shifts eastward. By late in the day, clouds will quickly return from the South as the return flow intensifies and warm frontogenesis occurs over the offshore waters. After a nice day on Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast overnight Wednesday as the phased system moves into the area. The system is clearly visible on satellite imagery tonight with very active weather over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Lots of snow and wind out that way. The associated trough with this system will continue to sharpen as it dives to the SE towards our general vicinity. The energy associated with the Jet Stream out ahead of this large and very dynamic system will cause the cold front which came through last night to retreat Northward Wednesday afternoon, and this boundary will move onshore and across the forecast area overnight Wednesday. This will bring out the first round of showers and thunderstorms after dark Wednesday. Much warmer conditions will result as the area returns to the warm sector behind the boundary, and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Conditions will just deteriorate even further beyond Wednesday night.

Thursday & Friday...It is a certainty that a heavy rainfall and severe weather event is in the fold for the Thursday-Friday time frame, but what is uncertain is how long it will persist. Models still diverge to a great extent on the duration of the event. This is typical of an El Nino set up across the Gulf coast. Thursday's forecast is pretty simple really, rain and thunderstorms. As the sharpening trough digs to the SE and the warm front continues to lift North, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop. Cyclogenesis somewhere over the Red River Valley will also occur, adding fuel to the fire. A very fast Jet Stream aloft will create high upper level winds, and resultant wind shear across the area. A damaging wind and tornado threat is a real possibility especially later in the day Thursday as the best dynamics associated with the very complex weather system move our way. At this time, the highest risk for severe weather will likely be across the Northern half of the forecast area. Embedded disturbances in the flow out ahead of the surface low and associated cold front will aid in persistent rainfall. Flooding will be the biggest threat with this system. Heavy rains will fall on top of already completely saturated grounds. This will only exacerbate the flooding situation across the entire forecast area, and a Flood Watch will likely be issued by the National Weather Service probably Wednesday evening. Rainfall should be more scattered in nature at first, but will certainly become widespread throughout the day. The worst of the weather will likely come overnight Thursday when the severe weather threat is even more realized. The greatest dynamics and instability with the sharp trough will move directly across the area as added energy from the Subtropical Jet Stream energizes the system even further. All modes of severe weather are possible, and the greatest risk of flooding will be at this time as well. The atmosphere will be in a very volatile state as the warm sector deepens across the area. Very warm and humid air will be in place Thursday with highs reaching the lower 80s. There is almost no skill in pinpointing exactly who will get the heaviest amounts of rainfall, but average amounts across the entire forecast area should be on the order of 4-8" with higher amounts up to 10" possible. This is the total expected amount for the system from Wednesday night through Friday. Following is a rainfall accumulation forecast through Friday. A bulls eye of 6-8" is noted across SE Texas and SW Louisiana. A severe weather outlook map is also included. I will address the severe weather parameters in more detail in tomorrow's blog.
















Severe Weather Outlook for Day 3 (Thursday).

The rough weather lasts through the night Thursday, and into Friday. As I stated earlier, models differ on the timing of frontal passage, but there is more agreement tonight that the front will hang up for a bit across the area due to a strong anticyclone persisting over the SE U.S. This will keep the heavy rain and severe weather threat ongoing into Friday. Multiple rounds of severe weather are certainly possible. A nasty squall line will likely move through just ahead of the front, but in this environment several lines of showers and thunderstorms are expected out ahead of the main MCS. The very warm and moist air will continue for Thursday night into Friday until frontal passage. For Friday itself, it should be a day of transition. The heavy rain and severe weather threat will continue early in the morning ahead of the front, but as of now I expect frontal passage to occur before noon Friday. However, the rain will not shut off with frontal passage. The severe weather threat will end with frontal passage, but the rain will continue as a moist layer remains in place above the surface. The rain will only slowly taper off from there as drier air in all levels finally pushes in to scour out the moist layer. Temperatures will likely fall a bit during the day Friday as the cooler air takes over. The temperature forecast is the least of our worries at this point, but best guess is that morning temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s with temperatures only rising or a degree or two before falling back a bit in the afternoon. Some forecast models, keep an overrunning, steady rainfall going through Friday night into early Saturday, but I will forgo this solution at the moment, and call for rain to end late Friday afternoon, with just some intermittent drizzle or light rain Friday evening. Very soggy fields are expected for all the Friday Night games, but the threat of rain is minimal.

The Weekend...Conditions improve Friday night with clearing skies overnight and much cooler weather under a dry NW flow and CAA. This will set the stage for a fabulous weekend. Overnight lows will be well down into the 50s, with upper 40s across Northern sections of the forecast area. Saturday and Sunday will be beautiful days, marking the third straight nice weekend. It'll be well deserved and well earned. We'll need some time to dry out that's for sure. Very pleasant temperatures are in store with highs in the upper 60s Saturday, and lower 70s Sunday. It will be nice and cool for Halloween. I'm sure there's a plethora of activities lined up for Saturday night to celebrate Halloween, and all of them will have good weather. Expect overnight lows to drop into the middle 40s by Sunday morning. Not to be forgotten, is all the football games. Weather looks good for that too, LSU is at home vs. Tulane...Clear & Cool. McNeese on the road at Nicholls State...Sunny and Pleasant. We'll have one extra hour to enjoy the cool weather this weekend thanks to the time change Saturday night/Sunday morning. Don't forget to change your clocks, you don't want to be late for church!

Monday, Tuesday, & the Extended...The end of the forecast period looks great. Perhaps, we'll have a string of several days to dry out after this week's rains. Monday and Tuesday's forecast features some Nifty November weather with lows in the 40s and 50s, and highs in the 70s. Low humidity will be a very nice feature of these days as well, and the perfect conditions for drying out will be present. It's never a forecast, but I always like to take a gander beyond 7 days. The important thing to remember when doing so, is that you have to look for trends. The trend at this time is for a continuance of the nice fall weather for much of the first full week of November. The next weather maker is about 10-11 days out. November is often a month of wild extremes of weather, and with El Nino in place you have to figure that will be the case in 2009. We're essentially in a pattern more representative of November at this juncture. Stay tuned for all the latest on the impinging storm system!


Tropics: Quiet.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  52/78  65/81  62/64   0 0 60 90 100 80
LFT   51/78  64/82  63/66   0 0 60 80 100 80
BPT   55/79  67/81  61/64   0 0 70 90 100 70
AEX  48/78  61/80  60/61   0 0 70 90 100 80
POE  49/79   62/80  60/61  0 0 70 90 100 80
ARA  53/78  66/81  65/67   0 0 60 80 100 80


Tonight...Clear with areas of fog developing after midnight. Some areas of dense fog possible toward morning. Low 52. Light SW wind.

Wednesday...Sunny for much of the day, but clouds will increase late afternoon. High 78. SE wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Mostly Cloudy and Much Warmer with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing before midnight, and becoming numerous after midnight. A few severe storms are possible. Heavy rainfall and flooding likely. Low 65. SSE wind 10-20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Thursday...Cloudy, Windy, and Unseasonably Warm with showers and thunderstorms likely. Severe storms with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall and flooding likely. High 81. SSE wind 15-25 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 90%.

Thursday Night...Cloudy and Windy with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely. Severe storms with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible. Heavy rainfall and flooding likely. Low 62. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty becoming SSW 20-25 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 100%. Total rainfall amounts 4-8" with isolated amounts up to 10" possible for the entire event.

Friday...Cloudy, Windy, and Cooler. Rain and a few thunderstorms likely in the morning. Rain likely into the afternoon, tapering off to intermittent light rain or drizzle late afternoon. High 64. SSW wind 20-25 mph and gusty becoming NNW at 20-30 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.


7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity

Wednesday
10-28-09







Low: 52
High: 78
Rain: 0%
Wind: SE 10-15

Thursday
10-29-09







Low: 65
High: 81
Rain: 90%
Wind: SSE 15-25

Friday
10-30-09







Low: 62
High: 64
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSW/NNW 20-30

Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween






Low: 52
High: 66
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15

Sunday
11-1-09
All Saint's Day
Daylight Savings Time







Low: 45
High: 70
Rain: 0%
Wind: NW 5-10

Monday
11-2-09







Low: 45
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10

Tuesday
11-3-09







Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...West winds around 5 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then numerous showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Thursday...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday Night...South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then numerous showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Friday...North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.


Tide Data...

Wednesday Tides:

Low: 7:34a.m.  6:00p.m.
High: 10:35a.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Low:              57
Normal Low: 55
Record Low: 34-1898
High:             69
Normal High: 77
Record High: 92-1927

Rainfall:
Today:                             0.07"
Month to Date:              12.65"
Normal Month to Date:   3.43"
Year to Date:                59.63"
Normal Year to Date:   47.47"
Record:                         7.20"-1970


Sunrise Wednesday:    7:24a.m.
Sunset Wednesday:     6:29p.m.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-

Monday, October 26, 2009

Over a Month's Worth of Rainfall in Lake Charles Today, A Break is on the Way, but For How Long?

Monday, October 26, 2009

SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...Quite a deluge across the Lake Area today. The Flash Flood Watch was certainly prudent, and it will be in effect through the night for the entire forecast area. The cold front that I talked about last night made its way into the forecast area, but as it did slow it slowed to a snail's pace. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved slowly across the forecast area from W to E throughout the day. The leading edge of this activity moved across the Sabine River around noon, but didn't move into Lake Charles until just before 3:00, to give you an idea of how slow it was moving. The cold front really slowed down as it moved into SW Louisiana, as it began to feel the effects of a developing low pressure of the coast of Texas. The cold front has since passed through Lake Charles, and is encroaching on Lafayette at this hour. The very heavy rain experienced across much of Calcasieu Parish this afternoon has weakened considerably, though some heavy rain is ongoing between Jennings and Lafayette and across much of Acadiana. The heaviest rainfall overnight will be across Acadiana as the front slowly trudges through, and the surface low advances to the NE. With the surface low over the Gulf waters, moisture will continue to be pulled Northward across the forecast area. Mostly light to moderate rain and drizzle is expected in areas behind the cool front while a threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms will exist in the pre-frontal environment. Overnight lows will vary from W to E with the coolest readings across Toledo Bend to Alexandria and the warmest readings over Acadiana. Expect cooler readings under a CAA pattern in the wake of the front with lows in the lower 50s around Alexandria and Fort Polk to around 60 for lower Acadiana. Rainfall amounts overnight will average 2-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-5". It has been a very wet day for Lake Charles with officially over 5.25" of rainfall at the Lake Charles Regional Airport. Widespread flooding occurred across the area between 3 and 7p.m. Conditions have improved somewhat in the Lake Area, though it is still raining. In the cool sector, only a constant light to moderate rain is expected with up to additional 1" expected around Lake Charles. For the threat of additional rains, the Flood Watch that was issued this morning will continue until 7a.m.. Tuesday. No severe weather is expected across the forecast area, as the surface low takes a track similar to what I mentioned last night into SE Louisiana.

On Tuesday, expect conditions to improve drastically. Rain will end during the morning, and will likely be over with in the Lake Charles area by sunrise, and in the Lafayette area by mid-morning Tuesday. The back edge of the rain was slowly moving Eastward at present, and is located between Houston and Beaumont. Once the rain ends, the overcast conditions will hang tough for much of the day as a low deck extends way back into Texas behind the front. Only a slow clearing is expected, but I do believe we'll see some sunshine before the day is out. It will be on the cool side with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 60s. Drier air will continue filtering in behind the slow moving cold front and departing low pressure which will move into Mississippi during the day Tuesday. Some patchy light rain or drizzle is possible beyond sunrise Tuesday as some residual moisture lingers until the drier air becomes more significant Tuesday afternoon. Clear and cool weather is expected Tuesday night with seasonable weather for late October. Expect temperatures to drop into the mid 40s north to lower 50s at the coast. A beautiful day is on tap for Wednesday as temporary ridging takes effect. Skies should be sunny with highs in the mid 70s. This welcome respite from the rain will be short-lived as another quick turnaround commences late Wednesday.

A return flow will quickly be established Wednesday afternoon as the high pressure quickly slides to the East. This will open the Gulf full throttle once again, to increase low-level moisture in earnest Wednesday night. Clouds will quickly return with the deep moisture looming just offshore and poised to move in as soon as it's given the chance. A strong WAA pattern will take over quickly replacing the brief cool down. Scattered showers and thunderstorm development certainly can't be ruled out during the overnight hours as the low-
level onshore flow continues to intensify, and some air mass showers develop. I will maintain a dry forecast
until after midnight Thursday for the entire forecast area, with highest rain chances over SE Texas. Much
warmer temperatures are in store with the vigorous return flow in place. Expect minimums only in the low
60s.

For Thursday, more rain is expected as the next in a series of storm systems affects the area. This one is
shaping up to be stronger than today's system. I don't want to get into all the specifics of it just yet, as we're
still coming out of the first system, but it is not too early to start looking at the system more in depth. A
deepening trough coming out of the Rockies and added energy from the Jet Stream will create cyclogenesis
over Texas on Wednesday, and the surface low will move to the East along with the trailing cold front. All of
this will tap into the ample amounts of Gulf moisture across our area to produce more widespread rain and
thunderstorms. With such an amplified trough coming across, this will produce an environment more conducive for severe weather across the entire area, and it is possible that all modes of severe weather are possible at this time. As we get closer to Thursday, I will elaborate even further on the impinging system. I should also note at this time, that we will likely be under Flash Flood Watches once again as we won't have had nearly enough time to dry out from today's rain, and the ground will remain very saturated. Several inches of rainfall will be likely once again, and this only exacerbate the flooding situation across the area. It is certainly difficult to pinpoint who will receive the most rain, but it is highly possible that someone across the forecast area will receive over 5" of rain once again with this event. The timing of this event is one that should be similar to today's with the widespread rainfall moving into the forecast area during the afternoon hours eventually overspreading the entire area. The worst of the weather with this system will come overnight Thursday through early Friday. This system looks to slow down a bit as well as it moves into the forecast area, as the ridge to our east strengthens for a short time. I will attempt to narrow down a time frame for the worst of the weather as the system gets closer. A temperature forecast for Thursday and Thursday night is one that offers a big warm up with afternoon highs possibly exceeding the 80 degree mark. Mild conditions still in place for Thursday night with lows only dropping to the mid to upper 60s. The pressure gradient will strengthen across our forecast area as well in response to a strengthening low over Texas and the high pressure over the SE U.S. This will result in conditions that will be quite windy Thursday.

Friday-Sunday... At this time I will maintain a forecast of likely shower and thunderstorm activity for Friday morning as models are consistent enough in slowing down frontal passage. Severe weather and heavy rain will certainly carry over into Friday if this is the case. Conditions will improve during the day Friday with an offshore flow retuning in the wake of the front. Drier and much cooler air will replace the warm, humid air mass ahead of the front. Skies will clear during the day, as things should progress a bit faster once the front clears the area. Not much of a diurnal range is anticipated for Friday with the strengthening CAA pattern taking over. I expect highs to be just a few degrees warmer than the morning low remaining below 70. The much cooler and drier air will infiltrate the region in time for High School Football Friday night. Aside from a very soggy and muddy field, the weather should be dry and cool for the games. Temperatures will be quite cool that night down into the 40s for most locations for lows. The weekend looks great once again. It should clear and cool for all Halloween activities, and great weather for all the ball games. We'll need it to as we'll need to dry out from the two big systems this week. Highs should be in the comfortable range...the 70s for both Saturday and Sunday while overnight lows will be similar to that of Friday night in the 40s for most locations as we head into November Sunday.

Monday & the Extended...High pressure continues into early next week, and that should promise pleasant and seasonable weather for early November. Temperatures will moderate a bit as the overall flow flattens out a bit and the coolest air retreats Northward, but it will still be pleasant with 50s for lows and 70s for highs and a continuation of low humidity. The period just beyond the forecast period continues to show Pacific high pressure in control with some more pleasant weather on tap. Air mass modification will occur after that as the controlling high slips to our East, but the next weather system coming down the endless parade in an El Nino pattern will still be a few days away. I would expect an active weather pattern to continue for the first half of November. November is typically a very active weather month around here anywhere, and you have to figure with the added influence of El Nino that this will be an even more active November.


Tropics: All is quiet on the tropical front.


Preliminary Numbers & Zone Forecast:

LCH  57/67   49/75   62/81    70 40 0 0 40 80
LFT   60/69   48/75   60/82  100 60 0 0 40 70
BPT   55/68   51/76   64/83    40 20 0 0 50 80
AEX  52/65   45/75   56/80    70 30 0 0 60 90
ARA  63/71   50/75   61/81  100 60 0 0 40 70


*Flood Watch in effect through 7a.m. Tuesday.*

Tonight...Rain Likely. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1" possible. Cooler. Low 57. NNW wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 70%.

Tuesday...Cloudy and Cooler with a 40% chance of mainly light rain or drizzle in the morning. Decreasing Cloudiness in the afternoon. High 67. North wind 10-15 mph.

Tuesday Night...Clear and Cool. Low 49. Light NE wind.

Wednesday...Sunny. High 75. East wind becoming SE 5-10 mph.

Wednesday Night...Increasing Cloudiness becoming Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing overnight. Much Warmer. Low 62. SSE wind 10-15 mph. Chance of rain 40% after midnight.

Thursday...Cloudy, Warm, and Windy with Showers and Thunderstorms Becoming Likely. Some severe weather possible. Rain will be heavy at times with another 1-3" of rain expected. SSE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.


7 Day Outlook

Tuesday
10-27-09






Low: 57
High: 67
Rain: 40% AM
Wind: NNW 10-15

Wednesday
10-28-09







Low: 48
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE/SE 5-10

Thursday
10-29-09






Low: 62
High: 81
Rain: 80%
Wind: SSE 15-20

Friday
10-30-09







Low: 64
High: 66
Rain: 60%
Wind: SSW/NNW 15-20

Saturday
10-31-09
Halloween







Low: 48
High: 72
Rain: 0%
Wind: NNW 10-15

Sunday
11-1-09
All Saints Day
Daylight Savings Time...Fall Back








Low: 45
High: 74
Rain: 0%
Wind: N 5-10

Monday
11-2-09







Low: 50
High: 75
Rain: 0%
Wind: NE 5-10


...Marine Forecast...

Tonight...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rain and isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Isolated showers in the morning.

Tuesday Night...North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.

Wednesday...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 5 feet after midnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight.

Thursday...South winds 20 to 30 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.


...Tide Data...

Tuesday Tides:

Low:   5:05p.m.
High: 11:59p.m.


...Lake Charles Climate Summary...

Monday, October 26, 2009

Low:               59
Normal Low:  55
Record Low:  39-1909
High:               75
Normal High:  77
Record High:  92-1927

Rainfall:
Today:                      ***5.31"
Month to Date:             12.58"
Normal Month to Date:  3.31"
Year to Date:               59.56"
Normal Year to Date:  47.35"
Record:                         5.31"-2009


Sunrise Tuesday:     7:23a.m.
Sunset Tuesday:      6:30p.m.


Good night and God bless!
-DM-